Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

kit · Post by **kit** » 28 Feb 2022 23:11

deleted ., OT

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 28 Feb 2022 23:11

On the topic of Russians losing the propaganda war. They are not fighting the propaganda war. They are no match for propaganda against them, and they should know that.

Attackers are always the bad guys unless there is a reason the common man can understand.

Humans tend to gravitate towards a simple cause-effect. Iraq invaded Kuwait. Kuwait -> victim. Iraq -> Bad guy as it 'occupied' Kuwait. The US helped Kuwait, by attacking Iraq. So American attack was seen as 'help' and not equated to be the bad guys. US attack on Afghanistan was seen as a righteous retaliation to 911.

Aam admi cannot understand the global politics that go behind the scenes, they do not understand why Russia attacked Ukraine. To an aam admi, Ukraine is a democracy that decided to side with NATO/West. And Russia has no business attacking the free will of a nation. The bulk of us operate at this level of thinking.

Putin and Russia would not be bothered about global propaganda, but only the impact on their domestic audience (to an extent).

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 28 Feb 2022 23:16

ramana wrote:
kit wrote:
It is a national security threat. I have been saying this for a while.

Some idiot babu had given permission to Musk's Starlink service and sat phones and this was cancelled only recently.
And his Man in Delhi decamped.

Musk is US deep state guy. Don't be fooled by his many indictments.

In India, being babooze is an entrepreneurial activity. Low investment, low risk, high growth, high margins, and high returns.

It offers opportunity for organic growth as well as possibilities for interdisciplinary investments and eminently amenable to non organic externally sourced leadership which is usually the heavy hitters in the FFNGO sector and trade or armament commission agency type of cowboy / wildcatter nexus to parviars and darbars.

It is a historical and colonial legacy that can be traced back to profiting facilitators surreptitious door openers operating in the dark of the night

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 28 Feb 2022 23:19

Yagnasri wrote:I refused to believe Putin had not gamed this. He was warned about this before and knows what is coming.

My take is he will not have anticipated the nuc option - central bank reserves being frozen and elites totally getting sanctioned. He will have expected SWIFT as an extreme measure but he has got the worst of all options - strengthened NATO, EU which has grown a pair and wants weapons now, open up nuc world - many countries are seeing this and now know that nuc deterrence is all about and why its important (as a hypothetical, if Ukr hadn't given up n weapons in the Budapest memorandum, we dont know if this day would have arrived), serious risk of sovereign default, junk status of Russian credit, potential fight of oligarchs which can lead to trouble.

He seems to have miscalculated. Will like to see who is going to be the fall guy for this, if it goes pear shaped,

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 28 Feb 2022 23:19

US MSM propaganda seems to be focussed for internal consumption seeing as to how american citizens are losing their minds on social media about nukular ware and are now strongly behind US "taking down the evil known as putin". Making Putin unpopular local has the additional benefit of taking down Trump's view of Russia, as being against US interests, so if Putin pulls back, GOTUS can claim to have been singlehandedly responsible for the reversal, and if the war escalates, that push the point at Putin being evil incarnate. "All politics is local" has some truth to it.

LakshmanPST · Post by **LakshmanPST** » 28 Feb 2022 23:22

I guess Russians wanted the attack on Kiev to be a diversion for their main thrust from East and South...
Since Ukraine was expecting attacks from East and South, they would have fortified those positions...
Russians would have gambled that attack on Kiev would lead to Ukraine withdrawing some forces from East & South and Russia would then push to occupy those areas...
But I guess Ukrainians didn't take the bait...

Due to this, Russians had to fight more on the East and South...
Since thrust towards Kiev was only a diversionary tactic which didn't work out as planned, they're probably sending in more troops as Plan B now...
Whether this renewed thrust is also a diversionary tactic or they were actually planning to take down the Govt. is to be seen...
-
And Russians wouldn't have expected that Ukrainians would put the lives of civilians at risk... Ukrainians not only armed the civilians but new reports coming up that they're releasing convicts with combat experience and arming them...
-
These two issues would have slowed down the Russians a bit... They're probably restrategizing as we speak...

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 28 Feb 2022 23:23

kit wrote:https://twitter.com/MrityunjayRagh2/sta ... 3697692675

Audio message from an indian student at the Uk-Polish border on how the Ukranian armed forces are torturing the poor kids ! If that is not racist what is

Has the Indian foreign ministry followed up on this matter?

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 28 Feb 2022 23:28

The Yukrainian ambassador to India has this to say:

Ukrainian ambassador asked about complaints of Indian students. He responds

After multiple questions to seek assurances from Ukraine on the safety of the Indian students, an exasperated Ukrainian ambassador Igor Polikha said: “The main assurances should be given by (Russian President Vladimir) Putin to the Indian students.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin alone can give assurances for their safety, Ukrainian ambassador Igor Polikha said on Monday.

Brushing aside reports of mistreatment and discrimination against Indians trying to flee the war-torn country, Polikha emphasised the need for discipline and calm at the border checkpoints to ensure the orderly exit of all foreigners.

I can assure that the Ukrainian side is helpful to everyone who is trying to leave the territory

Hmmm...what's the word that I am looking for that would aptly describe this a**hole?

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 53025.html

LakshmanPST · Post by **LakshmanPST** » 28 Feb 2022 23:40

chetak wrote:Elon Musk's Starlink broadband service is now active in ukraine.

the spin and the tailored narratives continue unabated

Wondering if Russia will bring down some of the satellites with their ASAT weapons...

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 28 Feb 2022 23:56

anupmisra wrote:....Brushing aside reports of mistreatment and discrimination against Indians trying to flee the war-torn country, Polikha emphasised the need for discipline and calm at the border checkpoints to ensure the orderly exit of all foreigners.

Hmmm...what's the word that I am looking for that would aptly describe this a**hole?
....

Some choice hindi words immediately spring to mind... but using the words which they understand he can be described a racially bigoted white supremacist..

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 01 Mar 2022 00:20

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-releas ... ky-1683175

Releasing prisoners to send to the war front. One, Ukraine is making a propagandu mistake, Russian should be all over this. So now we have criminals authorised to run around with Javelins?

Two, much more importantly, why is Zelnikiy doing this? Manpower issues? What can we read here?

anupmisra wrote: Hmmm...what's the word that I am looking for that would aptly describe this a**hole?h

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 53025.html

In a perfect world it would be “asylum seeker” after Putin settles his hash, but alas..

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 01 Mar 2022 00:29

PM Modi has approved sending of humanitarian aid to Ukraine in cabinet meeting today. Hindustan Times reports.

So someone who has spoken to Putin after the start of the invasion thinks Ukraine is gonna need it. Tells us a lot more than what MSM and SM can ever tell us.

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 01 Mar 2022 00:35

Apparently EU diplomatic sources, Western intelligence believes that Ukr figures of Russian casualties & injured are correct i.e. around 4500 including injured & KIA.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 01 Mar 2022 00:39

Tanaji wrote:The Russian advance is not going well, but its not a lost cause either. What is a lost cause is the info war: the West have been utterly successful in pushing the narrative that the Ukrainians are poor innocent brave fighters standing up to Russia against all odds. Be it the fiction of the Mig 29 pilot or the Snake island fighters or the flying suit guy who apparently shot down 3 planes… any fiction is being peddled as the truth. BBC is peddling 5000 dead before zero cross checking.

GoI would do well to understand the information perception dominance that will be required. Sadly we will be not only playing on a pitch owned by the enemy (Twitter and YouTube) but also where some of “our” players will be playing for the opposing team

This should be one of the bigger takeaways for India from this war. In case of an Indo-China conflict we'll have it much worse in the propaganda department than the Russians do now for two reasons. First being that our population is far more accessible for external propaganda. And second, we'll have internal propaganda against our own country from major sections of the media and political parties. Russians don't have to deal with that at all since all they have internally is state sponsored media which will keep tight control on what their own citizens get to see. And they'll probably restrict access to western media and SM websites as well.

Keeping the morale of the citizens up during a war is important. We have to be prepared for our enemies to target this aspect compounded with our politicians and their media lapdogs who cannot look beyond their own political one-upmanship games over the government in power even when the defence of the realm is at stake. We already saw this aspect during Balakot.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 01 Mar 2022 00:47

zynda: Apparently EU diplomatic sources, Western intelligence believes that Ukr figures of Russian casualties & injured are correct i.e. around 4500 including injured & KIA.

So the "west" fact-checked their own propaganda and found it true. What a blessed world we live in.

You would think with all the gloating going on, the media would be filled with drone-based images of this Russian defeat. Instead, we have some neo-nazi clown in US or EU tell of us to trust the great white race, which always works for the betterment of all humankind, as we have seen for the past few centuries/millenia.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 01 Mar 2022 00:48

Now that Russia-Chinese axis is really beginning to solidify, and with Paki trying to court Moscow's favor, is there an opportunity for India? If India agrees to remain strictly neutral in the wars to come, in exchange, China could put Pakistan on good behavior (end all terrorist activities against India), and do the same with the Taliban. The Chinese would like to run pipelines and do business in Pak anyways, and they need to extract natural resources from Afghanistan, so its now in China's interest to turn off the jihad industry in both Pak and Afghanistan. IOW, China could actually neutralize the Pakis and Talibunnies so they're no longer a security threat to India. If Pak is playing nice with Russia, this makes me think Russia wants this outcome also.

Picture India no longer threatened by Islamic terrorism emanating from Pakistan and Afghanistan, for the first time in over 40 years.

In exchange for India remaining neutral and agreeing not to attack China when they go to war over Taiwan or the SE Pacific, China agrees to keep its hands off Nepal and backs down on the NE border. Also China agrees not to put military assets in Sri Lanka.

IOW, China-Russia-Pak axis agrees to stay out of our neighborhood in exchange for Indian neutrality. I wouldn't have thought such a bargain was even possible a few weeks ago, but the world is changing fast...

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 01 Mar 2022 01:06

As an aside, the Turks are getting a ton of positive publicity for their Bayraktar TB2 drones. Not just social median fanboys but also soldiers on the ground (if translations of video footage are to be believed).

Edit: and while we’re at it this is a current AFP tweet.

Turkey blocks military ships from Bosphorus, Dardanelles: Minister AFP

It’s been a demand of Ukraine’s for a while. Targeting Russian ships. Turkey also upping the stakes.

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 01 Mar 2022 01:28

Cyrano wrote:PM Modi has approved sending of humanitarian aid to Ukraine in cabinet meeting today. Hindustan Times reports.

I hope this team is packed with Raa agints and special ops to do what ever is good for us. Isn't that what USAID does as well?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 01 Mar 2022 01:35

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... s-updates/ Over 30 km long Russian military convoy surrounds Kiev.
Talks in Belarus have failed.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 01 Mar 2022 01:36

Reportedly intercepted:

The General Staff of Ukraine have warned Zelensky that Russian troops should complete the encirclement of the AFU grouping in the Donbass by tomorrow. After that, it will be divided into 2-3 cauldrons and destroyed https://twitter.com/snekotron/status/14 ... i9qyjXZkMQ

kit · Post by **kit** » 01 Mar 2022 01:58

Remember the woman whose house was allegedly destroyed and posed for the Western media as a victim. Turns out she is an employee of the CIPSO. Centers for Information and Psychological Operations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF)

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 01 Mar 2022 02:46

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/n ... -surrender

A very interesting strategy by the Ukraine govt. Works out to about $250 per soldier. They are after all same people, so money need not necessarily be as important as starting a new life in a democacry. They can always move further west and take up citizenship in one of the EU countries.

Ukraine offers Russian soldiers compensation if they surrender

By: Scripps NationalPosted at 12:21 PM, Feb 28, 2022 and last updated 1:24 PM, Feb 28, 2022
The Minister of Defense of Ukraine is offering money as a peace offering to Russian soldiers.

On Facebook and Twitter, Oleksii Reznikov offered 5 million Russian rubles and full amnesty to soldiers if they, “put down their guns and voluntarily surrender to prison.”

5 million rubles is equivalent to about $47 million USD or 41 million Euros.

All soldiers have to do to surrender to Ukraine is say the word “million”, Reznikov said in a Facebook post.

He promised Russian soldiers that would be able to speak with their families and start a new life if they surrendered.

Reznikov told Ukrainians and Russians that soldiers were turned “into murderers” by the Kremlin.

Global IT leaders reportedly helped fund the compensation for soldiers.

Ukrainian leaders estimate that there are between 149,000 and 200,000 Russian troops in the country.

U.S. intelligence believes ...

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 01 Mar 2022 02:49

Baikul wrote:
Turkey blocks military ships from Bosphorus, Dardanelles: Minister AFP
It’s been a demand of Ukraine’s for a while. Targeting Russian ships. Turkey also upping the stakes.

Since Turkey is in NATO, would Russia take it as casus belli by NATO itself? Then can it invade one of the Baltics? The southern most one.

kit · Post by **kit** » 01 Mar 2022 02:50

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 879248.cms

Even as the Indian government ramped up its evacuation efforts and the foreign secretary called the Ukrainian ambassador to emphasise India's concern for citizens trapped in the war zone, several medical students alleged that they were harassed at checkpoints on Ukraine's border with Poland. The students said they were kept in an almost hostage-like situation in the freezing cold and denied food, water, shelter or safe passage. They claimed that the border guards were abusing them because of India abstaining on a UNSC resolution against the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The students shared videos of soldiers firing warning shots and using force to disperse them. In another clip, a Ukrainian guard was seen shoving away an Indian girl who fell on his feet and begged him to allow her to make the border crossing. Several students said Ukrainian residents have also turned hostile against them.
The war in Ukraine has sent Indian students studying in various universities there on a headlong flight to safety, but thousands of them have been left stranded on the border with Poland. They fled by train, car or bus, while some walked many miles through the night to reach the fenced-off border crossings, joining lines of tens of thousands of people desperate to escape the war.

Medical student Rangoli Raj of Delhi said over the phone that they were stopped at a checkpoint by Ukrainian border guards and asked to play a "hunter game". "They said if we win, they will let us through. If we don't, we will have to stay back. When we refused, the cops tortured an Indian student. He has asthma. Ukrainian cops said all of us would be tortured if we didn't follow their orders," she said.

She said they reached the border at 12pm and were stopped, though vehicles were moving in and out. "We waited there in -5°C till 10am the next day, but were not allowed to cross the border."

At the Romanian border, Deepika Saini from Hisar said she walked several miles with swollen legs to reach a checkpoint, but couldn't make the crossing as the guards were demanding bribes. She said about 600 medical students were trapped on the Ukraine-Romania border.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 01 Mar 2022 02:54

LakshmanPST wrote:Due to this, Russians had to fight more on the East and South...

If Russians take Odesa, the only port in Ukraine, then sea supply lines to Ukraine will be closed. It is important that Russians take Odesa at least. Kyiv might have to wait. Uk govt. is pinned. They can't move one way or the other.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 01 Mar 2022 03:03

Vayutuvan wrote:
Baikul wrote:

It’s been a demand of Ukraine’s for a while. Targeting Russian ships. Turkey also upping the stakes.
Since Turkey is in NATO, would Russia take it as casus belli by NATO itself? Then can it invade one of the Baltics? The southern most one.

Turkey can block military ships by Montreux Convention

achy · Post by **achy** » 01 Mar 2022 03:44

Russia's total exports are around 480B and import is around 250B ( 2019 data) ....Russia‘s Top Five Trading Partners were responsible for 86.9% of all trade with China 115B, Germany 50B, Netherland 37, US 29 and Turkey 26B... Its main export is fuel and energy comprising 54% and metals 11% of total export.. Basically, sanctions have left 65% of Russian export out of its ambit.

Even for others , Russia can just re-route massively thru China.

source : https://www.russia-briefing.com/news/ru ... ntry.html/

The bear has also gotten fat in last two decades using trade surplus of almost 200B/year. I think Russia is very well prepared to weather the western sanction and folks basing their strategy on some sort of internal coup to remove putin due to economic hardship will be very disappointed. Russia has dug in for a long haul and will not stop till complete demilitarization of Ukraine and may be integrating Ukraine within Russia.

Only bad thing out of all this will be that Russia will be completely dependent on China for foreseeable future. Offocourse, India can do few things like taking up stakes in oil and gas fields being vacated by BP, Shell, etc.

kit · Post by **kit** » 01 Mar 2022 03:45

Vayutuvan wrote:
Baikul wrote:

It’s been a demand of Ukraine’s for a while. Targeting Russian ships. Turkey also upping the stakes.
Since Turkey is in NATO, would Russia take it as casus belli by NATO itself? Then can it invade one of the Baltics? The southern most one.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 022-02-27/

NATO member Turkey changed its rhetoric to call Russia's assault on Ukraine a "war" on Sunday and pledged to implement parts of an international pact that would potentially limit the transit of Russian warships from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea.

Yet Cavusoglu reiterated that Turkey cannot block all Russian warships accessing the Black Sea due to a clause in the pact exempting those returning to their registered base.

"There should not be any abuse of this exemption. Ships that declare returning to their bases and passing through the straits should not be involved in the war," Cavusoglu said.

anishns · Post by **anishns** » 01 Mar 2022 04:06

Anyone know if there are any chinese also in a similar situation trying to cross the border. I wonder how the Ukrainian's are treating them.
I think these students would have a better chance to just cross the border into Russia

kit wrote:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 879248.cms

Even as the Indian government </snip.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 01 Mar 2022 04:17

Why didn't the Ukrainians take the peace deal? Don't they feel the pain yet? Or do they still think tide will turn and they will get help? Or are they waiting for Russia to implode or putin removed? Why are they holding out?

anishns · Post by **anishns** » 01 Mar 2022 04:22

They probably are hoping to get a huge cache of weapons from the west and also planning to hold out against the invading forces by using civilians and foreigners as hostages.

Pathik · Post by **Pathik** » 01 Mar 2022 04:37

anishns wrote:Anyone know if there are any chinese also in a similar situation trying to cross the border. I wonder how the Ukrainian's are treating them.
I think these students would have a better chance to just cross the border into Russia

kit wrote:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 879248.cms

Even as the Indian government </snip.

May be in the present scenario that sounds apt but don't be fooled that Roosis are less racist than Yukrainians

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Mar 2022 04:39

This nura kusthi will go on for a month or so till there are reciprocal moves by Ukraine and Russia to de-escalate.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Mar 2022 04:42

achy wrote: Only bad thing out of all this will be that Russia will be completely dependent on China for foreseeable future. Of course, India can do few things like taking up stakes in oil and gas fields being vacated by BP, Shell, etc.

Precisely why the West will nudge for de-escalation.

sohamn · Post by **sohamn** » 01 Mar 2022 04:44

anishns wrote:They probably are hoping to get a huge cache of weapons from the west and also planning to hold out against the invading forces by using civilians and foreigners as hostages.

Ukrainians, though losing tactically everyday, smell a strategic victory. Putin overplayed his hand, he should have stopped at Donetsk and forced Ukrainian's to the bargaining table and declared victory. But now, I feel he would get bogged down in Ukraine and sanctions would start hurting him seriously soon. His only way out is to sell out to China completely else Russia will face years of shrinking economy.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 01 Mar 2022 05:20

western "human rights" kangaroo courts on "war crimes in Ukraine" have started

https://twitter.com/i/events/1483255084750282753

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 01 Mar 2022 06:15

Another perspective on the Russian ops

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498 ... 40167.html

Ominous signs as a su 34 was involved today. Not sure what zellensky is thinking egged on by his cheerleaders. Did he not watch the war in Syria ?

Unfortunately the worst is yet to come

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 01 Mar 2022 06:41

https://warontherocks.com/2022/02/what- ... s-control/

WHAT WOULD RUSSIA’S BREAK WITH THE WEST MEAN FOR NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL?
HANNA NOTTE AND SARAH BIDGOOD FEBRUARY 14, 2022

The consequences of a Russian military escalation against Ukraine could well be catastrophic from an arms-control perspective. While Washington would probably find it extremely difficult to continue its Strategic Stability Dialogue with Moscow — commenced last summer in the wake of the U.S.-Russian presidential summit — the deleterious impact on global nonproliferation efforts would not likely be confined to the two countries’ bilateral agenda, should there be a war. And even if military escalation can be avoided, protracted tensions between Russia and the West are set to further frustrate efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons across the board.
...

Ten days later, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the US and Russian diplomats are still working together to get Iran to soign the new nuclear deal. This was reported on Fox NN as well as reported elsewhere.

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/20 ... a-showdown

The Takeaway: Iran nuclear talks so far unaffected by US-Russia showdown

February 24, 2022 —
Hot take 1 from Vienna: Kani returns to Tehran for sign off on ‘last mile’ of negotiations

Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, Ali Bageri Kani, is leaving Vienna for Iran for what might be the final sign-off on a deal which would restore the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Iran has been negotiating in the Austrian capital with the other JCPOA signatories — the UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China — and indirectly the United States, which withdrew from the deal in May 2018.

"We are in the last mile," reports Ali Hashem from Vienna. "The mood here and in Tehran has been mostly optimistic that a deal is within reach, with details over the sequencing of sanctions relief and Iranian nuclear compliance quite advanced, given the back and forth on the drafts. The prisoner exchange also seems part of the package, albeit via a separate channel."

Hashem elaborates, “There are major breakthroughs that logically makes a breakdown unlikely, and now is probably the time for Iranian officials to assess and see whether the bargain pays. Kani needs to be clear on the red lines before signing off.”

Hashem adds that it is unclear what impact, if any, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions in Ukraine may have on the Iranian negotiating stance.

Hot take 2: Russia so far not linking Iran deal to US posture on Ukraine

While the Biden administration has slapped Russia with an array of sanctions for its actions in Eastern Ukraine, the US and Russia remain mostly aligned in pressing ahead to close an Iran nuclear deal in Vienna.

"Moscow wants to restore the JCPOA. And Russia is good at compartmentalization when it decides to do so," says Samuel Charap, senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. "Therefore, I don’t expect the Ukraine events to change Russian policy on the JCPOA."

"On other issues where Russia sees itself as doing the US a favor, we can expect negative linkage. But not this one," adds Charap.
...

krithivas · Post by **krithivas** » 01 Mar 2022 07:21

There was this question as to how Ukraine treats other immigrants, Here is a snapshot:
African immigrants were pushed off trains and showed badly while they were fleeing Ukraine (by Ukrainians of course).
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/af ... entnewsntp

m_saini · Post by **m_saini** » 01 Mar 2022 08:41

Okay I think this is one step too far.

Vladimir Putin's Black Belt Revoked by International Taekwondo Organization

World Taekwondo—labeled as the International Federation that governs the sport and is a member of the Association of Summer Olympic International Federations and International Paralympic Committee—announced it had revoked Putin's honorary 9th dan black belt that was given to him in November 2013.