2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Sachin
Webmaster BR
Posts: 8989
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Undisclosed

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Sachin »

After seeing the main stream media and social media today; I feel the plan to repeal the farm laws was extremely poor optics. The farmer-broker gang was called Khalistanis etc. etc., but now it is to the same gang that Modi & Co have surrendered to. Mark my words; this will only embolden BIF, peacefools, Khalistanis and farmer-brokers to up the ante and open another battle front. I feel sad for the 100s of BJP karyakartas who will have to attend TV shows and get lampooned.
SinghS wrote:Having repealed the farm laws, the government has option of going for ruthless & harsh crackdown on CAA and such protestors.
I have no such hopes (as of today, now). GoI has not even bothered to bring the CAA Rules, with an excuse they would do it after COVID.
Thakur_B wrote:Social media is lit with a deluge of anti modi memes in just two hours, mostly from people who supported Modi. Modi supporters are furious right now.
I am one such person, but no taken to social media. I strongly feel that this has been poor optics. GoI now looks ball-less and all kind of sugar coating words of Modi will not cut any ice with any one. If this was the whole game plan, why even get the Republic Day celeberations messed up? This move has now given legitamacy for all gangs Farmer Broker Khalistani gang, Rakesh Dakait & gang etc. I am sure Rakesh Dakait will use this for his political mileage in UP.
disha wrote:and the assorted opposition politicians now have to search for a new issue to whip up the passions.
They will soon find one :lol:. And the same strategy would be used again and again.
Larry Walker wrote:Tomorrow there will be an agitation to implement Sharia zones and there will be an ocean of protestors on the streets. So will GoI implement Sharia law also ??
Sharia may get enforced in parts of India (KL & WB being the leading luminaries here). As I mentioned earlier; irrespective of what Modi says - today GoI is seen as an enemy who has meekly surrendered. If I could get my words across to Modi & mainly A.Shah it would be - "if you don't know how to take things to a logical closure, then don't start it and act as if they know everything". A. Shah as a home minister seems to be fairing poorer even than Kadi Ninda.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5491
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cyrano »

Larry Walker wrote:Tomorrow there will be an agitation to implement Sharia zones and there will be an ocean of protestors on the streets. So will GoI implement Sharia law also ??
:rotfl: Sharia is already in vogue for muslims in India, since 1937!
Dumal
BRFite
Posts: 315
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Dumal »

AshishA wrote:
ramana wrote:
I think there is China angle to reduce internal friction. Moreover there is possibility of more disturbances. We got preview in Maharashtra.
Maybe. Kartarpur corridor opening, farm law repeal,etc.
Could be majorly about Punjab election politics and peripheraly the UP election. Could this see Amarinder's new party and BJP come together? Potentially with add some of the saner elements of SAD. Success through such a grouping would secure Punjab from the BIF side.
Manish_Sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5128
Joined: 07 Sep 2009 16:17

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Manish_Sharma »

Advani had given hint when he called modi "a great event management genius", that is what this narcisst is!

He doesn't have guts to take hard decisions. He just want to use every oppurtunity to advertise "Modi is great". Vajpayee took gutsy decision to do Shakti tests in Pokharan and took the heat from everywhere. What modi did was a anti-satellite test and called it Shakti 2.0 just to feel equal to Vajpayee with no international pressure. The guy just lives to get awarded by arabs and west and whatnot.

He is insecure of Yogi's rise in Hindu hearts so he is sabotaging the UP elections.
AshishA
BRFite
Posts: 544
Joined: 07 Feb 2018 22:10

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by AshishA »

Dumal wrote:
AshishA wrote:
Maybe. Kartarpur corridor opening, farm law repeal,etc.
Could be majorly about Punjab election politics and peripheraly the UP election. Could this see Amarinder's new party and BJP come together? Potentially with add some of the saner elements of SAD. Success through such a grouping would secure Punjab from the BIF side.
Yes, it could be about punjab. I had seen a prediction about a month ago in reddit where the poster had predicted that BJP will withdraw farm laws just before the elections. This was after Amarinder met BJP HQ. His reasoning was that BJP+Farm law parties+Amarinder will contest Punjab elections together to prevent AAP from seizing power.

But in my personal opinion, there is a national security angle to this. We have a out of control China, Jihadi Pakistan and now Jihadi Afghanistan out to spread chaos in India. And revival of khalistan seems to be something all of them agree with.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32437
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

this is now added into the toxic mix and the clusterf@@k continues.......

The #Allahabad HC has recommended Government of India to implement the mandate of Article 44 of Constitution of India (Uniform Civil Code)

Allahabad HC asks Modi govt to consider Uniform Civil Code, says 'it's long due, can’t be made voluntary'

Allahabad HC asks Modi govt to consider Uniform Civil Code, says 'it's long due, can’t be made voluntary'

Nov 19, 2021

The High Court Bench called for the implementation of the Uniform Civil Code in the wake of a multiplicity of marriage and family laws in place. It is the need of the hour that the Parliament comes up with a "single-family code" to protect interfaith couples from being "hounded as criminals", said Justice Suneet Kumar.

"The stage has reached that the Parliament should intervene and examine as to whether the country requires a multiplicity of marriage and registration laws or the parties to a marriage should be brought under the umbrella of single-family code," the court observed.

The Bench further stressed that it can't be voluntary in view of the apprehension and fear expressed by the members of the minority community.

"The UCC is a necessity and mandatorily required today. It cannot be made 'purely voluntary' as was observed by B.R. Ambedkar 75 years back, in view of the apprehension and fear expressed by the members of the minority community," the court said.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32437
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

And, here is something from history and the machinations of the meddling and malicious commies

the article is dated and gives the actual genesis of the khalistan issue

Monday, November 6, 2000, Chandigarh, India


Surjeet admits to raising Sikh homeland issue

Surjeet admits to raising Sikh homeland issue

NEW DELHI, Nov 5 (UNI) — The CPM general Secretary, Mr Harkishen Singh Surjeet, has admitted he raised the concept of a separate Sikh homeland in the 1940s, but said he did so to counter the two-nation theory accepted by the then Communist Party of India.

Replying to a controversy raised by a biographical book on him, Siyasat Da Rustum-e-Hind, written by TV journalist Shameel, at the Share-e-Aam programme on Tara Punjabi TV, Mr Surjeet said he had drafted the "Sikh homeland" document to blunt the arguments of his party’s another leader Sajjad Zaheer in favour of Pakistan.

Mr Surjeet recalled that Zaheer had sent him a 34-page concept paper while he was in a Gujarat jail in the early 1940s. The paper contained strong arguments in favour of the two-nation theory, which too was the accepted party line and later became the basis of Partition.

Irked with the party stand, Mr Surjeet said, he wrote back to the party that "if Hindus and Muslims are two separate nations, then so are Sikhs." But, Mr Surjeet said, later both he and his party rejected the division of the country on communal lines.


He, however, confessed that the division of the country had hit the Communists harder than any other political party.

In the two-part programme, to be telecast on Tuesday and Wednesday night, Mr Surjeet also criticised the Congress governments for Operation Bluestar, sending of the armed forces into the Golden Temple complex in June, 1984, and the anti-Sikh riots in November, 1984, in Delhi and other parts of the country.
edited to add the date of the article
Last edited by chetak on 19 Nov 2021 16:12, edited 1 time in total.
TKiran
BRFite
Posts: 997
Joined: 13 Dec 2009 00:22

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by TKiran »

Actually, Farm laws were not good for the simple reason that Hindus will loose land to Corporates. I don't know who advised Modi to steer the agricultural policy to the detriment of Hindus. Modi wanted a course correction, we dont need farm laws, just more efficient implementation of govt. Procurement and distribution.

Good riddance....

I don't see any chankianness on the part of Modi. Just didn't see far enough how detrimental it would be for Hindus. But anyways, good riddance....

P.S. : these type of laws would be good in countries such as USA, where there's excess land, but very few farmers. It would have been suicidal for Hindus to accept such laws. Hindus have only one thing that is still working in their favor "own farm land, and agriculture as employment, family as a unit". Modi was about to bring colossal wreck on Hindus because of a wrong advice. Good riddance..... though stupidity of the Punjab farmers helped....
shaun
BRFite
Posts: 1385
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by shaun »

TKiran wrote:... Good riddance..... though stupidity of the Punjab farmers helped....
I strongly object on using such words on farmers .
Neela
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4104
Joined: 30 Jul 2004 15:05
Location: Spectator in the dossier diplomacy tennis match

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Neela »

Manish_Sharma wrote:Advani had given hint when he called modi "a great event management genius", that is what this narcisst is!

He doesn't have guts to take hard decisions. He just want to use every oppurtunity to advertise "Modi is great". Vajpayee took gutsy decision to do Shakti tests in Pokharan and took the heat from everywhere. What modi did was a anti-satellite test and called it Shakti 2.0 just to feel equal to Vajpayee with no international pressure. The guy just lives to get awarded by arabs and west and whatnot.

He is insecure of Yogi's rise in Hindu hearts so he is sabotaging the UP elections.

:rotfl:
Dude, get a grip over yourself. You are coming out as completely unhinged. You really think you are clever dont you? A search of your posts shows a particular trend. And easy to derive what you are at.
Rony
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3513
Joined: 14 Jul 2006 23:29

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Rony »

Modi/Shah era is over. 2024 is gone case. For years i thought Gandhi/Nehru as losers who succumbed to Jihadi tactics of Jinnah/ML and agreed for partition. Now Modi/Shah losers are making Gandhi/Nehru look better. At least Gandhi/Nehru had to face more blood thirsty groups and events like direct action day at that time. Modi/Shah/Doval could not even control Delhi border block and Khalistanis/BIF. Compare these losers with Narsimha Rao. Despite opposition from his own cabinet and party losses in several state elections, Loss of Soviet union support internationally, peak of Islamist terrorism in Kashmir, Khalistani/Maoist threats, he never backed away from his economic reforms agenda.
Last edited by Rony on 19 Nov 2021 17:16, edited 2 times in total.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32437
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Ajit Doval said recently "Civil society is a new frontier of war, it can be manipulated".

Modi said that he passed the law for the benefit of the farmers, but is repealing it for the security of the nation.

There is a geopolitical context that Modi cannot ignore anymore

The situation has changed after the amerikis cut and ran from afghanistan, unleashing dark forces and allowing consolidation of forces especially inimical to India.

Modi will not take such a big decision just to win some state election.

The situation in punjab is germane to this repeal. jehadi forces merging with the BIF will increasingly agitate violently and precipitate instability.

IIRC, bhindranwalle too rose from the turmoil of a farmers agitation.

with xi and bajwa also champing at the bit, it is always better to let the internal situation cool on its own by backing down a little and regrouping with a renewed focus on clear and present immediate threats.

let's hope that it is not like the reduction in petrol prices which was left almost until too late.
Last edited by chetak on 19 Nov 2021 17:20, edited 1 time in total.
nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4712
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nam »

Unnecessary matham over the situation. The world did not end before the farm laws, it will not end after this.

The objective is to stay in power. Not go on an ego trip. You break the ecosystem by being in power. You cannot fight for power by taking an uncompromising stance against who we want to keep on our side....
Manish_P
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5497
Joined: 25 Mar 2010 17:34

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Manish_P »

chetak wrote:this is now added into the toxic mix and the clusterf@@k continues.......
The #Allahabad HC has recommended Government of India to implement the mandate of Article 44 of Constitution of India (Uniform Civil Code)
Allahabad HC asks Modi govt to consider Uniform Civil Code, says 'it's long due, can’t be made voluntary'
.
They will not do it in any hurry now.. the peacefuls having sensed blood will hit the streets and within a year or so the PM will be forced to announce it's repeal, probably on Eid day.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32437
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

nam wrote:Unnecessary matham over the situation. The world did not end before the farm laws, it will not end after this.

The objective is to stay in power. Not go on an ego trip. You break the ecosystem by being in power. You cannot fight for power by taking an uncompromising stance against who we want to keep on our side....
the object is not merely to stay in power but to come back with the power to break the ecosystem that was set up by the britshits and handed over to the congi commies who then ran it on their behalf.

Doval was right about "civil society" being weaponized in India. It was this "civil society" that normalized the supremacy of a white skinned foreigner and allowed the corrupt system that she ran along with the famiglia and it was the same "civil society" that leached off the profiting architectures that were created to sustain, privilege and enrich them. The elite are freeloaders who like to be waited on, hand and foot, just so long as they are not called upon to foot the bill.

does anyone think that this foreigner and her brats would have not only survived but also metastasized in India if she were black, brown, or yellow

why does the phrase "manchurian candidate" come to mind. That script has been followed pretty tightly in this case
nandakumar
BRFite
Posts: 1641
Joined: 10 May 2010 13:37

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nandakumar »

Cyrano wrote:
nandakumar wrote: The harvester machines don't cut the paddy as deep as human hands can with a sickle. The result is a relatively tall stubble which can't be ploughed back into the field.
And we are led to believe that farmers who can afford harvester machines cant afford a stubble removal machine, even cooperatively owned !
Actually I wanted to add something more but couldn't get around to doing it. The basic problem, which I think ManSingh pointed, is that there is a law which say paddy planting cannot happen before June 30th after wheat harvest. This was supposed to relieve the land of water stress during the hot summer months. The real reason is that that Monsanto had come up with a 70 day duration maize variety against a usual 90 to 110 day crop which is the norm. The choice was between sacrificing a crop with assured procurement support and MSP such as rice with maize with neither of the above, it is a no- brainer for the farmer. Monsanto reasoned that it could be marketed as a third crop. So the issue boiled down to somehow prevent farmers from sowing rice until July. For then they would consider maize without jeopardizing their rice wheat cropping pattern. Maize as a third crop between mid to end April to July would fit in nicely with a cycle that accommodates both rice and wheat later. So the NGO environmental lobby was activated to raise the spectre of water shortage. They succeeded. But delaying the rice harvest had an unintended consequence. South West monsoon starts to withdraw by mid September. So the winds and rain are not there to keep the flyash away from Delhi with winds keeping it in the less densely populated lands of Punjab and Haryana and rain pushing it down to the ground.
As regards stubble removal machine, quite apart from the incremental cost the other critical factor is time. There is a small window of time after rice harvest and before wheat sowing has to happen. Odds are that farmers would think, 'To Hell with smog in Delhi. Let me get the damn stubble out of the way'.
Manish_P
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5497
Joined: 25 Mar 2010 17:34

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Manish_P »

nam wrote:..
The objective is to stay in power. Not go on an ego trip. You break the ecosystem by being in power. You cannot fight for power by taking an uncompromising stance against who we want to keep on our side....
Good point. However it is a very dicey risk for the BJP.

Those that do not ever vote for them (peacefuls, punjab, etc) will still not vote for them while OTOH they risk losing vote share of it's core supporters.

Maybe the think-tank of the BJP are hoping the initiatives like the tap water, girl child education, housing incentives for women, direct payments, road and rail development etc will help them retain power (despite price rises and the covid crisis).

Time will tell.

But the powers (super and wannabe-super) are really doubling down on keeping India tied down without having to fight a hot war, merely by exploiting our fault-lines :evil:
Bart S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2938
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 00:03

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Bart S »

nam wrote:Unnecessary matham over the situation. The world did not end before the farm laws, it will not end after this.

The objective is to stay in power. Not go on an ego trip. You break the ecosystem by being in power. You cannot fight for power by taking an uncompromising stance against who we want to keep on our side....
If you hang on to power somehow by being Congress 2.0, how does it help the country?
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32437
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Bart S wrote:
nam wrote:Unnecessary matham over the situation. The world did not end before the farm laws, it will not end after this.

The objective is to stay in power. Not go on an ego trip. You break the ecosystem by being in power. You cannot fight for power by taking an uncompromising stance against who we want to keep on our side....
If you hang on to power somehow by being Congress 2.0, how does it help the country?
Modi has taken this on the chin.

Don't do to Modi, what was done to Vajpayee.

It is vital to our civilization that Modi not only retains 2024 but returns as well.

It appears that amarinder is privy to a lot of inputs from a variety of sources and he has played his cards well by alerting the center.

Agencies have obviously played their part
Manish_P
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5497
Joined: 25 Mar 2010 17:34

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Manish_P »

chetak wrote: Don't do to Modi, what was done to Vajpayee.

It is vital to our civilization that Modi not only retains 2024 but returns as well.
+1 Absolutely. Tactical retreats are needed at times to cover the exposed flanks and are a part of all strategic wars.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32437
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Manish_P wrote:
chetak wrote: Don't do to Modi, what was done to Vajpayee.

It is vital to our civilization that Modi not only retains 2024 but returns as well.
+1 Absolutely. Tactical retreats are needed at times to cover the exposed flanks and are a part of all strategic wars.
If this had to be done by the govt, the situation is far worse than what one reads or imagines.

Wait and see, while hoping for the best..
Dumal
BRFite
Posts: 315
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Dumal »

Read on twitter PM Modi saying "whatever I did was for the farmers. What I am doing is for the country". If this was indeed stated as such, clearly there must have been conditions much worse than just the continuing protests that forced his hands.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32437
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Manish_P wrote:
+1 Absolutely. Tactical retreats are needed at times to cover the exposed flanks and are a part of all strategic wars.

Manish_P ji

Modi doesn't retreat. It is not in his nature.

He advances in another direction onlee.
Ambar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3173
Joined: 12 Jun 2010 09:56
Location: Weak meek unkil Sam!

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

I was panned earlier for saying that it is time to look towards the future and allow Ajit Doval to retire gracefully. He is 78, he has been the NSA for almost 8 yrs now and with just 2 1/2 yrs left in the current term it maybe time to have someone younger with a new perspective.

At the cost of repeating i'll say it again that Modi will not contest 2024. I don't think it has anything to do with the challenges he has encountered (and prevailed) over the last 30 months starting with Pulwama, but i do not believe he intended to run for the 3rd term anyways. However, the recent electoral defeats and getting thoroughly gamed by Sharad Pawar in MH probably means Amit Shah too won't be the candidate, i have a feeling he will take the same path as Modi and run as the CM of GJ. If this does happen then the only 2 potential candidates are Himanta Biswa and Nitin Gadkari, the later is closer to Nagpur HQ and has carved out a brand image for himself so it will likely be him.

No one who voted for Modi twice will ever doubt his resolve or his honesty or his intentions. However there is no question that throughout his 2 terms he has been poorly advised and his policies have been poorly executed. We saw this during demonetization, GST, CAA and farm laws. Despite his experience in GJ, he seemed to have underestimated the ecosystem of break India forces and their cheerleaders in mainstream media.

While no doubt the repeal was done to salvage UP, HR and PJ, i cannot help but wonder how successful BJP will be. People vote for strength, it doesn't matter if this strength is good or evil but people feel safe behind someone they perceive to be strong. This is the single reason why Modi (and not BJP) was voted to power twice with majority, this is the reason why people vote for AAP in DL or TMC in WB. Without INC ecosystem, the Captain will have a tough time winning in PJ with or without BJP, and despite the repeal of the farm laws no one will vote for BJP in PJ anyways. The HR govt may after all survive because jr Chautala has no alternatives but i doubt if non-jaats who voted for BJP in the state will stick their necks out the next time. As for UP, is this enough to bring back jaats into BJP only time will tell.

There's much the government can do administratively to alleviate the pain of the poor and the middleclass without bringing in new laws which is either half baked or never implemented. How they could not foresee this after what happened with CAA i do not know but with just 2 odd years left in the current term it is time to put the head down work towards retaining BJP's core strength i.e. the hapless middleclass and the very poor.
Manish_P
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5497
Joined: 25 Mar 2010 17:34

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Manish_P »

chetak wrote:
Manish_P wrote:
+1 Absolutely. Tactical retreats are needed at times to cover the exposed flanks and are a part of all strategic wars.

Manish_P ji

Modi doesn't retreat. It is not in his nature.

He advances in another direction onlee.
Chetak Saar,

More like our Desh is surrounded (under siege) from all sides. So like that WW2 Yank Paratrooper commander, who on being told so, retorted - "Good, now we can shoot the B@$!£^#$ in all directions"
A Deshmukh
BRFite
Posts: 524
Joined: 05 Dec 2008 14:24

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by A Deshmukh »

Manish_P wrote:
chetak wrote: Don't do to Modi, what was done to Vajpayee. It is vital to our civilization that Modi not only retains 2024 but returns as well.
+1 Absolutely. Tactical retreats are needed at times to cover the exposed flanks and are a part of all strategic wars.
+1.
what has happened is depressing, but we trust Modi to take steps that are necessary for the country.
our information is too limited, to judge this step.
Larry Walker
BRFite
Posts: 488
Joined: 26 Nov 2019 17:33

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Larry Walker »

In recent times - if you observe PM and RM and even HM when they visit any forward posts - have chosen locations where you can see Sikh soldiers at the forefront. I believe there were some intelligence inputs about discontent going deep into the general community and these visits were kind of signaling of unity.
I now hope that NaMo avenges this by taking back PoK and triggering balkanization of Haramiland.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32437
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

A Deshmukh wrote:
Manish_P wrote: +1 Absolutely. Tactical retreats are needed at times to cover the exposed flanks and are a part of all strategic wars.
+1.
what has happened is depressing, but we trust Modi to take steps that are necessary for the country.
our information is too limited, to judge this step.
I have this strong feeling that something big is about to happen in punjab/has been averted to cause this repeal.

ever since amarinder was been ousted, there is a feeling of disquiet and unease.

Hope that I am wrong
Ambar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3173
Joined: 12 Jun 2010 09:56
Location: Weak meek unkil Sam!

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

Capt Amrinder is 79 yrs old and now without the backing of INC ecosystem in PJ. He has very little chance of winning next year unless Sidhu once again decides to commit harakiri and take down INC with him. Pakis started the Khalistan 2.0 experiment when they opened the kartarpur corridor , i see little reason why they will stop now.
Pratyush
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12275
Joined: 05 Mar 2010 15:13

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Pratyush »

Is the Sikh community so illiterate that they will not be able read and understand the laws.

Why was the government unable to make people read them. Which allowed things to reach this far.

What makes Modi think that the community will not be provoked this was again.

You already has Siddhu pouring fuel to the fire regarding som incident in 2015 or 16.
Rampy
BRFite
Posts: 317
Joined: 25 Mar 2003 12:31

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Rampy »

Rony wrote:Modi/Shah era is over. 2024 is gone case. For years i thought Gandhi/Nehru as losers who succumbed to Jihadi tactics of Jinnah/ML and agreed for partition. Now Modi/Shah losers are making Gandhi/Nehru look better. At least Gandhi/Nehru had to face more blood thirsty groups and events like direct action day at that time. Modi/Shah/Doval could not even control Delhi border block and Khalistanis/BIF. Compare these losers with Narsimha Rao. Despite opposition from his own cabinet and party losses in several state elections, Loss of Soviet union support internationally, peak of Islamist terrorism in Kashmir, Khalistani/Maoist threats, he never backed away from his economic reforms agenda.
Seriously... can you tell me where these farm laws were already implemented? Our SC already out a hold for 1 year and they initiated a committee. What backing down are we talking when it was never implemented. Okay look at the street fight where is Tikait last week? Do you think he will win a vote?
The message is clear from yesterday's speech and choice of words it's for Punjab election and took any anarchist ideas Congi and AAP had to use farm laws. The payment of MSP mapped to ID is implemented and folks who paid are banned so whats big loss from this move?
Rampy
BRFite
Posts: 317
Joined: 25 Mar 2003 12:31

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Rampy »

Ambar wrote:I was panned earlier for saying that it is time to look towards the future and allow Ajit Doval to retire gracefully. He is 78, he has been the NSA for almost 8 yrs now and with just 2 1/2 yrs left in the current term it maybe time to have someone younger with a new perspective.

At the cost of repeating i'll say it again that Modi will not contest 2024. I don't think it has anything to do with the challenges he has encountered (and prevailed) over the last 30 months starting with Pulwama, but i do not believe he intended to run for the 3rd term anyways. However, the recent electoral defeats and getting thoroughly gamed by Sharad Pawar in MH probably means Amit Shah too won't be the candidate, i have a feeling he will take the same path as Modi and run as the CM of GJ. If this does happen then the only 2 potential candidates are Himanta Biswa and Nitin Gadkari, the later is closer to Nagpur HQ and has carved out a brand image for himself so it will likely be him.

No one who voted for Modi twice will ever doubt his resolve or his honesty or his intentions. However there is no question that throughout his 2 terms he has been poorly advised and his policies have been poorly executed. We saw this during demonetization, GST, CAA and farm laws. Despite his experience in GJ, he seemed to have underestimated the ecosystem of break India forces and their cheerleaders in mainstream media.

While no doubt the repeal was done to salvage UP, HR and PJ, i cannot help but wonder how successful BJP will be. People vote for strength, it doesn't matter if this strength is good or evil but people feel safe behind someone they perceive to be strong. This is the single reason why Modi (and not BJP) was voted to power twice with majority, this is the reason why people vote for AAP in DL or TMC in WB. Without INC ecosystem, the Captain will have a tough time winning in PJ with or without BJP, and despite the repeal of the farm laws no one will vote for BJP in PJ anyways. The HR govt may after all survive because jr Chautala has no alternatives but i doubt if non-jaats who voted for BJP in the state will stick their necks out the next time. As for UP, is this enough to bring back jaats into BJP only time will tell.

There's much the government can do administratively to alleviate the pain of the poor and the middleclass without bringing in new laws which is either half baked or never implemented. How they could not foresee this after what happened with CAA i do not know but with just 2 odd years left in the current term it is time to put the head down work towards retaining BJP's core strength i.e. the hapless middleclass and the very poor.
I am hoping this is your assessment alone - not sure what you are reading or listening to. SP was gamed he did not game anyone, look at him now he would have never imagined that AD will be arrested - wait till March I am sure all the emotional outburst in BR will be singing a different tone ( as usual its been from last 2 years )
Ambar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3173
Joined: 12 Jun 2010 09:56
Location: Weak meek unkil Sam!

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

Anil Deshmukh's arrest (and we all know how effective the arrests of VIPs are) has more to do with him trying to extort Ambani through Mumbai Police than anything else. For Sharad Pawar its a pawn he is willing to sacrifice, what difference does it make to him if Anil Deshmukh is the HM or Dilip Patil ? Everyone was predicting MVA govt to fall within 6 months, people predicted there will be a break in SS/NCP/INC who will join BJP by end of first year of the govt but nothing of that sort happened and the govt has completed 2 yrs despite Palgarh, Ambani extortion, Anil Deshmukh, Arnab Goswami, Param Bir and epic covid mismanagement.
nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4712
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nam »

Bart S wrote: If you hang on to power somehow by being Congress 2.0, how does it help the country?
If both parties behave the same way, then may be that's what the majority of the Indians want? You have to consider it as the fate of the nation.

Then it really doesn't matter who is in power.
nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4712
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nam »

The reality of India, is most of us like freebies. Who wouldn't? When a rich city like Delhi votes on free water & electricity.. why blame others.

The only thing people look forward on a budget day is .. reduction of income tax!

Political parties in India are fighting for power... not to implement our dream utopian super efficient capitalist state.
Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10040
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Mort Walker »

Bad decision by the government. One from an economic reform point of view and enthusiasm for the BJP will wane where many supporters of the BJP’s agenda will simply not show up to the UP polls next March. The BJP will lose UP and be out of power at the center in 2024. The next PM of India will be Priyanka Gandhi or Mamta Banerjee. :cry:
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5491
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cyrano »

There is definitely more to the story if these laws are being repealed when the "farmers" agitation was already deflated and courts haven't said anything. Just look at the reactions on this forum, Modi can't anticipate as much? Something sinister is afoot and Modi might be sacrificing after having come this far for a reason.
Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6472
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Supratik »

Very good decision.
Rampy
BRFite
Posts: 317
Joined: 25 Mar 2003 12:31

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Rampy »

Ambar wrote:Anil Deshmukh's arrest (and we all know how effective the arrests of VIPs are) has more to do with him trying to extort Ambani through Mumbai Police than anything else. For Sharad Pawar its a pawn he is willing to sacrifice, what difference does it make to him if Anil Deshmukh is the HM or Dilip Patil ? Everyone was predicting MVA govt to fall within 6 months, people predicted there will be a break in SS/NCP/INC who will join BJP by end of first year of the govt but nothing of that sort happened and the govt has completed 2 yrs despite Palgarh, Ambani extortion, Anil Deshmukh, Arnab Goswami, Param Bir and epic covid mismanagement.
lol So you mean Sharad Pawar for his best lt.'s arrested because he was too smart? :rotfl:

I am surprised at the emotional meltdown in BR post farm law repeal. lets look at few things
1. Was farm law implemented in India already - Ans is 'No' as SC put a hold and appointed a committee
2. Did farm law stop small farmers to move out of Agents - No
3. Amarinder the instigator or catalyst for chakka jam needs support to win Punjab. Without laws repealed he has nothing to fight for. Now he has it BJP wont go with SAD
4. INC was instigating riots and mayhem across - now have no mudda to fight Punjab or UP north
5. Govt is in no mood to bring UCC or anything and they know its not going to work.
6. They need to secure and dismantle last strongholds - which they will do now
7. These Khalistanis were threatening and putting pressure on small farmers, many Sikh regiment soldiers are from small families - now what. They have to expose and come out for what they are. It's turkey shoot time.
8. Someone said Modi won't fight 2024 - he will and you will see
sanjaykumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6118
Joined: 16 Oct 2005 05:51

Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sanjaykumar »

You can be confident Sikhs will find something else to bellyache about. It is the victimhood narrative inbuilt. Just like the Abrahamic cults.

More ‘subsidies’ are always a good idea.
Locked