Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

[Thakur_B]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ANI/status/1 ... 9978562569

Ukraine Blinks, agrees for talks.

[kvraghav]

As per my sources, ukranians just surrendered kharkiv and ran away. So any neutral sources to counter this? I think BRF should stop all these western PR agencies deployed. High time.

Here is aftermath Russian force has been dealt with not sure any Russians were captured but their bodies have been removed, some supposedly fled to a building where they were engaged as well. Only this group of Ukrainian seem to have engaged them from start to finish.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/ ... edium=mweb

Bodies have been removed , cats have been cleared. I mean western PR is expected to be better. Atleast a granny with bazooka please?

[John]

Aftermath of Russian cruise missile strikes.
https://defenceforumindia.com/threads/r ... st-2168934

We can be most certain that the ghost of Kiev was indeed the ghost of a pilot flying a ghostly plane

Lot of the claims are pretty ridiculous like the 4 Russian Il-76 that claim to have shot down.

[kvraghav]

I think John should stop posting. most of his claims is being proved wrong in 24 hours. He was first to break the il76 shoot down and now down hill sking? Typical paki.

[John]

Here is aftermath Russian force has been dealt with not sure any Russians were captured but their bodies have been removed, some supposedly fled to a building where they were engaged as well. Only this group of Ukrainian seem to have engaged them from start to finish.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/ ... edium=mweb

Bodies have been removed , cats have been cleared. I mean western PR is expected to be better. Atleast a granny with bazooka please?

Even if you really want to see NSFW footage you can go search Reddit thread there and see the footage where they are getting engaged and killed.

[Deans]

A point to note - no army in the history of warfare has advanced at this rate. Specifically the push north from Crimea and the push towards Kiev, from West of the Dnieper. The previous best was US in GW-2,in Iraq. That was when they had superb roads, unlimited oil and oil transport infra and almost no opposition. In the current situation, it is difficult for heavy vehicles to travel off road because of melting snow.

[John]

I think John should stop posting. most of his claims is being proved wrong in 24 hours. He was first to break the il76 shoot down and now down hill sking? Typical paki.

Huh I never made that claim stop posting BS.

[kvraghav]

It's really getting exhaustive now. You are getting paid to do this but we are trying to balance it here. You are like the puppy who shits on others backyard and expects them to clean it up. Burden of proof not on us. Please Bradmins, anyone posting without neutral links should be banned for weeks including me. This is going too far and keeping neutral forum become exhaustive. If all was so wel, then let the war continue full fledged and see who wins right

[John]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ANI/status/1 ... 9978562569

Ukraine Blinks, agrees for talks.

Didn’t they agree to talks in Poland couple days ago what happened to that?

[kvraghav]

I think John should stop posting. most of his claims is being proved wrong in 24 hours. He was first to break the il76 shoot down and now down hill sking? Typical paki.

Huh I never made that claim stop posting BS.

Prove it since you always place the burden of proof on others.

[kvraghav]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ANI/status/1 ... 9978562569

Ukraine Blinks, agrees for talks.

Didn’t they agree to talks in Poland couple days ago what happened to that?

You said Lahore was not as far as kiyv from border and undermining Indian forces response in 1965.

[John]

Huh I never made that claim stop posting BS.

Prove it since you always place the burden of proof on others.

What do you mean prove it? You said Kharkov was captured and abandoned by Ukrainians without any proof. I said battle is over which is last info we have, if you want those NSFW links I can msg it to you. I understand you want Russians to win, trying to post what I am seeing from both sides.

[kvraghav]

Prove it since you always place the burden of proof on others.

What do you mean prove it? You said Kharkov was captured and abandoned by Ukrainians without any proof. I said battle is over which is last info we have, if you want those NSFW links I can msg it to you. I understand you want Russians to win, trying to post what I am seeing from both sides.

And I understand you want West to win the that does not mean you should submit to western propaganda. Between NSFW is neutral? You are not seeing anything from both sides. Only west

[John]

What do you mean prove it? You said Kharkov was captured and abandoned by Ukrainians without any proof. I said battle is over which is last info we have, if you want those NSFW links I can msg it to you. I understand you want Russians to win, trying to post what I am seeing from both sides.

And I understand you want West to win the that does not mean you should submit to western propaganda. Between NSFW is neutral? You are not seeing anything from both sides. Only west

Don’t care which side wins I am posting what I see, unf we don’t see much footage from Russian side. I think posted the Chechnya soldier capturing armory here because that’s latest video I seen from that side. I was also first here to prove Russian claim of Ukranian SAM hit on Kyiz Apartment was correct and I think I posted the video with my assessment.

[Cyrano]

kraghav, john, please dont clog this thread.

[kvraghav]

We have always been a forum of facts and in all these years, I am surprised a PR iss being run without proofs. People are posting away without proofs. I am ready to be banned provided the thread remains neutral and fact based. Untill then, will clog.

[kvraghav]

And I understand you want West to win the that does not mean you should submit to western propaganda. Between NSFW is neutral? You are not seeing anything from both sides. Only west

Don’t care which side wins I am posting what I see, unf we don’t see much footage from Russian side. I think posted the Chechnya soldier capturing armory here because that’s latest video I seen from that side. I was also first here to prove Russian claim of Ukranian SAM hit on Kyiz Apartment was correct and I think I posted the video with my assessment.

That's the problem. We have a saying in India. Please proof what you see. Possibly you don't know since you don't even know distance of Pakistan cities from Indian border. This forum is not to report what you see. I mean people also see flying saucers right

[Baikul]

Russians have entered Kharkiv - looks like just testing probes for now but if they’re now planning to take the city, expect more bloody combat:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877

Ukranians have reportedly taken them all out I don’t understand why Russians keep sending handful of soldiers (about two dozen in 4 SUVs) to take cities even few Ukranians who are well versed in terrain can defeat them. This seems to be first battle that was documented from start to finish.

As I said they could be probes. It’s not unheard of. And I’d hardly call this a battle - a minor skirmish maybe.

One thing I’d agree with is that the nature of video footage we are seeing may be changing. Till now we’ve been mostly seeing civilian shot footage, the kind that tracks BMPs and tanks on the street, or air and arty strikes from inside apartments, cars etc. Mostly. Today from Kharkiv we saw footage of the kind we’ve been seeing in Syria - first person, possibly shot by a squaddie, showing an active engagement close up, and it’s aftermath even closer.

I think if Russia presses into the cities harder we will get more of this kind. But given that Russia is apparently not allowing its soldiers to carry cellphones into battle, we will probably only end up mostly seeing a Ukrainian pov.

[John]

I think if Russia presses into the cities harder we will get more of this kind. But given that Russia is apparently not allowing its soldiers to carry cellphones into battle, we will probably only end up mostly seeing a Ukrainian pov

This reminds me of Armenian-Az/Turkey conflict last year I posted lot of Armenian combat vid and unf that’s all we had. Since no one has any love for Turkey, no one had problem with it. I did remember mentioning just because we are seeing Armenian combat vids doesn’t mean that side is winning I know some folks took that offensively when I said that. Armenians in the end ended up losing badly.

People have to consume what they are seeing and make their own judgement.

[Baikul]

What more can the west do that they haven't done already ? Time for Russia to call in heavy artillery and bombers and begin flattening resistance in Kharkiv and Kyiv. As the bodies pile up, tanks and armored vehicles get destroyed, Russia will get bogged down deeper and deeper. Get the heavy hitters, improve the supply chain and end the damn war before it gets even bloodier.

I suspect from here on it’s a function of causalities - how many casualties is Putin willing to inflict and how many is he willing to take.

His dilemma, as armchair general me sees it, is how to fight a war in a city without first pounding the living heck out of it first? Every house can be a pocket of resistance, every square a death trap. So if he does, we can expect how’s of anguish from international agencies, media, nations etc on civilian casualties.

But if he doesn’t his troops could suffer big big time (Chechnya,). IMO.

And so far I have seen any reason to believe that the Ukrainian aren’t committed. Maybe not like the Chechens, but enough, and they have considerable western support.

With even a huge disparity in firepower, tech and even numbers, the US took days and weeks in the battles of Fallujah in 2004. I’m not seeing it, but I guess I’ll wait to see how the pros handle it.

Edit: For what it’s worth I think so far Putin and the Russian army have shown a lot of restraint in their handling of civilians. I’m sure the Ukrainians would have inundated social media with examples and pics, instead of the (very) few stories we’ve been reading so far.

[Cain Marko]

What more can the west do that they haven't done already ? Time for Russia to call in heavy artillery and bombers and begin flattening resistance in Kharkiv and Kyiv. As the bodies pile up, tanks and armored vehicles get destroyed, Russia will get bogged down deeper and deeper. Get the heavy hitters, improve the supply chain and end the damn war before it gets even bloodier.

I suspect from here on it’s a function of causalities - how many casualties is Putin willing to inflict and how many is he willing to take.

His dilemma, as armchair general me sees it, is how to fight a war in a city without first pounding the living heck out of it first? Every house can be a pocket of resistance, every square a death trap. So if he does, we can expect how’s of anguish from international agencies, media, nations etc on civilian casualties.

But if he doesn’t his troops could suffer big big time (Chechnya,). IMO.

And so far I have seen any reason to believe that the Ukrainian aren’t committed. Maybe not like the Chechens, but enough, and they have considerable western support.

With even a huge disparity in firepower, tech and even numbers, the US took days and weeks in the battles of Fallujah in 2004. I’m not seeing it, but I guess I’ll wait to see how the pros handle it.

1. Russian troops can try to get to the prez palace and get zelensky.
2. If #1 not possible, they can withdraw to a safe distance and besiege the city.
3. If city is besieged, nothing goes in/out, all power and water infra remains with Rus.
4. IF #3, then city of 3 mill won't take long to fold without being pounded. People need their internet!

[Baikul]

1. Russian troops can try to get to the prez palace and get zelensky.
2. If #1 not possible, they can withdraw to a safe distance and besiege the city.
3. If city is besieged, nothing goes in/out, all power and water infra remains with Rus.
4. IF #3, then city of 3 mill won't take long to fold without being pounded. People need their internet!

I’m pretty sure by now that even if they get Zelenaky (which frankly sounds very optimistic), someone else will step up. Ukraine isn’t really a Saddam Hussein or Gaddafi type of set up where taking out one man would collapse the entire system.

How many cities can they besiege? Only Kyiv sounds impractical, what about Kharkiv? Odessa? Do they have the army, the time, or the money (not to talk of the besieger getting hit from somewhere else) to just stay there. I don’t know.

Maybe he’s gambling that Ukraine will fold. I doubt the Ukrainians want mass slaughter either.

Meanwhile Russia has toughened its stance ( was reported about 15-20 minutes ago):

https://www.tbsnews.net/world/russia-gi ... rus-377209

A 3PM 7AM ET (5:30 AM PM Monday Sunday for India) deadline for talks in Belarus, or else.

Edit: I apologise to all. I had erred in my time zones. It seems the deadline has just expired

Russia had offered to talk earlier also but but Zelensky had rejected this staying that the venue was in Belarus, a hostile nation that helped lunch the attacks. This part of the Russian’s latest offer hasn’t changed. They’ve just tacked on a deadline.

[Thakur_B]

Russians have laid siege on a good 10-11 cities so far, without much collateral damage or extraordinary amounts of violence. For the number of cities and area under siege, the Ukrainian resistance so far has been tepid, unless you count on western MSM. Majority of footage on r/combatfootage is mostly an odd Russian patrol vehicle or armour casually rolling down the streets.

The Russian bear hasn't been seriously challenged so far. We haven't seen much in the way of bombers and air strikes. No Su30SM/34/35 tearing up the sky. No Tu22/95/160 releasing payloads like Syria. It's mostly convoys after convoys of T72 and some supply trucks.

Russian operations in Syria seemed far more Kinetic.

[Thakur_B]

The sole An225 may have been lost. Sad.

[vijaykarthik]

A few more points from OSINT:

a. looks like a fair few are contract soldiers. (https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia-us ... group-says)

Not sure how much truth but its something that Russia does use - mercenaries. I believe some were used in the Crimea opn too. So, wont discount the article entirely.

And another critical point there - once casualty starts kicking in, mothers of soldiers can be a tight knit group and can create lots of pressure on Putin.

b. Interestingly Uk started a tele service for mothers to call and find well being of Russian soldiers - I guess they can achieve 2 things: get an idea of nos / get media PR and sympathy.

c. If this goes on for longer and casualties start kicking in, there will be more pressure from mothers and it can have severe constraints on Putin as to scope of goal.

d. If Kiev takes more time, either amp up pressure (Lt Gnl Ata Hasnain also thinks thats a possibility) or try and back off (bad option and will admit defeat). But amping up pressure = fratricide going worse.

Putin has a bunch of shitty options / tradeoffs if this prolongs for a longer period.

[yensoy]

^^^^ Exactly. He has lost the hearts and minds of the Ukrainian people. He will only make a martyr of the forces he wants to destroy.

[kit]

With even a huge disparity in firepower, tech and even numbers, the US took days and weeks in the battles of Fallujah in 2004. I’m not seeing it, but I guess I’ll wait to see how the pros handle it.

1. Russian troops can try to get to the prez palace and get zelensky.
2. If #1 not possible, they can withdraw to a safe distance and besiege the city.
3. If city is besieged, nothing goes in/out, all power and water infra remains with Rus.
4. IF #3, then city of 3 mill won't take long to fold without being pounded. People need their internet!

Starlink to the rescue ., thou may not eat but be online

[kit]

I think if Russia presses into the cities harder we will get more of this kind. But given that Russia is apparently not allowing its soldiers to carry cellphones into battle, we will probably only end up mostly seeing a Ukrainian pov.

check out Intel Slava Z on telegram

[kit]

Edit: For what it’s worth I think so far Putin and the Russian army have shown a lot of restraint in their handling of civilians. I’m sure the Ukrainians would have inundated social media with examples and pics, instead of the (very) few stories we’ve been reading so far.

true., only pic the western media is holding up is the bloodied face of an old lady !!

[vijaykarthik]

A point to note - no army in the history of warfare has advanced at this rate. Specifically the push north from Crimea and the push towards Kiev, from West of the Dnieper. The previous best was US in GW-2,in Iraq. That was when they had superb roads, unlimited oil and oil transport infra and almost no opposition. In the current situation, it is difficult for heavy vehicles to travel off road because of melting snow.

Rasputitsa. (Mentioned it in one of the earlier comments of mine. Still wonder why from timing perspective. Besides, this year was also poor weather leading to even less snow. more treacherous)

[kit]

Aftermath of Russian cruise missile strikes.
https://defenceforumindia.com/threads/r ... st-2168934

We can be most certain that the ghost of Kiev was indeed the ghost of a pilot flying a ghostly plane

Lot of the claims are pretty ridiculous like the 4 Russian Il-76 that claim to have shot down.

there is one pic of a crashed Ukrainian IL 76 , interestingly google seems to "control" and " regulate" search results referring to ukraine !

Interesting pointers here.. Google is a part of the information warfare rather than being a solution !!

[Ambar]

SKY Tv reporting that Russian forces have finally broken into Kharkiv. Atleast going by the map shown on TV, the Russian invasion as it stands today covers less than 10% of Ukraine, goes to show how hard it is to occupy a nation even when you have an overwhelming advantage.

[Baikul]

Obviously the Western allies are going all out in their attempts to destroy Putin / defeat Russia. The obvious signs are the unusual unity among NATO members and increased increased militarisation in some frontline states, and the massive financial sanctions orchestrated by the US.

But how really serious they are becomes crystal clear when you consider the following:

1. Germany is sending military supplies to Ukraine, which is a complete reversal of its ages policy to not send weapons to a conflict zone. This policy was in part consequence, some say, of its guilt over its role as an aggressor in WWII. If true, that’s a 180 degree change on a core principle.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine ... s-supplies/

2. England’s Foreign Secretary has stated she will support Britons who want to fight Russia in Ukraine. For England, if this is what the establishment is thinking, it’s a tectonic shift. As a reminder, even in the Spanish Civil War, the British establishment discourage Britons who wanted it to fight Franco, Hitler and Mussolini! In fact the government even considered prosecuting these volunteers who were fighting fascism!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ght-russia

3. Japan, usually more self effacing, has actively condemned Russia, in a clear reversal of its policy in 2014 in the war in Georgia.

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022 ... shida.html

Just three examples which really highlighted for me more than anything else how deep this goes.

[Zynda]

I don't know what some of the Western ex-servicemen on Twitter are thinking...they are giving detailed instructions on how to conduct urban warfare against Russian soldiers (like how to target armoured & non-armoured vehicles & personals etc.) as well as giving instructions on how to make Molotov cocktails with extra hints like how to make it stick on vehicles. Once they pick up a weapon, these civilians will become legitimate military targets...Russian forces so far have demonstrated good professionalism (as it is expected) in avoiding targeting Ukrainian civilians but if put in a situation where Russian soldiers might be in harm, all that might change and untrained civilian force will have no chance against even Tier-2 Russian soldiers in mechanised vehicles. Perhaps some of these Western experts want exactly the above...to win PR war and put additional pressure on Putin etc. It is also equally dangerous moves by Ukrainian President to ask his civilians to pick up arms (of course one can always argue desperate times calls for desperate measures) but a truly good leader will recognise ways to minimise harm on their people...

[Baikul]

check out Intel Slava Z on telegram

Been following it for a while and have mentioned it earlier one of my comments IIRC.

[Thakur_B]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ANI/status/1 ... 9978562569

Ukraine Blinks, agrees for talks.

Didn’t they agree to talks in Poland couple days ago what happened to that?

They are insisting on neutral venue as Belarus is also a belligerent in this conflict. Maybe Modi kaka should pitch in to mediate the conflict because we are neutral and friendly to both nations.

[Thakur_B]

Russian troops in Kharkiv have been engaged by small arms fire from residential buildings and have used RPGs in retaliation. Well the picnic is over for Russians.

[vijayk]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1497925656256122883

FP News Agency @AFP
VIDEO: President Volodymyr Zelensky says Ukraine is willing to hold talks with Russia, but rejected convening them in neighbouring Belarus as it was being used as a launchpad for Moscow's invasion

[hnair]

I am ready to be banned provided the thread remains neutral and fact based. Untill then, will clog.

We don’t want a martyr who keeps the threads clean with his sacrifice. We also don’t want a troll doing personal attacks like how you are doing in multiple posts in this thread.

kvraghav, a quick review of your past posts shows a certain narrow minded slant even in Indian internal matters. Maybe this is not the platform for you compared to your own social media profiles? Anyways off for a week, but do be nicer if you want to be back and contribute.

And thanks everyone for reporting him, rather than engaging.

Also please heed ramana’s advise on providing links instead of opinions! There are lots of people posting pro and anti russia posts in the form of personal opinions and fervent wishes about what should happen to the two parties in the conflict. That doesn’t look interesting without new or old links quoted to form our own conclusions

[Thakur_B]

Russian media has claimed Ukraine has used chemical weapons on their troops.