Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 24 Feb 2022 13:21

Has anyone noticed stock shock in US markets? Dow fell by a whooping 800 points.

This can't go on for long else US economy will also enter a steep recession right after Covid. There are no good outcomes for anyone in this war except China. Pax Americana is dead!

srin · Post by **srin** » 24 Feb 2022 13:23

Mort Walker wrote:Putin quote:

As for the military sphere, modern Russia, even after the collapse of the USSR and the loss of a significant part of its nuclear potential, is today one of the most powerful nuclear powers. And moreover, it has certain advantages in a number of the latest types of weapons. In this regard, no one should have any doubt that a direct attack on Russia will lead to defeat and dire consequences for a potential aggressor.
No one is going to do anything military against Russia.

Oblig Yes Minister quote

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 24 Feb 2022 13:24

There are 20,000 Indian nationals stranded in Ukraine.

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 24 Feb 2022 13:25

Yes, I am afraid that there is a potential for a BIG strategic win for China here. But, lets see how it unfolds. China could also end up as a loser if the Western alliance is rejuvenated and comes out ahead. To be honest, the best outcome I can see for India is Russia falls flat on its face and somehow Putin is overthrown. That would be a big negative for China.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 24 Feb 2022 13:34

^^ Why would instability in a friendly nation benefit us?

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 24 Feb 2022 13:38

The way US folded in Afghanistan it should be clear that the days of US expeditionary campaigns in far off lands are over. EUR is a spent force and until next big European war, most European countries will just about maintain enough military force to keep their borders secure from being overrun by African, Paki and Bangla immigrants. So Ukraine and in future India and Taiwan are on their own. The most US/Eur will do are announce sanctions, provide plenty of weapons and let the Ukrainian do the fight with the help of some US and British special forces.

I am still unclear as to what Putin's plans are. At a huge cost he may take Kyiv and then what ? Install a puppet regime ? Arrest the current president ? Or maybe make atleast half of Ukraine some sort of a "autonomous" russian region ? I also wonder why did he decide to attack now considering Russia would have vastly benefited from the already high oil/gas prices, he could have waited for another year, filled his coffers, completed the nordstream pipeline project and then declared war from a position of greater strength.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 24 Feb 2022 13:50

I'll stick my neck out and say that Russian army will not move beyond the Donbass (Donetsk/ Luhansk) region, apart from any small scale local
incursions to pin down Ukie forces. Once they are in control of Donetsk/ Luhansk and Ukraine sees that NATO has done almost nothing, NATO will have to decide if it is serious about implementing the Minsk agreement and a mutual security guarantee for Ukraine (without NATO membership), which is what Russia will want. I think the current Missile strikes are a `Shock and Awe' thing, to tell the Ukies that if they think of resisting a limited move into Donetsk/ Luhansk, they will lose a lot of their military hardware.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 24 Feb 2022 13:53

Baikul wrote:
Deans wrote:
……Ukraine's best outcome is if Russia's operations are not confined to Donetsk-Luhansk. That will get the Ukrainian army involved, get more NATO aid and make the war a lot less popular in Russia. I think Russian support for the war extends only Donetsk and Luhansk (and that has less support compared to Crimea).
From multiple reports it looks like a general attack on all Ukraine, not just Donetsk and Luhansk. The capital city seems to have been hit.

I think there will be more clarity in a couple of days. A good indicator is how many people have actually died. Foreign TV channels which have 1 reporter in the country, reporting from a hotel room, are in no position to say what is happening.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 24 Feb 2022 13:59

So if US can attack Cuba because of the missiles closer to their border or Iran/Iraq due to non existent WMD, why cant russia attack Ukraine if US wants to use Ukraine to place Missiles closer to russia? Winning or loosing is totally different aspect else we can very well dispose the military.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 24 Feb 2022 13:59

Have Russian troops entered Ukraine proper excluding Donetsk and Luhansk? I thought it was just missile attacks?

The presence or absence of troops does make a difference on how long the sanctions will last.

Putin has probably gamed that he was getting hit with sanctions anyway, so why not go the full hog? Note the inflammatory statements coming daily from UK and US side virtually guaranteeing diplomatic efforts would fail…

Btw we desperately need Admiral Philipovich in these desperate times…

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 24 Feb 2022 14:04

Strange , I met my future wife at an Sanatorium near Kharkov. That peaceful serenity in -30°. Feel bad. But one has to know that western Ukrainian were always against Russia and they were willful collaborators of Nazis. Atrocities they comitted on fellow Ukrainians most grusome during WW2.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 24 Feb 2022 14:15

BTW Donbass is has most fertile land in world. Fertility of land is measured by thikness of Humus layer ( that has organic substance and minerals in right proportion and soil structure best for plants). Nazis wanted to get hold of that region. They even send scraped soil to Germany. For common folks, Humus layer is 20 cm in Trai. Les then 20 cm in Punjab and Haryana. In Southern states subtropical area it is even less because organic matter is washed down by frequent rains. But in Dnbas ( Basin of river Don) it is 12 meter at places. Salam

LakshmanPST · Post by **LakshmanPST** » 24 Feb 2022 14:23

Interesting article from a Russian Nationalist blogger written last week explaining why war will come within a week...

https://akarlin.substack.com/p/regather ... source=url
Regathering of the Russian Lands
The Empire, Long Divided, Must Unite

My reasons for these bold calls can be sorted into four major bins:

1) Troops Tell the Story: What we have observed over the past few months are all completely consistent with invasion planning.

2) Game Theory: Russia’s impossible ultimatums to NATO have pre-committed it to military operations in Ukraine.

3) Window of Opportunity: The economic, political, and world strategic conjuncture for permanently solving the Ukraine Question has never been as favorable since at least 2014, and may never materialize again.

4) The Nationalist Turn: “Gathering the Russian Lands’ is consistent with opinions and values that Putin has voiced since at least the late 2000s, with the philosophers, writers, and statesmen whom he has cited most often and enthusiastically (e.g. Ilyin, Solzhenitsyn, Denikin), and more broadly, with the “Nationalist Turn” that I have identified the Russian state as having taken from the late 2010s.

John · Post by **John** » 24 Feb 2022 14:26

vimal wrote:Has anyone noticed stock shock in US markets? Dow fell by a whooping 800 points.

This can't go on for long else US economy will also enter a steep recession right after Covid. There are no good outcomes for anyone in this war except China. Pax Americana is dead!

They are more affected by inflation fears than any impact due to conflict if Fed came and announced no rate increase market will hit all time highs. However

Russian stock exchange is down 45%..
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IMOEX.ME/

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 24 Feb 2022 14:28

Raja wrote: To be honest, the best outcome I can see for India is Russia falls flat on its face and somehow Putin is overthrown. That would be a big negative for China.

That is American & NATO trait from Saigon to kabul they fall face down gubo and capitulate!

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 24 Feb 2022 14:34

This is Ukraine's version.
Ukraine invasion latest: Kyiv reports bombing of cities, airports and military infrastructure

Ukraine has reported fierce battles with invading Russian forces from eastern and southern regions of the country.

“Four tanks of the Russian occupiers were burnt on the bypass road of Kharkiv” and eastern Ukrainian city close to the Russian border, the general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said in a statement on Thursday.

“About 50 Russian occupiers were killed in the Schastya area” of eastern Ukraine north of Russian-backed separatist stronghold Luhansk.

“In addition, another plane of the armed forces of the Russian Federation was destroyed in the Kramatorsk region. This is the sixth,” the statement read.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s border guard service said that Russian helicopters are firing at Ukrainian servicemen in the southern Black Sea town of Skadovsk, killing three border guards and wounding others.

“Despite this, border guards are fighting the occupier,” the border guard service said in the statement.

The service said other battles were under way in other parts of the southern Kherson region bordering the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 24 Feb 2022 14:36

This war is like My Father Goes What but oil is getting expensive so a big problem.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 24 Feb 2022 14:36

Raja wrote: To be honest, the best outcome I can see for India is Russia falls flat on its face and somehow Putin is overthrown. That would be a big negative for China.

Absolutely not! A big negative for China is not the criteria between indo-russian ties.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 24 Feb 2022 14:37

This is from RT.com so pliss to add salt etc. Trying to sow confusion among NATO ranks?
Romania intercepts Ukrainian fighter jet

Fighting Falcon jets on Thursday morning to intercept a foreign military aircraft, the country’s defense ministry has said. The intercepted target was identified as a Ukrainian Air Force Sukhoi Su-27 air superiority fighter jet. It was directed to land at a military base near the city of Bacau in eastern Romania, the statement said.

The ministry said the pilot of the Ukrainian jet surrendered himself to the Romanian authorities. Bucharest is assessing the legal ramifications of the incident. The defense ministry said it would provide further details about the situation later.

The news comes amid a Russian military operation in Ukraine, which Russia launched on Thursday morning. Moscow identified Ukrainian military airfields and aircraft on the ground as primary targets for its air strikes.

Romania, a NATO member, said it had taken all the necessary precautions and was monitoring the events unfolding in the neighboring nation.

LakshmanPST · Post by **LakshmanPST** » 24 Feb 2022 14:38

Chinese media instructed to cover Russia positively and avoid pro-Western framing.

"In the future, China will also need Russia's understanding and support when wrestling with America to solve the Taiwan issue once and for all."

https://www.businessinsider.in/politics ... 758963.cms
A Chinese news outlet accidentally leaked its own censorship instructions on Russia-Ukraine coverage: report

John · Post by **John** » 24 Feb 2022 14:45

Video of burning Russian tank from Kharkiv looks like Russians decided to copy Syrian strategy of sending tanks with no infantry support or air cover.

rkirankr · Post by **rkirankr** » 24 Feb 2022 14:56

Anybody taking " moral" stance, please understand we should take a pragmatic stand.Ukraine or US are not reliable partners

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 24 Feb 2022 14:58

rkirankr wrote:Anybody taking " moral" stance, please understand we should take a pragmatic stand.Ukraine or US are not reliable partners

We export to US more than Russia. Not to mention VP mami is half Yindian

.

rkirankr · Post by **rkirankr** » 24 Feb 2022 15:09

vimal wrote:
rkirankr wrote:Anybody taking " moral" stance, please understand we should take a pragmatic stand.Ukraine or US are not reliable partners
We export to US more than Russia. Not to mention VP mami is half Yindian .

VP mami will not hesitate to send arms to Pakis. Take a practical stance, see which is beneficial to Inda. Also "NEVER TRUST US" Ask the Afghans

John · Post by **John** » 24 Feb 2022 15:12

rkirankr wrote:
vimal wrote:
We export to US more than Russia. Not to mention VP mami is half Yindian .
VP mami will not hesitate to send arms to Pakis. Take a practical stance, see which is beneficial to Inda. Also "NEVER TRUST US" Ask the Afghans

Thank goodness Russians aren’t supplying China with S-400 even before India.

In game of politics there are no friends.

williams · Post by **williams** » 24 Feb 2022 15:13

There are long traffic jams as residents try to flee the capital Kyiv. Other residents have sought shelter in metro stations. BBC correspondents say that although people expected an attack, the scale of the invasion has taken them by surprise

^^^Quote from BBC. This is what happens when anyone relies on the west and khan for support.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 24 Feb 2022 15:36

vimal wrote:Has anyone noticed stock shock in US markets? Dow fell by a whooping 800 points.

This can't go on for long else US economy will also enter a steep recession right after Covid. There are no good outcomes for anyone in this war except China. Pax Americana is dead!

It is ugly everywhere. Sensex is down 4.7% at the time of this post. Rupee is under pressure and oil has breached $105 per barrel. Nirmala Sitharaman needs to climb down the ivory tower, increase the interest rates and cut the excise duties. The laissez faire economics is great for rich countries but not for developing countries such as overs. The only winner in all this is China once again, the devils truly have luck and fortune on their side and they seem to benefit greatly from every turmoil and crisis in the world.

mody · Post by **mody** » 24 Feb 2022 16:01

Deans wrote:I'll stick my next out and say that Russian army will not move beyond the Donbass (Donetsk/ Luhansk) region, apart from any small scale local
incursions to pin down Ukie forces. Once they are in control of Donetsk/ Luhansk and Ukraine sees that NATO has not almost nothing, NATO will have to decide if it is serious about implementing the Minsk agreement and a mutual security guarantee for Ukraine (without NATO membership), which is what Russia will want. I think the current Missile strikes are a `Shock and Awe' thing. to tell the Ukies that if they think of resisting a limited move into Donetsk/ Luhansk, they will lose a lot of their military hardware.

I agree with this assessment. Putin will try to degrade the Ukrainian military as much as possible, mostly the air defense systems, air force and any major equipment that it can destroy. Essentially leave it more as a self defense para-military/police force, rather than a strong modern military force.
Donetsk and Luhansk will be nominally independent, but practically part of Russia. Any peace deal will involve those signing the deal on Ukraine's behalf, acknowledging Russian control over Crimea.
Putin will not annex any further land, apart from the separatists held Donetsk and Luhansk. Might take control of a few pockets which are deemed important from the rest of the D and L provinces, which are currently not under rebel control, but mostly nothing major like taking over Mariupol over moving in upto the Dnieper river.

For India and the rest of the world this is a very dangerous precedent, because China has been using its revisionist bogus history to lay claims on the South China Sea and Arunachal Pradesh etc. Similar to Russia, they too in the future may resort to use of force or the threat of the same with its fictitious historical claims to seize control of these areas.
Many countries around the world have been created in the past 100 years, which did not really exist historically. Iraq, Syria, Jordan as well as many countries in Africa etc, readily come to mind and were all carved out by colonial powers after the great wars, without much thinking. Does that give a right to authorities in those countries to re-draw the borders now, by force if required to re-align the countries as they existed historically?

LakshmanPST · Post by **LakshmanPST** » 24 Feb 2022 16:05

Request for Admins:-
Now that invasion has started, I feel a dedicated thread may be started exclusively for the current crisis and leave this thread for general duscussion of that area...

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 24 Feb 2022 16:08

Why only worry about China? Going by that logic, Akhanda Bharat would be a legitimate endeavour. Our border lines were also largely drawn by the British. what really forces us to accept and live with them for eternity? Anyway, OT for this thread.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 24 Feb 2022 16:09

Russian incursion in UKI will be over in two/three days, but before that it will make an example out of UKI.
All the UKI airfields will be destroyed before Putin extends an olive branch to NATO.

srin · Post by **srin** » 24 Feb 2022 16:12

mody wrote:
Deans wrote:I'll stick my next out and say that Russian army will not move beyond the Donbass (Donetsk/ Luhansk) region, apart from any small scale local
incursions to pin down Ukie forces. Once they are in control of Donetsk/ Luhansk and Ukraine sees that NATO has not almost nothing, NATO will have to decide if it is serious about implementing the Minsk agreement and a mutual security guarantee for Ukraine (without NATO membership), which is what Russia will want. I think the current Missile strikes are a `Shock and Awe' thing. to tell the Ukies that if they think of resisting a limited move into Donetsk/ Luhansk, they will lose a lot of their military hardware.
I agree with this assessment. Putin will try to degrade the Ukrainian military as much as possible, mostly the air defense systems, air force and any major equipment that it can destroy. Essentially leave it more as a self defense para-military/police force, rather than a strong modern military force.
Donetsk and Luhansk will be nominally independent, but practically part of Russia. Any peace deal will involve those signing the deal on Ukraine's behalf, acknowledging Russian control over Crimea.
Putin will not annex any further land, apart from the separatists held Donetsk and Luhansk. Might take control of a few pockets which are deemed important from the rest of the D and L provinces, which are currently not under rebel control, but mostly nothing major like taking over Mariupol over moving in upto the Dnieper river.

There have been reports of tanks moving in from Belarus in North and Crimea in South.

At this time, not sure if this is "fog of war" reporting or this is a feint or a serious incursion.

RajaRudra · Post by **RajaRudra** » 24 Feb 2022 16:20

From the Chinese view, will this be a good time to take on either Taiwan or India ?

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 24 Feb 2022 16:27

Taiwan, yes. Because they now know, US will not fight.

They know they will get a bloody nose if they try to take on India and moreover, west can help easily to prolong any war.

srin · Post by **srin** » 24 Feb 2022 16:34

vinod wrote:Taiwan, yes. Because they now know, US will not fight.

They know they will get a bloody nose if they try to take on India and moreover, west can help easily to prolong any war.

Agree on the bloody nose part. Disagree on the West helping on anything. China is today at a stage where it can impose sanctions on US. West will do zilch. We may get some arms (good for their economy !), but that'll be too little too late. Perhaps some of them (like France) may use veto against an anti-India resolution. But nothing more.
OTOH, West will actively try to weaken our preparedness using CAATSA as a stick or sanctions based on some contrived human rights charges.

In any conflict with either China or Pakistan, we are essentially on our own. The sooner everyone gets it, the better it is.

RajaRudra · Post by **RajaRudra** » 24 Feb 2022 16:35

Yes, With or Without Western help the lesson should be remembered for generations there.

In any wars in future we should not tie ourselves in any manner. IAF, IN and IA should be used from the day one and even the civilian cargo ships,, fuel ships to / from china must be attacked. Every Chinese ship should be considered a potential target.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 24 Feb 2022 16:37

China does not need any example for Russia. It does what it does and when it feels it can get away with that. So we need not fear that China may find some precedence in this Russian invasion of UKI. That is what powerful nations always did and will do in future.

In fact we can use the same thing to take back POK asap. If China makes a play for Taiwan, then immediately we should make a play of POK and GB areas and take as much as possible and hold that.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 24 Feb 2022 16:46

-- deleted - wrong thread --

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 24 Feb 2022 16:59

The BR is split house on this topic i think. On one side, we have many NRI who like US since its their residence and accuse russians. On the other hand, we have residents who agree with russia since it is doing the same that US did during cuban missile crisis. Many of us were calling for attacks on Sri Lanka when they sold a strategic port to china. No one likes a big thorn in their sides. They will remove it if they can.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 24 Feb 2022 17:02

Monroe Doctrine.

They want to keep the Russians bottled in their own borders. Just like they created Pakis for containing us.