Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

[vimal]

They still have only one runway?

[Rakesh]

Cain-ji, the best explanation of the S-400 I have read to date

https://twitter.com/TheZaiduLeaks/statu ... 52706?s=20 ---> General Bajwa asked how India's new S-400 works. I explained to him with an example. I told him to throw his one shoe at me. While the shoe was midair, I removed my both shoes & hit General Bajwa’s shoe. Then all three shoes landed on General Bajwa's face, causing eye injury. General Bajwa said he understood.

[Bala Vignesh]

They still have only one runway?

But the parallel taxiway can also operate as a runway in case of emergencies and exigencies.

[Cain Marko]

Cain-ji, the best explanation of the S-400 I have read to date

https://twitter.com/TheZaiduLeaks/statu ... 52706?s=20 ---> General Bajwa asked how India's new S-400 works. I explained to him with an example. I told him to throw his one shoe at me. While the shoe was midair, I removed my both shoes & hit General Bajwa’s shoe. Then all three shoes landed on General Bajwa's face, causing eye injury. General Bajwa said he understood.

[nachiket]

Manish_Sharma,

The S-400 is a questionable system. There maybe something to learn from Russian design and tactics with the S-400, but it is awfully expensive way of doing so when the same money can be better put towards adding more IAF layered SAM systems already in existence. If the IAF really wanted an import, another couple of EL/W-2090 systems may have been a better choice.

Every system is "questionable" if you decide to question it. Especially without any evidence. What you have indulged in so far is pure speculation which can be boiled down essentially to "Russian radars bad!".

[hgupta]

It seems to be a nice analysis of what conventional forces can fare against S-400s and what a 5th generation force can do against S400. I am not saying that we have to accept what the guy says in the video or accept the scenarios as it would happen in real life. For starters, USAF won't be attacking India. But the scenarios being played out does make you think how effective the S400 can be against current threats and upcoming future threats and what the IAF has to plan for. We can see how the PLAAF may attack India and how we can counter the threats to the S400s and vice versa.

Enjoy!

[Cain Marko]

^the USN scenario is interesting but quite lopsided. The s400 and a few Flankers are utterly outgunned.

The PLAAF otoh will have to deal with multiple S400 batteries (possibly overlapping) once they are all raised. With 2 batteries managing the entire western border, the PAF is quite out of the picture.

And lets not forget that the s400 works in tandem with lrsam, Akash and Spyder, not to mention a rather large contingent of fighters. Occasional pechoras and osa can't be discovered either. AEW coverage is also likely making undetected ingress, very hard.

If a few j20 get through ~ 200km, how many ARMs can it launch via it's internal bays? Even if the plane remains out of s400 engagement range, the missiles likely won't and will land up having to deal with a variety of SAMs from each of these systems. A single s400 has about 400 different Sams although it can probably guide about only half simultaneously. Now do the math. Note also that the IAF bought a rather insane amount of missiles in this deal. Probably to counter saturation type strikes.

The PLAAF will have to launch an extremely large force. Probably try to saturate using h6 bombers, lacms, and then send in the fighters with ARMs. This won't be easy considering the constraints it faces thanks to high altitudes they need to operate from.

Even if it is able to launch a very large barrage of CMs as an initial opener, these will be subsonic, and could be intercepted by a variety of assets as described above. The second wave via fighters will have to deal with IAF fighters.

A purely stealthy force will probably have a better chance, but in order to maintain stealth, they can only carry very few largish ARMs. And these can be detected and engaged by the s400 at decent ranges.

No sir, their job just became a LOT harder. Make no mistake. For $5 billion, this is a LOT of capability.

[Karan M]

A single S-400 battery can engage 10 targets simultaneously. Two can engage 20, a regiment can have upto 8 batteries but 2 is a more reasonable number. On Feb 19th, the entire PAF flotilla was 24 aircraft. Problem for the opponent is that its not going to be merely S-400, but likely (at least in several cases) MRSAM too. And Akash as well for the close in defence. So the number of targets engaged will be >>10. Add in IAF fighters as well, and as far as air breathing targets go, many expensive assets (aircraft and munitions) are going to be rendered useless or mission killed if not destroyed outright. That's the real advantage of SAM systems. They attrit opponent capability by providing layered defenses.

But as can be seen a handful of S-400s don't stop the PAF or any competent AF. We need to be realistic. They just make its task harder. The main task of the S-400 would be to force both force multipliers and regular PAF aircraft out of their ideal sensor coverage and PGM launch envelopes, reducing their fleet effectiveness and also making them more vulnerable to IAF counter attacks. If the fighters are trying to avoid a SAM attack and their command and control center is likewise occupied, it becomes easier for the IAF to mount aircraft attacks.

Having said that, the flexibility offered by fighters is something else which is why adding more aircraft numbers should be our first priority.

[AkshaySG]

Just as a thought experiment , If an order were to come to say ground/retire all Mig-21 aircrafts within a few months , How much of an impact would it make on IAF and its readiness .

In the immediate term would we have enough Su-30s and other airframes that can take up CAP and intercept duties ? ... We would need to re-position some squadrons from say Sulur or Thanjavur to make up nos , Probably repurpose some squadrons to other duties etc etc but its not an altogether impossible ask ? ... Obviously other aircrafts would need to be ordered to make up this gap but we should be able stretch a couple of years like this by the time they start getting delivered

Because at some point the losses of life in this airframe surely have to start becoming unacceptable or slide further down the cost benefit scale, Yes fighter pilots have an inherently dangerous job and they all of the risks and it is impossible to have zero crashes but this is on a whole different level .


If this keeps going for another 4-5 years we won't need to retire the Mig-21 , because there won't be any airframes left to retire

[SriKumar]

I have to believe that these crashes take a toll on all Mig-21airmen and more so, their families. Literally all the aircraft that crashed were deemed airworthy (otherwise they would not be cleared to fly). So a Mig-21 pilot's family will not know if a pilot will return from flying an airworthy craft that day. It must wreak a toll on them not knowing how that day will turn out (day after day).

[Prem Kumar]

Correct. 5 crashes in 2021 alone, with 3 good men lost! That's just insane.

What is a Commission Of Inquiry going to find? If they had found anything substantial and root causes fixed, the 4th or 5th crashes wouldn't have happened.

The only logical explanation is one which needs no COI. I.e. Mig-21s are not airworthy because they are too old and too risky to fly in. While they have served us well, right upto Balakot, its time to bid them goodbye. Replace them with Tejas-Mk1.

But I am 100% sure the IAF won't do that because of reasons I mentioned in the Flight Safety forum. There is no accountability demanded of the IAF top brass for their errors of omission & commission that have led to pilots dying on their watch.

[Mort Walker]

If the order of S-400 was cut in half to about $2.7B, that would have bought at least 4 squadrons of the Tejas MkIA.

[Kakarat]

Even cancelling the order for Predator drones could ......

The reason for lack of order beyond 83 is not due to lack of money but intent, so i think its better we stop this if we don't buy this we can buy Tejas

[Mort Walker]

Even cancelling the order for Predator drones could ......

Absolutely. Cancelling both the S-400 and Predator at this time and putting the money into production of the Tejas MK1A would be the best thing the IAF could do.

[Kakarat]

Even cancelling the order for Predator drones could ......

Absolutely. Cancelling both the S-400 and Predator at this time and putting the money into production of the Tejas MK1A would be the best thing the IAF could do.

Can Tejas fire SAM from ground?
Can Tejas fly 14+hrs without pilot for surveillance?

If it can then we can cancel all others and buy only Tejas

[fanne]

But irrespective of what is said, GOI has a great opportunity IF IAF itself said that Tejas MK1A is not a replacement of Mig 21 but an augmentation of capability. - use that logic and say that GOI wants to replace 100 or so of Mig 21 with Tejas MK1A, and is ordering an additional 100 Tejas. It is purely a political decision, IAF has no role in it (not that GOI has to justify IAF, in the past, SU30MKI etc. have been bought over the head of IAF). They are doing that to improve public confidence in IAF and do not want to face blowback because of the obsolete plane that is now crashing at an alarming rate. With extra 100 planes order, have some additional Tejas lines built.

[Karan M]

Even cancelling the order for Predator drones could ......

Absolutely. Cancelling both the S-400 and Predator at this time and putting the money into production of the Tejas MK1A would be the best thing the IAF could do.

Tejas doesn't have a 400km or 250km missile to hold PAF /PLAAF at bay outside PGM launch ranges.

[konaseema]

It is for the IAF leadership to wake up from their MRFA wet dream and put their faith behind our Tejas program. Demand the Indian government to purchase 2 - 3 more squadrons of Rafale and be done with it. 6 Squadrons of Tejas Mk1A will arrest the dwindling number of fighter squadrons. UCAVs and Missile Defense are essential to our national security and Tejas is not a replacement for those.

[Mort Walker]

Absolutely. Cancelling both the S-400 and Predator at this time and putting the money into production of the Tejas MK1A would be the best thing the IAF could do.

Tejas doesn't have a 400km or 250km missile to hold PAF /PLAAF at bay outside PGM launch ranges.

Su-30MKI launching a Brahmos on 08 DEC 2021, but it isn't an anti-aircraft missile; however, it does give an indication that other missiles of higher weight could be used.

Annual budgets are limited. Deferring expensive new foreign acquisitions for 2 years in favor of ramping up Tejas Mk1A would go a long way toward improving IAF flight safety and the morale of flight crews who now operate the Mig-21. Maybe that's not important to the IAF?

There will be a national security crisis every few years and then calls for emergency foreign acquisitions.

[Bishwa]

Just as a thought experiment , If an order were to come to say ground/retire all Mig-21 aircrafts within a few months , How much of an impact would it make on IAF and its readiness .

In 1986 the MiG21 M fleet was grounded for 3 months after a series of crashes. This was a fleet of 100 MiG21Ms . Additionally 300 MiGs were basically inspected top to bottom. So grounding a fleet for a prolonged duration is not unprecedented.

[Cain Marko]

Su-30MKI launching a Brahmos on 08 DEC 2021, but it isn't an anti-aircraft missile; however, it does give an indication that other missiles of higher weight could be used..

While I agree with the general premise that more mk1 should've been bought, fwiw... There were some noises coming out that mki/Brahmos might be used as an anti aew platform.

[Bishwa]

FYI...Rahul Bedi article. But FWIW...

Hopeful of a CAATSA Bypass, India Looks to Bolster Air Defence With Russian S-400
https://thewire.in/security/hopeful-of- ... sian-s-400
18 Nov 2021

'Rahul Bedi's assertion that PAF aircraft will be under surveillance from S400 at 600KM from take off is naive and ill informed. It does not consider the impact of the earths curvature, mountains on line on sight

[Roop]

Absolutely. Cancelling both the S-400 and Predator at this time and putting the money into production of the Tejas MK1A would be the best thing the IAF could do.

Wrong!! Cancelling S-400 and Predator would be the worst, the most reckless and foolish thing that IAF could do. Most of the Mig-21 bashing I am seeing on this thread is nothing but ill-informed whining, as if every deshbhakt on this forum knows more about air-defence and battle-planning than the IAF and various Indian military staff.

You could ground the Mig-21, order ten thousand Tejas and still have nothing to show for it. Those extra Tejas you order would not show up for 3 years at least, and in the mean time (under this scenario) the Mig-21s would be sitting idle on the ground and IAF would be even worse off (squadron strength-wise) than now, and of course would also be without S-400 and Predators. What a brilliant plan!

[Jay]

Can Tejas fire SAM from ground?
Can Tejas fly 14+hrs without pilot for surveillance?

You know what it can do….

It can let our experienced pilots fly and bring them back home safely!

It will accelerate the knowledge base and enable us to develop and gain expertise in developing our own weapon systems so that 5 decades from now we don’t have to lose more pilots during peace time ops than in combat.

Keep the spending inside India and give us back more to invest the dividend.

I can quote a million more reasons…sahib!

[fanne]

Without stating the obvious, Tejas issue is not lack of political backing, or budget, not even HAL lack of prep (they cannot build all 83 in one year, not economical), it is IAF not wanting more of it (If not for MP, we may have LCA capped at 40 IOC + FOC planes). The 83 has been literally pushed down its throat. Then, of course, the next culprit is HAL, it can still have produced more aircraft at higher speed within existing constraints, but has chosen not to.

[Mort Walker]

Absolutely. Cancelling both the S-400 and Predator at this time and putting the money into production of the Tejas MK1A would be the best thing the IAF could do.

Wrong!! Cancelling S-400 and Predator would be the worst, the most reckless and foolish thing that IAF could do. Most of the Mig-21 bashing I am seeing on this thread is nothing but ill-informed whining, as if every deshbhakt on this forum knows more about air-defence and battle-planning than the IAF and various Indian military staff.

You could ground the Mig-21, order ten thousand Tejas and still have nothing to show for it. Those extra Tejas you order would not show up for 3 years at least, and in the mean time (under this scenario) the Mig-21s would be sitting idle on the ground and IAF would be even worse off (squadron strength-wise) than now, and of course would also be without S-400 and Predators. What a brilliant plan!

No one is claiming to know about air defence and battle planning. Squadron strength on paper means little when you have 5 crashes a year and 3-4 pilots dead. In 3 years the loss of a full squadron of the Mig-21 and over a dozen pilots dead. Tell the pilot spouses and families that IAF squadron strength numbers are all that matter. What a way to boost morale.

One battalion of the S-400 has been delivered and another in the next few months. It will take the IAF at least a year to come up to speed on it, even then we don't know what will be needed for logistical support. Similarly, the US may delay spares and insist on MQ-9 inspections along with some EJ or wokelibtard passing anti-India legislation to deny support for offensive weapon systems. For both of these weapon systems, there are domestic alternative solutions. Keep the money at home and for every dollar spent, it will yield many more toward a knowledge base no one can deny.

[Manish_P]

...

'Rahul Bedi's assertion that PAF aircraft will be under surveillance from S400 at 600KM from take off is naive and ill informed. It does not consider the impact of the earths curvature, mountains on line on sight

All those nice maps showing overlapping S-400 circles are 2D flat... so our DDM experts think accordingly

[Karan M]

Tejas doesn't have a 400km or 250km missile to hold PAF /PLAAF at bay outside PGM launch ranges.

Su-30MKI launching a Brahmos on 08 DEC 2021, but it isn't an anti-aircraft missile; however, it does give an indication that other missiles of higher weight could be used.

Annual budgets are limited. Deferring expensive new foreign acquisitions for 2 years in favor of ramping up Tejas Mk1A would go a long way toward improving IAF flight safety and the morale of flight crews who now operate the Mig-21. Maybe that's not important to the IAF?

There will be a national security crisis every few years and then calls for emergency foreign acquisitions.

The Brahmos is not an air to air missile. The Tejas can't carry it either.

The S-400 is a vital acquisition that holds PAF/PLAAF aircraft at bay reducing their sensor coverage deeper into India, reduces the reach of their most capable fighters.

At 380km the 40N6 can push the SAAB Erieye 300+km deeper into Pak, limiting their reach into Indian airspace. In essence their long range offensive punch gets limited. They will be flying blind beyond 100 odd km vs many IAF threats especially our low RCS Tejas. Plus there will be latency, lime of sight issues in battle management.

At 250km range, the 48N6 can hold PAF aircraft outside their PGM launch ranges at medium, high altitude rendering most of the PAF fleet worthless except the Raad carriers.

If they choose to fly low to avoid long range interception, their PGM launch ranges will drop even more appreciably given vast majority (range extension kits, LGBs) are unpowered. Even the H-4 SOW range will drop. At closer ranges, they remain vulnerable to SAMs, IAF interceptors.

Plus it has an ATBM role able to intercept targets in the 3K-4km missile class.

The Mk1A line needs time to stabilize. The first Mk1A is yet to fly. The Mk1A are yet to be fully delivered. Just adding money now may accelerate the program but it will not bring capabilities to the IAF the S-400 does.

[Kakarat]

Can Tejas fire SAM from ground?
Can Tejas fly 14+hrs without pilot for surveillance?

You know what it can do….

It can let our experienced pilots fly and bring them back home safely!

It will accelerate the knowledge base and enable us to develop and gain expertise in developing our own weapon systems so that 5 decades from now we don’t have to lose more pilots during peace time ops than in combat.

Keep the spending inside India and give us back more to invest the dividend.

I can quote a million more reasons…sahib!

Please understand my point and I definitely know what Tejas is capable of, I have been following Tejas from long before I joined BR
All I am saying is that the reason for lack of order beyond 83 is not due to lack of money but intent, so i think its better we stop this if we don't buy this we can buy Tejas. Even I want GOI to order more Tejas but saying buy tejas instead of a SAM or UAV is useless argument

[kit]

I think 83 is a good number , looking at the way the staggered Su 30 purchases were made., all those 250 + were not ordered in one go !! ..why the takleef for a lot of good people here ? Give it time., besides if Mk2 reaches operational capability , those orders would go to the Mk2 ( and IAF end up top heavy ! )

[Manish_Sharma]

^If order is placed Today even then HAL would struggle to deliver higher numbers. But that struggle would be good struggle as it would eventually build our aerospace industry.

But kicking the can down towards hopeful but distant future will keep us stunted which is what our import LOBBY and export nations be it Russia France uk and usa wants.

[brar_w]

The Tejas has a backlog which HAL is currently delivering. The future variants in the MK1A, and Mk2 haven't even flown yet and the first squadron of the MK1A isn't expected to be fielded till 2024-2025 timeframe. So HAL has confirmed orders for 2027-2028 and perhaps even longer. That's a substantial backlog given where they are in the development life cycle. Increasing this backlog 6-7 years out for a variant (MK2/MWF) that hasn't even flown yet is not really necessary because what matters is the research funding for development and testing of that variant. Likewise, any Mk1A orders to cover for potential production gaps, or additional needs don't need to come until much later (2-3 years prior to the currently planned end of Mk1A production). We are talking about variants that the IAF hasn't even flown yet (even HAL has yet to fly them) and they already have orders so that goes to show that there is healthy support for the platform. So HAL is in a really good shape and perhaps for the first time in its history has an order (of this magnitude) for a type it is yet to fly and complete development on. We tend to run 4-5 years ahead of everything but in reality the MK1, the MK1A, and the MWF are sequential and the latter two need to complete development, go through their dev/ops testing and be fully certified. That will take time and comes with risk. Its not like HAL has these fully developed and fielded but is sitting idle awaiting orders. They have to be part of a mid-long term plan and can't be acquired and fielded in short order.

[AkshaySG]

You could ground the Mig-21, order ten thousand Tejas and still have nothing to show for it. Those extra Tejas you order would not show up for 3 years at least, and in the mean time (under this scenario) the Mig-21s would be sitting idle on the ground and IAF would be even worse off (squadron strength-wise) than now, and of course would also be without S-400 and Predators. What a brilliant plan!

I'll tell you what we would have to show for it... More pilots

Going by this year's numbers if we keep flying the Mig21 4-5 more years that means 20+ crashes and 10+ deaths. Maybe more considering the airframe is getting older and older with each passing year.

I for one haven't advocated canceling any existing deals, My point was whether the above stated losses are an acceptable fact as compared to the drop in squadrons for a few years.

There are no easy paths here.. Our previous leadership (both civil and military) have ensured that we face the decision of either losing squadron strength or pretty much a guaranteed loss of aviators flying in comparably unsafe airframes

[AkshaySG]

I think 83 is a good number , looking at the way the staggered Su 30 purchases were made., all those 250 + were not ordered in one go !! ..why the takleef for a lot of good people here ? Give it time., besides if Mk2 reaches operational capability , those orders would go to the Mk2 ( and IAF end up top heavy ! )

The "takleef" my dear sir has to do with the fact that inducting Tejas by that staggered method means having to use Mig-21s for even longer and having more and more experienced, qualified pilots die in that plane.

In the here and now of December 2021 we can't do much.. None of the options are easy, cheap or free of risks

But the mistake was made a decade + ago.. The delay in development of Tejas and its contract meant displayed a kind of "chalta hai" attitude which we couldn't have afforded. The focus and coverage went to MMRCA for 10+ years when the biggest need of the hour was retiring the Bisons.

And we're now paying for thoae delays with blood. Our blood.

[nam]

What we need is more numbers of FOC version. But that bird is now already flown away... IAF could have asked for 16 per year FOC until MK1A comes along. But alas.

Having said this, there is no guarantee extra LCA will allow the Migs been taken off the roll.

Given the war like situation with the Chinis, we need every bird we can lay our hands on. There is no way IAF will do away 4-5 sqd of BVR capable fighter..

They might still be flying after 2024. For all we know, IAF is probably saving airframe life. Allowing only experienced pilots to fly them.

[LakshmanPST]

Everytime a Bison crashes, this discussion of not ordering more Tejas comes up...
As discussed many times in this forum, IAF/HAL/MOD/Govt./Previous Govt./Import lobbies whoever you want to blame doesn't really matter now... Damage has already been done...
-
IAF need Bisons for 2-3 more years until S400s, Rafales & Tejas Mk1s are fully operational and Tejas Mk1A starts flying... They don't really have any other option... Nothing can be done in this matter except praying for safety of our pilots...

[Mort Walker]

Everytime a Bison crashes, this discussion of not ordering more Tejas comes up...
As discussed many times in this forum, IAF/HAL/MOD/Govt./Previous Govt./Import lobbies whoever you want to blame doesn't really matter now... Damage has already been done...
-
IAF need Bisons for 2-3 more years until S400s, Rafales & Tejas Mk1s are fully operational and Tejas Mk1A starts flying... They don't really have any other option... Nothing can be done in this matter except praying for safety of our pilots...

What does that do for morale and for inducting new officer pilots? If you have what it takes to become an IAF officer, but your wife and family tell you it's risky, and they have a valid point, then recruiting the best becomes difficult.

[Cain Marko]

If they want to, maybe they can even today address this issue. Reduce bison flying hours. Buy/lease used m2k, mig29, rafale, mki (maybe even used f16s) wherever you can find them. Start Converting bison/flogger pilots to these types ASAP. Send pilots abroad for training. It may take a year or two, but they could possibly retire the bisons or keep a very small number.

[Prem Kumar]

Nothing stops the IAF from getting into a room with the MoD and HAL

1) State the nature of the emergency
2) Order 4 squadrons of Tejas-Mk1
3) Tell HAL to double their production capacity. Work 3 shifts. Do whatever the hell it takes to deliver 1 Mk1 squadron per year. Mission mode.
4) All parties set a goal to replace all Mig-21 squadrons with Tejas in 4 years max. A couple of these squadrons could be Mk1a if it gets ready by then
5) MoD needs to cough up the money. Convince MoF/FM Seetharaman

Do'able if we have the will.

This is what the IAF Chief said:

"We have four squadrons of the MiG-21s and the drawdown will happen in the next three to four years," he stated, adding that India would meet its requirements for 5th Generation fighter aircraft through the AMCA- an indigenous aircraft developed by the DRDO.

But I don't know how they will achieve that without losing squadron strength if they wait for Tejas-Mk1a. Inducting Tejas-Mk1 will help them maintain squadron strength, while maintaining the 4 year timeframe for Mig-21 retirement.

[Manish_Sharma]

2) Order 4 squadrons of Tejas-Mk1
3) Tell HAL to double their production capacity. Work 3 shifts. Do whatever the hell it takes to deliver 1 Mk1 squadron per year. Mission mode.
4) All parties set a goal to replace all Mig-21 squadrons with Tejas in 4 years max. A couple of these squadrons could be Mk1a if it gets ready by then

This is the most sane solution I have seen to make sure the safety of our pilots!