2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 19 Nov 2021 11:36

Ayushman Kumar
@Iam_Ayushmann
·
1h
#Breaking: Revoking 3 #farmlaws is just the fulfilment of one demand. Our protest will continue for other issues of MSP & other demands.
We will meet and decide the future course of action: Darshan Pal, Farm Union Leader on
@MirrorNow

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 19 Nov 2021 11:38

I don't think this has anything to do with the UP elections (marginal at best).

IMO, it has to do with Amarinder Singh and getting back to power in Punjab. First, Modi opened the Kartapur corridor. Now this, on Guru Nanak Jayanti. Capt Amarinder met Amit Shah and must've told him to forget Punjab as long as the farm laws exist.

Now, the decks are clear for Amarinder to be in an alliance with BJP, without being called a betrayer by his people.

But yes, a huge loss of face for BJP/Modi and an emboldening of BIF. I had hopes that Modi would ban PFI/SDPI, implement CAA, NRC, deport Bangladeshis etc. That's all "poof" now. But once again, the people are to be blamed as well. Muslims protested at Shaheen Bagh against a law in which they had no stake. Hindus didn't protest *for* the law which would help their brethren. The squeaky wheel gets the grease.

chandrasekaran · Post by **chandrasekaran** » 19 Nov 2021 11:41

Prem Kumar wrote:Hindus didn't protest *for* the law which would help their brethren. The squeaky wheel gets the grease.

Saar, Hindu's gave 303 seats to BJP, absolute majority for the 2nd time - unheard of for an entire generation or two. Please stop blaming Hindu's for this too.

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 19 Nov 2021 11:42

So for a sliver of power in Punjab, they are risking UP. Feels wrong to even quote the word 'Chanakyaneeti' for this madness. And what is to guarantee that Amarinder will not cut them off just like Ajit Pawar

m_saini · Post by **m_saini** » 19 Nov 2021 11:45

Prem Kumar wrote:...But once again, the people are to be blamed as well...Hindus didn't protest *for* the law which would help their brethren.

But of course. It's always Hindus' fault whenever anything bad happens.

If you want to blame Hindus, atleast free their temples. But no, even after what 7 years of full majority for BJP/RSS, all the blame still falls on Hindus

Varuna · Post by **Varuna** » 19 Nov 2021 11:45

There is a larger picture that I'd like to speculate over. My sikh side of the family had been quite against Modi since the BIF coordinated attacks over the farm laws. Today is gurpoorab - guru nanak jayanti, and to announce it on this day has created a sea change in the perception of the average sikh. The seeds of dissent that were being sowed among the community by the BIF have evaporated. The thing the BIF doesn't count on is that underneath all our differences, we are bound by the same dharmik identity.

The reason why the "farmers" weren't relenting despite all assurances was because the BIF had a foothold and didn't want to let go of the leverage over delhi via sikh perceived disappointment and internationalization of the issue. To announce this on gurpurab, from a position of strength, after having identified and banned the backers, conveys a sense of understanding.

Regarding the laws, I think they will be back in another form after interacting with the real stakeholders of Punjab and Haryana, not the rabblerousers.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 19 Nov 2021 11:59

Wonder if this will have repercussions for CAA? What is disaffected peoples follow the same SOP as the farm law protestors?

m_saini · Post by **m_saini** » 19 Nov 2021 12:01

Varuna wrote:..The thing the BIF doesn't count on is that underneath all our differences, we are bound by the same dharmik identity.

Imo the whole dharmik identity or dharmic civilization is a very outdated concept and it feels very one-sided and forceful. We try the same thing with Nepal and it's honestly embarrassing.

Regarding the laws, I think they will be back in another form after interacting with the real stakeholders of Punjab and Haryana, not the rabblerousers.

But why weren't the real stakeholders not interacted with before? Imo, there is no silver lining out of this one, atleast not until we know exactly why they did this and why now. For now it's extremely bad optics and everyone(around me) thinks MAD have lost it.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 19 Nov 2021 12:08

If BJP has any expectation that the people who think have just won will be going with BJP after defeating it.

BJP is living in fools paradise.

In the next few days, I am looking forward to the following.

1) demands for compensation for 10s of thousands "martyers" against the black bills.

2) MSP 250 % of international prices.

3) total removal of any private company from procurement process.

4) criminal prosecutions of any one who sells produce out side of APMC.

5) free power

6) free diesel

7) free fertilizer.

waiver of all farm loans.

9) compulsory payment from the government to the farmers for sowing crops.

10) all farm labourers to be paid by the government.

11) every farmer be given a tractor and harvestor free of cost will free services every month.

Etc, etc.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 19 Nov 2021 12:11

Cain Marko wrote:Wonder if this will have repercussions for CAA? What is disaffected peoples follow the same SOP as the farm law protestors?

You can count on it.

Power belongs to those who know how to use it.

Sometimes it means that compel the population to obey your will. This government has not shown that will in this case.

You can rest assured that others will come.

m_saini · Post by **m_saini** » 19 Nov 2021 12:20

The worries over CAA etc seem a little too premature i think. We don't even know what exactly prompted this or what MAD think they can get out of this. I'd wait atleast until the dust settles before calling them names etc.

Just don't think MAD are idiots especially given their track record.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 19 Nov 2021 12:25

m_saini wrote:The worries over CAA etc seem a little too premature i think. We don't even know what exactly prompted this or what MAD think they can get out of this. I'd wait atleast until the dust settles before calling them names etc.

Just don't think MAD are idiots especially given their track record.

The worries are true and in Politics fear of the Other person winning is very important.

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 19 Nov 2021 12:28

Varuna wrote:There is a larger picture that I'd like to speculate over. My sikh side of the family had been quite against Modi since the BIF coordinated attacks over the farm laws. Today is gurpoorab - guru nanak jayanti, and to announce it on this day has created a sea change in the perception of the average sikh. The seeds of dissent that were being sowed among the community by the BIF have evaporated. The thing the BIF doesn't count on is that underneath all our differences, we are bound by the same dharmik identity.

The reason why the "farmers" weren't relenting despite all assurances was because the BIF had a foothold and didn't want to let go of the leverage over delhi via sikh perceived disappointment and internationalization of the issue. To announce this on gurpurab, from a position of strength, after having identified and banned the backers, conveys a sense of understanding.

Regarding the laws, I think they will be back in another form after interacting with the real stakeholders of Punjab and Haryana, not the rabblerousers.

A decision like this to repeal the farm laws isnt made without considering an alternate way forward. This step back means there is definately something afoot or a different approach being considered . And in all probablity, they already have secured this in the background. The captain meeting the govt and recent interactions all point to alternate channels being established
. Give the man some credit and a little bit of trust.

AkshaySG · Post by **AkshaySG** » 19 Nov 2021 12:38

The fact that they thought repealing farm laws was the best outcome for the future bodes more trouble for BJP than the actual repealing.

It says that they aren't confident of winning in UP or in 24 by focusing on growth and reforms

It also says that for all the bluster and might they weren't able to overcome the media narrative that had accompanied the protests

And finally it says that you can go against logic, block roads, stall economy, create nuisance and do whatever you feel like but just as long as you keep at it the government will eventually back down and cater to your demands.

AshishA · Post by **AshishA** » 19 Nov 2021 12:41

Almost everyone is viewing this from a politics perspective of electoral gains. Is there any chance that it was done keeping national security in mind? A burning punjab of 80s is something no one wants right now. Tikait and other others are a starting. Eventually perceived grievances will lead to a point of militancy. And this time there would be no terror targets to bomb in Pakistan.

Moreover, I may disagree with the actions of Modi. But I would never doubt his intention which many seem to be doing here right now.

chandrasekaran · Post by **chandrasekaran** » 19 Nov 2021 12:47

Above all the calculation seems to be Hindu central/right wing doesn't have any alternative other than backing us up. Time for a more extreme right wing alternative to BJP. That's the ONLY thing that will force BJP's hand

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 19 Nov 2021 12:49

Modi rss & bjp are only good to do bootlicking and chamchagiri of going to airport to recieve enemy nation's politicians.

They have noodle for spine.

This man only wants to collect awards and fame from everywhere be it west or arabs and steal the gold of Siddhi Vinayak Temple.

He has done this not to win Punjab but to sabotage Yogi in UP.

What piece of $#@€₩*

m_saini · Post by **m_saini** » 19 Nov 2021 12:53

We don't know why the laws were repealed and why now. I mean the rioters were at their full force earlier this year but GoI didn't budge but they repealed the laws *now* when all signs pointed to the broker gang agitation dying out.

Wasn't there recent news that 2 of the guys funding the protests were sent back after they landed, even after the intervention of some high profile people? Seems very strange to take such actions and then turn around and repeal the laws.

Definitely more to this story than what it seems.

AkshaySG · Post by **AkshaySG** » 19 Nov 2021 12:58

AshishA wrote:Almost everyone is viewing this from a politics perspective of electoral gains. Is there any chance that it was done keeping national security in mind? A burning punjab of 80s is something no one wants right now. Tikait and other others are a starting. Eventually perceived grievances will lead to a point of militancy. And this time there would be no terror targets to bomb in Pakistan.

Moreover, I may disagree with the actions of Modi. But I would never doubt his intention which many seem to be doing here right now.

You think this is going to stop them?... This has just given ammunition for the BIF to do the same kind of protests for every single law/action/decision of the govt they take issue with. Any short term national security improvement will be soon overshadowed by much bigger concerns

SinghS · Post by **SinghS** » 19 Nov 2021 13:05

Having repealed the farm laws, the government has option of going for ruthless & harsh crackdown on CAA and such protestors. This would build the image that the government cares for masses but won't tolerate anti-nationals.

The ball is in the Modi government's court. If they do what is right, they won't be taken as weak.

disha · Post by **disha** » 19 Nov 2021 13:17

sudarshan wrote:
disha wrote:Even I was planning to rezine from life and take sanyas. Only thing that stopped me was SHQ packing my bags readily.
That's the wrong way, one takes sanyasa without informing SHQ.

You must be newly married. Earlier SHQ used to speak to me in paragraphs which then progressed to mere lines and then words and now it is just an expression. A single expression that too. Even if the intention is not there, the truth is blurted out of me. The answers of my mind are given out even before the question is asked. It is now an aspect of the autonomous nervous system where the thoughts in the mind find a way directly to the tongue. I now am a true believer in omnipotent and omnipresence.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 19 Nov 2021 13:17

Social media is lit with a deluge of anti modi memes in just two hours, mostly from people who supported Modi. Modi supporters are furious right now.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 19 Nov 2021 13:17

naxals maoists islamist pif Christian extremists of nscn aap all will be emboldened to light thousand fires all over the country. The supporters of farm laws like rangnathan will be made a laughing stock now. rss survived because enemies knew they have no spine to take hard decisions BUT MADE GREAT EVENT MANAGERS.

Sita Ram goel was right "rss is biggest conspiracy against Hindus "

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 19 Nov 2021 13:22

SinghS wrote:. If they do what is right, they won't be taken as weak.

If they do what is right then do a complete 360 while flipping middle fingers to their supporters and calling it a masterstroke, then what would they be taken as?

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 19 Nov 2021 13:33

The Battle of Perceptions!!
Will repealing have deleterious effects on the poll outcomes??
I have a feeling the BIF's and other external forces would be emboldened to attack the policies whether right or wrong.
The 2022 state polls will show what or which way the 2024 will go.
To use the analogy of 'Balakot' the government of the day lost the battle of perceptions in the immediate aftermath but took a long time in winning that battle.
Will Farm Laws a have similar effect??
Punjab/UP will be litmus I presume
But to give credit to Modiji, things are being done on a particular day to douse any potential Khalistani fires.
Is this repeal being done with 'Punjab will start burning again' in mind?? is the question
are there intel inputs of something serious being planned by Napak now that J/K experiment has gone sour!
And can we expect post polls and if BJP win one or both(if the asli captain can deliver) these laws will manifest in a different ways or multiple different laws!

disha · Post by **disha** » 19 Nov 2021 13:36

Cain Marko wrote:
disha wrote:
The perfumes in Saudi Barbaria were imported from India. Long before biblical times and even before Roman times. Check out Frankincense and Myrh. There are several Frankincenses, but the largest came from B. Serrata which is extensive (at one time) in much of the Indian sub-continent. Check out the 3 gifts to bejesus. One of them being gold. The other two are Frankincense and Myrrh.

Cain Marko'ji I apologize for using a word that I thought was related to Him just like "omigosh" meant "oh my god" without doing proper research. On research, the word quoted in bold started out as an Irish expression of surprise and is now not considered germane. Again I apologize for brazenly using a word without understanding its true import or impact on others.

On the other part, I do have friends who went on to become Mullahs. And yet at a community level, the said aspect that others also perceive is equally valid. And again it is my personal perspective. It is your choice to accept it or ignore it. You are welcome to form your opinion about me based on my comments. Just do not extend it to the view of the larger BRF community. My personal opinions are insignificant and that's what they are FWIW.

One more aspect that you must acknowledge. A word out of place made you upset (and I apologize for that). At the same time, Hindus (and again I am not a Hindu) must take all abuses to their beliefs lying down. Any pipsqueak from them and they will be termed as intolerant, bigoted etc. Take for example their belief in offering prayers to a river. Some of them had to bravely enter a polluted Yamuna (who is also considered the sister of Yama) to offer their prayers. Is it a blind belief? Is calling people of a certain political ideology as 'Bhakts' germane?

Have you ever stood up for them in your private sphere? In your WA group? Corrected your elders? Or the next generation? Or corrected whoever mocks them?

disha · Post by **disha** » 19 Nov 2021 13:42

Thakur_B wrote:Social media is lit with a deluge of anti modi memes in just two hours, mostly from people who supported Modi. Modi supporters are furious right now.

And still there are some sane voices.

Yes it is a major disappointment when overnight one finds their own legs cut under them.

At the same time I found that some of the anti-Indian mediapimps, 2-bit BIFs on twitter are suddenly finding that their "issue rug" has been pulled right out under them. The Khalistani 2.0 are exposed and are on the run (see the NIA in Canada and resignation of their Khalistani defense minister), the Ma-Greta Dumberg toolkit gang has lost its voice, and the assorted opposition politicians now have to search for a new issue to whip up the passions.

This appears to be a tactical retreat. Remember what Modi said about aadhar? He might do the same with MSP. He already gave a hint on it.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Nov 2021 13:45

AshishA wrote:Almost everyone is viewing this from a politics perspective of electoral gains. Is there any chance that it was done keeping national security in mind? A burning punjab of 80s is something no one wants right now. Tikait and other others are a starting. Eventually perceived grievances will lead to a point of militancy. And this time there would be no terror targets to bomb in Pakistan.

Moreover, I may disagree with the actions of Modi. But I would never doubt his intention which many seem to be doing here right now.

I think there is China angle to reduce internal friction. Moreover there is possibility of more disturbances. We got preview in Maharashtra.

disha · Post by **disha** » 19 Nov 2021 13:51

Varuna wrote:There is a larger picture that I'd like to speculate over. My sikh side of the family had been quite against Modi since the BIF coordinated attacks over the farm laws. Today is gurpoorab - guru nanak jayanti, and to announce it on this day has created a sea change in the perception of the average sikh. The seeds of dissent that were being sowed among the community by the BIF have evaporated. The thing the BIF doesn't count on is that underneath all our differences, we are bound by the same dharmik identity.

Thanks for bringing the above out. I also feel that the issue was inflamed by BIF and now the issue itself is gone what will they do?

To announce this on gurpurab, from a position of strength, after having identified and banned the backers, conveys a sense of understanding.

Regarding the laws, I think they will be back in another form after interacting with the real stakeholders of Punjab and Haryana, not the rabblerousers.

The penguins in the courts cannot jump up and down on the center now. They will find another way to wiggle their beaks into places where it does not matter, but farm laws is not. And the states can go ahead and create farm laws that suite their purpose. Modi clearly said that he wants natural farming (organic+) to progress. And his intention is that MSP has more transparency and actually helps the 80% of farmers who are small and marginal. Will he do a aadhar of MSP?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 19 Nov 2021 13:57

There will be a heavy price to pay and that too it will be paid only by the majority.

no one was voted in with such a huge majority for the country to see a moment like this. This sort of a majority will be difficult to come by again in the next 50-60 years and by that time the jehadi fires would have turned almost everything to ashes.

Still, it behooves us to wait and see what some people may have up their sleeve.

the congis, with their 50 odd seats, aligned with dakait, khalistanis, jehadis, and the BIF have got what they wanted. There is no getting away from that fact.

next on the immediate agenda are the CAA, UCC, minority reservations set in stone, 33% reserved seats in all legislatures, central and state services, separate electorates, urdu with status equal to Hindi, under the threat of common usage of methods used by mumtaz bano in bengal.

And in punjab, if anything, the BJP will continue to be humiliated under the thumb of the jatts as the khalistanis continue their blackmail to extract one concession after another

The war council ( representing which side is a choice left to the imagination)

image added later

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 19 Nov 2021 14:02

chandrasekaran wrote:Saar, Hindu's gave 303 seats to BJP, absolute majority for the 2nd time - unheard of for an entire generation or two. Please stop blaming Hindu's for this too.

Chandrasekaran & m_saini:

This is the harsh reality, whether we like it or not. Voting BJP in with 303 is necessary but not sufficient. Unless we can mobilize, fight for our rights, protest, turn violent when needed etc, we will be taken for a ride.

In India, organized violence isn't put down but respected & accommodated. People who respect the law are perceived as weak, taken for granted and the state asks them to suck it up, while supporting the perps (citing "law & order" problem). Fundamentally, the state has failed in its primary duty, i.e. Kshatriyata.

So, we can gripe about it all we want and call it unfair (& its indeed unfair), but we have seen "what works". Upto us whether we are able to adopt it.

SinghS · Post by **SinghS** » 19 Nov 2021 14:07

Majority will always pay the price, if they don't get united under a single platform. Why would BJP be forced to make this compromise, if majority votes in single block?

Bengal was lost due to majority choosing to vote for Mamata. The BJP's hand is forced as the majority is soft and confused.

Sanjith was murdered in Kerala...did majority come on streets?

Larry Walker · Post by **Larry Walker** » 19 Nov 2021 14:10

Can we on BRF formulate a list of demands that we want to GoI to repeal or change ? Then we can decide on where and how to agitate - maybe we will have to budget for some tents and AC's and pizza ovens .. maybe some vehicles and tractors etc.
Now onwards no point in going out and voting and then expecting good things from this so-called chaddm nationalist government.

SinghS · Post by **SinghS** » 19 Nov 2021 14:23

Larry Walker wrote:Can we on BRF formulate a list of demands that we want to GoI to repeal or change ? Then we can decide on where and how to agitate - maybe we will have to budget for some tents and AC's and pizza ovens .. maybe some vehicles and tractors etc.
Now onwards no point in going out and voting and then expecting good things from this so-called chaddm nationalist government.

Take from me:
1. Free temples from the government control

2. Hindu minorities have to be recognized and allowed to run their own education institutions on the lines of other minorities.

3. No Namaj allowed in open space...only after DM/governor permission on weekly basis

4. Terrorism, religious & political murders, conversions and riots have to be essentially probed via a central agency and be trialed only in special courts. Supreme court can't send these cases to high courts...they can only hear after the quantum of punishment fixed.

5. These probes have to fast paced, punishment mated out in 6 months and if officers fail to gather enough foolproof evidence, they have to be penalized. They have to be backed by a competent agency to gather and collate evidence.

6. Judiciary reforms to free them from corruption and modernize evidence and proof collection system.

7. Central vigilance on judges and swift, harsh punishment if found indulging in corruption and favoritism.

8. A Central find, detain and deport commission/department for the illegal migrants from other countries. If local police is found interfering in their activities, the officer involved has to be taken into custody as soon as possible with 6 months of jail and loss of job.

modify as you wish.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 19 Nov 2021 14:26

There is a larger picture that I'd like to speculate over. My sikh side of the family had been quite against Modi since the BIF coordinated attacks over the farm laws. Today is gurpoorab - guru nanak jayanti, and to announce it on this day has created a sea change in the perception of the average sikh. The seeds of dissent that were being sowed among the community by the BIF have evaporated. The thing the BIF doesn't count on is that underneath all our differences, we are bound by the same dharmik identity.

This is exactly the type of narrative going around that has been rankling me for quite some time now. While I love and respect Punjab and Punjabis as fellow Indians, I see no reason they need to be mollycoddled just because they had a separatist past, some sections of Punjabis are prone to giving in way too easily to BIFs and dare to storm Red Fort on Republic day with arrogance and impunity waving Khalistan flags, and so on, the list is long...

After all if we are bound by the same dharmik identity then how come other parts of are a lot more resistant to BIF and don't behave this way? What if people in every state of India get on a high horse and behave like these sections of Punjabis... India will not last very long.

Sad that this Govt couldn't call a spade a spade and take on BIFs and those who let "seeds of dissent get sown among them". Neither deserve any sympathy or preferential treatment.

Larry Walker · Post by **Larry Walker** » 19 Nov 2021 14:33

Tomorrow there will be an agitation to implement Sharia zones and there will be an ocean of protestors on the streets. So will GoI implement Sharia law also ??

SinghS · Post by **SinghS** » 19 Nov 2021 14:35

GOI will implement if they are in majority. Don't forget it is a democracy...for the people, by the people and of the people. If we wake up before it is too late...better for us and our future generations.

Larry Walker · Post by **Larry Walker** » 19 Nov 2021 14:39

SinghS wrote:GOI will implement if they are in majority. Don't forget it is a democracy...for people, by the people and of the people.

So the agitating farmers were in majority ? a crowd less than that what can gather in a village fair is now majority ? A law passed by a government with 303 seats in parliament is not voice of majority ?

SinghS · Post by **SinghS** » 19 Nov 2021 14:45

If the government did not think that they were in majority, why did they not order the cane treatment? The government obviously thinks that they(farmers) represent a substantial section who oppose farm laws.

We need to accept that the government has failed miserably in the battle of perception. You bring a law, it has to be welcomed. For that lots of machinations are required. This government doesn't have the machinery required.

AshishA · Post by **AshishA** » 19 Nov 2021 14:47

ramana wrote:
AshishA wrote:Almost everyone is viewing this from a politics perspective of electoral gains. Is there any chance that it was done keeping national security in mind? A burning punjab of 80s is something no one wants right now. Tikait and other others are a starting. Eventually perceived grievances will lead to a point of militancy. And this time there would be no terror targets to bomb in Pakistan.

Moreover, I may disagree with the actions of Modi. But I would never doubt his intention which many seem to be doing here right now.
I think there is China angle to reduce internal friction. Moreover there is possibility of more disturbances. We got preview in Maharashtra.

Maybe. Kartarpur corridor opening, farm law repeal, etc etc. suggests something is going on the background. Maharashtra, UP, Tripura, Assam etc etc. are experiencing violence. It might be that Chinese are planning something and these spurts of violence in different parts of country are a precursor to what is about to come. You don't want the army out here in places like punjab or any other state dousing the fire when China attacks.