Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 26 Feb 2022 21:54

rkirankr wrote:https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/ ... 5521362946 throwing the towel?

Neutral status and neutered status are a tad different. Russia is neutering right now and I dont think being neutral is going to cut it. They might look for access to Black Sea, land bridge to Crimea and other things that need to get sorted. One doesn't keep doing this every 4 years once. All perceived wrongs will mostly be corrected.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 26 Feb 2022 21:58

chetak wrote:suddenly these guys are sounding reasonable onlee

have they forgotten this

Who cares if one of our leaders was cursed by theirs, 50 years ago. As long as we can get our pound of flesh let them curse whoever they want.

John · Post by **John** » 26 Feb 2022 22:00

Ambar wrote:
rkirankr wrote:https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/ ... 5521362946 throwing the towel?
Nothing short of Zelenskyy and his cabinet resigning and replaced by a govt which is pro-Russia will end this war.

It’s false check the timing he posted it 8 hrs ago.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 26 Feb 2022 22:03

But mandating that 18-60 cant flee and asking them to defend is a sign of things going bad. Untrained civvies doing this is eq to cannon fodder.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 26 Feb 2022 22:08

And oh, SWIFT - it goes both ways. Looks like a lot of EU capitals are hesitant to block Rus out of SWIFT as it means they cant get their money back either.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2022 22:13

The Indian abstain in UNSC has rattled US.
Also not the P8I cancel
Predators cancel

India is reducing exposure to CAATSA threats.
Soon the F-18 will also be rejected.

Anglo-Saxon foreign policy has been 'carrot and stick' in most cases in reverse order.

KS garu once said the US has Delilah policy versus Samson policy.

The US sleeps with allies to neuter them.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2022 22:15

Can someone summarize Indian interests in the Ukraine crisis?

The Ambassador and Vidur have given a good summary but it's good to put the words together for easy dissemination.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 26 Feb 2022 22:15

kit wrote:People on telegram can follow Intel Slava Z , updates by the minute !!

Most of UK air defence is gone., remember Motor Sich at Zaporizhzhya, Ukraine?., that will be likely taken over today

Any suggestions re Taiwan situation?

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 26 Feb 2022 22:16

I still don't see this ending well to Russia, this can end up up like the Winter war. The Army that defended Stalingrad and got a costly victory in Berlin now is being put to Urban warfare.

This invasion had no fait accompli and so far Russia has not been able to cut electricity disable Ukraine defences etc. The longer this goes on worse for the Russians, sure Ukraine is bigger than Iraq. Russia army is also too small compared to say WW2 Red army.

I am afraid this will only lead to Putin ouster , and weakening f Russia. There is no real justification for putting the Ukrainian population through this. No one in the West can support Russia now.

Chinese are happy as they see as knocking Russia out as a bigger power than them.

The Russians need to pull a rabbit out of a hat for them to have comprehensive military victory, and then be generous with a withdrawal citing all they wanted is NATO neutrality. Any occupation of Ukraine is not going to go well, Ukrainians are hostile to them.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 26 Feb 2022 22:16

chetak wrote:
vijaykarthik wrote:
Taiwan is different. It has a treaty with US. Ofcourse its in the strategic ambiguity terrain. But its definitely not Ukraine and there will be blow back there.
it is also non white

the amerikis will weasel out of it.

The amreekis are patrolling the strait as we speak.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2022 22:17

vijaykarthik wrote:But mandating that 18-60 cant flee and asking them to defend is a sign of things going bad. Untrained civvies doing this is eq to cannon fodder.

In the Indian students' evacuation flights, we see mostly girls.
Are boy students being detained?
Also quite despicable for Ukraine to threaten countries wrt students.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 26 Feb 2022 22:18

If its true that Ukraine is purposefully holding Indian students hostage and making it difficult for India to evacuate them then GoI must take steps in future to de-recognize all university degrees from Ukraine. In my opinion it is madness anyways for letting students who don't qualify for medical courses in India to travel to Ukraine/Bangladesh/Pakistan(yes, Pakistan etc. get a sasta medical degree, clear a licensing exam and begin practicing here. US does not recognize medical degrees from most countries, and where it does it still mandates USMLE and residency program before letting them work.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 26 Feb 2022 22:21

Jarita wrote:
chetak wrote:
it is also non white

the amerikis will weasel out of it.
The amreekis are patrolling the strait as we speak.

empty dramatics and useless theatrics onlee

nam · Post by **nam** » 26 Feb 2022 22:24

Putin would want a end game out of this adventure and if possible we should try to get a ceasefire going. GoI knows that isolating Russia would push them completely in to the Chini camp.

India would like to give then a way out. Putin would like to get hold of the capital before the ceasefire.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2022 22:26

So nam why is this difficult to understand for BRF members with long years on the Forum?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 26 Feb 2022 22:50

the sun will never rise on this bleddy empire again onlee

there is a shooting war on and the britshit chief spy is focused on LGBT+ rights

so, is this a new way of sending top secret messages to his "colorful saff" or some secret code towards/against the Russian invasion

and their general called the taliban “country boys” in a similar vein.

did these guys really build the grand colonial empire that they claim that they once had

Richard Moore@ChiefMI6
With the tragedy and destruction unfolding so distressingly in Ukraine, we should remember the values and hard won freedoms that distinguish us from Putin, none more than LGBT+ rights.
So let’s resume our series of tweets to mark #LGBTHM2022
12:39 am · 26 Feb 2022

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 26 Feb 2022 22:54

Possibilities:

where I mean Russia - I mean Russ troops.

Kyiv - Russia has definitely entered Kiev. But I reckon it will be sp forces and recon troops. The main massing of troops will join in later. US might be right in assuming that it will fall in a couple days. We will need to see how it goes.

Kharkiv - no news yet. But Russia did enter and this will be interesting as to how it goes. Urban warfare? Has it started or is it in wait and watch mode for Kyiv to be decided? Morale is a big deal and if Kyiv falls, Kharkiv can be obtained easily? (2nd largest city)

Melitopol - taken. Russian flag has risen.

Territorial defense forces - Uk has provided arms and guns to civvies. Cannon fodder (tech term). Also informing civvies on how to prep Molotov cocktails. So Kiev is where coup de resistance is going to happen most likely.

Logistics: airports / runways cratered. I think Kiev's airport wasnt damaged though. Perhaps for Russian supply lines to not get broken / to be used by Russians later ? I would imagine so. Bridges and many roads are cratered and broken. Trains are still running. A bit odd though a few trains were also blown up per reports.

Interesting that Zelenski was offered to be evacuated by US. Wonder how that will work (relay to Russia that they are coming in to ship Z out? I would think so just to ensure NATO troop doesn't get fired at.

I do remember that Kiev was planning to delete / transfer all sensitive docs / data outside Kiev and that should have happened a couple days back mostly. I wonder if govt BCP has got debated and done. Z has a couple hours to 2 days mostly and will be difficult to determine all that later.

Germany, Poland and Baltics have mentioned that they will provide ammo. should be interesting to see logistics to move them to the front. Wonder if there is going to be a defense buildup in deeper W Ukraine like Kyiv / Lutsk etc. Not sure if Putin plans to go so deep but that is the place where the fountain of western influence is. If he really means de-Nazifying, it needs to go to the deeper areas too. Might dependent on how Kiev / Kharkiv goes.

kit · Post by **kit** » 26 Feb 2022 22:58

Aditya_V wrote:I still don't see this ending well to Russia, this can end up up like the Winter war. The Army that defended Stalingrad and got a costly victory in Berlin now is being put to Urban warfare.

This invasion had no fait accompli and so far Russia has not been able to cut electricity disable Ukraine defences etc. The longer this goes on worse for the Russians, sure Ukraine is bigger than Iraq. Russia army is also too small compared to say WW2 Red army.

I am afraid this will only lead to Putin ouster , and weakening f Russia. There is no real justification for putting the Ukrainian population through this. No one in the West can support Russia now.

Chinese are happy as they see as knocking Russia out as a bigger power than them.

The Russians need to pull a rabbit out of a hat for them to have comprehensive military victory, and then be generous with a withdrawal citing all they wanted is NATO neutrality. Any occupation of Ukraine is not going to go well, Ukrainians are hostile to them.

I dont think the regular RA is going to maintain / prosecute urban warfare once the main cities are taken

RA has been specific in taking out power stations that are relevant

I do think there is a game plan for UK, and its not the vanilla "occupation" of ukraine

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 26 Feb 2022 22:59

vijaykarthik wrote:Possibilities:

where I mean Russia - I mean Russ troops.

Kyiv - Russia has definitely entered Kiev. But I reckon it will be sp forces and recon troops. The main massing of troops will join in later. US might be right in assuming that it will fall in a couple days. We will need to see how it goes.

Kharkiv - no news yet. But Russia did enter and this will be interesting as to how it goes. Urban warfare? Has it started or is it in wait and watch mode for Kyiv to be decided? Morale is a big deal and if Kyiv falls, Kharkiv can be obtained easily? (2nd largest city)

Melitopol - taken. Russian flag has risen.

Territorial defense forces - Uk has provided arms and guns to civvies. Cannon fodder (tech term). Also informing civvies on how to prep Molotov cocktails. So Kiev is where coup de resistance is going to happen most likely.

Logistics: airports / runways cratered. I think Kiev's airport wasnt damaged though. Perhaps for Russian supply lines to not get broken / to be used by Russians later ? I would imagine so. Bridges and many roads are cratered and broken. Trains are still running. A bit odd though a few trains were also blown up per reports.

Interesting that Zelenski was offered to be evacuated by US. Wonder how that will work (relay to Russia that they are coming in to ship Z out? I would think so just to ensure NATO troop doesn't get fired at.

I do remember that Kiev was planning to delete / transfer all sensitive docs / data outside Kiev and that should have happened a couple days back mostly. I wonder if govt BCP has got debated and done. Z has a couple hours to 2 days mostly and will be difficult to determine all that later.

Germany, Poland and Baltics have mentioned that they will provide ammo. should be interesting to see logistics to move them to the front. Wonder if there is going to be a defense buildup in deeper W Ukraine like Kyiv / Lutsk etc. Not sure if Putin plans to go so deep but that is the place where the fountain of western influence is. If he really means de-Nazifying, it needs to go to the deeper areas too. Might dependent on how Kiev / Kharkiv goes.

if the goras are going to fight, then it will be on ukrainian territory.

putin had better wrap this up fast or show them the "bum" like the pakis and calling it the "nuclear flashpoint"

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 26 Feb 2022 23:02

Aditya_V wrote: This invasion had no fait accompli and so far Russia has not been able to cut electricity disable Ukraine defences etc. The longer this goes on worse for the Russians, sure Ukraine is bigger than Iraq. Russia army is also too small compared to say WW2 Red army.

I am afraid this will only lead to Putin ouster , and weakening f Russia. There is no real justification for putting the Ukrainian population through this. No one in the West can support Russia now.

Chinese are happy as they see as knocking Russia out as a bigger power than them.

The Russians need to pull a rabbit out of a hat for them to have comprehensive military victory, and then be generous with a withdrawal citing all they wanted is NATO neutrality. Any occupation of Ukraine is not going to go well, Ukrainians are hostile to them.

This is also because they will have got precise info from NATO and had time to decouple elec lines. Else, they might have got fried in the first place when the first few take outs happened on Thursday.

Which makes this a lot more queer. This is mostly the first war in about 70 years where the signalling was done much ahead and Russia NEVER had the advantage of surprise. Does take me back to ab initio topic - what is the damned war goal (and why now and what was the trigger).

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 26 Feb 2022 23:03

And while on this topic, Uk will be getting excellent intel and OSINT / HUMINT / ELINT from NATO and 5 eyes. No doubt about it.

John · Post by **John** » 26 Feb 2022 23:14

Ukranians seen operating with NLAW looks like a couple Russian T-84s have been knocked out. First time we are seeing that being used I know Russian captured a few from Ukranian troops at start of the conflict.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/statu ... qxanxIjVKA

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 26 Feb 2022 23:15

Zelensky has replaced Jacinda Arden as the darling of Twitterati intellectuals. I fear that this will cause the invaders to increase the firepower causing a lot more damage to civilians

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 26 Feb 2022 23:18

Right now there is hardly any info coming out of Ukraine. Doubt there is proper electricity or connectivity. Soon russkis will begin to squeeze harder.

They DON'T need to occupy the city to bring it to it's knees. They can fully control the situation without with much firepower and urban firefights. Once they have control over key infra like power stations, entry points, and water and food supply, they can patiently wait it out if they wish.

How the heck will this city of 3 million get it's supplies?

The countryside seems completely under Russian control.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 26 Feb 2022 23:19

ramana wrote:
vijaykarthik wrote:But mandating that 18-60 cant flee and asking them to defend is a sign of things going bad. Untrained civvies doing this is eq to cannon fodder.
In the Indian students' evacuation flights, we see mostly girls.
Are boy students being detained?
Also quite despicable for Ukraine to threaten countries wrt students.

Seeing a decent mix of boys also here: https://twitter.com/i/events/1497513633328218114

LakshmanPST · Post by **LakshmanPST** » 26 Feb 2022 23:49

Ukraine Govt. is playing a dirty gamble...
Arming civilians is nuts...
Govts. should make it their priority to protect civilians... Arming them instead will put their lives at risk...
Now, we're seeing other issues coming up... No one knows how many criminals took the arms... There are unverified reports coming of highway robberies by armed men...
And there are reports, rather rumours spread possibly by Russian side that Russian Army personnel are moving around in civil dress... This will increase cases of Ukrainians killing each other merely on suspicion...
-
Ukrainian leadership are hoping that this will turn into a full-fledged urban guriella warfare... That would be disastrous for Russia...
But in doing so, they're putting the lives of common Ukrainiabs at risk...
-
I'm ~~not~~ surprised that no Govt. or media or organization is questioning Ukrainian Govt. regarding this...
Crazy...

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 26 Feb 2022 23:56

^^ its already on. Curfew was from 10PM earlier. Its moved to 5PM when sun sets. Anyone who sets out on a stroll can be deemed a Russian and shot at.

Anything that needs to be done outside as Uk citizens is before 5PM in Kiev. Else, be prepared to get shot.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 27 Feb 2022 00:06

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/26-februa ... -ukrainian

Interactive osint map

John · Post by **John** » 27 Feb 2022 00:14

Cain Marko wrote:Right now there is hardly any info coming out of Ukraine. Doubt there is proper electricity or connectivity. Soon russkis will begin to squeeze harder.

They DON'T need to occupy the city to bring it to it's knees. They can fully control the situation without with much firepower and urban firefights. Once they have control over key infra like power stations, entry points, and water and food supply, they can patiently wait it out if they wish.

How the heck will this city of 3 million get it's supplies?

The countryside seems completely under Russian control.

Russians don’t control that much of countryside outside of the major border areas see the map posted above. Front lines are very fluid as well.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 27 Feb 2022 00:19

with this amount of materiel and men, there is going to be a costly phase of maintenance of equipment (and adjusting for wear and tear too apart from losses in battlefield) for Russia.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 27 Feb 2022 00:21

Atmavik wrote:https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/26-februa ... -ukrainian

Interactive osint map

Very interesting. Thanks.

In addition to overrunning east Ukr, it seems the Russians are doing airborne operations in far western cities like Brody.

Maybe to ensure things are softened up before the next invasion thrust from the north (Belarus) ?

Or will the the advance from the east will keep moving west of the Dnieper?

John · Post by **John** » 27 Feb 2022 00:23

KL Dubey wrote:
Atmavik wrote:https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/26-februa ... -ukrainian

Interactive osint map
Very interesting. Thanks.

In addition to overrunning east Ukr, it seems the Russians are doing airborne operations in far western cities like Brody.

Maybe to ensure things are softened up before the next invasion thrust from the north (Belarus) ?

Or will the the advance from the east will keep moving west of the Dnieper?

Overrunning east Ukraine? Not sure what you mean not much fighting has happened in Donetsk region.

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 27 Feb 2022 00:26

Ukrainian president dials Indian PM Modi, seeks political support in UN Security Council

Volodymyr Zelensky: Spoke with Prime Minister @narendramodi. Informed of the course of repulsing aggression. More than 100,000 invaders are on our land. They insidiously fire on residential buildings. Urged to give us political support in Security Council. Stop the aggressor together!

The prime minister also conveyed India’s deep concern for the safety and security of Indian citizens, including students, present in Ukraine.

Security Council, eh? Remember this, Volod? Ukraine did not "abstain" in 1998. They had condemned India's tests in the same Security Council.

Ukraine had condemned India after the 1998 Nuclear tests, voted against India at the UNSC

It is important to remember that Ukraine was one of those countries that vehemently opposed India’s nuclear tests in 1998 and had condemned India’s actions at the security council following the 1998 nuclear test.

https://www.wionews.com/india-news/ukra ... cil-456824
https://www.opindia.com/2022/02/ukraine ... a-in-1998/

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 27 Feb 2022 00:34

There can be one marginal adv in Russia faltering. China could be bissing in their pants. If this is the situation for Russia in piddly Ukraine, then imagine Cheen in Taiwan that too in an amphibious opn in a narrow channel with Taiwan defences and artillery barrage directed at them. Enough to make XI with his normal "3 days since I used the bathroom" to quickly change to 7 day look. That too with their 1 child policy which got revoked a couple years back, losing troops might be anathema. might draft in the super soldiers / robots earlier than anticipated.

That could mean more stress in the Indian border though. Likely

nam · Post by **nam** » 27 Feb 2022 01:01

We have hardly seen any Ru air power strike videos. In Syria they were everywhere, strangely nothing in Ukraine.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 27 Feb 2022 01:06

nam wrote:We have hardly seen any Ru air power strike videos. In Syria they were everywhere, strangely nothing in Ukraine.

It does appear strange, as if Russia is holding back. Can't put my finger on it, but the whole operation seems contrived.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 27 Feb 2022 01:06

Strange tactics by the Ukraine, none of the bridges are blown up.

Either they have no clue or want to suck the Russians in

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 27 Feb 2022 01:08

nam wrote:We have hardly seen any Ru air power strike videos. In Syria they were everywhere, strangely nothing in Ukraine.

Su 25 attack, but compared to Syrian campaign it’s a fraction of air power. Maybe they r just establishing a bridge head and the real invasion will come later

nam · Post by **nam** » 27 Feb 2022 01:12

Seeing videos & images of columns after columns being hit and abandoned. Saw a video of towed artillery gun & truck been hit.

Given the precision of MBRL, artillery & airpower, modern armies need to be very mobile.Given this requirement, I am wondering is towing an artillery around is such a good idea. Might require artillery become mechanized as well.

And we are one of the largest users of towed artillery.

John · Post by **John** » 27 Feb 2022 01:15

Atmavik wrote:
nam wrote:We have hardly seen any Ru air power strike videos. In Syria they were everywhere, strangely nothing in Ukraine.

Su 25 attack, but compared to Syrian campaign it’s a fraction of air power. Maybe they r just establishing a bridge head and the real invasion will come later

Reportedly the Ukranian S-300s are still active and Russians want to stay below the radar horizon. Even a Ukranian flanker got shot down by mistake.

Also with CAS there is fear of Manpads couple Ka-52s have been taken out early on so need to use them only in quick precision strikes.