Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 15 Apr 2022 01:02

banrjeer wrote:
Cyrano wrote: Whatever the truth may be, even if it's a genuine missile hit, it's equivalent to a mosquito bite on a marauding elephant.

If they've fired it from somewhere near Odessa, hoping to divert some Russian troops from the Donbass cauldron, it won't work. They'll get Kalibr missile strikes instead.
Loss may not be so insignificant. It may affect ability to attack Odessa if that was an objective.

Russians gave up on Odessa. They're just trying to hang on to Donbas, Mariupol, the land bridge to Crimea, and the area north of Crimea up to the Dniepr river (to secure Crimea's fresh water supply). Frankly, they'll be lucky to even attain these modest goals.

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 15 Apr 2022 01:09

I mean a few weeks ago the 'pyotr' was supposed to be sunk by the ukr fanbois but there was pic of it steaming in unharmed. It's just funny the pro US crowd here and online latch onto any misinformation. It's just hilarious. Literally every big bang atrocity / loss of Russia has turned out to be fake. I mean a reasonable human would pause for a a day or two to start reposting spam from western fake media but i guess maybe a broken US fanboi is hoping to be right at least once in 3600 attempts

List of fanboi claims so far
1. Ghost of Kiev
2. snake island
3. Loss of hundreds of Tanks
4. Loss of generals [same general makes a public visit in the next few days]
5. Loss of pyotr battleship [seen steaming in unharmed a few days later]
6. mariupol hospital death claim - turned out to be a hoax
7. Toschka attack - again a hoax.

I mean the list of baseless claims is getting ridiculous. So let's see how the moskva claim ends up

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 15 Apr 2022 01:31

Y. Kanan wrote:
Russians gave up on Odessa. They're just trying to hang on to Donbas, Mariupol, the land bridge to Crimea, and the area north of Crimea up to the Dniepr river (to secure Crimea's fresh water supply). Frankly, they'll be lucky to even attain these modest goals.

This is a more realistic goal and should have been the plan all along. if russia takes donbass and secures water for crimea then they would have achived their goal. anything else will be a bonus they can use to negotiate(if zelensky ever negotiates)

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 15 Apr 2022 01:54

Reports coming now that moskva finally sank in bad weather while trying to reach the port.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 15 Apr 2022 01:54

John wrote:
Zynda wrote:Apparently Moskva has reached Sevastopol port on its own (probably once the fire was put out...RN assessed that propulsion system still works along with much of structures maintaining integrity for low-speed cruise back to port). Western sources prematurely declared that Moskva was sunk and the glee that comes with a David (Ukrs) sinking the flagship of Goliath Navy was apparent...

link
It’s probably being towed but I doubt it reached Sevastopol as you would have seen pics by now.

Update: Russia defense ministry says the Moskva sank while being towed back to port in stormy weather following an explosion and fire.
Link: Крейсер "Москва" затонул при буксировке во время шторма

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 15 Apr 2022 02:06

^^^ was about to post this. But Amber G beat me to it. As this war drags on we are seeing the true extent that Russia lags behind in technology.

This should be a wake up call to our planners to get off this dependence on Russian Military equipment.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 15 Apr 2022 02:07

It is possible that Nato has supplied anti ship missiles covertly and this is what hit the Moskva?

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 15 Apr 2022 02:09

Tanaji wrote:It is possible that Nato has supplied anti ship missiles covertly and this is what hit the Moskva?

@brar_w had posted about harpoon supplies but this looks like a local cm.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 15 Apr 2022 02:10

Atmavik wrote:^^^ was about to post this. But Amber G beat me to it. As this war drags on we are seeing the true extent that Russia lags behind in technology.

This should be a wake up call to our planners to get off this dependence on Russian Military equipment.

Having said this it will not be easy or quick .

Diversification won't be quick. "20 of 34 fighter squadrons, 65 of 67 tank regiments, 28 of 55 air defense regiments, and all 30 mechanized infantry regiments rely to a significant extent on Russian platforms or those with Russian parts"

John · Post by **John** » 15 Apr 2022 02:14

Atmavik wrote:
Tanaji wrote:It is possible that Nato has supplied anti ship missiles covertly and this is what hit the Moskva?
@brar_w had posted about harpoon supplies but this looks like a local cm.

Doubtful about harpoon being supplied as RN doesn’t operate a land based harpoon platform. There is Sea Skua and naval brimstone but these are short range missiles.

Anyway the missile used is Neptune which is based on Uran missile but has 280 km range they likely used UAVs (TB2) to queue it to get around radar horizon (also because they have limited coastal surveillance capability),

bala · Post by **bala** » 15 Apr 2022 02:28

Escalation: The US $800 million military aid package for Ukraine include the shipment of a wide range of weapons to help Kyiv fight against Russia’s military. The newly announced assistance has the following:
11 Mi-17 helicopters
18 155mm Howitzers and 40,000 artillery rounds
10 AN/TPQ-36 counter-artillery radars
Two AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel air surveillance radars
300 Switchblade tactical unmanned aerial systems, otherwise known as armed drones
500 Javelin antitank missiles and thousands of other anti-armor systems
200 M113 armored personnel carriers
100 armored Humvees
Unmanned coastal defense vessels
30,000 sets of body armor and helmets
Over 2,000 optics and laser rangefinders
C-4 explosives and demolition equipment for obstacle clearing
M18A1 Claymore antipersonnel munition

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 15 Apr 2022 04:20

I was looking at the specs of Moskva. Very advanced - one of the three ever produced. Russian Odessa dreams are finished for now, IMHO.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 15 Apr 2022 06:45

IndraD wrote:https://www.rt.com/russia/553830-kiev-strike-possible/ Russia warns Ukraine it might strike Kiev
…...

And so it has

https://twitter.com/conflicts/status/15 ... xs4a0I5I88

In fact there are air raids reported across Ukraine

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 15 Apr 2022 09:06

Y. Kanan wrote:
banrjeer wrote:
Loss may not be so insignificant. It may affect ability to attack Odessa if that was an objective.
Russians gave up on Odessa. They're just trying to hang on to Donbas, Mariupol, the land bridge to Crimea, and the area north of Crimea up to the Dniepr river (to secure Crimea's fresh water supply). Frankly, they'll be lucky to even attain these modest goals.

That’s not a “just” that’s a pretty big meal and will take long enough to digest.

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 15 Apr 2022 09:13

The US is energy secure gas wells come out and terminate with min it’s own borders. Its insulated by massive oceans and has no peers on their continent.

Russia may not have such sweet deal border wise… but it is energy rich and is even more massive . In some ways It’s like what the US used to be .

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 15 Apr 2022 10:44

The problem with Russia is the post Soviet collapse in education along with below replacement level fertility rates.

Do we have any demographic trends for Ukraine?

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 15 Apr 2022 10:48

Baikul wrote:
IndraD wrote:https://www.rt.com/russia/553830-kiev-strike-possible/ Russia warns Ukraine it might strike Kiev
…...
And so it has

https://twitter.com/conflicts/status/15 ... xs4a0I5I88

In fact there are air raids reported across Ukraine

If Russia is doing it sheer stupidity, they must restrict themselves to Ukranian Infrastructure and miltary targets- rest of it is waste of ammo.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 15 Apr 2022 11:25

bala wrote:Escalation: The US $800 million military aid package for Ukraine include the shipment of a wide range of weapons to help Kyiv fight against Russia’s military. The newly announced assistance has the following:
11 Mi-17 helicopters
18 155mm Howitzers and 40,000 artillery rounds
10 AN/TPQ-36 counter-artillery radars
Two AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel air surveillance radars
300 Switchblade tactical unmanned aerial systems, otherwise known as armed drones
500 Javelin antitank missiles and thousands of other anti-armor systems
200 M113 armored personnel carriers
100 armored Humvees
Unmanned coastal defense vessels
30,000 sets of body armor and helmets
Over 2,000 optics and laser rangefinders
C-4 explosives and demolition equipment for obstacle clearing
M18A1 Claymore antipersonnel munition

US never has budget to pay for child care or health but when it comes to war, all budgets suddenly become available and deficit hawks go to sleep.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 15 Apr 2022 11:34

U.S. cannot 'take lightly' threat Russia could use nuclear weapons - CIA chief

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 15 Apr 2022 12:25

Moskva indeed sank, it was beyond repair anyway. Russia claims no missile attack but fire on board in an ammo store, no evidence of Neptune missile being the cause. IMO, 50/50 probability for either story to be true.

If indeed Neptune was fired, why stop with Moskva? Why not target landing ships and other craft as well? Tactically and strategically how much does this really change the picture for Ukraine? Doesn't help in the Donbass theatre in any way. So whats the objective of sinking Moskva (if thats what happened) - just because they want to show they can?

Russian retaliation has been quick and has escalated this conflict another notch, Kyiv, mostly spared so far has seen big missile strikes - damage reports awaited. Ukraine has been set on a self immolation path by its NATO masters.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 15 Apr 2022 12:41

I have a question, we all know Rasputitsa season and that was a major factor in WW 2 and surely has been a factor here, why did Putin start this conflict at such a time when everything will be muddy and huge cloud cover will be there?

So far Russia has not tried to bomb Railway and road bridges supplying Ukrainians with Materials- would that not an obvious target. We all know from reading history of WW 2, that the the weather in this conflict zone will clear up at the end of April, May- Sep will have many bright sunny days ahead. Will Western weapons work better along with better Satellite imagery and Russian Surrender with Putin regime change imminent? or will Russia then be able to better use of AIrforce/PGMS along with greater mobility force Ukraine to give in to Russian demands? Wonder what will happen

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 15 Apr 2022 12:46

OT here many Indians have been ridiculed here

1) India- Pakistan relations by the West is not a Zero sum game- they all have trade and weapon relations with Pakistan who have done far worse with respect to Hindus and Indians in general.
2) Gandhi forced India to give financial Assistance to Pakistan in 1947 and never protested against the violence in Lahore/Karachi or Dhaka in the 1946-48?- whose side was he on? No Congress leader participated in Violence against Hindus in Pakistan- doesn't this show they along with the Brits were complicit in eradicating Hindus and Sikhs with was is Pakistan today? in Bangladesh- first it was Dalit Muslim unity and hence Muslims had an open season and lower caste Hindus were prevented from interfering with Jogendra Nath Mandal types in 1947, then he came to India in 1950 after accomplishing this, then the left- INC made sure that those Lower caste Hindus escaping Non Hindu BD were moved to Orissa and starved to death- wow this ecosystem works very well.
3) Nehru and Indian Governments keep donating 81% of Indus waters to Pakistan- shouldn't terrorism invalidate all pacts
4) Anyone opposing cricket with Pakistan was told Sports and politics do not mix- why is it ok now??

Shows how meek and weak willed generally as Nation we are? Can we at least use BCCI to force that Pakistan must comply with Terror related demands- hand over key ISI officers or kick them out of ICC?

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 15 Apr 2022 13:36

UK mercenary who was yapping for a while has been caught and paraded on Russia TV. right on track, UK reminds Russia of Geneva convention.
https://twitter.com/MapsUkraine/status/ ... 0050842626

Also a US merc is believed KIA. passport pics out from Mariupol. slowly foreign fighters are coming out

Here are videos of the 1350 Ukr Marines surrendering [Saker Website]
https://www.bitchute.com/video/GSxwz3BDD3cr/

https://www.bitchute.com/video/ocILorNO4pgj/

https://www.bitchute.com/video/VlaPo16Xwz84/

https://www.bitchute.com/video/pCx9sE4xLFHH/

https://www.bitchute.com/video/PFkTNt0jBLQ7/

The soldiers look wrecked.

There is also a video of Ukr soldiers ambushed . NSFW
https://www.bitchute.com/video/C1aTkj4lGtwJ/

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 15 Apr 2022 14:05

Please post the above in appropriate thread Aditya ji.

Russia (somewhat like India at times) is guilty of not prosecuting this Special Military Operation with the required degree of ruthlessness and cunning. Let me list what I see as Russia's self imposed constraints/attitudinal blunders:

1. Not taking out power supply and telecommunications at the start of the conflict - has enabled Ukr to operate its forces and militias with a lot of ease
2. Not taking out key highways, bridges, rail lines - perhaps to let civilians evacuate to safety - has enabled Ukr to receive NATO supplies and move them and other stuff to support its troops
3. Not taking out military C&C locations, military leadership - has let NATO directed operations to be conducted freely. Yavoriv attack was very effective, Ru should have struck every known mil base with missiles.
4. Not allowing foreign officials and heads of state to enter Ukr and go for media strolls around Kyiv - has enabled all kinds of pro Ukr propaganda
5. Not restricting Gas supplies to Europe in retaliation to sanctions and freezing of reserves - Increases a sentiment of impunity among NATO countries, no cost for arming and supporting Ukr to this day
6. Not warning NATO countries that providing weapons, intelligence, allowing "volunteers" etc will be considered as co-belligerence and as declaration of war by those countries as well - keep Ukr forces well fed and supplied, keeps up their morale, while taking more lives of RA troops and equipment losses
7. Not mounting a massive media campaign to counter western propaganda - allows money to flow in buckets and attracts more "volunteers" and mercenaries to join Ukr
8. Not organising a daily briefing by every Russian embassy in every country to counter with its own narrative - their diplomatic corps have been very passive. With the amount of neonazi evidence piling up, it shouldn't be difficult to turn world opinion against elensly regime.
9. Not setting clear conditions for Ukr and NATO to accept and promise immediate halt to the offensive if these conditions are accepted - now both Ukr and Ru seem to be fighting for shifting/unclear goals with no exit ramp. Allows the west to project that Russia simply wants to kills all Ukrainians and what not. Builds no pressure on Ukr to de-escalate and surrender.
10. Stop Uranium and other commodity supplies to the US and the West country allowing its citizen to join the adversary. Stop paying Ukraine for the gas transiting through its territory to Europe - they are still paying Ukr transit money even today.
11. Playing the nuclear threat card too early - makes it an empty posture and helps the east vilify Russia and gives them causus belli.
12. What happened to the vaunted Russian hackers? Nothing seems to indicate they have been used to compromise/cripple Urk's networks and systems.

While Russia has been very active on the battlefield, they have been mostly passive outside it. Its adversary is doing both and is able to sustain because of it.

Some of these postures and choices Russia is making remind me of India's "thou shalt not cross LoC/LAC", "we only want status quo ante" instead of taking enemy territory and negotiating for exchange, we will continue to trade essential supplies with the enemy while they are waging war against us (its Pak which cut trade ties, not India, we were still offering MFN status.

There is a lesson here: No matter what you do or dont, the other side paints you as a villain, never confers any sainthood on you. Be ruthless not only in battle, but in every domain that enables the adversary to be able to and be effective in waging battles against you. Going half way is cutting off one's own feet. A quick and decisive conflict will be ultimately more humane than a prolonged one where out of frustration and desperation both sides end up doing more and more ghastly acts and multiply the destruction and suffering.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 15 Apr 2022 15:53

Russians probably thought that they could force Ukraine to surrender and get a peace deal. I'm sure by now all that fantasy should have vanished.
Unless Russia treats this as a war and not special operation, they are going to fumble through this mess.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 15 Apr 2022 16:10

vinod wrote:Russians probably thought that they could force Ukraine to surrender and get a peace deal. I'm sure by now all that fantasy should have vanished.
Unless Russia treats this as a war and not special operation, they are going to fumble through this mess.

Basically Russia has screwed themselves and helped UK and USA.

ritesh · Post by **ritesh** » 15 Apr 2022 17:39

Atmavik wrote:This should be a wake up call to our planners to get off this dependence on Russian Military equipment.

Having said this it will not be easy or quick .

Diversification won't be quick. "20 of 34 fighter squadrons, 65 of 67 tank regiments, 28 of 55 air defense regiments, and all 30 mechanized infantry regiments rely to a significant extent on Russian platforms or those with Russian parts"

Diversification or Aatmanirbharta required?

We can't just shift from reliance on Russia to France or US.
Our Ordinance factories DPSUs and Private sector needs to taken on this challenge.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 15 Apr 2022 20:21

bala wrote:Escalation: The US $800 million military aid package for Ukraine include the shipment of a wide range of weapons to help Kyiv fight against Russia’s military...

Yeah, at this rate Ukraine, sadly, is increasingly looking like the new Syria or may be Afghanistan; and when the dust settles, whatever is the remaining landmass will be Russia’s Pakistan.

All that military hardware was probably rusting in some storage depot or somewhere in the desert.

Blinken told EU leaders he believes Russia's war on Ukraine could last until the end of 2022, CNN reports

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 15 Apr 2022 21:01

The way things are developing is turning out to be the standard Cold war situation. Russia is holding the Ukrainian by his testes, and America by his neck. It is the poor Ukrainian who is utterly devastated. Feels like a gang-rape of a country.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 15 Apr 2022 21:28

Cyrano wrote:

Russia (somewhat like India at times) is guilty of not prosecuting this Special Military Operation with the required degree of ruthlessness and cunning. Let me list what I see as Russia's self imposed constraints/attitudinal blunders:

Apart from all these points you mentioned, Russia even to this day is not attacking the weapons and materials ingress points in Western Ukraine. All the shiny trucks from NATO/Poland and other countries are using the main border cross posts, highways, and rail lines. This is a very low hanging fruit that can be dealt with a few dozen CM's or sorties from their bomber fleet flying high above the MANPAD threats. Not really sure why Russia is reluctant to act on this.

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 15 Apr 2022 21:36

^^I guess Russians have limited ability to track & hit moving targets...probably lack sophisticated GMTI capabilities in huge numbers. Their latest recon platforms may have those abilities but they will be very few in number and it will be a challenge to maintain 24x7 surveillance coverage over a huge country like Ukraine. One thing Russia can do is hit key railway bridges and road bridges in Western Ukraine, but this will effectively stop the ability of civilians evacuation efforts.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 15 Apr 2022 21:56

Aditya_V wrote:
vinod wrote:Russians probably thought that they could force Ukraine to surrender and get a peace deal. I'm sure by now all that fantasy should have vanished.
Unless Russia treats this as a war and not special operation, they are going to fumble through this mess.
Basically Russia has screwed themselves and helped UK and USA.

Nop. Those who are visiting Ukr will feel shame when Ukr will sign surrender. it case of giving a rope big enough.....

kit · Post by **kit** » 16 Apr 2022 02:24

Jay wrote:
Cyrano wrote:

Russia (somewhat like India at times) is guilty of not prosecuting this Special Military Operation with the required degree of ruthlessness and cunning. Let me list what I see as Russia's self imposed constraints/attitudinal blunders:
Apart from all these points you mentioned, Russia even to this day is not attacking the weapons and materials ingress points in Western Ukraine. All the shiny trucks from NATO/Poland and other countries are using the main border cross posts, highways, and rail lines. This is a very low hanging fruit that can be dealt with a few dozen CM's or sorties from their bomber fleet flying high above the MANPAD threats. Not really sure why Russia is reluctant to act on this.

American SAM systems patriot etc deployed in Poland and baltics..

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 16 Apr 2022 06:54

kit wrote:
American SAM systems patriot etc deployed in Poland and baltics..

Units not in UKR are only tracking and not launching SAMs. I’m not sure how effective UKRs Sam coverage is to prevent a Cruise Missiles from hitting targets in western UKR.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 16 Apr 2022 07:35

KL Dubey wrote:
Tanaji wrote:There are all nationalities there...
And a desi as well...it is hard to wrap my mind around the thought process of these guys...

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 171956.cms

https://qz.com/india/2139750/sainikhesh ... teer-army/

Unkil haa been receuiring desis within its borders to go to Ukr, not necessarilt foe fighti g, but to gathee intel posing aa int'al students. Others are being recruited as mercenaries

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 17 Apr 2022 00:10

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 17 Apr 2022 02:40

Baniansky is claiming that he will end talks of Mariupol defenders are killed:

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has said eliminating Ukrainian fighters in the southern port city of Mariupol will put an end to talks with Russia.

Referring to a town outside Kyiv that has been devastated by heavy shelling, Mr Zelensky told the Ukrainska Pravda news website: "Mariupol could be like 10 Borodyankas.

"I want to say that the elimination of our military, our guys, will put an end to all negotiations."

Not sure what he expects Russia to do in a war?

He is also doubling down that he won’t agree to ceding any territory. A true Kejriwal clone this: Let the country burn if it helps his image

kit · Post by **kit** » 17 Apr 2022 03:03

Does anyone think all that help would really "help" Ukraine ?

The United States has the midas touch in reverse. Everything it lays its hands on goes south"

John Mearsheimer

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 17 Apr 2022 03:58

Ukraine claims to have killed yet another Russian general, and if confirmed then he will be the 8th Russian general to die in the last 7 weeks ! At what point does Russia realize that US has real time electronic intelligence on the whereabouts of Russian top brass in Ukraine ? Despite these losses it is baffling that Russia does not seem to be in any hurry to change its tactics, either they are showing restraint to a point of stupidity or they severally lack manpower, intelligence and weaponry to begin massive retaliation.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 17 Apr 2022 04:30

Kati wrote:
Unkil haa been receuiring desis within its borders to go to Ukr, not necessarilt foe fighti g, but to gathee intel posing aa int'al students. Others are being recruited as mercenaries

Do you have a source for this?