Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

[Mort Walker]

Very emotional and touching, especially how Joe and Jill are praying very hard for the people of Ukraine after pushing them into war with Russia. They should make a hollywood movie out of this.

POTUS displays all of the signs of dementia riddled angry old man. I hope his handlers don't drag this Wag the Dog situation to further deterioration.

[srin]

What a wimp ...
- "World will hold Russia accountable": He didn't say "We hold ...", he said "world will". He wants the world to do something.
- "announce the further consequences ... will impose on Russia": More sanctions. He isn't going to defend Ukraine
- "... deters any aggression against the Alliance": He only cares about NATO allies. All Ukraine gets is thoughts and prayers.

So US and NATO are going to do nothing militarily (everybody except probably UKR knew that). They want the Ukraine people to be brave and fight. Russians were counting on this.

[srikandan]

Spectator Index - Oil price hits $100, gold price surges

That should really help the American economy.

[Pratyush]

The question I am asking myself is how could the Ukrainian's be so naive especially after the experience of Georgia in 2008.

[Baikul]

Putin has blustered his way into a scenario in which it’s difficult to see positive outcomes for him.

It’s true that observers underestimate the patriotism of the average Russian and his willingness to fight for his country, even in unpopular wars. But even so he needs to end this very quickly, with minimal casualties, minimum economic impact, while managing what seems to be internal dissension at the top. In fact I’m sure he’s also very aware of the danger to his own position from those in his own coterie.

So many balls in the air…..

I’d almost think that, as with a certain Syrian gentleman a few years ago, Putinfall may become a thing touted by commentators. Who knows which way it goes this time.

[ricky_v]

What a wimp ...
- "World will hold Russia accountable": He didn't say "We hold ...", he said "world will". He wants the world to do something.
- "announce the further consequences ... will impose on Russia": More sanctions. He isn't going to defend Ukraine
- "... deters any aggression against the Alliance": He only cares about NATO allies. All Ukraine gets is thoughts and prayers.

So US and NATO are going to do nothing militarily (everybody except probably UKR knew that). They want the Ukraine people to be brave and fight. Russians were counting on this.

If you watch the unsc video that i posted in the last thread, and towards the end you may get an indication of where the wind is blowing.
- the ukrainian ambassador asked the russian one to relinquish his position as president of the council citing un charter, i believe that they mean to ask to remove russia from the un
- the us and uk gave standard responses, but the uk is more belligerent in favour of stronger actions
- germany and france are at a lower level of condemnation
- norway, if considered the representative of the meddlesome scandis is belligerent on par with the uk
- indian ambassador remained neutral, regular stuff about students and evacuation

[pravula]

DOJ scraps Trump-era China Initiative for broader national security program

https://thehill.com/policy/national-sec ... l-security

[Mort Walker]

Need to watch flight routes from north America & Europe to India. Many of these go over Russia and near Ukraine. Hopefully Eurocontrol has diverted these further east. The last thing we need is an automated SAM strike on commercial or general aviation aircraft.

[srin]

I wonder if our Govt knew that the invasion was imminent. I was surprised when we ordered evacuation of our citizens. They wouldn't do it for some minor action in some small eastern part of Ukraine.

[m_saini]

The question I am asking myself is how could the Ukrainian's be so naive especially after the experience of Georgia in 2008.

I don't anyone would've expected what's happening right now, especially after the whole show Russians put up with the oh-so-opaque buildup. Or maybe they were painted an extremely rosy picture by "whoever" is advising them and Ukrainians chose to believe what was convenient.

Can't help but laugh now that Ukrainians have found their very own Nehru and 62.

Also would ask everyone to checkout WION's live coverage on yt. They're airing some pretty brutal videos of the live-fire.

[Deans]

regime change? What is end goal. Very confusing. Just going after E Ukraine wont help them. But going after regime wont help them either. Just not sure what Putin is trying to do or what is end goal or what the trigger is or why now and why in Ukraine. Its not going to be easy either if it moves to urban land and becomes an urban war.

The Ukrainian govt will fall if they let Donetsk/Luhansk be independent or part of Russia. That was the de-facto situation, but Russia has removed any doubt. Ukrainian govt has to do something to survive, but I doubt the average Ukrainian soldier is willing to die to liberate D&L (The average Russian is willing to die to defend it).
The declaration of emergency, call up of reservists, closure of air space, stopping of gas transit fees, will kill Ukraine's economy without a war.

Ukraine's best outcome is if Russia's operations are not confined to Donetsk-Luhansk. That will get the Ukrainian army involved, get more NATO aid and make the war a lot less popular in Russia. I think Russian support for the war extends only Donetsk and Luhansk (and that has less support compared to Crimea).

[John]

The question I am asking myself is how could the Ukrainian's be so naive especially after the experience of Georgia in 2008.

Lot of pro Russian feeling in Ukraine, this invasion is blessing in disguise for the west as it more or less ends any chance Ukraine will ever go back to Russian sphere of influence as anti Russian sentiment grows.

[nam]

Looks like putin in had a word with GoI during his visit. GoI putting imports on hold must be due to it knew this was coming.

[Pratyush]

DOJ scraps Trump-era China Initiative for broader national security program

https://thehill.com/policy/national-sec ... l-security

As time goes by, it becomes very clear that US elites are totally beholden to PRC and CCP.

They are undertaking actions that are beneficial only to the PRC and CCP in the long run.

In a different time quad could have been an Anti dote to PRC and it's expansion. But as an Indian i will not be taking it very seriously.

[SwamyG]

I know people here who were claiming west was making up whole invasion angle was proved wrong, truth is Putin was hoping for quick attack using false flag attack as excuse but leaked Intel basically threw him in back foot. He can still go ahead or back off and look weak.

If anyone is looking weak, it is not Putin/Russia. If they do not want to escalate, both NATO and Russia would achieve they have achieved their goals. It is like going to lunch break, they will return.

[Baikul]

……Ukraine's best outcome is if Russia's operations are not confined to Donetsk-Luhansk. That will get the Ukrainian army involved, get more NATO aid and make the war a lot less popular in Russia. I think Russian support for the war extends only Donetsk and Luhansk (and that has less support compared to Crimea).

From multiple reports it looks like a general attack on all Ukraine, not just Donetsk and Luhansk. The capital city seems to have been hit.

[Shaktimaan]

It's clear now that Russia was using Imran Khan's visit as a diversionary tactic / maskirovka to send the message that an invasion was not imminent.

Otherwise why would Im the Dim be allowed to visit there with no firm agenda and no real issues to discuss?

Russia can afford to insult the PM of Pakistan like this. They could not use any other country's PM for this deception because real countries don't take insults like this lightly (putting their PM in potential danger during an invasion). But Pakistan can be slapped around if you have a few dollars or weapons to offer.

[GShankar]

A perspective on what is going on

1. Nordstream 2 would help russia economically
   1.1 China does not want that
   1.2 US does not want that
   1.3 Ukraine does not want that
   1.4 Sanction/Ban the company building the pipeline
2. Start some NATO BS with Ukraine
3. Cut alternate deals with Germany
4. Provoke Russia
   4.1 Putin gives speech. But why? There seems to be a need to address the internal audience.
5. Russia Engages
   5.1 US Condemns
   5.2 China Condems
   5.3 Germany Stutters
6. Nordstream 2 suspended

I think pretty much primary mission achieved. The powers that be don't care about 2 new countries being formed. And roos manages to achieve some sort of buffer (territory expansion?). Interesting that "this" buffer is valued more (at this moment) than nordstream 2. Not sure why? This "buffer creation" could have happened after nordstream 2 started flowing

Negotiate price down further bring nordstream 2 back on track?

I think G2 is alive and well.

[srikandan]

Kyiv bombs Donetsk residents

[John]

I know people here who were claiming west was making up whole invasion angle was proved wrong, truth is Putin was hoping for quick attack using false flag attack as excuse but leaked Intel basically threw him in back foot. He can still go ahead or back off and look weak.

If anyone is looking weak, it is not Putin/Russia. If they do not want to escalate, both NATO and Russia would achieve they have achieved their goals. It is like going to lunch break, they will return.

That’s not what Putin thinks he needed a distraction from his economic failure backing off means he his back to square one and economy will be back in focus.

[Cain Marko]

António Guterres, meanwhile says, "This war will have consequences for Europe not seen since the volcanic eruptions"

OTOH Ukraine ambassador to UN was almost about to cry on live TV. Have to say it's all fun and games until the war actually starts.

Did the UNSG actually say that? What is he refering to - Pompei?

[John]

Kyiv bombs Donetsk residents

Lmao please stop linking to propaganda, this is just like crap separatists released and you can clearly see from metadata it was days old.

[SwamyG]

Need to watch flight routes from north America & Europe to India. Many of these go over Russia and near Ukraine. Hopefully Eurocontrol has diverted these further east. The last thing we need is an automated SAM strike on commercial or general aviation aircraft.

Last time a Malaysian Airlines was brought down.

[John]

Tirumurti called on all parties concerned in the Ukraine-Russia crisis to refrain “from any further action that could contribute to a worsening of the situation.

“India has consistently advocated at the United Nations, the need for peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with international law and with agreements entered into by parties concerned,” he said.

[Anant]

Russia supporters, the party is just beginning nah. Putin going shock n awe just like Georgie Porgie Bush in I rak. That worked out super well... Grab some popcorn and let's watch some grandmaster moves versus supposedly an Alzheimers riddled idiot.

Opening moves go to Master Putin.

[Pratyush]

Anyone remember the English speeches of the Georgian tin pot during 2008. I was struck by the fact that the gentleman was not addressing his people in native language. But in English, as if his audience was US and UK.

The same gentleman turned up in Ukraine post the 2014 coup as well.

It seems to me that the same playbook is being used in Ukraine as well. They are not speaking to Ukrainian's or Russians. But the US and UK combination.

[ricky_v]

[Shaktimaan]

Operation Reverse Barbarossa is too long so I'm naming this conflict Operation Assorabrab. Pronounced Asso-rab-rab.

[SwamyG]

That’s not what Putin thinks he needed a distraction from his economic failure backing off means he his back to square one and economy will be back in focus.

I am not sure how you are so certain about your evaluation.

[m_saini]

Did the UNSG actually say that? What is he refering to - Pompei?

Yeah pretty sure he did, was watching it wion livestream. He was speaking with some journalists and taking questions, will try to find the timestamps when the stream ends.

[John]

Russian troops attacking from Belarus

[Mort Walker]

Operation Reverse Barbarossa is too long so I'm naming this conflict Operation Assorabrab. Pronounced Asso-rab-rab.

No. This is restoration of Akhaand Russia.

[John]

That’s not what Putin thinks he needed a distraction from his economic failure backing off means he his back to square one and economy will be back in focus.

I am not sure how you are so certain about your evaluation.

There is current assessment by many analysts he needs to create a crises to distract Russians.

[Mort Walker]

I am not sure how you are so certain about your evaluation.

There is current assessment by many analysts he needs to create a crises to distract Russians.

And so does the senile POTUS who has an approval rating hovering around 40% or less.

[John]

There is current assessment by many analysts he needs to create a crises to distract Russians.

And so does the senile POTUS who has an approval rating hovering around 40% or less.

As much as Biden would love to get a boost this is not really helping him. It will only make inflation worse and makes his polling #s drop more.

[Baikul]

It's clear now that Russia was using Imran Khan's visit as a diversionary tactic / maskirovka to send the message that an invasion was not imminent.

Otherwise why would Im the Dim be allowed to visit there with no firm agenda and no real issues to discuss?

Russia can afford to insult the PM of Pakistan like this. They could not use any other country's PM for this deception because real countries don't take insults like this lightly (putting their PM in potential danger during an invasion). But Pakistan can be slapped around if you have a few dollars or weapons to offer.

How can you make such erroneous statements. Clearly Imran Khan was invited to lend his strategic acumen in planning the invasion and its aftermath. Russia was also desperately looking for funding for the campaign; however this was rightly declined by Pakistan who are no longer in the business of finding beggar nations.

[Manish_Sharma]

Putin is saying "we don't intend to occupy Ukraine."

Shakhmati chess player russkies exactly know what their aims are and they are going for it decisively.

[Anant]

This will be a tremendous win for Putin and Russia. I better fill my car tomorrow before prices triple!

[madhu]

what is India's official and un-official stand on Russia-Ukraine conflict?
i really want India atleast un-official stand on Russia. we need to help them against US as US is unreliable towards India when compared to Russia.

Can India now do a salami slice on pak border, that will put India in advantage position? i know now we cant do the same on china border but i think we need to do it on Pakistan.

[srin]

This will be a tremendous win for Putin and Russia. I better fill my car tomorrow before prices triple!

The price increase will happen as soon as assembly elections are over