Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Roop · Post by **Roop** » 27 Feb 2022 08:52

John wrote:Islamabad and Lahore aren’t 50 km from the border in a flat terrain

Take a look at a map before you say things like this. La Whore is less than 25km from the border, and less than 50km from Amritsar. And yes, the terrain is flat. (In the 1965 war, Indian armored columns crossed the border into Pakistan and reached the outskirts of Lahore in less than 12 hrs. They halted there and waited for instructions from HQ as to whether to advance into the city. They were called back). Islamabad is ten times that distance. Why are you including La Whore and Islumabad in one remark as if they are equivalent?

I get it some people have affinity to Russia ...

This type of remark is really uncalled for. You are, essentially, accusing soemone of pumping out Russian proaganda just because they have different views than you. FWIW, I think that you yourself are displaying obvious pro-Ukie bias, but we (on this forum) should avoid walking that path. People are free to espouse any views they want without being accused of being shills for one side or the other.

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 27 Feb 2022 08:56

The joint official statement issued by the EU and the US says it will sanction the Russian Central Bank.
".... we commit to imposing restrictive measures that will prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions."
This is somewhat vague. Would they actually freeze the foreign currency assets of the Russian Central Bank, usually kept as deposits with other major Central Banks such as the Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England and so on, to prevent Russian Government release foreign exchange to help sanctioned commercial enterprises/banks? If so, it amounts to outright declaration of war. Would they go that far?

m_saini · Post by **m_saini** » 27 Feb 2022 08:58

chanakyaa wrote:+++ and, a perfect segue to this article

Day 3 – Western PSYOPs in full overdrive

chanakyaa-ji sorry to say but that's a trash website with nutjob articles full of propaganda. Hoping this forum isn't placed on some watchlist somewhere due to the link posted.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 27 Feb 2022 09:08

m_saini wrote:
chanakyaa wrote:+++ and, a perfect segue to this article

Day 3 – Western PSYOPs in full overdrive
chanakyaa-ji sorry to say but that's a trash website with nutjob articles full of propaganda. Hoping this forum isn't placed on some watchlist somewhere due to the link posted.

Why? It's basically a blog.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 27 Feb 2022 09:21

m_saini wrote:
chanakyaa wrote:+++ and, a perfect segue to this article

Day 3 – Western PSYOPs in full overdrive
chanakyaa-ji sorry to say but that's a trash website with nutjob articles full of propaganda. Hoping this forum isn't placed on some watchlist somewhere due to the link posted.

This is the closest I've seen to a balanced view from the West so far:

[youtube]https://youtu.be/Xt3Zv-e4n1M[/youtube]
https://youtu.be/Xt3Zv-e4n1M

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 27 Feb 2022 09:25

@m_saini: noted, I did not mean to suggest that it provides authenticated accounts. As for "trash" or "propaganda", BeeBeeShee, SheEnnEnn, Gardian, WaPo ityadi ityadi do not emit gospel, or anywhere close to reality by any stretch of the imagination. Just that we have come to believe these website as somewhere close to News (may be not as much on BR but population in general). It is a blog with its biased view points. Is there any news media that does not have biases or agenda? This conflict's coverage in general has been bizarre, in the sense that there is a complete information blockade. Compared to Donbass 2014 or Syria, very little information is made available/released in public domain.

m_saini · Post by **m_saini** » 27 Feb 2022 09:30

Edited. OT.

m_saini · Post by **m_saini** » 27 Feb 2022 09:40

chanakyaa wrote:@m_saini: noted, I did not mean to suggest that it provides authenticated accounts. As for "trash" or "propaganda", BeeBeeShee, SheEnnEnn, Gardian, WaPo ityadi ityadi do not emit gospel, or anywhere close to reality by any stretch of the imagination. Just that we have come to believe these website as somewhere close to News (may be not as much on BR but population in general). It is a blog with its biased view points. Is there any news media that does not have biases or agenda? This conflict's coverage in general has been bizarre, in the sense that there is a complete information blockade. Compared to Donbass 2014 or Syria, very little information is made available/released in public domain.

chanakyaa sir, biased is okay and expected. But I personally felt that blog breached conspiracy theory level. I apologize if I got out of line, I like reading non-MSM sources but that one just sounded too insane. Anyway, no more from me.

LakshmanPST · Post by **LakshmanPST** » 27 Feb 2022 09:46

I think one of Putin's objectives definitely include dividing Ukraine...
Donbass region is definitely going to be separated from Ukraine... Many ppl are assuming that Putin wants to control entire territory east of Dniper river...
But I guess Putin is aiming to create Novorossiya (see this---> https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novoros ... ederation) )
This Novorossiya will effectively turn Ukraine into a landlocked country and will secure Russia in Black Sea...
-
Not only Zelensky, no leader would agree to divide their country without a fight...
So, Putin probably want to occupy entire Ukraine and force Zelensky to surrender unconditionally...
If Zelensky fleds the country, Putin can still show it as a weakness and force any interim regime to recognize the new country/Republic...
----
Apart from this, Putin also want written guarantee that remiaining Ukraine does not join NATO...
I don't think it will really matter whoever rules Ukraine after this...

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 27 Feb 2022 09:47

m_saini: fair point. no apologies needed. all good. thanks

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 27 Feb 2022 10:10

Mort Walker wrote:
nam wrote:We have hardly seen any Ru air power strike videos. In Syria they were everywhere, strangely nothing in Ukraine.
It does appear strange, as if Russia is holding back. Can't put my finger on it, but the whole operation seems contrived.

Which goes back to war goals. They are the one and the same. Fratricide. Im assuming Russia doesn't want to touch civilians explicitly as that will make the situation worse.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 27 Feb 2022 10:16

One of the most recommended Russian OSINT source (unfortunately no translation available).

Says Russian advance is too fast for fuel and support vehicles to keep up. Broken down vehicles are simply abandoned and gutted. Ukrainian forces claim them as kills and post them on Social Media.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 27 Feb 2022 10:30

Telesur, the Latin American channel seems to show some things from the Russian side for those who are looking...

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 27 Feb 2022 10:34

Telesur shows some Russian military spokespersons who claim to have captured a bunch of western munitions like nlaw and javelin.

Supposedly 821 military targets taken down.

https://youtu.be/0z8TzRbHOEA

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 27 Feb 2022 10:43

John wrote:
vinod wrote:Zelenski is being made into a hero, ordinary Ukrainians are being shown as very brave and defending their home, anti war protests. All these are meant to prolong the war in Ukraine and west has pretty much succeeded in it so far.
All Putin had to was recognize the two republics and get some
guarantee that NATO won’t expand to Ukraine in return he will guarantee Russia won’t attack Ukraine. He could have gotten that deal and walked away a winner.

NATO never gives membership to a country that has border disputes. I mean, NEVER. Its part of their membership rules if one cares to check. So, NO this was never about Ukraine not ever joining NATO. It was more about the direction in which Uk is going thanks to EU / NATO / West and US support.

I got to read an article where Uk actually bifurcated the church and tried to build their own Patriarchy. I missed it earlier. Trying to get the link that a colleague in a forecasting competition passed on.

So sequence roughly could have been as follows:

a. Putin has always been upset about USSR dissolution and has mentioned it must times.
b. He has been at the helm for roughly 2 decades. He was assuming he will eventually get his sphere of interest. In Baltics / E Europe etc. When he realised it wont happen in 2k8, he did Georgia.
c. ECU came sometime from 2010-2012. Cant recall timeline too well but I remember Uk didnt want to join in the customs union.
d. With Russian pop scare and Uk and Rus being same, Uk is a large part of Rus agenda and the pop / talent and resource pool is sig and Rus cant do w/o it.
e. 2014, Euromaidan when Uk wanted to look at NATO / EU membership. US and Nuland also caught with hand in sugar pot. Color revolution but Rus took Crimea. and parts of 2 oblasts. Tech ensured NATO membership cant happen.
f. EU lot more sensible and didnt want to give membership - only dangle the carrot in front of their eyes ala Turkey. But never give in.
g. Uk constitution changed to not look for eventual membership of NATO / EU - independent foreign pol etc. Red lines from Russia.
h. 2 dispensations didnt do much to enforce Minsk agreement or cave in. Also split Church (which I missed).
i. No agreement on NS2 even though Russ tries to engage EU and get agreement.

Rus realises that its giving up a lot (in terms of sanctions due to Crimea etc etc) while west / US giving Ukr enough to ensure they can eventually take back even Crimea. Somewhere something has triggered and we wont know for sure. Its happened. But def not because of NATO membership. Even as is, Uk couldn't have gotten into NATO for reasons mentioned above.

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 27 Feb 2022 10:49

LOL...it seems like the myth about Ghost of Kiev, the ace MiG-29 pilot who shot down impressive number of Russian aircrafts, uses footage from a DCS game. In fact, DCS has put up a post on their forum requesting users to desist using their game to produce misleading footage and spread them to further worsen the situation. Remember how reluctant & silent Western outlets where when our MiG-21 shot down a Paki F-16, even when IAF presented convincing proof...well the same outlets are now parroting (at least on SM) followed by hundred of RTs about Ghost of Kiev. Western folks are desperate for any positive news from Ukraine that it doesn't even hold back & think before putting out ridiculous fake news like above.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 27 Feb 2022 10:53

Thakur_B wrote:

One of the most recommended Russian OSINT source (unfortunately no translation available).

Says Russian advance is too fast for fuel and support vehicles to keep up. Broken down vehicles are simply abandoned and gutted. Ukrainian forces claim them as kills and post them on Social Media.

I would say its a lie. Cost of fuel is <<< cost of a tank and allowing it to moth or become rump isnt a good strategy or plan. Its difficult to admit that shit happens when life is at stake. If Russia is admitting that they are running out of fuel, it means Uk sp ops are doing a fine job of cutting off Rus supply lines. And do note that they had limited supply trucks. It can get tricky if this is true. Will be forced to do air supply and not sure how many S-300 / MANPADS / AA are still active. Plus they will need to take Kiev airport.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 27 Feb 2022 11:17

Zynda wrote:LOL...it seems like the myth about Ghost of Kiev, the ace MiG-29 pilot who shot down impressive number of Russian aircrafts, uses footage from a DCS game. In fact, DCS has put up a post on their forum requesting users to desist using their game to produce misleading footage and spread them to further worsen the situation. Remember how reluctant & silent Western outlets where when our MiG-21 shot down a Paki F-16, even when IAF presented convincing proof...well the same outlets are now parroting (at least on SM) followed by hundred of RTs about Ghost of Kiev. Western folks are desperate for any positive news from Ukraine that it doesn't even hold back & think before putting out ridiculous fake news like above.

The 2 IL 76 shot down story has also disappeared without trace.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 27 Feb 2022 11:19

vijaykarthik wrote:
Thakur_B wrote:

One of the most recommended Russian OSINT source (unfortunately no translation available).

Says Russian advance is too fast for fuel and support vehicles to keep up. Broken down vehicles are simply abandoned and gutted. Ukrainian forces claim them as kills and post them on Social Media.
I would say its a lie. Cost of fuel is <<< cost of a tank and allowing it to moth or become rump isnt a good strategy or plan. Its difficult to admit that shit happens when life is at stake. If Russia is admitting that they are running out of fuel, it means Uk sp ops are doing a fine job of cutting off Rus supply lines. And do note that they had limited supply trucks. It can get tricky if this is true. Will be forced to do air supply and not sure how many S-300 / MANPADS / AA are still active. Plus they will need to take Kiev airport.

It's good to have some propaganda from other side as well. Helps break the monotony.

ernest · Post by **ernest** » 27 Feb 2022 11:22

Baikul wrote:
It got back so many fond memories of possibly the greatest BR forummer ever (IMO).

Have always been meaning to ask: I know Shiv garu departed BR precipitously (Mods - I’m living dangerously now haha) but can someone PM me as to his whereabouts?

Search for "Bennedose" on Twitter, "cybersburg" on youtube

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 27 Feb 2022 11:38

ernest wrote:
Baikul wrote:
It got back so many fond memories of possibly the greatest BR forummer ever (IMO).

Have always been meaning to ask: I know Shiv garu departed BR precipitously (Mods - I’m living dangerously now haha) but can someone PM me as to his whereabouts?
Search for "Bennedose" on Twitter, "cybersburg" on youtube

Yes, he's active there. I miss Dr Shiv's gyan on BRF though.

rkirankr · Post by **rkirankr** » 27 Feb 2022 11:45

https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/ ... 2136060932

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 27 Feb 2022 11:55

little humor from the ukr side
https://t.me/intelslava/20755

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 27 Feb 2022 12:15

rkirankr wrote:https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/ ... 2136060932

I feel this is a very good summary of Russia’s pov and recommend everyone reads it. In short, Russia has taken care to minimise civilian casualties and is also not using its first line weapons. Both points seem to be valid. The tweets also conclude that’s given that Western intelligence (a considerable force multiplier) and western weapons are at Ukraine’s disposal, Russia has not done badly at all. Tje US comparatively did a lot worse in Iraq.

Going forward my question is will Putin take the gamble of upping the intensity, effort, striking power of his troops leading to a faster end but with bloodier battles and significantly more risk to civilians? Assuming of course that he is presently unsatisfied with the war effort. For all I know the Russians may be satisfied with development Ns just as they are.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 27 Feb 2022 12:18

Deans wrote: Yes, he's active there. I miss Dr Shiv's gyan on BRF though.

What exactly happened a couple years back. Looks like I missed it as Im here after a hiatus of ~2-3 years. I see so many of the oldies missing. Is SS still there. I used to like the China analysis and reporting he did.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 27 Feb 2022 12:32

Russians have entered Kharkiv - looks like just testing probes for now but if they’re now planning to take the city, expect more bloody combat:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 27 Feb 2022 12:39

Importance of this for India:

a. If Russia get bogged down (as it likely will), see if we have get some agreements done to take care of our interests. No explicit move into China's arms black black (going to be a tight ropewalk btw as India will be seen as a bad partner both by US and Russ now and lets face it, we cant bring to bear the kind of money that China (or US) can)
b. Analyse all little details of this. Towed artillery as someone mentioned is looking antediluvian. Look for ways to change overall conc of troops. Have some probabilistic and scientific analysis hopefully on force conc and weapon systems.
c. Look seriously at correcting force conc. Most of out budget goes to paying pension and sal of army. Look at options to make it leaner, more weapons focused.
d. Tighten comm strategy and integrated theatre commands. Navy and Airpower is equally important. No good saying AirPower is just support infra. Ack impending need and move on with proper planning.
e. No one will come to our help when XI 3 day old poo hits the fan. We need our own weapon delivery system and have a strong pol power to strangle and strangle quick. Max impact in min time. Op Parakram took 2 weeks for Army strike corps to get ready to deploy. There were lots of learnings and I hope readiness is assessed from time to time.
f. Establish clear war goals / pol goals for war. A mil is as good as the goals thats been drafted. No proper goal will lead to confusion and chaos. Scope creep isnt an option.
g. Invasion should be a last option. Even best laid plans can fail. Defensive ops are better as it has a clear goal and has worldwide support. Not that India plans to invade. But some ideas definitely need strengthening.
h. Naval presence needs significantly more strengthening. We had a blue water navy for a longer period than China and I do believe its eroding. India is a naval power and its getting bogged down thinking its a land locked power and ending up with lesser money for naval upgrades.
i. Threat perception of attacking supply lines / interdicting straits as good a method for making a country pause before taking serious action. The better prepared we are navally, the better prepared we are to pack a punch in a 2 front war.
j. OSINT / ELINT / HUMINT matter and are valuable. Ditto cyber forces. Perhaps an option to bring in experts into this field for max effort and effect. This is primarily a younger gen job and needs focus.

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 27 Feb 2022 12:53

There have been some videos posted on Twitter by Indian students that Ukr forces posted at border checkpoints with Poland aren't letting Indian students pass through. Apparently, the Ukr soldiers are saying that India has sided with enemy and are forcing Indian students to stay back even though Poland is ready to accept them. Not sure how much of its is true but I do hope MEA/GoI is already on it and I hope Indian media will cover this and not get in to the Western stereotype of "you are with us or against us" mentality and the fear of showing any negative news towards Ukraine is akin to being a traitor and its possible consequences.

Probably fantasising here but it is possible for India to deploy IA members to ensure that Ukr folks don't stop any Indian citizens from leaving Ukraine? It could be like IA members camped out on Polish side of the checkpoint and intervene only if required.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 27 Feb 2022 13:07

One interesting tudbit to note is, wherever Russian or Ukrainian forces are outnumbered, they are surrendering without fuss. No last man stands as observed in India Pak scenario. It's as if pow expect to be treated well and there is no desire to obliterate the enemy.

syam · Post by **syam** » 27 Feb 2022 13:50

Narrative became frantic in last few hours. Since yesterday if I am not mistaken.

Some one must be having good time taking notes. I sincerely hope GoI taking notes on all these developments.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 27 Feb 2022 13:55

Twitter rumors that Zelensky is considering setting up a foreign legion. If its true then he probably doesn't believe that Kyiv and Kharkov will hold much longer. On the other hand Russians really need to sort out their ovrestretched supply lines, you see entire convoys getting obliterated because they ran out of fuel in the enemy territory !

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 27 Feb 2022 14:00

Ambar wrote:Twitter rumors that Zelensky is considering setting up a foreign legion. If its true then he probably doesn't believe that Kyiv and Kharkov will hold much longer. On the other hand Russians really need to sort out their ovrestretched supply lines, you see entire convoys getting obliterated because they ran out of fuel in the enemy territory !

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 27 Feb 2022 14:06

https://www.deccanherald.com/internatio ... 85598.html
https://news.abplive.com/news/india/ukr ... sc-1515723
Can this be Namo's moment to seize the initiative or should he stay completely out of this conflict.
Meaning Belarus not acceptable to Ukariane
Can we do a reverse Tashkent
Can we call Putin and Zelensky to New Delhi??
But how do we keep the soaring 'Eagle' and the unruly 'Panda' out of the Maidan??

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 27 Feb 2022 14:12

Ambar wrote:Twitter rumors that Zelensky is considering setting up a foreign legion. If its true then he probably doesn't believe that Kyiv and Kharkov will hold much longer. On the other hand Russians really need to sort out their ovrestretched supply lines, you see entire convoys getting obliterated because they ran out of fuel in the enemy territory !

Only southern and central portion of Kiev is in Ukr control. Russians seem to have opened up some heavy artillery at Kharkiv and Mariopul.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 27 Feb 2022 14:43

Summary of western media coverage

John · Post by **John** » 27 Feb 2022 15:23

Baikul wrote:Russians have entered Kharkiv - looks like just testing probes for now but if they’re now planning to take the city, expect more bloody combat:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877

Ukranians have reportedly taken them all out I don’t understand why Russians keep sending handful of soldiers (about two dozen in 4 SUVs) to take cities even few Ukranians who are well versed in terrain can defeat them. This seems to be first battle that was documented from start to finish.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 27 Feb 2022 15:31

As per my sources, ukranians just surrendered kharkiv and ran away. So any neutral sources to counter this? I think BRF should stop all these western PR agencies deployed. High time.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 27 Feb 2022 15:32

Aftermath of Russian cruise missile strikes.
https://defenceforumindia.com/threads/r ... st-2168934

We can be most certain that the ghost of Kiev was indeed the ghost of a pilot flying a ghostly plane

John · Post by **John** » 27 Feb 2022 15:34

kvraghav wrote:As per my sources, ukranians just surrendered kharkiv and ran away. So any neutral sources to counter this? I think BRF should stop all these western PR agencies deployed. High time.

Here is aftermath Russian force has been dealt with not sure any Russians were captured but their bodies have been removed, some supposedly fled to a building where they were engaged as well. Only this group of Ukrainian seem to have engaged them from start to finish.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/ ... edium=mweb

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 27 Feb 2022 15:35

What more can the west do that they haven't done already ? Time for Russia to call in heavy artillery and bombers and begin flattening resistance in Kharkiv and Kyiv. As the bodies pile up, tanks and armored vehicles get destroyed, Russia will get bogged down deeper and deeper. Get the heavy hitters, improve the supply chain and end the damn war before it gets even bloodier.