Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

[CalvinH]

As an aside, the Turks are getting a ton of positive publicity for their Bayraktar TB2 drones. Not just social median fanboys but also soldiers on the ground (if translations of video footage are to be believed)…..

And now there’s even a song about the drone

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVide ... ame=iossmf

The larger point is the reputational boost to the Turkish arms industry and specifically its drones program.

I read in a Twitter feed that they proved useless against Russians. Didn’t pursue this further but given a total absence of chest beating in first few days I assumed the usual.

[John]

^ TB-2 have been fairly useful so far they have claimed atleast kill of 3 Buk air defense systems, numerous fuel tankers, transport trucks and apc . But lot of convoy hits are attributed to TB-2 but in fact done by UKR Su-25s/Mi-24 and good old fashioned rpg squad.

[Kati]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/busi ... ket-newtab

Why the Chinese Internet Is Cheering Russia’s Invasion

As the world overwhelmingly condemns the assault on Ukraine, online opinion in China is mostly pro-Russia, pro-war and pro-Putin.

A bombed Ukrainian home in south Kyiv. Many Chinese social media users have praised President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and accepted his justification for invading Ukraine.
A bombed Ukrainian home in south Kyiv. Many Chinese social media users have praised President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and accepted his justification for invading Ukraine.
A bombed Ukrainian home in south Kyiv. Many Chinese social media users have praised President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and accepted his justification for invading Ukraine.Credit...Lynsey Addario for The New York Times
Li Yuan

By Li Yuan
Published Feb. 27, 2022Updated Feb. 28, 2022
阅读简体中文版閱讀繁體中文版
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If President Vladimir V. Putin is looking for international support and approval for his invasion of Ukraine, he can turn to the Chinese internet.

Its users have called him “Putin the Great,” “the best legacy of the former Soviet Union” and “the greatest strategist of this century.” They have chastised Russians who protested against the war, saying they had been brainwashed by the United States.

Mr. Putin’s speech on Thursday, which essentially portrayed the conflict as one waged against the West, won loud cheers on Chinese social media. Many people said they were moved to tears. “If I were Russian, Putin would be my faith, my light,” wrote @jinyujiyiliangxiaokou, a user of the Twitter-like platform Weibo.

As the world overwhelmingly condemns Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Chinese internet, for the most part, is pro-Russia, pro-war and pro-Putin.

Mr. Putin’s portrayal of Russia as a victim of the West’s political, ideological and military aggression has resonated deeply with many on social media. It dovetails with China’s narrative that the United States and its allies are afraid of China’s rise and the alternative world order it could create.

For its part, the Chinese government, Russia’s most powerful partner, has been more circumspect. Officials have declined to call Russia’s invasion an invasion, nor have they condemned it. But they have not endorsed it, either.

Under Xi Jinping, its top leader, China has taken a more confrontational stance on foreign policy in recent years. Its diplomats, the state media’s journalists and some of the government’s most influential advisers are far more hawkish than they used to be.

Together, they have helped to shape a generation of online warriors who view the world as a zero-sum game between China and the West, especially the United States.

A translation of Mr. Putin’s speech on Thursday by a nationalistic news site went viral, to say the least. The Weibo hashtag #putin10000wordsspeechfulltext got 1.1 billion views within 24 hours.
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“This is an exemplary speech of war mobilization,” said one Weibo user, @apjam.

“Why was I moved to tears by the speech?” wrote @ASsicangyueliang. “Because this is also how they’ve been treating China.”
Mr. Putin with Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, in Moscow in 2019. They said this month that their countries’ friendship had “no limits.”
Image
Mr. Putin with Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, in Moscow in 2019. They said this month that their countries’ friendship had “no limits.”
Mr. Putin with Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, in Moscow in 2019. They said this month that their countries’ friendship had “no limits.”Credit...Sputnik/Reuters

Mostly young, nationalistic online users like these, known as “little pinks” in China, have taken their cue from the so-called “wolf warrior” diplomats who seem to relish verbal battle with journalists and their Western counterparts.

The day before Russia’s invasion, for instance, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said in a daily press briefing that the United States was the “culprit” behind the tensions over Ukraine.

“When the U.S. drove five waves of NATO expansion eastward all the way to Russia’s doorstep and deployed advanced offensive strategic weapons in breach of its assurances to Russia, did it ever think about the consequences of pushing a big country to the wall?” asked the spokeswoman, Hua Chunying.

The next day, as Ms. Hua was peppered with questions about whether China considered Russia’s “special military operation” an invasion, she turned the briefing into a critique of the United States. “You may go ask the U.S.: they started the fire and fanned the flames,” she said. “How are they going to put out the fire now?”

She bristled at the U.S. State Department’s comment that China should respect state sovereignty and territorial integrity, a longstanding tenet of Chinese foreign policy.

“The U.S. is in no position to tell China off,” she said. Then she mentioned the three journalists who were killed in NATO’s bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade in 1999, a tragic incident that prompted widespread anti-U.S. protests in China.

“NATO still owes the Chinese people a debt of blood,” she said.

That sentence became the top Weibo hashtag as Russia was bombing Ukraine. The hashtag, created by the state-run People’s Daily newspaper, has been viewed more than a billion times. In posts below it, users called the United States a “warmonger” and a “paper tiger.”

Other Weibo users were bemused. “If I only browsed Weibo,” wrote the user @____26156, “I would have believed that it was the United States that had invaded Ukraine.”

The strong pro-war sentiment online has shocked many Chinese. Some WeChat users on my timeline warned that they would block any Putin supporters. Many people shared articles about China’s long, troubled history with its neighbor, including Russian annexation of Chinese territory and a border conflict with the Soviet Union in the late 1960s.

One widely shared WeChat article was titled, “All those who cheer for war are idiots,” plus an expletive. “The grand narrative of nationalism and great-power chauvinism has squeezed out their last bit of humanity,” the author wrote.

It was eventually deleted by WeChat for violating regulations.
Hua Chunying, a spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said the United States “started the fire and fanned the flames” that led to the war in Ukraine.
Image
Hua Chunying, a spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said the United States “started the fire and fanned the flames” that led to the war in Ukraine.
Hua Chunying, a spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said the United States “started the fire and fanned the flames” that led to the war in Ukraine.Credit...Carlos Garcia Rawlins/Reuters

The pro-Russia sentiment is in line with the two countries’ growing official solidarity, culminating in a joint statement on Feb. 4, when Mr. Putin met with Mr. Xi in Beijing at the Winter Olympics.

The countries’ friendship has “no limits,” they declared.

Given that the leaders met just weeks before the invasion, it would be understandable to conclude that China should have had better knowledge of the Kremlin’s plans. But growing evidence suggests that the echo chamber of China’s foreign policy establishment might have misled not only the country’s internet users, but its own officials.

My colleague Edward Wong reported that over a period of three months, senior U.S. officials held meetings with their Chinese counterparts and shared intelligence that detailed Russia’s troop buildup around Ukraine. The Americans asked the Chinese officials to intervene with the Russians and tell them not to invade.
Russia’s Attack on Ukraine and the Global Economy
Card 1 of 6

A rising concern. Russia’s attack on Ukraine could cause dizzying spikes in prices for energy and food and could spook investors. The economic damage from supply disruptions and economic sanctions would be severe in some countries and industries and unnoticed in others.

The cost of energy. Oil prices already are the highest since 2014, and they have risen as the conflict has escalated. Russia is the third-largest producer of oil, providing roughly one of every 10 barrels the global economy consumes.

Gas supplies. Europe gets nearly 40 percent of its natural gas from Russia, and it is likely to be walloped with higher heating bills. Natural gas reserves are running low, and European leaders have accused Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, of reducing supplies to gain a political edge.

Food prices. Russia is the world’s largest supplier of wheat and, together with Ukraine, accounts for nearly a quarter of total global exports. In countries like Egypt and Turkey, that flow of grain makes up more than 70 percent of wheat imports.

Shortages of essential metals. The price of palladium, used in automotive exhaust systems and mobile phones, has been soaring amid fears that Russia, the world’s largest exporter of the metal, could be cut off from global markets. The price of nickel, another key Russian export, has also been rising.

Financial turmoil. Global banks are bracing for the effects of sanctions designed to restrict Russia’s access to foreign capital and limit its ability to process payments in dollars, euros and other currencies crucial for trade. Banks are also on alert for retaliatory cyberattacks by Russia.

The Chinese brushed the Americans off, saying that they did not think an invasion was in the works. U.S. intelligence showed that on one occasion, Beijing shared the Americans’ information with Moscow.

Recent speeches by some of China’s most influential advisers to the government on international relations suggest that the miscalculation may have been based on deep distrust of the United States. They saw it as a declining power that wanted to push for war with false intelligence because it would benefit the United States, financially and strategically.

Jin Canrong, a professor at Renmin University in Beijing, told the state broadcaster China Central Television, or CCTV, on Feb. 20 that the U.S. government had been talking about imminent war because an unstable Europe would help Washington, as well as the country’s financial and energy industries. After the war started, he admitted to his 2.4 million Weibo followers that he was surprised.

Just before the invasion, Shen Yi, a professor at Fudan University in Shanghai, ridiculed the Biden administration’s predictions of war in a 52-minute video program. “Why did ‘Sleepy Joe’ use such poor-quality intelligence on Ukraine and Russia?” he asked, using Donald Trump’s favorite nickname for President Biden.

Earlier in the week, Mr. Shen had held a conference call about the Ukraine crisis with a brokerage’s clients, titled, “A war that would not be fought.”

When the fighting began, he, too, acknowledged to his Weibo followers, who number 1.6 million, that he had been wrong.

Nationalistic emotions on social media were also sparked by the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine. Unlike most embassies in Kyiv, it didn’t urge its citizens to evacuate. Hours into the war, it advised Chinese people to post the country’s red flag conspicuously on their vehicles when traveling, indicating that it would provide protection.

The state-owned People’s Daily, CCTV and many top government agencies posted about that on Weibo. Many people used the hashtag #theChineseredwillprotectyou, referring to the flag.

The idea echoed a movie, the 2017 Chinese blockbuster “Wolf Warrior 2,” which ends with the hero taking fellow passengers safely through a war zone in Africa as he holds a Chinese flag high. “It’s Chinese,” an armed fighter says. “Hold your fire.”

Two days later, the embassy reversed course, urging Chinese citizens not to display anything that would disclose their identity. Chinese people living in Ukraine advised fellow citizens not to make comments on social media that could jeopardize their security.

As the war drags on, and especially if Beijing calibrates its position in the face of an international backlash, the online pro-Russia sentiment in China could ebb. In the meantime, other internet users are getting impatient with the nationalists.

“Putin should enlist the Chinese little pinks and send them to the frontline,” wrote the Weibo user @xinshuiqingliu. “They’re his die-hard fans and extremely brave fighters.”

[Atmavik]

^^ they were absent in the first few days but a few videos have surfaced of drone strikes on the russian convoys. ironically one of them targets a mobile SAM carrier. these drones do provide value. how much is questionable.

https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/14 ... he-russian

[Atmavik]

Kherson in the south has fallen

https://twitter.com/truth_about_war/sta ... he-russian

[John]

^^ they were absent in the first few days but a few videos have surfaced of drone strikes on the russian convoys. ironically one of them targets a mobile SAM carrier. these drones do provide value. how much is questionable.

https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/14 ... he-russian

I think those attacks were kept under wrap to prevent RuAF from
shooting them down, even the videos they release now are dated.

[Kati]

Latest:
U.S. bans Russian aircraft from American airspace

[Pratyush]

Except that, unlike Shakti, this weapon can be used multiple times

Not quite.

Unless the actions are quickly reversed by the west. It creates an insentive for India, Russia and PRC to create a strong alternative to the west backed systems.

[KL Dubey]

Genuine question, India is the back office of the world. Can they sanction India and keep the buinesses running?

This is getting a little OT, but India is already moving on three key fronts:

- Indigenous MIC and massive buildup of strategic weapons/defense platforms/infrastructure
- Energy independence from oil and gas...Renewable grid power and electrification of road and rail transport
- Independence in strategic industries (semiconductors, pharma, aerospace)

A lot more work still needed in other important areas like:

- Cyberwarfare and AI
- India-based global media and social media platforms
- Independence in aviation, marine, and trucking fuels (biofuels are needed, since indigenous oil and gas production is not enough)

In any case, it is IMO not possible for anyone to effectively "sanction" India if we become the 2nd or 3rd largest economy in both exchange rate and PPP terms.

And yes, even today India is indeed the "back office" of the world, and also sits astride major shipping lanes.

[KL Dubey]

People seem to be watching a lot of western media outlets.

FYI Republic TV is providing quite impressive coverage. Goswami has reporters on the ground in Ukr and surrounding countries. His debates and other coverage feature many eminent participants from Ukr, Rus, and other places.

Perhaps the first global Indian media house. This should be supported by all of us.

[Kati]

On airspace closure due to the Ukraine conflict:
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 022-02-28/


I wonder how the western cos will recover billions of $$ leasing fees from the RU carriers.

[S_Madhukar]

I am a bit surprised how quickly all these economic sanctions are materialising. Fine they are a few billions for a company like BP or Shell which in the larger scheme of things isn’t that big but a lot of smaller companies must have been impacted as well. Has all the $ printed recently being put to use here or the stock market was so overvalued already that these things can be easily brushed aside. Almost feels like there was already a checklist of things to be done if a situation like this arose, I wonder if they have a similar one for other countries as well since it is usually Unkil that sanctions them

[williams]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/19/uk ... illusions/

Dated, but refreshing analysis of the conflict.

Here are some relevant quotes:

Indeed, opponents of enlargement were quick to warn that Russia would inevitably regard NATO enlargement as a threat and going ahead with it would poison relations with Moscow. That is why several prominent U.S. experts—including diplomat George Kennan, author Michael Mandelbaum, and former defense secretary William Perry—opposed enlargement from the start.

Although Moscow had little choice but to acquiesce to the admission of Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic into NATO, Russian concerns grew as enlargement continued.

Russia’s doubts increased when the United States invaded Iraq in 2003—a decision that showed a certain willful disregard for international law—and even more after the Obama administration exceeded the authority of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973 and helped oust Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi in 2011.

Had U.S. policymakers reflected on their own country’s history and geographic sensitivities, they would have understood how enlargement appeared to their Russian counterparts. As journalist Peter Beinart recently noted, the United States has repeatedly declared the Western Hemisphere to be off-limits to other great powers and has threatened or used force on numerous occasions to make that declaration stick. During the Cold War, for example, the Reagan administration was so alarmed by the revolution in Nicaragua (a country whose population was smaller than New York City’s) that it organized a rebel army to overthrow the ruling socialist Sandinistas. If Americans could worry that much about a tiny country like Nicaragua, why was it so hard to understand why Russia might have some serious misgivings about the steady movement of the world’s mightiest alliance toward its borders?

The next misstep was the Bush administration’s decision to nominate Georgia and Ukraine for NATO membership at the 2008 Bucharest Summit. Former U.S. National Security Council official Fiona Hill recently revealed that the U.S. intelligence community opposed this step but then-U.S. President George W. Bush ignored its objections for reasons that have never been fully explained.

The next round came in 2013 and 2014. With Ukraine’s economy staggering, then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych encouraged a bidding war between the European Union and Russia for economic help. His subsequent decision to reject an accession agreement negotiated with the EU and accept a more lucrative offer from Russia triggered the Euromaidan protests that ultimately led to his ousting. U.S. officials tilted visibly in favor of the protesters and participated actively in the effort to pick Yanukovych’s successor, thereby lending credence to Russian fears that this was a Western-sponsored color revolution. Remarkably, officials in Europe and the United States never seemed to have asked themselves whether Russia might object to this outcome or what it might do to derail it. As a result, they were blindsided when Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the seizure of Crimea and backed Russian-speaking separatist movements in Ukraine’s eastern provinces, plunging the country into a frozen conflict that persists to this day

But Putin is not solely responsible for the ongoing crisis over Ukraine, and moral outrage over his actions or character is not a strategy. Nor are more and tougher sanctions likely to cause him to surrender to Western demands. Unpleasant as it may be, the United States and its allies need to recognize that Ukraine’s geopolitical alignment is a vital interest for Russia—one it is willing to use force to defend—and this is not because Putin happens to be a ruthless autocrat with a nostalgic fondness for the old Soviet past. Great powers are never indifferent to the geostrategic forces arrayed on their borders, and Russia would care deeply about Ukraine’s political alignment even if someone else were in charge. U.S. and European unwillingness to accept this basic reality is a major reason the world is in this mess today.

[Atmavik]

looks like Indigo airlines is also helping out in Op Ganga rescue

[Kati]

Indian carriers, as well as other Asian carriers will have a bonanza as the western carriers are at the cross-hair of this conflict.

[Atmavik]

Indian carriers, as well as other Asian carriers will have a bonanza as the western carriers are at the cross-hair of this conflict.

Flights from Europe to east Asia will be effected the most

[Kati]

Kadyrov confirms Chechen casualties
The leader of Chechnya urged Ukrainian soldiers to defect and fight “side by side” with the Russians
Kadyrov confirms Chechen casualties
Soldiers assembled in Grozny in Russia’s Chechen Republic, February 25, 2022. © Chechen Republic Press Service.
From RT.com

The head of the Chechen Republic has confirmed casualties among the region's soldiers fighting in Ukraine.

Two soldiers from Chechnya have been killed and six were wounded, Ramzan Kadyrov wrote on social media on Tuesday, without elaborating. He claimed that the fallen troops “had an order to minimize civilian casualties in Ukraine, which they did.”

Kadyrov also urged Ukrainian soldiers to defect and fight “side by side” with the advancing Russian forces.
Missile damages government building in Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city (VIDEO)
Read more
Missile damages government building in Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city (VIDEO)

The heads of the Dagestan and Kalmykia Republics of Russia have each confirmed the deaths of one soldier from each region.

Russia invaded the neighboring country last week, arguing that it was defending the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, which broke off from Ukraine following the 2014 Maidan. Kiev insists the attack was entirely unprovoked and has rallied the international community for help.

The Defense Ministry first acknowledged that an undisclosed number of Russian soldiers were killed or taken prisoner on Sunday – the fourth day of the invasion.

Many countries, including the US, UK, and EU member states, have imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia.

Russians and Ukrainians held the first round of peace talks in Belarus on Monday, without tangible results.

[Kati]

cnn.com

Mexico's president says he will not impose sanctions on Russia

From Karol Suarez in Mexico City

Mexico will not impose economic sanctions on Russia, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said in a daily news conference on Tuesday morning.

“We’re not going to take any kind of economic reprisal because we want to have good relations with all the governments in the world, and we want to be able to talk with the parties in conflict,” López Obrador said after he was asked about his stance on the matter.

“We do not consider that it corresponds to us, and we think that the best thing is to promote dialogue to achieve peace,” he said.

López Obrador also criticized the “censorship” of Russian state media, after social media companies announced they would take action to limit the reach of Russian-backed news channel RT.

"I don't agree that there is censorship in the media; I spoke out against it when President Trump's account was canceled, as I also do not agree with the fact that the media, from Russia or any other country, are censored," he said.

[nits]

There is no news of use of S-400 or kill via s-400 in Russia - ukraine conflict... is it they don't need them due to Air Superiority they enjoy due to depleted strength of UAF or its already in use but not in news

[RajaRudra]

I think world had walked into a euro war knowing or unknowingly. The last two world wars are essentially euro wars with just the wings played out in the other parts of the world.

One month down the line , Still if the war continues, every country including India and China will/may be forced to choose sides.

That also means, several doors will be closed and several will open based on the choices and chances we make.

Personally, If China goes for Taiwan. We should go for POK, Gilgit Baltistan and significant fertile Pakistan Punjab sans the population. Should also encourage Baluchistan independence and Afghan redrawing maps.

IT Service/ Banking Service / BPO / KPO may be the first casualty.

[ramana]

People seem to be watching a lot of western media outlets.

FYI Republic TV is providing quite impressive coverage. Goswami has reporters on the ground in Ukr and surrounding countries. His debates and other coverage feature many eminent participants from Ukr, Rus, and other places.

Perhaps the first global Indian media house. This should be supported by all of us.

In one segment a Portugal expert after complaining about Arnab style made significant remarks about US knee on Western Europe.
I didn't get his name in the din!

[ramana]

Deans,
Wha missiles the Russians are using? And warheads?

So far we have seen Klub, Kh-101 (not confirmed), Isklander-M/K, Tochka, Kh-31p, Grad and TOR.

Thanks. What about warheads?

[ramana]

People seem to be watching a lot of western media outlets.

FYI Republic TV is providing quite impressive coverage. Goswami has reporters on the ground in Ukr and surrounding countries. His debates and other coverage feature many eminent participants from Ukr, Rus, and other places.

Perhaps the first global Indian media house. This should be supported by all of us.

In one segment a Portugal expert after complaining about Arnab style made significant remarks about US knee on Western Europe.
I didn't get his name in the din!

His name is Gilbert Doctorow. Looks like he was on vacation in Lisbon.

https://t.co/c61oLqzXaN

[Neela]

And yes, even today India is indeed the "back office" of the world, and also sits astride major shipping lanes.

An recent anecdote.
Indian Services companies have been in the business for so long that a lot of expertise on software skills and operational skills lie with Indian companies only. When you have so many companies outsourcing to INdia over 2 decades, this is a consequence where talent , when not having opportunities in different geopraphies, dies out and gets concentrated elsewhere.

[Raja]

Western propaganda is not the main reason that Ukr is winning the information warfare. We see this time and time again in conflicts between a relatively free democratic society vs. country run by more authoritarian forces that the latter loses the global information warfare. We have seen that in our own past conflicts against Pakistan and China that the openness of our media can have upsides as well. Ukr has been very tech savvy, dynamic, and organic in its communication, whereas Russian communication is largely monolithic.

The fact that the war is in Europe (even though for most Europeans it is still quite far away) has been a very strong theme and Ukr has smartly made the most use of it. I don't blame them, they have to be creative to fight this war. There are some really smart lessons to be learned from them.

[Pratyush]

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/russia- ... 2022-03-01

So much for Russian xenophobia.

[Thakur_B]

From the situation map, it appears Russians are now well placed to execute pincer movements on several cities

[Pratyush]

It's quite amusing to watch the propaganda of valiant Ukrainian resistance. Yet we see that the more deliberate Russian actions are almost never stopped.

[LakshmanPST]

To all of you either attacking the western powers or supporting Russia...

If India had 2 things: (i) UN veto and (ii) reasonable self-sufficiency in weapons, would your stance be the same?

Why do we need to support a deranged madman in his quest for his empire when it is evident that he is the attacker? What happens between NATO and Russia is none of our business. With what has happened in the past week, you can be sure Ukraine will look westwards in the future.

Having weapons pointed at Moscow right at its doorstep is no different from our own situation where the Chinese and their proxies have weapons pointed at us, right at our doorstep. We are strong enough to take care of this and so will the Russians be, if attacked.

Putin is taking on an enemy that is quite familiar to us---> US Deep State...
I don't think many here want Putin to win because of love for Putin/Russia/Soviet Union... I think they want US Deep State to lose...
Everyone (atleast here) knows how US Deep State works---> brainwashing common ppl, cultivating local assets, subtle and non-subtle propaganda against your leaders, protests, revolutions etc. before installing their puppets by 'democratic' means...
Any leader that cracksdown on these local tools of Deep State will be in deep trouble... This is why not everyone took on them head-on...
While it is true that Putin himself want his own puppet to be installed in Ukraine, the fact that his enemy is our enemy as well is sub-consciously making sone of us biased towards Russia...
----

Biden boasted that the prosecutor was fired, in under 6 hours.
After this any discussion about Ukrainian's independence and sovereignty should be stopped.
Trump got impeached for asking the current Ukrainian president to look into it.

Right, so you send in your army and place your immense nuclear force on high alert because the US president got someone fired in a 3rd country.

Please, whether Ukraine is free or not is Ukraine's business. Peaceful infiltration into Ukrainian politics was always a possibility, which based on understanding of your response was what the West used. If Putin had propped some other populist, bankrolled him/her, caused political turmoil or even a revolution, maybe even jabbed plutonium into someone it would be quite a different thing. No, he decided to send in tanks and artillery. Sorry you lost whatever sympathy I had for the Russians.

Not taking military action against US Deep State assets and regime changes is a rule of the so-called rules base order of the West...
Putin chose to break this rule... He is not agreeing to play the game by the rules of the West...

US Deep State responded militarily against less powerful countries who cracked down on their assets... But Russia is very powerful country military wise and taking them on will bring Nuclear War...
So, West is taking every possible non-military response against Russia...
So, by taking military action, Putin exposed all the non-military responses from West for other countries and leaders effected by US Deep State to take notes... Whether he gamed this response or not only time will tell...

[Deans]

The war is barely 5 days old. In GW2, where the US had an even bigger advantage over the enemy and the logistics position was far simpler, it took the US 3 weeks to reach Baghdad. After the first 4 days of advancing, their operational pause was 1 week long.
The Russian army had advanced on average 60 km /day, (Kiev and Crimea thrusts) which is the maximum their logistics tail will allow. Supply trucks have to move from depots in Russia, to the front of the advancing column, resupply them, then move back to Russia and repeat the process. There is little off road movement possible. There is no evidence of incompetence (yet) in managing the supply chain.
It's probably that they expected some of the Ukr army to collapse, after the first deep (and weakly supported) thrusts. That assumption did not work, so the Russians have gone to plan B. That is understandable.
...

Deans ji,
It could be that Russian Army is having a C4I problem and is not able to coordinate frontline thrust troops and guide them with required degree of granularity, while bringing forward additional infantry battalions and logistics depots to reduce time and risk shuttling longer and longer. Too many simultaneous thrust areas in all directions targeting multiple cities - Ukraine is slightly bigger France, where as US forces had just one target Baghdad city, from wherever they were stationed. Image>> https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... ar-Map.png

This could have been exacerbated due to cultural factors - as in RA commanders unable to clearly tell Putin whats realistically possible and whats not. Fear of the leader which inevitably exists in a dictatorship.

That is quite possible, though I would not like to pass judgement on either side's performance.
I think simultaneous thrusts also stretch the Ukie army, which has a bigger C4I problem, because their HQ's are being attacked and their communications hacked or jammed.

[Deans]

looks like Indigo airlines is also helping out in Op Ganga rescue

The govt can requisition all Indian carriers in an emergency such as this, if they want to. Airlines typically cooperate and work with the govt to revise schedules etc.

[hanumadu]

There might be truth to Putin's claim than Ukraine was formed by Russia. From wiki.

Code: Select all

Ethnic group	1897		1926		1939		1959		1989		2001
Ukrainians		25.9%	38.6%	48.5%	48.4%	50.4%	62.8%
Russians		63.2%	37.2%	32.9%	40.4%	43.6%	33.2%
Jews			5.7%		19.5%	15.6%	8.7%		3.0%		0.7%

Its the same case with Odesa. A decline in Russian population and an increase in Ukranian population over the years

[chetak]

There is no news of use of S-400 or kill via s-400 in Russia - ukraine conflict... is it they don't need them due to Air Superiority they enjoy due to depleted strength of UAF or its already in use but not in news

and this is probably keeping the US/NATO forces on edge, their airforces cautious, and on the ground.

yes, drones are flying for sure as are the repositioned spy satellites closely eyeballing the conflict zone

[hanumadu]

Are the Ukranian soldiers even fighting? In the talk by John Mearsheimer, he showed data where more people in the east Ukraine are pro Russia than in the west.

[nam]

Let's get our priorities clear.

Other than keeping away trouble from Pak & China, we really don't have any major geopolitical objectives. If we have take action for all practical purpose, these 2 countries will strike first and we will respond.

So from our perspective, there is no need for the western countries to sanction us using "war" as an excuse. We need to make money by having BPO & manufacturing. The best way to do this is by being on the frontline against the Chinis...

Once we are 10T and above, we just sit back and watch.. not our problem if the world burns. Our priority is our people, our border, makes allies in the neighborhood and making ourselves rich.

Let US, Russia, Chinis fight among themselves...

[rrao]

India should protest against racial abuses, beating and torture of Indian students by Ukrainian soldiers near borders and not allowing them leave or board trains to neighboring countries !!!The Ukrainian president thinks that he is a holy cow fuxed by Putin !! Indian govt should bring it to the notice of international community which is crying wolf over Russian attack on Ukraine.

[Deans]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAaaXIVCXYw

In Russian, but the map from 1:50 onwards is self explanatory. Situation at 11 am today. Shows what, in the opinion of the analyst, the Russians are trying to do, which is:

1. An encirclement in the Donbass, where about half the Ukr army is. 1 of their units is isolated in the city of Mariupol.
The front was static there yesterday, but this morning the Russians are apparently breaking out to the north and South. If the Ukrainians see
the trap and retreat, they move out of their defensive positions and have the risk of being caught in the open by Russian aircraft.

2. Encirclement of Kiev. The Eastern part of the trust is now 10km from Kiev. The western part (the 40 km column) is now in place, for artillery
to hit the city if required.

3. Threat of a super encirclement, somewhere in the region of Uman (YMAHb on the map) by 1 prong going south from Kiev and the other moving
up. There are no Ukrainian forces between the 2 arms, though they have a huge distance to cover. It also cuts off Odessa.

[Kati]

Scoop

As per Republic, according to the Uki media, former Uki prez Yanukovych has been brought to Belarus as part of the second round of Uki-Rus negotiation.

So apparently Putin is working on installing Yanukovych in Kyev.

[Cyrano]

Me thinks the pause has not only served the Russian forces to restock and redeploy in a better organised fashion, it also gave vital time for Indians and other foreigners to get out of Ukraine. We may have another 24hrs max before RA lets loose.

[Baikul]

Updated. Latest additions in green.

Sometimes just putting together a list helps clarify the scope of an event. For forumers expressing surprise at one sanction of another, seeing the big picture may help underline the massive response - almost a total war without actual physical fighting - that the West is unleashing.

Military:

1. Massive influx of weapons by western nations - openly, in great detail (one example is the 20,000 Javelins being sent to Ukraine, which by themselves are enough to take out Russia’s entire arsenal of some 13,000 tanks.

2. An act hard to recall in recent memory, Western governments almost encouraging their non military citizens to pick up arms and fight (unprecedented) in Ukraine

3. Sunning reversal of national policies earlier laid down in stone: Germany with its traumatic past is supplying weapons and will make huge investment in its military

4. Committing new ground forces to NATO allies (example - Great Britain commits 1000 troops to Estonia and doubles its presence, besides upping aggressive air and naval presence)

Targeting of individuals and political institutions:

1. Some 40- 50 Individuals around Putin and key executives targeted individually (Sergei Lavrov, Sergei Shoigu, Valery Gerasimo, Kirill Shamalov, and so on) to freeze their assets and impose a travel ban.

2. EU has also restricted wealthy Russians’ access to UK banks, including a £50,000 limit on bank account

3. Russian parliament: The EU imposed sanctions on 351 members of the Russian Duma, placing them on a travel ban and asset freeze list

4. Diplomats, Russian officials and business people will no longer be able to benefit from visa facilitation provisions, which allow privileged access to the EU.

Banks and financial services

1. Russian Central Bank to be prevented from deploying its international reserves

2. SWIFT: Expulsion form an international system that will have a staggering financial impact

3. The top 8-10 Russian banks accounting for 80 percent and up of Russians global financial transactions have been cut off ( frozen assets, Ban on on issuing bonds, shares or loans in the EU for refinancing and equity restriction on major players)

Other Individual Companies:

1. Russian airline Aeroflot will be banned from UK airspace

2. Bans on:
- Rostec, Russia’s largest defence company,
- Uralvagonzavod, the world’s largest tank manufacturer
- Tactical Missile Corporation, a major supplier of air and seaborne missiles,
- United Aircraft Corporation, a Russian holding company that supplies military aircraft and includes all major Russian aircraft manufacturers,
- United Shipbuilding Corporation, largest shipbuilding company in Russia, which has constructed key Russian warships.

3. American/ Western companies that have sipped activities in Russia

Apple product sales
Nike online sales
Dell product sales
FedEx shipments
UPS shipments
Disney film releases
Warner film releases
GM shipments
Harley-Davidson shipments
Boeing pilot training
Visa network access
Mastercard network access


Attack on Russian Tech

1. EU-based companies are banned from exporting technology to Russian weapons maker JSC Kalashnikov, among others, as well as pharmaceutical companies, military communications units and shipyards.

2. US has prohibited the export of high-end and critical technical equipment and components in sectors including electronics, telecommunications and aerospace.

International Finance/ capital access

1. US has restricted companies critical to Russian economy from raising money through the US market:
- Gazprom, world’s largest natural gas company,
- RusHydro, one of Russia’s largest power companies
- Sovcomflot Russia’s largest maritime and freight shipping company
- Russian Railways and one of the world’s largest railroad companies,
- Rostelecom The country’s largest communications operator,

2. EU has issued a ban on listing the shares of Russian state-owned entities on EU trading venues. No UK individual or business can deal with the Donetsk and Luhansk, territories until Ukraine controls them again.

Sports

1. FIFA IOC UEFA and sports bodies asking for boycott of Russian sports (not just teams but also individuals -IOC recommends that international event organizers not invite Russian athletes to compete in events, as well as athletes from Belarus)
2. NHL has suspended partnerships with Russian businesses

This list is a start, it will probably expand we go along. As for impact analysis, we will probably spend weeks and months and and maybe years just figuring it out.

But it’s very clear that the western assault is multipronged, widespread and calculated to cause massive damage to Russia. As I said Total War without the actual physical fighting.