Russian / Ukranian Combat Tactics

[ks_sachin]

From a purely military standpoint, the Russians deserve whatever is coming their way. They may win the battles but they have long since lost the war.

[NRao]

I would not go that far - to say that the Russians have lost the war. If there is one point anyone can take from the 2.5 hr vid posted by Cyrano (above) is that Russia has stated all along that any move within Ukraine (and Georgia) is an existential threat to Russia.

My feel is that both side (IMO this is a US proxy war against Russia) sides initially misjudged. And, now both are recalibrating.

I would not believe anything in any media.

That said, there are sufficient data points one can see that point to a turn towards the Russians

* for one sales of Russian O&G are booming. Within the Eu and China. China reports suggest has scooped up some 60% more gas and has speeded up building the 3rd pipeline to China
* the O&G contracts with EU are coming to an end at some time. As early as 2010 Russia wanted to break O&G ties with EU - it was Merkel that convinced Putin to build the new pipeline to Germany. The current narrative is that Russia have gone back to Plan A: cut all ties one O&G with EU. Some reports suggest that IF China were to take all Russia can export to China, ot much will be left for EU anyways
* WRT military happening the video posted by Cyrano explains much of what has/is happening. I have personally been listening to there of them for over a month and they all have been very consistent (Andrei Martyanov is new to me, but he provides more depth to the others - he is an ex-Russian guy tasked (to destroy the USN" - as he he himself states it). Even when there was the famous 40 kms long tank column they were consistent in saying it is only a diversion, never meant to take Kiev
* because Russians (not Putin) sees UKR as an existential threat, there are no time table. The goal being demilitarize and de-nazify UKR + the two areas that they wanted. Now, they believe that the land grab has been enlarged and is permanent


* past week they started talking of Poland grabing parts of Western UKR, some of which was part of Poland at some point in time. Leaving a rump UKR. ????

* An ex Brazilian prez has called for a South American "currency". EU nations are increasingly moving to pay in Rubles - not to mention EU has a trade deficit vs. Russia. Japan has refused to disengage from Shaklin O&G project (national interest).China/India are making own arrangements. In short, the one thing the US did not want - the loss of petro-dollars - could be happening
* Only 30 nations of some 192 have supported the sanctions. SA has openly stated that this is a problem started by NATO. Brazil, India, China hasve not imposed any sanctions
* The Ruble is doing far better than when the war started

* April 22: "Boris Johnson admits 'realistic possibility' that Russia could win the war in Ukraine, and that it may last until the end of 2023" - Boris Johnson
* West is sending heavy weapons, which were never part of the plan


Russia is in no hurry to do anything is the immersion I get. Clumsy, perhaps, but certainly with a goal

[John]

Even when there was the famous 40 kms long tank column they were consistent in saying it is only a diversion, never meant to take Kiev

At this point I have seen almost not many still claiming the northern attack was feint or diversion, you don’t do diversion with same set of units and sacrifice some of your elite units trying to take objectives (see German invasion of France for example of a diversionary attack from Belgium while the main German force went thru Ardennes ).

As for 40 km convoy it was myth that convoy was that long it did split it up and got to their location but by that time many units where badly hit by drones and artillery or run out of supplies. Russia made the decision to pull them back as they where running out of supplies and where starting to get surrounded.

Unf the same units where used for Eastern offensive but because some where so badly hit it took long to reconstitute them or find new replacements. This delayed offensive date and offensive ended up being staggered also gave Ukranians time to essentially come back to the east after cleaning up the North. Also Kharkiv during spring is muddy which further slowed the initial thrust.

As I started a month ago instead of brutal battle in the east (I think they could have encircled the Ukranians in a month after heavy fighting if they done it from the start). Russia went for a quick victory by capturing or encircling Kyiv but lot of pieces they lined up such as infiltration, getting Ukranian general/politicians to switch sides and quick capture of Hostomel fell thru. Ironically that ended up costing them more in terms of lives, resources and time.

[NRao]

Even when there was the famous 40 kms long tank column they were consistent in saying it is only a diversion, never meant to take Kiev

At this point I have seen almost no many still claiming the northern attack was feint or diversion, you don’t do diversion with same set of units (see German invasion of France). 40 km convoy (it was myth that convoy was that long ) did split it up and got to their location but by that time many units where badly hit by drones and artillery or run out of supplies. Russia made the decision to pull them back as they where running out of supplies and where starting to get surrounded.

Unf the same units where used for Eastern offensive but because some where so badly hit it took long to reconstitute them or find new replacements. This delayed offensive date and offensive ended up being staggered also gave Ukranians time to essentially come back to the east after cleaning up the North.

The (main or only?) reason I have heard them give is that the UA had a 3:1 advantage, so RU needed diversions (that they did not execute properly is matter of opinion - per them) (BTW, you can engage them, they do respond to pretty much every question posed to them - they have some streams (rumble) that I am not familiar with)

Also, they have vehemently contested a few other things: assets lost, that RU did not rotate troops, intelligence, RU AD(!!!!)etc. The difference between the reports in the West (BTW, Alex is in Cyprus, Alexander in the UK, Andrei in the US, and Lira is in UKR)

They have been consistent - at least since I noticed them a month of so ago. And, I have found their news items have been ahead of the reports - at least in the West. They said that RU is keeping the land RU captured about a week or so ago - and it appeared in WashPost today. And, they were very specific: Rubles in use, Russian admins, security being reorged, food/meds trucked in, etc

[Deans]

As I started a month ago instead of brutal battle in the east (I think they could have encircled the Ukranians in a month after heavy fighting if they done it from the start). Russia went for a quick victory by capturing or encircling Kyiv but lot of pieces they lined up such as infiltration, getting Ukranian general/politicians to switch sides and quick capture of Hostomel fell thru. Ironically that ended up costing them more in terms of lives, resources and time.

With the benefit of hindsight, the initial Russian strategy was badly flawed and has affected execution of Plan B.
However, let's not assume its because Putin is an idiot. This is his 5th war as his country's leader. Until this one, Russia had won all and improved
in each conflict. In 2014, Crimea fell without a shot being fired - The Ukrainian army and air force in the Crimea were enough to repel the invasion.
He had some reasons to believe that Crimea might be repeated. It is a weakness of their system that no contrary view was offered by the FSB, foreign & finance ministry, or armed forces.

Russia has a better understanding than us, of the extent of NATO armaments flowing into Ukraine (lot of detail on Russian channels) and their own capacity to mobilise reserves and produce armaments. They do not seem to be in any hurry to end the war, either by forcing a result on the battlefield, or through talks. As I posted, they have not even declared war. Are they settling down for a long war ? (like in Afghanistan, where the US assumed it would take 10 weeks and the Taliban 10 years).

[dnivas]

I still do not understand the focus of the Pro US members here on timeline.

one question, India has spent many years talking about POK region and trying to take it back. let's swap India for Russia and terroristan for Ukr, So now since India has lost more troops than Russia has, and India has spent more time talking about getting back POK, should we let go of POK region since according to you folks, it just took too long. Are any of you willing to let go of the territories of Pok [forget about ppl there, I am talking abt territory]. This curious western fantasy of timelines is mind boggling to me and our desis parroting that russia already lost the war since they have not got Berlin, London and DC within 48 hours.

It is such nonsense, that you guys keep harping about timelines and that Russia is gonna give up.

Like NRN mentioned, the Kiev diversion was to lock in the flow of western Ukr jihadis to Donbass region. Who the hell expects to take Kiev with 40K troops that too with a huge logistical tail. Now if Kiev had fallen, well and good, but because that diversionary 40K troops , a lot of NATO weapons and fully equipped units [3x times] could not move out established defensive positions to buttress and reinforce eastern Ukr. On account of that tactic, Now the units in the cauldron are getting the S*t kicked out them.

[dnivas]

Categorized under Ukr Tactics
‘Ghost of Kyiv’ Fighter Ace Is Actually a Myth, Ukraine Military Admits

https://www.theepochtimes.com/ghost-of- ... 39075.html

The mysterious Ukrainian war hero hailed as the “Ghost of Kyiv” not only didn’t die in combat, but also wasn’t real, the Ukrainian military has said.

The unsubstantiated tale about an anonymous Ukrainian fighter jet pilot who allegedly took down six Russian warplanes in one day has been circulating on social media since the early days of Russia’s full-scale military offensive against Ukraine. The story gained major media attention and was perpetuated by official Ukrainian social media channels, including Twitter accounts of the Ukrainian government and former president Petro Poroshenko.

“People call him the Ghost of Kyiv, and rightly so,” Ukrainian government wrote on Twitter on Feb. 27. “This UAF ace dominates the skies over our capital and country, and has already become a nightmare for invading Russian aircrafts.”

Over the past two months, many people questioned whether the “Ghost” was real. But it wasn’t until the supposed death of the Ghost made news headlines that the Ukrainian military came out and admitted there never was such a person.

[Raja]

Stop comparing Kashmir with Ukraine situation or any other. Kashmir is an integral part of India and we have consistently maintained that policy. Your analogy does not stand. Cease and desist from this line of thinking.

[dnivas]

Ukr T64 getting taken out after firing the first couple if rounds.

Starts running away before getting a round in the back

[dnivas]

Stop comparing Kashmir with Ukraine situation or any other. Kashmir is an integral part of India and we have consistently maintained that policy. Your analogy does not stand. Cease and desist from this line of thinking.

If Kashmir if a integral part of India why dont you take a local bus and go to Muzzafarbad tomorrow. No need to take my point literal.I am just trying to explain the Pro Ukr side that Russia does not care about any western mandated timelines. The russians consider Eastern Ukr's as ethnic Russians an also their near abode and when 14,000 are killed , they will use the R2P clause that NATO availed of in the balkans not too long ago.

When we decide to kick the TSP army out of Pok and all the parts that were taken from us, I hope we do not get the same coconuts and 'wellwishers ' telling us are losing the war if we have not take out bikaribad and slumbad in 2 weeks.

[John]

The (main or only?) reason I have heard them give is that the UA had a 3:1 advantage, so RU needed diversions (that they did not execute properly is matter of opinion - per them) (BTW, you can engage them, they do respond to pretty much every question posed to them - they have some streams (rumble) that I am not familiar with)

Also, they have vehemently contested a few other things: assets lost, that RU did not rotate troops, intelligence, RU AD(!!!!)etc. The difference between the reports in the West (BTW, Alex is in Cyprus, Alexander in the UK, Andrei in the US, and Lira is in UKR)

They have been consistent - at least since I noticed them a month of so ago. And, I have found their news items have been ahead of the reports - at least in the West. They said that RU is keeping the land RU captured about a week or so ago - and it appeared in WashPost today. And, they were very specific: Rubles in use, Russian admins, security being reorged, food/meds trucked in, etc

Rarely do you ever have 3to1 advantage over an opponent if you look at invasion of Baghdad (which Russian media originally compared it to) there were about 160k forces that crossed over while Iraqis fielded about 400k units.

By using air power and focused attack the idea was to overwhelm the opposing forces and paralyze the enemy defenses aka Shock and awe. But in case of this conflict the Russian force were so spread out and issues with logistics and poor use of Air power to achieve air superiority. This hampered a path to success to atleast in surrounding Kyiv which was clearly there ( remember all western predictions?).

[Cyrano]

Whats happening in the eastern sector now is good old trench warfare. AFU have dug a huge network of deep trenches with fortified concrete bunkers with significant shelter and weapons/ammunition storage capacity. They had a decade to do this, but they may have accelerated the fortification in the past couple of years.

RA is shelling these positions to rubble, using fire locating radars, small drones to locate any fire or movement by AFU and taking them out using arty or rocket/missile attacks. AFU will at some point of time run out of supplies, food and water. Some units are then making suicidal attacks and dying in "glory", others less stupid are surrendering.

Why some forumites are expecting a quick and dramatic end to this conflict? Even after AFU in eastern sector falls, there is much left to do for Russia. They will have to take Odessa, Zaphorizhye (with its huge nuclear plant), connect with Transnitria, and completely demilitarise Ukraine which is accomplished when AFU is either totally destroyed and/or taken POW. Most of its mil factories are already hit, and this capacity destruction will continue. Since Ukranians made statements about wanting to go nuclear, it will have to include de-nuclearisation as well, and there are several N plants under the Kyiv regime in the center, and all the way in the west.

De-nazification is another tricky, long drawn affair. There could be insurgency of some of the extremist battalions survive this war. There will be some set backs now and then, but such pin pricks cannot fundamentally alter the inexorable SMO's advance. The US/NATO can keep supplying an incoherent mix of obsolete weapons but if they think that they can push back Russia to pre-Feb24 positions they're wilfully refusing to see the reality. There simply aren't enough well trained Ukrainian troops left to contemplate even a 1:1 counter attack, one can forget about any kind of numerical superiority.

After the recent hypersonic MIRV ICBM Satan2 test any talk of nuclear escalation is just talk. I dont see either side doing any N false flag attacks either.

[mody]

What is amazing is that Ukr has been using the TB2 in the Black sea area fora while and some reports suggest that they were used as baits in the sinking of the Moskva cruiser as well. Yet the ruskies don't seem to have learnt their lessons.

[dnivas]

.....

Why some forumites are expecting a quick and dramatic end to this conflict? Even after AFU in eastern sector falls, there is much left to do for Russia. They will have to take Odessa, Zaphorizhye (with its huge nuclear plant), connect with Transnitria, and completely demilitarise Ukraine which is accomplished when AFU is either totally destroyed and/or taken POW. Most of its mil factories are already hit, and this capacity destruction will continue. Since Ukranians made statements about wanting to go nuclear, it will have to include de-nuclearisation as well, and there are several N plants under the Kyiv regime in the center, and all the way in the west.

.........

Exactly and if it is November by the time all of the sea coast is taken, imagine the EU trying to make deals with Russia for minerals and gas and oil. Winter time commodity price will be at a even more higher price.

When congress elections comes up and prices for everything is high, the US will start wavering on its unwending supply of weapons. Let's see how long the talking heads from CNN and MSNBC will be in Lyiv.


the more time this conflict takes, the more the board realigns towards Russia. I just wish India had the commodities [mineral , oil] to ride over any coercive sanctions if it happens in our lifetime.

Good point about trench warfare. Many of videos I am seeing is literally WW2 style underground bunkers being taken apart one at a time.

[Jay]

It is such nonsense, that you guys keep harping about timelines and that Russia is gonna give up.

I strongly think that US favors the war to draw as long as possible. US will not gain much if Russia gives up any further aggression and reach a truce with UKR, as for US UKR is nothing but cannon fodder which they will use to lure as much of Russia as possible in hopes of demolishing them and at the present rate, Russia seems to be obliging that to its own peril.

[NRao]

Rarely do you ever have 3to1 advantage over an opponent if you look at invasion of Baghdad (which Russian media originally compared it to) there were about 160k forces that crossed over while Iraqis fielded about 400k units.

.............

I think you should listen to the content of Alex, Alexander, and Andrei. Some of their discussions go for 4 hours, so there is plenty of material to check out. Besides Andrei is an ex Russian General Staff guy (my impression) - I say that because he mentions planning very often. They have tons of content out there. BTW, there is another great resource who has taken the UKR position (IIRC Puran on YT)



My interest has been at a much higher level: what does this UKR "war" mean to India. And, I made two args when it started:

A) This war proves/validates Jaishankar's position on "Multipolar" "New World Order". Until this war came along Jaishankar only made for a great keynote speaker at a prestigious think tank or the like. Every since UKR graced (yes, I think it is a divine gift) one can see the attention it has attracted from every quarter of the world, AND disgust from the Blinken-Nuland cabal

B ) The longer this war goes the better for India, for the simple reason multipolarity grows longer and stronger roots. That this war is living proof that unipolarity is dead and bipolarity is outright dangerous. The world needs multipolarity

In fact I call this war the Jaishankar-Blinken/Nuland tussle. And, the longer it goes on (especially if Russia gains an upper hand) the better for the Jaishankar camp (IMO)


One more comment: There is a line of thought that states that Macron of France is out to get Germany. Actually they go to say that he is pushing for O&G sanctions on RU to starve German industry. Thus making France the leader (now that UK has left the nest) of EU.

This has many implications: for one on the "Anglo" camp and another on NATO itself. I am most interested in cracks in both and I think I see small cracks within NATO - mostly on the topic of Ruble as a currency for Russian O&G (there goes the petro-$)

I think this war will keep simmering, Russia will grind it out.

I think while we tend to focus too much on losses to UAVs, etc, Russians are focusing on gaining as much territory as possible and thus ensuring a permanent black mark on the US for all to see. A slow torture of NATO, if you will.

My observation is that the Russians have NATO where they want NATO to be.

IMO of course

[bala]

Andrei Martyanov is very articulate and blunt about the tussle. His analysis is spot on. Combat capabilities/tactics, command and control, defense and actual experience in warfare are huge factors for winning. If one does not get bowled over by the stupid MSM and silly commentators you begin to understand very clearly what the odds are and how military victories are shaped. One thing I learned is that the Russian Military and US Pentagon have healthy respect for each other (thank the lord) and they both realize the futility of MAD. Russia is also capable of taking military losses both men and material as opposed to the nightmare scenario for the West on human casualties, they simply cannot take such losses.

Ukr IMO is going to be completely sacrificed and even worse the repercussions on Europe for the long term is going to be quite profound. Germany is on the receiving end since they have no internal energy supply.

[Deans]

The (main or only?) reason I have heard them give is that the UA had a 3:1 advantage, so RU needed diversions (that they did not execute properly is matter of opinion - per them) (BTW, you can engage them, they do respond to pretty much every question posed to them - they have some streams (rumble) that I am not familiar with)

When the war started, it was assumed that Russia had the 3:1 advantage. I looked at the actual ORBAT of both sides closely, as more info became available and found that the advantage - in regular army formations, that Russia had was never more than 2 : 1.
If one includes mobilised and trained reserves, there is numerical parity between Russia and Ukraine.
Reserves in a defensive role, armed with NATO supplied weapons and advisors and real time intel, are as good as regular infantry.

The result is fairly predictable. If you attack a strong defensive position without a firepower or numerical advantage, you can't advance much and will risk heavy casualties. That explains the current lack of progress on the battlefield, though one wonders why Russia did not figure that out earlier.

Where I think the Kiev operation failed, was the shambolic (IMO) Russian withdrawal. It would have made sense for the Russians to have dug in, within artillery range, on both sides of Kiev and force the Ukrainians to have a substantial force defending it.

[Cyrano]

Massive cruise missile strikes all over Ukraine, especially in Lviv.

[ManuJ]

Prolonging the war is not in Russia's best interests. West has jumped into the fight wholeheartedly now after initial dithering, and that is an ominous sign. Effectively, Russia will be taking on the combined might of USA and European Union, both militarily and economically, and that can only end one way.
It will lead to a massive downsizing of Russian state power and influence for at least a generation.
In addition, the longer the war continues, the more likely Finland and Sweden are to join NATO, which will hand Russia a strategic defeat.

If Russia doesn't score quick wins in Donbas which can allow it claim victory and declare cease-fire, the going will get increasingly tough. Expect increasingly belligerent and threatening statements from Putin et al, and a game of nuclear brinksmanship. Russia may also order a general mobilization.

[dnivas]

Prolonging the war is not in Russia's best interests. West has jumped into the fight wholeheartedly now after initial dithering, and that is an ominous sign. Effectively, Russia will be taking on the combined might of USA and European Union, both militarily and economically, and that can only end one way.
It will lead to a massive downsizing of Russian state power and influence for at least a generation.
In addition, the longer the war continues, the more likely Finland and Sweden are to join NATO, which will hand Russia a strategic defeat.

If Russia doesn't score quick wins in Donbas which can allow it claim victory and declare cease-fire, the going will get increasingly tough. Expect increasingly belligerent and threatening statements from Putin et al, and a game of nuclear brinksmanship. Russia may also order a general mobilization.

Not sure. Russia has all the industries and the commodities to keep going for ever. Even plane engines are almost close to be indigenised. They can take years but the west cannot go past a couple winters. Already Europe is paying almost 50% more for utilities and petrol in some places. When winter comes it is going to get much much worse.

The EU is bankrolling the current war. I read a few days that the Russian oil industry has made more profit 64 Billion or so in the past few months than all of last year.

Their national defense budget is 64 Billion.

to summarize, they have the industries, more importantly they have the commodities to keep making weapons, for years to come.In the meantime , after all the western bridges and infrastructure likes in Ukr are taken out, Ukr will have no means of a durable weapon flow, no durable electricity or internet, all seaports taken out. This is when the pitchforks come out.

Just as a statistic, yesterday was the first day Lviv actually had a power and internet cut since the war began 2 months ago. Rusia can keep doing this everyday and take out all the oil, the calls for capitulation will get stronger. That my 2 rupees.

Dang wish we had the raw materials that Russia has.. looking at the known resources is just eye popping. Europe has nothing close to what Russia has.

[Vayutuvan]

Ukr IMO is going to be completely sacrificed and even worse the repercussions on Europe for the long term is going to be quite profound. Germany is on the receiving end since they have no internal energy supply.

bala ji,

If Germany reverses their decision to shut down nuclear power (they have to do it real soon now), it can substantially mitigate the problem in about 5--10 years from now.

[mody]

A video on the 1st month of Russian 'Special Military Operation'. Very interesting. Lots of information about the units on the various fronts and the exact progress that was achieved.

https://youtu.be/yBZPE9o2gHU

[Pratyush]

snip.....

Dang wish we had the raw materials that Russia has.. looking at the known resources is just eye popping. Europe has nothing close to what Russia has.

The objective of western world seems to be moving towards breaking Russia into several smaller states.

Really interesting to see the scale of both ambition and hubris.

But this war has accomplished one real objective. At the expense of Ukrainian civillian lives.

It has created enough blue eyed blonde refugees to alter the balance of migration into Europe from both Muslims and Africans population. At a pace that is quite remarkable.

Some people were worried about Europe turning into Eurabia. That will no longer happen.

Regardless of who wins in Ukraine.

[ks_sachin]

The objective of western world seems to be moving towards breaking Russia into several smaller states.

Really interesting to see the scale of both ambition and hubris.

But this war has accomplished one real objective. At the expense of Ukrainian civillian lives.

It has created enough blue eyed blonde refugees to alter the balance of migration into Europe from both Muslims and Africans population. At a pace that is quite remarkable.

Some people were worried about Europe turning into Eurabia. That will no longer happen.

Regardless of who wins in Ukraine.

May be we should come up with Slavic names for Non Slavic EU states?

Here is another one..

A person holding dual nationality of UK and Iran =UK RANIAN!

[rsingh]

Aim of breaking Russia in smaller states? For the time being all we see is Ukraine broken in many smaller states . May be it was some strategic move by NATO.....SALAMI TACTIC .....CUT and OFFER.

[brar_w]

Can we stick to the topic on this thread? I'm sure there's a thread on the political aspect of this conflict and proxy war where there's space to give one's takes on who is interested in splitting what territory and what the refugee mix is going to be in Europe or elsewhere and what we want to call these refugees etc.

[John]

Anyway back on topic lot of social media back on forth on amount of trucks that where taken out by Ukr artillery in Kharkiv this analysis was a good summary. Also highlights the cost for Russian army trying to hold onto its existing territory when they are under artillery range

https://twitter.com/maciejtaul/status/1 ... fYy602afnA

[Deans]

A word about the Russian air force.
The bulk of their close air support missions are being done by SU-24 & SU-25 Aircraft.

These are Soviet era aircraft, probably similar in age and condition to our Jaguars, which would perform a similar role.
There are a total of 10 squadrons of SU 24 & 25 combined, in the ORBAT of 3 of the 5 Military districts deployed for the war.
That's 160 aircraft. Known losses are 9, so assume another 9 damaged and unavailable.
142 aircraft with an availability of 66% are estimated to be doing 100 sorties a day (total for RuAF is 300).
So operational aircraft are flying on combat missions everyday for over 2 months. I don't think there's been any conflict where this has happened (in WW-2 weather reduced the days on which flying was possible). With 66% availability, the average SU-24/25 has already flown 50 sorties.

[Deans]

Anyway back on topic lot of social media back on forth on amount of trucks that where taken out by Ukr artillery in Kharkiv this analysis was a good summary. Also highlights the cost for Russian army trying to hold onto its existing territory when they are under artillery range

https://twitter.com/maciejtaul/status/1 ... fYy602afnA

That's why I think the Russian retreat from the approaches to Kiev was inexplicable. They would have Kiev in artillery range. the Ukrainian forces would not have been able to dislodge a dug in Russian force of equal or superior strength. They also retreated from the area between Cherniv and Sumy, where they had advanced creating a 50 km buffer between the front and the Russian border. Currently its the Ukrainians who seem to be striking with impunity across the border.

[ramana]

Folks resist the temptation to make references to Kashmir etc. It is about Russia-Ukraine.
Make your points without bringing in India.
Every discussion in any thread brings up India.
And don't reply to me.
I would rather you observe the rule.
Thanks, ramana

[niran]

Anyway back on topic lot of social media back on forth on amount of trucks that where taken out by Ukr artillery in Kharkiv this analysis was a good summary. Also highlights the cost for Russian army trying to hold onto its existing territory when they are under artillery range

https://twitter.com/maciejtaul/status/1 ... fYy602afnA

That's why I think the Russian retreat from the approaches to Kiev was inexplicable. They would have Kiev in artillery range. the Ukrainian forces would not have been able to dislodge a dug in Russian force of equal or superior strength. They also retreated from the area between Cherniv and Sumy, where they had advanced creating a 50 km buffer between the front and the Russian border. Currently its the Ukrainians who seem to be striking with impunity across the border.

just one word "manpower" unlike Indian Army non of the Oiropeans have manpower to place boots on ground Ookarain is vaste flat land too vast even for IA to capture all cities towns together.
and no till date Putin anna has not released his war plans so Roos cuda suda wuda is pure hogwash. i show .Roosiyan building field supply depot my caculation is 1 depot supply 3km radius, and they are systematically house by house mohalla by mohalla street by street capturing Ookarain my guesstimate is it is 1.8 year campaign.

[niran]

Roosiyans similar to Desh are self sufficient on food opposite of Desh they are energy sellers, their people can barter economy as of old, Ooiropeans have zilch, no food no energy no product without which world can't do without
longer war continues worse Oirope becomes.

[Vayutuvan]

Euros have only one thing going for them - tourism. A long war destroys the tourism industry like nothing else. That is a double whammy for Europe.

[bala]

With war going for so long, I keep wondering what is supplying the Ukr with fuel, food, arms/munition especially in the forward areas. Fuel is depleting rapidly almost going down to zilch, keeping an army fed is huge logistics and arms supply is subject to the Russian air attacks via rockets/missiles. And of course command and control is hugely missing. It is up to the Ukr units to fend for themselves with whatever little they have, if any. Appreciate any gyan on these aspects.

[ks_sachin]

That's why I think the Russian retreat from the approaches to Kiev was inexplicable. They would have Kiev in artillery range. the Ukrainian forces would not have been able to dislodge a dug in Russian force of equal or superior strength. They also retreated from the area between Cherniv and Sumy, where they had advanced creating a 50 km buffer between the front and the Russian border. Currently its the Ukrainians who seem to be striking with impunity across the border.

just one word "manpower" unlike Indian Army non of the Oiropeans have manpower to place boots on ground Ookarain is vaste flat land too vast even for IA to capture all cities towns together.
and no till date Putin anna has not released his war plans so Roos cuda suda wuda is pure hogwash. i show .Roosiyan building field supply depot my caculation is 1 depot supply 3km radius, and they are systematically house by house mohalla by mohalla street by street capturing Ookarain my guesstimate is it is 1.8 year campaign.

Roos cuda suda wuda is based on certain principles of warfare and combat.
Some of these principles are based on common sense.
If you have reached close to Kiev dig in as Ukrainian will now fight on 2 fronts. You Donbass objective is a lot less expensive if you have less to fight against no?
So unless one has a direct line to Putin and his magic lamp then the question is which cuda suda wuda is more logical than the other.

[dnivas]

With war going for so long, I keep wondering what is supplying the Ukr with fuel, food, arms/munition especially in the forward areas. Fuel is depleting rapidly almost going down to zilch, keeping an army fed is huge logistics and arms supply is subject to the Russian air attacks via rockets/missiles. And of course command and control is hugely missing. It is up to the Ukr units to fend for themselves with whatever little they have, if any. Appreciate any gyan on these aspects.

According to some news reports, the Ukr army was about to invade the donbass regions in March 2022, if the attacking force was in the hundreds of thousands , they must have prepositioned months of supplies in forward bases [which they are now stuck in]. I am sure they have lots of food water and ammo. the only thing they seem to be out of is lube and oil based products. That's my understanding perusing Russian and independent media.

[John]

With war going for so long, I keep wondering what is supplying the Ukr with fuel, food, arms/munition especially in the forward areas. Fuel is depleting rapidly almost going down to zilch, keeping an army fed is huge logistics and arms supply is subject to the Russian air attacks via rockets/missiles. And of course command and control is hugely missing. It is up to the Ukr units to fend for themselves with whatever little they have, if any. Appreciate any gyan on these aspects.

According to some news reports, the Ukr army was about to invade the donbass regions in March 2022, if the attacking force was in the hundreds of thousands , they must have prepositioned months of supplies in forward bases [which they are now stuck in]. I am sure they have lots of food water and ammo. the only thing they seem to be out of is lube and oil based products. That's my understanding perusing Russian and independent media.

As I said earlier all the Ukr forces where dug in so there was no evidence of any planned attack by Ukr Armed forces. Also they would need a lot more than 60k forces to pull off an attack and there was no sign of troop build up either (in other hand remember all vids and sat images of Russian build up as early as last year). But in other hand they were digging in further and storing supplies for pro longed siege/conflict and ironically that is exactly what’s happening.

You make a case in Feb that in few years Ukranian army as it slowly starts modernizing could be able to pull off an attack while fending off Russian Army but not in Mar 2022.

[NRao]

FYI

Russia warns NATO: transport carrying weapons in Ukraine is a 'target'

[Cain Marko]

I'm taking all news and claims that Russia is losing this war with a big bucket of salt. They're loathe to call this a war even. Just a military op. Losing? Things are looking just the opposite. The points raised by Nrao and Dnivas are good studying points.
The grinding war works in Russian favor, not against it. This is a country that is huge on natural resources and food production. They can easily afford to grind it out. Europe can't. Ukraine even less so. The problem is manpower, but that goes both ways. A long drawn war allows Russia to train more conscripts. Ukranians just don't have the wherewithal to do this. The infrastructure is shot to hell and their forces are scattered, short on supplies. They've exhausted manpower and even recruited jailbirds. NATO can fight till the last ukranian, but they're very close to that last ukranian, and every day gets them closer. Where are the ukranians going to find the men? the result will be a Russian victory, slow and well savored and therefore all the more cruel for the Ukraine. And their objectives are clear, in order of priority:
1. Create a buffer zone and free Donbas, luhansk
2. Get Ukraine to stay out of nato
3.Grab as many strategically relevant positions as possible
4. Cause the dollar to weaken as reserve currency

Do this slowly with as little civilian damage as possible. Hence we don't see too much shekinaw.