India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[m_saini]

To the aam abdul, sophistry of national interest does not direct their choice of right and wrong. If all we depend on is our own strength in any future battle, none of this matters - why even participate in the global system - it is everyone for themselves.

You participate in global system **precisely** because it's everyone for themselves. If "right/wrong", "good/bad", "moral/immoral" mattered, then we could happily sit in isolation satisfied with the belief that no-one would harm us because it's obviously "wrong/bad/immoral" to do so. Or if someone still did, then US would come save us out of the goodness of their hearts, democratic & moral principles and the desire for freedom for everyone.

But alas, it doesn't work like that.

[Rakesh]

May I ask, however little value you place on intelligence, do you actually think Russia would provide Chinese naval asset coordinates in a war with China? The same game-theoretic argument of national interest applies to Russia's relationship with China - they will be completely in the sidelines. Is it not clear that Chinese undersea assets are significant and well at the limits of Indian detection? And why would the West help - it undermines their enemy with no risk - India takes the risk, and yet the coordinates are useful, and Russia won't.

Why would China share the coordinates of her naval assets with Russia? Please advise. What intelligence does Russia have on Chinese naval assets in the South China Sea? The Chinese naval fleet that engages the Indian Navy offensively will come from here.

The US would have far more actionable intelligence on Chinese naval movements in the South China Sea than what Russia would ever have. Russia would be quite frankly unhelpful to India in this scenario.

As to moral high ground, India today was on the same side as China and UAE - says everything. Pretty much every country in the world objected and I am not talking of just the UNSC vote. The US is a transactional pig most of the time - doesn't mean a broken clock is not sometimes right.

Perhaps we need to stop looking at our vote as equivalence to what China and UAE did? They voted for their own interests. We voted for ours. Is India now to think twice about who else is voting like us, so perhaps we should not vote in that manner?

Would that not violate our fundamental philosophy - an independent foreign policy?

Which brings up the need for India to be completely self sufficient and it is well on the path. The point of vulnerability with China is in the interim - 10 years from now, there is no argument about India's self defense and China is no fool. Mutual self interest drives systems together - where exactly is the commonality with China in this vote. They are a straight up competitor - militarily and hegemonically. With economic clout, they will control Russian decision making. I am saying this purely from an Indian national interest perspective - Russia is beholden. The problem with my argument is that US is an absolute disaster of a partner. US behavior has to fundamentally change.

Since Russia is unreliable and the US is an absolute disaster of a partner, the only viable option for India is to go at it alone.

That is what today's vote signified. I am puzzled as to why this is so troubling to you.

Non alignment has reached a logical conclusion. Finland and Sweden are looking at NATO. It is not color of skin that I am commenting on for international relations. The fact here is that the US has had a tiered relationship model that simply does not work - color of skin be damned, it is long term history, and much as you wish, it is what it is. The basic mistake US is making is in not aggressively pursuing a much closer relationship with India akin to UK-UK in WWII. There is no future for the US without it.

Is it India's role to be concerned about the future of the US?

If the US has doubts of its survivability as a nation (or as you put it ---> US has no future without engaging India), then perhaps it should drop her restrictive and intrusive agreements and open the technological floodgates for India. After all, India has a large and skilled workforce that would be ripe for the picking. But just a caveat aharam, that relationship will have to be genuine and not transactional. The US will have to give India everything and I mean everything. And India will not compromise on key fundamental issues. But unfortunately that has yet to happen.

The ball lies in the US' court and not in India's. It is the US that has to take that giant leap of faith. India will then walk in step.

And if you find that not palatable, please remember it is a question of the US' survival. Not India's. Your own words.

Transactional behavior generates transactional results because diplomats retire and the next generation doesn't remember the causes of the transaction. They see the results and how it maps to their world view of right and wrong. I am not arguing for some new understanding with the West - just that the opportunity for it was lost. Put terribly, this was an opportunity for a longer term transaction that ensured some support for India. The path you recommend has India on its own - a Russia beholden to China and the rest of the world looking on (probably still with Israel's resupply). Whatever one's strength, allies are always useful.

I will have to push back on that assertion again. Regardless of diplomats that retire, the US is well aware of India's position.

I believe you are stitching some fantasy that a vote today would have resulted in a longer term transaction. That is not true.

The part I foresee is the lesson China learns from this - it emboldens its risk taking against India. We should never lose sight of that. Everything else is a sideshow.

On the contrary, the only lesson that China has learnt is the US is an unreliable partner and Taiwan is now fair game for them.

Taiwan is next, after Ukraine. Xi can see the writing on the wall.

P.S.: Please believe me when I say, I haven't lost track since I left India, just gone back to the basics.

Tracking India from where ever you are Sir, is not the same as living in India. That is not an apples to apples comparison.

Many on this forum - who argue for a closer Indo-US relationship - have made that same mistake with similar results. They are in the same boat as you i.e. a NRI who closely tracks India, but are blissfully unaware of how India has moved on from the 60s, 70s and 80s. Practically impossible to do that when you don't live in the country on a permanent basis and view India through a Western lens. And then try to mold India in that lens. When India does not comply, it deeply frustrates individuals like yourself.

The expectations of Indians who live in India today are vastly different from the expectations you had when you lived in India at one point in your life. How the India of today, views the whole international rules based order, freedom and democracy is different from the west. If you want India to walk in step with the west, you have to first fundamentally understand how the India of today is. You have to engage the India of today and not engage her using the worn out notion of America-Leads-the-World-to-Freedom-and-Prosperity.

That ship has long sailed aharam. It is best you realize that fact, get off that ship and learn to accept the new world order in which nations (like India) will engage and partner with other nations that may be at odds with the United States. It is called multipolar alignment. The old notion of US-led military alliances is done. The old notion of my way or the highway is done.

In a India/China conflict, where would you currently expect any help however small would come from - a beholden Russia or a transactional west (US + EU) that sees the same long term ideologically incompatible entity in China.

That is why I asked you Sir this simple question, to a point that you raised - rapid loss replacement. You did not reply to it, which is puzzling, because you were the one who brought it up. But I ask again. Let us have this discussion. Why shy away from it?

The rapid loss replacement argument has been thoroughly disproven. But I would be pleased to have that discussion again. Since that line of argument has been brought up as a plus point that the West has, let us talk platform specific when we hash out the details. Would make for a much more interesting discussion. Which platform would you like to start with in the realm of rapid loss replacement? My suggestion is below;

* Fighter Aircraft (Rafale, F-21, Eurofighter, F-15EX, Gripen E, F-18SH). I am including all the 4th generation western aircraft here, but we can narrow the list down to country specific if you like i.e. French, US, UK, Swedish, etc.

Before we get into other western platforms (artillery, infantry weapons, surface-to-air missile systems, naval vessels, armoured vehicles, etc) perhaps we can start with fighter aircraft first?

[ramana]

Folks the thread is about Eastern Europe.
Don't bring in Indian abstain in UN.

[Rakesh]

Folks the thread is about Eastern Europe.
Don't bring in Indian abstain in UN.

Agreed Ramana-ji. But humbly request for some leeway, just for a little while.

There are some fundamental issues that we need to clear up.

[Manish_P]

Tracking India from where ever you are Sir, is not the same as living in India. That is not an apples to apples comparison.

Many on this forum - who argue for a closer Indo-US relationship - have made that same mistake with similar results. They are in the same boat as you i.e. a NRI who closely tracks India, but are blissfully unaware of how India has moved on from the 60s, 70s and 80s. Practically impossible to do that when you don't live in the country on a permanent basis and view India through a Western lens. And then try to mold India in that lens. When India does not comply, it deeply frustrates individuals like yourself.

...

+1

This needed to be said.

[ramana]

In an India/China conflict, Late. Gen Rawat said India should work on assumption they will be alone. If someone helps its for their own interest.
Sandeep Unnithan tweeted it.

As for what will Russia do?

With its long borders and disputes with China and declining population, Russia would be hard pressed if India is defeated. So logic says they will assist India to survive in their own interests.

In fact, look through this prism even during Khruschev-Bulganin days.

[Neela]

IMHO, given we have multiple strategic programs underway with Russia, get a lot of kit from there, and prefer a multi polar world to balance out the west and its virtue signaling and brazen actions against even Indian interests, we need Russia on our side. Or at the very least non hostile to us. The western strategic commentators and establishments treat our native civilizational interests and belief systems, our desire to decolonialize with unbridled hostility and interference, so we need powers to balance them out and also prevent Russia and China from linking up completely and becoming an anti India force.

Maybe.
Maybe too that when India becomes a $8T economy and beyond, and when our indigenization programs lead to better products undercutting the Russian dependency, the roles are reversed . We've stood by Soviets/Russia for too long but still at a lower pecking order. When our economy is large enough and we create the necessary infra to nullify any sanctions from anyone (which we already are), we need to push our worldview across and be *that* force which makes is truly multipolar. The roles will automatically reverse. The clamour for India to make an statement is already a hint. The overflights over Saudi to Israel, something unfathomable even now, shows our clout. Our sphere of influence is growing.

Our past relations with Russia cannot be a template for future relations. Things will change and a hostile Russia cannot be ruled out when Indian interests and needs start to get bigger. we have to strike it on our own!
>s treat our native civilizational interests and belief systems, our desire to decolonialize with unbridled hostility and interference,
The colonial viewpoint will change as newer generation of kids with lot more exposure to India, Indians , INdian culture and civilization , take charge even as their Abrahamic viewpoint collapses under its scandals & sheer weight of own evil.

[Shaktimaan]

What exactly is the "right side of history"? Whose history are we talking about?

Don't use all this western terminology about history here when you belong to a 5,000 year old civilisation.

[Baikul]

As for what will Russia do?

With its long borders and disputes with China and declining population, Russia would be hard pressed if India is defeated. So logic says they will assist India to survive in their own interests.

In fact, look through this prism even during Khruschev-Bulganin days.

Ramana ji, I’d say we cannot be so sure of Russia’s actions? With a declining population and a (presumably) worsening economy they may at some stage on the future be tempted to trade off their border problems with China by looking the other way for ours.

[ramana]

When in choppy times we should read KS garu and let him be our Hari Seldon.

[Baikul]

A giant among men. Had the privilege of meeting him. Nostalgia ain’t what it used to be, as the saying goes.

[aharam]

....

Apologies for the italics - I don’t know how to quote in between text.

That was my point. Russia would be in no position to get us coordinates, whereas the US with commonality in the P8 platform can easily pass track information with plausible deniability. Much as we hate it, US EU tracking tech is better [/i]

I agree with your point on self-interest voting. In that sense, abstaining was the correct answer. And Ukraine is no friend - Al Khalid is a constant reminder. Ukraine acted in its economic interest when it dealt with Pakistan and cannot expect any other response from India. Some others said, Ukraine’s government was a US stooge and created in the revolution of ‘14. That’s not quite true - disinformation works both ways. Their government is legitimate and people there are fighting to preserve it, because their economic system while still corrupt is nowhere as bad as pre ‘14, when it was systemic. They don’t want to go backwards.

To me, it is the principle that matters. The Ukraine assault emboldens China to solve the Taiwan problem similarly, after which it will consider itself the elder statesman of Asia requiring India’s acquiescence. This is the same playbook of ‘62 by different means - India keeps getting relegated. China itself was another classic example of US short sightedness that they now face both as an economic and military competitor - having made it the economic competitor. This would normally be called criminally stupid.

While US is a disaster of a partner, going it alone against an economically superior China of unknown actual prowess (and a lot of image manipulation), is unnecessary. Why not use the West antagonism to China to advantage - they will not fight, but at least they have useful intelligence. Time for India to use others to their advantage than just going it alone wouldn’t you say

That was the point I was trying to get across. The ball is in US court, not India. They need to make the move, because it would be a massive and unjustified leap of faith for India otherwise. Our diplomats should have played hardball to laid out the ground rules - US needed India far more on this than vice versa, just like the US has done in the past, we should have used it for some serious long term arm twisting.

The vote with the US wouldn’t have done anything without the arm twisting of the US above. India needs to push the same transactional behavior from the US it has faced back at the US to get its own outcomes.

We see the same problem. Taiwan is next and that does not bode well. India will be as independent as it always has been in its outlook and behavior. China does not tolerate a second power - there can’t be two tigers in the same mountain. China needs a bloody nose to understand the reality of a multi-polar world - they fundamentally don’t. Their assumption is economic might and GNP is the equivalent of a victory in war and they have to be disabused of this notion of hierarchy with the Middle Kingdom being the well middle of it. I only care about who can help India and more importantly who has assets to help.

I left in the mid ‘90s, so not that far out of reality and I am not trying to mold India into any lens other than self interest of India. Also, while you are right that my experiences are not the same as India now, similarly, you should not ignore the outlook of Indians elsewhere that can see how other systems view it and their judgement of who will help. US is also not the same as the ‘90s where Pak was its central focus. There are millions of Indians here and many multi-millionaires running companies and influencing the view of Indians here as best we can. Please do not underestimate the goodwill this has generated. The difference is night and day between when I first came here in the mid 90s and 25 years+ hence. Indians are pretty much woven in here - not as much as London, but getting there. This is decades of another form of soft diplomacy - India is not without friends in the West.

US is on the way down, but it has inertia. It will be a while before it loses dominant military power - my belief is at least another two decades. History says baton has to pass on. India should take that baton and accelerate the path to its leadership. This is where common world view is useful. It is either India or China at the lead. China is in the US doghouse, which automatically makes India a better option for the US. NY Times and Washington Post columnists constant harping on Kashmir do not actually represent US understanding of India. There are millions of Indians here that create that goodwill.

This would be in the platforms we actually own - US and EU do not fear a MAD situation with China if they armed India, quite unlike the current situation with Ukraine. With your list below, it would be Rafale’s, Apache’s, transports, ASW and heavy lifters. Any other platforms would be obvious to China, and imply a direct intervention by Western powers. This is not because the US and EU are a friend, it is because it is in their interest to not lose Asia entirely - this is fundamentally western interest. Indian diplomats should be aggressively taking advantage of this. I am simply taking the national interest argument to what is the logical conclusion I see.

[kvraghav]

A complete monopoly of super power is bad for all smaller countries. Imagine a world where Russia no more exists and the US has its way. From this consideration alone, it is necessary for Russia to survive and thrive and balance the US. The whole outrage reeks of racism when no one opened their mouth when innocent Afghans were bombed after US exit just to prove a point.

[aharam]

A complete monopoly of super power is bad for all smaller countries. Imagine a world where Russia no more exists and the US has its way. From this consideration alone, it is necessary for Russia to survive and thrive and balance the US. The whole outrage reeks of racism when no one opened their mouth when innocent Afghans were bombed after US exit just to prove a point.

This is the fundamental US problem. And it absolutely reeks of racism. Afghan or Iraqi lives don’t matter and in orders of magnitude greater quantities but Ukrainian and Russian do. This is truly unconscionable and negates much if not all of the goodwill.

[Cain Marko]

Folks the thread is about Eastern Europe.
Don't bring in Indian abstain in UN.

Agreed Ramana-ji. But humbly request for some leeway, just for a little while.

There are some fundamental issues that we need to clear up.

Agree with the venerable Admiral, Ramana sir. This is a good conversation, and very informed point by point arguments/rebuttals. Just for a little while hold off the sanctions. In any case, the moment something hot happens in the crisis, everyone will drop this and go back to going zero.

[syam]

India doesn't need to uphold the so called 'Hindu' values about morals and 'dharma'. It's secular state. Not Hindu country. We are not supposed to put 'Hindu' values in action here.

We can be stupid and selfish. Let us think about our immediate future instead yapping about morals and things which applies only to Indians.

p.s. all these statements can be withdrawn ofcourse, if western media admits India is Hindu country and our government has to follow hindu values.

[Cyrano]

"We are not supposed to put 'Hindu' values in action here."

India _is_ and _will be_ Hindu-secular just as the West is Christian-secular, and our secularism comes from live and let live, their's comes from the need to keep inter-denominational fratricide to a minimum to dominate the world. Understanding this fundamental difference will help view west-initiated conflicts in a correct perspective, especially when they spill out of the west.

India did absolutely the right thing. US & NATO have a compulsive need to keep painting Russia as a villain to keep their own internal rhetoric going, and to feed their insatiable MIC with a conflict somewhere every decade or so. They have (ab)used a gullible, ethnically divided and naive Ukraine this time, and made it poke the bear too often. Now the bear is retaliating. Which is being spun with the UNSC resolution to say "look - we told you Russia is the villain - they just proved it so must be punished"

I see India's abstaining on the UN SC vote as a message to US, UK, France et al that we are now dancing together more often, but we do see through your games and we are not stupid. Our self interest comes first, and we are not exactly desperate to get into your good books to earn a pat on the back. Absolutely the right thing to do. That China and UAE also abstained is irrelevant to our posture.

I don't buy this argument that Russia's invasion of Ukraine will serve as a template for China to do the same on India. May be partially for China wrt Taiwan, but China-India equation is totally different, we dont share the same history, culture, world view, geography or military (im)balance. If China is foolish enough to try invading India because Russia invaded Ukraine - good luck with that !

If anyone is being tested now, its US and its NATO allies. The world and India is watching how far they will back up a country that has thrown its lot with them, and what exactly they can do a belligerent country like Russia that refused to play by their book. Might be useful for India a few decades down the line.

[LakshmanPST]

Folks the thread is about Eastern Europe.
Don't bring in Indian abstain in UN.

Sir, just a suggestion...
Is it possible to create a separate thread for this war & other related developments and shift all posts in last 3 days to that thread...? Current thread may be left for general East Europe discussion...
Also once the dust settles, lot of information will come up regarding the actual progress of war and various tactics used by both sides...

[KLNMurthy]

That is exactly what I am talking about. You are mistaking individual relationships for population dynamics - democratic systems have an actual value system. When there is a strong dissonance between individual values and government behavior, it doesn't continue for long. Ask yourself this - given arbitrary wealth, where would you live. Russia, China, or somewhere else. It doesn't have to be the west. Maldives, NZ, Thailand are perfectly good answers. Then honestly ask yourself why.

If you put the same question to a wealthy Paki he too would probably say USA or Western Europe. So does it mean Pakistan has the same civilizational values as US, and by your implication, same values as India?

Same is true of wealthy Chinese, Russians, etc.

[KLNMurthy]

Looks like influencers are now being deployed on BR.

Popcorn time?

[Primus]

Please, let's argue honestly. Saudi US relationship is transactional, and you are seeing the outcome when transaction is not worthwhile. Same with Pak - the west is not some cult of personality - people have to have shared values................

Western democratic systems are eventually driven by their people's perception. That value system is the same with India, and not with autocratic regimes like China, and increasingly Russia.

Aharam Ji, I too have lived in the 'West' for almost 40 yrs. None of these people or countries are milk-white and pure of thought or ideology. It is very much driven by self-interest. People's perceptions regardless of level of education are based on what the media and the government tell them - we all remember Iraq and WMD, don't we?

Pak and the West do not share any values - they are in fact entirely opposite of each other. And yet the US continues to support Pakis because self-interest always trumps any moral ideology.

Both China and Russia may be autocratic, but for their own people, the current regimes have done much better than any previous ones did, you only have to visit China to see how far they have come and how they are all so proud of their country (even if the latter is part of the 'programming').

Being the 'good boy' never helped India on the International stage. It is only when Modi started talking about the power of 1.3 billion people and the world woke up to realize he is not the pushover that his predecessors were that they started respecting us. People, countries and societies in general are the same - they respect the powerful. You may like the meek and the 'honest' but such entities never really inherit the earth, IMHO.

[hanumadu]

Looks like influencers are now being deployed on BR.

Popcorn time?

I would say just ignore.

[uddu]

[Rakesh]

Folks the thread is about Eastern Europe.
Don't bring in Indian abstain in UN.

Sir, just a suggestion...
Is it possible to create a separate thread for this war & other related developments and shift all posts in last 3 days to that thread...? Current thread may be left for general East Europe discussion...
Also once the dust settles, lot of information will come up regarding the actual progress of war and various tactics used by both sides...

I have moved a number of the relevant posts in this thread.

[chetak]

x posted from the ukraine thread

suddenly these guys are sounding reasonable onlee

what gives

@ANI · 19h
We've a broad strategic partnership with India, share values. India has a relationship with Russia that is distinct from the relationship that we've with Russia that is okay. What we've asked every country is to use that leverage in a constructive way: US State Dept Spox

have they forgotten this

[Cyrano]

Could be a grudging admission that NaMo is one of the last people left who can actually get across to Putin

[SRajesh]

Will this war/invasion/skirmish (call what you may) be defining moment in Indo-USA relationship
I feel that nothing short of joint development of defence products with joint ownership of patents right will be way forward if NaMo retains power in 2024
Will QUAD be the first casualty?? But having said that Australia and Japan are very quiet about the whole episode

[eklavya]

But having said that Australia and Japan are very quiet about the whole episode

Australia and Japan have condemned Russia’s actions in very clear terms:

STATEMENT ON RUSSIA'S INVASION OF UKRAINE

MEDIA STATEMENT
24 Feb 2022
Prime Minister, Minister for Foreign Affairs

Australia joins our partners in condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

There is no justification for this aggression, whose cost will be borne by innocent Ukrainians.

Vladimir Putin has fabricated a feeble pretext on which to invade. Russia’s disinformation and propaganda has convinced no one.

We call on Russia to cease its illegal and unprovoked actions, and to stop violating Ukraine’s independence. Russia must reverse its breach of international law and of the UN Charter, and withdraw its military from Ukraine.

We reiterate our staunch support for Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity – the bedrock principles of a rules-based world order.

Russia’s actions are of deep concern to Australians – especially those who have family and loved ones there.

Australia will continue playing our part to ensure Russia pays the high price this invasion warrants.

We will place financial sanctions on an additional 25 persons and four entities who have been responsible for the unprovoked and unacceptable aggression.

We will put restrictions on Australians investing in a further four financial institutions.

We will be working with like-minded countries on further consequences for Russia.

The Australian Government will continue working with our partners to keep Australians safe and defend our values and principles.

The launch of military actions by Russia in Ukraine (Statement by Foreign Minister HAYASHI Yoshimasa)

1. On February 24, Russia launched military actions in Ukraine.

2. These actions clearly infringe upon the Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, constitute a serious violation of international law prohibiting use of force, and are a grave breach of the United Nations Charter. Any unilateral change of the status quo by force is totally unacceptable. This is an extremely serious situation that shakes the foundation of international order not only in Europe but also in Asia. Japan condemns the actions in the strongest terms. Japan strongly urges Russia to cease the attack and withdraw its forces back to Russian territory immediately.

3. Japan will continue to make efforts to improve the situation in cooperation with the international community, including G7, standing with Ukraine and its people.

[aharam]

Aharam Ji, I too have lived in the 'West' for almost 40 yrs. None of these people or countries are milk-white and pure of thought or ideology. It is very much driven by self-interest. People's perceptions regardless of level of education are based on what the media and the government tell them - we all remember Iraq and WMD, don't we?

I fully agree - US in particular has a very dubious record of wars. I well remember Iraq and most of us knew that there was no WMD well before the war - it was no secret, there were articles IAEA reports. That was the excuse fed to finish the old war and it was a useless mistake. Afg at least had an excuse, but that was a mess also previously fostered by the US. The US is often wrong.

Pak and the West do not share any values - they are in fact entirely opposite of each other. And yet the US continues to support Pakis because self-interest always trumps any moral ideology.

That is correct. These are true transactional relationships. Consider on the other hand the relationship between EU states or US-UK and now AUS. They co-design and share military equipment. These relationships are not transactional - they are based on shared values, the core of which is secularism. A few posts ago, the core similarity between Indian and Western secularism is captured very well.

China is economically ahead and India is building its tech as fast as it can. Access at the core level to western technologies can help accelerate it. My belief is that there is skirmish coming with China since they desire a pecking order and not true multi polarity. The recent all weather pact of China and Russia will lead to core Russian technologies coming to China. Economically, the sanctions on Russia will be blunted by China and this would be the cost. That said, I don't see how Russia comes out ahead in this - it is weakening itself against China.

The counter argument would be that Russia doesn't fully trust China and will not part with its technologies. That's why the all weather pact worries me - these issues may already be resolved.

I am sure the folks at the foreign ministry have gamed this out far more thoroughly. This is just an opinion in a thread.

Both China and Russia may be autocratic, but for their own people, the current regimes have done much better than any previous ones did, you only have to visit China to see how far they have come and how they are all so proud of their country (even if the latter is part of the 'programming').

I am not sure I buy that logic. Dictatorships are highly efficient top down structures, and Germans were quite happy with Hitler - economy was booming, Autobahn etc. On the other hand India has a very different trade-off. I do not ever see India being autocratic - its sheer variety and resilience prevents that structure and it takes the efficiency loss with it. It is part of the trade-off and the same trade-off made in the West as well.

Being the 'good boy' never helped India on the International stage. It is only when Modi started talking about the power of 1.3 billion people and the world woke up to realize he is not the pushover that his predecessors were that they started respecting us. People, countries and societies in general are the same - they respect the powerful. You may like the meek and the 'honest' but such entities never really inherit the earth, IMHO.

I have never been a proponent of being a 'good boy', quite the complete opposite. My belief is there will be no peace on the India/China border till China is given a bloody nose, at the earliest possible opportunity. That will also quieten the Pak border by example and allow India to focus on its economy. Everything else I said before is to get to this goal. India has long been passive, it is time to speak the other language.

[Rakesh]

Apologies for the italics - I don’t know how to quote in between text.

I edited your post to remove all my quotes and your replies in italics. Please look at your post and when replying, please just follow that model if you choose. You don't need to quote my replies. Just post away, para after para. But i can see above, you have mastered it. So whatever you feel is easier.

That was my point. Russia would be in no position to get us coordinates, whereas the US with commonality in the P8 platform can easily pass track information with plausible deniability. Much as we hate it, US EU tracking tech is better.

From where you getting the notion that India hates the idea that US-EU tracking tech is better? Why the need to go down that path?

The Indian Navy is impressed with the P-8I platform. They have 12 of them. An additional six have been put on hold, post the C-295 deal. Perhaps it may come or perhaps it may not. It was supposed to have COMCASA-cleared equipment, unlike the previous 12.

Russia is no position to provide those coordinates because they have no interest in tracking Chinese naval vessels in the South China Sea. Why would I go to Moscow for pav-bhaji and vada pav....when I can go to my local Mumbai road stall and get it? This is a strawman argument.

I agree with your point on self-interest voting. In that sense, abstaining was the correct answer.

Thank you for admitting that fact. Because that was India's primary reason in voting - Self Interest.

Everything else flows from that Aharam. All nations do this. Why should India be different?

To me, it is the principle that matters. The Ukraine assault emboldens China to solve the Taiwan problem similarly, after which it will consider itself the elder statesman of Asia requiring India’s acquiescence. This is the same playbook of ‘62 by different means - India keeps getting relegated.

Do we really want to go down the rabbit hole of principle ? Really?

What principle - if any - has the US actually followed, other than its own self interest? That self interest has been their only guiding principle. But the same is equally true for India. What is good for the goose, is good for the gander no?

When China takes over Taiwan, it will not require any acquiescence from India. China will do whatever it feels is necessary. Any *perceived* acquiescence from India will not happen. India's silence is not to be translated as acquiescence either.

China itself was another classic example of US short sightedness that they now face both as an economic and military competitor - having made it the economic competitor. This would normally be called criminally stupid.

It is precisely this criminally stupid behaviour of the United States that makes India wary of walking in step with her.

Very challenging for a 5,000+ year old civilization to whole heartedly agree or partner with a 246 year old upstart democracy on virtually any issue. America is like a petulant toddler with a flawed sense of self-entitlement and has yet to graduate from the daycare, diaper, bottle and nipple stage. Donald Trump illustrated that point beautifully for 4 years. When the US grows up to be mature and learns to accept the reality of multipolar alignment, perhaps India can revisit this issue with the US.

The United States is indeed criminally stupid. It comes from upbringing (UK) actually.

Well said Aharam. I fully agree. +108 to you!

While US is a disaster of a partner, going it alone against an economically superior China of unknown actual prowess (and a lot of image manipulation), is unnecessary. Why not use the West antagonism to China to advantage - they will not fight, but at least they have useful intelligence. Time for India to use others to their advantage than just going it alone wouldn’t you say.

And that intelligence sharing is occurring. The situation in Ukraine and India's subsequent abstain vote is not going to change that.

It is in the interest of the United States and her navy, that intelligence is continually shared with the India and her navy. Trade that flows from the South China Sea into the Indian Ocean and beyond is vital to the entire world, of which the United States is a key member. The US is also part of what humanity calls Planet Earth. In the words of late US President John Fitzgerald Kennedy, “For, in the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet. We all breathe the same air. We all cherish our children’s future. And we are all mortal.”

One abstain vote is not going to change anything. The usual noise will be made by US analysts, Ukrainians and human right groups, but it will be back to business as usual. Already the EU nations that have sanctioned Russia are asking for exceptions and exclusions. The hypocrisy is amazing.

That was the point I was trying to get across. The ball is in US court, not India. They need to make the move, because it would be a massive and unjustified leap of faith for India otherwise. Our diplomats should have played hardball to laid out the ground rules - US needed India far more on this than vice versa, just like the US has done in the past, we should have used it for some serious long term arm twisting.

Since it is the US that needs to make the first step - as you have clearly indicated above - then perhaps you should take this discussion to US geopolitical analysts and not pontificate here on BRF? I am being genuinely sincere in that statement and not sarcastic.

There is really nothing of any tangible value that India could have negotiated from the United States in a 12th hour UN vote. Anything of meaningful value would take months to negotiate and hash out. Not possible Sir, just not possible. The course of action you are suggesting that India should have taken would just not occur in the timeframe that was available.

We see the same problem. Taiwan is next and that does not bode well. India will be as independent as it always has been in its outlook and behavior. China does not tolerate a second power - there can’t be two tigers in the same mountain. China needs a bloody nose to understand the reality of a multi-polar world - they fundamentally don’t. Their assumption is economic might and GNP is the equivalent of a victory in war and they have to be disabused of this notion of hierarchy with the Middle Kingdom being the well middle of it. I only care about who can help India and more importantly who has assets to help.

China - on paper and in quantity - has always held a very clear advantage over India. And since two tigers cannot occupy the same mountain, perhaps China should escalate a lot higher than it did at Doklam in 2017 and at Galwan in 2020. China has the clear advantage. Who or what is stopping China from giving India a bloody nose? In fact, the desire to teach the evil Yindoos a lesson is all the more attractive now. It is a low hanging fruit for the ChiComs. Do it. In fact, it would be a good warm up exercise for Xi, pre Taiwan. Send in the troops. Launch the rockets. Send in the fighters and bombers.

No one is going to help India overtly, but covertly a lot of help is indeed coming in from the West.

However if Xi decides to invade Taiwan first and the US (just like they did in Afghanistan and now Ukraine) sits by and watches the tamasha, then it is to be expected by India that the United States is indeed an unreliable ally and India is all on her own.

I left in the mid ‘90s, so not that far out of reality and I am not trying to mold India into any lens other than self interest of India.

But Sir, that is what you are doing by asking India to have not abstained in her vote at the UN. That there is an issue of morality here. You are saying this. Do you really believe that you (or I) have the moral authority to speak for 1+ billion Indian citizens?

Or can Indians living in India not make her own decisions? Do Indians need to be lectured by others, especially NRIs? Is the global experience that NRIs boast about more valuable than the experience of India's citizenry? Are we really claiming this?

The entire model of the UN rests on the global community arguing their views on a common stage. Those views are counted via votes placed by Ambassadors who represent their respective countries. India's vote came from a democratically elected government that overwhelmingly won the 2019 General Elections and have a clear majority in Indian Parliament. Can the same be said of the United States, in where 50% of the population believes that the 2020 election was stolen? Are we really equating the value of United States' vote with that of India's? Come on man!

India's citizenry has made her decision known in her vote. It is the United States' vote in the UN that I find suspect.

Also, while you are right that my experiences are not the same as India now, similarly, you should not ignore the outlook of Indians elsewhere that can see how other systems view it and their judgement of who will help. US is also not the same as the ‘90s where Pak was its central focus. There are millions of Indians here and many multi-millionaires running companies and influencing the view of Indians here as best we can. Please do not underestimate the goodwill this has generated. The difference is night and day between when I first came here in the mid 90s and 25 years+ hence. Indians are pretty much woven in here - not as much as London, but getting there. This is decades of another form of soft diplomacy - India is not without friends in the West.

On the contrary, India is not ignoring the outlook of NRIs. However what India is considering foremost is what is best for India's citizenry and not for the global community. Every country did this with their vote yesterday.

I am happy with the goodwill that Indians have generated for the US economy. Americans are also deeply grateful to the Indian community in the US for their immense contributions to the American economy. I am proud of what Satya Nadella, Parag Agrawal, Sundar Pichai, Indira Nooyi, Ajay Banga, Arvind Krishna, etc have achieved in the US. Kudos to them. But I am more interested in what Anand Mahindra, Mukesh Ambani, Kumar Mangalam Birla, Rajiv Bajaj, Rahul Mammen Mappillai, etc do for India. That to me is where the real grassroots change should and is happening. Goodwill is nice and goes a long way, but India's future must be decided by her citizenry and not by outlook or worldview from NRIs.

Pakistan was never the central focus of the United States in the 90s or at any point since 1947. The central focus of the United States has always been the United States itself and that is a model that India is now adopting as well. Pakistan has been repeatedly & forcefully used like a condom by the United States and India has no such desire. When Indira Gandhi imposed emergency and cancelled democracy in the 70s, someone in the US Govt then remarked, "Well India is now just another third world country that exports diseases."

US is on the way down, but it has inertia. It will be a while before it loses dominant military power - my belief is at least another two decades. History says baton has to pass on. India should take that baton and accelerate the path to its leadership. This is where common world view is useful. It is either India or China at the lead. China is in the US doghouse, which automatically makes India a better option for the US.

I have said this in the past and I will say it again. India has to learn to be selfish and only look out for her own interests. Where those interests converge, India will partner with nations. Where those interest diverge, India will not partner. But lack of partnership is not be equated with enmity or hatred. This my-way-or-the-highway attitude is no longer going to fly. The US does not have that clout. That is the reality.

India is done playing the Nehruvian game of everyone else first, India last. Today, it is India first. India is also done playing the role of a sheep. India has a rightful place among the league of nations and she will claim that mantle. To paraphrase or borrow a line from US President William Jefferson Clinton, during his 1993 Inaugural Address as President, "There is nothing wrong with India, that cannot be cured by what is right with India." And India does not need or require hand holding from the west in order to do this. When India extends her hand of friendship/partnership, that is not to be equated with the notion that India needs help. Respect is a two way and mutual street Sir.

NY Times and Washington Post columnists constant harping on Kashmir do not actually represent US understanding of India. There are millions of Indians here that create that goodwill.

1) What the millions of Indians - NRIs - can do for India is to push the GOI's interests with the US Govt.

2) What the millions of Indians - NRIs - must NOT do is to impose the US worldview onto India. That worldview has gotten stale and rotten.

I will not paint all NRIs with a broad brush, but I see a number who adopt the second strategy. Perhaps - subconsciously - to these NRIs, there is a burning desire to prove their loyalty to America. I understand and endorse the concept of gratitude, but what I cannot fathom is the concept of groveling to the point of losing one's own identity and dignity. I find that behaviour puzzling to say the least.

If any goodwill has been created by Indians in the United States, than use that goodwill to actually do some good for India. Being loyal to one's country of residence does not have to violate being grateful to one's country of birth. The very concepts of loyalty and gratefulness are taught to NRIs if they spent their formative years in India. It is ironic if that is not reciprocated to India in adulthood. But if that is not possible, then it would be best to not do anything harmful. Either do good for India or do nothing, but don't harm India's interests.

India's 1+ billion citizens have spoken in that vote. Respect that vote.

This would be in the platforms we actually own - US and EU do not fear a MAD situation with China if they armed India, quite unlike the current situation with Ukraine. With your list below, it would be Rafale’s, Apache’s, transports, ASW and heavy lifters. Any other platforms would be obvious to China, and imply a direct intervention by Western powers. This is not because the US and EU are a friend, it is because it is in their interest to not lose Asia entirely - this is fundamentally western interest. Indian diplomats should be aggressively taking advantage of this. I am simply taking the national interest argument to what is the logical conclusion I see.

Thank you for responding to my request on the rapid loss replacement discussion.

Any future Indo-China war, will not be a long drawn out affair. It will be quick and victory will be decisive for one side. It will be over in a week. The loss of life and material will be massive. Humiliation is guaranteed for the loser.

Since you mentioned Rafale, who is going to replace the IAF's 36 Rafales that will all be shot down by the Chinese horde? We have to consider the worst case scenario here. All 36 Rafales have been shot down and all 42 pilots (8 Rafales are twin seaters and 26 are single seaters) are either dead or captured. Since the Chinese will not return captured pilots to India - in the middle of a conflict - the IAF will require new pilots. Now there are certainly more than 42 Rafale pilots in the IAF. But the question still remains about who is going to supply the aircraft?

But there is an even bigger problem here. Why did 36 Rafales get shot down or blown out of the sky in the first place? Is the Rafale flawed? Were the IAF pilots not properly trained to exploit the platform? Is Chinese equipment vastly superior to the Rafale? These are some questions to ask, which cannot be entertained in the middle of a week long, full blown war.

Now lets say the French are in a generous & loving mood and provide 36 Rafales from their own stocks to replace the IAF's losses. Despite the generous and all loving mood of the French, we will have to pay to use these 36 Rafales. Also why would the French spare Rafales from their own stocks that are likely to share the same fate as the IAF's Rafales? Who in the GOI is going to consider this in the middle of a week long war?

There is yet another problem here. These French Rafales are not the ISE specific enhanced Rafales on what IAF Rafale pilots have been trained on. So there is a learning curve. A modern fighter aircraft is a highly complex machine and it is not like a three or four year old learning how to ride a bicycle. That learning curve will take time and it will take longer than a week. The surviving trained Rafale pilots have completed how much of their training syllabus on the Rafale? Again, who in the IAF is going to consider this in the middle of a week long, full blown war?

Lets assume all of this is miraculously resolved in the middle of a week long, full blown war. By the time, these Rafales arrive from where ever...the war will be over. Useless and pointless at that stage. Just expensive paperweights sitting on the tarmac and not change any outcome. An American fighter would be equally pointless as well. But if you want to have the discussion, I am game. Which platform would you like to start with? F-21, F-15EX or F-18SH? I give you the choice. It is nice to talk about the (mythical) advantages that the west has, but they will amount to having any negligible value in a conflict with China.

[KLNMurthy]

Bravo Rakesh.

Great reminder of why I stuck with BRF all these years.

[Rudradev]

Rakesh, a real tour-de-force from you sir! I couldn't have said any of that better.

[Cyrano]

Like Jassoo mithaiwala said years ago in a different context, don't confuse India's current stand of enlightened moderation for moderate enlightenment.

Great post Rakesh ji

[Rakesh]

Thank you to all.

[titash]

Thank you to all.

Excellent post Admiral-ji

I dare say you have redeemed yourself after the shameful Akula mithai betrayal episode.

I will not paint all NRIs with a broad brush, but I see a number who adopt the second strategy. Perhaps - subconsciously - to these NRIs, there is a burning desire to prove their loyalty to America. I understand and endorse the concept of gratitude, but what I cannot fathom is the concept of groveling to the point of losing one's own identity and dignity. I find that behaviour puzzling to say the least.

There's a bit more to this. I was discussing the very same point with an old friend, and arrived at the following (work in progress) PoV:

1) Historically the Indian crowd that has migrated to the US has gone with economic wellbeing/progress in mind. They have been reasonably motivated, reasonably high performers, and have benefitted significantly from access to a well diversified economy where meritocracy is still prized. The quality of life has exponentially improved from what they saw in their student days - nice house, BMW in the garage, Hawaii trip, etc.

2) The above material gains that are very important to a economic wellbeing/progress focused crowd have created a snowballing effect of perceptions..."I have arrived" ---> "I know better" ---> "I am better". Discussions over dinner and drinks are primarily over career progress, real estate investment opportunities, the finer points of scotch whisky, Trump being a horrible horrible human being, etc. It must be said that many people are different and discussion centers around kids, cultural activities, religion, badminton/cricket, etc. The main point to note is they are aligned with the US, the US PoV, the US establishment, and by extension the US deep state. The are invested in the US physically and mentally and India cannot really count on their support and sympathy when push comes to shove.

3) India's interest tends to stay uppermost only in those people for whom economic wellbeing/progress was not the prime motivator. They people had always looked for opportunities to move back to India for parents, family, religion, culture, etc. This crowd tends to support Modi's steering of the ship, is in vociferous agreement on the removal of Kashmir 370, and understands the constant Hinduphobic bias of NYT, WaPo etc. These people may have US passports, but are heart and soul for India.

This is the mix. It is what it is.

[Rakesh]

Excellent post Admiral-ji

I dare say you have redeemed yourself after the shameful Akula mithai betrayal episode.

For eternity, you guys will never forget this

There's a bit more to this. I was discussing the very same point with an old friend, and arrived at the following (work in progress) PoV:
....
This is the mix. It is what it is.

You hit the nail on the head. Well said Sirjee.

[Cain Marko]

Thank you to all.

Excellent post Admiral-ji

I dare say you have redeemed yourself after the shameful Akula mithai betrayal episode.

Whaat. You are committing blasphemy here titashji. Pliss to do mouthwash and disinfect keyboard so that such thoughts don't enter your mind again. We don't forget our values and symbols so easily on brf, and such knaalij is quickly passed on to all new generations and nunha abduls. Admiralji's mithai is every brfites 72, hope springs eternal and all, can't take that away.

[Vayutuvan]

Ask yourself this - given arbitrary wealth, where would you live. Russia, China, or somewhere else. It doesn't have to be the west. Maldives, NZ, Thailand are perfectly good answers. Then honestly ask yourself why.

I would choose India.

[Vayutuvan]

Thank you to all.

Rakesh ji, great reply to ahram ji.

[aharam]

Russia is no position to provide those coordinates because they have no interest in tracking Chinese naval vessels in the South China Sea. Why would I go to Moscow for pav-bhaji and vada pav....when I can go to my local Mumbai road stall and get it? This is a strawman argument.

The tracking point I was making is not a strawman argument. There is a current assumption that US/West will continue to provide it, because it is in their national interest - I hope to show that this is not true. The world order is changing - this was a historical moment with a choice. US has other alternatives to build out a defense network that is fully capable and excludes India - an outcome that I am against. Assuming the same level of Chinese movement intel sharing as during the period surrounding Galwan clashes is no longer a certainty. The most useful stick that the US will use is this - India US should not devolve to such a transactional relationship, because things like intelligence become US gifts subject to sanctions. That whole nonsense has to stop. The alternative source for such intelligence would have been Russia, which as we agree is largely irrelevant.

What principle - if any - has the US actually followed, other than its own self interest? That self interest has been their only guiding principle. But the same is equally true for India. What is good for the goose, is good for the gander no?

When China takes over Taiwan, it will not require any acquiescence from India. China will do whatever it feels is necessary. Any *perceived* acquiescence from India will not happen. India's silence is not to be translated as acquiescence either.

I never said that US does not follow its own self interest or that nations don't - as most here, I have read India Way, which very lucidly puts forth its view on foreign policy. The problem is the assumption that self interest is the only guiding principle. What was that old phrase, "Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing…after they have exhausted all other possibilities." In this case, they are doing what is the "right thing" per much of the world as measured in countries - if an issue can carry the world along, it is qualitatively different from purely self interest driven decision making. The upcoming UN General Assembly vote will be much more representative of that than the legacy UNSC. India should have been a veto member of UNSC since it was the committee of the victors of WWII that fought across the globe. India did - China never fought beyond its borders - my grandfather fought in that war.

My personal belief is that there is a change happening that will unfold over months and years, but EU will emerge as another united military power

One abstain vote is not going to change anything. The usual noise will be made by US analysts, Ukrainians and human right groups, but it will be back to business as usual. Already the EU nations that have sanctioned Russia are asking for exceptions and exclusions. The hypocrisy is amazing.

This is not true in my humble opinion. This is an event that has galvanized the West.

There is really nothing of any tangible value that India could have negotiated from the United States in a 12th hour UN vote. Anything of meaningful value would take months to negotiate and hash out. Not possible Sir, just not possible. The course of action you are suggesting that India should have taken would just not occur in the timeframe that was available.

I agree with you here on the timeline to hash it out - it is months longer. On the other hand, a simple understanding would have done - it is 1 page with only broad outlines. Then the US/West gets to show whether it will hold its understandings - their national interest is in raising India, and they are trying. This is the part that keeps getting missed - the West is not the enemy and neither do they view India as such. They recognize the nonsense of supporting Pak, which played the same national interest balancing act, which then forced them against US interest. That's what made them useless - Americans are very simple by typical Indian analysis.

However if Xi decides to invade Taiwan first and the US (just like they did in Afghanistan and now Ukraine) sits by and watches the tamasha, then it is to be expected by India that the United States is indeed an unreliable ally and India is all on her own.

Here is my 2 paise. There is little chance that the US and EU now will not intervene in a Taiwan conflict. And China is no dummy. An invasion in the near term is off the cards - they will be hammered by everyone, economically and militarily. Russia is much better at playing the nuclear threshold game with decades more practice than China - and they are having a difficult time with getting anyone to believe their escalation ladder. Taiwan would be conventional war under nuclear overhang, and I am not too sure China will succeed, which then focuses its attention on India.

Goodwill is nice and goes a long way, but India's future must be decided by her citizenry and not by outlook or worldview from NRIs.

Well put. And I fully agree - India's future should absolutely be determined by her citizenry as should every other county's future wouldn't you say. I am simply a friend trying to help that future, for it is my land of birth and values.

I have said this in the past and I will say it again. India has to learn to be selfish and only look out for her own interests. Where those interests converge, India will partner with nations. Where those interest diverge, India will not partner. But lack of partnership is not be equated with enmity or hatred. This my-way-or-the-highway attitude is no longer going to fly. The US does not have that clout. That is the reality.

India is done playing the Nehruvian game of everyone else first, India last. ... Respect is a two way and mutual street Sir.

Sir, fostering convergences and managing divergences works for a class of issues, and these are broadly transactional in nature and run by the government and its national interest. NSG membership is a great example of this. In my belief there is a second class of problems, where basic principles of operation of nation states are aligned. In such problems, nations vote against national interest and in support of their principles. The current event of the war in Ukraine is such. Russia has a casus belli right to attack, because NATO has come too close to its borders and NATO is fundamentally a military anti-Russia alliance. That said, the result cannot be forced by war anymore, and if that happens, citizens protest. In any democracy, citizen sentiment trumps everything else. As example I offer, many EU nations that will suffer and Germany quite a bit with heating fuel loss - it is not in their national interest. It is in the interest of their citizenry.

1) What the millions of Indians - NRIs - can do for India is to push the GOI's interests with the US Govt.

2) What the millions of Indians - NRIs - must NOT do is to impose the US worldview onto India. That worldview has gotten stale and rotten.

A few pages ago, I was told I was being patronizing. And looking through the examples, it certainly appears so, and I apologize. In my defense, I was told that I would not fight even if the Gita was read to me, and many other assumptions of what my motive was. Hopefully, my posts from a decade ago would argue that is not the case. That said, the above sounds a lot like Hitopadesh for NRIs and equally patronizing wouldn't you say.

I am not trying to impose any worldview, merely pointing out how things are viewed differently. As example, I offer the Jewish community in the US. They are in my humble opinion, the closest to Indians in terms of arguing things logically and being confrontational about it. They look out for Israel's interest very well and that is not because they blindly support Israeli actions. As an example, I offer Trump. It is in India's national interest for Trump to be the President - Democrats have always sucked in realpolitik. As an American, Trump is a genuine disaster - his ability to whip up crowds not withstanding. He single handedly made the US a laughing stock, he lies constantly and his inability to build and retain a competent executive team is a complete failure. This is dharam sankat wouldn't you say.

The US is done with Bush's my way or the highway, Trump notwithstanding. It is operating in a multi-polar world. In the current conflict, it spent effort building worldwide consensus. The upcoming general assembly will likely show that.

Any future Indo-China war, will not be a long drawn out affair. It will be quick and victory will be decisive for one side. It will be over in a week. The loss of life and material will be massive. Humiliation is guaranteed for the loser.

Since you mentioned Rafale, who is going to replace the IAF's 36 Rafales that will all be shot down by the Chinese horde? We have to consider the worst case scenario here. All 36 Rafales have been shot down and all 42 pilots (8 Rafales are twin seaters and 26 are single seaters) are either dead or captured. Since the Chinese will not return captured pilots to India - in the middle of a conflict - the IAF will require new pilots. Now there are certainly more than 42 Rafale pilots in the IAF. But the question still remains about who is going to supply the aircraft?

Let's start with the first assumption - it is a short war. I question that. India is not going to capitulate just because aircraft got shot down in a week. You underestimate Indian military will Sir, and its ability to fight a ground war - 1962 never became a ground war. It will merely be considered a setback - this is not 1962. China can choose to declare a unilateral ceasefire when she thinks she is ahead, it will have no bearing on the Indian response to the ceasefire. I can easier see China capitulating due to inability to hold high altitude peaks and no experience with actual mountain warfare with India, but the converse is a long drawn out affair with Chinese supply lines over the himalayas.

That does not mean there won't be reverses. The integration complexity you mention above is type training - I am familiar with it. Unless method has changed, and I fully acknowledge that I do not know this as it happens currently, IAF training would start with the base model training prior to country specific module installation - this was our process and we were type trained on many models. The base model training jump starts the program before the India specific aircraft is ready - more hours that actually count. The differences are typically in A2G/AA radar modes, RWR, actual comms tech (which is invisible since you dial the freq). If I am not mistaken, IAF is already trained on it and the differences are within a few days of retraining. Weapons loadout may change, but as a strike package, there is little loss of utility. And to top it all, you are underestimating IAF pilots sir - they are a lot smarter at rapid decision making than many western equivalents that operate by protocol. This is really few days work. As example, I offer current EU transfer of MIG 29's and SU25s that started hours ago. These are Warsaw pact versions from Poland, Romania, Hungary most likely and are a different type from the Soviet internal versions. That said, the Ukrainian pilots will be able to rapidly make use of the platforms.

It won't be that all 36 Rafale's are lost - but realistically, some would be and that reduces coverage. If we assume all 36 are lost, and they represent the best of our long range reach, them the MKIs are already done. This is apocryphal and still hopefully does not mean loss of country. There is much more fight in India. There is a colonial mindset that says India lost to the British. It does not represent history - merely a result of divide and rule where each Indian kingdom looked out for only its interest. India was indeed invaded many times - failures which were numerous, but the invaders stayed behind. In my view, India is the land of the successful invaders - a country with a many millenia history, and has enough genetic advantages in all its terrain and a people that can fight. It is not easy to overcome India in an all out battle for literally anyone. On land, India was never a push over and now as a country that is truly unified, even less so. There is no reason to yield in a week and the more friends we have helping the better.

This is my last para. I am not trying to pontificate, but if this is felt as so, I will stop. I am merely trying to discuss in what I see as a discussion board that I have affinity with. In the modern forum discussion era, no one knows who is on the other side of the keyboard and thus there is a tendency to "bucketize" people into a multiple solution matrix. If we were having this conversation face to face, I believe there wouldn't the same presumptions after the first conversation.

Cheers
Aharam