Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 29 Mar 2022 06:50

Ru and China are forced to depend a lot more on each other.

Ru needs to hedge both with and against China otherwise it will shrink to nothing.

For Bharat as well , Miltech wise it is vulnerable especially on the aircraft engine front. So it needs not just the arms purchase but deeper tech ties with Ru for strategic leverage.

Both the Unkil and its vassals as well as Ru will need the desis as leverage against leaning too much towards china.

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 29 Mar 2022 06:53

chanakyaa wrote:Next few weeks could bring some interesting times to EU, especially with respect to oil/gas/heating and broader economy, if pootinsky is serious about March 31 deadline, Ruble quickly recovering against Dollar and euro. UKies could be the first casualty.

Who will blink first?
Vladimir Putin just upped the ante in the economic war between Russia and the West.

By announcing on Wednesday that so-called unfriendly countries — a list including EU countries and the United States — will have to pay for Russian gas imports in rubles, the Russian president is challenging Western efforts to punish Moscow for invading Ukraine while carving out crucial Russian energy imports from sanctions.

"I made the decision to implement within the shortest possible time the package of measures to transfer payments — we will start with that — for our natural gas supplied to the so-called ‘unfriendly’ states to Russian rubles," Putin said.

It's a high-stakes gamble: Either the West caves and complies with Putin’s demands, or it balks and risks seeing how far Putin will go in withholding gas supplies and potentially cutting off the cash needed by his flailing domestic economy.

...

They have held off from using this card perhaps because it can be played only once. So play it now or next winter? China is an alternate market for natural gas and they need a bridge before more eastern pipelines come online.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 29 Mar 2022 07:56

https://www.wionews.com/world/known-for ... rld-466251

Known for 9/11 prediction, blind psychic Baba Vanga said Vladimir Putin would become 'Lord of the World'

Vanga died at the age of 85 and was known as 'Nostradamus of the Balkans'. In the latest development, it seems to have been suggested that she predicted Vladimir Putin and Russia will one day dominate the world.

“All will thaw, as if ice, only one remain untouched - Vladimir’s glory, glory of Russia. Too much, it is brought in a victim. Nobody can stop Russia. All will be removed by her from the way and not only will be kept, but also becomes the lord of the world,” Vanga in a meeting with writer Valentin Sidorov, said in 1979, BirminghamLive reported.

Vanga had predicted glorious future for Russia once more, the Daily Post reported.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 29 Mar 2022 08:44

Binkovs take on the Russian offensive. looks like flawed assumption led to flawed planning. its a big mess in the making. some have been critical of zelensky but as time goes on his decision to fight and not capitulate looks like the correct one. sadly it may mean this will be a bigger mess for Ukranie to deal with.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vqq6zYYpvUM&t=34s

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 29 Mar 2022 10:41

IndraD wrote:Roman Abramovich and two more negotiators showed signs of poisoning but since then have recovered fully, it is understood it was a warning rather than a kill attempt https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... s-ukraine/

Interesting, that the west has been claiming about Russian use of chemical weapons.

Yet the poisoning is of Roman Abramovich. Why?

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 29 Mar 2022 10:56

Atmavik wrote:Binkovs take on the Russian offensive. looks like flawed assumption led to flawed planning. its a big mess in the making. some have been critical of zelensky but as time goes on his decision to fight and not capitulate looks like the correct one. sadly it may mean this will be a bigger mess for Ukranie to deal with.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vqq6zYYpvUM&t=34s

I haven't watched this video till now. Personally, i am quite sceptical about any one claiming any insights into Russian war planning and aims in Ukraine.

Either from Russia because of maskrovka. The western nations because of the psychotic depiction of Putin for the last 15 + years.

Having said that, attention has to be paid at few points. Such as,

1) Russian forces at the highest numbered 1.8 lakhs. Ukraine in contrast could draw approximately 3. Lakhs at the start of the conflict. Force ratio of 1 : .06, in favour of defending forces. Why?

2) Inspite of force superiority, the Ukrainian's are ready to discuss neutrality with Russia. As a part of negotiated end to the conflict. Why?

3) The multiple Russian operations all accross Ukraine. Were these designed to fix Ukrainian forces in place. While Russians went about achieving their real aims. Such as, securing independence of the eastern provinces and securing Crimea. By creating facts on the ground which makes it impossible for the Ukrainian's to deny and gives Russian's bargaining chips for diplomacy.

4) Highlighting Ukrainian WMD program for international weapons inspection and neutralization. Can be done as a part of the peace process. This is an iffy proposition, but can be an objective.

But i don't take it very seriously

5) trapping and degradation of Nazi fighters in eastern Ukraine.

I think that Russian's have accomplished most of the aims they set out to achieve.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 29 Mar 2022 11:01

Atmavik wrote:Binkovs take on the Russian offensive. looks like flawed assumption led to flawed planning. its a big mess in the making. some have been critical of zelensky but as time goes on his decision to fight and not capitulate looks like the correct one. sadly it may mean this will be a bigger mess for Ukranie to deal with.

I'd rather take Baba Vanga more seriously than this dude. Every video of his shows all things western winning

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 29 Mar 2022 12:33

Lots of SM channels pushing Russia is losing narrative without ever having set foot in the war zone. I'm expecting it to reach a feverish pitch this week.

Why hasn't Russia mobilised more troops at the start of the invasion and even after 1 month?
IMHO 3 reasons
1. They expected Ukr leadership to capitulate fairly quickly - possibly due to poor intelligence and misreading, which caused Putin to dress down his mil & pol advisors
2. The realised its a blessing in disguise since they could gauge the depth and sophistication of the Ukr response & tactics which are actually being driven by the US without risking their best and biggest forces upfront, and they continue to hold back in case the US gets directly involved
3. Now, they have seen results can be achieved by missile, artillery and arial bombardment to soften targets, and then capture territory without massively increasing troop numbers. They have however pressed Chechen Kadyrovite forces into the offensive with good results, Putin just promoted their leader Kadyrov to Lieutenant General.

Why do Ukrainians - Zelenskiy actually, seem willing to negotiate if Russia is already losing?
I don't think they seriously are. Zelinskiy is offering stuff he doesnt have. Donetsk and Luhansk were already out of Ukr control before the invasion started. NATO was, is and will be unwilling to take them in. EU membership mirage is, well, a mirage forever now. As for neutrality who will lend credence to a TV actor propped up by Ukr mafias, Neo-nazis and US state dept? His words mean nothing to Putin, who sees him worthy of contempt (because he opted for the destruction of his people and country chasing unobtania) and will never negotiate in person or otherwise with him.

So then why the offer from Zelenskiy to negotiate?
To buy time, perhaps even slow down the invasion a bit hoping to use that time to create an excuse for the US to get involved. I'm dropping all pretence that NATO and EU are still behind this, they've realised late they've been duped by Unkil and will start melting away. Macron surely will once French Presidential Elections are over in 2 weeks from now. EU has some 4 million refugees to deal with now. Putin will see no reason to slowdown if he is winning, and especially not, if he is NOT winning after having staked so much.

Russia _is_ doing diplomacy, to paraphrase Clausewitz "War is diplomacy by other means". The more they achieve their objectives in Ukraine the better terms they can impose. And those include total annihilation of Neo nazis. We keep hearing that they are only a couple of 1000s, but Zelenskiy and his masters have put them in all key positions in military, police etc and they have inturn recruited tens of thousands over the past few years. Putin won't stop until the last of them is dead. Its reported than many of them fighting in the east have started ditching uniforms, put on civvies and melted into civilian population. They prefer to live to fight another day for their ideology than die for puppet Zelenskiy or the US.

Lastly, bio weapons etc. Do we see Russia really trusting international inspectors - who will come from where ? How any countries have the expertise to inspect such stuff? Where would these experts have studied, done research, published papers? Putin has gone way beyond caring for international opinion. If you discount NATO, Aus & Japan, 70% of the world's population is actually not backing the West at all. In fact, he actually has international opinion behind him, all this media frenzy notwithstanding.

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 29 Mar 2022 12:42

The vid shows that Russia has gained a good amount of territory with really low troop count.
If this is called poor then perhaps it means that they were willing to give up even more

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 29 Mar 2022 15:17

The level of entitlement is amazing, close second to Paki levels:

Ukranian foreign minister wants to ban letter Z as Russian use it:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/co ... reappshare

To be frank, the Ukranians have played their infowar strategy very very well. I suspect that the whole thing is masterminded by the West though with very little Ukranian input.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 29 Mar 2022 17:08

Two state refiners to buy Sakhalin-1 oil

Two Indian state-run refiners have won the contract to buy 1.4 million barrels of Russian oil from ONGC's Sakhalin-1 project, according to people familiar with the matter.

ONGC Videsh, overseas arm of the state-run explorer, has a 20% stake in the Sakhalin-1 project in Siberia and is responsible for sale of its share of oil from the project.

Two state-run refiners won the bid to buy 700,000 barrels each from ONGC Videsh for May loading, they said. It's not yet clear which companies have won the bids.

Refiners are likely to pay ONGC Videsh in rupees for the oil purchased, they said. Indian refiners have been picking up Russian oil cargoes from various international commodity traders in the past few weeks but do not foresee any payment problems as the energy trade does not face western sanctions. The traders are non-Russian entities.

All recent purchase deals are on a delivered basis, leaving sellers with the responsibility of arranging shipping and insurance for their cargoes. Financiers and insurers have been reluctant to back Russian oil cargoes, fearing the effects of US-led sanctions.

ONGC Videsh's oil from Sakhalin is unlikely to face any shipping or insurance hurdle as it's the equity oil of an Indian company, said a person familiar with the matter.

There has been talk about creating an alternative mechanism that bypasses the SWIFT framework and dollars to pay for trade between Russia and India. Junior oil minister Rameswar Teli, however, told Parliament on Monday that there is no proposal under consideration from Russia or any other country for the purchase of crude oil in rupees.

State-run GAIL, the country's largest natural gas marketer, is continuing to pay in dollars for the liquefied natural gas (LNG) it imports from Russia's Gazprom.

Russian oil has traditionally comprised barely 1-2% of Indian refiners' annual crude diet. Its availability at a deep discount at a time when oil prices are going through the roof has made it attractive to Indian refiners.

Russian oil is available at a discount of about $30 to dated Brent, the international benchmark, which helps offset the expensive freight. It takes about three weeks for Russian cargo to reach India, compared with a week from the Gulf.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 29 Mar 2022 17:20

banrjeer wrote: They have held off from using this card perhaps because it can be played only once. So play it now or next winter? China is an alternate market for natural gas and they need a bridge before more eastern pipelines come online.

is there any news indicating it has been held off?

Separately, Ukies and Rus talking again. Davyd Arakhamia who famously showed up with a baseball cap in two previous meetings, now showed up in a proper jacket. After loosing few cities and some klibrs for breakfast, lunch and dinner and, perhaps, realization that waar is not same as running IT companies, some humility may have kicked in.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 29 Mar 2022 18:11

At the talks in Turkey, Russia has said it will limit operations in and around Kyiv to increase mutual trust.

Russian advance there has stalled anyway or was probably an attempt to draw Ukranian forces while the real action happens down south

John · Post by **John** » 29 Mar 2022 18:26

Tanaji wrote:At the talks in Turkey, Russia has said it will limit operations in and around Kyiv to increase mutual trust.

Russian advance there has stalled anyway or was probably an attempt to draw Ukranian forces while the real action happens down south

Ukraine recaptured Irpin and Trostianets along with few other cities in past 48 hrs not sure if that’s the reason for this gesture.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 29 Mar 2022 22:02

1/Big Arrow War—a primer. For all those scratching their heads in confusion, or dusting off their dress uniforms for the Ukrainian victory parade in Kiev, over the news about Russia’s “strategic shift”, you might want to re-familiarize yourself with basic military concepts.

2/ Maneuver warfare is a good place to start. Understand Russia started its “special military operation” with a severe manpower deficit—200,000 attackers to some 600,000 defenders (or more). Classic attritional conflict was never an option. Russian victory required maneuver.

3/ Maneuver war is more psychological than physical and focuses more on the operational than on the tactical level. Maneuver is relational movement—how you deploy and move your forces in relation to your opponent. Russian maneuver in the first phase of its operation support this.

4/ The Russians needed to shape the battlefield to their advantage. In order to do this, they needed to control how Ukraine employed it’s numerically superior forces, while distributing their own smaller combat power to best accomplish this objective.

5/ Strategically, to facilitate the ability to maneuver between the southern, central, and northern fronts, Russia needed to secure a land bridge between Crimea and Russia. The seizure of the coastal city of Mariupol was critical to this effort. Russia has accomplished this task.

6/ While this complex operation unfolded, Russia needed to keep Ukraine from maneuvering its numerically superior forces in a manner that disrupted the Mariupol operation. This entailed the use of several strategic supporting operations—feints, fixing operations, and deep attack.

7/ The concept of a feint is simple—a military force either is seen as preparing to attack a given location, or actually conducts an attack, for the purpose of deceiving an opponent into committing resources in response to the perceived or actual actions.

8/ The use of the feint played a major role in Desert Storm, where Marine Amphibious forces threatened the Kuwaiti coast, forcing Iraq to defend against an attack that never came, and where the 1st Cavalry Division actually attacked Wadi Al Batin to pin down the Republican Guard.

9/ The Russians made extensive use of the feint in Ukraine, with Amphibious forces off Odessa freezing Ukrainian forces there, and a major feint attack toward Kiev compelling Ukraine to reinforce their forces there. Ukraine was never able to reinforce their forces in the east.

10/ Fixing operations were also critical. Ukraine had assembled some 60,000-100,000 troops in the east, opposite Donbas. Russia carried out a broad fixing attack designed to keep these forces fully engaged and unable to maneuver in respect to other Russian operations.

11/ During Desert Storm, two Marine Divisions were ordered to carry out similar fixing attacks against Iraqi forces deployed along the Kuwaiti-Saudi border, tying down significant numbers of men and material that could not be used to counter the main US attack out west.

12/ The Russian fixing attack pinned the main Ukrainian concentration of forces in the east, and drove them away from Mariupol, which was invested and reduced. Supporting operations out of Crimea against Kherson expanded the Russian land bridge. This phase is now complete.

13/ Russia also engaged in a campaign of strategic deep attack designed to disrupt and destroy Ukrainian logistics, command & control, and air power and long-range fire support. Ukraine is running out of fuel and ammo, cannot coordinate maneuver, and has no meaningful Air Force.

14/ Russia is redeploying some of its premier units from where they had been engaged in feint operations in northern Kiev to where they can support the next phase of the operation, namely the liberation of the Donbas and the destruction of the main Ukrainian force in the east.

15/ This is classic maneuver warfare. Russia will now hold Ukraine in the north and south while its main forces, reinforced by the northern units, Marines, and forces freed up by the capture of Mariupol, seek to envelope and destroy 60,000 Ukrainian forces in the east.

16/ This is Big Arrow War at its finest, something Americans used to know but forgot in the deserts and mountains of Afghanistan and Iraq. It also explains how 200,000 Russians have been able to defeat 600,000 Ukrainians. Thus ends the primer on maneuver warfare, Russian style.

https://twitter.com/RealScottRitter/sta ... 1HfLB2TqOg

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 29 Mar 2022 22:12

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-spee ... _permalink
Biden at the Improv: Ukraine and the Dangers of Foreign Policy by Open Mic
What if someone takes seriously his talk of U.S. troop deployments or regime change in Russia?

At what point does Joe Biden’s verbal incontinence start to become a mortal threat to Americans?

Until now we’ve mostly had the luxury of observing the president’s many rhetorical infelicities with a mixture of mild puzzlement and gentle concern, as one might watch an aging relative struggle to remember the name of one’s children.

https://www.theamericanconservative.com ... -doctrine/
The Bush-Biden Doctrine
President Biden’s revival of the Bush Doctrine is dangerously out of tune with the deeper processes transforming world order

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/2 ... n-00021123
U.S. training Ukrainian troops in Poland, Biden seems to reveal

Fixing a previous gaffe in a Monday press conference, the president appeared to let slip an undisclosed detail of the U.S. effort to bolster Ukraine's fighting forces.

That’s not what Biden said Monday. After delivering remarks about the White House’s new budget request, Biden answered a reporter’s question about comments he made when meeting the 82nd Airborne in Poland, in which he implied American forces would be going to Ukraine. Biden denied that’s what he meant, adding: “We’re talking about helping train the Ukrainian troops that are in Poland.”

Pressed again, Biden said, “I was referring to being with, and talking with, the Ukrainian troops that are in Poland.”

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 29 Mar 2022 22:16

Once, asked by Ms. Merkel what his greatest mistake had been, the Russian president replied: “To trust you.”

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 29 Mar 2022 22:53

NATO thought a war in their lands is not possible anymore - alas here we are - now either they choose to relearn how they fought in WW2 or accept a divided Ukraine. Karma is a b****. This is Russia's win any way you slice it.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 29 Mar 2022 22:53

Thanks for sharing that IndraD.

15/ This is classic maneuver warfare. Russia will now hold Ukraine in the north and south while its main forces, reinforced by the northern units, Marines, and forces freed up by the capture of Mariupol, seek to envelope and destroy 60,000 Ukrainian forces in the east.

Doesnt fully explain why Russians are letting go of towns around Kyiv like Irpin, Hostomel etc in the past few days to redeploy, which Ukrainians are touting as victories. The troops around Kyiv are some 400 odd kms away from Donbass/eastern sector - a bit too far to join there. The siege of Kyiv needs to be kept up for the prize it represents.

When they see the encirclement coming, I suspect a lot of Ukr troops will ditch uniforms and blend into civilian population (already started in Mariupol) to hopefully fight a guerrilla war later or loot whatever they can and escape west into Europe in the chaotic aftermath.

RA needs to control and interdict east-west routes and railway lines in the next phase, something they haven't done so far.

RaviB · Post by **RaviB** » 29 Mar 2022 23:13

I haven't seen this theory yet and am unsure how reliable it is but it explains several data points such as the slow and underpowered attack and the fact that the first wave included policemen, and the move by move intelligence that the West had. This could also be disinfo so take it with a grain of salt.

https://www.thelowdownblog.com/2022/03/ ... cause.html

Is Putin's Invasion Failing Because Russian Intelligence Embezzled Billions Intended As Bribes For Ukrainians?

It's even wilder than the headline suggests. The FSB embezzled every dime of the billions in bribe money intended for Ukraine, which they figured was a low risk crime because no one - not even Putin - would be crazy enough to invade Ukraine, the largest country in Europe, and the bribe money was in cash so there was no accounting. Meaning no one would miss the dough.

But then Putin announced he WAS going to invade. And the military made clear it wouldn't do so unless the Ukrainian military had been bought off so it wouldn't fight, which the FSB had assured everyone had been taken care of. But since they hadn't been bought off, the FSB had a big problem. Which they attempted to solve by leaking the invasion news to the US (hence Biden's preternaturally superb intelligence on the invasion, including assassination attempts on Zelensky) hoping that would dissuade Putin. And the rest, as they say, is history.

The source quoted in the above:

Sergey Beseda, head of the FSB 5th-Branch (Ukraine portfolio), has been arrested, along with his deputy, Anatoly Bolyukh for embezzlement from the state. The whole of the FSB 5th-Branch is under criminal investigation and many are also under arrest for embezzlement. For years Putin has been placing billions of dollars into the 5th-Branch budget for bribing Ukrainian military, secret service, internal security officers, and politicians. (But) Beseda and Anatoly Bolyukh have been embezzling every dime of the bribe budget, billions of dollars. And everyone in the 5th-Branch was getting a piece of the action. It was the perfect crime as spy bribes are paid in cash and (they thought) not even Putin was crazy enough to invade Ukraine

I am going to tell you a story which explains how and why Vladimir Putin (and the Russian military) so horribly misjudged the Ukrainian war, a war, the outcome of which, will change the future of our planet Earth.

It is well known that Sergey Beseda, head of the FSB 5th-Branch (Ukraine portfolio), has been arrested, along with his deputy, Anatoly Bolyukh. (The FSB is basically the former KGB.) (Beseda is a very high-ranking spy, his rank the equivalent of a U.S. 4-star general, Bolyukh a 3-star.)

It is also known that Beseda and Bolyukh were arrested for something that at first glance seems rather strange--embezzlement from the state. Publicly unknown, but interesting indeed is, the whole of the FSB 5th-Branch is under criminal investigation and many are under arrest for...embezzlement from the state.

Unknown to most is that for years Vladimir Putin has been placing billions of dollars into the 5th-Branch budget for the express and sole purpose of bribing Ukrainian officials, that is, military officers, Ukrainian secret service officers, Ukrainian internal security officers, and politicians. After Yanukovych was ejected in 2014, Putin got serious about bringing Ukraine back into the fold.

Here is the fun part. I am told by people I know (who are still in the game) that for years Sergey Beseda and Anatoly Bolyukh have been embezzling every dime of the bribe budget--literally billions of dollars. And everyone in the 5th-Branch was getting a piece of the action, all the way down to the field operatives who were supposed to be doing all the bribing. It was the perfect crime, spy bribes are paid in cash, and nobody, not even Vladimir Putin was crazy enough to invade Ukraine so nobody in the FSB was ever going to try to collect on the bribes that were never paid.

And this went on for years--since at least 2014.

Until, late last year.

Sometime in the October-November 2021 time-frame, Vladimir Putin called a meeting with a select few people, including Beseda and Bolyukh, and told them that Russia was going to invade Ukraine.

To have seen the look on the faces of Beseda and Bolyukh, because once again, none of the preparatory Ukrainian bribes had ever been paid. Putin had been given reports saying they had been paid, but in reality, not a penny had ever been spent on bribing--Ukrainians.

And as the story goes, Vladimir Putin was depending on--actually counting on--all these bribes having been paid. Because during the meeting, Putin discounted any resistance from Ukraine, saying all he had to do was kick on the door and the whole country would fall--in two days--because for years the FSB 5th-Branch had been doing such a good job at bribing Ukrainians.

I shi* you not.

The Russian army and air force signed off on the plan, with the assurance that the Ukrainian military was bribed and would not fight. The plan even included sending Russian police officers in the first wave of attack (to direct and control traffic in Kyiv) because according to the FSB 5th-Branch there was not going to be any resistance.

Beseda and Bolyukh (indeed the whole of the FSB 5th-Branch) now had a problem. A very big problem indeed.

What do spies do when they have a problem (that they want to keep secret from the boss) and they can`t solve all by themselves? They go talk to other spies and ask if they will help them solve their problem. And that is exactly what Sergey Beseda and Anatoly Bolyukh did.

It is well known that US intelligence (CIA) had very fine-grained, exact, precise, perfect, word-for-word intelligence on Putin`s invasion plans very early on in the game. Yep. You guessed it.

The perfect way to keep the secret about the whole FSB embezzlement scheme was to make certain there was no invasion. And the best way to make sure there was no invasion was to tell the CIA that there was going to be an invasion. And that is exactly what happened. Sergey Beseda and Anatoly Bolyukh gave it up. All of it. And kept giving it up, hoping beyond hope that once the secret was out, Vladimir Putin would call the Ukrainian invasion off.

And this is why President Biden (the CIA and MI-6) had months of advance warning and a crystal clear view into Putin`s invasion plans, the FSB 5th-Branch, almost everybody in the 5th-Branch was mainlining intelligence into CIA/MI-6 in a vain attempt to save their lives.

Sergey Beseda and Anatoly Bolyukh?

Yeah, you won`t be seeing them again.

Edit
Adding this video at kit ji's suggestion

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9A-u8EoWcI

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 29 Mar 2022 23:16

Well, news reports that Russia has said it will scale back operations around Kyiv & Chernihiv (city just north of it) during negotiations in Turkey today. US and Ukr are pooh-poohing and asking for more.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 29 Mar 2022 23:24

V_Raman wrote:NATO thought a war in their lands is not possible anymore - alas here we are - now either they choose to relearn how they fought in WW2 or accept a divided Ukraine. Karma is a b****. This is Russia's win any way you slice it.

No it is not and it's delusional to believe so. Until just a couple of months ago, it was unthinkable both in the East and West if someone said Ukraine can withstand a Russia invasion. This entire fiasco is a paradigm shift in the making and if we still believe in the same myths of yesterday, we will not be making our position strong. No matter who the winner in this conflict is, Russia is the biggest loser out of every party here followed closely by Ukraine. In man, material, influence, economy, prospects, politics and in every other field, Russia lost at least a decade or two and will take them that much time to climb out of this mess just to be where they were until a couple of months ago. For India's POV, obviously this is not good and we need to make our moves accordingly. But blindly saying "This is Russia's win" is being purposefully going against the naked reality.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 30 Mar 2022 00:07

Max Blumenthal @MaxBlumenthal

The BBC & CNN's lone source for 300 dead in the Mariupol theater is a single pro-Azov official no longer in the city.

13 days since the suspicious blast & still no photo or video evidence, no images of casualties or rescuers, no independent confirmation.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 30 Mar 2022 00:42

MRV @MRVChennai

Russia does not know how to stop. Ukraine does not who will stop. US does not know why to stop. China does not know when to stop. India does not know where to intervene.

kit · Post by **kit** » 30 Mar 2022 01:07

RaviB wrote:I haven't seen this theory yet and am unsure how reliable it is but it explains several data points such as the slow and underpowered attack and the fact that the first wave included policemen, and the move by move intelligence that the West had. This could also be disinfo so take it with a grain of salt.

https://www.thelowdownblog.com/2022/03/ ... cause.html

Yeah, you won`t be seeing them again.

[/quote]

Did anyone see that video where Putin is talking to the head of FSB ? .. Recommend you watch it..and then read this !!

Truth is stranger than fiction., i kid you not !

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 30 Mar 2022 02:43

Jay wrote:
V_Raman wrote:NATO thought a war in their lands is not possible anymore - alas here we are - now either they choose to relearn how they fought in WW2 or accept a divided Ukraine. Karma is a b****. This is Russia's win any way you slice it.
No it is not and it's delusional to believe so. Until just a couple of months ago, it was unthinkable both in the East and West if someone said Ukraine can withstand a Russia invasion. This entire fiasco is a paradigm shift in the making and if we still believe in the same myths of yesterday, we will not be making our position strong. No matter who the winner in this conflict is, Russia is the biggest loser out of every party here followed closely by Ukraine. In man, material, influence, economy, prospects, politics and in every other field, Russia lost at least a decade or two and will take them that much time to climb out of this mess just to be where they were until a couple of months ago. For India's POV, obviously this is not good and we need to make our moves accordingly. But blindly saying "This is Russia's win" is being purposefully going against the naked reality.

It's a clear tactical gain for Russia. Longer term it could be a loss/stalemate/advantage based on how they play

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Mar 2022 03:08

A couple of old articles that predict the mess:
https://www.counterpunch.org/2016/08/25 ... on-empire/

and Brezenski's original article:

https://www.the-american-interest.com/2 ... alignment/
It was always about preventing Eurasia's consolidation.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 30 Mar 2022 03:47

the arsonists are now pretending to be the firefighters

@ANI · 1h

Food prices are skyrocketing in low and middle-income countries as Russia chokes off Ukrainian exports...We are particularly concerned about countries like Lebanon, Pakistan, Yemen, Morocco and others which rely heavily on Ukrainian imports to feed their populations: US at UNSC

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 30 Mar 2022 05:13

Cyrano wrote:Thanks for sharing that IndraD.
15/ This is classic maneuver warfare. Russia will now hold Ukraine in the north and south while its main forces, reinforced by the northern units, Marines, and forces freed up by the capture of Mariupol, seek to envelope and destroy 60,000 Ukrainian forces in the east.
Doesnt fully explain why Russians are letting go of towns around Kyiv like Irpin, Hostomel etc in the past few days to redeploy, which Ukrainians are touting as victories. The troops around Kyiv are some 400 odd kms away from Donbass/eastern sector - a bit too far to join there. The siege of Kyiv needs to be kept up for the prize it represents.

When they see the encirclement coming, I suspect a lot of Ukr troops will ditch uniforms and blend into civilian population (already started in Mariupol) to hopefully fight a guerrilla war later or loot whatever they can and escape west into Europe in the chaotic aftermath.

RA needs to control and interdict east-west routes and railway lines in the next phase, something they haven't done so far.

I have never heard of Russians claiming to have captured irpin. There was fighting going on but never a confirmation of capturing the city. So, the Russians probably pulled backhand Ukrainians are claiming it as victory. It is a small victory which Ukrainians are invested to hold.
I don't think hostomel will be given up.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 30 Mar 2022 05:20

chetak wrote:the arsonists are now pretending to be the firefighters

@ANI · 1h

Food prices are skyrocketing in low and middle-income countries as Russia chokes off Ukrainian exports...We are particularly concerned about countries like Lebanon, Pakistan, Yemen, Morocco and others which rely heavily on Ukrainian imports to feed their populations: US at UNSC

Time for Modiji to stand up tall in this hour of darkness and begin export of Wheat and Rice to the affected countries at current international market price. Except bakis who should pay additional 7.86% for convenience charges.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 30 Mar 2022 05:23

vimal wrote:
chetak wrote:the arsonists are now pretending to be the firefighters

Time for Modiji to stand up tall in this hour of darkness and begin export of Wheat and Rice to the affected countries at current international market price. Except bakis who should pay additional 7.86% for convenience charges.

we need need to see wheat at market prices to offset the loss in sunflower oil imports. can our 'Anna dattas' stop protesting and grow sunflower?

India buys Russian sunoil at record high price as Ukraine supplies halt
https://www.reuters.com/business/retail ... 0expensive.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Mar 2022 08:26

Atmavik Should promote air fryer and use less cooking oil.

skumar · Post by **skumar** » 30 Mar 2022 21:18

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 30 Mar 2022 21:29

ramana wrote:Atmavik Should promote air fryer and use less cooking oil.

I know … the amount of cooking oil we import is ridiculous. abt 80 % of it is imported. We need a plan to use less oil and grow more oil seeds

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 30 Mar 2022 22:21

banrjeer wrote:
Jay wrote:
No it is not and it's delusional to believe so. Until just a couple of months ago, it was unthinkable both in the East and West if someone said Ukraine can withstand a Russia invasion. This entire fiasco is a paradigm shift in the making and if we still believe in the same myths of yesterday, we will not be making our position strong. No matter who the winner in this conflict is, Russia is the biggest loser out of every party here followed closely by Ukraine. In man, material, influence, economy, prospects, politics and in every other field, Russia lost at least a decade or two and will take them that much time to climb out of this mess just to be where they were until a couple of months ago. For India's POV, obviously this is not good and we need to make our moves accordingly. But blindly saying "This is Russia's win" is being purposefully going against the naked reality.
It's a clear tactical gain for Russia. Longer term it could be a loss/stalemate/advantage based on how they play

A strange observation. Any country devastated by war ( in modern time) have emerged more modern and prosperous after devastation. example Bagdad, Beirut, Kabul, Hanoi,Tripoli.....heck Mogadishu has better telecommunication the Paris. JMT

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 30 Mar 2022 23:17

kit wrote: Did anyone see that video where Putin is talking to the head of FSB ? .. Recommend you watch it..and then read this !!
Truth is stranger than fiction., i kid you not !

Some of the best managers I worked with reacted like that during our annual strategy & business planning meetings when someone with certain responsibilities stood up and babbled wishy-washy stuff. Their careers were done after that.

These guys are discussing to decide on infinitely more grave matters and the geezer is all over the place. He deserved what he got. Full marks to Putin.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 31 Mar 2022 00:21

Atmavik wrote:
ramana wrote:Atmavik Should promote air fryer and use less cooking oil.

I know … the amount of cooking oil we import is ridiculous. abt 80 % of it is imported. We need a plan to use less oil and grow more oil seeds

Minor nitpick. 60% not 80%.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... s?from=mdr

India imports around 60 per cent of its consumption of edible oils’, and palm oils constitute around 60 per cent of the imports of edible oils.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 31 Mar 2022 00:32

Russian military comments on actions near Ukraine’s capital
The Defense Ministry says that main goal of the operation’s “first stage” – to limit Kiev’s capabilities on key Donbass direction – has been fulfilled
https://www.rt.com/russia/552996-milita ... v-donbass/

Russian troops near the Ukrainian cities of Kiev and Chernigov are regrouping as the goal of the first stage of their military operation has been completed, the Defense Ministry announced on Wednesday. During a regular press briefing, the ministry spokesperson, Major General Igor Konashenkov, said the “planned regrouping of troops is taking place in Kiev and Chernigov directions.”

He explained that the initial stage of Moscow’s military operation involved forcing Ukrainian military “to concentrate its forces, means, resources and military equipment to hold large settlements in these directions, including Kiev,” to tie them up, while avoiding storming the cities, and to defeat them in such a way that would prevent them from using these forces “in the main direction of operations of our Armed Forces – in the Donbass.”

Simultaneously, according to the ministry spokesman, Russia, in order to create “all the necessary conditions for carrying out the final stage of the operation to liberate the People’s Republics of Donbass” continued targeting “long-term defensive fortifications created by the Kiev regime over eight years.”

Simultaneously, according to the ministry spokesman, Russia, in order to create “all the necessary conditions for carrying out the final stage of the operation to liberate the People’s Republics of Donbass” continued targeting “long-term defensive fortifications created by the Kiev regime over eight years.”

All main lines of communications, supply and approach of reserves are taken under full control. The air defense systems of Ukraine, the airfield infrastructure, the largest military depots, training and concentration centers for mercenaries were destroyed. Work on them continues. Thus, all the main tasks of the Russian Armed Forces in the directions of Kiev and Chernigov have been completed.

Therefore, Konashenkov underlined, the purpose of the Russian forces’ regrouping “is to intensify operations in priority areas and, above all, to complete the operation for the complete liberation of the Donbass.”

On Tuesday, following another round of the negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul, Russian Deputy Minister of Defense Alexander Fomin announced that “a decision was made to drastically, in several times, reduce the military activity on the approaches to Kiev and Chernigov.” He explained this decision, on the one hand, by the fact that the talks with Kiev were entering “the practical stage,” and, on the other hand, by Russia’s wish “to increase mutual trust and to create the necessary conditions for the further development of negotiations.” Thus, the announcement was considered by many as a ‘goodwill gesture’ from Moscow

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 31 Mar 2022 01:04

^^ su Swamy is an ‘educated Sidhu’

bala · Post by **bala** » 31 Mar 2022 01:10

I have a sneaking suspicion that Rus Soviath wants to drag out the whole thing, notwithstanding the chai-biscoot sessions. Initially they probably wanted a quick assault and settlement but the way things are with sanctions and NATO a 'no show' but being behind the scenes, Rus wants to drag it out and see where this one goes. They can take their time and study all the machinations going on within Ukraine, learn a lot from the techniques used and plan things out in the future. Sanctions are going to fail past end of March, when Rubles will be the only currency for Oil and Gas from Rus. Only the outside commentators want quick resolution.