Just wanted to share a timeline/thread
shyamd wrote:
I think consensus within current TSPA establishment is they regret recognising the previous Taleban govt without support of international powers - bad PR and guilt by association. Especially that Taleban was not inclusive last time - this created its own instability. This time TSPA want there to be inclusive govt (with TSPA at the top to veto anything big .... like GOI involvement)
TSPA has outlined 2 core national interest:
1. Vision for future of Afghanistan (particularly the Durand Line border)
2. Role of India in that region
Previous Afghan govts failed on both counts. Right from the start Afghan govt told then senior TSPA officers that they don't recognise durand line.
Also the US was setting up ANDF ORBAT to focus on Pakistan(!).
Taleban takeover of Afghanistan was a necessity in their eyes. But there is no guarantee that they can control Taleban indefinitely.... Question is what is Taleban position on points 1 and 2 above.
TSPA expectation is that instability in places like FATA, Baluchistan and other places will reduce once Taleb take over is complete
shyamd wrote:
Assessment of Security Situation post Kabul takeover
TSPA priority
- TSPA support Taleban priority firstly will be to consolidate, secure and prevent any forces that can launch a counter coup. Apparently Kabul is not completely secure and the Taleban are still continuing operations.
- Negotiations are taking place between Taleban and forces that are capable of resisting thus the general amnesty for former Afghan govt officials (to complete the coup which means the Taleban/TSPA are still worried about resistance forces)
- The other issues is that TSPA know that there are a lot of groups that are not under direct C2 of TSPA - these will need to be dealt with as well eventually
- Consensus for major powers is that as long as Taleban is truly 'inclusive' then pressure will be taken off Taleban - I believe funds of the Afghan govt have been frozen or about to be frozen
- ISI backed troops such as LeT and JeM are playing a significant role. They have two roles - keep control of Taleban gangs going lose/off the chain and prevent forces that can launch a counter coup.
GOI moves
- First priority is securing all Indian nationals, diplomats and other interests of the Sikh/Hindu community. Majority of the work was completed in 48 hours from the green light given by GOI leaders.
- The next will be to re-establish connections with key players (some of whom are in Delhi) and others in central asian states.
- GOI have a choice. Either support those ready to launch a counter coup and make the point that Taleban hold is weak/vulnerable or move to a long term strategy which is to be recon/surveillance/intel focused.
With only around 9% of indian population vaccinated GOI's primary focus is to get this fixed.
Expectation is that we'll be back to stadium murders soon.
Apparently GOI - Taleban meeting was reported in arab press (the one that MEA denied that took place). Taleban said they welcome Indian investments in infra & education as these are for the benefit of all afghans. They also said the Taliban pledged to remain neutral in the India-Pakistan conflict, especially with regard to Kashmir, and affirmed that it has its own future policy on Pakistan.
They have also pledged not to interfere in Uyghur issues in china.
shyamd wrote:
Be careful....maybe ISI want us to think that. From speaking to people I'm getting the sense all dirty business (terror training) will be shipped of to Afghanistan from places like Mansehra and PoK. TSP will follow the international community publicly...i.e. if the powers recognise, they will recognise... if they don't then TSP won't.
The impact will be TSPA will come out of FATF and look clean... they'll say all terror planning/training is happening from "ungoverned places".
Iran has close ties with many in Talebs but they aren't trusted.
UAE has approached Turkey for alliance on Afghan file.
Latest summary is:
- TSPA has sent feelers to London and DC on who may recognise the taleban govt. TSPA want to resolve Afg govt issue quickly because there is concern about refugee inflows
- KSA via former intel director Turki al Faisal is re-establishing contacts with Taleban. This is brokered via ISI. Meetings have been held with Mullah Yaqoob (Mullah omar's son) and other seniors. KSA view is better to have a taleb govt who will be more sympathetic vs Iran.
- I'm reminded that Taleban is a coalition of groups that range from anti TSPA, drug gangs, extremists, nationalists, Pro-Pakhtun ethnic groups, pro -TSP backed terror groups like Haqqani Network, former Afg govt officials... PLA is backing one faction, Iran another - particularly those in border districts with Iran... Russia also involved...(rumour has it ISKP was getting $$ from Russians...)... Sorting out and agreeing powersharing between these groups is proving a little difficult. Each person has earned their seat on table... and each country is having their rep on the table via shura council (incl. Iran)..
- Taleban are being asked to repay debts to these nation states like Russia, Iran, TSP, China who supported them over the years.
- UAE cooperating with Turkey/Qatar alliance on Afghanistan...but it's early days.
- Threat of counter coup has largely reduced..
shyamd wrote: Qatar has been shocked by how different the 'on ground' situation is compared to the promises made in Doha. Qatar, US and others in the region were promised a 'transitional' govt and preparations were seriously underway (hence why the ANA was asked to go slow or withdraw and their C2 had collapsed). The talib mil commanders on the ground ignored all of this and carried on incl. entering Kabul despite all promises by the Talib political leaders not to do so.
It is the military leaders who have the greatest influence over the situation.
Abdul Qayum Zakir (now the defence minister of the Taleb govt. He is the leader of Badri 313 ), Mullah Yaqoob (Mullah Omar's son and leader of the military movement) and Haqqani Network (ISI backed) are the key players in control of the situation. Apparently the military leaders are not cooperating with the political members like Stanekzai and others.
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GOI stating that once a permanent govt is formed towards year end, they will talk to that Talib govt..
Apparently HQN faction is dominating Kabul (Jalalabad - Kabul axis). Mullah Yaqoob has Kandahar area. Not sure if its psyops but they are saying Yaqoob and Haqqani are not cooperating wrt political settlement. Haqqani wants inclusivity with previous govt but Yaqoob not interested.
UK Foreign Min met TSP/A to discuss Afg. UK and US answer is that what was promised in Doha was not delivered and therefore we are far away from recognizing Taleban Govt.
Not sure if it’s true but ISI chief in Kabul today probably to attempt to sort things out
Latest I’m hearing is that UK is speaking to Tajik Govt to see if they can pressure Ahmad Massoud to join a future Govt in Afghanistan. (Which means TSP is promising west that Doha agreement will be implemented)…
shyamd wrote:
Latest SitRep
- GOI is implementing a strategy & plan on Afghanistan that was created earlier this year. Plan was in process of being updated during collapse.
- GOI will not recognise the Taleb govt but will maintain links via Doha and Moscow.
- Intel assessment is that TSPA will turn up temperature in LoC and J&K very soon... There is a gradual redeployment of terror groups towards LoC (with Afghans being spotted).
- Meet held between PM, Def min, Home min yesterday. Number of options have been proposed by the Nat Sec (Defence is an element of Nat Sec) team with dealing with Afghan situation... Range of issues are being managed including how GOI will secure it's interest (i.e. make sure Afghan soil is not used for terrorism which is the top priority).
- My view: Armed forces (IA/IAF) will be making preparations for deployment to somewhere in central asia in coalition with regional powers (if green light provided). I suspect Brigade level operation with some air cover. Primary task will be border security.
- Not discussed but Tajikistan has made their intent clear - they will defend the interests of the Tajik population in Afghanistan. In August, Tajikistan mobilised 100k troops and called up 100k reserves. Russia is supporting these moves and have also joined in drills and are conducting border patrols/exercises. Volunteers have joined up with the National Resistance in Panjshir (with some state sanction)
Also hearing that ANA aircraft from Tajikistan were used to attack Talib positions today in the main road/valley into Panjshir... Sub-valleys are still being held by NRF.
- Russia also calling for inclusive govt similar to UK/US. Ultimately they want someone in charge of Afghanistan and to make sure there is no terror impacting the Central Asian states
- NSA level meeting between India - Russia to be held today to discuss Afghanistan
- Russia will be conducting military drills in all states sharing border with Afghanistan. India may be joining.
Other side matters:
- There is growing feeling in some quarters in Delhi that British intel and ISI were in cahoots on trying to get DC to recognise Taleban..
shyamd wrote:Intel assessment on Afghanistan
- there is a coalition of countries with shared interests (US, UK, India, Russia, central Asian states and China) with respect to terror emanating from Afghanistan that are cooperating.
- meetings taking place more regularly.
- inclusive Govt was always going to be a challenge for the taleban. Lot of intel effort was put in to get the Ghani Govt (and previous Govs) to be inclusive… so ppl were always aware that Taleban will struggle to do this.
- intel guys are very clear that this is a blow to ops… there is no substitute to being on the ground
Delhi is viewing the current situation as a national security crisis.
TSPA are thrilled and celebrating with current situation. Lots of boasting in the region.
I’m told ordinary folks are fearful… many are moving family to Peshawar/TSP or elsewhere. General brain drain.
Couple of points to add. TSPA is shifting resources to Indo-TSP border as well.
The major concern is the economic situation as aid runs out... Taleban will be forced to increase drug production + be at the mercy of financial sponsors... India will face some of the issues.
MEA thinks we should continue infra assistance after 3 months to change Taleban policy....
West is focused on cyber & drones strikes for now.
Update:
The diplomatic position of Russia, India and others is that if Afghan soil is used to launch terror attacks - ISI/TSPA will be held responsible as they now own the problem of Afghanistan. This has been communicated to TSPA via multiple emissaries.
Like GOI, Russia does not trust ISI/TSPA/Taleban et al and will seek to ensure Afghanistan isn't used to push terrorists into the region.
Added later: I am told TSPAF fighter jets, helicopters, drones and SSG were involved in a night time raid of Panjshir valley. The silence of everyone incl. GOI means there is some understanding of some sorts...
Intel update on ISI chief visit - 14 Sept 21
- ISI chief turned up in Kabul with officials from 8 of their departments.
- the objective of the visit was to:
(a) support the establishment of the interim govt
(b) draw out the plan of the future defence and security services of the new state.
- TSPA wish to create a professional defence and security establishment at Kabul with proper equipment... (most probably chinese gear)
- The intelligence chief is TajMir Javvad. Defence will be led by
Abdulhaq Wasiq from Ghazni province.
- The new afghan military doctrine will be closely aligned to TSPA's.
- The force is expected to be a national force with cadre recruited from all ethnic groups in the country.
- 2 objectives for this force is:
(a) border protection
(b) counter terror
- The new force will be equiped by TSPA and will utilise NATO leftovers like helicopters etc.
- ISI chief was keen to integrate Badri 313 into this new establishment and make it the primary Spec Forces unit.
My view is this is similar to how the british ran the empire - let the locals govern themselves but hold control of foreign policy, Defence & security. Appoint a political resident to monitor the politics..
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Iranian FM expected to meet EAM in Dushanbe on the sidelines. He was expected to be in Delhi yesterday but they decided to just have the convo in Dushanbe instead. Speculation that EAM will meet TSP FM in Dushanbe.
Saudi delegation to arrive in Delhi this weekend to discuss Af Pak. UAE Crown Prince and PM spoke about Afghanistan last week.
Update 22/09/21
- PLA undertook recon of Bagram airbase possibly to set up an intel facility alongside Taleb/TSPA
- On US drone basing in India - GOI has asked for some conditions to be met before anything happens... Also accuracy of the drone campaign in general is being questioned.
Added later: TSPA is cool with the drone campaign as long as they get paid... Of course they will try and use it to attack the people they want bumped off.
- ISI chief visit in public to Kabul was partly to begin their internal campaign regarding promotions. Gen Faiz trying to succeed Bajwa. Campaign is in full swing.
- TSPA is deeply worried about the refugee problem (as I've stated above) and now they are even more worried. Part of the worry is that many individuals with armed training may start wrecking havoc by whoever wishes to fund and train them. think about role of TTP.
Al-Qaeda Could Strike U.S. From Afghan Base Next Year, Spies Say
“The current assessment probably, conservatively, is one to two years for al-Qaeda to build some capability to at least threaten the homeland,” Lieutenant General Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said at an intelligence conference on Tuesday.