Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 10 Jun 2022 23:07

IndraD wrote:https://twitter.com/bbcworld/status/153 ... DxziDAUCCw
Zelensky admits 200 soldiers of Ukr army getting killed every day and this is from BBC. How long before his entire sena is gobbled? And what would be the ratio of injured/retired hurt?

take this figure with a pinch of salt - it is one of the ukrainian ploy to get more help/weapons faster. Donbas situation is weighing in against them and they r throwing the kitchen sink. They r trying every trick in the book. News sources also say Ukraine has run out thin on artillery shell supply in east. If that was the case, war would fold in 2 months.

But it seems ukrainians r hoping to scare the Americans into sending more help. A Russian victory will play very bad for democrats in mid term polls and they cant afford a ukrainian rout. Its that blackmail tactic.

Its in US interest to prolong this war at all costs and US can send loads (upto 5X) more help than what they have till now. Its the morale and men, not weapons that will decide the future. I'm no position to judge morale+men will last longer on which side. But rest assured Ukraine will not loose this was cz they ran outta artillery shell or artillery themselves.

John · Post by **John** » 11 Jun 2022 00:17

YashG wrote:
John wrote:Supposedly a huge hit on Wagner base, Ukr are claiming over 200-300 dead. Russian sources have confirmed 30 bodies recovered so far, it claimed to be artillery strike but i think it is Tochka or Smerch strike. As eyewitness reportedly heard a huge boom followed by ammo explosion not multi explosions consistent with 15-20 shells hitting it.

Raises questions on inability S-300/400 which seemed to struggling to shoot them down.

https://twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status ... qFf6AdTTAg
This is definitely done on the basis of NATO or US intel. Ukrainians have benefited a ton due to precise intel from their friends. It seems satellite based intel is not something on which Russia has been sharp on but NATO/US have pretty good stuff on this kind of intel. US has been honing this capability for last 20 years in Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran etc.

Im quite sure it is this kind of intel flowing to Ukraine that helps them do some big ticket damage. The river crossing strike might have been a result of US cooperation.

I can’t speak for Wagner base strike but River crossing is more complicated I doubt they needed any western Intel, Ukrainians where dug on other side (few vehicles) and knew of a crossing that was happening since it was key area. Russian forces after heavy battle where able to defeat the Ukrainian forces (you can see those vehicles in NYT photos) and instead of quickly moving all forces for some reason decided not to do anything for a day (Russian source confirm this).

By which time Ukrainian where able to gather artillery and drones and started attacking the forces that where crossing.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 11 Jun 2022 02:58

https://twitter.com/GonzaloLira1968/sta ... 0418410498

Major shelling going on right now, sirens are blaring. Its coming from the northeast of Kharkov center, but I cannot say at what range.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 11 Jun 2022 03:43

June 10, 2022 :: We’re almost out of ammunition and relying on western arms, says Ukraine

Avarachan · Post by **Avarachan** » 11 Jun 2022 04:03

https://ria.ru/20220609/su-57-1794141220.html
June 9, 2022
RIA Novosti (in Russian)

During a special operation in Ukraine, the Russian military deployed a flight of four Su-57 fighters linked into a single information network in order to destroy air defense facilities, an informed source told RIA Novosti.
The interlocutor of the agency pointed out that "combining the aircraft in a single information space increases the efficiency of identifying and hitting targets," while specifying that during the deployment of the Su-57 , it was possible to confirm its low radar visibility.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 11 Jun 2022 12:41

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 11 Jun 2022 13:16

From Telegram channel https://t.me/rybar/33781

After some digging in Ukrainian documents about 155mm CAESAR self-propelled artillery mounts, we found something extremely interesting: the used 155mm OGR F1.

The OGR F1 is a 155 mm cluster munition. The concept of this type of weapon involves breaking the main warhead in the air with the release of dozens of smaller submunitions capable of covering a wide area. In the case of OGR, the bomb breaks into 63 small elements.

Due to the extremely high likelihood of harming civilians, cluster shells were banned as a result of the UN convention in Oslo, developed and approved by 46 states, including France, in 2010.

The National Commission for the Destruction of Anti-Personnel Mines (CNEMA), operating under the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, successfully reported in 2016 the elimination of all M26 and OGR F1 ammunition.

Thanks to the leaky information security system in Ukraine, it is perfectly clear that the French not only did not destroy the prohibited type of weapons, but also handed it over to Ukrainian servicemen. And those, in turn, "successfully" use them against the civilian population of Donbass.

Well, the icing on the cake: the Armed Forces of Ukraine uses versions of shells with a remote fuse designed to increase the area of destruction of manpower. That is, the Ukrainian armed formations deliberately seek to kill as many civilians in the city as possible.

The document itself is available here (can't post embedded here, please follow T link above)

#Donetsk #Ukraine #France
@rybar

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 Jun 2022 07:50

Ukraine’s high casualty rate could bring war to tipping point

No idea what is going through their minds. They know the numbers and yet they behave they do not. Strange.

Any way you count it, the figures are stark: Ukrainian casualties are running at a rate of somewhere between 6oo and 1,000 a day. One presidential adviser, Oleksiy Arestovych, told the Guardian this week it was 150 killed and 800 wounded daily; another, Mykhaylo Podolyak, told the BBC that 100 to 200 Ukrainian troops a day were being killed.

So pressing is the situation that foreigners with combat experience who pass the tests to join the international legion could be on the frontline in less than a month after crossing the Ukrainian border. But again, the high level of casualties now being openly discussed may act as a deterrent to recruits in the future.

Western officials prefer not to discuss the impact of the war on the defenders, instead highlighting the problems for the Russians in their briefings. This week, one of those officials said their estimate was that the invaders had lost “15,000 to 20,000 dead”, out of an invasion force that was 150,000 or more. Yet despite this, Moscow’s army has still not lost its offensive capability.

But they chose not to provide similar estimates for Ukraine, which can create a lopsided impression that the Russians are faring worse. In fact, with an artillery overmatch of 10 or 15 to one, according to the Ukrainians, it may well be that the invaders’ casualty rate is far lower at the moment, because they are able to deal death from a greater distance to defenders who cannot see them.

Ammunition is certainly running short on the Ukrainian side, again by their own admission. Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, has said Ukraine is using 5,000 to 6,000 artillery rounds a day, and has “almost used up” its stockpile of Soviet 152mm standard shells. It is now relying on Nato-standard 155mm howitzers; it is unclear how many of these it has.

Commanders have told the Guardian that Ukraine struggles for some basic equipment such as encrypted radios (where mobile phones work, it is not uncommon to rely on the secure Signal app instead) or advanced sights and optics of the types commonly used by western militaries.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 12 Jun 2022 08:01

Who could've seen that coming

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 12 Jun 2022 12:27

Ukranian Govt has issued orders to conscript women between 18 and 60. Euro feminists will be overjoyed now?!

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 12 Jun 2022 13:54

Some further insight into combat tactics - Russian source

https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/38138

Translation below (machine, so some of the translation may not seem to make sense):

The war on the northern face of the Donbass arc is a mutual exchange of artillery strikes, air raids, large-scale mining of everything that can and cannot be mined, and short rifle battles at a dagger distance.

Shooting battles take place mainly in dense forests, where often nothing is visible already at 50 meters. Automatic and machine-gun bursts fly out of the green, the voices of the enemy are clearly audible. The strongholds of the enemy in the forests, with a particularly successful set of circumstances, are shot point-blank by a tank with direct fire. In case of failure, the combat vehicle is blown up by mines or receives several hits by ATGMs.

It is impossible to carry out any maneuver war on pickup trucks like the Syrian one on this theater of operations. Pickups will be found on forest roads (you can’t drive into the field, all fields are strewn with mines) and enemy artillery and mortars will immediately be aimed at them, ATGMs will work out, dense machine-gun fire will finish off the survivors.

The most successful combination is MRAP (Typhoon in various modifications), an armored personnel carrier, a tank. Armor will cover from cassettes and mortars, "thirty" and a tank gun will quickly suppress or destroy the enemy's firing point.

Supporters of dashing attacks on unarmored UAZs will be brought in parts after the first attack. As those who went to the front line in an unarmored car (including yours truly) say: “after the shelling, I identified myself with a brown rocket.” It is quite possible to designate a brown rocket even while in armor, to say nothing about armored cardboard.

John · Post by **John** » 12 Jun 2022 14:50

Cyrano wrote:Ukranian Govt has issued orders to conscript women between 18 and 60. Euro feminists will be overjoyed now?!

Please don’t post obvious fake news as news. Even worse not even listing the source of such news.

Large explosions reported in port city of Berdyansk

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... ASDMqgzzyw

Looks like Ukrainian ship Yuri managed to avoid being hit by Russia MLRS, earlier I believe I noted ship was captured by Russians but looks like it was incorrect or somehow stolen back by Ukrainian. Interesting how Russia hasn’t tried to hit with Ashm

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... rettyPhoto

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 12 Jun 2022 17:27

Its not fake news, documents from Ukr govt issuing those orders are floating on SM. Just because western MSM doesnt relay something or anything that puts Kiev regime in unfavourable light, doesnt make it fake news.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 12 Jun 2022 17:57

Here is the source:
https://t.me/loordofwar/20889
You can see the actual order issued by Kiev regime.
>>>
In Ukraine, the mobilization of women is being prepared for the purpose of "uninterrupted replenishment of the losses of personnel" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. First of all, until June 15, the mobilization of women who are already liable for military service will start, and until June 31 Ukrainian women from 18 to 60 will be registered for military service.

The order concerns the Dnepropetrovsk, Kyiv, Kirovograd, Nikolaev, Odessa, Kharkov, parts of the Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions.#UkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine
<<<
So John, why was this "obvious fake news" for you?

John · Post by **John** » 12 Jun 2022 19:03

Because if such a news exist I am pretty sure a Russian account won’t be the only one posting on it. Even most Russian sources haven’t picked up on it since it is over a day since that was posted shows they themselves know a fake one when they see it.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 12 Jun 2022 19:17

John wrote: Looks like Ukrainian ship Yuri managed to avoid being hit by Russia MLRS, earlier I believe I noted ship was captured by Russians but looks like it was incorrect or somehow stolen back by Ukrainian. Interesting how Russia hasn’t tried to hit with Ashm

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... rettyPhoto

There were 2 Ukrainian warships in the Navy port outside Mykolayiv. The more important one was the Corvette Vinnitsa, which was hit by artillery
fire and appears (drone pic) to have flipped over at its anchorage. `Yuri' was undamaged but has not moved. The spit at the Eastern entrance of the port is in Russian hands, so nothing can get in or out of Mykolayiv port anyway.

John · Post by **John** » 12 Jun 2022 19:33

Important for historical purpose? Vinnitsa was decommissioned last year and they were turning it into a museum.

https://en.thepage.ua/news/the-first-mu ... kraine/amp

Interesting that Yuri is moving around in SAT images may be it’s being sneaked out to move supplies in night time?, I can’t see them just moving it around the port if Russians have effectively blockaded?

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 12 Jun 2022 19:35

Cyrano wrote:Here is the source:
In Ukraine, the mobilization of women is being prepared for the purpose of "uninterrupted replenishment of the losses of personnel" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. First of all, until June 15, the mobilization of women who are already liable for military service will start, and until June 31 Ukrainian women from 18 to 60 will be registered for military service.

The order concerns the Dnepropetrovsk, Kyiv, Kirovograd, Nikolaev, Odessa, Kharkov, parts of the Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions.#UkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine

This is partly correct. Even before the war, about 15% of the Ukrainian armed forces comprised women, so its not unusual to ask women to serve.
Around Oct 21, in response the Russian build up, Ukraine asked all women from 18 to 60, in certain professions, to REGISTER for possible military
service. That's not the same as actually being sent to the front. The idea is that you can be contacted by the authorities when required.
The response to this was lukewarm - as it is in Russia. My understanding is that Kiev has now ordered all women to register immediately, thus completing the process that began last year.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 12 Jun 2022 19:36

John wrote:Important for historical purpose? Vinnitsa was decommissioned last year and they were turning it into a museum.

https://en.thepage.ua/news/the-first-mu ... kraine/amp

True. Neither ship has any combat value. Vinnitsa at least looks like an active warship, so as far the Russian public are concerned, a Ukrainian
warship was sunk.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 12 Jun 2022 19:39

John wrote:Because if such a news exist I am pretty sure a Russian account won’t be the only one posting on it. Even most Russian sources haven’t picked up on it since it is over a day since that was posted shows they themselves know a fake one when they see it.

Thats a very specious argument - I'll leave it at that

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 12 Jun 2022 20:43

Excellent (IMHO) article on the Russian army org. Goes all the way from the Combined Arms Army to Squad level, with the BTG in between.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/not-b ... ce-design/

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 Jun 2022 21:39

Baikul wrote:Excellent (IMHO) article on the Russian army org. Goes all the way from the Combined Arms Army to Squad level, with the BTG in between.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/not-b ... ce-design/

Written by MICHAEL KOFMAN. That should say it all.

But, the title is a give away: "NOT BUILT FOR PURPOSE: THE RUSSIAN MILITARY’S ILL-FATED FORCE DESIGN" (Question is "says who?")

A far better resource would be Milano Vego of the US Naval War College.

Better still is The Russian Way of War by Lester Grau and Charles Bartles (Foreign Military Studies Office)(2016) (416 pages PDF, which I bet Kofman never read - challenge him on Twitter).

Look, the Russians - in general - and specifically in military matters are way different. So, yes, it is very easy, no extremely easy, to fool an western oriented audience. But, I can assure you that the American military has a very, very healthy respect for the Russians (granted they have already pivoted towards China). I very much doubt that NATO is looking to against the Russians. No way (IMO).

Will read that Kofman article some time, but the title by itself is **extremely** irresponsible. After all Russia has done pretty well in Syria (military wise) and are doing even better against (what was?) a NATO standard military, with an extremely well prepared defensive plan in Ukraine (granted they did not have all the tools they needed - but that is a diff story and cannot be used as an excuse at this point - point being actually NATO got beat in Ukraine)

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 12 Jun 2022 22:11

Numerous videos of captured AFU positions west of Donbas show not just extensive zigzags of trenchers, but also lots of sophisticated underground concrete reinforced structures that are couple of 100sq m in area with storage, recreation, sleeping, comms zones etc , with multiple entries and exits with long tunnels. And many other dug out positions of varying levels of complexity in between. The vegetation has grown around and over densely offering excellent camo

There is no way they got built in recent months, not even past year or two.

Its clear that they have prepared very seriously for an actual war with Russia and we're fully expecting to get attacked. They also knew Russia will rain artillery, hence this level of preparation.

I'm inclined to believe all this started in Porochenko's time, went into high gear with elensly since 2017. We haven't seen this level of preparation all along the northern borders or in the south in Kherson or Zaphoriziye or Mariupol.

The question therefore is why so much preparation? Why specifically in front of Donbas and not much elsewhere? The separatists Kiev was fighting for years could never amass the massive arty fire and go on attack beyond DPR/DRL territory where the AFU were preparing for.

So whatever JoBi says or elensly regime says about unprovoked Russian aggression or not believing Russia with invade is all BS. Perhaps Russia acted before their trigger event and in a way that surprised them with multiple thrusts.

Most of what is reported in western MSM or by their 'analysts' is carefully orchestrated smoke screens. IMO onree.

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 12 Jun 2022 22:27

Cyranoji,

From a previous post of mine,

From The OSCE, in 14 months to mid Oct 2021

Daily Report 160/2021
12 July 2021

"Following agreement reached at the meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) on 22 July
2020 regarding Measures to strengthen the ceasefire, from 00:01 on 27 July 2020 until the end
of the reporting period, the SMM has recorded at least 64,923 ceasefire violations in both
Donetsk and Luhansk regions (including 18,060 explosions, 13,091 projectiles in flight,
288 muzzle flashes, 263 illumination flares and at least 33,221 bursts and shots)."

https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/os ... -july-2021

The Bear pre-empted them, thus the screams!

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 12 Jun 2022 22:55

Yup!

I haven't come across much analysis or comparative study on Russian 'A' and 'V' forces we saw invading Kiev and the north, 'Z' in the south, especially Mariupol and a later addition the 'O' group which appeared to have more infantry and special forces.

Even the Kofman article above doesn't delve into it so he may be just theorising than analysing based on what happened on the ground in this SMO. Also the fact that RA is able to rest and rotate soldiers regularly - plenty of evidence of this, videos of war deployed returning to heroes' welcome by cheering crowds in many Russian cities are increasingly posted on SM

By the way the 4 letters together make AZOV - intentional or not I don't know!

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 12 Jun 2022 23:09

Lisa wrote:Cyranoji,

From a previous post of mine,

From The OSCE, in 14 months to mid Oct 2021

Daily Report 160/2021
12 July 2021

"Following agreement reached at the meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) on 22 July
2020 regarding Measures to strengthen the ceasefire, from 00:01 on 27 July 2020 until the end
of the reporting period, the SMM has recorded at least 64,923 ceasefire violations in both

I don't remember the exact figures, but what is relevant is that in the 6 months before the war, ceasefire violations had increased 10 fold.
80% of casualties were on the LPR/DPR (Russian) side. Its like 10,000 people being killed on our side of the LOC, in cross border firing.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 12 Jun 2022 23:28

Cyrano wrote:Yup!

I haven't come across much analysis or comparative study on Russian 'A' and 'V' forces we saw invading Kiev and the north, 'Z' in the south, especially Mariupol and a later addition the 'O' group which appeared to have more infantry and special forces.

By the way the 4 letters together make AZOV - intentional or not I don't know!

Cyrano ji, As far as I know, there isn't a `A' sign. There's Z (Southern Military district forces), V (Western Military district) and O (Central MD).
Interestingly Z and V are not alphabets in the Cyrillic script.

The Southern Military district has deployed almost all its formations. They operate in Kherson, Zaparozhye and Donetsk districts.
The WMD has Luhansk and Kharkov. About 2/3 of its formations have been deployed, or rotated.
CMD has 1 of its 2 divisions in the Kharkov/Sumy region.

None of the skeleton divisions (which are formed up when there is general mobilization - with former conscripts and weapons in storage),
of any of these Military districts have been deployed.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 12 Jun 2022 23:54

Cyrano wrote:Numerous videos of captured AFU positions west of Donbas show not just extensive zigzags of trenchers, but also lots of sophisticated underground concrete reinforced structures that are couple of 100sq m in area with storage, recreation, sleeping, comms zones etc , with multiple entries and exits with long tunnels. And many other dug out positions of varying levels of complexity in between. The vegetation has grown around and over densely offering excellent camo

Yes. The fortifications are shown regularly on TV. In the North Donbass, the defenses are along the Severo-Donetsk river, which is an additional barrier.
Along the north south line, various towns have been converted into fortified zones.
What was also not known until the war started was that the Ukrainian defenders actually outnumbered the Russians. In the last 7 years, 700,000
Ukrainian soldiers have served on that defense line (conscripts & regulars).
There are 3 parallel defensive lines, so breaking one line does not give a breakthrough. Even if the defenses are broken, the sheer density of AGTM's and MANPADS, makes rapid exploitation by tanks, supported by helicopters, impossible.

A frontal assault into that defense line would have been a costly failure. Possibly the Ukrainians were hoping that after an early failure, NATO would intervene, sanctions would cause a collapse of the Russian economy and it would be game over for Putin.

John · Post by **John** » 13 Jun 2022 01:56

^ As per latest interview with Biden, Ukraine or Europe didn’t not believe in US warning of attack on Kyiv and from south and where expecting a eastern attack from Russians mainly coming from separatists with Russian air support. So expectation was the line can hold out and with western artillery they can push back separatists and Russian mercs.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 13 Jun 2022 11:33

NRao wrote:
Baikul wrote:Excellent (IMHO) article on the Russian army org. Goes all the way from the Combined Arms Army to Squad level, with the BTG in between.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/not-b ... ce-design/
Written by MICHAEL KOFMAN. That should say it all.

But, the title is a give away: "NOT BUILT FOR PURPOSE: THE RUSSIAN MILITARY’S ILL-FATED FORCE DESIGN" (Question is "says who?")
…..

Will read that Kofman article some time, but the title by itself is **extremely** irresponsible. After all Russia has done pretty well in Syria (military wise) and are doing even better against (what was?) a NATO standard military, with an extremely well prepared defensive plan in Ukraine (granted they did not have all the tools they needed - but that is a diff story and cannot be used as an excuse at this point - point being actually NATO got beat in Ukraine)

Do read it if/ when you get time. The title may be over the top but the analysis is pretty good and IMO not biased.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 13 Jun 2022 13:47

It’s is a good article. Factual and corroborated by some of the observations from Deans as well.
Just because the Russians are prevailing does not mean that their org structure and fighting ability is all hunky dory.
There is good material thrrr also think about our IBGs

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 13 Jun 2022 15:54

Koffman article sounds plausible to uninformed layman like me, there is no guarantee all his assumptions and extrapolations are based on observed reality in this war.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 13 Jun 2022 17:03

It looks like Severodonetsk is done, and Slovyansk and Lysychansk are being attacked. Essentially, everything north and east of the Siversky-Donets river is being taken over, and there will be a lot of free troops once Severodonetsk is taken, and also, the entire railroad in the region becomes freed up, making it easier to transport troops and supplies. Some 20 BTGs are in the Severodonetsk region, according to a video I watched over the weekend. Where do you think the Russians will move their free troops? Towards Popasna, Bakhmut and Lysychansk? Towards Kharkov to try and push towards the city? Towards Slovyansk-Kramatorsk from the Izyum direction in the N-NW, to bring the battle in Donetsk to an end quickly? Towards Zaporozhie, to crush the southern front? Towards Nikolayev, to push towards Odessa? Some combination of the above? Any ideas?

kit · Post by **kit** » 13 Jun 2022 17:23

ks_sachin wrote:It’s is a good article. Factual and corroborated by some of the observations from Deans as well.
Just because the Russians are prevailing does not mean that their org structure and fighting ability is all hunky dory.
There is good material thrrr also think about our IBGs

War is where all carefully laid up plans go south. An army that can quickly adapt endure and prevail is the one than wins. When did the Americans last fight a near peer enemy?

John · Post by **John** » 13 Jun 2022 18:14

kit wrote:
ks_sachin wrote:It’s is a good article. Factual and corroborated by some of the observations from Deans as well.
Just because the Russians are prevailing does not mean that their org structure and fighting ability is all hunky dory.
There is good material thrrr also think about our IBGs

War is where all carefully laid up plans go south. An army that can quickly adapt endure and prevail is the one than wins. When did the Americans last fight a near peer enemy?

Iraq in 1990 was far more formidable than Ukraine military (which is not even top 30s) it had one of large ground army iirc it was right behind us as 4th largest, has one of largest ballistic missile arsenals and decade of experience of fighting Iran . Our own analysts pre invasion talked about heavy casualties on both sides similar to Yom Kippur.

But after the battle unfolded It’s poor performance was written off as Iraqis not knowing how to use T-72, SAM or AC instead of superior equipment, planning and execution by coalition. People forget Iraqi army successfully invaded Kuwait (which had heavy defenses and many predicted would take at-least a month to fall) and also invaded parts of Saudi Arabia before being expelled by US forces.

Back to this If you looked at my analysis at the start of war I predicted Kyiv to be surrounded after couple weeks and I even predicted Russia can roll over east if they fully concentrated on it like they are doing now in end of April. Why? Because We never seen in modern times a country (Russia) outmatching a opponent by this much on equipment and aircrafts (UAF barely even has operation squadron pre war, no real navy and no long range strike capability ) having hard time in non insurgency conflict.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 13 Jun 2022 19:40

ks_sachin wrote:It’s is a good article. Factual and corroborated by some of the observations from Deans as well.
Just because the Russians are prevailing does not mean that their org structure and fighting ability is all hunky dory.
There is good material thrrr also think about our IBGs

The article talks of systemic problems in the Russian army which are fairly well known to analysts (i.e. lack of good NCO's & balancing- large size
vs. not having too many conscripts).
Every army is designed based on previous experience and for the battle they are most likely to fight. The Russian structure did reasonably well in Georgia, Crimea and the Donbass in 2014-5. On the other hand the structure of a US Infantry division was probably inadequate in Afghanistan - where the main complaint was `not enough infantry'.

In the Ukraine, in engagements which were infantry centric ( house to house in Mariupol, fighting in the forests, hand to hand fighting to take trenches), the Russian infantry appears to have prevailed over Ukrainian infantry who were numerically equal and in defensive positions.

One point of interest - Russian infantry is trained to fight in pine forests (Russia is full of it). That's similar to what we get in the hills along the
LOC. Visibility is typically 30 meters (less if there is fog).

John · Post by **John** » 13 Jun 2022 19:49

Deans wrote:
ks_sachin wrote:It’s is a good article. Factual and corroborated by some of the observations from Deans as well.
Just because the Russians are prevailing does not mean that their org structure and fighting ability is all hunky dory.
There is good material thrrr also think about our IBGs
The article talks of systemic problems in the Russian army which are fairly well known to analysts (i.e. lack of good NCO's & balancing- large size
vs. not having too many conscripts).
Every army is designed based on previous experience and for the battle they are most likely to fight. The Russian structure did reasonably well in Georgia, Crimea and the Donbass in 2014-5. On the other hand the structure of a US Infantry division was probably inadequate in Afghanistan - where the main complaint was `not enough infantry'.

In the Ukraine, in engagements which were infantry centric ( house to house in Mariupol, fighting in the forests, hand to hand fighting to take trenches), the Russian infantry appears to have prevailed over Ukrainian infantry who were numerically equal and in defensive positions.

One point of interest - Russian infantry is trained to fight in pine forests (Russia is full of it). That's similar to what we get in the hills along the
LOC. Visibility is typically 30 meters (less if there is fog).

I know Brar isn’t here but I wouldn’t say US infantry division wasn’t inadequate in Afghanistan, US casualties had declined a lot in last years of conflict ( less than 100 last 5 years). It is just Afghanistan was no longer a priority for US and Afghans in general have very high resentment for authority and tribal nature (see Pakistan tribal areas) which would require a consistent presence which is topic for another day.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 13 Jun 2022 20:25

Interview on performance of the Russian T-80BVM on combat. Russian source. Translation.

Interestingly the tanker says they were aware of the now famous problem of the tanks blowing up spectacularly when hit by ATGM fire under the cupola.

https://telegra.ph/A-bit-about-the-T-80BVM-06-13

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 13 Jun 2022 20:39

Baikul wrote:Interview on performance of the Russian T-80BVM on combat. Russian source. Translation.

Interestingly the tanker says they were aware of the now famous problem of the tanks blowing up spectacularly when hit by ATGM fire under the cupola.

https://telegra.ph/A-bit-about-the-T-80BVM-06-13

This was identified during the first Chechen war. So not really surprising. What is surprising is the inability to fix it over the last 27 years.

Aldonkar · Post by **Aldonkar** » 13 Jun 2022 20:39

John wrote:
kit wrote:

War is where all carefully laid up plans go south. An army that can quickly adapt endure and prevail is the one than wins. When did the Americans last fight a near peer enemy?
Iraq in 1990 was far more formidable than Ukraine military (which is not even top 30s) it had one of large ground army iirc it was right behind us as 4th largest, has one of largest ballistic missile arsenals and decade of experience of fighting Iran . Our own analysts pre invasion talked about heavy casualties on both sides similar to Yom Kippur.

But after the battle unfolded It’s poor performance was written off as Iraqis not knowing how to use T-72, SAM or AC instead of superior equipment, planning and execution by coalition. People forget Iraqi army successfully invaded Kuwait (which had heavy defenses and many predicted would take at-least a month to fall) and also invaded parts of Saudi Arabia before being expelled by US forces.
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John,

A comment on the poor performance of Kuwaiti and Saudi forces. I believe their poor performance is due to the fact that their commanders are not selected on merit but by nepotism. If you are related to the ruling family you are given a commission in the Armed Forces. An able commoner does not have a chance.

Thus the Kuwaiti Army was virtually invisible against Saddam's forces. Likewise, the Saudi forces, both in the Gulf war 1 and against the Houtis in Yemen has not exactly covered themselves in glory. Remember in Gulf War 1 the overall Commander (supposedly) was a Saudi Prince Khalid bin Sultan but in reality was Norman Scwarzkopf.

IA colleague at work, who was ex Army, recounted a course he attended at Sandhurst where there was a Saudi Army candidate. He was so hopeless he failed all the physical exercise tests. He was a Saudi Prince.