Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 18 Mar 2022 20:02

It’s so simple I feel stupid for not getting it earlier- we now can understand Putin’s strategy for mobilising public opinion behind him (crucial for his overall strategy). It’s the (real or otherwise) Nazi menace.

Of course we’ve all been read of Putin’s demand for Ukraine’s denazification many times in the last 2/3 weeks. But I for one never understood it at a fundamental level despite having read so much about Russian history.

He’s making it all about the legacy of WWII, Russia’s paranoia (justified I may say) about Nazis, thus attempting to strike a deep emotional chord with his people to justify, and continue to win popular support for this war. And if that’s obvious, well, I for one have only understood it now. That this is is ultimate justification for war.

In this narrative he’s the torchbearer against the new Nazis, harking back to the glories and glorious leaders of the past when Soviet Russia sacrificed so much to rid the world of a vicious philosophy and racist murderous regime.

This is how he’s ‘selling it’ to his people. The rest is mere details IMO.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 18 Mar 2022 21:05

Ok there’s more shenanigans. Russian state broadcaster cuts Putin’s speech half way. Calls it a technical issue. Wtf?

https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-s ... 022-03-18/

There’s more to this.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 18 Mar 2022 21:11

In the shorter term (10 years) India should likely steer clear of these kinds of disputes and build up our national strength in all respects.

In longer term, there are many cooperative avenues (e.g. BRICS) to pursue an altered world order.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 18 Mar 2022 21:16

Tanaji wrote:UK is “very disappointed” with India…

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/uk ... reappshare

I am quaking in my boots

The UK is irrelevant. They will only be needed by NATO to provide cannon fodder in conflicts, since they signed up for that.

Nobody (USA, Russia, India, China, OPEC) needs them so what's the point of trying to get edgewise into criticizing other countries' views on this matter. Get lost, you jokers.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 18 Mar 2022 21:27

yogeshkumar wrote:India should stay out of this Sanctions non-sense that these crooks in US/EU and have been harping about. We should trade in Indian Rupees with Russia. Get the Oil, Gas, Fertilizers with discounts. Reduce the need to desperately hoard USDs.

True. Most importantly, we need to start controlling the "free" export of our most valuable resource: brains/human resources.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 18 Mar 2022 21:50

KL Dubey wrote:
yogeshkumar wrote:India should stay out of this Sanctions non-sense that these crooks in US/EU and have been harping about. We should trade in Indian Rupees with Russia. Get the Oil, Gas, Fertilizers with discounts. Reduce the need to desperately hoard USDs.
True. Most importantly, we need to start controlling the "free" export of our most valuable resource: brains/human resources.

How pray tell?

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 18 Mar 2022 21:57

KL Dubey wrote:
Tanaji wrote:
The UK is irrelevant. They will only be needed by NATO to provide cannon fodder in conflicts, since they signed up for that.

UK is not that irrelevant, yet but I agree that we need not pay much attention to their stupid statements like this. Let them bark and give them that space while we do what's needed to be done.

yogeshkumar · Post by **yogeshkumar** » 18 Mar 2022 22:08

Doesn't look like China will bow to US demand to severe its relationship with Russia.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1255251.shtml
"China-Russia relations the most important strategic asset that cannot be damaged by US provocation"

Pushing Russia into China's orbit is the biggest blunder that US/EU have managed to do as part of this Ukraine fiasco.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Mar 2022 23:39

My old post:

viewtopic.php?p=2506079#p2506079

kit · Post by **kit** » 19 Mar 2022 00:25

yogeshkumar wrote:Doesn't look like China will bow to US demand to severe its relationship with Russia.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1255251.shtml
"China-Russia relations the most important strategic asset that cannot be damaged by US provocation"

Pushing Russia into China's orbit is the biggest blunder that US/EU have managed to do as part of this Ukraine fiasco.

At least india and China are on same page here wrt Russia., true geopolitics, maybe it is possible to work with them ! ( not a precedent though. Both have similar views on climate change for example)

RICs having each others back will change geopolitics on its head. But maybe wishful thinking

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 19 Mar 2022 00:33

RIC having each other's back means C will claim I's territory for itself while R makes sanctimonious noises about the need for solidarity.

Especially given all we know about Xi Jinping having elevated himself to nearly Mao-like status, India would have to be fantastically stupid to trust the Chinese again as Nehru and Krishna Menon did during the original Mao's time.

kit · Post by **kit** » 19 Mar 2022 00:45

It's A TRAP!' Ukraine Foreign Legion Volunteers STARK Warning | Yavoriv Barracks Compilation

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 19 Mar 2022 02:02

When weekend paintball warriors confound fantasy with reality... War is death, mutilation, torture, life long handicap, bereavement, years in foreign jails never seeing your loved ones again... but above all merciless. One must be a sick mf to join someone else's war for kicks.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 19 Mar 2022 03:53

yogeshkumar wrote:
ldev wrote: Countries have permanent interests. If a relationship has become a net liability instead of a net asset, you drop it, sentimentality about the past does not come into the picture.
I am talking about future, not past. When in Future, if India needs some help, lets say in UN security council, a veto or something where US/EU are screaming at India. Lets say if and when India tries to take POK back. Whose support do we expect to get? Only courageous countries come out stronger from historical pivot points like wars.

You think if India criticizes NATO and destroys its relationship with US and Europe today, then tomorrow, if and when we need a veto, Russia will guarantee that veto in entirely changed and unknowable circumstances?

Did it ever work like that in the past? What is your basis for such confidence?

Do you really think India doesn’t have a policy & strategy and is just acting out of sheer cowardice?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 19 Mar 2022 04:02

Xi_Biden talk: China stood the gorund, its position had not changed, with Mr Xi refusing to condemn Russia and also criticising the West's sanctions, holding US responsible for armed conflict.
Cheena released statement even before talks between 2 sides was over, infuriating Biden.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... -invasion/

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 19 Mar 2022 04:04

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... s-12566826

maar peet in UK to house Ukrainians advertising their houses like finest hotels. They r same people who write angry letters in UK newspapers to kick ME refugees out who also are displaced due to UK US war on ME.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 19 Mar 2022 04:08

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... drone-war/
Elon Musk’s Starlink helping Ukraine to win the drone war
The advanced satellite system keeps the army connected despite power outages and helps forces to target Russian tanks and positions

Elon Musk's Starlink satellite system is helping Ukrainian forces win the drone war as they use the technology in their effort to track and kill invading Russians.

In the vanguard of Ukraine's astonishingly effective military effort against Vladimir Putin's forces is a unit called Aerorozvidka (Aerial Reconnaissance) which is using surveillance and attack drones to target Russian tanks and positions.

Amid internet and power outages, which are expected to get worse, Ukraine is turning to the newly available Starlink system for some of its communications.

Drone teams in the field, sometimes in badly connected rural areas, are able to use Starlink to connect them to targeters and intelligence on their battlefield database. They can direct the drones to drop anti-tank munitions, sometimes flying up silently to Russian forces at night as they sleep in their vehicles.
PD-1 unmanned aerial vehicles, which have a wingspan of 10ft and are fitted with infrared sensors, are also used to collect information on Russian troop movements. The Kremlin has responded furiously to the involvement of Starlink in Ukraine.

Dmitry Rogozin, director general of Roscosmos, the Russian space agency, said: "This is the West that we should never trust. When Russia implements its highest national interests on the territory of Ukraine, Elon Musk appears with his Starlink which was previously declared as purely civilian.

"I warned about it, but our "muskophiles" said he is the light of world cosmonautics. Here, look, he has chosen the side."

The Ukrainian drone unit uses a sophisticated system called "Delta" which has been built over recent years with help from Western advisers and can be accessed from basic laptops.

It includes “situational awareness” software which creates an interactive map, incorporating imagery from drones, satellites, sensors and human intelligence so the enemy can be tracked. Delta is said to be compatible with Nato systems, and to have been tested in the Sea Breeze military exercise in the Black Sea last year, which involved the US, Ukraine and 30 other nations.

The Ukrainian system benefitted from equipment given by Western countries, including radio communications which superceded Soviet-era technology, and the US has also poured in millions of dollars to protect against Russian hacking, jamming of signals and attempts to "spoof" GPS technology.

However, there have been fears it could be affected by internet disruption as Russia continues to degrade Ukraine's infrastructure. Shortly after Russia’s invasion Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine's vice-prime minister, asked Mr Musk on Twitter to "provide Ukraine with Starlink stations".

Base stations on Earth beam radio waves up to the satellites, which in turn send them down to a satellite dish terminal on the ground. Internet connections can be fast because they travel through the vacuum of space, and Starlink’s lower orbit allows for signals to travel more quickly, meaning speeds can rival home broadband connections.

More than 2,000 satellites have been launched to date, with plans for around 12,000 in total. In the 48 hours after Starlink was turned on in Ukraine, trucks arrived carrying Starlink terminals which include a satellite dish. There were also adapters allowing them to be powered by connecting to vehicle cigarette lighters, or battery packs, and a "roaming" feature for connectivity on the move.

At least one more delivery has taken place since in the effort to keep Ukraine's population online. On Sunday Starlink became the most downloaded app in Ukraine, and more than 100,000 people in the country are using the connection, which can handle video calls and other "high-data" functions. But its usefulness for the military is also becoming increasingly apparent.

Should Ukraine's internet largely collapse, the "drone warriors" of Aerorozvidka would still be able to communicate with their bases by sending signals from mobile Starlink terminals, and using ground stations in neighbouring countries including Poland.

For the Aerorozvidka volunteers, it is a long way from the beginnings of the unit in 2014. It was formed following the outbreak of war in eastern Ukraine by a group of civilian model airplane enthusiasts and people with engineering backgrounds.

They helped build drones and sensors for the military to monitor the border, including fitting cameras on top of tall poles. They also adapted commercially available drones to gather intelligence and drop homemade explosives, and began making their own missiles.

A crowdfunding effort was launched to help build a large attack drone. In the first few years two members of the unit were killed, including co-founder Kochetkov-Sukach Vladimir Vyacheslavovich.

As it became increasingly successful it was integrated into the organisational structure of the Ukrainian armed forces, allowing them to share intelligence with the army and air force, and interact and be trained by foreign military advisers.

Now the drone squads face increasing danger as the Russians try to track them, and they have to move frequently. Drones are proving so effective that the Pentagon feels supplying Ukraine with aircraft is not necessary. Instead, it is now sending more lethal Switchblades - so-called “kamikaze drones” - which were designed for US special forces, can be carried in a backpack and can destroy a tank.

As Ukraine's internet is inevitably degraded, Starlink will be an alternative. General James Dickinson, commander of US Space Command, told the Senate armed services committee: "What we’re seeing with Elon Musk and the Starlink capabilities is really showing us what a megaconstellation, or a proliferated architecture, can provide in terms of redundancy and capability."

posted in full behind pay wall

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 19 Mar 2022 06:40

ks_sachin wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:
True. Most importantly, we need to start controlling the "free" export of our most valuable resource: brains/human resources.
How pray tell?

Read brevious bosts.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 19 Mar 2022 06:49

India will need to figure out to blind/jam these starling satellites

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 19 Mar 2022 07:13

vinod wrote:India will need to figure out to blind/jam these starling satellites

I am not so sure that it is strictly necessary. When the terminal is listening then it's totally hidden. But when the user is utilising the terminal to send instructions to the drone, or communicating with someone, it's just RF signal.

Can be found and isolated. When found and isolated, it's easy to take out.

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 19 Mar 2022 07:33

Baikul wrote:It’s so simple I feel stupid for not getting it earlier- we now can understand Putin’s strategy for mobilising public opinion behind him (crucial for his overall strategy). It’s the (real or otherwise) Nazi menace.

Of course we’ve all been read of Putin’s demand for Ukraine’s denazification many times in the last 2/3 weeks. But I for one never understood it at a fundamental level despite having read so much about Russian history.

He’s making it all about the legacy of WWII, Russia’s paranoia (justified I may say) about Nazis, thus attempting to strike a deep emotional chord with his people to justify, and continue to win popular support for this war. And if that’s obvious, well, I for one have only understood it now. That this is is ultimate justification for war.

In this narrative he’s the torchbearer against the new Nazis, harking back to the glories and glorious leaders of the past when Soviet Russia sacrificed so much to rid the world of a vicious philosophy and racist murderous regime.

This is how he’s ‘selling it’ to his people. The rest is mere details IMO.

The things is Ukraine has been forced to dredge its own modern day Nazis to mobilize enough opposition against Russians in breakaway regions. So it's not just about WWII Nazis but modern day fascist militia. They have been covered in the western press, and UN observers have noted crimes against Russian civilians in Donbass. Currently the western media pretend that they don't exist.

Zellensky is a Russian jew which is why he got massive support from Russian speakers in the east and an unprecedented landslide in the election. But his popularity has tanked in two years. One of the reasons is that the fascist Ukrainian militia forced Zellensky to make zero concessions to Russian speakers. Also since these fascists were backed by the west, Zellensky may have thought it better to go with the flow of money.

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 19 Mar 2022 07:42

UAE president met with Lavrov in Moscow and then Bashar al Assad met with UAE shortly after in UAE. (first state visit since 2011).
Remember that gulf Arabs were key to Soviet collapse. This time they are treading very cautiously instead of simply pumping more oil at Massa Unkil's command.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 19 Mar 2022 07:45

banrjeer wrote:
Baikul wrote:…..
The things is Ukraine has been forced to dredge its own modern day Nazis to mobilize enough opposition against Russians in breakaway regions. So it's not just about WWII Nazis but modern day fascist militia. They have been covered in the western press, and UN observers have noted crimes against Russian civilians in Donbass. Currently the western media pretend that they don't exist.

Zellensky is a Russian jew which is why he got massive support from Russian speakers in the east and an unprecedented landslide in the election. But his popularity has tanked in two years. One of the reasons is that the fascist Ukrainian militia forced Zellensky to make zero concessions to Russian speakers. Also since these fascists were backed by the west, Zellensky may have thought it better to go with the flow of money.

Yes as he quickly took over the mantle of war leader in the eyes of Ukraine and the Western world we tend to forget that Zelenskyy just before the war was fast losing his popularity. And also that there were/ are significant internal political divides in Ukraine, apart from massive corruption in government.

I think some of those fractures will deepen if and when he negotiates with Putin, and is forced to make concessions. For example if he is called on to sacrifice the Azov battalion and right wing /Nazi extremists, there’s going to be a lot of blowback from his own side.

yogeshkumar · Post by **yogeshkumar** » 19 Mar 2022 08:02

banrjeer wrote:UAE president met with Lavrov in Moscow and then Bashar al Assad met with UAE shortly after in UAE. (first state visit since 2011).
Remember that gulf Arabs were key to Soviet collapse. This time they are treading very cautiously instead of simply pumping more oil at Massa Unkil's command.

Interesting indeed. Seems like Gulf states are trying to grow pair of balls and be independent. Uncle Sam is definitely not happy.

President Joe Biden’s administration reacted to the talks by saying it was “profoundly disappointed and troubled by this apparent attempt to legitimize” Assad.
https://www.rt.com/news/552274-syria-assad-visit-uae/

yogeshkumar · Post by **yogeshkumar** » 19 Mar 2022 08:20

KLNMurthy wrote: You think if India criticizes NATO and destroys its relationship with US and Europe today, then tomorrow, if and when we need a veto, Russia will guarantee that veto in entirely changed and unknowable circumstances?
Did it ever work like that in the past? What is your basis for such confidence?
Do you really think India doesn’t have a policy & strategy and is just acting out of sheer cowardice?

Let me start by clarifying that I hold Indian defense personnel in high esteem. We all owe them our gratitude.
Our bureaucrats on the other hand, I don't know. I have never been in their shoes.. but I have never understood their sheepish behavior on the world stage for last 70 years. And its not like it has worked wonder in our favor on world stage.. we are still treated as just another 3rd world country (their perception, if not reality).

If I were in a position to make a policy statement on this US/EU - Russia conflict, Sanctions etc , this is how I would frame it to the world in clear terms, without mincing words:

- India is a sovereign country and we follow the laws and constitution of India, and only India. We will not allow other countries to force their sanction policies on India, our companies, our traders or our population.
- We urge all parties to this conflict - Ukraine, Nato and Russia, to not escalate the situation any further. We must move on from old cold-war era institutions and towards multi-polar world, where India is ready to play a leading role in bringing peace and prosperity to world.
- We hear lot of talk about saving democracy. It is high time we bring Democracy to UN Security council. In the spirit of democracy, either India should be made a permanent member of UNSC.. or UNSC should be disbanded altogether because it is not serving the interest of billions of people world wide.
- India is ready to play a constructive role in bringing this conflict to an end, as soon as possible. We urge Nato to play a constructive role in this conflict.. rather than sending more weapons into the war zone. At the same time, we urge Russia to consider our sincere offer to mediate in this conflict to bring peace to the region.

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 19 Mar 2022 10:36

The US and EU can never actually sanction China in a meaningful way because they are terribly and totally dependent on China not only for the customer base but also for their own production. This is pretty much across all industries. Even the so-called high tech industries which are the crown jewels of the West have a huge component of their parts and components sourced from China. Then there are the pharma APIs that China has a stranglehold over. All consumer necessities which are needed to stock shelves and keep people happy; whether it is LED TVs, laptops, networking gear or Christmas baubles. Also, China is a major processor of minerals into usable chemicals or commodity products such as Li-ion cells and polymer granules.

So, the only way to become truly sanction proof with respect to the West is to be so horribly intertwined with their commerce and lifestyle that they cannot live without you. Services are a good start for sure, and if all major western companies have about 25% of their skilled workforce in India, that should give them time for pause. But it is not enough, and we have to become critical to their hard goods sector as well.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 19 Mar 2022 11:04

KL Dubey wrote:
ks_sachin wrote: How pray tell?
Read brevious bosts.

Good luck.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 19 Mar 2022 11:39

Ukrainian Ministry if Defence is claiming that they’ve killed another Russian general officer Lieutenant General Andrei Mordvichev, commander of the 8th General Army of the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces.

If true this will be the fifth Russian general officer killed in the war so far, which is an incredibly high number. This latest officer claimed killed is also reportedly the second highest ranked office in theatre.

One has to wonder about the attrition in Russian ground forces.

Side note: A Russian Lieutenant General is the equivalent of an IA Major General.

https://mobile.twitter.com/generalstaff ... 2439163905

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 19 Mar 2022 11:59

Pratyush wrote:
vinod wrote:India will need to figure out to blind/jam these starling satellites

I am not so sure that it is strictly necessary. When the terminal is listening then it's totally hidden. But when the user is utilising the terminal to send instructions to the drone, or communicating with someone, it's just RF signal.

Can be found and isolated. When found and isolated, it's easy to take out.

Why waste time to isolate? Let's have them all in one go while we are at it.

kit · Post by **kit** » 19 Mar 2022 13:59

IndraD wrote:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... drone-war/
Elon Musk’s Starlink helping Ukraine to win the drone war
The advanced satellite system keeps the army connected despite power outages and helps forces to target Russian tanks and positions

As Ukraine's internet is inevitably degraded, Starlink will be an alternative. General James Dickinson, commander of US Space Command, told the Senate armed services committee: "What we’re seeing with Elon Musk and the Starlink capabilities is really showing us what a megaconstellation, or a proliferated architecture, can provide in terms of redundancy and capability."

posted in full behind pay wall

STARLINK IS A THREAT TO INDIAS SECURITY AS WELL. PERIOD. i have been shouting about this for quite a while now. and here is some proof of the american deep state for global domination

kit · Post by **kit** » 19 Mar 2022 14:05

After the "history will judge" rant against china ., India had the same "history will judge" pep talk from Pelosi just a few days back !

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-has- ... or-russia/

"reliable"

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 19 Mar 2022 14:27

^^^
Let’s hope the Chinese deliver some useless weapons and that the US/EU do impose sanctions on China. Good for India!

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 19 Mar 2022 14:40

rsingh wrote: Why waste time to isolate? Let's have them all in one go while we are at it.

Kessler syndrome is why I want to isolate.

kit · Post by **kit** » 19 Mar 2022 15:01

eklavya wrote:^^^
Let’s hope the Chinese deliver some useless weapons and that the US/EU do impose sanctions on China. Good for India!

they can provide ammunition , "useless drones" for single use only., lots and lots of electronics, metals, and military consumables by the tons.. for sure they can sustain russian efforts indefinitely .. they are the worlds factory remember and the largest producer of a number of metals and military components., india can help by delivering on pharmaceuticals, consumables, electricals , consumer goods in return for oil ..

in effect western companies shut themselves off the Russian and Belarus markets., India can fill in the void using alternate payment mechanisms

and any "caatspaw" on India would backfire spectacularly with unseen consequences

kit · Post by **kit** » 19 Mar 2022 15:13

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/artic ... nic-europe

Russians seem to have started testing their hypersonic weapons in UKe obliterating entire UKe battle groups

Imagine a Brahmos XXX

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 19 Mar 2022 16:58

Russians board International Space Station in Ukrainian colours

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 19 Mar 2022 17:29

Liz Truss trying her best:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/l ... 39431.html

It suits some powers to keep this battle going

There are also calls for Putin to be tried as a war criminal. I wonder what the legal basis of this and if this would apply to other former head of states

kit · Post by **kit** » 19 Mar 2022 17:33

When the west talks about "international community"

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 19 Mar 2022 17:54

kit wrote:https://militarywatchmagazine.com/artic ... nic-europe

Russians seem to have started testing their hypersonic weapons in UKe obliterating entire UKe battle groups

Imagine a Brahmos XXX

The Feb 9th article you cited speaks of deployment of hypersonic capable fighter aircraft in the Russian Kaliningrad enclave in the North of Europe. As a threat to NATO nations.

Meanwhile 700 kilometres to the south, reports are emerging that Russia has in the last 24 hours fired a hypersonic missile in Ukraine.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/china/uk ... -in-strike

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 19 Mar 2022 17:56

Putin may be losing the information war, but Ukraine may be losing on the battlefield: BILL ROGGIO

ROGGIO: We were told from the opening days of the war that the Russian military would break. Yet, over three weeks in, Putin remains president and the Russian war machine has not collapsed.

By Bill Roggio

Bill Roggio is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and editor of FDD's Long war Journal.

As Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine grinds on into its fourth week, the physical war rages in the cities and countryside, while an information war is waged over the airwaves and on the internet and social media.

On the actual battlefield, the Russian offensive has undoubtedly slowed over the past week. But what is being described as a 'stalled' takeover may be the result of the Russians taking time to reorganize their forces and improve their logistics.

On the Western side of the information war, we were told from the opening days of the conflict that the Russian military would break due to high casualties and defections, loss of tanks, armored vehicles, artillery and aircraft, and domestic opposition.

Videos of Russian battlefield setbacks abound in the media, and strangely there is little reporting on Ukrainian losses.

And yet, over three weeks into the war, Vladimir Putin remains president and the Russian war machine has not collapsed but in fact continues its plodding, imperfect, and messy advance.

Ukraine certainly has won the war on social media and in the press. This gives the average Western viewer the impression of a lopsided victory in favor of Ukraine.

Additionally, the Pentagon has taken the unprecedented step of conducting daily briefings on the war, even though the U.S. is not at war.

The Pentagon assessments often track closely with assessments given by the Ukrainian government.

The Russian military has used a mix of maneuver and siege warfare in an effort to achieve its goal of breaking the Ukrainian military and government and conquering vast regions of the country.

This is not a condemnation of the West's use of information and disinformation.

These tactics play a role in the management of conflicts. But the West should not delude itself into believing that the Ukrainians will be saved by wishful thinking.

Russia has waged its own clumsy disinformation campaign in an effort to show that its people are united in Putin's so-called 'special military operation' – the name he gives for his country's illegal invasion and war.

On Friday, Russia organized a massive rally in an effort to show the Russian people stand behind him. Meanwhile, thousands of Russians have been arrested for protesting the war.

Putin has also issued a chilling warning to dissenters in his country, likening them to gnats and signaling new repression, while passing laws that make protests illegal and protesters are subject to fines and even prison sentences.

The leader of a unified cause does not employ these tactics.

While each side attempts to promote its narrative of success, one potential sign of the true condition of the Ukrainian defense is Volodymyr Zelensky's recent concession on NATO membership.

Zelensky appears to have caved on one of Putin's reasons for going to war.

'It is clear that Ukraine is not a member of NATO; we understand this,' the Ukrainian president said. 'For years we heard about the apparently open door, but have already also heard that we will not enter there, and these are truths and must be acknowledged.'

Without NATO membership, Zelensky must rely on Western weapons shipments, sanctions, economic embargoes, and other forms of soft support. It remains to be seen if these efforts are enough to turn the tide against the Russians.

The truth on the ground is that Ukrainians are putting up stiff resistance everywhere in an effort to defend their cities and make the Russians pay for every inch of ground.

But short of the quick capture of Kyiv and the collapse of President Zelensky's government, the Russian assault on Ukraine was always going to take time.

Conventional warfare is a time, manpower and equipment consuming effort and quick victories are rare.

On Friday, Russia organized a massive rally in an effort to show the Russian people stand behind Putin. Meanwhile, thousands of Russians have been arrested for protesting the war.

We must remember that it took the U.S. military three weeks to take Baghdad and 42 days to conquer Iraq in 2003.

The Russian military is far less proficient than its American counterpart, and the Ukrainians are superior defenders and more highly motivated that Saddam Hussein's army.

As I've written previously, the Russian offensive was launched on multiple fronts and has four major targets: the capital of Kyiv; Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city and the north; the east, including areas west of the Donbas region, and the south, including the ports on the Black and Azov seas.

The Russian military has used a mix of maneuver and siege warfare in an effort to achieve its goal of breaking the Ukrainian military and government and conquering vast regions of the country.

Where the Ukrainians have put of stiff resistance in the cities, Russian forces are bypassing them to take other key objectives, while at the same time the Russians are attempting to surround the cities and pound them into submission with deadly air and artillery strikes.

This can be most easily seen in the north on the Kharkiv front, where Russian troops hit a wall north of the city.

The Russian military is now attempting to encircle Kharhiv, while pummeling it with artillery.

They also dispatched troops southward towards the town of Izium, which U.S. Defense officials said was taken yesterday.

If the Russians can push south of Izium, they can encircle Ukrainian troops in the northeastern part of Ukraine and cut them off from resupply.

This is a classic military maneuver. Once a force is surrounded, they will begin to run out of necessities, like food and ammo.

While each side attempts to promote its narrative of success, one potential sign of the true condition of the Ukrainian defense is Volodymyr Zelensky's recent concession on NATO membership.

Run out of ammo and you can't defend yourself – it's that simple.

In the south, the situation is also tenuous for the Ukrainians as Russia controls all major coast areas except for Odesa and Mariupol.

The latter city is completely surrounded, being hammered by artillery and starved.

The Russian force is slowing pushing northward from there.

Further west, Odesa is proving to be a tough nut to crack as Russian forces are finding it difficult to reach the city.

Some Russian forces are also pushing north to Kryvyi Rih with the likely goal of reaching Dnipro.

If the Russians could reach Dnipro, the entirety of eastern Ukraine would be in danger of falling to the Russians.

In and around Kyiv, the situation has stabilized for the Ukrainians for the time being.

But Russian forces are on the outskirts of the city, and only the areas south of Kyiv are open.

Ukraine is understandably prioritizing the defense of its capital. However, this likely drawing resources from other fronts.

West of Kyiv, Russia forces have stepped up long range attacks, hitting Ukrainian bases with missile strikes, including some key air bases near the Polish border.

While the information campaigns have clouded the reality of the situation on the ground, what has also become clear is that Russian military does not pose a conventional threat to NATO.

Smaller, non-NATO members, such as Moldova, are not so lucky.

Whatever successes the Russian military has had in Ukraine, the operation has exposed serious flaws in its ability to wage war against an adversary with advanced weaponry and sophisticated tactics.

The Russian air force's inability or unwillingness to gain air superiority over the whole of Ukraine against a less capable foe raises questions about its performance in a potential war against the West.

NATO air power is far superior to that of Ukraine, and would very likely savage Russian armor, ground forces and its logistical support.

NATO ground forces would exploit the Russian military's inability or unwillingness to deploy its infantry to screen against mobile anti-armor teams.

In conclusion, the Ukrainians are currently playing for time, slowly ceding ground while whittling down Russian armor and infantry.

The Russians strategy is also predicated on time; its multi-front offensives also seek to grind down Ukrainian forces and encircle them requires time to execute.

It remains be seen if time is on the Ukrainian or Russian's side. Good arguments can be made for both.

Wars are ultimately about will – the will to sacrifice soldiers, civilians, material, and land in order to set the conditions for victory. Both sides have shown they have the will to continue the fight.
Published: 21:53 GMT, 18 March 2022 | Updated: 21:55 GMT, 18 March 2022