Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 26 Feb 2022 16:45

Baikul wrote:Meanwhile just as a lighter aside (or maybe not given how serious the situation is), there is this too:

https://www.indiatoday.in/amp/world/sto ... 2022-02-18

I’m shaking my head…. Hope he’s ok.

May be he has a blondie Uki Gay-ral Fraand.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 26 Feb 2022 17:19

Kati wrote:
Baikul wrote:Meanwhile just as a lighter aside (or maybe not given how serious the situation is), there is this too:

https://www.indiatoday.in/amp/world/sto ... 2022-02-18

I’m shaking my head…. Hope he’s ok.
May be he has a blondie Uki Gay-ral Fraand.

cancel the p@$$p0rt and let him r0t there

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 26 Feb 2022 17:32

Taiwan is the one that should be shivering right now! The West led Ukraine up the garden path, and when push came to shove, hightailed out of there. Forget the puny sactions.

Now think of Taiwan. Will US come to its aid? Will US even impose sanctions on China given its huge dependency on China?

The only winner here is China - it now knows that it can do what it wants with Taiwan and no one will interfere. Just like they are slowly assimilating Hong Kong after promising it would be autonomous, with no repercussions.

sum · Post by **sum** » 26 Feb 2022 18:15

^^ +100

Can’t imagine the level of fear in Taiwan top circles

I think they must be seeing the writing on the wall

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 26 Feb 2022 18:23

vijaykarthik wrote:
Deans wrote:
Not really. There was a steady rise in ceasefire violations (as measured by OCSE monitors) since Jan. Mostly from the Ukrainian side. Putin was being provoked by the Ukrainians, who thought NATO would deter him from acting.
I look at it a bit more realistically, perhaps. I consider it as par course when there is some skirmish and ceasefire violation in border / disputed areas. Happens most times in our LoC too. Wont call that a particularly provocative under the circs.

From The OSCE, in 14 months to mid Oct 2021

"Following agreement reached at the meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) on 22 July
2020 regarding Measures to strengthen the ceasefire, from 00:01 on 27 July 2020 until the end
of the reporting period, the SMM has recorded at least 64,923 ceasefire violations in both
Donetsk and Luhansk regions (including 18,060 explosions, 13,091 projectiles in flight,
288 muzzle flashes, 263 illumination flares and at least 33,221 bursts and shots)."

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 26 Feb 2022 18:24

If Putin can be defeated in his backyard that is Ukr, Taiwan will become impossible for China. Slow progress of Ru and massive casualities available from SM / cnn propaganda indicates Ru will have to turn Kieve into rubble with massive human costs inviting intl outcry. Longer Ru takes more difficult it would be for them . Also it looks like Ukr is getting massive help. In terms of satellite imagery, intel, even ground operators. There also are reports of US, UK ex army fighting Ukr along side.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 26 Feb 2022 18:39

in sharp contrast to what the Modi govt is doing for the so called "stranded" Indians who refused to heed the many directives issued by the GoI to leave ukraine

via opindia

Screengrab of the travel advisory by US embassy in Ukraine

LakshmanPST · Post by **LakshmanPST** » 26 Feb 2022 18:43

Regarding India's abstenance in UN vote against Russia, we just need to note a simple point--->
1) It would have been wrong to abstain in this UN vote had Ukraine been a totally neutral country invaded all of a sudden by Russia...
2) But current Ukraine war is in reality a power game between Russia and NATO... And Ukraine leadership willingly chose to take part in this game against Russia and is facing the consequences... India rightly understands this and we do not want to take sides in this...

John · Post by **John** » 26 Feb 2022 18:44

IndraD wrote:If Putin can be defeated in his backyard that is Ukr, Taiwan will become impossible for China. Slow progress of Ru and massive casualities available from SM / cnn propaganda indicates Ru will have to turn Kieve into rubble with massive human costs inviting intl outcry. Longer Ru takes more difficult it would be for them . Also it looks like Ukr is getting massive help. In terms of satellite imagery, intel, even ground operators. There also are reports of US, UK ex army fighting Ukr along side.

On your latter point there may few foreign fighters in Ukraine but definitely not anything more than few dozen based on what I can piece together unless you have some inside Intel.

Part of reason is no one expected this to escalate, yes that is surprising inspite of all US Intel of an invasion no one in Ukraine thought they will invade. So as a result no one really went to Ukraine to fight, if this drags you might see more Eastern Europeans (ex mil) leaving their country to fight the Russians. Which is probably bigger threat for Russia than US/UK citizens.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 26 Feb 2022 18:54

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 26 Feb 2022 18:56

ManuJ wrote:India needs to be on the right side of history, staying ahead of the curve.
Putin is history, or will be soon. He is not going to recover from this debacle - it's the beginning of his end.

India needs to start planning for a post-Putin Russia and to start cultivating potential future leaders.
Publicly, while reiterating its status as a true friend and well-wisher of Russia with long-lasting and historic ties, it needs to start distancing itself from Putin.

Western propaganda machine has been incessantly braying about Putin-putin-Putin. Hardly ever Russia-Russia which is closer to reality.

If another Russian leader (let’s say even Navalny) comes to power, making it through the Russian political process, how likely is it that he / she would depart from core Russian geopolitical & security concerns and tolerate NATO in Ukraine?

(Recall what happened with Aung San Suu Kyi. Just she was oppressed & imprisoned by the Tatmadaw, West assumed she was somehow their munna, to the exclusion of Burmese concerns. She ended up acting for Burma and not for the West, and there was no end of rona-dhona by the latter and deification turned to demonization overnight)

Seems like Western geopolitical thought is stuck in 19th century feudal & colonial universe where individual kings / political personalities were everything.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 26 Feb 2022 18:57

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 26 Feb 2022 19:00

if this drags you might see more Eastern Europeans (ex mil) leaving their country to fight the Russians

Before we get to distinguished Eastern European ex-mil types fighting

I want to know what happened to those those tough-looking UKie grandmothers in designer clothing flashing military weapons on the front page of BeeBeeShe or gardian?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 26 Feb 2022 19:02

John wrote:
IndraD wrote:If Putin can be defeated in his backyard that is Ukr, Taiwan will become impossible for China. Slow progress of Ru and massive casualities available from SM / cnn propaganda indicates Ru will have to turn Kieve into rubble with massive human costs inviting intl outcry. Longer Ru takes more difficult it would be for them . Also it looks like Ukr is getting massive help. In terms of satellite imagery, intel, even ground operators. There also are reports of US, UK ex army fighting Ukr along side.
On your latter point there may few foreign fighters in Ukraine but definitely not anything more than few dozen based on what I can piece together unless you have some inside Intel.

Part of reason is no one expected this to escalate, yes that is surprising inspite of all US Intel of an invasion no one in Ukraine thought they will invade. So as a result no one really went to Ukraine to fight, if this drags you might see more Eastern Europeans (ex mil) leaving their country to fight the Russians. Which is probably bigger threat for Russia than US/UK citizens.

many tightey whitey thinktankis and other imagined, deluded and self appointed "security" experts are talking of "insurgency" against putin

there is a large jehadi populace in every country in the west.

it is a small matter for putin to arrange a disproportionate payback

afghanistan and europe are very different jang ka maidans and putin will not allow mother russia to be caught out a second time

just saying onlee.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 26 Feb 2022 19:03

chanakyaa wrote:
if this drags you might see more Eastern Europeans (ex mil) leaving their country to fight the Russians
Before we get to distinguished Eastern European ex-mil types fighting I want to know what happened to those those tough-looking UKie grandmothers in designer clothing flashing military weapons on the front page of BeeBeeShe or gardian?
[img]https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/s ... w=1488[img]

dadi is complete with trigger discipline and all onlee

kit · Post by **kit** » 26 Feb 2022 19:05

Looks like the Polish with the americans are putting pressure on Belarus !!

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 26 Feb 2022 19:08

ramana wrote:The fact Putin acted means they want to survive.
Any way that's in the future.

Many of us know Russians. I wouldn’t underestimate the vital spirit or jeeva shakti of that culture. Population decline or not, they will either survive or go down fighting.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 26 Feb 2022 19:13

chetak wrote:
Kati wrote:
May be he has a blondie Uki Gay-ral Fraand.
cancel the p@$$p0rt and let him r0t there

He is not fighting in a jihad against India. Probably just looking for “adventure.”

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 26 Feb 2022 19:28

@aharam

(To avoid long unreadable posts when quoting chunks, please use the full-feature editor and the quote button and do some cutnpaste. And check using the preview button.)

It seems that after some back & forth you landed on your point that India should have extracted its pound of flesh from the US in exchange for a yes vote. Sorry but that was not at all clear from your original posts, smothered as they were in shared-values verbiage which came across as naïve sentimentality.

Do you know for a fact that India didn’t discuss its vote beforehand with the US, behind the scenes? And perhaps no deal could be reached, but the air was cleared? Refer to the very mild US official reaction to the Indian abstention: India has its own compulsions, and stranded students, we hope it can use its influence with Russia. Practically a verbatim echo of India’s stated position. I don’t think that comes without hard discussion & negotiation with our American strategic partners.

Is it possible that Jaishankar’s team knows what it is doing, and you are just giving gratuitous gyaan from the sidelines, based on naïve assumptions about how the game is played?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 26 Feb 2022 19:31

KLNMurthy wrote:
chetak wrote:
cancel the p@$$p0rt and let him r0t there
He is not fighting in a jihad against India. Probably just looking for “adventure.”

the Indian guys who joined the jehadis in afghanistan, syria et all, most of them did not fight against India, though a few may have.

ban one, ban all.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 26 Feb 2022 19:35

Cyrano wrote:France, in its role as leader of NATO defensive response, volunteered to position a battalion of 500 soldiers with protected vehicles in Romania ASAP - Chief of Armies Gen Burkhard on TV - France24 channel last night.

So, the fighting has shifted to Romania already?

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 26 Feb 2022 19:40

https://understandingwar.org/background ... t-update-8

The Understanding war website gives the best analysis of what is happening. I find it professionally presented and meant for a niche audience
such as this forum.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 26 Feb 2022 19:40

chetak wrote:
KLNMurthy wrote: He is not fighting in a jihad against India. Probably just looking for “adventure.”
the Indian guys who joined the jehadis in afghanistan, syria et all, most of them did not fight against India, though a few may have.

ban one, ban all.

Well, I consider any jihad to be anti-India.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 26 Feb 2022 19:41

chetak wrote:
KLNMurthy wrote: He is not fighting in a jihad against India. Probably just looking for “adventure.”
the Indian guys who joined the jehadis in afghanistan, syria et all, most of them did not fight against India, though a few may have.

ban one, ban all.

Disagree. He has broken no Indian law or been charged with any crime in a country we have an extradition treaty with, so why should he forfeit his passport? Stupidity is not a crime.

Those who fight for jihad anywhere are a different breed altogether. They have mortgaged their humanity at the fetid altar of a foul and cancerous doctrine. They are no longer human, but rabid animals, and deserve only to be culled.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 26 Feb 2022 19:41

The secondary aim of the conflict for US/UK seems to be to create a rift between India and Russia by gaslighting Indians on how being a democracy we are not supporting a fellow democratic country, rule based order yada yada yada.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 26 Feb 2022 19:45

It is interesting to note that power, water, food and fuel have not been cut in Ukraine. It also appears, AFAIK, internet and mobile communications are intact for the most part. Yes, there have been runs at petrol pumps and grocery stores creating shortages, but overall that hasn't been too disrupted in the sense it has created a huge humanitarian crisis. The Russian attack seems to be self-throttled, perhaps knowing the US and other countries may lure them into a trap. In Poland, US & NATO surveillance and EW aircraft are operating near the Ukrainian border and also over the Black Sea.

John · Post by **John** » 26 Feb 2022 19:46

Russians aren’t doing very good job protecting the supply lines and simply focused on Kyiv. Videos of burnt out Russian supply tracks littering the road ways is a stunner, the units inside are now stuck with dwindling fuel (&have to conserve might explain why you so many simply parked in Ukr highways waiting it out) longer it drags worse that gets.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 26 Feb 2022 19:46

According to western sources
- Roos is losing 3000 soldiers a day.
- Ghost of kyiv knocked down 6 Roosi jets. No modern BVRs or radars with Ukraine MiGs but yay!!
- Entire convoys of Russia vehicles knocked out.
- war is costing Roos 20 billion dollars a day.
- Russians don't hold any airport outside Kyiv.
- ~~Baghdad Bob 2.0~~ President Volodymyr Jelenski is moving street to street in Kyiv rallying resistance forces.
The attempts at propaganda are hilarious.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 26 Feb 2022 19:52

I was watching the Sham Sharma show on you tube. In that it was stated that Russia has expressed openness for talks with Ukraine over disarmament and NATO membership.

This is quite consistent with what I understand Russian war aims to be. If Ukraine agrees to it. War is over.

John · Post by **John** » 26 Feb 2022 19:57

CNN: US lobbyists rush to cut ties with lucrative Russian contracts.

LakshmanPST · Post by **LakshmanPST** » 26 Feb 2022 20:01

There is huge pro-Ukraine propaganda going on in Twitter... Don't know what to believe and what not to believe... Mix of truth and lies...
Coming to pro-Russian handles, I found very few and they do have some propaganda... This pro-Russian handle is giving somewhat realistic info though (ignore cheesy name)---> https://twitter.com/RWApodcast?t=Gfftwd ... N1eXQ&s=09...

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 26 Feb 2022 20:02

Russia appreciates India’s 'independent and balanced position' at UNSC
Russian Embassy in India tweeted: "Highly appreciate India’s independent and balanced position at the voting in the UNSC on February 25, 2022. In the spirit of the special and privileged strategic partnership Russia is committed to maintain close dialogue with India on the situation around Ukraine."

uddu · Post by **uddu** » 26 Feb 2022 20:04

The full video is here

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 26 Feb 2022 20:15

Rudradev wrote:
chetak wrote:
the Indian guys who joined the jehadis in afghanistan, syria et all, most of them did not fight against India, though a few may have.

ban one, ban all.
Disagree. He has broken no Indian law or been charged with any crime in a country we have an extradition treaty with, so why should he forfeit his passport? Stupidity is not a crime.

Those who fight for jihad anywhere are a different breed altogether. They have mortgaged their humanity at the fetid altar of a foul and cancerous doctrine. They are no longer human, but rabid animals, and deserve only to be culled.

the four "wives" from KER who went with their traitorous jehadi spouses to afghanistan are not being allowed back into India even after the said spouses have been halaled per existing GoI policy

the same is being done in many other countries too when their citizens fight abroad for some joker of a country or terrorist outfit.

joining some irregular militia in ukraine is not acceptable to the GoI as a matter of policy onlee

our debating the right or wrong of it is pointless.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 26 Feb 2022 20:17

LakshmanPST wrote:There is huge pro-Ukraine propaganda going on in Twitter

+1001
Entire west media cabal , twitter, FB has become rudali pro Ukr pro West Bhajan mandali including Republic, Wion etc
kindly share handles from russian side as well!
RT NEws
TASS

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 26 Feb 2022 20:18

The "wives" are products of that same ideology, and will only breed dozens of similarly rabid offspring in India if allowed to return. The case for removing them is clear.

Fighting for an irregular militia that is orthogonal to any anti-India doctrine is not GOI's problem. Nor is there any law against it unless the host country charges him with a crime.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 26 Feb 2022 20:18

So apparently Ukrainians are claiming to have shot down two Il 76 full of Russian airborne troops. Social media is full of Russians taking a stroll down Ukrainian streets but news such as these are always "reliable sources say" or "western intelligence confirmed".

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 26 Feb 2022 20:19

IndraD wrote:Russia appreciates India’s 'independent and balanced position' at UNSC
Russian Embassy in India tweeted: "Highly appreciate India’s independent and balanced position at the voting in the UNSC on February 25, 2022. In the spirit of the special and privileged strategic partnership Russia is committed to maintain close dialogue with India on the situation around Ukraine."

It should also be adequately clear to the Russians that the Indian delegate basically said the same thing in the resolution (minus maybe the finger-pointing towards Russia) and with no clear reasoning said that India would abstain. Which means that we want the cessation of hostilities but we are abstaining only as a favour to the Russians.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 26 Feb 2022 20:20

IndraD wrote:
LakshmanPST wrote:There is huge pro-Ukraine propaganda going on in Twitter
+1001
Entire west media cabal , twitter, FB has become rudali pro Ukr pro West Bhajan mandali including Republic, Wion etc
kindly share handles from russian side as well!
RT NEws
TASS

twitter is pushing this per the requirements of the ameriki deep state.

imagine what will happen during India's gen election in 2024

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 26 Feb 2022 20:22

John wrote:
Raja wrote:I am not sure why some people are reading a great Russian victory after 3 days. This is not going to be decided in days, weeks or maybe even few years. Whether or not this was a success for Russia will be decided over many years.
Kremlin advisor Andrey Kortunov did few interviews with media he told BBC Kremlin expected the conflict to end in 2 weeks and currently surprised by reaction in Ukraine to Russian forces.

I believe there was some expectation of local uprising in other parts of Ukraine against Kyiv and that didn’t quite materialize.

It will definitely happen - the resistance. Coup de main is Kyiv. So Coup de resistance will be done.

Reports of IL-76 downed with 400 paratroopers by Ukies. Flew into a package of Uk fighters (am surprised that they still have fighters though. Would have imagined them to have got bombed by now). Tells us 2 things -
a. Russia isnt bothered about body bags / troops dying. At least not yet. Steadfastly moving through to Kyiv.
b. Its going to be a difficult fight.

I just wonder how NATO troops will have behaved once they lost 400 paras in a transport heli loss. Wow. Will that have led to mission abort?