Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 17 Dec 2021 14:49

This is the wiki entry for Covaxin:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covaxin

Can someone please explain what the confidence intervals under the Medical uses - effectiveness section mean? Why is the number negative for the first dose?

Interestingly only delta variant numbers are given for which the vaccine wasn’t designed for.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 17 Dec 2021 15:02

As a mango, the fact that even now no one in the circles of power in the West is ready to think in the lines of treatment and other measures to increase the threat levels in infected persons says a lot. These people are basically finding a easy way of lockdown and vaccines good as it gives them near absolute power over all the people.

While we in Bharat are largely open and controlled our situation much better, the West failed time and again. It does not stand to logic as they have better facilities and better administrative structure.

S_Madhukar · Post by **S_Madhukar** » 17 Dec 2021 17:14

I think in history this may well be the period that is marked as the definitive decline of the West... starting with its sleepy head... one would think Unkil would have been global saviour in no time instead it limps from crisis to crisis and it Oiropean lackeys are clueless as well... ultimately some form of plutocracy brings down empires and here we seen that from the pharma plutocracy... now I hope Hollywood doesn't make any more alien movies with Unkil to the global rescue... actually wait there is one already coming soon...

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 17 Dec 2021 23:31

Omicron ‘markedly resistant’ to COVID vaccines, booster shots: Columbia University study https://www.pennlive.com/nation-world/2 ... study.html

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 17 Dec 2021 23:32

WHO grants EUA to Covavax produced by Serum Institute of India, second Indian vaccine to get WHO approval, it uses a unique subunit tech where pathogenic small part is inserted in another virus https://www.who.int/news/item/17-12-202 ... -countries

disha · Post by **disha** » 18 Dec 2021 03:33

disha wrote:Is my understanding correct? If omicron is turning out infectious but not fatal, it is a virus that is becoming endemic like seasonal flu?

Looking at the UK chart, the infection is very high but the causalities are low.

https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/expl ... than-delta

Evidence so far suggests that Omicron may be less severe than Delta and other variants.

The same evidence can perhaps give important clues to health authorities on how to proceed as they prepare for another possible wave of the virus.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 18 Dec 2021 04:20

^^^I would still exercise great caution given this virus. Just when we think it has abated, it surges again and having lost family members in India between April and May - I am humbled. The R value of the Omicron variant is 3 to 4, given this and coronavirus ability to mutate relatively quick, we could still see high hospitalizations and deaths.

We’ll know more by the end of this month.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 18 Dec 2021 04:27

Imperial College UK
early data on Omicron shows it is as deadly as Delta
Similar finding in Columbia US study.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 18 Dec 2021 04:32

Omicron largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses according to Imperial's latest report.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/ ... from-past/
The new report (Report 49) from the Imperial College London COVID-19 response team estimates that the risk of reinfection with the Omicron variant is 5.4 times greater than that of the Delta variant. This implies that the protection against reinfection by Omicron afforded by past infection may be as low as 19%.

Researchers estimate the growth and immune escape of the Omicron variant in England. They used data from the UKHSA and NHS for all PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in England who had taken a COVID test between November 29th and December 11th 2021.

This level of immune evasion means that Omicron poses a major, imminent threat to public health.

The study includes people identified as having Omicron infection due to an S gene target failure (SGTF), as well as people with genotype data that confirmed Omicron infection. Overall, 196,463 people without S gene target failure (likely to be infected with another variant) and 11,329 cases with it (likely to be infected with Omicron) were included in the SGTF analysis, as well as 122,063 Delta and 1,846 Omicron cases in the genotype analysis.

Growth of Omicron
Firstly, the report looks at factors associated with testing positive for Omicron compared to non-Omicron (mostly Delta) cases. The results suggest that the proportion of Omicron among all COVID cases was doubling every 2 days up to December 11th, estimated from both S-gene Target Failure and genotype data. Based on these results they estimate that the reproduction number (R) of Omicron was above 3 over the period studied.

The distribution of Omicron by age, region and ethnicity currently differs markedly from Delta, with 18–29-year-olds, residents in the London region, and those of African ethnicity having significantly higher rates of infection with Omicron relative to Delta. London is substantially ahead of other English regions in Omicron frequency.

Omicron transmission is not yet uniformly distributed across the population. However, the researchers note that given its immune evasion, the age distribution of Omicron infection in the coming weeks may continue to differ from that of Delta.

The study finds no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta, judged by either the proportion of people testing positive who report symptoms, or by the proportion of cases seeking hospital care after infection. However, hospitalisation data remains very limited at this time.

Reinfection rates
To assess the impact of Omicron on reinfection rates the researchers used genotype data, since even prior to Omicron, reinfection was correlated with negative S gene Target Failure data, likely due to random PCR target failure caused by the lower viral loads associated with reinfections.

Controlling for vaccine status, age, sex, ethnicity, asymptomatic status, region and specimen date, Omicron was associated with a 5.40 (95% CI: 4.38-6.63) fold higher risk of reinfection compared with Delta. To put this into context, in the pre-Omicron era, the UK “SIREN” study of COVID infection in healthcare workers estimated that prior infection afforded 85% protection against a second COVID infection over 6 months. The reinfection risk estimated in the current study suggests this protection has fallen to 19% (95%CI: 0-27%) against an Omicron infection.

The researchers found a significantly increased risk of developing a symptomatic Omicron case compared to Delta for those who were two or more weeks past their second vaccine dose, and two or more weeks past their booster dose (for AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines).

Depending on the estimates used for vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection from the Delta variant, this translates into vaccine effectiveness estimates against symptomatic Omicron infection of between 0% and 20% after two doses, and between 55% and 80% after a booster dose. Similar estimates were obtained using genotype data, albeit with greater uncertainty.

Prof Neil Ferguson from Imperial College London said: “This study provides further evidence of the very substantial extent to which Omicron can evade prior immunity given by both infection or vaccination. This level of immune evasion means that Omicron poses a major, imminent threat to public health.”

Prof Azra Ghani from Imperial College London said: “Quantifying reinfection risk and vaccine effectiveness against Omicron is essential for modelling the likely future trajectory of the Omicron wave and the potential impact of vaccination and other public health interventions.”

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 18 Dec 2021 05:04

Serum Institute’s COVID-19 vaccine Covovax gets WHO approval for emergency use

WHO approves SII's Covovax for emergency use

OpIndia Staff,
17 December, 2021.

The World Health Organisation(WHO) on Friday approved the emergency use for Serum Institute of India’s Covovax, vaccine developed by the Serum Institute of India (SII) in partnership with the US-based Novavax, for showing excellent safety and efficacy. With this approval, Covovax became the 9th Covid-19 vaccine to be permitted for emergency use, providing a boost to ongoing efforts to vaccinate more people in lower-income countries.

“This is yet another milestone in our fight against Covid-19. Covovax is now WHO approved for emergency use, showing excellent safety and efficacy. Thank you all for a great collaboration,” Adar Poonawalla tweeted.

Adar Poonawalla (@adarpoonawalla) December 17, 2021

This is yet another milestone in our fight against COVID-19, Covovax is now W.H.O. approved for emergency use, showing excellent safety and efficacy. Thank you all for a great collaboration, @Novavax @WHO @GaviSeth @Gavi @gatesfoundation https://t.co/7C8RVZa3Y4

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 18 Dec 2021 06:13

A key question is does infection with omicron confer cross immunity to delta.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 18 Dec 2021 07:55

IndraD wrote:Omicron largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses according to Imperial's latest report.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/ ... from-past/
The study finds no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta, judged by either the proportion of people testing positive who report symptoms, or by the proportion of cases seeking hospital care after infection. However, hospitalisation data remains very limited at this time.

This sounds contrary to everything said about Omicron so far, esp. from SA data. WTF

If this Omicron is as severe as delta, its a Dr. Evil's dream come true weaponized virus (high transmissibility + severity). Horrible news, if true. I'm not so sure about Imperial and Lancet types anymore.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 18 Dec 2021 09:15

Cain Marko wrote:
IndraD wrote:Omicron largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses according to Imperial's latest report.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/ ... from-past/
The study finds no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta, judged by either the proportion of people testing positive who report symptoms, or by the proportion of cases seeking hospital care after infection. However, hospitalisation data remains very limited at this time.
This sounds contrary to everything said about Omicron so far, esp. from SA data. WTF If this Omicron is as severe as delta, its a Dr. Evil's dream come true weaponized virus (high transmissibility + severity). Horrible news, if true. I'm not so sure about Imperial and Lancet types anymore.

I think this may be ruse to sell Pfizer pill

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 18 Dec 2021 09:24

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 18 Dec 2021 09:27

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 18 Dec 2021 09:46

vijayk wrote:I think this may be ruse to sell Pfizer pill

You may very well be right. But isn't there a week or more lag between infection and death? We'll know soon enough if people in the UK start flooding hospitals and morgues. God forbid.

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 18 Dec 2021 13:30

Gennova seems to be making good progress towards India's first mRNA vaccine. If it turns out that mRNA vaccines are a better platform for a booster shot, then this vaccine cannot come fast enough!

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 20 Dec 2021 00:50

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... ays-study/

Cambridge study led by Ravi Gupta indicates
-less severe lung pathology by Omicron
-more immune evasive
-third dose of Oxford/AZ (&mRNA) effectively neutralises it

https://twitter.com/GuptaR_lab/status/1 ... 46628?s=20 thread

SinghS · Post by **SinghS** » 20 Dec 2021 07:42

Hi all, I am looking for reliable and authentic data on Covid-19 symptoms.

I am preparing a list of all Covid-19 strains and their symptoms displayed; when a person decides to first visit a doctor. I also want to look at period of discomfort they had before they visited the doctor.

I would like to do this for a both vaccinated and unvaccinated. I would like to conduct this study over a sample population of 5000 representing various age groups. I am ignoring demographics as of now to simplify acquisition of data.

Can any BRFite connect me to the right people/organization to help me get this data? It has been very difficult to collect data for study.

Mine is a very small team of 2 people team (privately funded ) trying to build a safety net for school kids and offices. Any help from well connected among us will be of a great help.

tenaliram · Post by **tenaliram** » 20 Dec 2021 09:16

@Amber G. Could I get the link to your twitter feed? I used to find your articles, analysis and links very informative and I am not sure if you have stopped posting here and only post on twitter now. Thank you in advance.

vish_mulay · Post by **vish_mulay** » 20 Dec 2021 09:37

https://www.cityam.com/modellers-exclud ... ge-expert/

Modellers exclude South Africa data indicating Omicron is milder than Delta variant, reveals SAGE expert

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 20 Dec 2021 21:03

https://zeenews.india.com/india/bharat- ... 21096.html
Bharat Biotech seeks DCGI nod for India's 1st intranasal COVID vaccine
Bharat Biotech submitted a phase 3 clinical trial application to the Drugs Controller General of India.

New Delhi: Indigenous vaccine Covaxin maker Bharat Biotech on Monday (December 20) announced that it has submitted a phase 3 clinical trial application to the Drugs Controller General of India (DCGI) for the world’s first intranasal COVID-19 vaccine.

"We have submitted phase 3 clinical trial application to DCGI (Drugs Controller General of India)," a Bharat Biotech spokesperson said in a statement.

The intranasal vaccine, produced by Bharat Biotech, is a booster dose that will be easier to administer in mass vaccination campaigns, the corporation added.

The Intranasal vaccine has the potential to prevent coronavirus transmission.

According to Reuters, Indian vaccine makers are lobbying the government to authorise boosters as supplies have far outstripped demand, but the health ministry said there is no immediate plan to approve boosters and the priority remains complete vaccination of eligible adults.

However, India is yet to approve the use of Bharat Biotech`s intranasal vaccine, BBV154.

In August, BBV154 had received regulatory approval for mid-to late-stage trials.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 20 Dec 2021 23:01

That's great news. I wasn't aware Bharat Biotech were that far along with their clinical trials of BBV154. A game-changer if they're able to get this into the market in volume quickly.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 21 Dec 2021 06:00

vish_mulay wrote:https://www.cityam.com/modellers-exclud ... ge-expert/
Modellers exclude South Africa data indicating Omicron is milder than Delta variant, reveals SAGE expert

Very very strange. Why wouldnt you consider a spectrum of scenarios to make decisions? I understand the need to prepare for the worst, but there is also a need to weigh full spectrum options.

vish_mulay · Post by **vish_mulay** » 21 Dec 2021 07:01

What is happening is that everyone is in CYA mode. Out here in NSW Downunder, the number of patients hospitalized are ~300 as of today when more than 3000 new cases are identified daily. At the peak of the delta wave in Oct, ~1200 patients were hospitalized for around ~1500 daily cases reported. Out of 300 hospitalized, only 33 are in ICU. Considering Omni has become the most dominant strain in the USA as of yesterday, it will be interesting to see the US hospitalization trend in the next 7 days to make a judgment call. Overall, I am not convinced that we need to press the panic button. My in-laws in South Africa are back to work and routine life. No mass hospitalization, impending collapse, or increase mortality rate. No one took booster so far in my extended family and 3 members were down with Omni. 2 were asymptomatic and detected because of exposure surveillance and one had mild arthralgia and night sweats. All are recovering well. Everyone is double vaccinated with AstraZeneca.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 21 Dec 2021 07:16

vish_mulay wrote:What is happening is that everyone is in CYA mode. Out here in NSW Downunder, the number of patients hospitalized are ~300 as of today when more than 3000 new cases are identified daily. At the peak of the delta wave in Oct, ~1200 patients were hospitalized for around ~1500 daily cases reported. Out of 300 hospitalized, only 33 are in ICU. Considering Omni has become the most dominant strain in the USA as of yesterday, it will be interesting to see the US hospitalization trend in the next 7 days to make a judgment call. Overall, I am not convinced that we need to press the panic button. My in-laws in South Africa are back to work and routine life. No mass hospitalization, impending collapse, or increase mortality rate. No one took booster so far in my extended family and 3 members were down with Omni. 2 were asymptomatic and detected because of exposure surveillance and one had mild arthralgia and night sweats. All are recovering well. Everyone is double vaccinated with AstraZeneca.

very good news. Lets keep our fingers crossed

vish_mulay · Post by **vish_mulay** » 21 Dec 2021 07:59

Forgot to add that out of 33 admissions to the ICU, only 7 had one or more jabs of the vaccine. It is absolutely clear that vaccine works wonders to prevent serious complications and deaths due to covid including Omni in the large majority of the population.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 21 Dec 2021 08:30

In case anyone plans on getting vaccinated with mrna, there is interesting bit of data that is coming out: when the shot is delivered without aspiration (I think that means pulling the syringe back to confirm vein contact), the chances of causing myocarditis is 2.5x more. they always aspirate in Denmark, and their incidence of myocarditis is 2.5x lesser than other countries.
https://youtu.be/hkopHLQjtVQ

Less danger for liver, spleen and lungs.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 21 Dec 2021 16:59

From the above graphs on South Africa, the wave took only 3 weeks to the peak but the damage is somewhat muted from previous waves. I just hope the unvaccinated kids are not too affected.

vish_mulay · Post by **vish_mulay** » 21 Dec 2021 17:46

The SA graphs are quite interesting. Considering they are scaled to 1M population, the graph for hospitalisation is not tracing similar to the observed delta surge from June onwards. There is uptick for hospitalisation but most heartening data is that the death rate has remain flat. I don’t know what might have contributed to this low morbidity but whatever the explanation, similar circumstances are present in all around world. Herd immunity, mass vaccination could have masked the virulence of Omni, I am just hoping that it turns into natural vaccine virus to end this pandemic for good. Fingers crossed!

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 21 Dec 2021 20:30

How is India doing on 2nd dose? They should reduce the time lag from 12 weeks to 8 weeks.

Denmark, UK cases

While Denmark, UK seem to be doing OK with hospitalizations/deaths (we need little more time) but Germany is not doing that great.

vish_mulay · Post by **vish_mulay** » 22 Dec 2021 20:11

https://spectatorindex.com/2021/12/sout ... om-omicron

Omicron infections had an 80% lower odds of being admitted to hospital

In those who are hospitalized, the risk of severe disease does not differ

When compared to Delta infections, omicron infections were associated with a 70% lower odds of severe disease

Estimates that after South Africa’s third coronavirus wave, 60%-70% of individuals had evidence of previous infection

Say unclear whether decreased severity in this wave is due to greater levels of immunity in the community or inherently decreased virulence

Study acknowledges that it was conducted when omicron numbers were ‘small’ and ‘patients with milder symptoms were more likely to be admitted’

vish_mulay · Post by **vish_mulay** » 22 Dec 2021 20:23

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/100721122

Key points:

After a high of nearly 27,000 new cases nationwide on Thursday, the numbers dropped to about 15,424 on Tuesday
The Omicron strain is dominant in South Africa and is present in at least 89 countries worldwide
Professor Veronica Uekermann says movement over Christmas might cause cases to rise again

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 23 Dec 2021 03:47

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2 ... ts/360089/
US army developing a Universal vaccine against all possible variants of nCV

Walter Reed’s Spike Ferritin Nanoparticle COVID-19 vaccine, or SpFN, completed animal trials earlier this year with positive results. Phase 1 of human trials, which tested the vaccine against Omicron and the other variants, wrapped up this month, again with positive results that are undergoing final review, Dr. Kayvon Modjarrad, director of Walter Reed’s infectious diseases branch, said in an exclusive interview with Defense One. The new vaccine will still need to undergo phase 2 and phase 3 trials.

Unlike existing vaccines, Walter Reed’s SpFN uses a soccer ball-shaped protein with 24 faces for its vaccine, which allows scientists to attach the spikes of multiple coronavirus strains on different faces of the protein.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 23 Dec 2021 04:23

^^ Interesting to see how USArmy vaccine fares against the privately funded ones and their massive lobbyists.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 23 Dec 2021 07:12

vijayk wrote:How is India doing on 2nd dose? They should reduce the time lag from 12 weeks to 8 weeks.

56 cr fully vaccinated. We should start planning for boosters now. And hopefully start by Feb 1 for elderly.

Uk is giving boosters just after 3 months of second dose.

India will peak around Feb end. This is the time for up, punjab elections. Timing could not be worse.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 23 Dec 2021 18:12

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... t=business
Two doses and a booster of the Covid-19 vaccine made by China’s Sinovac fail to protect against omicron, study shows

Primus · Post by **Primus** » 23 Dec 2021 18:13

ABC News

Here is a news item doing the rounds on WA. Based on a study done by a Chennai group headed by one Prof. Ramanan Laxminarayan and reported in ABC news. According to this, India's death toll was 12 times higher than reported, at over 6 million people. They base these conclusions on the number of 'all cause mortality' during the study period in just one district - Chennai, and extrapolate it to the entire population of the country.

Modi-haters are celebrating this report as vindication that the BJP government was incompetent but fudging the data for optics and of course 'Mudi shud rejine'.

Anybody know anything about this Laxminarayan guy? This is his bio from what I can gather.

Ramanan Laxminarayan

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 23 Dec 2021 18:50

Primusji, this guy is a fraud. If you recall, he is the same guy that was given a platform at the beginning of epidemic in early 2020 by Darkha Butt and peddled the fiction that countless millions will die in streets. His organisation called CDEP or whatever was fraudulently using John Hopkins logo to give itself an air of respectability. Hopkins very publicly asked him not to do so.

After his prediction of millions dying in streets fell flat, he seems to have surfaced again trying to show that he was right all along by using dubious methodologies. Turned out that he is not even an epidemiologist, so take it for what it is worth.

https://www.opindia.com/2020/03/ramanan ... -interest/

Primus · Post by **Primus** » 23 Dec 2021 19:34

Thank you Tanaji. This does make a lot more sense. I do recall reading about this dude last year. However, the data is making many Modi-haters very happy. So unfortunate that in their hate for one person they are willing to accept such nonsense, even celebrating the loss of Indian lives - if they believe the numbers to be true that is.