Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[John]

Some info on Ukr offensive in Kherson

More information is coming out regarding the #Ukrainian #Kherson offensive. #UAF is attacking from two directions & has liberated the towns of Lozove and Bilohirka. Davydiv has likely been fully recaptured as well. Kostromka, Bruskynske & Andriivka are contested.

https://twitter.com/aggregateosint/stat ... K908JEcFDA

[Hari Nair]

Some info on Ukr offensive in Kherson

More information is coming out regarding the #Ukrainian #Kherson offensive. #UAF is attacking from two directions & has liberated the towns of Lozove and Bilohirka. Davydiv has likely been fully recaptured as well. Kostromka, Bruskynske & Andriivka are contested.

https://twitter.com/aggregateosint/stat ... K908JEcFDA

John Saab, I do believe we are perhaps clutching at straws?

I said it before and I am saying it again in very plain language...
This forum needs to be neutral, objective and in tune with realistic assessments, which unfortunately due to certain posts - is NOT meeting that objective.

The Ukr "offensive" in Kherson is just a flash in the pan.

Kindly reconcile with the Austrian assessment I had posted a few minutes earlier, with a rebuttal if possible?

[Dilbu]

Like Hitler believed in his game changing new weapons UKR is now pinning their hopes on HIMAR coming from unkil. Since Russia can see it coming weeks earlier how effective will it be on the ground when it finally arrives is anyone's guess.

[Cyrano]

Ukraine has its SBU, Military, National Guard, NeoNaughty Battalions, Territorial Defense groups, sundry extremist militias, and finally its Foreign Legion made up of voluntary foreign ex-soldiers/psychos/thrill seekers/fortnite players.

To this, we need to add conscript battalions that have been made since the conflict has started. SBU & UNG are catching anyone able bodied on the street and giving them on the spot subpoenas - in a "trespassers will be hired" mode. These are possibly several tens of thousands inducted by now and continuing.

The artful comm squeeze maintained by the Kiev regime doesnt help get an accurate picture of which of the above are doing what exactly. And who is actually making decisions and who is giving orders to whom. But we can make a reasonable guess based on publicly avl information.

While reporting Ukr successes or failures, it will help understand whats going on better if we figure out which of the above is/are involved and who is taking credit or taking casualties.

Hope this helps.

[Rakesh]

John Saab, I do believe we are perhaps clutching at straws?

I said it before and I am saying it again in very plain language...
This forum needs to be neutral, objective and in tune with realistic assessments, which unfortunately due to certain posts - is NOT meeting that objective.

The Ukr "offensive" in Kherson is just a flash in the pan.

Kindly reconcile with the Austrian assessment I had posted a few minutes earlier, with a rebuttal if possible?

My reply here ---> viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7887&p=2552019#p2552019

[Cyrano]

I read your reply Rakesh ji,
Agree with all of it. There are also a rare few like your's truly who fall between various stools, whose allegiance is to India and more importantly and here I speak for myself, the Indian Dharmic world view.

What Hari sir is pointing out is not that there can't be a pro American camp, but defending it with questionable posts that can mislead from the reality. I'm sure his caution applies if it were the other way around as well .

[Rakesh]

I fully agree on the first para Cyrano-ji. With the exception of you calling me -ji.

I agree in principle to the second para. But refute the points with evidence and arguments.

To date, you are doing that quite well

[Baikul]

On sources: I feel questionable sources have been used in this thread on both sides of the argument (argument as outlined by Rakesh ji). That’s totally fine in my opinion, one needs to absorb all kinds of data to arrive at a conclusion. Unless you’re citing outright loonies, which hasn’t happened.

Personally there are sources I don’t trust. For instance I don’t trust ISW which has become a shill for western nations. Sad because it seems to be good earlier. I don’t trust Scott Ritter who’s been (IMO) quite outlandish in his analysis. Kadyrov and his telegram is a joke. But taking this argument further why would you trust even official Russian or Ukrainian sources either? They’re in a war, it’s their job to lie.

My first point is that no source is reliable. You parse the data and you make the call. However, and this is my second point, I try never to forget that I’m in Team India, not Team Russia or Team USA. Hence I don’t really care who wins or loses (despite having affection for Russia, as a a someone who grew up in the 80s, and the US, where I lived and worked for a long time) except how it impacts India.

At this stage of the war you’ll get rumours. In Kherson the UAF has been remarkably silent on its counteroffensive, and you’ll find sources saying they are (a) succeeding and (b) failing!

Similarly up North East, Ukrainian presidential adviser Arestovich just said a few hours ago that UAF deliberately trapped Russians at Severnodonetsk! This is just on Telegram right now. It’s crazy!

Edit - his twitter also - https://twitter.com/arestovych/status/1 ... 4Ywft32qQQ

So who knows? Only time will tell.

[Deans]

Ukraine has its SBU, Military, National Guard, NeoNaughty Battalions, Territorial Defense groups, sundry extremist militias, and finally its Foreign Legion made up of voluntary foreign ex-soldiers/psychos/thrill seekers/fortnite players.

To simplify - Ukraine has the Army (19 brigades), Territorial defense (27 brigades pre war), National guard (paramilitary police).
Reserve: 9 brigades (manned by conscripts once war breaks out).

Azov/Neo-Nazi and International volunteers are part of Territorial defense units.
After reserve brigades get formed, conscripts are used to fill gaps in depleted army/TD units

The total size of these units are bigger than the invading Russians.
I think what militaries across the world will evaluate is weather depleted Russian regular army units can prevail upon Ukrainian units that are
increasingly manned by irregular forces/ conscripts (albeit equipped by NATO).

[ldev]

On sources: I feel questionable sources have been used in this thread on both sides of the argument (argument as outlined by Rakesh ji). That’s totally fine in my opinion, one needs to absorb all kinds of data to arrive at a conclusion. Unless you’re citing outright loonies, which hasn’t happened.
...........
So who knows? Only time will tell.

Agree. That's why I posted sometime ago that all that I can see is that after ~100 days of fighting Russia has captured an incremental ~15% of Ukraine territory plus they hold on to the 5% that is Crimea. Best to check up on progress once a week or even once a month and see what is tangible and visible on the ground because I think that is the only reality. The rest is nothing more than narratives being built up by either side.

About the aims of different parties IMO:

Russia would like to "punish" Ukraine in whatever way it can. The original objective of regime change in Kiev has been abandoned for now with the much more achievable objective of the land bridge which is almost done. Denying Ukraine access to the Black Sea is probably next on the list of priorities for Russia. That would include the capture of Odessa, a city which holds a special place in Russian history.

Ukraine for it's part would like to push Russia out of all of it's territory including Crimea. And if it had access to weapons with the reach to attack inside Russia it would gladly do so. Ukraine would love to see NATO being directly involved in the war against Russia, to hell with the escalation risks and that is precisely why the US and NATO are being very careful about not supplying offensive weapons with the relevant ranges to Ukraine.

The US and NATO would like to see a weakened Russia and so the longer the war goes on the better it is from their viewpoint.

[Deans]

On sources: I feel questionable sources have been used in this thread on both sides of the argument (argument as outlined by Rakesh ji). That’s totally fine in my opinion, one needs to absorb all kinds of data to arrive at a conclusion. Unless you’re citing outright loonies, which hasn’t happened.

Both Russian and Ukrainian sources make exaggerated claims. In phase 1, it was the Russians doing it more, now it seems to be the Ukrainians.
I am very skeptical of any claim that is certain of enemy casualties and silent of own casualties.

Official Russian info is meant for a Russian audience. Ukraine's claims are meant for an International audience, which is why they are quoted more
by even supposedly neutral media like India.

There are some ways to figure out what is happening.

When a town is liberated by the Russians, the standard procedure (replicated from WW2) is for the Red army and Russian flags to be raised in the town square. This is shown on TV. The next day, townspeople talk of all the terrible things the Ukrainians did, relief material gets distributed etc. Until that happens the town is not in Russian control.

During an attack or counter attack, the winning side has the opportunity to film destroyed enemy material & bodies and interview POWs. Russia has done that in Kherson, Ukraine hasn't. The position of the front line 2-3 days after the attack, gives a good indication of territory capture.

[Cyrano]

Exactly Dean's ji. If one can string together a few days reports and cross check it's possible to parse what is going on quite reliably, and one need not stay in the fog saying that everybody is lying.

Ldev ji,
The frontlines in Donbas have not moved by a lot of kms for several weeks now. But I'm sure you agree that the Russians have been shelling massively and uniterruptedly and the defending Ukr forces have not been able to do the same. Consequently, the Russians are a couple of millions of shells poorer, the Ukranians are a couple of 10s of thousands of soldiers poorer.

Shells can be produced in a factory and resupplied easily, soldiers can't. That should tell us where the war is going... No matter who is claiming what.

And thank you Rakesh ji.

[John]

Some info on Ukr offensive in Kherson

https://twitter.com/aggregateosint/stat ... K908JEcFDA

John Saab, I do believe we are perhaps clutching at straws?

I said it before and I am saying it again in very plain language...
This forum needs to be neutral, objective and in tune with realistic assessments, which unfortunately due to certain posts - is NOT meeting that objective.

The Ukr "offensive" in Kherson is just a flash in the pan.

Kindly reconcile with the Austrian assessment I had posted a few minutes earlier, with a rebuttal if possible?

How is the post not objective that same source was reporting Russian advance is considered objective but if they report Ukr advance it is considered not objective?

I will look thru the post on Austrian assessment and reply when I get back in weekend.

[Cyrano]

(in a Tweet attributed to)
<<<Advisor to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, Alexei Arestovich continues to deceive the public.

"We trapped the Russian army in Severodonetsk by pretending to leave the city to them. Now the Russian command is in shock with what is happening on the front."

Apparently, Russians are shocked by the fact that the entire Ukrainian army in Severodonetsk is blocked in the industrial zone and is sitting in the basements of the" Azot "factory. And the trap is that, as in Mariupol, you have to wait until they surrender.
>>>

[Tanaji]

Coming back to HiMARS, apparently 4 training units are being transferred immediately with upto 50 more planned. The plan seems to be to use these as a counter to Russian artillery tactics of pounding a given area and then taking it over. With their longer range, they can counter Russian artillery.

What I don’t understand is even 100 is too small a number to make a big difference, plus these will require a significant number of resources to replenish as rockets are heavier than shells…

[Pratyush]

MLRS, when coupled with TB2 targeting information will be a frightening weapon on the battlefield.

When employed with shoot and scoot tactics.

Imagine, TB 2 located a target 30 KMS behind the front. Draw a circle 80 kms from the target. The MLRS can be anywhere inside the Ukrainian side of the FEBA within 80 kms of the target. One full salvo of 6 rockets from 6 to 8 MLRS vehicles and then they run away.

Rinse and repeat 20 to 30 times a day per battery for different targets. You can understand how much damage they can do.

The targetting data will not just be available from the TB2. It will be from the NATO surveillance platforms as well. Because this is a proxy war between NATO and Russia over Ukraine.

It will become imperative for Russians to be able to hit the ammunition dumps of reloads with precision. Else this will bleed the Russians.

[Hari Nair]

John Saab, I do believe we are perhaps clutching at straws?

I said it before and I am saying it again in very plain language...
This forum needs to be neutral, objective and in tune with realistic assessments, which unfortunately due to certain posts - is NOT meeting that objective.

The Ukr "offensive" in Kherson is just a flash in the pan.

Kindly reconcile with the Austrian assessment I had posted a few minutes earlier, with a rebuttal if possible?

My reply here ---> viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7887&p=2552019#p2552019

A few quick points without de-railing this thread...
• My post in this Combat Tactics and Strategy thread was in response to a lack of an overall objective analysis of the emerging battle picture in the Donbass region.
• The logic that any and every analysis is always from a pro-Russki or pro-Yank camp point-of-view is not really accurate or even desirable. For example -I may personally want a particular side to win due to a personal bias. However, if my analysis is coloured due to my personal bias and I overlook the facts on the ground, then that analysis is worth only as a brief propaganda write-up, which certainly will be overtaken by events and will be trashed.
• The initial days of the war had its fog of information and it was difficult to ascertain what was going on. However, with the campaign now entering its fourth month the picture is getting clearer.
• Unfortunately, our tactics thread does not have clear posts on the present military situation – the criticality of the battles for Donbass region and the overall picture of battles and possible outcomes. There are a few posts quoting a micro-picture of some fire-fight or event in some sector to make or buttress a claim.
• My post quotes the Austrian Military Academy’s objective analysis of the progress of the campaign so far. Its perhaps the best open-source analysis that I have come across so far. I am deliberately provoking a debate on that analysis to enhance the level of our discourse.

The link to the analysis is here : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpC1kXh ... Bundesheer
I would urge more members to kindly take time to go through it and comment.

[Deans]

MLRS, when coupled with TB2 targeting information will be a frightening weapon on the battlefield.

When employed with shoot and scoot tactics.

Imagine, TB 2 located a target 30 KMS behind the front. Draw a circle 80 kms from the target. The MLRS can be anywhere inside the Ukrainian side of the FEBA within 80 kms of the target. One full salvo of 6 rockets from 6 to 8 MLRS vehicles and then they run away.

Rinse and repeat 20 to 30 times a day per battery for different targets. You can understand how much damage they can do.

The targetting data will not just be available from the TB2. It will be from the NATO surveillance platforms as well. Because this is a proxy war between NATO and Russia over Ukraine.

It will become imperative for Russians to be able to hit the ammunition dumps of reloads with precision. Else this will bleed the Russians.

Every Russian division has a MLRS regiment as good as the HIMARS. That supports the activity of multiple BTGs.
Russian drones are also very active over the battlefield. Russian Electronic warfare and jamming of Ukrainian GPS signals is probably superior to
what Ukraine is doing. My point is the Russians are fully aware of what the MLRS can do and what its limitations are.

[Deans]

Re: Kherson. The frontline is approximately the same as the district boundary of Kherson and has not moved in the past 2 months, except for a
village here and there. It seems clear that Russia will consolidate its hold on Kherson. I don't see them making any move towards Nikoliyav. unless they have overwhelming superiority. In the meantime targets of value in Nikoliyav are being hit daily.

[Hari Nair]

Re: Kherson. The frontline is approximately the same as the district boundary of Kherson and has not moved in the past 2 months, except for a village here and there. ....In the meantime targets of value in Nikoliyav are being hit daily.

Ukr counterattacks in Kherson and Kharkhiv were perhaps the correct thing to do (from the Ukr perspective), in an attempt to relieve the terrific pressure Russia brought on to bear in the Donbass sector, specifically in Popasnaya (which ultimately resulted in their breakthrough).

Unfortunately, the results for Ukr counterattacks have not been commensurate with their efforts put in. It appears the Russkis withdrew, brought the advancing Ukr forces into the open and within their fierce arty range resulting in reversals.

It appears that yet another Ukr counterattack attempt is now underway in Kherson, as John pointed out.

On a sidenote - its difficult to imagine that Ukr Army high command actually sent in Territorial Army Bde reserves to the frontlines in Popasnaya to 'fill the gaps' in their defenses. TA Bdes and Bns are usually used to guard the rear. Its very evident that their present positions in Donbass was not tenable from a military stand-point and perhaps political pressure was brought on to bear on the Ukr Army to stand and fight, instead of a planned retreat to re-group and fight from better second line defenses. Whatever may be the reason, Russians instead focused their attack on these TA forces to penetrate the Ukr lines.

MLRS, when coupled with TB2 targeting information will be a frightening weapon on the battlefield. .....
It will become imperative for Russians to be able to hit the ammunition dumps of reloads with precision. Else this will bleed the Russians.

The HIMARS is still at least three weeks away from actual deployment in any sector of ops in Ukr. Three weeks is a very long time, given that the Russians have achieved a breakthrough in Donbass.

The rocket arty systems need to be shipped or airlifted in sufficient numbers to a transit facility in Europe, Ukr crew then need to be trained to use these. Training crew on a new system takes months. Even if the training is truncated to a week or 10 days, these bulky launchers and rockets then need to be transported across Ukr to the East. I suspect the Russians have put in an strict interdict line east of the Dnieper river to choke supplies coming to the Ukr Army in Donbass. Its anyone's guess as to the actual number of weapon systems and crew that are able to make their way to the frontline.

The rockets are perhaps terminally guided to achieve their claimed CEP. With Russians jamming the GPS in the sector of battle, their actual effectiveness remains to be seen.

[Deans]

Re: Kherson. The frontline is approximately the same as the district boundary of Kherson and has not moved in the past 2 months, except for a village here and there. ....In the meantime targets of value in Nikoliyav are being hit daily.

Ukr counterattacks in Kherson and Kharkhiv were perhaps the correct thing to do (from the Ukr perspective), in an attempt to relieve the terrific pressure Russia brought on to bear in the Donbass sector, specifically in Popasnaya (which ultimately resulted in their breakthrough).

Unfortunately, the results for Ukr counterattacks have not been commensurate with their efforts put in. It appears the Russkis withdrew, brought the advancing Ukr forces into the open and within their fierce arty range resulting in reversals.

It appears that yet another Ukr counterattack attempt is now underway in Kherson, as John pointed out.

On a sidenote - its difficult to imagine that Ukr Army high command actually sent in Territorial Army Bde reserves to the frontlines in Popasnaya to 'fill the gaps' in their defenses.

Hari ji, I am in Bangalore too. We should catch up.

The problem with Zelansky's counterattacks are that he is using them to improve his position in negotiations (by taking territory), but each failed
counterattack is worsening the strength and morale of his forces. Almost all his regular army brigades are in the Donbass. He's attacking with
half trained territorial army units, with no air cover and visible to Russian artillery. Russian TV has shown clips of the drone acquiring the Ukrainian column and then artillery hitting it.
It also seems that in the Donbass (going by soldiers clips on social media), regular Ukrainian units are using territorial forces as cannon fodder, because they are more aware of what Russian artillery can do. A lot of western equipment is being hijacked by regular army, before it reaches territorial units. The problem is that those regular units are not withdrawing from the Donbass to reform and re-equip, but are staying in position and each day will be less able to avoid encirclement, or conduct an organised withdrawal.

[Baikul]

[

• Unfortunately, our tactics thread does not have clear posts on the present military situation – the criticality of the battles for Donbass region and the overall picture of battles and possible outcomes. There are a few posts quoting a micro-picture of some fire-fight or event in some sector to make or buttress a claim.

Completely disagree. If you go back on this thread (and it’s precursor) there have been enough macro analysis admittedly within the rigorous definition of ‘combat’. We’ve been taking about this for a while - John ji, Deans ji, Cyrano ji, ldev ji, nrao ji, bala ji and a bunch of others.

My post quotes the Austrian Military Academy’s objective analysis of the progress of the campaign so far. Its perhaps the best open-source analysis that I have come across so far. I am deliberately provoking a debate on that analysis to enhance the level of our discourse.

Totally agree. That was indeed one of the best sources to come out. Thank you for it, especially the English translation.

[Baikul]

…all that I can see is that after ~100 days of fighting Russia has captured an incremental ~15% of Ukraine territory plus they hold on to the 5% that is Crimea. Best to check up on progress once a week or even once a month and see what is tangible and visible on the ground because I think that is the only reality. The rest is nothing more than narratives being built up by either side.

…..

As opposed to passionate followers measuring gains by inches/ hour, this probably is the best metric to measure who’s doing well or not. 5-15 days incremental analysis.

Of course we all agree that victory in this war implies ownership of land. Not some fuzzy ‘local governance@ concept.

[dnivas]

Some info on Ukr offensive in Kherson

More information is coming out regarding the #Ukrainian #Kherson offensive. #UAF is attacking from two directions & has liberated the towns of Lozove and Bilohirka. Davydiv has likely been fully recaptured as well. Kostromka, Bruskynske & Andriivka are contested.

https://twitter.com/aggregateosint/stat ... K908JEcFDA

That's the town. it's one a little village. We have heard umpteen Ukranian wonder weapons and rushes and counter strikes and assaults and they have all petered out.

[ks_sachin]

Baikul,

On the flip side perhaps Hari sir is the only one who has actually seen combat so knows a good description of the engagement in military terms when he sees one?

[Baikul]

Sachin, I give complete respect to someone who’s actually seen war, as opposed to someone like me who’s combat experience is limited to arguments with SHQ (although I think I should be given a medal for my valour in this regard).

However, I stand by my point. Read this thread and you will see attempts to analyse the macro situation. How good or nor that analysis is, well that’s another point.

Edited much later: Nair saar, so I’m sure I’m not misinterpreted, this was not meant to be dissing you. Apologies if it seems to come out that way.

[Deans]

Of course we all agree that victory in this war implies ownership of land. Not some fuzzy ‘local governance@ concept.

Russian doctrine is that victory = destruction of the enemy. That will automatically lead to occupation of territory.
In the Donbass, they are fighting a deliberate war of attrition wearing down the Ukrainians with constant artillery and air strikes, rather than Blitzkrieg style tactics. That said, Russia cannot claim victory unless it controls all of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces and captures enough territory to protect Crimea (land bridge through Mariupol) and protection of water supply (Kherson).

[Baikul]

Of course we all agree that victory in this war implies ownership of land. Not some fuzzy ‘local governance@ concept.

….. Russia cannot claim victory unless it controls all of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces and captures enough territory to protect Crimea (land bridge through Mariupol) and protection of water supply (Kherson).

Agreed. I think that’s their goal for now. Anything less will mean trouble for Putin.

[John]

I know there was some discussion Russian artillery vs Ukrainian. My take is, Russia have nos (supposedly 10-1 in some areas) and the willingness to absorb casualties where as Ukrainian have better accuracy thanks to training and counter battery radar ( Russian where even supposedly trying to use the captured American radars).

Here is video that highlights from Russian channel shows how quickly Ukr start hitting a TOR system after it fires

https://twitter.com/julianroepcke/statu ... IwwXnGojIQ

[Baikul]

I know there was some discussion Russian artillery vs Ukrainian. My take is, Russia have nos (supposedly 10-1 in some areas) and the willingness to absorb casualties where as Ukrainian have better accuracy thanks to training and counter battery radar ( Russian where even supposedly trying to use the captured American radars).

Here is video that highlights from Russian channel shows how quickly Ukr start hitting a TOR system after it fires

https://twitter.com/julianroepcke/statu ... IwwXnGojIQ

Great guide on counter battery fire.

In principle I disagree with your belief that Russia =
Mass plus ability to absorb casualties, while Ukraine = better / western skills.

One, we underestimate Russia, and two, we overestimate Ukrainian skills. UAF are just like the Russian army if not worse, except for their special/ selectively equipped forces. This is just one video.

[mody]

https://youtu.be/Y1urPMMB77c

A good analysis of Russian airforce's performance and role upto now in the war. Slightly long at about 40 minutes, but a good analysis of the Russian airwar doctrine.

[John]

I know there was some discussion Russian artillery vs Ukrainian. My take is, Russia have nos (supposedly 10-1 in some areas) and the willingness to absorb casualties where as Ukrainian have better accuracy thanks to training and counter battery radar ( Russian where even supposedly trying to use the captured American radars).

Here is video that highlights from Russian channel shows how quickly Ukr start hitting a TOR system after it fires

https://twitter.com/julianroepcke/statu ... IwwXnGojIQ

Great guide on counter battery fire.

In principle I disagree with your belief that Russia =
Mass plus ability to absorb casualties, while Ukraine = better / western skills.

One, we underestimate Russia, and two, we overestimate Ukrainian skills. UAF are just like the Russian army if not worse, except for their special/ selectively equipped forces. This is just one video.

That’s not just my assessment even folks like Igor have noted that and even gone on to say 155mm used by rest of world is more accurate (I am not certain of that).

Anyway Severodonetsk is great example of why you can’t listen to propaganda from either side, Russian claimed they had it in bags days ago and still scene of heavy fighting where as Ukrainian reports of retreating most of its forces also turn out to be false.

[Deans]

my assessment even folks like Igor have noted that and even gone on to say 155mm used by rest of world is more accurate (I am not certain of that).

Anyway Severodonetsk is great example of why you can’t listen to propaganda from either side, Russian claimed they had it in bags days ago and still scene of heavy fighting where as Ukrainian reports of retreating most of its forces also turn out to be false.

Russian doctrine calls for a heavy volume of artillery fire on the target area, not accurate fire on the target. They are using drones to spot targets
and adjust fire (lot of footage on Russian TV).

Severodonetsk-Lichansk is 3 distinct areas.
The main (residential) area of Severodonetsk, which is in Russian hands.
The industrial area, including the biggest chemical plant in Ukraine, where about 500 defenders have retreated to (another Azovstal). &
Lisichansk - across the river and on a hill. Russia will probably surround it and not take it by a costly frontal assault. They can't shell it, as most of
the population is Russian (most Ukrainians would have fled).

[Hari Nair]

Hari ji, I am in Bangalore too. We should catch up.

The problem with Zelansky's counterattacks are that he is using them to improve his position in negotiations (by taking territory), but each failed
counterattack is worsening the strength and morale of his forces. Almost all his regular army brigades are in the Donbass. He's attacking with
half trained territorial army units, with no air cover and visible to Russian artillery. Russian TV has shown clips of the drone acquiring the Ukrainian column and then artillery hitting it.
It also seems that in the Donbass (going by soldiers clips on social media), regular Ukrainian units are using territorial forces as cannon fodder, because they are more aware of what Russian artillery can do... The problem is that those regular units are not withdrawing from the Donbass to reform and re-equip, but are staying in position and each day will be less able to avoid encirclement, or conduct an organised withdrawal.

Re: catching up in Bangalore- definitely yes!

Its now seems that the much promised HIMARS rocket arty system has been scaled down to only four launchers with ammo!!!
Ref US DOD release:
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stori ... o-ukraine/

As I said earlier, even with airlifting all four launchers with ammo, it will be at least three more weeks before these are at the front lines (provided the Russkis do not interdict and destroy some or all of them.

It now appears the US is beginning to walk away from Ukraine. That's also reflected in Biden's latest statement suggesting Ukraine may need to negotiate with Russia including possibility of ceding land - far cry from the initial bellicosity including demanding regime change in Russia.

From the looks of it, it appears that there is strong political override in Ukraine, to order the troops to fight till the inevitable end. Does not make any military sense.

...
Anyway Severodonetsk is great example of why you can’t listen to propaganda from either side, Russian claimed they had it in bags days ago and still scene of heavy fighting where as Ukrainian reports of retreating most of its forces also turn out to be false.

Russian doctrine calls for a heavy volume of artillery fire on the target area, not accurate fire on the target. They are using drones to spot targets
and adjust fire (lot of footage on Russian TV).

Severodonetsk-Lichansk is 3 distinct areas.
The main (residential) area of Severodonetsk, which is in Russian hands.
The industrial area, including the biggest chemical plant in Ukraine, where about 500 defenders have retreated to (another Azovstal). &
Lisichansk - across the river and on a hill. Russia will probably surround it and not take it by a costly frontal assault. They can't shell it, as most of
the population is Russian (most Ukrainians would have fled).

Severedonetsk is gone, as far as Ukr is concerned. They should be more worried about extricating about 12000 + troops in that sector that are being increasingly encircled by the Russian pincer movement.

Intense artillery firing flattens the landscape, my dear friends. It really is about the volume of fire that be brought down to bear, day and night on a focused area. Russia has the MIC back-up to sustain such terrific rates of shelling. The Russian doctrine calls for very intense arty and air strikes to soften the enemy before attack. Check out the picture of the landscape in the Austrian analysis I had given the link to earlier. The whole area is pockmarked - that ties in with journos and social media accounts that most Ukr casualties were even without sighting the Russian enemy.

[Tanaji]

I like how western sources routinely pass off Ukranian claims as facrt without on the ground checking: apparently they have recaptured 20% of Severdonetsk from the Russians.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/uk ... ar-AAY4arZ

It may or may not be true but there is no confirmation

[John]

I like how western sources routinely pass off Ukranian claims as facrt without on the ground checking: apparently they have recaptured 20% of Severdonetsk from the Russians.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/uk ... ar-AAY4arZ

It may or may not be true but there is no confirmation

It was confirmed in Russian side by Igor

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/15 ... ELngkYPVyA

Also Luhansk head noted there are heavy casualties especially among Chechnyan fighters who were caught off guard by it

https://twitter.com/hromadske/status/15 ... O5ku0sUjEw

[Cyrano]

Last stand perhaps, because if they lose this city and let the Russians reach Krematorsk it will all be over. Still kudos to Ukrs for fighting back.

[Baikul]

I like how western sources routinely pass off Ukranian claims as facrt without on the ground checking: apparently they have recaptured 20% of Severdonetsk from the Russians.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/uk ... ar-AAY4arZ

It may or may not be true but there is no confirmation

It was confirmed in Russian side by Igor

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/15 ... ELngkYPVyA

….

Just thought I’d mention that’s a twitter link quoting Girkin. Below is the original source:

https://t.me/strelkovii/2647

FWIW, Girkin is the guy from the Russian side who were among a the first to speak about the river crossing casualties earlier.

Last stand perhaps, because if they lose this city and let the Russians reach Krematorsk it will all be over. Still kudos to Ukrs for fighting back.

There’s not a lot of information coming out of either the Kherson or Severodonetsk fronts the past few days. So there’s lots of claim and counter claims. Should clear up in a day or two.

[NRao]

Russia will strike West if US rockets hit us, says Putin ally

“If, God forbid, these weapons are used against Russian territory then our armed forces will have no other choice but to strike decision-making centres,” said Dmitry Medvedev, a former prime minister under Putin who is deputy chairman of Russia’s national security council.

[John]

Russia will strike West if US rockets hit us, says Putin ally

“If, God forbid, these weapons are used against Russian territory then our armed forces will have no other choice but to strike decision-making centres,” said Dmitry Medvedev, a former prime minister under Putin who is deputy chairman of Russia’s national security council.

I believe these rockets the Ukrainians are putting together will have bigger impact, one unit alone has supposedly received 3 of them. Unlike the ones from Libya and Syria these are stabilized

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/sta ... BbLjBJUswg