2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

[SRajesh]

Ramanji
Civil Rights law or no law : Black lives matter still happens
Every time Khan makes a comment on India about Secularism/Freedom of Religion yada yada Black lives matter should be held up to them
We now have a EAM who can give it back as good as he gets
The days of Stupid grins a la SM Krishna type is over and that message should be loud and clear to Khan and Lizard

[Cyrano]

Friday is being enshrined as riot & voilence day across India.

Trains burned and destruction at Secunderabad Railway station in Hyderabad, reportedly by NSUI members. Reports of street violence from other parts of India protesting against Agnipath scheme!

This is what happens when you let snakes proliferate.

[IndraD]

railways as target of protest indicates instructions to torch central govt property and not damage the state's. Which in turn means this is a well oiled pattharbaaz battalion ready to hit the streets organised by opposition.

[IndraD]

https://twitter.com/dmalok/status/15377 ... QUH0SfAhvg सासाराम में उपद्रवियों ने जवान को ही गोली मार दी। हमें कट्टे वाले #Agniveers नहीं चाहिए

Army aspirants protesting against the Centre's #AgnipathScheme blocked railway tracks and lit tyres on fire at the Dumraon railway station in Bihar's #Buxar. https://twitter.com/ndtv/status/1537622 ... QUH0SfAhvg

https://twitter.com/ndtv/status/1537649 ... QUH0SfAhvg Bihar Sampark Kranti Express set on fire in Bihar's Samastipur as protests over Centre's #AgnipathScheme enters third consecutive day.

Mohiuddinagar, Bihar Amarnath Express vandalised at Railway station https://twitter.com/shashank_ssj/status ... QUH0SfAhvg

https://twitter.com/azad_nishant/status ... QUH0SfAhvg Violent mob attacked a school bus carrying children in Darbhanga.

A mob vandalised a train this morning at the Ballia railway station in #UttarPradesh in protest against the Centre's #AgnipathScheme; police had to later use force to disperse them https://twitter.com/ndtv/status/1537608 ... QUH0SfAhvg THREAD

[chetak]

Recover the full cost of conducting the bypoll from the party which caused the bypoll when seat is vacated

@PTI_News · 26m
Election Commission pushes for amending law to bar people from contesting from more than one seat, says if it cannot be done, then hefty fine should be imposed on those vacating one of the constituencies and forcing bypoll

[suryag]

Look at each of these mobs around 100 each, may be 150, Bihar seems to be the case of Police standing by and not taking action. Telangana same story. These mobs disperse in Mathura once the lathicharge starts. All blame on Bihar state apparatus.

[chetak]

Look at each of these mobs around 100 each, may be 150, Bihar seems to be the case of Police standing by and not taking action. Telangana same story. These mobs disperse in Mathura once the lathicharge starts. All blame on Bihar state apparatus.

nitishwa has to prove his credentials and is laying the groundwork for another lateral shift. His idea, as always is to do the maximum damage to Modi and the BJP

TRS is trying to woo back supporters who have moved to the BJP

[KLNMurthy]

KLNM
Johnson also passed the Civil Rights laws as he needed to get upper hand on FSU wrt human rights. Without Civil Rights US could hardly censure FSU.
Take that factor into consideration please.

True US was under relentless moral attack from FSU on civil rights. And passing civil rights act was a must in that sense.

I was referring to Johnson’s problem of getting the Act passed by Congress, most of whose members were open racists, or basic racists, or politically afraid of racists.Taken together, there wasn’t enough strength in Congress to pass civil rights law, which was clearly in the national security interests in the Cold War.

LBJ had an amazing political ability & power to twist the arms of members of Congress, but on this matter he felt his strength was not enough against the systemic constraints he faced. His idea was to get public opinion massively on the side of civil rights so that at least the less-hardcore members of Congress would not be afraid to vote in favor of civil rights.

My point was that the top leader doesn’t have absolute power in a democratic (any) system to do the right thing. Mass public opinion can strengthen his hand and make it possible for him to lead in the right direction.

To bring it back to the point, I am having a hard time excusing Modi’s recent bad political performance, but I also recognize that he is operating under severe political and institutional constraints.

[Cyrano]

Past half way into the second term as PM, it becomes less and less joyful to see him driving the country with a learner's license.

[IndraD]

Nitish BJP fault line behind violent protest in Bihar against Agnipath https://indianexpress.com/article/polit ... h-7975593/

[KLNMurthy]

Rumours about Train torching not allowed to be captured on video by rioters in Bihar!!
Paid actors or Shanthidhoots??? indulging in these riots as they dont want to draw attention on NS and backlash against Is
Also was it not one the opposition party commented on : People join Army to die.
Now the same idiots want Army jobs!!

On the surface, what is happening is ridiculous and dangerous, and no doubt BIF has a hand in it.

But I am concerned that there is a real core problem that the BIF is taking advantage of.

There are a lot of aspiring youths who are not very qualified for tech jobs etc., who have set their sights on a the army as a respectable and dignified career. I have met young men who have been working out for years to meet the fitness standards etc., while driving cabs or autos in the meantime.

I get the importance of finding a creative solution to the pension problem, while also moving the army to a more all-India profile, and raising the skill level & employability of youth. All that makes perfect sense to a babu or senior white collar planning & administration type. But maybe it is too abstract for a young auto driver who knows that school didn’t give him the qualifications & training for a career and was counting on at least a chance to try for a lifetime career of honor and reasonable economic standing. Now that chance has been cut by 75%.

It occurs to me that we should actually adapt from the Muslim playbook in solving the problem of channeling youth energy. Instead of shrinking the army size, grow it instead, training young people for a soft takeover of Africa, beating back the sterile Chinese civilization or the hollow western civilization. Our civilization is more in harmony with Africa’s native culture anyway.

I can see us paying for a million-strong Bharata Nagarik Force which will rid Africa of Boko Haram, al Shabab etc. The payoff being massive settlement of our youths in Africa, building up its economy under the leadership of our more elite & skilled classes. In a couple of generations we could see a more Indic Africa which would be an organic evolutionary outgrowth of Africa’s own native (and suppressed) cultural profile.

This may be a nonsense pie-in-the-sky idea, but it’s a big idea. Our Hindutva leaders are mostly thinking at an incremental level, which is mostly fine, but sometimes it’s not enough.

[KLNMurthy]

Past half way into the second term as PM, it becomes less and less joyful to see him driving the country with a learner's license.

I fear I feel very much the same way. Is he not getting the IB inputs on the country etc. or are the inputs being sabotaged, I wonder?

[Zynda]

Its amazing how well oiled protests/violence apparatus has been setup by BIF. It can call & organise protests in a matter of couple of days and bring nation to a halt. Serious questions needs to be raised and introspected...one would have assumed that Home Ministry, IB etc., would have identified key states where trouble may crop up and honestly, it is surprising that no preemptive action was taken to ensure L&O continuity...GoI knows that state machinery of these trouble makers won't be of any help...why not deploy RAF or other companies of Central Forces? Wonder what Home Minster/Ministry is doing!

[KLNMurthy]

Its amazing how well oiled protests/violence apparatus has been setup by BIF. It can call & organise protests in a matter of couple of days and bring nation to a halt. Serious questions needs to be raised and introspected...one would have assumed that Home Ministry, IB etc., would have identified key states where trouble may crop up and honestly, it is surprising that no preemptive action was taken to ensure L&O continuity...GoI knows that state machinery of these trouble makers won't be of any help...why not deploy RAF or other companies of Central Forces? Wonder what Home Minster/Ministry is doing!

What is also amazing is how much this government is caught unprepared every time this happens.

[SRajesh]

Now the same idiots want Army jobs!!

Bharata Nagarik Force .

This may be a nonsense pie-in-the-sky idea, but it’s a big idea. .

Murthyji
What you are suggesting is like the French Foreign Legion or the British Gurkha Battalion but all Desi males (and females)
All I worried about is that it will be labelled as expenditionay force with hegemonic ideas
Already our neighbors are making this allegation
Plus where is logistics base for support and supplies
Who’s going to bear the expenses
Correct me if I am wrong don’t we already shoulder UN peace keeping activities
Imagine the ‘Flaming Hole’ time of the Britshits EU Ameriki and Chinese
We can kiss goodbye to TOT of any type for our MIC

[SRajesh]

One way is can we ask UN for a contract to raise Peace Keeping Force say a 25 /30 yrs contract
The recruits to do a tour of duty 2years cycle
Honourable Discharge after two foreign tours and a total time 6 yrs
At least we will have the umbrella of UN badge
What do you think
Equally pie-in-the-sky moment

[Kaivalya]

Its amazing how well oiled protests/violence apparatus has been setup by BIF. It can call & organise protests in a matter of couple of days and bring nation to a halt. Serious questions needs to be raised and introspected...one would have assumed that Home Ministry, IB etc., would have identified key states where trouble may crop up and honestly, it is surprising that no preemptive action was taken to ensure L&O continuity...GoI knows that state machinery of these trouble makers won't be of any help...why not deploy RAF or other companies of Central Forces? Wonder what Home Minster/Ministry is doing!

What is also amazing is how much this government is caught unprepared every time this happens.

To be fair, this time it started from bihar where there is a political axe to grind. It seems like a BIF wackemall game. I think there are so many holes in the ground it is hard to walk a few steps forward. There are people waiting to burn buses and trains - we just need some execuse/legislation.

Maybe this a real threat :

They [BJP] are trying hard for it. If they achieve their goal, it will lead to unrest,”

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 068620.cms

[ritesh]

Past half way into the second term as PM, it becomes less and less joyful to see him driving the country with a learner's license.

I fear I feel very much the same way. Is he not getting the IB inputs on the country etc. or are the inputs being sabotaged, I wonder?

Modi and his team needs to take the blame for the same. Absolute zero discussion across the board, zero communication through daily press meetings, and incompetent firefighting abilities. Dare I say, can't see him back in 2024. People across the board are yearning for Yogi.

Vichaar virmash consensus building seems to be a lost art. I know expecting anything from today's opposition is too much, but can't they take people into consideration and confidence?

[ritesh]

Its amazing how well oiled protests/violence apparatus has been setup by BIF. It can call & organise protests in a matter of couple of days and bring nation to a halt. Serious questions needs to be raised and introspected...one would have assumed that Home Ministry, IB etc., would have identified key states where trouble may crop up and honestly, it is surprising that no preemptive action was taken to ensure L&O continuity...GoI knows that state machinery of these trouble makers won't be of any help...why not deploy RAF or other companies of Central Forces? Wonder what Home Minster/Ministry is doing!

What is also amazing is how much this government is caught unprepared every time this happens.

Sirjee, any opinion on James. bond?? Seems like he has failed and failed even greater at every possible opportunity? How long should this person be tolerated?

[KLNMurthy]

Bharata Nagarik Force .

This may be a nonsense pie-in-the-sky idea, but it’s a big idea. .

Murthyji
What you are suggesting is like the French Foreign Legion or the British Gurkha Battalion but all Desi males (and females)
All I worried about is that it will be labelled as expenditionay force with hegemonic ideas
Already our neighbors are making this allegation
Plus where is logistics base for support and supplies
Who’s going to bear the expenses
Correct me if I am wrong don’t we already shoulder UN peace keeping activities
Imagine the ‘Flaming Hole’ time of the Britshits EU Ameriki and Chinese
We can kiss goodbye to TOT of any type for our MIC

French foreign legion is a bit different—that’s literally foreign mercenaries fighting France’s battles outside France.

I am proposing a dharmic overseas kabila that has elements of Islamic invasionary forces, British East India Company, Andhra Naidus of Vijayanagar who partnered with Tamil brothers post- Kampa Raya’s liberation of Madurai etc.

French, British, Chinese etc. never worried that people will say this or that. Or how much it will cost. Because it is an investment.

Part of the job of political leadership is to build relationships and generate consensus. Modi sarkar did a lot of outreach to Arab countries. Not so much for core African countries which have the most potential. Might have been a long shot but they could have tried for a comprehensive relationship which includes support in fighting Islamist terrorism, education, medicine, technology & business growth along with opportunities for young dharmic Indians?
Would it have been such a hard sell to tell Christian, moderate Muslim, and native religion Nigerians: hey India is with you all the way in crushing the monsters who are kidnapping your daughters?

I call it a lack of imagination & the inability to think big.

[KLNMurthy]

I fear I feel very much the same way. Is he not getting the IB inputs on the country etc. or are the inputs being sabotaged, I wonder?

Modi and his team needs to take the blame for the same. Absolute zero discussion across the board, zero communication through daily press meetings, and incompetent firefighting abilities. Dare I say, can't see him back in 2024. People across the board are yearning for Yogi.

Vichaar virmash consensus building seems to be a lost art. I know expecting anything from today's opposition is too much, but can't they take people into consideration and confidence?

None of those wonderful magic bullets would have helped in stopping a determined BIF enemy.

I am worried about the persistent show of weakness and unpreparedness and overall indifference to those things. It will have very bad consequences for the country.

[ritesh]

Modi and his team needs to take the blame for the same. Absolute zero discussion across the board, zero communication through daily press meetings, and incompetent firefighting abilities. Dare I say, can't see him back in 2024. People across the board are yearning for Yogi.

Vichaar virmash consensus building seems to be a lost art. I know expecting anything from today's opposition is too much, but can't they take people into consideration and confidence?

None of those wonderful magic bullets would have helped in stopping a determined BIF enemy.

I am worried about the persistent show of weakness and unpreparedness and overall indifference to those things. It will have very bad consequences for the country.

Sir jee, beg to differ.

Same was done for 370, but mass opinion was with the govt and hence opposition could do very little.

But CAA,Farm bill and now this... There has been complete collapse of communication channel. No prior intimation... No effort done to explain the benefits.

[Zynda]

"Didn't Anticipate": Navy Chief On Violent Protests Over Agnipath Scheme
I am really beginning to question this "shock & awe" style of reforms by NDA-2.0 (For Article 270, it was needed and even there IIRC, plenty of reinforcements were flown in to the valley a day or two before the announcement)...the above statement reeks of GoI not doing their homework properly.

This seems like a decision taken by top brass and/or GoI forcing down this decision...this admin is definitely bold in undertaking crucial & much needed reforms but seems to fail on execution, messaging, controlling the narrative...as of now the incompetence is right in the open going by statements like the above!

Is there any reason why recruitment via Agnipath scheme could not start from next year? This would have given a chance for this year's aspirants to make it in to regular scheme and also weakened the narrative of current protests/BIF...GoI (along with state governments) would have a year to explain the benefits of Agnipath to masses.

[chetak]

Past half way into the second term as PM, it becomes less and less joyful to see him driving the country with a learner's license.

the dominance of the RS by the ruling formation is what they are trying to hobble by bringing back the street veto.

It worked very well in the test case of the "farmer's" agitation where riff raff were allowed to push BIF agenda.

ukraine came along and just blew it all away.

I get this strong feeling that there is a dark horse "opposition candidate" who has not yet shown his/her face for the presidential elections.

after all, aren't "democratic protests" the one surefire way to undermine any legitimately established electoral democracy obtained fairly and transparently via the ballot box.

sadly for us, a rising India and a rising Modi is putting the fear of god into many local and global entities.

the abrahamics have been pushed to the wall and the myth of the "rules based world order" which is another variation of the street veto, but on a an international scale, especially when India has never been allowed a say in the formation of any of these "rules"

this is where the BIF, using stooges like pappu and stalin, are planning to tale this fake narrative of "federalism" that they are now pushing

This is another form of veto that they are planning to give themselves.


https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 64841.html

Tamil Nadu chief minister MK Stalin on Thursday urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi to facilitate placing legislations of national importance before the Inter-State Council ahead of its introduction in Parliament.

In a letter to PM Modi, Stalin requested that at least three Inter-State Council meetings be held every year even as he expressed his happiness over the re-constitution of the council, last month.

“I strongly suggest that every Bill of national importance that is likely to affect one or more States should be placed before the Council before it is introduced into Parliament, and the views of the Council are also tabled before the Parliament at the time of introduction of such Bill,” Stalin said in his letter.

The agenda for the next meeting may include matters such as this for discussion to strengthen the spirit of co-operative federalism, he requested.

Without such a platform, there is no scope for effective and interactive communication between the Union and States on issues of common interest. “We have seen instances where many Bills affecting the rights and interest of the States, are passed in Parliament without proper opportunity being given to the opposition to debate its merits and voice the concern of the States.” As a consequence, the views, concerns and constructive suggestions of States are not properly heard by the Union during the process of decision making for the nation as a whole.

[Cyrano]

Ajit Bharati, whom NaMo fans can't stand due to his hard hitting and superb lampooning has put out a very balanced analysis and reasoned defense of Agnipath.

This guy is actually very good and proves that you need to be of well above average intellect to play the jester. But this time he is not joking but doing the explaining and debunking better than anyone in the govt.

It's in shuddh Hindi mostly!

[Cyrano]

Let Thiru Stalin lead by example and consult his opposition leaders at state and district levels. Afterall one can argue that a state is a federation of districts, isn't it?

[Rudradev]

The one critical messaging fault with all these BJP GOI initiatives has been failing to take the general public into confidence ahead of time.

Modi is (even now) loved by the masses. What set him apart from the old breed of Netas, in the first place, was the perception of his having a 'common touch', of being humble, of listening to even the poorest of rural citizens. I am stunned that this leverage has not been utilized at all for messaging any of the initiatives we have discussed.

CAA? Before announcing anything, GOI should have run a saturation media campaign at all levels about the plight of non-Muslims in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh, and the unique predicament of non-Muslims who had come to India as refugees from those countries. Hindus would have been motivated to go out in counter-protests in FAVOUR of CAA. Not all Hindus, obviously, but enough that the message would have been amplified, and enough to present an equal or greater strength in numbers with respect to the left-jihadi agitators.

Farm Bills? Before announcing the bills, couldn't GOI representatives have fanned out to farming communities across the length and breadth of the country and convinced farmers why the provisions would be vastly beneficial to them? Why couldn't these meetings and rallies have been televised in a relentless propaganda blitz, along with neat infographics and soundbites? When the Agri-Brokers tried to stage the so-called "farmer protests", why weren't busloads of Pro-Farm-Bill farmers brought in to oppose these protests in equal or greater numbers?

The way to do these things is not by simply announcing Reform XYZ as if from aasmaani kitab. It is far better to use every tool of media access and manipulation, first creating the public perception that a very large constituency is demanding Reform XYZ... and then presenting the delivery of Reform XYZ as a great virtue of the GOI in responding efficiently to the needs of the Indian people.

The fact that the opposition has been able to set the narrative yet again with Agnipath, and the GOI has once again shown itself as flailing desperately to control a fire that its thoughtless diktats have sparked, shows an unwillingness to learn lessons even from the failures of the past.

[vijayk]

Huge public outreach is needed using people like Smriti Irani before announcing.

[KLNMurthy]

Ajit Bharati, whom NaMo fans can't stand due to his hard hitting and superb lampooning has put out a very balanced analysis and reasoned defense of Agnipath.

This guy is actually very good and proves that you need to .be of well above average intellect to play the jester. But this time he is not joking but doing the explaining and debunking better than anyone in the govt.

It's in shuddh Hindi mostly!

Link not visible to me, here’s one I found from searching;

https://youtu.be/RbJ6ntoPKI4

He is truly excellent, wish he was available in all Indian languages

[KLNMurthy]

@Rudradev and others:

What do you think is the underlying cause behind not using Modi as a spokesman-resource to the public to explain these reforms ahead of time?

[Cyrano]

You cannot send your best crowd puller batsman out to the middle when BIFs are swinging too much and neither of the umpires (Hizzoners or media) can be really trusted.

[KLNMurthy]

You cannot send your best crowd puller batsman out to the middle when BIFs are swinging too much and neither of the umpires (Hizzoners or media) can be really trusted.

So you shouldn’t send Tendulkar out to bat when opponents are raining fire with the new ball?

The job of Tendulkar is to build up a solid unbeatable score against the best that the opposition can throw at him.

Who keeps Tendulkar safe and quiet in the dressing room?

All I am saying is, “can someone help me understand if there is any reason why Modi doesn’t go on TV and explain the reform prior to it being proclaimed?” Are the judges going to stop Modi from giving a speech on TV?

[bhavani]

There is something definitely sinister afoot. As soon as India did not side completely with US and stop all trade with Russia a lot of protests started immediately. Who the hell is financing all These protests?

Agnipath scheme was not a major revolutionary step. I am quite surprised at the reaction. Right now If Modi even declares a scheme about sanitation there will be huge protests.

This whole thing stinks too high Heaven.

The US will now work full time to remove Modi government in 2024. Doval and team have to work full time.

[KLNMurthy]

There is something definitely sinister afoot. As soon as India did not side completely with US and stop all trade with Russia a lot of protests started immediately. Who the hell is financing all These protests?

Agnipath scheme was not a major revolutionary step. I am quite surprised at the reaction. Right now If Modi even declares a scheme about sanitation there will be huge protests.

This whole thing stinks too high Heaven.

The US will now work full time to remove Modi government in 2024. Doval and team have to work full time.

I am sure US etc are fishing in troubled waters.

But is India and Modi so helpless that all they can do is to passively wait for the US to do dirty things to them & just cry when it happens?

Sorry but I think Modi & BJP are just botching these things. US troublemaking is a constant factor that needs to be taken into account like the weather.

[VenkataS]

Whoever is in charge of disseminating information to the public in clear concise terms, building public opinion for their initiatives is failing in their job. Who can the Govt recruit to fix this?

[vijayk]

whatsapp, Twitter, Instagram and Youtube are being used to spread propaganda immediately. But there is Nitish, Kujli, Mamta and now KCR joined the BIF gangs

[Rudradev]

@Rudradev and others:

What do you think is the underlying cause behind not using Modi as a spokesman-resource to the public to explain these reforms ahead of time?

I can think of three broad reasons, though there may be others.

1) Modi himself. As a principle of allocating his time/energy/focus, he has often publicly reiterated (I paraphrase): " in the first four years of a term, it's all governance; in the last year, politics."

To carry forward the cricket analogy, he prefers to come to the crease 7 or 8 wickets down and then hit a barrage of sixes. Before that, he has other priorities than cricket (or batting, at any rate). He does come in at times to address rallies during crucial state election campaigns, but for the most part, he hardly ever interacts with the people as a politician until the year before elections. Rather, he waits for the events of the first four years to shape the narrative (including events, policy implementations, opposition reactions, and enduring public perceptions); only then does he craft a hard hitting message around all of that, and bring it to the public.

One may try to convince him otherwise, but given that (a) he is getting older and (b) this formula has served him through a continuous 25-year streak of three state-level and two national election victories, that may be difficult to do.

2) The struggle between pre-internet institutions and the unique demands of an information-era public.

This is a broad sociological theme that defines many conflicts in our time. A prime example is the struggle between mainstream media institutions (Washington Post, BBC, Times of India) whose self-image is defined by decades of organizational history preceding the internet age-- and on the other side, a news-consuming public that is plugged into social media 24/7.

Journalists from those institutions simply cannot believe that they're getting real-time, uncomplimentary feedback from readers who question their reporting skills, their sources, their motives, their credibility (ironically, this inherited attitude of institutional privilege also affects younger journalists, who are very much a part of the post-internet generation at a personal level).

To the journalists, it's a matter of shock and outrage that words printed in the august pages of the NY Times and The Economist-- which were accepted without question by the great mass of readers once upon a time-- are now met with lively skepticism every hour. Their outward reaction is mostly the cop-out of claiming they're being harassed, trolled, bullied and otherwise violated online. Their underlying grievance is a lament that the 'barbarians' have now breached the gates of their hallowed institutional privilege. Such injustice!

It will take another couple of generations for journalists to fully realize and deal with the fact that the internet has been a great equalizer between press institutions and their consumers, and account for this new dynamic as a matter of course in their professional lives.

In the GOI's case, the "pre-internet" institution involved is the Indian bureaucracy (the IAS and its sister services). The PMO today has become the province of high-powered IAS people who take the lead in implementing its policy changes (Modi and his ministers simply decide what needs to be done, and provide general timelines-- the actual management of how it is implemented is in the hands of these IAS folks).

The specific IAS people at top spots in the PMO may be ideologically simpatico with the BJP and Hindutva in general. However, as a matter of institutional culture-- a much more deeply-ingrained determinant of behaviour-- they are no different from all the other IAS cadres of all political hues. The IAS may answer to BJP today, but it was shaped by 70 years of Nehru-Gandhi mai-baap sarkar; worse yet, its attitudes and culture were inherited from the British ICS, which was full of contempt for the idea that natives should have any say in how they're governed.

So it's no surprise at all that these IAS babus simply do what their venerable forerunners have always done: simply announce on the appointed day that "this is now the policy, thathaasthu, deal with it". Marketing? Why should they do marketing? Are they selling toothpaste? The janata voted this government into power, now they can jolly well shut up and be governed. To babus, the very notion of having to "sell" the hoi-polloi on the products of their mighty administrative faculties is an insufferable indignity. After all, the IAS is a better class of human beings than mere vote-hungry politicians!

The top ministers of GOI may be slowly waking up to the fact that this attitude of the Babus is a liability, with potentially damaging consequences for public confidence in the government. However, just as with the press, they will not have an easy job convincing the IAS to relinquish the haughty self-conception that is part and parcel of its age-old institutional culture. If the GOI mantris tell the IAS babus that they should "market" or "survey" or "communicate" before implementing a policy, they are in for a lot of resistance and pushback.

I hope they do it anyway, but it won't be easy.

3) That leaves the BJP itself (to do the marketing, surveying, polling, and groundwork communication before a new policy is implemented).

Here, the problem (I fear) is the classic middle-class-plus Indian problem. "We are like this onlee".

"Is it my job? Others should do it."

"Nobody else is doing it, so why should I do it?"

"I will do it after lunch, nap, and maybe vacation."

And worse, worse, worst of all:

"Suppose I take the initiative and do it. Then, what if something goes wrong? Everyone will blame me, no? Better to sit on my thumbs and do nothing. Then, at least, I am like everyone else-- and if everyone gets blamed together, my own share of blame will be diluted."

The problem is exacerbated in BJP because it is the largest political party in the world. That's nothing to celebrate. It just means the ratio of duffers to competent individuals is 100,000:1 instead of 100:1.

So the BJP IT Cell, so notorious amongst the professional victims of left-wing social media, turns out to be this perpetually hapless, perennially reactive, insufferably dumb beast. It is pathetically easy to outmanoeuver, never takes timely action, and often makes matters worse with a desperately disorganized effort that comes across as making last-minute excuses for the indefensible.

QED.

[bhavani]

Equations are changing. An attempt is being done to create a perception similar to 2004, where all allies backed off. Nitish is the cat on the wall. Jagan will just align with whoever in power.

Leaders like scindia and others who came ffom congress can always flow back.

Yogi ji' role will become vital. UP, MP, Rajasthan, Gujarat are really vital now

[Rudradev]

Equations are changing. An attempt is being done to create a perception similar to 2004, where all allies backed off.

Equations are always changing. How many times has Nitish Kumar skipped in and out of the NDA (or threatened to)? How about the Shiv Sena?

I'm not sure of the relevance of 2004 and allies. Today's BJP HAS no allies.

At the center, BJP has formed a single-party majority govt in 2019, as it did in 2014. At the level of state governments, there are no allies, but only opportunistic partners (and BJP has always known this).

Even at the state level, the coalition partners have realized that the cost of opportunism (forming govt with the BJP) will ultimately lead to their own extinction. Once a trend of BJP + coalition governments is established in a state, BJP will keep growing its vote share in the state, and the "partner's" influence will keep decreasing over time. That's why you have such weird bedfellows as the Mahavikas Agadi in MH.

All these are already known factors. BJP is the king of the jungle and every other animal is bent on its humiliation if not downfall.

In contrast, the 1999-2004 Vajpayee Govt, the 2004-2009 and 2009-2014 UPA governments were ALL minority governments. The leading party had far less than 272 LS seats, and allies were a matter of life or death.

The situation now could not be more different. I'm not saying it is easy, or predicting a cakewalk to victory for BJP in 2024. But creating "perceptions of minority discontentment" will absolutely not work against BJP this time (as it did in 2004). Think about what the Hindu electorate was like then, vs. now.

Culturally, psychologically, economically, there is simply no comparison. Muslim rioting and public disorder used to make Hindus feel insecure or ashamed in those days. Today, such things simply fill the veins of Hindus with steel.

[vimal]

I don't understand why Modi has to be the PR person for BJP. He is the PM let him fulfill that role.
Doesn't he have a B-team to handle this at lower level? MoD boffins, military and entire babucracy?

There were some brilliant leaders like Meenakshi Lekhi who've been sidelined for imported congi princelings.
There should a shadow government that runs these kinds of things just like TMC or Congress does. It should be a good learning opportunity for youngsters also. Not sure where that structure is?

As far as violence is concerned, UP and Bihar have always been the crowd feeder for these types of mobs across India. It would probably take just as low as $2000 to organize such a mob within a few hours and there are professional netas who can do that for you. Not to mention disgruntled opposition leaders who can use their own personal armies to do such things. Feudal mentality!