Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 08 Jun 2022 01:00

A great post after a long time. Thank you Parasu-ji.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 08 Jun 2022 08:40

Parasu wrote: In Ukraine, there is a large section of Russian speaking population which does not want to go under the Russian govt's rule. They think they are fighting for modern democracy. As crazy as it sounds this is true. And this has been admitted by Russians themselves at the highest levels.

This is the reason why Ukrainian forces have not simply melted away, considering that 45% of the population in Ukraine speaks Russian. Basically, the Russian speaking population in Ukraine itself is divided between pro-Ukraine and pro-independence groups.

I'd like to put this in a more nuanced way. About 20% of the Ukrainian population is ethnically Russian. Every adult would know Russian.
A significant number of families are of mixed Russian-Ukrainian ethnicity (as they are in Russia too). They would like peaceful coexistence with Russia.
I agree that many ethnic Russians did not want to be part of Russia - which is why Russia also felt autonomy within Ukraine, as decided in Minsk-2,
was the best option.

bala · Post by **bala** » 08 Jun 2022 10:02

Russia also felt autonomy within Ukraine, as decided in Minsk-2, was the best option.

Trust the global Anglo-Saxon breed to f-k up the world. They did it in past, all those lines in the Sand in the middle east and of course the partition of India based on dubious religious lines. The entire world is reeling from the after affects and today they continue with the same demented thinking. It is a defect in their genes which curses the world at large.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 08 Jun 2022 10:34

Some latest update:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61G5DSeF7ek

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 08 Jun 2022 19:30

News paper NRC, The Netherlands 8th June 2022
War machines provided by EU o UKR (latest)

M270 MLRS 310 KM range/unknown quantity
M142 HIMARS /4/6 1ATACMS rockets
MQ-1C Grey Eagle /4/4 hellfire, 8 stingers,4 guided bombs/autonomy 25 hrs/ 390 km range
Leopard 2A4 Tanks//40

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 09 Jun 2022 02:27

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/eastern-u ... -1.6278984 no role of infantry, under Russian artillery barrage

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/15346360 ... UGXDwGuWRw
Russian forces are now largely in control of the key eastern Ukrainian city of Severodonetsk after fierce fighting, the region's governor said, as UN chief Antonio Guterres starkly warned the war's impact on the world was worsening http://u.afp.com/wEXb

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 09 Jun 2022 08:24

First Ukrainian commander defects to Russia

In Kherson region.

--------‐------------------

2 weeks ago Alex and Alexander had reported that many senior officers in RU and UKR forces were friends and classmates, some family friends.

Last week Lira stated that he expects UKR commanders to take over, from Elensky, when things get bad.

Past 24 hours the Belarusian prez claimed a coup or close to one in UKR and Poland about to occupy western parts of UKR.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 09 Jun 2022 09:47

2 of the 3 Ukrainian counter-offensives that I outlined in a previous post have failed, as acknowledged by Ukraine's MOD.

Severodonetsk - Russia has regained all the territory inside the city it initially lost and have captured more yesterday.

Kherson - Both thrusts into Russian territory failed with heavy Ukrainian casualties. In one case Ukraine had crossed a river to attack. Russians in
turn, crossed that river and have a bridgehead on the Ukrainian side.

Kharkov - Still no clear picture after the situation map I posted. Russians are trying to cut off the Ukrainian bridgehead on the eastern side of
the Donetsk river, by attacking the western side.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 09 Jun 2022 09:49

[quote="NRao"]First Ukrainian commander defects to Russia

In Kherson region.

His interview has been shown on Russian TV. He's a Battalion commander.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 09 Jun 2022 10:10

IndraD wrote:https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/eastern-u ... -1.6278984 no role of infantry, under Russian artillery barrage

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/15346360 ... UGXDwGuWRw
Russian forces are now largely in control of the key eastern Ukrainian city of Severodonetsk after fierce fighting, the region's governor said, as UN chief Antonio Guterres starkly warned the war's impact on the world was worsening http://u.afp.com/wEXb

Unlike the UK and US "free media" which keeps painting a rosy picture of how valiantly UKR forces are fighting, and about to reach the doorstep of Moscow, this ^^^ Canadian article really paints a bleak outlook for the UKR.....

"You have to understand that there are two castes in this [UKR[ country," he said. "There's the upper caste, and then there's us: the lower caste. We are just pawns. Nothing more. The upper caste gets the money, and we get the command: 'Forward!'

"That's how it's always worked here [in Ukraine]," he said, before emphasizing that he doesn't expect anyone to believe him.

"No one here wants to hear the truth," said Nikita. "They just want the beautiful story of how Ukraine is united. But here, we're f--ked."

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 09 Jun 2022 11:54

Inside the battle for Severodonetsk, where a Ukrainian unit of 60 was reduced to just 4 soldiers
Michael Godwin - Yesterday 3:01 PM

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/in ... f4822af452

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 09 Jun 2022 20:10

The race to arm Ukraine highlights West’s worry of losing tech secrets
https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... h-secrets/
08 June 2022

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 09 Jun 2022 20:11

Ukraine to buy Polish howitzers as long war looms with Russia
https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... th-russia/
08 June 2022

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 09 Jun 2022 20:12

As Russians advance in Donbas, invasion success hangs in the balance
https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoin ... e-balance/
08 June 2022

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 09 Jun 2022 20:42

I guess this could go elsewhere also, but posting here: Russian sources captured British fighters (on UA side) Sean Pinner and Aiden Eslin (also Moroccan Saadoun Brahim), have been sentenced to death.

https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/37992

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 09 Jun 2022 20:52

Posting the source video by Alexander Mercouris (A Briton - in London). He is of Russian descendance and obviously in touch with his family tree in Russia. I think he can speak/read Russian, so he sources a lot of Russian news item. Posting this because "Ukraine Must Surrender Kherson Zaporozhie" (this is beyond "Donbas" - WAY beyond) and it has too much info for me to transcribe.

26 minutes long:

Ukraine Must Surrender Kherson Zaporozhie

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 10 Jun 2022 04:23

https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1534991432582414359

Some shooting and scooting with artillery, hauling before UA counter battery starts working. Unclear if it's Kherson area.

Embedded video

Follow on video:

https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1534991495476002839

John · Post by **John** » 10 Jun 2022 04:31

NRao wrote:https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1534991432582414359

Some shooting and scooting with artillery, hauling before UA counter battery starts working. Unclear if it's Kherson area.

Embedded video
Follow on video:

https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1534991495476002839

I can see why IA likes the APU in Bofors

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 10 Jun 2022 04:53

This popped up on twitter today. Western deep state rag finally realizing the truth
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 96715.html

Ukrainian troops are suffering massive losses as they are outgunned 20 to one in artillery and 40 to one in ammunition by Russian forces, according to new intelligence painting a bleak picture of the conflict on the frontline.

For the first time since the war began, there is now concern over desertion. The report, seen by The Independent, says the worsening situation in the Donbas, with up to a hundred soldiers being killed a day, is having “a seriously demoralising effect on Ukrainian forces as well as a very real material effect; cases of desertion are growing every week”.

Reporting on the ground backs up claims of rising Ukrainian losses due to Russian firepower. The Independent last week witnessed losses being inflicted on the Ukrainian military and the lack of long-range firepower to fight back; one soldier interviewed in Lysychansk has since been killed and another three injured.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 10 Jun 2022 05:19

dnivas wrote:This popped up on twitter today. Western deep state rag finally realizing the truth
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 96715.html

Ukrainian troops are suffering massive losses as they are outgunned 20 to one in artillery and 40 to one in ammunition by Russian forces, according to new intelligence painting a bleak picture of the conflict on the frontline.

For the first time since the war began, there is now concern over desertion. The report, seen by The Independent, says the worsening situation in the Donbas, with up to a hundred soldiers being killed a day, is having “a seriously demoralising effect on Ukrainian forces as well as a very real material effect; cases of desertion are growing every week”.

Reporting on the ground backs up claims of rising Ukrainian losses due to Russian firepower. The Independent last week witnessed losses being inflicted on the Ukrainian military and the lack of long-range firepower to fight back; one soldier interviewed in Lysychansk has since been killed and another three injured.

Why do you call it a deep state rag?

If someone like Robert Fisk wrote for it for a long time and repeatedly called out the US folley in the middle east that can hardly be construed as support for the deep state.

However the issue is that the deep state itself will never concede. One would think that after all these follies and imence tally of death and destruction they would see some sense.

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 10 Jun 2022 05:54

this war shows that as long as you have artillery - you are king.

LR-PGMs to neutralize and artillery - domestic MIC is a must.

rest is all maya onlee

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 10 Jun 2022 06:30

V_Raman wrote:this war shows that as long as you have artillery - you are king.

LR-PGMs to neutralize and artillery - domestic MIC is a must.

rest is all maya onlee

it also shows that only arty has its limitations.
At the end of the day you need forces to seize the land and here is where the Russians are finding it hard going.

All this talk of one arm dominating over the other is nonsense. What this conflict has shown is that combined arms ops are king and the one team that can get all their various players on the state to talk to each other and perform in synchronicity while having a greater situational awareness is going to win.

Hari Nair · Post by **Hari Nair** » 10 Jun 2022 09:37

Here is a good update of the tactical situation on the ground, as on 09 Jun, by the Australian Royal USI (United Services Institute):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9NmBgT ... el=SkyNews

• The Royal USI analyst makes a valid point on deployment- the Ukr forces should have from a military point-of-view, withdrawn to the west across the river to Lysychansk (which is a somewhat better position and has the river as a barrier). The decision to stand and fight is a political decision and is not tenable, given Ukraine's loss rates and very asymmetric force levels vis-a-vis the Russians.

• The Royal USI analyst appears to think the few western rocket arty systems and ATGMs will help the Ukrainians prep and even pull off a counter-offensive. That's frankly unrealistic and is perhaps just a politically correct statement, meant not to rock the establishment.

• One of the stated objectives of the Russian ‘Special Military Operation’ is to demilitarise and de-Nazify Ukraine. The manner in which this phase of their campaign is being conducted ensures that the Ukrainian military is being fatally weakened, especially with Ukrainian political decisions taking preponderance over sound military tactics and sense.

• The fact is that Donbass region anyway will be lost. It is also looking increasingly clear that the Ukraine military will be weakened to such a point that possibility of re-grouping to a defence line to the west and then launching a counter-offensive against the Russians, is looking increasingly bleak.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 10 Jun 2022 10:02

US general surprised: “200,000 Ukrainian soldiers disappeared”

https://www.vikendi.net/2022/06/08/us-g ... sappeared/

US is paying monthly salaries for Ukr govt officials, public employees, armed forces, territorial defense units, neonazi militias included.

Looks like they are getting scammed big time out of that 43/50 billions of American tax payer money

Hari Nair · Post by **Hari Nair** » 10 Jun 2022 10:12

Cyrano wrote:US general surprised: “200,000 Ukrainian soldiers disappeared”

https://www.vikendi.net/2022/06/08/us-g ... sappeared/

US is paying monthly salaries for Ukr govt officials, public employees, armed forces, territorial defense units, neonazi militias included.

Looks like they are getting scammed big time out of that 43/50 billions of American tax payer money

You make a good point there! It definitely appears to be a repeat of their similar efforts in Afghanistan, with similar effects and consequences!

uddu · Post by **uddu** » 10 Jun 2022 11:00

As long as oil prices are high the war in Ukraine will keep going. Russians will not only take Odessa but also go ahead and create a larger Novorossiya.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 10 Jun 2022 11:31

Cyrano wrote:US general surprised: “200,000 Ukrainian soldiers disappeared”

https://www.vikendi.net/2022/06/08/us-g ... sappeared/

US is paying monthly salaries for Ukr govt officials, public employees, armed forces, territorial defense units, neonazi militias included.

Looks like they are getting scammed big time out of that 43/50 billions of American tax payer money

Cyranoji, this article looks like a creative writing piece. It would be good if some more established news source can verify this. I did a search and no other news outlet has anything.

sohamn · Post by **sohamn** » 10 Jun 2022 12:00

John wrote:
NRao wrote:https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1534991432582414359

Follow on video:

https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1534991495476002839
I can see why IA likes the APU in Bofors

This is extremely slow. If the enemy had artillery tracking radar in hand this unit would have been toast. This is why I think the kalyani truck mounted howitzer would be so handy.

sohamn · Post by **sohamn** » 10 Jun 2022 12:01

YashG wrote:
Cyrano wrote:US general surprised: “200,000 Ukrainian soldiers disappeared”

https://www.vikendi.net/2022/06/08/us-g ... sappeared/

US is paying monthly salaries for Ukr govt officials, public employees, armed forces, territorial defense units, neonazi militias included.

Looks like they are getting scammed big time out of that 43/50 billions of American tax payer money
Cyranoji, this article looks like a creative writing piece. It would be good if some more established news source can verify this. I did a search and no other news outlet has anything.

This article looks unscrupulous and fake.

ShivS · Post by **ShivS** » 10 Jun 2022 13:51

Hari Nair wrote:Here is a good update of the tactical situation on the ground, as on 09 Jun, by the Australian Royal USI (United Services Institute):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9NmBgT ... el=SkyNews

• The Royal USI analyst makes a valid point on deployment- the Ukr forces should have from a military point-of-view, withdrawn to the west across the river to Lysychansk (which is a somewhat better position and has the river as a barrier). The decision to stand and fight is a political decision and is not tenable, given Ukraine's loss rates and very asymmetric force levels vis-a-vis the Russians.

The ground dries out by the end of June. Any breakthrough can be exploited by armour and mechanised columns in the traditional sense. Next 60-75 days are very important for Ukraine. Fought valiantly but the sheer weight of the bear is now telling.

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 10 Jun 2022 15:05

ks_sachin wrote:
dnivas wrote:This popped up on twitter today. Western deep state rag finally realizing the truth
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 96715.html

Why do you call it a deep state rag?

If someone like Robert Fisk wrote for it for a long time and repeatedly called out the US folley in the middle east that can hardly be construed as support for the deep state.

However the issue is that the deep state itself will never concede. One would think that after all these follies and imence tally of death and destruction they would see some sense.

Guardian used to print assange and wiki stories but promptly turned on him when the screws were turned on. There is a huge scandal with Grayzone and Paul Mason who publishes quite a lot of stories on independent. Seems he was working with Bellingcat and the war ***** industry folks to completely legally destroy the actual anti war left.

Not sure why one or two anti war opinion writers can signify that Independent is not anti or ensconced within the UK intelligence services.

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 10 Jun 2022 15:06

Hari Nair wrote:
Cyrano wrote:US general surprised: “200,000 Ukrainian soldiers disappeared”

https://www.vikendi.net/2022/06/08/us-g ... sappeared/

US is paying monthly salaries for Ukr govt officials, public employees, armed forces, territorial defense units, neonazi militias included.

Looks like they are getting scammed big time out of that 43/50 billions of American tax payer money
You make a good point there! It definitely appears to be a repeat of their similar efforts in Afghanistan, with similar effects and consequences!

I have someone from Odessa living with me for a few days. His employer [s/w company] paid 4000 dollars to get him out of the draft/service in 2017.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 10 Jun 2022 19:05

Mission accomplished? The meaning of Russia’s claimed land bridge to Crimea

Significance of this is that Russia is preparing to take Odessa, now that they have a **solid** land supply tail.

John · Post by **John** » 10 Jun 2022 19:36

Supposedly a huge hit on Wagner base, Ukr are claiming over 200-300 dead. Russian sources have confirmed 30 bodies recovered so far, it claimed to be artillery strike but i think it is Tochka or Smerch strike. As eyewitness reportedly heard a huge boom followed by ammo explosion not multi explosions consistent with 15-20 shells hitting it.

Raises questions on inability S-300/400 which seemed to struggling to shoot them down.

https://twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status ... qFf6AdTTAg

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 10 Jun 2022 19:43

https://twitter.com/bbcworld/status/153 ... DxziDAUCCw
Zelensky admits 200 soldiers of Ukr army getting killed every day and this is from BBC. How long before his entire sena is gobbled? And what would be the ratio of injured/retired hurt?

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 10 Jun 2022 20:17

IndraD wrote:https://twitter.com/bbcworld/status/153 ... DxziDAUCCw
Zelensky admits 200 soldiers of Ukr army getting killed every day and this is from BBC. How long before his entire sena is gobbled? And what would be the ratio of injured/retired hurt?

Actually the link you refer to mentions the source as Zelenskiy’s aide and not Zelenskiy himself.

Zelenskiy had earlier stated that Ukraine had 50-100 killed per day in Donbas:
https://www.brusselstimes.com/227503/50 ... -president

In short, the aide doubled that number.

Wounded to killed ratio is an interesting question. The latest US rates were between 4:1 to 7:1 but I think that’s because US army afford a higher degree of protection to its soldiers (fewer die). Over time the rate of wounded to killed in battle generally has gone up because of better medical facilities/ triage: trauma management overall.

https://stats.areppim.com/stats/stats_a ... xwound.htm

I’d say that between 3:1 to 5:1 are the number being thrown about in this war. If you accept the first ratio, and believe that 150 UAF soldiers are dying per day, that’s a casualty rate of 600 dead and wounded per day. Or 18,000 in a month.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 10 Jun 2022 22:09

ShivS wrote:
The ground dries out by the end of June. Any breakthrough can be exploited by armour and mechanised columns in the traditional sense. Next 60-75 days are very important for Ukraine. Fought valiantly but the sheer weight of the bear is now telling.

The river levels in Russia/Ukraine start reducing from May. Currently the waters of the Seversky-Donetsk (which divides both armies in the North Donbass) are fordable in several areas. In any case, Russians crossed the river in 2 areas in the 2 days. One of the new bridgeheads will
threaten Slavyansk from the north, the other may be the northern pincer of the encirclement around Lisichansk.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 10 Jun 2022 22:23

Some general points on logistics, terrain & tactics from Russian media:

The mechanics of crossing a river are fairly well understood and discussed in detail. There is info on gradient of the river bank, water level etc. There are things armchair generals like me don't even think of.

Russians are looking to create cauldrons and not encirclements. A cauldron surrounds the enemy on 3 sides, giving them the option of retreating without heavy weapons (and being hit by artillery when they do so). It suits the Russians, because they don't have the men, or cover the distance
required for a complete encirclement.

Railway transport has been expended all the way to Crimea (from the East) and to Izyum (from the North). This will greatly ease their logistics.

There is a shortage of infantry for the Russians. Paratroopers are being used as light infantry. Given the large number of anti tank weapons Ukraine has, dismounted infantry are probably safer than being inside a APC.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 10 Jun 2022 22:59

John wrote:Supposedly a huge hit on Wagner base, Ukr are claiming over 200-300 dead. Russian sources have confirmed 30 bodies recovered so far, it claimed to be artillery strike but i think it is Tochka or Smerch strike. As eyewitness reportedly heard a huge boom followed by ammo explosion not multi explosions consistent with 15-20 shells hitting it.

Raises questions on inability S-300/400 which seemed to struggling to shoot them down.

https://twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status ... qFf6AdTTAg

This is definitely done on the basis of NATO or US intel. Ukrainians have benefited a ton due to precise intel from their friends. It seems satellite based intel is not something on which Russia has been sharp on but NATO/US have pretty good stuff on this kind of intel. US has been honing this capability for last 20 years in Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran etc.

Im quite sure it is this kind of intel flowing to Ukraine that helps them do some big ticket damage. The river crossing strike might have been a result of US cooperation.

John · Post by **John** » 10 Jun 2022 23:00

sohamn wrote:
John wrote: I can see why IA likes the APU in Bofors
This is extremely slow. If the enemy had artillery tracking radar in hand this unit would have been toast. This is why I think the kalyani truck mounted howitzer would be so handy.

Yea Caesar are supposedly doing very well in Ukraine and lot of learnings are supposedly being used to develop even newer version by French. Hope this helps Kalyani win some orders…