MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
Instead of spending time and money, who not to build more MK1A/MK2? Set up additional lines to increase production rates instead of working with decades old airframes and associated old equipment/systems. This is a MK2 thread. Please stick to the topic.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
There is already shadow cast on mk2 but reason Mig29 is being discussed is for reducing delivery timeline of 114 planes before 2029.
Just adding 1 more Mk1A line will give additional 12-20 planes a year?
If optimism shared in Baazigar article is true then I would prefer to reduce Rafale from 54 to 36 and increase new Mig29UPG numbers from 60 to 120.
I am of the strong opinion that we do need numbers and before 2030 - more the better.
Is there any promise made by ChinPak that, they will wait till AMCA will be inducted in numbers OR till we get those Rafales as part of MRFA well in next decade?
Just adding 1 more Mk1A line will give additional 12-20 planes a year?
If optimism shared in Baazigar article is true then I would prefer to reduce Rafale from 54 to 36 and increase new Mig29UPG numbers from 60 to 120.
I am of the strong opinion that we do need numbers and before 2030 - more the better.
Is there any promise made by ChinPak that, they will wait till AMCA will be inducted in numbers OR till we get those Rafales as part of MRFA well in next decade?
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
ChinPak has always been there and will be there for the foreseeable future but we can't go salivating after one import after another anytime something happens at the border. Otherwise, we'll never get there. At one point we will have to grow a spine and say no more imports even if the Chicoms are right outside Delhi.hemant_sai wrote:Is there any promise made by ChinPak that, they will wait till AMCA will be inducted in numbers OR till we get those Rafales as part of MRFA well in next decade?
If numbers are required then the only way forward is Mk2, TEDBF(Orca) and then AMCA instead of MiG 29, 35, 41, 47, 53....
Just my layman 2p
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
Can we say No MRFA - No import of fighter plane?m_saini wrote: If numbers are required then the only way forward is Mk2, TEDBF(Orca) and then AMCA instead of MiG 29, 35, 41, 47, 53....
Just my layman 2p
To whom we are fooling?
We are far from stopping import of fighter plane - not in this decade. And it is not only about desi MIC that is the reason - so arguing that we will have desi MIC ready and hence import will stop - is like living in fool's paradise.
So assuming MRFA will happen - what is best output that we are looking at?
Do we want to limit our budget for MRFA and optimize the numbers?
Is it absolute must to get 100+ Rafales manufactured/assembled in India and hence no budgetary constraints and no timeline constraints?
Roosis are already pushing for Su-75 - it means it will definitely delay the MRFA process even if Su-75 is not to be selected?
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
Why are we incapable of believing in ourselves? Why can't we stop importing complete fighter planes? We must do that and progress to importing specific techs instead. Unless we love sending our money and jobs overseas, we must stop this practice. The enemy wins without firing a shot when we import since we gleefully send our jobs overseas threatening our own economic security.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
^Interesting from same TWITTER thread :Rakesh wrote:Which is what will likely happen....
https://twitter.com/AnirudhGB/status/14 ... 36334?s=20 ---> Anything over 36-54 Rafales will be detrimental to IAF CAPEX allowances and their other projects. Tejas Mk2 fits the bill perfectly and must be inducted in numbers to retain the squadron edge.
@ib4uanytime:
My equation for replacement
Tejas Mk1- Jaguars
Tejas Mk2- Mig21 Bison
ORCA- Mig29UPG + Mirage 2000
For reaching 42 squadron strength
Rafael-36+36 (4squadron)
AMCA -72 (2 new squadron and 2 will replace initial Su30mki batch)
AMCA 2- 72 ( Next gen fighters)
https://twitter.com/ib4uanytime/status/ ... rCOgQ&s=19
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
This is everyone's wish here but what is the reality?Vivek K wrote:... Why can't we stop importing complete fighter planes? We must do that and progress to importing specific techs instead. Unless we love sending our money and jobs overseas, we must stop this practice. The enemy wins without firing a shot when we import since we gleefully send our jobs overseas threatening our own economic security.
Current reality is that MRFA process is rolling and it will continue no matter who wins 2024.
We can wish that there won't be any new FGFA/MRFA proposals in next decade?
And also pray that current MRFA concludes well before 2024 elections (highly impossible hence pray).
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... 22729?s=20 ---> Sweden's Saab says it will offer India help in AMCA project if Gripen-E/F wins IAF's 114 MRFA tender. Assures 78% serviceability rate for Gripen and half the price of Rafales.
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
Are we going to be so stupid?Rakesh wrote:https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... 22729?s=20 ---> Sweden's Saab says it will offer India help in AMCA project if Gripen-E/F wins IAF's 114 MRFA tender. Assures 78% serviceability rate for Gripen and half the price of Rafales.
I don't think so.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
^Defense ministry and whole defence establishment is primed to favour IMPORT. Remember Eurofighter didn't have AESA during MMRCA and only display radar on Helicopter. Still Eurofighter won technical evaluations. Eurofighter didn't even A to G capabilities but still.
So anything is possible.
So anything is possible.
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
Defence companies are in the business of making money. They will say anything, literally *ANYTHING* to sell their wares.Pratyush wrote:Are we going to be so stupid?
I don't think so.
Saab is no different and they have made outlandish claims before. At the end of the day, the customer has to buy into the hype.
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
The only hope is MRFA drags on like MRCA and we have MWF in flying condition by then. I have a feeling there is a hint that GoI and the forces know about it as they keep paying lip service to MRFA to keep the import suppliers happy. Or it could be my own wishful thinking.hemant_sai wrote:This is everyone's wish here but what is the reality?Vivek K wrote:... Why can't we stop importing complete fighter planes? We must do that and progress to importing specific techs instead. Unless we love sending our money and jobs overseas, we must stop this practice. The enemy wins without firing a shot when we import since we gleefully send our jobs overseas threatening our own economic security.
Current reality is that MRFA process is rolling and it will continue no matter who wins 2024.
We can wish that there won't be any new FGFA/MRFA proposals in next decade?
And also pray that current MRFA concludes well before 2024 elections (highly impossible hence pray).
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
https://twitter.com/ReviewVayu/status/1 ... 9564658692
Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari, IAF: "We expect the Multi Role Fighter Aircraft MFRA plan to be firmed up to build ops capability & plan to induct 6 MRFA squadrons in a phased manner. Finalisation of ASQRs is under progress; then the proposal will move to Acceptance of Necessity"
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
There is another problem . We don’t have any money to pay for these. Max 36 Rafael’s if Evil Modi wins again.williams wrote: The only hope is MRFA drags on like MRCA and we have MWF in flying condition by then. I have a feeling there is a hint that GoI and the forces know about it as they keep paying lip service to MRFA to keep the import suppliers happy. Or it could be my own wishful thinking.
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
Based on the Kamov news. How many want to bet that MRCA will NOT be the MK2.
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
The CAS and his staff are optimists and haven't checked the GOIs intent or the state of the budget. All the ASQRs in the world cannot get us the funds necessary for 114 MRFA with TOT when a mere 36 Rafale cost us 9 Billion Euro.m_saini wrote:https://twitter.com/ReviewVayu/status/1 ... 9564658692
Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari, IAF: "We expect the Multi Role Fighter Aircraft MFRA plan to be firmed up to build ops capability & plan to induct 6 MRFA squadrons in a phased manner. Finalisation of ASQRs is under progress; then the proposal will move to Acceptance of Necessity"
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
Its a little grating to see the new Chief go on repeatedly about MRFA & avoiding mention of the MK2. This goes beyond "reading the Kalma"
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
He wants a quick and ready boost to his organizations war fighting ability. Problem is it wont be quick and nor is it affordable.
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
I suspect the MRCA is all but in Rafale's bag. My reading of the tea leaves is as such:
MWF will be procured by IAF, and then GOI will agree to further batches of the Rafale, 36 and perhaps another 36. These follow on two batches, plus another batch for the IN will be partly Make in India. But these orders will be placed sequentially and only after 2022, with the second batch only after 2024. Next year, the IAF's acquisition money - whatever is available, will go for the 10 Sea Guardian drones ($1Billion), 2x Phalcons (~$800Mn- 1Bn), 21 MiG-29s and 12 Su-30s ($2.2 Bn). If we are lucky, the Su-30 upgrade too (for an initial 100 aircraft), at around $2 to 2.5 Bn. Thats a total of ~5Bn.
Around 15% ($0.75 Bn) upfront. Which should be possible from a capex of around $6.5Bn even assuming committed liabilities and previous pending bills (~30% of the prior capex). So I only hope the IAF doesnt do something crazy like hold off on the Su-30 upgrade and Phalcon purchase trying to "save funds" for a MRFA thinking GOI will park it against next years budget for a MRFA budget.
MWF will be procured by IAF, and then GOI will agree to further batches of the Rafale, 36 and perhaps another 36. These follow on two batches, plus another batch for the IN will be partly Make in India. But these orders will be placed sequentially and only after 2022, with the second batch only after 2024. Next year, the IAF's acquisition money - whatever is available, will go for the 10 Sea Guardian drones ($1Billion), 2x Phalcons (~$800Mn- 1Bn), 21 MiG-29s and 12 Su-30s ($2.2 Bn). If we are lucky, the Su-30 upgrade too (for an initial 100 aircraft), at around $2 to 2.5 Bn. Thats a total of ~5Bn.
Around 15% ($0.75 Bn) upfront. Which should be possible from a capex of around $6.5Bn even assuming committed liabilities and previous pending bills (~30% of the prior capex). So I only hope the IAF doesnt do something crazy like hold off on the Su-30 upgrade and Phalcon purchase trying to "save funds" for a MRFA thinking GOI will park it against next years budget for a MRFA budget.
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
IAFs "new" procurement for the next decade includes 100-140 AMCA, 6x Netra Mk2, LUH (61), LCH (62), IFR (at least 6 wanted by the IAF). Additional squadrons of XRSAM (S-400 class), BMD investments (owned by the IAF and will report to the AD command). Apart from this, they will be retiring around 100-120 Jaguars. So to grow beyond current numbers in an affordable fashion, they need the MWF quick. The AMCA needs a new engine to grow beyond 2 squadrons (40 units), and that program is yet to pick up or be properly funded. As such given the infra investment a second batch of Rafales is a no-brainer but even it is too expensive as a 114 a/c program with TOT plus extra aircraft for the Navy, hence the MWF.
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
KaranM, great set of posts above. +108 to you!
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
The problem I see with change in plans is that they do not inspire confidence. A few months ago the (then) ACM said that "the IAF has also fully endorsed the LCA-MK2". The current ACM never even mentioned it by its name, IAF busy with ASQRs for MRFA. So what changed in these months apart from the leadership? What would the next ACM think? When did IAF has become so blind wrt strategic vision? Is GoI onboard? Was there an comprehensive reevaluation as the current 'vision' encompasses such a drastic change? I doubt it because the change has been directly wrt the ACM change. I am not even sure the economics of operating 7 squadrons of AMCA, which might be used against it at a later point in favour of some Cheque-mate.
One of the most urgent demands that actually support imports if necessary are AWACS, as we have less than that of PAF today! But apparently that could wait till A320s are studied and Netra 2/3x are deployed after testing. If we need something quick and decent, Mk1As, if necessary Mk1Bs (with GE F414s) could be asked for (just as "Gripen Demo" flew with F414s). Changes are necessary, but are much less than for Mk2, and the proof comes directly from the Gripen programme itself. With higher power availability, the payload, power for radar, EW would significantly improve too. Range can be augmented by refuellers. Instead now were are saddled with many variants of a/c for our limited budget and limited IAF's disposition. Looking at the current destruction to atmanirbhar policy even for the items under negative import list, we don't need to doubt the resolve of the GoI as well.
One of the most urgent demands that actually support imports if necessary are AWACS, as we have less than that of PAF today! But apparently that could wait till A320s are studied and Netra 2/3x are deployed after testing. If we need something quick and decent, Mk1As, if necessary Mk1Bs (with GE F414s) could be asked for (just as "Gripen Demo" flew with F414s). Changes are necessary, but are much less than for Mk2, and the proof comes directly from the Gripen programme itself. With higher power availability, the payload, power for radar, EW would significantly improve too. Range can be augmented by refuellers. Instead now were are saddled with many variants of a/c for our limited budget and limited IAF's disposition. Looking at the current destruction to atmanirbhar policy even for the items under negative import list, we don't need to doubt the resolve of the GoI as well.
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
The economics of developing 7 squadrons of AMCA made locally is in the same ballpark as making 6 squadrons of Tejas. A seven squadron AMCA force is affordable - a twenty or thirty squadron force, significantly less so.basant wrote:I am not even sure the economics of operating 7 squadrons of AMCA, which might be used against it at a later point in favour of some Cheque-mate.
IAF intends to ask for 2 more Phalcons.One of the most urgent demands that actually support imports if necessary are AWACS, as we have less than that of PAF today! But apparently that could wait till A320s are studied and Netra 2/3x are deployed after testing.
At this point you are asking for a quasi MWF. If the IAF wont wait for a significantly more capable MWF why would they accept a Mk1B.If we need something quick and decent, Mk1As, if necessary Mk1Bs (with GE F414s) could be asked for (just as "Gripen Demo" flew with F414s). Changes are necessary, but are much less than for Mk2, and the proof comes directly from the Gripen programme itself. With higher power availability, the payload, power for radar, EW would significantly improve too.
We are short of full blown refuellers, which are also vulnerable to interdiction, hence IAFs desire for fighters with long legs.Range can be augmented by refuellers.
There is no destruction of the atmanirbhar policy, it remains in place. If you choose to walk around with a doom and gloom outlook, that's your choice but lets be more circumspect about making policy predictions.Instead now were are saddled with many variants of a/c for our limited budget and limited IAF's disposition. Looking at the current destruction to atmanirbhar policy even for the items under negative import list, we don't need to doubt the resolve of the GoI as well.
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
MRFA is basically a rehash of the failed MRCA procurement and has been talked about for years now. If the IAF is really serious about it like they claim to be how is it that even the ASQR's are not yet finalized? How different can they be from the original MRCA ASQRs? Leaving aside the financial question and GOI intent, what exactly has the IAF been doing till now?Karan M wrote:The CAS and his staff are optimists and haven't checked the GOIs intent or the state of the budget. All the ASQRs in the world cannot get us the funds necessary for 114 MRFA with TOT when a mere 36 Rafale cost us 9 Billion Euro.m_saini wrote:https://twitter.com/ReviewVayu/status/1 ... 9564658692
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
Sea Guardian is a Navy acquisition, why is it IAF's job to fund it?Karan M wrote:... Next year, the IAF's acquisition money ... will go for the 10 Sea Guardian drones ...
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
I don't know from which article KSingh got the screenshot of this from. Hopefully he can post the full article...
Just see the timeline. The sheer tragedy of this. One can either cry or laugh. I would rather do the latter...
https://twitter.com/KSingh_1469/status/ ... 99816?s=20 --->
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
We can understand how fast papers move in MOD with the emergency order for 21 Mig-29s
The Emergency order was first discussed in 18-19 and order ......
The Emergency order was first discussed in 18-19 and order ......
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
Emergency Purchase according to Annexure II, clause 3 and sub clause 2b cannot be finalized till at least 60 months have passed since the first draft of the emergency purchase was presented.
At least 4 different teams of succeeding bureaucrat babus or 3 different defense ministers have to eat the free samosa's before signing on the dotted line.
At least 4 different teams of succeeding bureaucrat babus or 3 different defense ministers have to eat the free samosa's before signing on the dotted line.
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
30 units, 10 each per service, customized per each services requirements. Hafta for S-400 in part.Roop wrote:Sea Guardian is a Navy acquisition, why is it IAF's job to fund it?Karan M wrote:... Next year, the IAF's acquisition money ... will go for the 10 Sea Guardian drones ...
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
A good acquisition though, don't you think Karan ji?Karan M wrote:30 units, 10 each per service, customized per each services requirements. Hafta for S-400 in part.Roop wrote:
Sea Guardian is a Navy acquisition, why is it IAF's job to fund it?
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
Though the question wasn't directed at me, the Sea Guardian drones are a good acquisition (though pricey) but with a caveat. They're good in uncontested areas: ocean surveillance during peacetime, watching LOC/LAC, hunting jihadis etc.
During wartime, against a decent Air Defense network, they lack the basic ability to protect themselves. At $100 Million each, that will be a huge loss
During wartime, against a decent Air Defense network, they lack the basic ability to protect themselves. At $100 Million each, that will be a huge loss
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
^ agree
Another way to look at it - Sea Guardian better as hafta than Super Hornet..
Another way to look at it - Sea Guardian better as hafta than Super Hornet..
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
Very few drones will stand up to a competent ADS. Sea Guardian is a welcome addition due to its ability to relieve much higher cost platforms like the P-8s of many duties and air time. Sensors are really high quality and endurance is remarkable - very good asset to own.Prem Kumar wrote:Though the question wasn't directed at me, the Sea Guardian drones are a good acquisition (though pricey) but with a caveat. They're good in uncontested areas: ocean surveillance during peacetime, watching LOC/LAC, hunting jihadis etc.
During wartime, against a decent Air Defense network, they lack the basic ability to protect themselves. At $100 Million each, that will be a huge loss
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
Drag & drop this into a new window if you want to read the article....
https://twitter.com/rahulsinghx/status/ ... oEYmRSgWWA ---> Blue, the US Navy F-18 pilot, warned me that if I threw up, my call sign would be Puke! The barf bags remained unused at the end of both my F-16 & F-18 sorties. It's been 13 years!
https://twitter.com/rahulsinghx/status/ ... oEYmRSgWWA ---> Blue, the US Navy F-18 pilot, warned me that if I threw up, my call sign would be Puke! The barf bags remained unused at the end of both my F-16 & F-18 sorties. It's been 13 years!
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
https://twitter.com/rotorfocus/status/1 ... 46851?s=21
So 78 jets for Indonesia (42 Rafales, 36 F15) for $20bn, not including weapons and IAF wants to buy 114 such jets with weapons and made in India for less than $20bn
Are the IAF generals smoking something?
MRFA is doomed to fail just like MMRCA, we will be in the same position in 15 years time as 10 years ago but MoD and IAF officials will keep promising the silver bullet is on the way
At some point either by design or incompetence all this piecemeal and pie in the sky stuff is playing directly into China’s hands. A bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush. And when India does buy it’s pitiful amounts (sub 30 units for most large items)
So 78 jets for Indonesia (42 Rafales, 36 F15) for $20bn, not including weapons and IAF wants to buy 114 such jets with weapons and made in India for less than $20bn
Are the IAF generals smoking something?
MRFA is doomed to fail just like MMRCA, we will be in the same position in 15 years time as 10 years ago but MoD and IAF officials will keep promising the silver bullet is on the way
At some point either by design or incompetence all this piecemeal and pie in the sky stuff is playing directly into China’s hands. A bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush. And when India does buy it’s pitiful amounts (sub 30 units for most large items)
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
The F-15 ID notice is a State department/DSCA notification of a potential sale. The way it works is that Boeing supplies the state department with a package for which it seeks approval. State approves it and estimates the cost. That package is not what Boeing offers to a customer, or the specifics that a potential customer selects to negotiate further. It is an "up to" amount not the actual cost of a contract. If it were the latter US firms could never compete as their competitors will know of what their offer is and the dollar amount as soon as the DOS approves of a potential sale and notifies Congress. No other western nation has a similar setup of public notifications of approved specifics so this would be a major barrier if they were posting specifics of actual offers or pre-negotiation contracts.
But each time this happens the internet goes on a frenzy trying to calculate unit cost based on a notification..Notifications are not contracts. Contractors and even countries seek approval for a lot more than what they actually decide to procure or offer to a potential customer and the US system doesn't handicap its suppliers by forcing them to disclose their exact offer and its specifics publicly so that their competitors can get a heads up potential months, or years before a contract is signed .
Expect the F-15EX derivatives to cost about the same as the Rafale with some variations. We know exactly what the aircraft costs (about $100 Million) which is comparable or slightly more than what it costs Dassault to sell the basic Rafale. F-15EX is larger, and heavier so should cost about 15% more per unit than a comparable Super Hornet or Rafale.
The baseline F-15EX costs $97 Million fly-away in FY-22 for the US Air Force. This will be slightly less due to economies of scale since they've increased orders from 12 to 17 after Congress added 5 aircraft. But its roughly in the $100 Million ballpark.
But each time this happens the internet goes on a frenzy trying to calculate unit cost based on a notification..Notifications are not contracts. Contractors and even countries seek approval for a lot more than what they actually decide to procure or offer to a potential customer and the US system doesn't handicap its suppliers by forcing them to disclose their exact offer and its specifics publicly so that their competitors can get a heads up potential months, or years before a contract is signed .
Expect the F-15EX derivatives to cost about the same as the Rafale with some variations. We know exactly what the aircraft costs (about $100 Million) which is comparable or slightly more than what it costs Dassault to sell the basic Rafale. F-15EX is larger, and heavier so should cost about 15% more per unit than a comparable Super Hornet or Rafale.
The baseline F-15EX costs $97 Million fly-away in FY-22 for the US Air Force. This will be slightly less due to economies of scale since they've increased orders from 12 to 17 after Congress added 5 aircraft. But its roughly in the $100 Million ballpark.
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
Notedbrar_w wrote:The F-15 ID notice is a State department/DSCA notification of a potential sale. The way it works is that Boeing supplies the state department with a package for which it seeks approval. State approves it and estimates the cost. That package is not what Boeing offers to a customer, or the specifics that a potential customer selects to negotiate further. It is an "up to" amount not the actual cost of a contract. If it were the latter US firms could never compete as their competitors will know of what their offer is and the dollar amount as soon as the DOS approves of a potential sale. But each time this happens the internet goes on a frenzy trying to calculate unit cost based on a notification..Notifications are not contracts. Contractors and even countries seek approval for a lot more than what they actually decide to procure or offer to a potential customer and the US system doesn't handicap its suppliers by forcing them to disclose their exact offer and its specifics publicly so that their competitors can get a heads up potential months, or years before a contract is signed .
Expect the F-15EX derivatives to cost about the same as the Rafale with some variations. We know exactly what the aircraft costs (about $100 Million) which is comparable or slightly more than what it costs Dassault to sell the basic Rafale. F-15EX is larger, and heavier so should cost about 15% more per unit than a comparable Super Hornet or Rafale.
But the point stands, even if this cost is slightly inflated it’s still without weapons, that’s should make up an additional $2-3 billion for a 36 unit order. Either way all up cost of 80 new 2 engine jets is in the ballpark of 20 billion, IAF wants nearly 50% more than that (quantity wise) AND for most of the jets to be assembled in India (which adds costs) and offsets on top of that. If the cost isn’t $30 billion by the time they are in a position to order the jets (2026?2027?) I’ll be amazed.
It’s a colossal amount of money to throw at a foreign OEM when Indian projects are run on a shoe string
there isn’t a justification for the MRFA nor feasibility it’ll happen. It’s 2022 and still it hasn’t moved beyond RFI, meanwhile every Tom, Dick and Harry is ordering Rafales leaving IAF far behind.
Order 54 more Rafales (+ some for the navy if essential) off the shelf in the next 18 months and be done with it. They’ll be the last fighters India ever needs to import. Rest of the fighter budget must flow into Indian birds.
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
I think the point I was trying to make is that you can't determine the offer, or derive a unit cost based on DSCA notifications. It is simply not possible because you do not know what the commercial vendor (Boeing in this case) is offering. You don't have enough information to determine the magnitude of "inflation" between the approved package, and what the OE actually offers to a potential customer. This thing include something like $4.4 Billion in related equipment, service and logistical costs. For example, the Finland F-35 notification was way above the $10 Billion contract ceiling that Finland imposed and the JPO and Lockheed with their F-35 offer (64 a/c) ended up offering the lowest cost offer to Finland amongst all competitors (that included Rafale, SH, Typhoon and Gripen). You can't intelligently work your way up or down the dollar amount and back into a unit cost based on DSCA notices. Their job is to present Congress with a set of equipment that could potentially be offered and its estimated dollar amount. Neither Boeing, nor the DOD is obligated to share with Congress the exact package of equipment they offer or what competitive pricing strategy a OE may chose to use as part of its sales campaign. I've previously shared examples of actual contracted amounts being 50% the amount estimated by DSCA notice. In the end whether it is the SH, Rafale or F-15EX or any advanced F-15 derivative, the unit cost would be within 15-20% of each other. The weapons package will depend on what the user choses but here the US package will be substantially lower because most of its weapons are produced at very large annual quantities compared to the small production run of French and some European weapons.KSingh wrote:But the point stands, even if this cost is slightly inflated it’s still without weapons, that’s should make up an additional $2-3 billion for a 36 unit order
Here's a tweet that shows that Boeing and Indonesia have not yet determined even the basic configuration so the point of having a defined product, package and unit cost is way into the future and you cannot make any sort of inteligent determination from a DSCA notification.
With F-15ID featuring the #EPAWSS EW suite previously only associated with F-15EX,
@BoeingDefense
tells me that as the exact configuration for #Indonesia has yet to be determined, it's not yet in a position to say what the chief differentiators between the two variants are.
Last edited by brar_w on 11 Feb 2022 23:34, edited 1 time in total.
Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
Furthermore Tom, Dick and Harry have much smaller defence budgets compared to India and yet have CAPEX expenditures which are equal to or higher than India. Just look at Indonesia or Japan or Egypt. IMO India's CAPEX vs Revenue expenditures are out of whack and there is no comprehensive strategy of renewing capital stock to mitigate obsolescence . It's all ad hoc, fighting fire perpetually by the seats of your pants.KSingh wrote:there isn’t a justification for the MRFA nor feasibility it’ll happen. It’s 2022 and still it hasn’t moved beyond RFI, meanwhile every Tom, Dick and Harry is ordering Rafales leaving IAF far behind.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III
ldev ji, I don't need to remind you of the size of indian military and the corresponding pension bills.ldev wrote:Furthermore Tom, Dick and Harry have much smaller defence budgets compared to India and yet have CAPEX expenditures which are equal to or higher than India. Just look at Indonesia or Japan or Egypt. IMO India's CAPEX vs Revenue expenditures are out of whack and there is no comprehensive strategy of renewing capital stock to mitigate obsolescence . It's all ad hoc, fighting fire perpetually by the seats of your pants.KSingh wrote:there isn’t a justification for the MRFA nor feasibility it’ll happen. It’s 2022 and still it hasn’t moved beyond RFI, meanwhile every Tom, Dick and Harry is ordering Rafales leaving IAF far behind.