Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 07 Mar 2022 20:18

Now we know why BJP withdrew farm laws and why NM said he withdrew the laws "in the national interest". So Khalis was prevented from getting a free run. But the elections could not be escaped. Had INC not kicked out Captain, INC would have been much better position.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 07 Mar 2022 20:19

Karan M wrote:
krithivas wrote:NPR's "Karen" Lauren Frayer's on UP elections:
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/05/10822589 ... ce-muslims
Why this woman and others like her are allowed to freely roam India for propaganda is one of this Govts biggest mysteries.

A simple answer: They have no impact on the ground. Their impact is in limited circles.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 07 Mar 2022 20:21

I pray that Shidhuuuu wins and his daughter marries.

What a family.

vmalik · Post by **vmalik** » 07 Mar 2022 20:21

rsingh wrote:^^^
It means most of the Voters are Khalistanis? Nop

Yes. Stop giving them benefit of doubt. Punjab is going to burn. Hopefully, Shah will be quick on bringing in governor's rule.

Rampy · Post by **Rampy** » 07 Mar 2022 20:31

Before we jump the gun and give Punjab to AAP. Can someone please tell me when was the last time any exit poll has predicted accurately in 4+ way elections? Never, Farmers have their own party, Congress is split, SAD and then kaptan sahab.
If Khujli had any optimism that he will win, he would have never made a drunken CM face, he wants to be a CM for a state and that ambition has been very clear from day 1. He knows he won't be but he will be a kind maker... that itself is bad. Hope for the best...

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 07 Mar 2022 20:41

Sidhu is truly a wrecking ball ! For once i was hoping khangress wins in PJ as the lesser of two evils but looks like Sidhu has already worked his reverse midas touch ! Hope he joins AAP soon.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 07 Mar 2022 20:45

suryag wrote:Btw what is AAP's winning mantra ? How do these guys manage to win ...

I don’t know if this is a rhetorical question but I’ll assume it’s not. AAP has been in Punjab for the better part of a decade so this is just the end result we’re seeing.

AAP when it enters a new state has a very smart and streamlined social media/ research team / social
Influencer model. They are also very good at identifying funders. Just an example - In terms of early stages tactics, an example they pay their research teams significant salaries to just go a sit in a state (assembly by assembly) to do various kinds of analyses. NO other party does this (AGAIK)

However there’s am aspect of their expansion model that’s not so well known - I call it the Delhi effect. Delhi is a melding of so many cultures and people from multiple states. AAP leverages its popularity and networks in Delhi to target adjacent states. This there are so many Punjabis living in Delhi. These people were identified and tapped in initial stages as a natural way to enter Punjab. Of course there’s a lot more, but the Delhi effect works.

Then we have to acknowledge that voters can get tired of the same narratives being pushed by BJP or INC. They ar looking for a viable alternative and are willing to give a chance to a party that proposed that alternative.

Finally a party works for years, builds its infra without great results, but then an incident happens and all of efforts (years or decades worth) come together so that the party comes to power on a wave - this happened to BJP post Babri Masjid. I think it happens after the recent farmer’s agitation.

There are so many nuances and caveats to this, someone could write a book. However we are on a forum and a post can only convey so much

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 07 Mar 2022 21:04

There was no way BJP was going to win Punjab. I think AAP is preferable to Cong. It will people a chance to see how they run a real state.
It will also further diminish Cong. The siblings have only themselves to blame if they lose Punjab.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 07 Mar 2022 21:16

Deans wrote:There was no way BJP was going to win Punjab…..

Absolutely right.

Anyone who thinks BJP had the ghost of a chance in Punjab post the farmer agitation was probably not paying attention.

Deans wrote:…
It will also further diminish Cong. The siblings have only themselves to blame if they lose Punjab.

Losing Punjab will have a negative impact on INC leadership. However they will try and blame anti incumbency factor. But it’s also true that all
Indications are that Sidhu proved to be a disaster.

However IF AAP doesn’t get majority and has to rely on INC for support, I’m predicting we shall see another election soon. Anyone remember how Kejriwal did this in Delhi years ago?

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 07 Mar 2022 21:19

Today's Chanakya @TodaysChanakya

#TCPoll
UP 2022
Seat Projection
BJP+ 294 ± 19 Seats
SP+ 105 ± 19 Seats
BSP 2 ± 2 Seats
Cong 1 ± 1 Seats
Others 1 ± 1 Seats
#News24TodaysChanakyaAnalysis

Today's Chanakya
@TodaysChanakya
#TCPoll
UP 2022
Vote Projection
BJP+ 43% ± 3%
SP+ 35% ± 3%
BSP 13% ± 3%
Cong 4% ± 3%
Others 5% ± 3%
#News24TodaysChanakyaAnalysis

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 07 Mar 2022 21:27

What would happen if BJP got only a 35% vote share in UP? Will BJP still form the government?

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 07 Mar 2022 21:41

iMac_too
@iMac_too

As per Gupta, the gap between BJP & SP is just 1% in the under-25 demographics in UP

iMac_too
@iMac_too

परदीप गुप्ता is saying BJP is losing under-25 segment across board. That's instagram demographics

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 07 Mar 2022 21:54

too close for comfort

greatde · Post by **greatde** » 07 Mar 2022 22:09

Indian elections becoming personality driven, be it Modi, Yogi, Kejriwal, MB. That makes it very difficult for RaGa who has weak credibility and a joker image.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 07 Mar 2022 22:25

AAP's full colours will be revealed in PJ - they will now have the Police under their control for the first time. Delhi/NCR police is under home ministry. Amit Shah should impose president rule at the first abuse by AAP.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 07 Mar 2022 22:31

vijayk wrote:
iMac_too
@iMac_too

As per Gupta, the gap between BJP & SP is just 1% in the under-25 demographics in UP

iMac_too
@iMac_too

परदीप गुप्ता is saying BJP is losing under-25 segment across board. That's instagram demographics

I said the same thing responding to someone (Yagnasri?) a couple of pages back. The young generation drunk on social media propaganda, harboring anti-establishment sentiment and cheering for anti-government slogans are ripe for picking by the opposition. In Bihar it was the youth who nearly sank NDA , and if SaPa does ends up getting over 150 seats then much of it will come from the M consolidation and below 25 voter base. This is something that BJP will have to take into consideration as 2024 approaches. Honestly, BJP's social media managers are insufferable fools who are more keen on hitting self-goals than have a sophisticated well-honed strategy to take on the opposition.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 07 Mar 2022 22:43

Cyrano wrote:AAP's full colours will be revealed in PJ - they will now have the Police under their control for the first time. Delhi/NCR police is under home ministry. Amit Shah should impose president rule at the first abuse by AAP.

IMO if AAP come to power they would love that, especially if they have a slender majority. Presidents rule at this time will be harmful to BJP, no one else.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 07 Mar 2022 22:49

President's rule has been imposed countless times in India. BJP has to learn how to use it without damaging itself. Part of statecraft syllabus.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President ... _instances

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 07 Mar 2022 23:17

Cyrano wrote:AAP's full colours will be revealed in PJ - they will now have the Police under their control for the first time. Delhi/NCR police is under home ministry. Amit Shah should impose president rule at the first abuse by AAP.

He won't. That's not how this GOI has done things. Be it Shaheenbaag or the "Farmer" Protests or the murderous rampage by TMC after WB elections, for some reason the central government prefers to let these things fester for months or years on end. Maybe so that the people who didn't vote decisively enough for a strongly patriotic candidate may now experience the results of their choice at leisure.

I am seriously concerned that an AAP-ruled Punjab will have taken the first step towards becoming India's Ukraine.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 07 Mar 2022 23:33

I'm not kidding about Punjab. The plan is to make it into a Ukraine for India.

Look at the multiple lines of convergent attack that have focused on it.

1) "Farmers' Protest" was promoted by a professionally-designed propaganda toolkit distributed worldwide. People like Greta Thunberg, Meena Harris, or Rihanna do not provide their endorsements cheaply or easily.

2) At the very same time you had the Khalistan movement picking up steam, both in the subcontinent and in North America/UK. The "Sikhs for Justice" piggybacked on the "Farmer's Protest" publicity to promote their "Khalistan Referendum 2020". Voting for this so-called referendum was actually conducted in UK, Canada, etc. but participation was fortunately suppressed because of COVID.

3) Other activism ostensibly connected to "Farmer's Protest" was manufactured as a cover to threaten the security of the Prime Minister himself (remember the 5th Jan flyover incident this year).

4) Internally within India, we see the Congress Party (essentially a Pakistani ISI front) deliberately getting rid of the ONE figure who was most resolutely committed-- and who had the political stature-- to stand against Khalistan-ism in all its forms, Captain Amarinder Singh; and attempting to replace him with a known Pakistan-sympathizer, Navjot Singh Sidhu.

5) In the middle of all this AAP comes in with a previously unknown CM candidate named Bhagwant Mann. You'll never guess what Bhagwant Mann's original profession was: yes, that's right, a Comedian, exactly like Volodymyr Zelenskyy! I am also curious whether Bhagwant Mann is related to the known Khalistani sympathizer Simranjit Singh Mann.

There are other reports that fall within the province of rumor, but would be very disturbing if confirmed, involving Sikh personnel serving in the security forces and armed forces.

All of these lines of attack have converged squarely on the Punjab election this year. We need to prepare for the worst.

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 08 Mar 2022 00:12

Per constitution, do the central govt. have a right to object to anyone from becoming a CM (or for that matter any post)? In case of "links" to banned organizations?

Sumeet · Post by **Sumeet** » 08 Mar 2022 04:16

Ambar wrote:
vijayk wrote:
I said the same thing responding to someone (Yagnasri?) a couple of pages back. The young generation drunk on social media propaganda, harboring anti-establishment sentiment and cheering for anti-government slogans are ripe for picking by the opposition. In Bihar it was the youth who nearly sank NDA , and if SaPa does ends up getting over 150 seats then much of it will come from the M consolidation and below 25 voter base. This is something that BJP will have to take into consideration as 2024 approaches. Honestly, BJP's social media managers are insufferable fools who are more keen on hitting self-goals than have a sophisticated well-honed strategy to take on the opposition.

It will be interesting to see how under 25 junta did in 2017 UP Assembly election and 2014 & 2019 General elections. Any one has that data ?

I know <=25 years folk in UP who had some or the other grudge against Yogi and wanted him out. None of them have any experience of Goondaraj of SP and it's impact on UP's progress and stature in rest of the country. This is when their parents are staunchly in favor of BJP because they have personal experience with SP, Mayawati and know Congress from its antics in Delhi central govt and other state govts.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 08 Mar 2022 05:00

Vinod Sharma
@vinod_sharma

Axis predicting a massive, massive landslide for BJP in UP. 288-326.

Unbelievable!

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 08 Mar 2022 05:02

This idiot Sanjay Jha RTed tweet that makes fun of him

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 08 Mar 2022 05:11

The PJ exit polls are distressing. There was always a good chance of AAP coming to power but I had thought they would fall short of a majority and they would have to ally with someone. Perhaps that might have reigned in their Khalistani proclivites. The center will have to keep a close watch on their activities now. At least with Captain at the helm they hadn't been too worried about that.

vmalik · Post by **vmalik** » 08 Mar 2022 05:33

does anyone else think that the entire sidhu-channi saga was an intentional self goal by congress to bring khalistanis(AAP) into power to kick start the 0.5 front before 2024 elections? (r-dev sir already hinted at that I guess)

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 08 Mar 2022 05:36

SwamyG wrote: A simple answer: They have no impact on the ground. Their impact is in limited circles.

May not have in India, but they are a danger when the West tries to create divisions in the country. These people are catalysts for fundraising by the missionary NGOs.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 08 Mar 2022 07:22

vmalik wrote:does anyone else think that the entire sidhu-channi saga was an intentional self goal by congress to bring khalistanis(AAP) into power to kick start the 0.5 front before 2024 elections? (r-dev sir already hinted at that I guess)

No. INC isn't known to voluntarily give up power especially in wealthy states such as PJ. The current day INC is dumber than a box of rocks who let a rabble-rouser like Sidhu enter the party from back door, start a revolt within the party, orchestrate the ouster of the party leader in the state and replace him with a guy with less personality than a wet towel. INC predictably shot themselves in the foot, SAD has run its course and were nowhere in contention, no one votes for BJP in the state, so AAP it is.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 08 Mar 2022 07:38

Sumeet wrote:
Ambar wrote:
I said the same thing responding to someone (Yagnasri?) a couple of pages back. The young generation drunk on social media propaganda, harboring anti-establishment sentiment and cheering for anti-government slogans are ripe for picking by the opposition. In Bihar it was the youth who nearly sank NDA , and if SaPa does ends up getting over 150 seats then much of it will come from the M consolidation and below 25 voter base. This is something that BJP will have to take into consideration as 2024 approaches. Honestly, BJP's social media managers are insufferable fools who are more keen on hitting self-goals than have a sophisticated well-honed strategy to take on the opposition.
It will be interesting to see how under 25 junta did in 2017 UP Assembly election and 2014 & 2019 General elections. Any one has that data ?

I know <=25 years folk in UP who had some or the other grudge against Yogi and wanted him out. None of them have any experience of Goondaraj of SP and it's impact on UP's progress and stature in rest of the country. This is when their parents are staunchly in favor of BJP because they have personal experience with SP, Mayawati and know Congress from its antics in Delhi central govt and other state govts.

Pretty much the same case as Bihar. Those below the age of 25 are drunk on empty idealism, and unsurprisingly are under the impression that being anti-government == cool and fashionable. They haven't experienced the perils of misgovernance, crime , violence and corruption of the previous regimes, so are more likely to vote for parties like RJD/SaPa just to prove their anti-establishment credentials.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 08 Mar 2022 08:49

Ambar: Pretty much the same case as Bihar. Those below the age of 25 are drunk on empty idealism, and unsurprisingly are under the impression that being anti-government == cool and fashionable.

Pretty much a direct result of being bombarded by manipulated information by Google, facebook, and twitter. But this BJP govt. is asleep at the wheel on the danger of these american companies that work hand-in-glove with three-letter agencies.

Even the experience of the terrible law-and-order problems caused by selective censorship of views by these american companies during CAA riots, same as in the "anti-farmer protests". Twitter does not have much reach in India but facebook and whatsapp does. Looks targeted to manipulate the naive younger college crowd that is immersed in social media that cannot tell their nether orifice from a hole in the ground, but repeat fashionable buzzwords they read on their feeds with a lot of conviction.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 08 Mar 2022 09:31

If AAP comes to power in Punjab, they would have done something that none of the regional parties like SP, BSP, TMC, DMK etc have managed to do - be in power in 2 regions (Delhi & Punjab). Even granting Delhi is a UT, that's quite an achievement.

Its also a dangerous trend. Kejriwal's entire career was manufactured & nurtured by BIFs. The freeloaders in Delhi voted him in a 2nd time. Now the tentacles are spreading. Congress isn't truly dead yet, politically. But even if they do die, they'd become a background player with their humongous C-system infra, foreign money, connections - they'll become the soil from which other metastasized BIF parties will sprout. AAP is one of the first.

The under-25 phenomenon is something I'd blame Modi & Co for. Been in power for 7.5 years and haven't touched the history our kids are taught, the Hinduphobia our UPSC candidates are taught, haven't cut the media down to size (though people like NDTV have literally criminal charges against them) etc. 7.5 years is nearly an entire school going generation's formative years. That gen is lost, in spite of a nationalist govt in power. The dividends are here for everyone to see

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 08 Mar 2022 09:46

They will come to their senses around 28-30. At least I did. We need to look at voting percentages based on that for 2024.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 08 Mar 2022 11:55

BJP will lose onlee.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 08 Mar 2022 11:56

Ambar wrote:
vmalik wrote:does anyone else think that the entire sidhu-channi saga was an intentional self goal by congress to bring khalistanis(AAP) into power to kick start the 0.5 front before 2024 elections? (r-dev sir already hinted at that I guess)
No. INC isn't known to voluntarily give up power especially in wealthy states such as PJ. The current day INC is dumber than a box of rocks who let a rabble-rouser like Sidhu enter the party from back door, start a revolt within the party, orchestrate the ouster of the party leader in the state and replace him with a guy with less personality than a wet towel. INC predictably shot themselves in the foot, SAD has run its course and were nowhere in contention, no one votes for BJP in the state, so AAP it is.

This to the power of infinity. It boggles the mind how they let a known loose cannon like Sidhu on the decks of a ship that was all at sea in the first place. Then (I seem to be on a roll with my naval metaphors) get in Channi, the political equivalent of using damp gunpowder in pouring rain.

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 08 Mar 2022 12:43

Baikul wrote:
Ambar wrote:
No. INC isn't known to voluntarily give up power.
It boggles the mind how they let a known loose cannon like Sidhu .

Baikulji
This I believe is deliberate,
I am going to sink in 2024, and I will take everyone with me.
The trend to continue in Rajasthan, MP and Maharashtra.
They would like to set up a chain reaction for an implosion of 'Bharat' on their exit from 2024 onwards

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 08 Mar 2022 15:16

Prem Kumar wrote: The under-25 phenomenon is something I'd blame Modi & Co for. Been in power for 7.5 years and haven't touched the history our kids are taught, the Hinduphobia our UPSC candidates are taught, haven't cut the media down to size (though people like NDTV have literally criminal charges against them) etc. 7.5 years is nearly an entire school going generation's formative years. That gen is lost, in spite of a nationalist govt in power. The dividends are here for everyone to see

Absolutely right. Just see the ungrateful comments from the "educated youth" being rescued from Ukraine. Earlier generations used to be shamed for being a poor, chaotic country. This generation seems to have added "hindu nationalist" as well to that shame list. Unless this narrative is counted effectively, securing youth vote in 2024 will be difficult. This is the segment with the most sense of entitlement and will be strongly anti-incumbent.

BJP must create a progressive, dynamic, sophisticated and slick narrative to counter the relentless onslaught of western lifestyle pouring out of TV, OTT, cinema, pop-icons, SM influencers, fashionable brands etc that Indian youth aspire for, and end up seeing traditional, dhramic and nationalist values as incompatible clichés of old guard, upper caste, patriarchal and what not.

srin · Post by **srin** » 08 Mar 2022 17:13

Baikul wrote:
This to the power of infinity. It boggles the mind how they let a known loose cannon like Sidhu on the decks of a ship that was all at sea in the first place. Then (I seem to be on a roll with my naval metaphors) get in Channi, the political equivalent of using damp gunpowder in pouring rain.

One would think that Sidhu was an AAP agent sent to take over Congress and the dynasty were so keen to shoot down their own CM that they couldn't care less if they lost the state or not.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 08 Mar 2022 17:43

If PJ goes to AAP, Kejriwal will start agitating on things that he knows the Centre is unable to give. Some of these will be:

More share of waters from Pakistan.. already the narrative is that the Punjab water table is low due to a treaty that Modi signed giving away water to Pakistan…
Insane demands on funds as PJ is deep into deficit which will only increase due to free water and electricity and everything else
Demands on ever increasing MSP

Any non compliance will be spun as BJP is anti Sikh

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 08 Mar 2022 17:59

Tanaji wrote:If PJ goes to AAP, Kejriwal will start agitating on things that he knows the Centre is unable to give. Some of these will be:

More share of waters from Pakistan.. already the narrative is that the Punjab water table is low due to a treaty that Modi signed giving away water to Pakistan…
Insane demands on funds as PJ is deep into deficit which will only increase due to free water and electricity and everything else
Demands on ever increasing MSP

Any non compliance will be spun as BJP is anti Sikh

president's rule is always there.

the jat sikhs will not take kindly to being pushed around by khujliwal

It is the punjab police that must be safe guarded against subversion

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 08 Mar 2022 18:49

dark days are ahead, thankfully we have a good team at center to tackle it. Only thing that team lacks is ruthlessness of Cong - perhaps because the eco system is still with BIF?