Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

[vinod]

Taiwan, yes. Because they now know, US will not fight.

They know they will get a bloody nose if they try to take on India and moreover, west can help easily to prolong any war.

Agree on the bloody nose part. Disagree on the West helping on anything. China is today at a stage where it can impose sanctions on US. West will do zilch. We may get some arms (good for their economy !), but that'll be too little too late. Perhaps some of them (like France) may use veto against an anti-India resolution. But nothing more.
OTOH, West will actively try to weaken our preparedness using CAATSA as a stick or sanctions based on some contrived human rights charges.

In any conflict with either China or Pakistan, we are essentially on our own. The sooner everyone gets it, the better it is.

In the recent stand off against China, west did help. US provided intelligence and of course any ship movements would be communicated as well. Also, the usual countries helping with spares and emergency purchases. Of course, we have to do the heavy lifting. No doubt on that.

It is in west interest to prolong a war between India and China. As a result, both would be weaker. So, they will do everything they can to get that objective, even if it involves helping us a bit.

Ofcourse we will see ourselves on the other end, if it is a India Pakistan shooting match.

This is what they are doing to Russia using Ukraine

[SidSoma]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 757531.cms

Russian helicopters attack military airport near Kyiv: Ukrainian officials

Kyiv is nowhere near any border. how and why would helicopters attack the airport. Isn't it better to use aircraft of some kind ??

[uddu]

India's current stance is the correct stand..Peace and discussion. Putin is not hostile to India. So there is no reason or us to deviate from this stance.
Also something interesting to watch

[John]

Ka-52 captured by Ukrainians reportedly an aerial insertion went terribly wrong for Russians and Russians are basically on the foot being chased by local police

https://twitter.com/ukrpravda_news/stat ... otd1KIuXZg

[kvraghav]

So Ukraine is winning. Good. No need to worry for anyone here right.

[John]

So Ukraine is winning. Good. No need to worry for anyone here right.

Hard to say on one side Ukrainians don’t see terribly well prepared on other side we have Russia who seems to use strategies from first Chechnya conflict and Syrian Army.

[srin]

So Ukraine is winning. Good. No need to worry for anyone here right.

And we know who is winning because .... ?

[kvraghav]

So Ukraine is winning. Good. No need to worry for anyone here right.

And we know who is winning because .... ?

Look at all the tanks destroyed, fighter jets shot, attack helis downed and the military chased by police.

[chanakyaa]

For now they are definitely winning on Twitter

[Tanaji]

What happened to the huge stocks of anti tank missiles that were sent to Ukraine?

[kvraghav]

For now they are definitely winning on Twitter

It is actually good for Russians. This works out like the Pakis. They will showcase indian losses but hide theirs, which will make the indian attack less intensive for the world but on the ground, it is effective.

[srin]

Those are glimpses of some engagements, not even battles. What can we say about the war as a whole ? Planes and tanks will be destroyed and people killed. No plan will work perfectly in contact with enemy.

What we don't know is: how many tanks and planes they have deployed, how many troops are engaged, how many battles they have won or how much territory they have occupied. Without that, it is inconceivable that any determination can be made.

For example, look at the casuality figure in any post-1943 Eastern front battle in WW2. Russians lost lot lot more people, planes and tanks, yet they won.

Winning the war isn't about the counting bodies. It is about the bloody political and national will to press on and achieve objectives despite the body count.

[John]

For now they are definitely winning on Twitter

Mainly because lot of anti Russian sentiment. But unlike in Armenian conflict Ukrainian military doesn’t seem to engaging in propaganda, the false PR is one of reasons many thought Armenia was winning that conflict and we’re surprised when Azerbaijan was only mins from capital.

It is strange there is lot of low intensity invasions happening in multiple areas which is allowing locals to travel around and take pics. So no one really know what’s happening on the ground only thing visible is lack of Ukraine preparedness and lack of modern equipment.

[kvraghav]

^^
How can you say this is not propaganda but anti russia sentiment? The anti russia sentiment is only in the westerners and the green card dreamers. The rest of know the western hypocrisy. Care to comment about the attack on Cuba missile crisis or the non existent WMD in Iraq?

[LakshmanPST]

I think Russia will do what Chinese did in 1962...
Attack entire Ukraine and severely cripple their defences... Claim that message has been sent and then 'strategically' withdraw behind the borders of the Donbass region...
-
Ukraine can claim victory saying that they drove back Russians from main Ukrainian areas...

[chanakyaa]

...So no one really know what’s happening on the ground...

And, this is the only thing we can agree on. West, NATO, and UKies are currently fighting the war in the social media using small clips and unauthenticated pics, b’cas they can’t do much on the ground. At this rate Ukraine will take over Russia in few days i’ve watched watched the Donbas 2014 conflict which was real. Bodies being casually loaded in the back of pickup truck as if loading sack of potatoes. We are not there yet...have fun on social media.

[John]

^^
How can you say this is not propaganda but anti russia sentiment? The anti russia sentiment is only in the westerners and the green card dreamers. The rest of know the western hypocrisy. Care to comment about the attack on Cuba missile crisis or the non existent WMD in Iraq?

Lot of Eastern Europeans or those of that heritage remember what Stalin had done and life under communism. This almost brings back memories especially Putin speech made it worse, I know of a few families myself. One of them of polish descent who didn’t even care about Russia who live in UK but after the speech they turned into anti Russian because of stories from their childhood and now think Russia will invade Poland next.

[uddu]

I think Russia will do what Chinese did in 1962...
Attack entire Ukraine and severely cripple their defences... Claim that message has been sent and then 'strategically' withdraw behind the borders of the Donbass region...
-
Ukraine can claim victory saying that they drove back Russians from main Ukrainian areas...

These are no optics. It could be start of Cold war 2.0 and U.S pushed as far as they can and Russians are retaking their area back as much as they think they can hold onto without insurgency. Mostly depopulated areas will all go to Russia.

[Tanaji]

People make the mistake of using the same lens to judge everyone. Just because India plays the nice goody two shoes kid on the block that happily accepts territorial losses doesnt mean every one else subscribes to the same behaviour. Some bite back much earlier.

[vrbarreto]

^^
How can you say this is not propaganda but anti russia sentiment? The anti russia sentiment is only in the westerners and the green card dreamers. The rest of know the western hypocrisy. Care to comment about the attack on Cuba missile crisis or the non existent WMD in Iraq?

Lot of Eastern Europeans or those of that heritage remember what Stalin had done and life under communism. This almost brings back memories especially Putin speech made it worse, I know of a few families myself. One of them of polish descent who didn’t even care about Russia who live in UK but after the speech they turned into anti Russian because of stories from their childhood and now think Russia will invade Poland next.

Poland is a member of NATO.. There is 0% chance of Russia invading them..

[Hari Nair]

...Lot of Eastern Europeans or those of that heritage remember what Stalin had done and life under communism. This almost brings back memories especially Putin speech made it worse, I know of a few families myself. One of them of polish descent who didn’t even care about Russia who live in UK but after the speech they turned into anti Russian because of stories from their childhood and now think Russia will invade Poland next.

May I suggest we keep perceived sentiments aside whilst tracking this conflict?
As an Indian military forum, let us zoom out from the weeds and focus on the campaign and how it unfolds.
All these points and arguments equating Stalin or Hitler with Putin is perhaps good for local sentiments or generating fluff on Twitter.
However, as of now, nationalistic Ukrainians or for that matter their Army or even Air Force sure are not appearing to stop those Russki MBTs roaring down their main streets in a line and appearing to be headed somewhere deep into Ukraine in a tearing hurry.
That's a multi-axis ingress and they are, as of now appear to be moving in fast.
What's their objective(s)?
Where is the Centre-of-Gravity of this operation going to be?
If I am reading the signs somewhat right, they may be bypassing local forces and racing towards Kyiv.

[SwamyG]

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/trend ... 59071.html

Ukraine envoy to India quotes Mbh and pleads for help from Modi.

[rkirankr]

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/trend ... 59071.html

Ukraine envoy to India quotes Mbh and pleads for help from Modi.

But Ukraine continue to sell arms to pakies. An old article https://www.rbth.com/world/2013/02/25/u ... stan_22529

[John]

Pics of captured Russians they claim they got recruited on Dec and didn’t even get trained before being sent into this. Also Su-25 shot down video emerging (Ukrainian claim its Russian but both side operate it so I will wait for confirmation),

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/ ... ame=iossmf

[rkirankr]

US invades countries under the garb of "civilized" world, the death and destruction caused in Iraq is a tragedy. However as they are third world, it does not matter. Now all the rage is impotent rage of western world

[GShankar]

Sadly we are looking at 2 bill write off on Tushil and Tamala Frigates one of dumbest move we could have possibly have made and we did. See my post in naval discussion thread.

Why a write off? Delays 100%, write off is bit extreme no?

This needs to be one of the things to negotiate to make any statements / actions on the side of russia. Why are we ever ready to put the hands up?

[Hari Nair]

US operated bio-labs in Ukraine possible targets of Russian Force?
Worth a read:
https://www.opindia.com/2022/02/russia- ... ronavirus/

[Thakur_B]

Is there any update on how far deep have Russians managed to penetrate? Armoured columns positions, towns / strategic locations captured?

[vijaykarthik]

This is keenly watched by China. India needs to take some lessons from this. Hope govt takes note.

All said, this is quite a bit of crap from Russia (even though I do have a soft corner for Russia). Poor strategy and we will know in a few weeks if they were poorly prepared too.

On a side note, best defence option for Ukraine will be to have force conc in Kyiv and make it urban warfare. Im reasonably certain US / NATO will have given them some war plans for max impact.

[chanakyaa]

Is there any update on how far deep have Russians managed to penetrate? Armoured columns positions, towns / strategic locations captured?

Both sides putting positive spin
https://southfront.org/height-hours-aft ... an-losses/

[srikandan]

John: Lmao please stop linking to propaganda

Propaganda, it seems. you mean unlike what's going on NBC, Bloomberg, Reuters, AP and CNN and what has been going on there for weeks?

It is not just one side doing the propaganda here and this is Republic TV in the link and this is BRF not ARF.

[Mort Walker]

Looks like air strikes are across Ukraine, but at the same time it appears Russia wants to control Ukraine from the east to the Dnieper River. The military strategy is making sense.

Imagine if India controlled everything east to the Indus River?

[SwamyG]

On a side note, best defence option for Ukraine will be to have force conc in Kyiv and make it urban warfare. Im reasonably certain US / NATO will have given them some war plans for max impact.

Russia will be happy attacking the military positions and not indulge in urban warfare.

[srikandan]

Mort Walker: Imagine if India controlled everything east [corrected] to the Indus River?

good point. Though that goes well beyond the borders of Donetsk/Luhansk.

[Mort Walker]

I meant everything east upto the Indus River.

Russians have to neutralize Odessa and control Mariupol adjacent to Dnieper.

[achy]

It does seem Putin has mis-calculated. Yes, west has no appetite to fight war on behalf of ukraine but west will certainly fight for itself. This will bring russians at their door and they can not let it go anymore. We do have to remember that West is weaker, but even a weaker west is many times stronger then anyone else. The best strategy for Russia would have been a low intensity conflict with gradual creep rather then swift strike. They can achieve de-militirization of ukraine with this gambit but this has now suddenly created a wide open chessboard and might I say unfavorable to Russians long term objectives.

China does gain far more in all this melee. As it will force Russia into their lap and focus of west will shift to containment of Russia rather then containing China. India will be in a piquant situation as it can not be business as usual with Russians anymore. We will have to choose between Russia and West much to our dismay. We would have liked both on our side for at least a decade more. India's defense modernization as well as current preparedness will take a hit as we all know the state of our armament.

One thing we can do at this point is to renounce our NFU. I think we can get away with this change right now and it will also send powerful signals to our adversary for any miscalculation.

[Baikul]

From multiple reports it looks like a general attack on all Ukraine, not just Donetsk and Luhansk. The capital city seems to have been hit.

I think there will be more clarity in a couple of days. A good indicator is how many people have actually died. Foreign TV channels which have 1 reporter in the country, reporting from a hotel room, are in no position to say what is happening.

There’s a bunch of video coming in from various sources that are not necessarily news organisations. Basis those I think it’s a general invasion, not confined to a few areas.

But to your point, I will say that it doesn’t yet ‘feel’ like all out war. Yet. Maybe because the Russians have already overwhelmed the Ukrainians, maybe because the Ukrainians are biding their time, who knows. At the moment we’re getting information about random strikes, troop movements, but no all out engagements like one sees in ‘typical’ battles. We will see. As you said wait a day or two.

These are no optics. It could be start of Cold war 2.0 and U.S pushed as far as they can and Russians are retaking their area back as much as they think they can hold onto without insurgency. Mostly depopulated areas will all go to Russia.

This exactly. IMO, we are going to see increased militarisation and US troop commitment/ bases across NATO nations in the coming year, especially border states. It probably won’t be as intense as the early iron curtain years but cold war 2.0 is now uploading rapidly.

[anupmisra]

So Ukraine is winning. Good. No need to worry for anyone here right.

Before one gets gooey-eyed about the Ukrainians. Many of us old-timers here will remember this. Read this and then decide:

Unlike Russia, Ukraine continues arms supplies to Pakistan

Committing an obvious breach of mutual trust and diplomatic understanding with India, the former Soviet Republic of Ukraine, has once again decided to deliver a big party of 110 main battle tank (MBT) engines and related parts to Pakistan under a $50 million contract.

https://www.rbth.com/world/2013/02/25/u ... stan_22529

Ukrainian defence conglomerate signs $85m contract with Pakistan

Pakistan has awarded a contract worth $85.6 million for modernising T-80UD battle tanks to Ukrainian state arms conglomerate UkrOboronProm.

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/794407 ... h-pakistan

[kvraghav]

^^
How can you say this is not propaganda but anti russia sentiment? The anti russia sentiment is only in the westerners and the green card dreamers. The rest of know the western hypocrisy. Care to comment about the attack on Cuba missile crisis or the non existent WMD in Iraq?

Lot of Eastern Europeans or those of that heritage remember what Stalin had done and life under communism. This almost brings back memories especially Putin speech made it worse, I know of a few families myself. One of them of polish descent who didn’t even care about Russia who live in UK but after the speech they turned into anti Russian because of stories from their childhood and now think Russia will invade Poland next.

You are presenting only western views. and still not called out western mistakes in cuban, viet and iraq.

[John]

Reports from Ukrainian military that over dozen Russian T-72 got wiped out in an ambush.

I only seen video of T-82 with a turret knocked out. So waiting on video of that.

Once again why the heck are Russian tanks traveling in single pile in Ukrainian roadways??