Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

[rsingh]

For any strategic analysis we must never believe American Generals (or any retired General for that). Generals are not independent thinkers. They are given a target and they plan operation accordingly. Out in private life they do not have a fixed target to achieve. So these people are lost. Ex with GN Swartzcoff ( check spellings) who wanted to nuke Afghanistan, Mc Crystal etc. Our Own retired brass is known for foot-in-moth comments.

[Deans]

For last 1 week I am seeing Russian without fuel, Russian troops losing, Russian troops are going to collapse in 3 days

Quite Frankly watching what media is showing Russia is just hitting a few civilian buildings and Ukrainians are blowing up hundreds of vehicles, scores of Aircraft with No Ukrainian Military casualties.
So when is Russia surrendering? The worse the war goes on generally the more losing side puts out such propaganda with little or no factual data.

I mean if there was some reality then we could believe them, but the way things are being reported - a lay man will definitely question this quality of poor reporting.

I was telling one of my relatives in US that based on the first 2 weeks casualties, Ukraine should have captured Moscow by now.
Clearly, Russia has not done as well as they expected, mostly because Plan A didn't work. Their Plan B is probably a slow grinding battle of attrition where Russia uses its artillery and air power more liberally and fights the way they are trained to.

[Sachin]

For last 1 week I am seeing Russian without fuel, Russian troops losing, Russian troops are going to collapse in 3 days

Exactly. The regional news paper I read (online) reports the Russia-Ukriane conflict pretty much the same way it reported the UP elections. Farmer protest rallies, Priyanka Vadra leading the Congress, the yeevil Yogi panicking etc. etc. In a similar note; there was news about how Ukraine troops are hitting back at the Russians, how Ukrainian sailors holed up at a port refused to surrender and abused Russians (the truth was that they surrendered). They even reported one crazy boy from TN, Sai Nikesh (written as Sainikesh ) joining Ukrainian troops and how that meant a disaster for Putin. Today the war would be 2-3 weeks old and we still see Russia and Putin standing strong. Ultimately all these news reports seems to be the current dreams of the owners or chief editors and not the truth.

[Tanaji]

Actually if one reads forums, you realise how massively successful the disinformation war has been for Ukraine. Even non political technical sites have people saying that the Ukranians will now take over Crimea as the Russian army is incompetent and defecting. Some were even positing that Ukraine can join with Poland to capture Moscow.

Ordinarily this can be ignored but there is a danger that people in power will soon start believing their own lies.

[Atulya P]

A good read on the history and extent of Nazification of Ukr.

https://telegra.ph/Russia-Ukraine-Conflict-03-19-2

[Rudradev]

A rare, realistic perspective on the Russia-Ukraine war in a Western portal. Curiously, it's from the loathsome Niall Ferguson (who believes, among other things, that British colonialism was a favour to India).

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... kraine-war

...
I conclude that the U.S. intends to keep this war going. The administration will continue to supply the Ukrainians with anti-aircraft Stingers, antitank Javelins and explosive Switchblade drones. It will keep trying to persuade other North Atlantic Treaty Organization governments to supply heavier defensive weaponry. (The latest U.S. proposal is for Turkey to provide Ukraine with the sophisticated S-400 anti-aircraft system, which Ankara purchased from Moscow just a few years ago. I expect it to go the way of the scuttled plan for Polish MiG fighters.) Washington will revert to the Afghanistan-after-1979 playbook of supplying an insurgency only if the Ukrainian government loses the conventional war.

I have evidence from other sources to corroborate this. “The only end game now,” a senior administration official was heard to say at a private event earlier this month, “is the end of Putin regime. Until then, all the time Putin stays, [Russia] will be a pariah state that will never be welcomed back into the community of nations. China has made a huge error in thinking Putin will get away with it. Seeing Russia get cut off will not look like a good vector and they’ll have to re-evaluate the Sino-Russia axis. All this is to say that democracy and the West may well look back on this as a pivotal strengthening moment.”

I gather that senior British figures are talking in similar terms. There is a belief that “the U.K.’s No. 1 option is for the conflict to be extended and thereby bleed Putin.” Again and again, I hear such language. It helps explain, among other things, the lack of any diplomatic effort by the U.S. to secure a cease-fire. It also explains the readiness of President Joe Biden to call Putin a war criminal.

...



The fascinating thing about this strategy is the way it combines cynicism and optimism. It is, when you come to think of it, archetypal Realpolitik to allow the carnage in Ukraine to continue; to sit back and watch the heroic Ukrainians “bleed Russia dry”; to think of the conflict as a mere sub-plot in Cold War II, a struggle in which China is our real opponent.

The Biden administration not only thinks it’s doing enough to sustain the Ukrainian war effort, but not so much as to provoke Putin to escalation. It also thinks it’s doing enough to satisfy public opinion, which has rallied strongly behind Ukraine, but not so much as to cost American lives, aside from a few unlucky volunteers and journalists.

The optimism, however, is the assumption that allowing the war to keep going will necessarily undermine Putin’s position; and that his humiliation in turn will serve as a deterrent to China. I fear these assumptions may be badly wrong and reflect a misunderstanding of the relevant history.

Prolonging the war runs the risk not just of leaving tens of thousands of Ukrainians dead and millions homeless, but also of handing Putin something that he can plausibly present at home as victory. Betting on a Russian revolution is betting on an exceedingly rare event, even if the war continues to go badly for Putin; if the war turns in his favor, there will be no palace coup.

As for China, I believe the Biden administration is deeply misguided in thinking that its threats of secondary sanctions against Chinese companies will deter President Xi Jinping from providing economic assistance to Russia.

(Here is the interesting part...)

Begin with the military situation, which Western analysts consistently present in too favorable a light for the Ukrainians. As I write, it is true that the Russians seem to have put on hold their planned encirclement of Kyiv, though fighting continues on the outskirts of the city. But the theaters of war to watch are in the east and the south.

In the east, according to military experts whom I trust, there is a significant risk that the Ukrainian positions near the Donbas will come under serious threat in the coming weeks. In the south, a battalion-sized Chechen force is closing in on the besieged and 80%-destroyed city of Mariupol. The Ukrainian defenders lack resupply outlets and room for tactical breakout. In short, the fall of Mariupol may be just days away. That in turn will free up Russian forces to complete the envelopment of the Donbas front.

The next major targets in the south lie further west: Mykolayiv, which is inland, northwest of Kherson, and then the real prize, the historic port city of Odesa. It doesn’t help the defenders that a large storm in the northern Black Sea on Friday did considerable damage to Ukrainian sea defenses by dislodging mines.

Also on Friday, the Russians claim, they used a hypersonic weapon in combat for the first time: a Kinzhal air-launched missile which was used to take out an underground munitions depot at Deliatyn in western Ukraine. They could have achieved the same result with a conventional cruise missile. The point was presumably to remind Ukraine’s backers of the vastly superior firepower Russia has at its disposal. Thus far, around 1,100 missiles have struck Ukraine. There are plenty more where they came from.

And, of course, Putin has the power — unlike Saddam or Qaddafi — to threaten to use nuclear weapons, though I don’t believe he needs to do more than make threats, given that the conventional war is likely to turn in his favor. The next blow will be when Belarusian forces invade western Ukraine from the north, which the Ukrainian general staff expects to happen in the coming days, and which could pose a threat to the supply of arms from Poland.

In any case, Putin has other less inflammatory options if he chooses to escalate. Cyberwarfare thus far has been Sherlock Holmes’s dog that didn’t bark. On Monday the Biden administration officially warned the private sector: “Beware of the dog.” Direct physical attacks on infrastructure (e.g., the undersea cables that carry the bulk of global digital traffic) are also conceivable.

I fail to see in current Western strategizing any real recognition of how badly this war could go for Ukraine in the coming weeks. The incentive for Putin is obviously to create for himself a stronger bargaining position than he currently has before entering into serious negotiations. The Ukrainians have shown their cards. They are ready to drop the idea of NATO membership; to accept neutrality; to seek security guarantees from third parties; to accept limits on their own military capability.

What is less clear is where they stand on the future status of Crimea and the supposedly independent republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. It seems obvious that Putin needs more than just these to be able to claim credibly to have won his war. It seems equally obvious that, if they believe they are winning, the Ukrainians will not yield a square mile of territory. Control of the Black Sea coast would give Putin the basis from which to demand further concessions, notably a “land bridge” from Crimea to Russia.

Meanwhile, the mainly financial sanctions imposed on Russia are doing their intended work, in causing something like a nationwide bank run and consumer goods shortages. Estimates vary as to the scale of the economic contraction — perhaps as much as a third, recalling the depression conditions that followed the Soviet collapse in 1991.

Yet, so long as European Union countries refuse to impose an energy embargo on Russia, Putin’s regime continues to receive around $1.1 billion a day from the EU in oil and gas receipts. I remain skeptical that the sanctions as presently constituted can either halt the Russian war machine or topple Putin. Why has the ruble not fallen further and even rallied against the euro last week?

Remember, both sides get to apply history. The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is a master of the art, carefully tailoring his speeches to each national parliament he addresses, effectively telling one country after another: “Our history is your history. We are you.” He gave the Brits Churchill, the Germans the Berlin Wall, the Yanks Martin Luther King Jr., and the Israelis the Holocaust.

...

Putin applies history in a diametrically opposite way. “The president has completely lost interest in the present,” the Russian journalist Mikhail Zygar argued in a recent New York Times piece. “The economy, social issues, the coronavirus pandemic, these all annoy him. Instead, he and [his adviser Yuri] Kovalchuk obsess over the past.”

...

As the Bulgarian political scientist Ivan Krastev told Der Spiegel, Putin “expressed outrage that the annexation of the Crimea had been compared with Hitler’s annexation of the Sudetenland in 1938. Putin lives in historic analogies and metaphors. Those who are enemies of eternal Russia must be Nazis.” Moreover:

The hypocrisy of the West has become an obsession of his, and it is reflected in everything the Russian government does. Did you know that in parts of his declaration on the annexation of Crimea, he took passages almost verbatim from the Kosovo declaration of independence, which was supported by the West? Or that the attack on Kyiv began with the destruction of the television tower just as NATO attacked the television tower in Belgrade in 1999?

Yet such recent history is less significant to Putin than the much older history of Russia’s imperial past. I have made this argument here before. Fresh evidence that Putin’s project is not the resurrection of the Soviet Union, but looks back to tsarist imperialism and Orthodoxy, was provided by his speech at the fascistic rally held on Friday at Moscow’s main football stadium. Its concluding allusion to the tsarist admiral Fyodor Ushakov, who made his reputation by winning victories in the Black Sea, struck me as ominous for Odesa.


...

The Chinese also know how to apply history to contemporary problems, but they do it in a different way again. While Putin wants to transport post-Soviet Russia back into a mythologized tsarist past, Xi remains the heir to Mao Zedong, and one who aspires to a place alongside him in the Chinese Communist Party’s pantheon. In their two-hour call on Friday, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry read-out, Biden told Xi:

50 years ago, the US and China made the important choice of issuing the Shanghai Communique. Fifty years on, the US-China relationship has once again come to a critical time. How this relationship develops will shape the world in the 21st century. Biden reiterated that the US does not seek a new Cold War with China; it does not aim to change China’s system; the revitalization of its alliances is not targeted at China; the US does not support “Taiwan independence”; and it has no intention to seek a conflict with China.

To judge by Xi’s response, he believes not one word of Biden’s assurances. As he replied:

The China-US relationship, instead of getting out of the predicament created by the previous US administration, has encountered a growing number of challenges. …

In particular … some people in the US have sent a wrong signal to “Taiwan independence” forces. This is very dangerous. Mishandling of the Taiwan question will have a disruptive impact on the bilateral ties … The direct cause for the current situation in the China-US relationship is that some people on the US side have not followed through on the important common understanding reached by the two Presidents …

Xi concluded with a Chinese saying: “He who tied the bell to the tiger must take it off.” Make of that what you will, but it didn’t strike me as very encouraging to those in Team Biden who have been pushing a hawkish line toward China.

The China hawks in the administration — notably Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi at the National Security Council — do not like the term “Cold War II.” But Doshi’s recent book “The Long Game” (which I reviewed here) is essentially a manual for the containment of China — the nearest thing we are likely to get to George Kennan’s foundational Long Telegram and “X” article in Foreign Affairs.

And National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan did not make himself popular at last Monday’s marathon meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi, by threatening secondary sanctions against a list of Chinese companies the U.S. will be watching for signs that they are trading with Russia. If Benn Steill and Benjamin Della Rocca of the Council on Foreign Relations are right, the Chinese have already helped Russia hide some of its foreign exchange reserves from financial sanctions.

Judging by his weekend interview in the Wall Street Journal, a member of President Donald Trump’s NSC, Matthew Pottinger, is now more than content to call a cold war by its real name. I agree: The invasion of Ukraine in many ways resembles the invasion of South Korea by North Korea in 1950.

I would put it like this: Cold War II is like a strange mirror-image of Cold War I. In the First Cold War, the senior partner was Russia, the junior partner was China — now the roles are reversed. In Cold War I, the first hot war was in Asia (Korea) — now it’s in Europe (Ukraine). In Cold War I, Korea was just the first of many confrontations with aggressive Soviet-backed proxies — today the crisis in Ukraine will likely be followed by crises in the Middle East (Iran) and Far East (Taiwan).

But there’s one very striking contrast. In Cold War I, President Harry Truman’s administration was able to lead an international coalition with a United Nations mandate to defend South Korea; now Ukraine has to make do with just arms supplies. And the reason for that, as we have seen, is the Biden administration’s intense fear that Putin may escalate to nuclear war if U.S. support for Ukraine goes too far.

That wasn’t a concern in 1950. Although the Soviets conducted their first atomic test on August 29, 1949, less than a year before the outbreak of the Korean War, they were in no way ready to retaliate if (as General Douglas MacArthur recommended) the U.S. had used atomic bombs to win the Korean War.

History talks in the corridors of power. But it speaks in different voices, according to where the corridors are located. In my view — and I really would love to be wrong about this — the Biden administration is making a colossal mistake in thinking that it can protract the war in Ukraine, bleed Russia dry, topple Putin and signal to China to keep its hands off Taiwan.

Every step of this strategy is based on dubious history. Ukraine is not Afghanistan in the 1980s, and even if it were, this war isn’t going to last 10 years — more like 10 weeks. Allowing Ukraine to be bombed to rubble by Putin is not smart; it creates the chance for him to achieve his goal of rendering Ukrainian independence unviable. Putin, like most Russian leaders in history, will most likely die of natural causes.

And China watches all this with a growing sense of certainty that it is not up against the U.S. of Truman and Kennan. For that America — the one that so confidently waged the opening phase of Cold War I — is itself now history.

[Tanaji]

The Pentagon has given a briefing that the Ukranians are going on the offensive and Russian forces are struggling.

If thats the case Baniansky should not be negotiating at all…

[rsingh]

^^^^
Last time they gave briefing that Talibans are weak and we can pull out forces out of Afghanistan. We know the rest.

[Baikul]

The Pentagon has given a briefing that the Ukranians are going on the offensive and Russian forces are struggling.

If thats the case Baniansky should not be negotiating at all…

^^ Five ‘O Clock follies anyone?

Also, a repetition of history this time as farce.

[vinod]

The Pentagon has given a briefing that the Ukranians are going on the offensive and Russian forces are struggling.

If thats the case Baniansky should not be negotiating at all…

To keep the morale of Ukrainians high and keep them fighting

[KL Dubey]

The Pentagon has given a briefing that the Ukranians are going on the offensive and Russian forces are struggling

To keep the morale of Ukrainians high and keep them fighting

Seems not supported by the ground situation. The Pakrainians seem to be boxed into defensive tactics and not capable of much in terms of offensives/breakouts/advances.

Detailed map with timeline information as well.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... kraine.svg

The eastern offensive into Luhansk province appears to be effective. The frontline now covers almost all the province ,and looks like will continue into the northern part of Donetsk province.

Meanwhile Crimea and southern Donetsk (which has already declared independence) have been used as the staging grounds for the southern offensive. This seems effective, having occupied the whole Azov coast and crossed the Dnieper (well over 100 km into western Pakraine).

The northern offensive (from Belarus and Russia) occupied a lot of territory and reached the outskirts of Kiev within a week of the start. Now it seems a slow grinding down of the opposition holed up in the city. The Russians seem to be in control of most of the roads into Kiev from the west, so it seems only a matter of time.

The northeast offensive got to Kharkov and Sumy pretty quickly but is in a similar situation as in Kiev. Sumy appears close to falling any day.

[Aditya_V]

I suspect Kyiv, Kherson are just to draw resources away, what the Russians really want is probably Mariupol and the Entire Donetsk and Luhansk republics areas. They will sit in the rest of the areas till these are recognized along with Crimea and withdrawal is for negotiations for lifting of sanctions. That is probably Kremlin plan. They would have never tried to occupy 600K kilometer land with 40 million people with 200k troops. That would require a few million occupation forces.

It will drag on till April mid when both parties would have felt a miltary stalemate has been reached.

US puts estimate of 7K to 15K numbers of Russians killed without UK causalities, given the range of the estimate without details I suspect this is for public consumption and real details will come only after hostilities cease. I hope the Ukrainians negotiate rather than doing US deep state wish of making Ukraine into 1980d Afganistan. I hope Putin and Kremlin are also not that dumb to understand where to stop and negotiate.

Europe which is burdened by refugees and having trade links with Russia would like to end the conflict. Not Britain,US and Canada. High energy cost along with absorption of limited refugees means these 3 countries can afford the conflict to drag on to achieve geopolitical goals. China will also like thos conflict to continue.

[KL Dubey]

I suspect Kyiv, Kherson are just to draw resources away, what the Russians really want is probably Mariupol and the Entire Donetsk and Luhansk republics areas.

Partly agree.

Certainly they want the Donetsk and Lugansk provinces. Mariupol is part of Donetsk province.

The other issue is Crimea and the four black sea provinces. It seems unlikely that Crimea would be secured unless at least two of these provinces (Zaporizhzhia and Kherson) are annexed, and therefore achieve complete control over the southern part of the Dnieper. 80-90% of Crimea water supply came from the canal before it was blocked.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/ ... mea-a76591

Additionally, the Russians are clearly interested in the other two provinces Mikolayev and Odessa. They are already trying to capture Mikolayev, have an armada positioned off Odessa, and are already bombing the southern coast all the way down to the Romanian coast. I agree, it is not clear what the fate of these places will be...and the same with the northern cities.

[IndraD]

https://www.reuters.com/world/hungary-r ... 022-03-23/
Hungary rejects sanctions on Russian energy shipments -foreign minister

[Atmavik]

The Pentagon has given a briefing that the Ukranians are going on the offensive and Russian forces are struggling.

If thats the case Baniansky should not be negotiating at all…

^^ Five ‘O Clock follies anyone?

Also, a repetition of history this time as farce.

This reminds me of the Paki newspaper headlines before ‘sukut-e-dhaka’

[IndraD]

Scholz: Russian energy ban would mean European recession https://www.reuters.com/world/hungary-r ... 022-03-23/

[IndraD]

Putin declares that European payments for gas supplies will be switched to Russian rubles as soon as possible https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/15066 ... lsm587VO8g

[anupmisra]

Looking at the roosi maneuver around key cities (leaving the rural parts untouched), I believe the Russkies want to control eastern Yukraine up to the Dnieper River. This way they would control control key mineral wealth (Oil, gas..), oil pipelines, Azov sea, create a strategic depth, control the farmlands and send a clear message to other breakaway republics.

[Atmavik]

For paki lurkers .. salvo firing of Onyx.. might remind them of a recent misfire

https://youtu.be/BKNEBTm9Vag

[banrjeer]

Scott Ritter talks reasonably but his claim about Ukrainian bio-labs tailoring viruses aimed at slavic people is junk biology directed at gullible people.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxoMi53xDrY at around 2.40.

This calls his credibility into question.
But more interesting is that there is a community in the west thats open to a pro-Russian narrative.

[kit]

https://miamistandard.news/2022/03/19/r ... f-on-them/

If Biolab Documents are Fake Then Ask Head of the DTRA Office at the US Embassy in Kiev Joanna Wintrol Why She Signed Off on Them?


The Russian Defense Department presented documents allegedly from the US Defense Threat Reduction Office in Kyiv

On Friday, March 18, the Russian Permanent Representative at to the United States Security Council Vassily Nebenzia presented what the Russian government claims is proof of a US bioweapon program in Ukraine and Georiga (Gateway Pundit reported). Nebenzia claims that the program has been running since 2005, and that “American colleagues were not assisting the Ministry of Health as they claimed, but rather the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.”

According to Nebenzia, the US Department of Defense “delegated broad authorities to its affiliated contractor Black & Veatch in cooperation with Ukrainian state authorities.” The experiments on deadly pathogens in Ukraine were not conducted by Ukrainians, but by Pentagon personnel and foreign researchers, Nebenzia claims.

“The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) competitively awarded Black & Veatch Special Projects Corp. (Black & Veatch) one of its Biological Threat Reduction Integrating Contracts (BTRIC) in 2008 (in Ukraine). The 5-year IDIQ contract (with a 5-year option) has a collective ceiling of $4B among the five selected contractors”, the Black & Veatch website acknowledges.

“Simply speaking, Ukrainian authorities gave Pentagon a carte blanche and let them carry out dangerous biological experiments on the territory of Ukraine. Thereby, the American contractor was exempt from any taxes under Ukrainian legislation”, Nebenzia said. He called the programs “a cynical use of Ukraine’s territory and population for dangerous research that Washington does not want to have at home so that to not put its own population at risk.”

TRENDING: Psaki Spars with New York Post Reporter Asking About Hunter’s Laptop From Hell and Biden Crime Family’s Deals with Russian Oligarchs (VIDEO)

As to claims the Russian charges were merely “disinfomation”, Nebenzia pointed out the Russian government published documents “signed by real US officials. Many of them were signed by head of the DTRA office at the US Embassy in Kiev Joanna Wintrol,” whom he called “well-known in non-proliferation circles.” Prior to Ukraine, Wintrol addressed elimination of chemical weapons in Libya, Nebenzia stated. “If journalists have doubts as to the authenticity of documents that we shared, I suggest they ask her directly whether this is really her signature on them.”

Wintrol left Kiev in August 2020, according to Russia Today: “In her parting interview, she insisted no US scientists worked in Ukrainian biolabs and accused Russia of spreading “false information” about the program. “

On Thursday, March 17, the head of Russian Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Igor Kirillov presented the documents in Moscow that were allegedly seized during Russia’s special operation in Ukraine, purportedly of Ukrainian and US origin. According to the documents, the US had been “carrying out experiments in Ukraine with viruses within the framework of projects P-382, P-444 and P-568 and one of the supervisors of this research was the head of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) office at the US embassy in Kyiv, Joanna Wintrol”, Turkish news agency AA reports. “During the experiments, six families of viruses were chosen, including coronaviruses and three kinds of pathogenic bacteria — pathogens of plague, brucellosis and leptospirosis,” said Kirillov, citing the documents.

Ukrainian Defense Ministry laboratories in Kiev, Odessa, Lvov and Kharkov received $32 million funding from the US, Kirillov claimed: “I draw your attention to the fact that the agreement on joint biological activity was signed between the US military ministry and the Health Ministry of Ukraine. However, the true recipients of the funds were laboratories of Ukrainian Ministry of Defense located in Kiev, Odessa, Lvov and Kharkov. The total funding amount was $32 million,” he said. According to Kirillov, these laboratories were selected by US Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and its contractor Black & Veatch for the implementation of Project UP-8, aimed at studying the Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF), leptospirosis and hantaviruses, TASS reported.

“The United Nations is not aware of any biological weapons programmes” in Ukraine, the UN High Representative of Disarmament Affairs Izumi Nakamitsu told the Security Council. “There are no Ukrainian biological weapons laboratories supported by the United States — not near Russia’s border or anywhere”, stated U.S. Representative to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield.

Since it has been largely ignored by the media, Gateway Pundit again documents the entire speech by Vassily Nebenzia to the United States Security Council:



Mr. President, Colleagues,

As we said earlier, during the special military operation in Ukraine we discovered facts that Ukrainian authorities, supported and directly sponsored by the US Department of Defense, were implementing dangerous projects in the framework of a military biological program. This activity was carried out on the Ukrainian territory, in the middle of Eastern Europe and close to Russia’s western borders, which posed a real threat to biological security of our country and the region.

A week ago upon our request UNSC held its first meeting on this issue, where we asked some questions to our Western colleagues, but did not receive any answers.

US officials claim that there are no US-controlled biolabs in Ukraine, however the Permanent Representative of the United States could not explain how these statements reconcile with the fact that there are documents proving this sort of “cooperation” between Kiev and Washington. I am referring to 2005 Agreement between the US Department of Defense and Ukrainian Health Ministry which stipulates Pentagon’s support for “cooperative biological research” with regard to “dangerous pathogens located at the facilities in Ukraine”.

Though the American delegation is not able or willing to answer our questions, the answers come to light as our Defense Ministry studies the materials received from personnel of Ukrainian biolabs that address US and NATO military biological programs in Ukraine.

Over the past week, we have discovered new details indicating that components of biological weapons were being developed in Ukraine.

The 2005 US-Ukraine Agreement that I mentioned and that we still expect the US representative to comment on was up and running all those years. As we take it from the documents, American colleagues were not assisting the Ministry of Health as they claimed, but rather the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. This morning we circulated as UNSC document a set of materials, where you can find “Plan of technical assistance to certain recipients of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine”. I suggest that you should study it carefully. It confirms that Pentagon’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) directly funded and supervised military biological projects in Ukraine. The total funding amounted to 32 million USD, and the recipients of those funds were the following labs of the Defense Ministry of Ukraine:

– In Kiev – 10th regional sanitation and epidemiological branch of the Central Sanitation and Epidemiological Department of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

– in Odessa – 27th regional sanitation and epidemiological branch of the Central Sanitation and Epidemiological Department of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

– in Lvov – 28th regional sanitation and epidemiological branch of the Central Sanitation and Epidemiological Department of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

– in Kharkov – 108th regional sanitation and epidemiological branch of the Central Sanitation and Epidemiological Department of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

Let me flag another critical aspect. Representatives of the US Department of State still get confused when asked about it and assure that the United States allegedly takes no part in running any biolabs in Ukraine. Facts, however, speak of the opposite.

Under the technical assistance plan that I mentioned, the “donor” (US Department of Defense) set out goals, determined the scope of Ukraine-based projects, endorsed lists of equipment required, and delegated broad authorities to its affiliated contractor “Black & Veatch” in cooperation with Ukrainian state authorities. The recipient of American assistance (Defense Ministry of Ukraine) had to grant “timely access of personnel” of the Pentagon and its contractor to the labs on the territory of Ukraine “for the purpose of conducting works” as part of the projects. Apart from the Pentagon personnel, they also had to grant access to the facilities to some “foreign researchers”. The projects were not supposed to be implemented by, but rather “with participation of” Ukrainian researchers.

Simply speaking, Ukrainian authorities gave Pentagon a carte blanche and let them carry out dangerous biological experiments on the territory of Ukraine. Thereby, the American contractor was exempt from any taxes under Ukrainian legislation.

What did Ukrainian scientists and people of the country get in return? Free travel to international conferences “based on the tariffs for meals and lodging endorsed for official travel of US governmental officials”. A nice “compensation” for having most hazardous research conducted right on their doorstep.

This is not the “noble” assistance to Ukraine that American representatives are ranting about. This is cynical use of Ukraine’s territory and population for dangerous research that Washington does not want to have at home so that to not put its own population at risk.

We would not be surprised should similar facts come to light regarding the activity of US-sponsored labs in other parts of the globe. We call on states who provide their areas to Pentagon for such experiments to read carefully contract documents regarding their cooperation with the United States in the biological area. We fully support China’s demand to the United States to disclose information about activities of 360 US-controlled labs in the world.

Back to Ukraine. It is no coincidence that the US Defense Threat Reduction Agency chose the biolabs in Kiev, Odessa, Lvov, and Kharkov. They were the executors of the UP-8 project aimed at studying the pathogens of the Congo-Crimean hemorrhagic fever, leptospirosis and hantaviruses. From our point of view, the interest of US military biologists in these pathogens is related to the fact that they have natural foci both on the territory of Ukraine and in Russia, and their use can be disguised as natural outbreaks of diseases.

The Kharkov laboratory was also home to project P-781 on the study of ways of transmitting diseases to humans through bats. This work was done jointly with the infamous R. Lugar Center in Tbilisi.

In this context, we should make a special mention of the company “Black & Veatch” that the Pentagon chose as a contractor for Ukraine. This is not an ordinary business. For over 100 years, it has been working for the US armed forces, building military bases and facilities, including the labs in Los Alamos, where nuclear weapons were developed.

Research in the area of transmitting diseases to humans through bats is systematic and has been conducted in Ukrainian labs since at least 2009 under the direct supervision of specialists from the United States. During the implementation of these projects, six families of viruses (including coronaviruses) and three types of pathogenic bacteria (pathogens of plague, brucellosis and leptospirosis) were identified. Those pathogens are most favorable for the purposes of infection, as they are characterized by resistance to drugs and rapid speed of spread from animals to humans.

Within the framework of the FLU-FLYWAY project, the Kharkov Institute of Veterinary Medicine studied wild birds as vectors for the spread of avian influenza. At the same time, the conditions under which spread processes can become unmanageable, cause economic damage and pose risks to food security were assessed. Documents were discovered that confirm the involvement of the Kharkov Institute in the collection of avian influenza virus strains with high epidemic potential and capable of overcoming the interspecific barrier.

Defense Ministry of Russia keeps receiving more documents that prove the fact of transfer of blood serum samples of Ukrainian citizens to third countries, including Great Britain, Georgia, Germany. Having analyzed that data, we can say that Ukrainian experts were not aware of potential risks of transferring biological samples. They had to act blindly and did not realize the real goals of research conducted. This does not seem surprising if we recall that under the contract documents that I mentioned, they had a secondary role to play.

Information continues to be received about attempts to destroy biomaterials and documentation in laboratories in Ukraine in order to “cover up the tracks” of a military biological program.

We know that during the liquidation measures in the laboratory of veterinary medicine in Khlebodarskoye, the employees (citizens of Ukraine) were not even allowed into the building. This laboratory cooperates with Anti-Plague Research Institute named after Mechnikov in Odessa, which conducts research with pathogens of plague, anthrax, cholera, tularemia.

In an attempt to cover the tracks, biological waste from the laboratory in Khlebodarskoye was taken 120 km away towards the western border of Ukraine to the area of Tarutino and Berezino settlements. Defense Ministry of Russia keeps record of all these facts in order to have them legally assessed at a later stage.

We also must mention the emergency destruction of documents in Kherson biological laboratory. One of the reasons for such a rush may be the need to conceal from Russian experts the information about an outbreak of dirofilariasis, a disease transmitted by mosquitoes, that occurred in Kherson in 2019. Four cases of infection were detected in February, which is unusual for the life cycle of these insects, even taking into account the incubation period of the disease. We are also aware that in April 2018, representatives of the Pentagon visited local healthcare institutions, where they got acquainted with the results of the epidemiological investigation and copied medical documentation.

Western media, who readily perceive any fakes presented by Ukrainian authorities with the support of their Western sponsors, doubt the authenticity of the materials published by our Ministry of Defense. In this regard, let me draw your attention to the following fact. All documents we published had been signed by real US officials. Many of them were signed by head of the DTRA office at the US Embassy in Kiev Joanna Wintrall. This representative of the Pentagon is well known in the non-proliferation circles. Prior to Ukraine, she addressed elimination of chemical weapons in Libya. If journalists have doubts as to the authenticity of documents that we shared, I suggest they ask her directly whether this is really her signature on them.

I repeat that it is not just about Ukraine and the United States violating the BTWC. It is about evidence of high-risk military biological activity that has been underway in the middle of Eastern Europe until recently. Its implications could have “spilled” beyond the borders of Ukraine and even the entire region at any point. It is hard to imagine what toll it would have taken, i.a. on the European states. Perhaps it would have outmatched even the COVID-19 pandemic.

We already see alarming signs of such threat. For example, a sharp increase in cases of tuberculosis caused by new multi-resistant strains was detected among citizens living in Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics in 2018. During a mass outbreak recorded in the area of Peski settlement, more than 70 cases of the disease were detected, which ended in a rapid fatal outcome. This does not look like a coincidence.

In conclusion, let me comment on the words of UN Secretariat representatives who claim to have no proofs of military-purpose biological programs being carried out in Ukraine.

Under the BTWC, member states submit to the United Nations data regarding biological facilities and related activity. I mean confidence-building measures that are published for the purposes of monitoring the implementation of the Convention. Since 2016, the moment Ukraine embarked on the mentioned projects, including UP-4, UP-8, and Р-781, both the United States and Ukraine have knowingly omitted those projects from their reviews, even despite their clear military biological orientation.

That is why Russia for many years has been calling to strengthen the BTWC regime, adopt a legally binding protocol to the Convention that would allow to create an effective verification mechanism and bind member states to report on their military biological activity abroad. The United States has been opposed to this work for almost 20 years now and refused to provide such data. By the way, this is yet another question that US representatives evade answering.

The facts that we shared today and on 11 March are only the tip of the iceberg. Our Defense Ministry continues to receive and analyze new materials. We will keep the global community updated on the issue of Pentagon’s illegal activity in Ukraine.

Thank you.

Right of reply:

Mr. President,

Propaganda, disinformation, amateurism, baseless allegations, false flag operation – that’s what we heard today. Some statements repeated what was said on 11 March almost word-by-word. If you found nothing new in our today’s statement, you either were not listening or did not hear what we were saying. What we presented were not the conspiracy theories that we pried out of the deep abyss of the Internet. Those were new materials and documents that we had circulated among UNSC members. These documents elaborate on biological cooperation between Ukraine and the United States. I ask you to read those materials. If you can refute them, please do it. But do it by answering our questions rather than by spouting baseless allegations about Russian propaganda. You refuse to do this because you have nothing to say. Instead, you try accusing us of plans to use biological and chemical weapons in Ukraine. This is the height of cynicism. We already warned you that we had information that Ukrainian nationalists had delivered toxic chemical agents to some areas of Ukraine in order to carry out a provocation and blame Russia. This is what you call a false flag operation.

As I said, you, in particular the United States, did not listen carefully to us. We did not say (as the US representative would interpret it) that Ukraine had a military biological program of its own. We said the United States had such program, where Ukraine was used blindly. We cited facts about the growing incidence of dangerous diseases in Ukraine that could not be explained by simpler factors, but could be related to this sort of activity.

We heard again that the best argument you have to prove that no military biological activity was carried out in Ukraine is the opinion of the UN Secretariat. But as mentioned already, the United Nations cannot be aware of secret military biological programs. Those who implement them do not report it to the UN or whoever.

[kit]

Funny how the British Minister of defence is into petty lying. Then again, it's the same guy that was telling everyone that the Russian coast guard did not fire warning shots at the HMS Defencer. Forgetting there was a BBC reporter on board. And the Russians heard of Cameras.

The Telegraph had also shown that it is a tabloid that the National enquirer would be proud of.

[kit]

And now stealing from the Russians

https://www.axios.com/senators-to-discu ... dcc5c.html

the west has just become a bunch of robber barons

[sanjaykumar]

That’s not true.

[banrjeer]

It's not that bioweapons research was not carried out, but that extra bit of masala added by Scott Ritter speaking to the where a a virus can be tailored for anglosaxons or slavs is not plausible.

[yogeshkumar]

It's not that bioweapons research was not carried out, but that extra bit of masala added by Scott Ritter speaking to the where a a virus can be tailored for anglosaxons or slavs is not plausible.

Virus and pathogens can be tailored to be more effective against certain genes. It is extremely difficult to do.. but that is what "Bio research" is for.

[sanjaykumar]

As I have posted previously, the approach will likely involve targeting of specific allele frequencies. Or first to introduce a target in a population with a viral vector etc.

Totally reprehensible and unethical of course. But I am confident there are national groups in the US India China Russia developing race bombs.

The very thought fills me with dread.

[sanjaykumar]

Of course Israel can be added to that list.

[pravula]

As I have posted previously, the approach will likely involve targeting of specific allele frequencies. Or first to introduce a target in a population with a viral vector etc.

Totally reprehensible and unethical of course. But I am confident there are national groups in the US India China Russia developing race bombs.

The very thought fills me with dread.

So basically the three arrows of barbarik. Tag to destroy, tag to protect and destroyer arrows.

[banrjeer]

It's not that bioweapons research was not carried out, but that extra bit of masala added by Scott Ritter speaking to the where a a virus can be tailored for anglosaxons or slavs is not plausible.

Virus and pathogens can be tailored to be more effective against certain genes. It is extremely difficult to do.. but that is what "Bio research" is for.

You can tailor it for a species but not for "slavs vs others, differences within a species are non existent. For example Chimps are as susceptible to most human viruses and vice versa two species that branched 5-6 million years ago.

intra slav diffs would dwarf the slav-non slav differences, such a project is a non starter. In fact You can kill a brother and the sister would survive. there is no such racial selectivity.

[skumar]

Scott Ritter talks reasonably but his claim about Ukrainian bio-labs tailoring viruses aimed at slavic people is junk biology directed at gullible people.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxoMi53xDrY at around 2.40.

This calls his credibility into question.
But more interesting is that there is a community in the west thats open to a pro-Russian narrative.

What is there to disbelieve in this age of genetically targeted medicine and ancestry.com? He is an arms expert, not a geneticist. The words may not come out right. Genetic markers are difficult to tag to Slavic / any other group of people per se but nothing fundamentally impossible since 100% accuracy is not expected.

You can approach it from a "surely X cannot do it" angle but surely you know it is false for all X whether it is the Americans, Russians, Europeans, Chinese, heck even us.

[sanjaykumar]

Crude examples of targets include sickle cell hemoglobin alleles for black people, hemochromatosis and cystic fibrosis variants for Northern Europeans, Tay Sachs for ashkanazis, glucose 6 phosphate dehydrogenase for Mediterraneans, thalassmeia traits for Southern Europe, north India, southern China and Philippines.

The point is single allele frequencies even for one gene can discriminate , imperfectly, among different populations. And these examples are not based on obvious phenotype differences. Perhaps hox gene expression in embryology can, in principle, lead to physiogomic selection. Pigmentation pathways should have the Nazis all excited.

[chetak]

@ArnaudMafille · 21 Mar

10 wars, 6 millions killed, 1 Nobel Peace Prize, 0 sanction

[sanjaykumar]

Just for the sake of completeness, the pax3 gene is implicated in significant morphogenetic modelling of the nasal root, tip, medial canthus to nose distance. The level of detail available in biology is increasing perhaps exponentially.

I have full confidence in human folly. General biologicaldefence strategies against such targeting need to be developed. Treaties and undertakings are useless.

[vinod]

Putin has said he will accept only Russian ruble as payment for gas from unfriendly countries. They have got a week.
Putin has made his move on the board, now it is EU's turn. Biden is in Europe trying to shepherd them.
2 clear choices
1. No payment, Russia stops gas. Both EU and russian economies tanks. May be, just may be, Ukraine war could grind to a halt. Unlikely, since India trade deal is being worked out.
2. Pay up in ruble. Carry on getting gas. Say final words to Ukraine.

Waiting for EU's move...

[chanakyaa]

Not sure how payments end up being made, but the Ruble went from high 80s to euro before the crisis to 160, and near 109 after this announcement

[vinod]

I can think of few ways to get rouble
1. Start trading. Ie. Break sanctions
2. Buy ruble on open market. It will cause the rates to shoot up crazy
3. Buy it from russian central bank using gold
4. Unwind sanctions.

May be, there is more...

[sanjaykumar]

Interesting ploy. I can anticipate traders shorting the dollar. Not only does the rouble go up but the dollar goes down.

[banrjeer]

Scott Ritter talks reasonably but his claim about Ukrainian bio-labs tailoring viruses aimed at slavic people is junk biology directed at gullible people.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxoMi53xDrY at around 2.40.

This calls his credibility into question.
But more interesting is that there is a community in the west thats open to a pro-Russian narrative.

What is there to disbelieve in this age of genetically targeted medicine and ancestry.com? He is an arms expert, not a geneticist. The words may not come out right. Genetic markers are difficult to tag to Slavic / any other group of people per se but nothing fundamentally impossible since 100% accuracy is not expected.

You can approach it from a "surely X cannot do it" angle but surely you know it is false for all X whether it is the Americans, Russians, Europeans, Chinese, heck even us.

This whole war seems like a complete crapshoot. No one knows the outcome.

There are many in the finance sector who are spooked by whether the dollar may collapse and are railing agains Victoria nulands stupid coup and war and thinking about how to hedge against the dollar.

Others have decided that putin is almost dead and Russia will soon get split into vassal states.

As for biology think about resistance to bubonic plague or malaria(correlates with thalessimia) first of all it’s not some clear cut binary trait that guarantees survival. Second A good chunk of the population has it and others dont. they are hopelessly mixed up and blended in a completely random fashion.

Scott Ritter makes a lot of sense when talking about military matters but on the bio stuff he either adding his own masala knowingly or been fed some stories like the the incubator stuff like during the invasion of Kuwait.

Designing a virus with such selectivity is a fairy tale like claiming you can regulate brownian motion or diffusion of gas.

[sanjaykumar]

Indeed a fairy tale like Einstein’ assessment of quantum mechanics. (Lord) Kelvin’s age of the earth etc. fairy tales keep excellent company.