Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 25 Feb 2022 00:31

m_saini wrote:
Atmavik wrote:… when push comes to shove we are on our own and everyone knows this.
Don't think this is true. Yes, nobody would provide support "for India", but there are quite a few countries who would love to support "against China".

Also make no mistakes, West is indeed helping Ukraine. Who would pass up a chance to finger their enemies?

Providing plenty of help in instigating a conflict. As I watch CNN the eggsperts are salivating at making this an Afghanistan for Russia. What happens to Ukraine no one cares

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 25 Feb 2022 00:31

Aditya_V wrote:Can anybody tell me how can Putin get a victory here, he has now lost friends in Europe, put the Russian economy under bus. And if this conflict is long drawn loss of reputation . It does not look for Russia.

Russian economy under bus?
It has a massive forex reserve, way outsized for a country of it's size
Has almost negligible short term debt
Debt to GDP is very low.
He's got all of Europe on his gas drip.
If oil hits a new high, which it will, he only gets richer

He's prepared for this a long time obviously. He knows the euros will just watch and even knee cap any serious retaliation from US and UK.

I'm not seeing this getting ugly for him anytime soon unless the Ukrainians decide to really fight, which so far they haven't been able to.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 25 Feb 2022 00:34

achy wrote:[

QUAD is not reliable entity , as so far as, fighting war on another's behalf is concerned. No one will fight for us just as we wont fight others war. We will have to fight our own war. They will fight theirs. E.g. Will India fight for Japan in case China attacks it? . QUAD as military alliance like NATO will be DOA as it will restrict strategic autonomy of everyone concerned. But it does have sound principle as so far as containment of China is concerned. There is no fundamental power aspirations among QUAD members which is at cross purposes and hence can be used as alliance to force China to behave and ultimately not emerge as sole super power. Also, it does makes sense on many other levels. This is still an emerging doctrine but I think it will settle into sphere of influence and each member taking care of own sphere and then using the co-operation of quad as deterrent for any miscalculation n China's part.

The problem lies in making an implicit assumption that all 4 members of the QUAD are on an equal footing as individual states within it. (This is what I understand from your statement about "it will settle into sphere of influence with each member taking care of own sphere..." etc.)

The fact is, all 4 are NOT on an even footing even within the QUAD. The US has treaty obligations to defend Australia via both ANZUS and now AUKUS. Japan has been a military protectorate of the US since 1945.

So the real picture is that (US + Japan + Australia) ARE treaty-bound to fight each others' wars; they are a true military alliance, like an "Asian NATO" with a collective sphere of influence. We are the odd man out.

What I am saying is, I have no interest in seeing India become the "Asian Ukraine" to this "Asian NATO" (and neither, I believe, do most Indians or the GOI). But some people get overenthusiastic about the import & possibilities of the QUAD.

For them, it is important to never forget how the actual NATO used & discarded the real Ukraine.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 25 Feb 2022 00:34

m_saini: "Fault" depends on whose perspective you see things from. West did whatever they did, to further their own interests. How can anyone fault them for that?

I am no gandhian or nehruvian. Since the point was about the reasons why Ukraine shot itself in its foot, just pointing out the foot-shooting took place in two phases: the first "regime change"was US driven, and the trigger-pulling was done by the corrupt american proxies in charge of Ukraine like Zelensky, also due to american pressure mind you.

Of course, countries allowed to do what they want, but from Indian POV, that holds only as long as does not mess with India's long-term well being. Not so much finding fault as determining the playbooks of different powers when India is still working its way up to prosperity, which will not happen if we do not understand the playbooks of adversaries.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 25 Feb 2022 00:38

<Poof>

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 25 Feb 2022 00:38

Putin has to win quickly. And indecisive or long war could see him taken off the board (democratically or a successful night of the generals scenario), he has to know that. For the West conversely prolonging the war is the best outcome, as they can’t expect an outright victory.

I’m expecting therefore for Putin to absolutely throw everything at this effort, make it nasty, brutish and short.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 25 Feb 2022 00:40

The only way the US comes out on top in this fracas is if it lures the Chinese away with a G2 settlement. India better watch it's back.

m_saini · Post by **m_saini** » 25 Feb 2022 00:42

srikandan wrote: Not so much finding fault as determining the playbooks of different powers when India is still working its way up to prosperity, which will not happen if we do not understand the playbooks of adversaries.

Agreed. And I didn't mean to imply anything perspective-wise, I doubt anyone with a nehruvian mindset would be on brf in the first place. Was just making a point i guess

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 25 Feb 2022 00:46

Cain Marko wrote:
Anant wrote:
There's a reason this forum went to pot. You seriously need mental help. Good luck!
He asked legit questions, answer them if you can instead of getting high and mighty.

Manish_Sharma wrote:

Yes you will, your THAAD isn't capable of intercepting maneuvering MIRVs.

THAAD cannot, but the SM-6 Block 1B has nascent capability against maneuvering hypersonics. A full on defense against hypersonics is the Glide Phase Interceptor program.

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 25 Feb 2022 00:50

Rudradev wrote:China is not Russia, and India is not Ukraine. But one thing is for certain.

After seeing the US & NATO's (non)-response to the invasion of Ukraine, a state that threw in its lot with the West, by its immediate neighbour... any Indian who proclaims that the QUAD is in any way a reliable entity deserves to be slapped.

why so harsh on Indians? Aren't they arm-chair only? Agreed that you have a better chair

At the minimum QUAD has some piskology rhetoric value vis-a-vis sugar land. Let it be.

QUAD did not come to our help before and don't think anyone worth making decisions in our military are going to rely on them in future. All exercises are probably to project power in a place like north indonesian sea and such. And I think that is good for us.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 25 Feb 2022 00:52

Cain Marko wrote:The only way the US comes out on top in this fracas is if it lures the Chinese away with a G2 settlement. India better watch it's back.

And right on cue, from Chatham House...
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/02/is ... d-the-west
"Is it time for a new rapprochement between China and the West?"

From National Interest...
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/do ... eat-200745
"Don’t Use the Ukraine Crisis to Inflate the China Threat "

Many such articles have started to gain high numbers of views on US/UK foreign-policy portals.

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 25 Feb 2022 00:55

1. China is more or less openly supporting Russia. India is not able to do that.
2. China is building bridge between Pakistan and Russia.
3. China is far more powerful and Russia is going to want it in it's corner over the next years.

India's leaders, diplomats and military has its work cut out going ahead. There is NO way forward but go full-steam ahead for Made In India. We have to maintain strategic independence and be very careful of friends, both old and new. But not be shy of making friends because we are going to need whatever we can get.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 25 Feb 2022 00:55

if it is true, closer to Chernihiv means Kyiv could feel the heat within 24 hours. Will Dnieper river be the new LOC?

https://southfront.org/ukraine-results- ... on-videos/

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 25 Feb 2022 01:00

G2 is all about China being the biggest dog and US ally in Asia, so pushing Russia into the arms of China would take the US one step towards that goal. Regardless, China will now be emboldened to take on India, as everyone here has already pointed out.

Anant · Post by **Anant** » 25 Feb 2022 01:03

https://news.rediff.com/commentary/2022 ... 32efb7026a

Some reporter asked Biden whether he had spoken to the Indian govt. He said that they'd reach out today.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 25 Feb 2022 01:05

And in the middle of this war, Russian gas supplies to Western Europe continue via Ukraine

Isn't capitalism great!! Also, if Russia controls Ukraine at the end of this, the need for Nordstream 2 to bypass Ukraine could become redundant from Russia's viewpoint.

Gazprom says Russian gas exports to Europe via Ukraine continue

MOSCOW, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Russian gas exports via Ukraine have continued as normal and are in line with requests from consumers, Russian energy giant Gazprom said on Thursday.

The company said the requests have been at 83 million cubic metres per day as of Feb. 24, up 31.4% from Feb. 23.

Anant · Post by **Anant** » 25 Feb 2022 01:22

Anant wrote:https://news.rediff.com/commentary/2022 ... 32efb7026a

Some Indian reporter asked Biden whether he had spoken to the Indian govt. Biden said that they'd reach out today.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 25 Feb 2022 01:25

I see parallels between Ukraine/NATO and SriLanka/China. A over stretched far off power with several interests around the globe is not something you can rely on. Friendly relations with close neighbours are much more handy.

Anoop · Post by **Anoop** » 25 Feb 2022 01:34

To come back to the point that Gp. Capt. Hari Nair had raised - why is the Ukrainian armed forces not putting up a stronger resistance? If Russia could take Chernobyl with a total casualty of less than 100 on both sides, there's not much fighting going on. Are the Ukrainians luring Russian forces deeper into the heartland, stretching their lines of communication and preparing for urban warfare? That seems their best chance of keeping the fighting going long enough for it to get unpopular for Putin. Even if the Rusians plan on withdrawing soon after declaring victory, they could be ambushed on the way back.

Russian end game of regime change will work only if the new government commands the Ukrainian armed forces' loyalty....otherwise it could be Iraq all over again. So the question is - who is the likely successor that Russia has in mind to succeed Zelensky, and will he/she be able to deliver?

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 25 Feb 2022 01:47

hanumadu wrote:I see parallels between Ukraine/NATO and SriLanka/China.

Interesting comparison. By extension, would India invade Sri Lanka (and Bangladesh) to prevent them from falling into the Chini-trap?

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 25 Feb 2022 01:48

Information from Twitter and Reddit suggests that a key seesaw battle is currently underway for Kyiv airport. Russia had sent paratroopers to capture it, which they did but now apparently they’re under extreme pressure from
the Ukrainians, while waiting for Russian ground forces to link up. This is a pivotal fight.

The below news report was from earlier:
https://amp.france24.com/en/live-news/2 ... -outskirts

It all feels a bit like a miniature version of Market Harden. in WWII.

rags · Post by **rags** » 25 Feb 2022 01:49

Anoop wrote:To come back to the point that Gp. Capt. Hari Nair had raised - why is the Ukrainian armed forces not putting up a stronger resistance? If Russia could take Chernobyl with a total casualty of less than 100 on both sides, there's not much fighting going on. Are the Ukrainians luring Russian forces deeper into the heartland, stretching their lines of communication and preparing for urban warfare? That seems their best chance of keeping the fighting going long enough for it to get unpopular for Putin. Even if the Rusians plan on withdrawing soon after declaring victory, they could be ambushed on the way back.

Russian end game of regime change will work only if the new government commands the Ukrainian armed forces' loyalty....otherwise it could be Iraq all over again. So the question is - who is the likely successor that Russia has in mind to succeed Zelensky, and will he/she be able to deliver?

We have eaten at this restaurant before. The video link below is I believe created on the 10th anniversary of Georgian invasion into Ossetia.

There’s a plague book for this sort of drama.

https://youtu.be/3S2UNV_Izuc

This Is why all the civilians in Donbas And surrounding areas were evacuated to Russia.

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 25 Feb 2022 01:51

Nato's - Kadi Ninda. Why does this invasion sound more like it is preapproved/staged and the west is willing to live with the consequence of the post-invasion?

NATO Allies condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the strongest possible terms

Today, the North Atlantic Council decided to activate NATO’s defence plans to protect Allied nations during this crisis.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_192406.htm

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 25 Feb 2022 01:57

anupmisra: Why does this invasion sound more like it is preapproved/staged and the west is willing to live with the consequence of the post-invasion?

Top 4 reasons based on past posts in the thread (only partly-serious):
4) Their intent is to just stop EU and Russia from becoming economic partners, leading to security partnership.
3) EU is beholden to the USA economically, and has to grin and bear it, but it will not allow US to compromise its Gas supplies from russia
2) USA-trained and extra-ordinarily lethal Grandmother-seal team is still on the bench - the war could change direction if they come out with their guns blazing
1) There are a lot more Ukrainians still alive and the war is not over from the US/EU POV until the last ukrainian drops dead.

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 25 Feb 2022 02:01

Ukraine crisis: PM Modi speaks to Putin, calls for immediate cessation of violence

New Delhi, Feb 24 (PTI) Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the Ukraine conflict and appealed for immediate cessation of violence as well as concerted efforts from all sides to return to the path of diplomatic negotiations.

During their telephonic conversation, President Putin briefed Prime Minister Modi about the recent developments regarding Ukraine, the Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement.

Modi also sensitised the Russian President about India’s concerns regarding the safety of the Indian citizens in Ukraine, especially students, and conveyed that India attaches the highest priority to their safe exit and return.

https://theprint.in/india/ukraine-crisi ... ce/846610/

nam · Post by **nam** » 25 Feb 2022 02:10

Modern full scale war has become a offensive war. The number of options available for an offensive renders defensive posture very expensive to maintain.

The only way out is to have a very powerful airpower. Our defensive posture relaying on numbers is not going to cut it in modern war.

Neither are we investing in airpower, nor modernising our land forces.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 25 Feb 2022 02:18

One of the best coverage in Russian . Small tit bit, they have occupied 400 km long canal that used to provide fresh watrr to Crimea. It was destroyed by Uki.

https://youtu.be/g6JEWLnYUXg
7 deputies in Uki parliament are pushing for talks with Russia.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 25 Feb 2022 02:24

http://Www.liveuamap.com lookup Ukie

And

If you have the
Telegram App

Then look for
Intel Slava Z

Got it from someone at Nukkad, so authenticity is a!!ah ke nam

hgupta · Post by **hgupta** » 25 Feb 2022 02:33

srikandan wrote:
John: US reportedly shared Intel with China on Russian invasion pre Feb 20, this angered the Chinese and Xi reportedly discussed with Putin and he agreed to put off any invasion till post Olympics. It’s no coincidence Putin video of declaration of war was shot on Feb 21st. But released only on 24th.
This is utter horsedung. If you are not going to post links to the claims you are making, please stop. You are deliberately muddying the waters here with your disinformation.

And you aren't?

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 25 Feb 2022 02:37

Rudradev wrote:
Atmavik wrote:QUAD is not a military alliance… when push comes to shove we are on our own and everyone knows this.
Yes, there is a lot of "cute" ambiguity with the QUAD. Its members keep stating that it's "not a military alliance", but then their navies do exercises together. And, supposedly, their governments engage in some level of intelligence sharing along with their diplomatic and economic cooperation.

This is precisely the kind of guessing-game BS that the US & EU baited Ukraine into joining. No, Ukraine is not a NATO member... yes, we will "deter" Russia from attacking by imposing sanctions... no, we will not send troops to Ukraine... yes, we will provide Ukraine with weapons... no, we will not rule out making Ukraine a NATO member in future.

The Ukrainian leadership began to believe that they were in the "inner circle" of the bear-baiting club (even despite not being in NATO). They allowed themselves to become the frontline instrument of bear baiting. And now the Ukrainian people are paying the price.

I don't believe India's (current) leadership is stupid enough to be the Ukraine of the QUAD. But I am grateful that once again, the US & NATO have given us a preview of how they treat their "less than equal" allies as condoms.

Absolutely true Rudradev ji.

John · Post by **John** » 25 Feb 2022 02:47

US markets with a huge rally NASDAQ up 3.3% same cannot be said about Russian stock market.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 25 Feb 2022 02:51

https://www.thequint.com/news/world/ind ... -tirumurti

India's Permanent Representative to United Nations (UN), TS Tirumurti, called for an immediate de-escalation at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) convened on Thursday, 24 February, for an emergency meeting to discuss the Russia-Ukraine crisis, amid Russia’s launch of a "military operation" in Ukraine.

Tirumurti added that the "situation is in danger of spiralling into a major crisis."

and Russia quotes charter 51

Meanwhile, defending the "military operation," Russian representative Vasily Nebenzya at the UNSC said, "Special operation declared by President Putin is to protect the people of Ukraine who have been suffering for years. We aim to de-genocide Ukraine... Decision made in line with Article 51 of UN charter... We will analyze the situation (in Ukraine)," news agency ANI reported.

Article 51 of UN charter seems as useless as the UN. It was also the Article used by USA to go to war with Iraq.

“Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. Measures taken by Members in the exercise of this right of self-defence shall be immediately reported to the Security Council and shall not in any way affect the authority and responsibility of the Security Council under the present Charter to take at any time such action as it deems necessary in order to maintain or restore international peace and security.”

Diplomatic package looks nice.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 25 Feb 2022 03:02

https://twitter.com/i/status/1496886736752099328

Former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on BBC Arabic: The Ukraine Crisis Could Distract the World from the Climate Crisis While Having Massive Emissions Consequences.

consequences of nocturnal emissions of the strategic planners of world powers is a problem. Nicely said.

sohamn · Post by **sohamn** » 25 Feb 2022 03:02

[img]

hgupta wrote:
srikandan wrote:
This is utter horsedung. If you are not going to post links to the claims you are making, please stop. You are deliberately muddying the waters here with your disinformation.
And you aren't?

[/img]

This is not horsedung and is an accurate information and has been reported in multiple sites.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 25 Feb 2022 03:07

Looks like after the initial shock the UKR forces are now responding in certain sections (eg: Anantov airport reclaimed it seems).

Very likely UKR wants this to be an urban war, where their Javelins etc can wreak havoc on RU armor.

I just hope diplomacy puts an end to the hostilities soon enough.

sohamn · Post by **sohamn** » 25 Feb 2022 03:10

Cyrano wrote:
Rudradev wrote:
Yes, there is a lot of "cute" ambiguity with the QUAD. Its members keep stating that it's "not a military alliance", but then their navies do exercises together. And, supposedly, their governments engage in some level of intelligence sharing along with their diplomatic and economic cooperation.

This is precisely the kind of guessing-game BS that the US & EU baited Ukraine into joining. No, Ukraine is not a NATO member... yes, we will "deter" Russia from attacking by imposing sanctions... no, we will not send troops to Ukraine... yes, we will provide Ukraine with weapons... no, we will not rule out making Ukraine a NATO member in future.

The Ukrainian leadership began to believe that they were in the "inner circle" of the bear-baiting club (even despite not being in NATO). They allowed themselves to become the frontline instrument of bear baiting. And now the Ukrainian people are paying the price.

I don't believe India's (current) leadership is stupid enough to be the Ukraine of the QUAD. But I am grateful that once again, the US & NATO have given us a preview of how they treat their "less than equal" allies as condoms.
Absolutely true Rudradev ji.

QUAD is not a military alliance yet and we shouldn't expect any help from QUAD in the event of war. Ukraine neglected its military for decades and is a prime example for us "what not to do". We need a strong and effective military that relies on its own weapon systems and for the most part not dependent on either Russia or USA. But the immediate aftermath is that Russia will become more reliant on China and its slave brother for sustenance and that probably doesn't bode well for us both in terms of the high tech weapon systems that we got from Russia and assistance in UN / global politics. Also, trade and parts supply from both Russia and Ukraine for our gas turbines, AN 32 fleet, and russian origin weapon systems will face severe constraints. Raksha Mantri needs to urgently re-strategize.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 25 Feb 2022 03:14

A useful map:

Source: http://www.visualcapitalist.com

John · Post by **John** » 25 Feb 2022 03:16

Hope one thing we learn from this is the importance of night fighting equipment available to the troops, gruesome pics emerging of Russians forces after being ambushed in the dark and none of their bodies seem to have any night vision on. Likely didn’t even know what hit them. This the contingent that attacked Sumy.

Rishirishi · Post by **Rishirishi** » 25 Feb 2022 03:18

sohamn wrote:
Cyrano wrote:
Absolutely true Rudradev ji.
QUAD is not a military alliance yet and we shouldn't expect any help from QUAD in the event of war. Ukraine neglected its military for decades and is a prime example for us "what not to do". We need a strong and effective military that relies on its own weapon systems and for the most part not dependent on either Russia or USA. But the immediate aftermath is that Russia will become more reliant on China and its slave brother for sustenance and that probably doesn't bode well for us both in terms of the high tech weapon systems that we got from Russia and assistance in UN / global politics. Also, trade and parts supply from both Russia and Ukraine for our gas turbines, AN 32 fleet, and russian origin weapon systems will face severe constraints. Raksha Mantri needs to urgently re-strategize.

I wonder if Khans visit to Russia today is a strong message to India. Choose a side.....Hopefully India will resist any idea of alienating itself from the west.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 25 Feb 2022 03:41

Im the sim visited Russia to get a phone call from Biden. Pure delusion