Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

John · Post by **John** » 03 Mar 2022 03:07

hnair wrote: John, the lack of information is quite odd. But 160-200k sounds like something that is doable for a country that is OEM for almost all of the equipment they are using and also does serious peacetime wargames with large formations. Georgia and Chechenya II are quite sometime back and even the most skeptical western analysts agree that they have upgraded their equipment and C4I since then.

Also a request: can you provide some links on some of the interesting data you post here, particularly downings of aircrafts and how various weapons fared. The lack of clarity on various things is troubling. FWIW, I honestly expected the Ukranians to put up severe resistance much before the outskirts of Kyiv, a la the brutal fighting around Grozny, based on the weapons tranches that were provided for them.

In terms of AC losses Russians have lost Three Ka-52s but what is surprising is the fact that they seem to take beating and made emergency landing in two cases appearing fairly intact (third ones dropped into the sea).

Russian MWS has been quite effective seen numerous stingers get decoyed though one or two managed to find their target. But it is far better showing than Chechnya where they had no such system.

Lack of other AC losses by Russia does confirm my assessment that Russians are holding back their Su-24, Su-27/30 . Not sure on reason may be the threat possessed by UKR S-300s?

Latest Ka-52 downed today
https://twitter.com/JosephHDempsey/stat ... IT15vrwFxg

In tank front T-90 have been deployed quite sparingly compared to T-72. But both have faired very poorly and that includes Ukr T-84 against modern ATGM I.e NLAW or Javelin or their Russian equiv. T-90 seems to have been taken out in rare combat footage by a panzerfaust (granted it was in point blank range).

Russian SAM seem to be once performingly terribly Buk and Panstir have been knocked out by Tb-2s and even a Ukr Su-25. Ukrainian SAM (Buk, S-300 and Strela) while still mostly active haven’t done much either, once again I am not sure if it is because Russians are flying their planes low and using them sparingly.

Artillery strikes done by Russians and Ukrainians seem to be quite precise (compared to Grads) either it is all propaganda or the use of drones for spooting is greatly increasing their accuracy.

kit · Post by **kit** » 03 Mar 2022 03:17

Jay wrote:
Anoop wrote: Good points raised by Lt. Gen. Ata Hasnain. Speaks of how Russia carried out strategic deception well pre-invasion (kept most people guessing about whether he would invade)
I have to disagree on this one Anoop ji. Aam Aadmi might not have been aware, at a governmental and intelligence level US, UK, China and few other nations knew this was happening. In fact, US issued a warning sometime back in December itself that Russia was planning for an Ukraine operation.

Below WaPo link is the first I read in December and by end of December there were news items out mentioning of an imminent attack.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html

Remember China stockpiling up on Wheat ? .. that was a giveaway !!

kit · Post by **kit** » 03 Mar 2022 03:23

https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 00.article

VSMPO forges landing-gear components for 787s and 777s. Experts describe the Russian firm as incredibly skilled at forging large aerospace components.
VSMPO is among four major aerospace titanium suppliers, the others being US firms TIMET, ATI and Howmet Aerospace.

But the Russian firm has outsized market share, producing at least half of the global aerospace industry’s required structural titanium, says Michaels.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 Mar 2022 04:00

I agree. India too has been sending notices to evacuate since 15 January.
And by 15 Feb were quite serious.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 Mar 2022 04:07

More Gilbert Doctorow:
https://twitter.com/SIRATYST/status/149 ... iuN3StX_pg

John · Post by **John** » 03 Mar 2022 04:51

Russia says 498 of its soldiers killed, 1,597 wounded in Ukraine

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-sa ... 022-03-02/

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 03 Mar 2022 05:06

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/15 ... orld-war-3
Romanian fighter jet and recon helicopter come crashing down

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 03 Mar 2022 05:17

John wrote:Russia says 498 of its soldiers killed, 1,597 wounded in Ukraine

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-sa ... 022-03-02/

This seems to be at the level of Pakistani tactical brilliance by Putin and his generals. Another Operation Gibraltar.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 03 Mar 2022 05:31

Mort Walker wrote:
John wrote:Russia says 498 of its soldiers killed, 1,597 wounded in Ukraine

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-sa ... 022-03-02/
This seems to be at the level of Pakistani tactical brilliance by Putin and his generals. Another Operation Gibraltar.

look at how the russians fought in WWII, they are not too perturbed by casualties

They are also fighting a risky battle by minimizing ukrainian collateral damage as well as not targeting non military targets

John · Post by **John** » 03 Mar 2022 05:39

Mort Walker wrote:
John wrote:Russia says 498 of its soldiers killed, 1,597 wounded in Ukraine

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-sa ... 022-03-02/
This seems to be at the level of Pakistani tactical brilliance by Putin and his generals. Another Operation Gibraltar.

Right now from what I have seen there is not much to treat injured soldiers in front lines and given some of battles I would say casualty count is definetly higher but sadly avoidable.

Russians could be right about it’s 498 death toll, it is probably # of bodies they have on hand and have identified and also likely doesn’t incl separatists or mercs/Chechnyans.

I believe the real death toll is not as high 5k that Ukrainian gov has put forth. More around 2k would be my guess not incl the separatist or merc.

vmalik · Post by **vmalik** » 03 Mar 2022 06:32

I wonder what the casualty figures would look like for Indian military (considering the geniuses incharge) if they were to carry out a similar op to cutoff PoK...

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 03 Mar 2022 06:42

vmalik wrote:I wonder what the casualty figures would look like for Indian military (considering the geniuses incharge) if they were to carry out a similar op to cutoff PoK...

Think in terms of breaking up Pakis into multiple parts including POK. Casualties are acceptable in war.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 03 Mar 2022 06:47

Looks like Russians expanded to western front also with this simultaneous raids.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/sta ... 4069643270

Air raid alerts in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, Mykolaiv, Lviv, Zhytomyr, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernihiv and Chernihiv Oblast, Volyn Oblast, Cherkasy Oblast, Kirovohrad Oblast, Poltava Oblast, Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Zaporizhzhia and Odesa.

Residents must go to the nearest shelter.

vmalik · Post by **vmalik** » 03 Mar 2022 07:00

vmalik wrote:I wonder what the casualty figures would look like for Indian military (considering the geniuses incharge) if they were to carry out a similar op to cutoff PoK...

I don't know if Indian collective psyche is prepared for 15-20k dead when the vulture domestic media will start broadcasting every funeral procession.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 03 Mar 2022 07:49

vmalik wrote:I wonder what the casualty figures would look like for Indian military (considering the geniuses incharge) if they were to carry out a similar op to cutoff PoK...

And who are the geniuses you are considering here? And why are they referred to as geniuses?

S_Madhukar · Post by **S_Madhukar** » 03 Mar 2022 07:52

May be this will test actual value of Russian gear for our generals? Iraq was brushed off but this is as close as it gets for a true tactical appraisal or will it be again oh well this was a restricted war , gear wasn’t actually put to use as per doctrines etc . even in a defensive battle most of our Ruskie helo and tanks are toast because we haven’t upgraded them with MAWS or TI lots of sobering lessons for the leadership

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 03 Mar 2022 08:03

S_Madhukar wrote:May be this will test actual value of Russian gear for our generals? Iraq was brushed off but this is as close as it gets for a true tactical appraisal or will it be again oh well this was a restricted war , gear wasn’t actually put to use as per doctrines etc . even in a defensive battle most of our Ruskie helo and tanks are toast because we haven’t upgraded them with MAWS or TI lots of sobering lessons for the leadership

It seems the Russians are a poor demonstrator of Russian kit. A disjointed strategy, poor logistics support, coupled with poor morale of soldiers seems to be leading to unnecessary death of personnel and loss of ground equipment.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 03 Mar 2022 08:27

Ukr is increasingly looking like the Packeestan of Eastern Europe...instead of identifying with its brother in the east, it has been busy trying to identify itself with outsiders, taking completely absurd positions in order to show difference from Russia.... in the process ending up as the poorest country in Europe. Its breakup has been accelerated by Putin. The equally pathetic country of Packeestan should learn a lesson from the fall of their TFTA blond and blue eyed "soulmates".

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 03 Mar 2022 09:16

https://twitter.com/policytensor/status ... 7939917828

For those interested in the above quote, the full Bloomberg podcast with Zoltan Pozsar, Managing Director & Global Head of Short-Term Interest Rate Strategy at Credit Suisse, New York, is given below:

Zoltan Pozsar on Russia, Gold, and a Turning Point for the U.S. Dollar

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 03 Mar 2022 09:17

In other news about the neutrality of big Tech:

EA games has started removing Russian teams and players from its games asset list in a show of “support”
Ukraine has petitioned ICANN and RIPE to remove all Russian top level domains and reclaim all IPv4 and v6 addresses allocated to Russia.

The second one is far more serious and needs to be watched very closely how these organisations respond as this strikes into the heart of how Internet is supposed to work. Long long time ago the Russians had protested that these organisations are under US control and s should be made more accountable to the fact that they underpin the Internet’s functioning and hence should be neutral. Time has shown how prescient they were.

In usual propaganda Ukraine is claiming 7000 Russian soldiers dead… this is gladly reported without verification by BBC and indian media.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 03 Mar 2022 09:42

Most of the BRFites posting on this forum have been taken in by the western propaganda about Russian losses in UKR. Need a more a balanced analysis

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 03 Mar 2022 09:56

Paul wrote:Most of the BRFites posting on this forum have been taken in by the western propaganda about Russian losses in UKR. Need a more a balanced analysis

In roughly a week, nearly 500 personnel dead and 1600 wounded as admitted by Russia. Invariably this leads to considerable material loss too. In 1999, the Kargil War, India had 527 dead and 1363 wounded with 2 fighter aircraft and one helo. Pakistan had over 1200 dead and over 1000 wounded. Kargil was a conflict that has not been forgotten and strengthened the IA capacity in the long run that paid off in Galwan in 2020.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 03 Mar 2022 09:58

The Indian government should stop students and citizens going to unstable countries. After the 2014 Crimean takeover, Ukraine became a conflict zone and Indian students shouldn't have been allowed there. China is another country Indian students or citizens shouldn't be allowed. China has far less compunctions than Ukraine to use them as hostages. I see some Indians marrying Chinese too and settling in China. How dumb can they be?

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 03 Mar 2022 09:59

Russia need to think of one thing deep and hard.

If the Russians win the war, how will they pay for reconstructing Ukraine? We may say that they won't care and ask Ukraine to rebuild themselves, but that in itself will be a huge blow and only cause tremendous alienation in Ukraine making their control over it quite tenuous. At any point in the future when Russia is weak you can be sure Western powers will force reparations from Russia, in the form of resources of which Russia has plenty.

OTOH if the Russians are able to fund the reconstruction of Ukraine, it will be a huge factor in winning back its people. US funded Europe's reconstruction and helped Japan get back on its feet after WWII; it created a lot of goodwill and Pax Americana was the result. Unless the damage to Ukraine can be limited to what has already happened, and there is a quick Russian victory followed by reconciliation and reconstruction, Ukraine is a lost cause.

If Russia loses, Europe has sufficiently deep pockets and the willingness to rebuild Ukraine and thereby permanently shutting the door on the Russians.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 03 Mar 2022 10:13

I think that on BRF we are not paying attention to the text of the Russian PRC treaty of friendship which automatically got renewed for 5 years in early February.

https://tass.com/politics/1268537

I am not able to open the Kremlin site to read the text of the Russian PRC joint statement issued on 4th of February.

I think the Russia will be supported by PRC going forward.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 03 Mar 2022 10:15

hanumadu wrote:The Indian government should stop students and citizens going to unstable countries. After the 2014 Crimean takeover, Ukraine became a conflict zone and Indian students shouldn't have been allowed there. China is another country Indian students or citizens shouldn't be allowed. China has far less compunctions than Ukraine to use them as hostages. I see some Indians marrying Chinese too and settling in China. How dumb can they be?

When medical college seats are so limited and not merit based, what else will many of the educated middle class do? I had relatives go to Ukraine and Russia in the late 1990s. Back then those places were disorganized and degrees from former USSR were not recognized in India for some time.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 03 Mar 2022 10:17

Pratyush wrote:I think that on BRF we are not paying attention to the text of the Russian PRC treaty of friendship which automatically got renewed for 5 years in early February.

https://tass.com/politics/1268537

I am not able to open the Kremlin site to read the text of the Russian PRC joint statement issued on 4th of February.

I think the Russia will be supported by PRC going forward.

Russia-China Friendship Treaty to be automatically extended for 5 years
This Treaty will turn 20 on February 28, 2022

MOSCOW, March 22. /TASS/. Russia is convinced that the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation with China will be automatically extended for five years in 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with the Chinese mass media.

"This Treaty will turn 20 on February 28, 2022. It was signed on July 16, 2001 and was ratified on February 28, 2002. We are confident that when the treaty marks 20 years in February 2022, it will be automatically extended for another five year period in line with Article 25," he said.

According to the Russian top diplomat, the dynamic development of the Russian-Chinese relations in the past 20 years proves that "the treaty has withstood the test of time and the liabilities undertaken by the countries are being strictly implemented." "I would like to recall that these liabilities are to pass over friendship between our peoples to new generations. It is a unique legal formula I haven’t seen anywhere else but for relations between Russia and China," Lavrov stressed.

He recalled that the sides undertook to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, stated that they had no territorial claims to each other and expressed "their resolve to turn the border between Russia and China into a border of eternal peace and friendship." "It is a very unusual wording for official documents and it demonstrates that our relations have really unique nature," the minister added.

"This model of cooperation between Russia and China is absolutely free from any ideological limiters. It is free from any time-serving factors and is not aimed at any third country. The leaders of our countries have repeatedly stressed that," Lavrov added.

The Russian-Chinese Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation was signed by Russian and Chinese presidents, Vladimir Putin and Jiang Zemin, on July 16, 2001.

Div · Post by **Div** » 03 Mar 2022 10:22

Paul wrote:Most of the BRFites posting on this forum have been taken in by the western propaganda about Russian losses in UKR. Need a more a balanced analysis

I'd just say that some of the post battle analysis seems to show that the Russian soldiers were not well prepared, not well trained in terms of getting a lot of reps and lacked leadership/co-ordination. A lot of their equipment doesn't look like it was used much in peace time and was in shit shape - stuff like tires disintegrating, expensive kit like mobile AAM platforms breaking down, etc. Probably says more about corruption where maintenance funds get skimmed off by just not using equipment.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 03 Mar 2022 10:23

Mort Walker wrote:
Paul wrote:Most of the BRFites posting on this forum have been taken in by the western propaganda about Russian losses in UKR. Need a more a balanced analysis
In roughly a week, nearly 500 personnel dead and 1600 wounded as admitted by Russia. Invariably this leads to considerable material loss too. In 1999, the Kargil War, India had 527 dead and 1363 wounded with 2 fighter aircraft and one helo. Pakistan had over 1200 dead and over 1000 wounded. Kargil was a conflict that has not been forgotten and strengthened the IA capacity in the long run that paid off in Galwan in 2020.

500 KIA in a week surely does indicate very heavy fighting. While Kargil was a slow paced heavy grind inch-by-inch warfare, thus is far more kinetic blitzkrieg ki d of operation. IA was very cautious in avoiding casualties given the heavy odds against them due to terrain, while Russians have adopted a more brash kick the doors down approach.

The end goal of Russian action is still not clear. Is the entire Ukraine going to be overrun or just eastern terriories?

An overall surrender will be beneficial to Russia, but it will come at a heavy cost.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 03 Mar 2022 10:26

Div wrote:
Paul wrote:Most of the BRFites posting on this forum have been taken in by the western propaganda about Russian losses in UKR. Need a more a balanced analysis
I'd just say that some of the post battle analysis seems to show that the Russian soldiers were not well prepared, not well trained in terms of getting a lot of reps and lacked leadership/co-ordination. A lot of their equipment doesn't look like it was used much in peace time and was in shit shape - stuff like tires disintegrating, expensive kit like mobile AAM platforms breaking down, etc. Probably says more about corruption where maintenance funds get skimmed off by just not using equipment.

Russia barely has a defence budget of our size and a way larger Airforce and strategic force. No wonder the hangar queen hardware is having a bad time.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 03 Mar 2022 10:31

In Kargil, the IA undertook a nearly impossible offensive to push out TSP defenders at height. Russia has far more fire power on level ground and should have hit harder within the first few days. It seems the Russians wanted to allow time for ceasefire talks, which doesn't make sense and caused more casualties.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 03 Mar 2022 10:42

ldev wrote:

https://twitter.com/policytensor/status ... 7939917828

For those interested in the above quote, the full Bloomberg podcast with Zoltan Pozsar, Managing Director & Global Head of Short-Term Interest Rate Strategy at Credit Suisse, New York, is given below:

Zoltan Pozsar on Russia, Gold, and a Turning Point for the U.S. Dollar

Good post. +1001

Hypothetically...suppose today Russia declares a unilateral ceasefire, announces all troops are being pulled out immediately, all territories of Donbass, Lugansk and Crimea are being returned to Ukraine, and Putin announces he is stepping down to retire in the Russian countryside. Will the western Europeans and US remove SWIFT sanctions and seized assets? Never. The west has pushed too far and the demise of the USD may happen sooner than we think.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 03 Mar 2022 10:46

Thakur_B wrote:
The end goal of Russian action is still not clear. Is the entire Ukraine going to be overrun or just eastern terriories?

An overall surrender will be beneficial to Russia, but it will come at a heavy cost.

Putin has clearly enunciated the following goals.

1) demilitarization of Ukraine. .
2) denazification of Ukraine.
3) prevention of eastward expansion of NATO.
4) preservation of rights of ethnic Russians in Ukraine.

The western power's in their pathological hatred of Russia will fight Russia to the las Ukrainian. Then the number of other eastern nation's will come to fight Russia to the last of their citizens.

When the war reaches Germany. NATO will sue for peace.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 03 Mar 2022 10:55

John wrote:
hnair wrote: …..

Also a request: can you provide some links on some of the interesting data you post here, particularly downings of aircrafts and how various weapons fared. …..
In terms of AC losses …

In tank front….T-90 seems to have been taken out in rare combat footage by a panzerfaust (granted it was in point blank range).

…..

Artillery strikes done by Russians and Ukrainians seem to be quite precise (compared to Grads) either it is all propaganda or the use of drones for spooting is greatly increasing their accuracy.

I found this to be a good reference point for evaluating losses on both sides. It’s quite detailed

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/a ... pment.html

T-90 performance evaluation is still something that needs more data. We do not have much information on their deployment, logistical support or tactical situation.

If you believe the data in the link above, 2 of 4 T-90 were abandoned. That speaks more to possible issues with logistics, crew morale or tactics.

The T-90 tank destroyed that you mentioned - if you’re referring to this one:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVide ... ame=iossmf

It was not only point blank range, the tank was immobile, it appeared to be abandoned, and the shot was taken from the side. A bit like Birbal’s armour story.

One more example I saw of T-90s being taken out is of an abandoned tank in which someone’s thrown a Molotov cocktail or some incendiary after the fact.

Artillery strikes - there is another explanation circulating for why they’re so precise, ie, due to cultural, ethnic and linguistic similarities between the two sides saboteurs were able to move around ‘painting’ targets for artillery.

But if you see emerging video of the last day or so, it seems that entire city blocks are being hit, so not sure about precision any more.

Div · Post by **Div** » 03 Mar 2022 10:57

The weaponization of US treasuries and the overall financial sanctions are basically the new form of war. The US has perfected this over the last decade and I wouldn't be surprised, if Putin either got snookered or agreed with Xi to probe the limits of this tactic so that China can be better prepared. His wild card is still the nat gas, oil and resources - depends how long he can hold out.

Here's another good discussion on the financial war that was just unleashed - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ty7eQRwcy2c

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 03 Mar 2022 11:36

I guess some one else have already noticed this; I am seeing lot of strange advertisements, news reports links all pro-Ukraine and anti-Russia. That too when I have not visited any of those news portals. Looks like this is another media blitz-krieg triggered by liberal (?) countries like US.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 03 Mar 2022 11:40

Atmavik wrote:
Making them pay will be very bad optics

We have 1.1 million students abroad. Not sure what 230 of them are doing in Pakistan

https://mobile.twitter.com/VikramNehru/ ... 5574785025

Kashmiri students go to Jihad Univ in Pak.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 03 Mar 2022 11:45

Baikul wrote:I also noticed that Nepal and Bhutan voted with the Western world/ Ukraine, while Bangladesh and Even Sri Lank abstained. It would have been interesting to be a fly on the wall to understand the Nepalese and Bhutanese voting the way they did.

Nepal does not have an independent foreign policy. Neither do 7 of the 10 non permanent members of UNSC. India, UAE & Brazil are the exceptions. If Gabon, Albania or Nepal don't vote the way US wants, the Ambassadors monthly allowance ends and maybe his kid gets kicked out of college in the US. Bhutan's vote was probably India's doing.

Div · Post by **Div** » 03 Mar 2022 11:46

Sachin wrote:I guess some one else have already noticed this; I am seeing lot of strange advertisements, news reports links all pro-Ukraine and anti-Russia. That too when I have not visited any of those news portals. Looks like this is another media blitz-krieg triggered by liberal (?) countries like US.

Yeah it is full on. No more COVID, all Ukraine.

Pretty much across the board, worldwide (except Russia and likely China).

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 03 Mar 2022 11:56

Sachin wrote:I guess some one else have already noticed this; I am seeing lot of strange advertisements, news reports links all pro-Ukraine and anti-Russia. That too when I have not visited any of those news portals. Looks like this is another media blitz-krieg triggered by liberal (?) countries like US.

I'm seeing the same. Also, its more difficult to follow Russian youtube videos, because they are not easily visible in searches (I speak Russian).