2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

[Manish_P]

...

no ambiguity here. Jaishankar tells it like it is.

(but he did not mention the britshits who are as culpable as the amrikis).

...

They have ceased to matter.. erstwhile PM IKG had referred to them as a 3rd rate power.

[greatde]

The time of announcing a scheme to actually implementing a scheme has to be shorten and optimized. In case, immediate implementation is best. Like DeMo.

It's that duration in between, that allows the BIF to protests, while the country and society doesn't get the actual benefits of the scheme. The benefits can only come when scheme is implemented. And without implementation, the status quo is the default reaction of our Indian society and system...

[chetak]

forked tongue speak

ANI · 18 Jun
"I appeal to Punjab govt and Central govt to provide security to Sikhs who are present there or bring them here (to India)," says Harjinder Singh Dhami, President, Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee on the attack on Gurudwara in Afghanistan's Kabul

[Cyrano]

After listening to this I get the feeling the clarity with which India - by which I mean this Govt - is able to point out widely accepted fallacies abroad and set right the narrative and thereby take Indian foreign policy stand in much needed fresh directions, is totally missing when confronted with the same or analogous fallacies and established narratives at home within India, and ties itself into knots and boxes itself into a corner needlessly.

Electoral compulsions cannot be the only explanation for this win abroad but lose at home on the same topic phenomenon.

I'm inclined to think it's the sum result of inaccurate reading of the people's minds and expectations, lack of courage to take on certain battles, and a why is it up to me/my party/my govt to fix all the historic evils that best this country type of thinking.

May be we can give HM as well to Dr SJ ... (I know it's as impossible).… but AS hasn't been the same combative person since his bout of Covid. As for NaMo... Who knows what he is thinking?

[ArjunPandit]

My prediction made 2 yrs ago has come true and since then we've seen farmers, islamists and students go on a rampage over and over again. So if a commoner nobody like me could predict and anticipate what was to come, how is it the government and the party in power is caught unguarded and unprepared time and again ? Some of us who questioned the competence of the Modi 2.0 including some "holy cows" in the cabinet were lathicharged here , looks like now there isn't much sand left to play ostrich anymore.

I think the above part is what frustrating a lot of us here...

Part of me can't shake this feeling that Modi v2.0 is fixated on Optics (and possibly surrounded by too many "yes" men...who are possible feeding wrong intel and thus the poor execution or anticipation of reaction to some of the recent policy reforms). This fixation is probably why GoI is not willing to come down hard on protesters. Even going after low to medium level BIF folks/organisation seems like a No-go thing...possibly because the eco-system will fight back by creating a perception of more oppression, civil rights abuse in International circuits and for GoI, it circles back to again image/Optics. We need Modi 1.0...person who had the guts to come out in 2016 & say openly that Indian SOF crossed the border & hit terror camps in TSP...image be damned.

part of me thinks that files are being prepared to identify and strangulate these snakes residing in our own nation..all this optics is just for the sake of making others believe in optics..these slow boiling lead to some common sources....and that i think is being identified..losses need to be borne out to to map and expose enemies within..as much hard it gets..it is necessary to support this govt..not that anyone has an option either

[Cyrano]

I hope what you say is true - though there is no evidence for it - and we'll see a sudden and total de-dynastification with imposition of a year's president's rule all over the country, and all the corrupt and deshdrohis in jail, done as shockingly as demonetisation. Short of which we'll all be dead before these slow boiled frogs croak.

[chetak]

I hope what you say is true - though there is no evidence for it - and we'll see a sudden and total de-dynastification with imposition of a year's president's rule all over the country, and all the corrupt and deshdrohis in jail, done as shockingly as demonetisation. Short of which we'll all be dead before these slow boiled frogs croak.

let's get the presidential and vice presidential elections out of the way.

secure the fortress first, before thinking of aakraman

[Tanaji]

part of me thinks that files are being prepared to identify and strangulate these snakes residing in our own nation..all this optics is just for the sake of making others believe in optics..these slow boiling lead to some common sources....and that i think is being identified..losses need to be borne out to to map and expose enemies within..as much hard it gets..it is necessary to support this govt..not that anyone has an option either

At what point do we start re-assessing our beliefs in a particular group? Chalking down everything to some grand master plan and Chanakian thinking is a sign of delusion and being in a cult. Especially if the past experience of that groups behaviour does nothing to support that level of trust and belief. We have been proved wrong before: CAA, farm laws, W Bengal Hindu killings, Nupur Sharma, inability to take on the eco system the list goes on and on. In spite of this if one keeps believing in some grand Chanakian plan then aren’t we the one who is at fault?

The BJP knows that it does not need to care about its core supporters as there is no game in town. Its supporters are the perennially abused wife in a relationship where the husband is more concerned about impressing the lady next door than his own. Sadly the wife has no alternative and the husband is well aware of the fact.

[ArjunPandit]

....

At what point do we start re-assessing our beliefs in a particular group?

when we have a better option...current facts are in your favor, also the other option is more frightening to live with..

[Paul]

I have a theory on this....NM is representation of a leading wave of the coming hard tilt to the right. The example of the 1905 revolution in Tsarist Russia comes to mind which brought Socialist Kerensky to power which in turn led to the hard left Bolshevik revolution in 1917 and we all know what happened afterwards.

Point is....it is important to generate a consensus and carry the country with you. That is v important. NM is helping generate that consensus. I think he or his successor should/will remove the "Socialist" and "secular" from the constitution preamble first and for that they need majority in the upper house too.

Even Asad Owaisi's father Salauddin Owaisi has his fans amongst the Brahmins of Hyderabad(I know some of them personally) who say he has helped them. Now his sons do not need that support anymore.

[kit]

Interesting observation by sadguru at 7:00 , even at the time of India's struggle for independence despite the worst treatment meted to Indians by the brits , only 20% strove to fight them for independence ...and the rest 80 ? .. they tried to appease !.. do we want to be that 80 percent ( relevant even now !) or the awake 20 % ?!

We are still fighting the woke forces that have besieged the Indian democracy

[chetak]

[SRajesh]

Any ideas as who the Presidential candidate is from NDA side??
Pres Kovind for the second term or ??
Mr V Naidu or Mr AM Khan!!
My gut feeling is either Pres Kovind second term or AM Khan

[Sachin]

Any ideas as who the Presidential candidate is from NDA side??

What is more comical is the hasty retreat of potential candidates from the secular, liberal & progressive cabal. Don't know what is making them to keep away from the race. There was also some xyz Gandhi, who I felt could have tried as he had nothing much to lose any ways.

[chetak]

Any ideas as who the Presidential candidate is from NDA side??

What is more comical is the hasty retreat of potential candidates from the secular, liberal & progressive cabal. Don't know what is making them to keep away from the race. There was also some xyz Gandhi, who I felt could have tried as he had nothing much to lose any ways.

this is from the salt march ghandhy family

All the march has gone out of the guy, only the salt is remaining

he is a permanent commie fixture, like an old, dusty, faded, and frayed window curtain that some one forgot to change

[Dilbu]

These days people associate the name Gandhi with Pappu and the familia. It has not only lost the initial brand value but also become a liability in Indian politics.

[chetak]

Any ideas as who the Presidential candidate is from NDA side??

What is more comical is the hasty retreat of potential candidates from the secular, liberal & progressive cabal. Don't know what is making them to keep away from the race. There was also some xyz Gandhi, who I felt could have tried as he had nothing much to lose any ways.

Modi recently made public the gist of the conversation between power ji and himself and that has sunk power ji's already leaky boat.

so, no chance for kcr, mumtaz begum, farcrook abdul, nitishwa and other foolish hopefuls depending on Modi's largesse to give them the required votes.

power ji's repeated dilli trips for "talks", one suspects, were just for that selfish reason, to convince Modi to make a page for him in the history books

[Cyrano]

AM Khan would be a very useful choice.

[Rampy]

Food for thoughts, especially for people who keep cribbing nothing is done by Modi and he should resign or they will vote for Raul baba or best Momta

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZsxuuP4r_o&t=61

[Rudradev]

I have a theory on this....NM is representation of a leading wave of the coming hard tilt to the right. The example of the 1905 revolution in Tsarist Russia comes to mind which brought Socialist Kerensky to power which in turn led to the hard left Bolshevik revolution in 1917 and we all know what happened afterwards.

I strongly doubt anything like this will happen in India's case.

Despite all the social media complaints about Modi/BJP having "betrayed its core Hindu voters", I'm very, very skeptical that Modi/BJP will face any significant electoral backlash.

It's not JUST that "there is no alternative" among existing political parties to the left of BJP. It is also that the supposed "alternate right wing faction of core Hindus" has not been able to furnish a workable, practical, real-world platform of what they would replace the BJP with.

To be a credible alternative it's not enough to just have "feelings". The alternate Hindu right would have to formulate and sell a concrete vision to the masses as an electoral platform. Simply repeating: I am so angry that Modi is appeasing minorities, I am so angry that Muslims are empowered to run roughshod over the constitution and civil order, I am so angry that (this, that and the other) was not done for Hindus... is NOT enough to be a platform.

This is where the example of Kerensky and the Bolsheviks throws the contrast into sharp relief. The Bolsheviks knew EXACTLY what they wanted (dictatorship of the proletariat, etc.) thanks to Marx, and they knew EXACTLY how they would implement it thanks to Lenin and others. The alternative to Kerensky was crystal clear, both in terms of the end goal and the implementation.

That's what it takes to get a mass of people behind a movement. An agenda, a plan, and a roadmap to get there. The Hindus complaining about Modi/BJP have NONE of these three things. They just have an emotional response. I would really like to know what the concrete end goal is: Hindu Rashtra? Complete transfer of Muslim population to Pakistan? Muslims can stay in India but as second-class citizens? Muslims can stay in India as equal citizens under UCC? How is all this mandated? Is the constitution amended? Are new laws passed?

Unless all this is articulated, what is the "Kerensky" Modi going to be replaced with exactly? Does anyone know? If they don't know, why will they support it?

Can even three of the Hindus complaining about Modi/BJP's great betrayal, agree on the specifics of this agenda, plan, and roadmap for an "alternate Hindu right".... even here on the Bharat-Rakshak forum, let alone anywhere in the real world?

If they cannot, then they are by definition irrelevant to the political fortune of the BJP. They are a tiny sliver of Metropolitan voters plugged into social media and imagining themselves to represent the core of the BJP's support base. At the most, they have the power to stay home or vote NOTA, which will help Uddhav or Kejriwal gain another 3-4 seats maximum.

[Shanmukh]

This is where your example of Kerensky and the Bolsheviks throws the contrast into sharp relief. The Bolsheviks knew EXACTLY what they wanted (dictatorship of the proletariat, etc.) thanks to Marx, and they knew EXACTLY how they would implement it thanks to Lenin and others. The alternative to Kerensky was crystal clear, both in terms of the end goal and the implementation.

Bolsheviks were the will of ONE man - Lenin. There were just 8500 Bolsheviks at the outbreak of the 1905 revolts, and 24,000 Bolsheviks in February 1917. If you look at the early communist literature, they had no idea of what they wanted to do exactly either. Take a look at the wide difference between the writings of Lenin, Trotsky, Zhinoviev, Kamenev, Bukharin, and Mirsaid Sultan Galiyev - they all wanted different things and had different ways of doing them. Lenin's charisma convinced them to put aside their differences and unite behind him. And once he got power, most of them were sidelined and [later under Stalin] shot. And this is just in Russia. If I include the whole of Europe [and Europe was where the Communists were heavily concentrated], the differences are even more stark. If I include Rosa Luxembourg, Leo Jogisches, Palmiro Togliatti, Maurice Thorez, and Dolores Ibbaruri, it becomes even more chaotic. The Communist groups of Europe/Russia used to split five times a week, and there was a joke that Cambridge would have at least one new Communist/Leftist group every week. If one person knows what exactly he wants to do, and how to do it, it is enough. All it requires is the will and the commitment to do so.

THAT's what it takes to get a mass of people behind a movement. An agenda, a plan, and a roadmap to get there. The Hindus complaining about Modi/BJP have NONE of these three things. They just have an emotional response. I would really like to know what the concrete agenda is: Hindu Rashtra? Complete transfer of Muslim population to Pakistan? Muslims can stay in India but as second-class citizens? Muslims can stay in India as equal citizens under UCC? How is all this mandated? Is the constitution amended? Are new laws passed?

Not true. There are many books even, which envision a Hindu rashtra. Sure, they have different specific agendas. But, this is no different from the differences between the Communists.

Can even three of the Hindus complaining about Modi/BJP's great betrayal, agree on the specifics of this agenda, plan, and roadmap for an "alternate Hindu right".... even here on the Bharat-Rakshak forum, let alone anywhere in the real world?

Abhas Chatterjee has a book on what he wants from the Hindu Rashtra. So, BTW, did Golwalkar, whom the Sangh has just dumped.

If they cannot, then they are by definition irrelevant to the political fortune of the BJP. They are a tiny sliver of Metropolitan voters plugged into social media and imagining themselves to represent the core of the BJP's support base. At the most, they have the power to stay home or vote NOTA, which will help Uddhav or Kejriwal gain another 3-4 seats maximum.

No one can predict this accurately. But Vajpayee was wiped out due to Hindu anger. Hindus sat at home drinking tea, leaving him to die on election day - this is why BJP got crushed in many states, including UP. Modi is not immune to the laws of electoral politics either. Now, I am not predicting that Modi will lose - just that Hindutva base is not tiny. Hindutva base is what pushed the BJP to ~20% of the vote from practically zero, in most states. BJP just does not have the ability to replace them. If they do leave or simply abscond - not saying that they will - BJP will collapse. There is no two ways about it.

[Kaivalya]

Food for thoughts, especially for people who keep cribbing nothing is done by Modi and he should resign or they will vote for Raul baba...

+1

Burnol sales have increased with textbooks getting re-written by NCERT :

https://indianexpress.com/article/expre ... a-7979095/

Now is the time to sustain it before we can scale it and make bigger plans around it

[Rudradev]

THAT's what it takes to get a mass of people behind a movement. An agenda, a plan, and a roadmap to get there. The Hindus complaining about Modi/BJP have NONE of these three things. They just have an emotional response. I would really like to know what the concrete agenda is: Hindu Rashtra? Complete transfer of Muslim population to Pakistan? Muslims can stay in India but as second-class citizens? Muslims can stay in India as equal citizens under UCC? How is all this mandated? Is the constitution amended? Are new laws passed?

Not true. There are many books even, which envision a Hindu rashtra. Sure, they have different specific agendas. But, this is no different from the differences between the Communists.

Interesting, and inspires the question of why Hindutva in India utterly failed ~100 years ago, while all manner of Communist, Nationalist, Islamist, and other movements managed to achieve revolutionary change and install their governments of choice in many other countries around the world (including independent nations as well as those in the throes of anti-colonial struggles). For my money, it's because Hindutva at the time could not produce a unitary vision that enough people could be convinced to buy into and act upon. Blaming Gandhi/Nehru in retrospect is little different from kvetching about Modi today... nobody voluntarily relinquishes power unless they are compelled to, by constitutional means or otherwise.

There is no question that the activities of the HMS, RSS, and others had some impact on the dispensation of what would eventually become independent India, and perhaps their achievements were even essential to the survival of Hindu political consciousness in the 20th century... but equally, they were very far from being a Hindu Rashtra.

Can even three of the Hindus complaining about Modi/BJP's great betrayal, agree on the specifics of this agenda, plan, and roadmap for an "alternate Hindu right".... even here on the Bharat-Rakshak forum, let alone anywhere in the real world?

Abhas Chatterjee has a book on what he wants from the Hindu Rashtra. So, BTW, did Golwalkar, whom the Sangh has just dumped.

My question stands. You have stated (I assume) that you favour the type of Hindu Rashtra articulated by Abhas Chatterjee, fine. Now how many others on this forum know exactly what that is, can articulate it, and agree with you on the particulars? I myself have not read Chatterjee's book-- does he define an end goal as well as suggest a roadmap to get there?

Golwalkar is of little more than academic interest at this point. A blueprint for Hindu Rashtra conceived in the 1930s, even a comprehensive one, would need an extensive overhaul to be applicable in the present day. Any takers?

If they cannot, then they are by definition irrelevant to the political fortune of the BJP. They are a tiny sliver of Metropolitan voters plugged into social media and imagining themselves to represent the core of the BJP's support base. At the most, they have the power to stay home or vote NOTA, which will help Uddhav or Kejriwal gain another 3-4 seats maximum.

No one can predict this accurately. But Vajpayee was wiped out due to Hindu anger. Hindus sat at home drinking tea, leaving him to die on election day - this is why BJP got crushed in many states, including UP. Modi is not immune to the laws of electoral politics either. Now, I am not predicting that Modi will lose - just that Hindutva base is not tiny. Hindutva base is what pushed the BJP to ~20% of the vote from practically zero, in most states. BJP just does not have the ability to replace them. If they do leave or simply abscond - not saying that they will - BJP will collapse. There is no two ways about it.

Vajpayee was wiped out, in large part, because a great mass of voters could be convinced that he had run a "suit-boot sarkar" that left them behind. It was a precarious time for many, with the aftershocks of liberalization still reverberating through the electorate, and the benefits of having unraveled the ancien mai-baap sarkar far from obvious to all.

The engineered food shortages of 2003-4, set against the visible signs of great prosperity for a privileged few and the perception of corrupt manipulation with the tacit blessings of the ruling class (Jain Hawala scam, etc.) -- all this created the impression of unbearable economic injustice that the opposition capitalized on. Remember that the 2004 LS was the high water mark for the Marxist Left in terms of electoral victories in independent India-- their participation was indispensable to the UPA I government.

Modi took that lesson to heart and has done everything possible to implement an efficient, economically inclusive, and far-reaching welfare state. This, together with the perception of overall good governance and minimal corruption, have secured for him the level of mass appeal that perhaps only Indira Gandhi ever had before. This does not make him invulnerable by any means, but it does mean that unseating him is a very far cry from defeating the minority Vajpayee/NDA-1 government.

Did the absconding of core Hindutvavadis also play a role in Vajpayee's 2004 loss? Sure. But even if Vajpayee sarkar had been a lot more 'kattar Hindutvavadi', would the enthusiastic support of the Hindutvavadi constituency have been enough to secure his re-election? I very much doubt it.

[vimal]

Modi took that lesson to heart and has done everything possible to implement an efficient, economically inclusive, and far-reaching welfare state. This, together with the perception of overall good governance and minimal corruption, have secured for him the level of mass appeal that perhaps only Indira Gandhi ever had before. This does not make him invulnerable by any means, but it does mean that unseating him is a very far cry from defeating the minority Vajpayee/NDA-1 government.

Well said Rudradev.

Also, as they say all politics is local.

Modi has realized that Hindus do not form a vote block and are too divided for their own good. So essentially he has to bribe them to vote for him with welfare schemes. Yadavs in UP and Bihar have tried their it utmost to defeat BJP with the help from peaceful. It’s the same story we’ve seen for many centuries.

[Tanaji]

Lets not go to extremes whenever BJP is criticised and put up statements such as “complete transfer of Muslim population” when no one is talking about the same. We all are well aware that these things are beyondv the realms of possibility without a very serious cost being paid at various levels.

However there is a middle ground to be had between what we are being subjected to and “complete transfer” don’t you think? For starters, how about not giving in to assorted anti National street displays of power such as CAA and farm Bill where hands were being chopped off and National Highway being blocked? Or perhaps not abandon your own party members to the wolves like those in West Bengal and Nupur Sharma? Don’t you think it’s utterly shameful to abandon your own party members because you want to appear as the good kid to who knows whom? They are BJP workers, not members of Northern Light Infantry to be abandoned like a certain government did. Or maybe not walk back major policy decisions after announcement such as CAA? Or how about a very simple thing such as RTE? I am not even asking about the more contentious ones such as history textbooks or taking on the Supreme Court or freeing the temples…

Fact is BJP is taking its core voters for granted and thinks it can ignore them. They do so at their own peril.

[Tanaji]

Shanmukhji , excellent post.

[Rudradev]

^^ If the above is directed at me, please note that I have NOT used "complete transfer of Muslim population" to mischaracterize those that criticize the BJP. I have listed it among many options.

Hindu Rashtra? Complete transfer of Muslim population to Pakistan? Muslims can stay in India but as second-class citizens? Muslims can stay in India as equal citizens under UCC? How is all this mandated? Is the constitution amended? Are new laws passed?

I accept that this is not something that all or even most of the people criticizing BJP/Modi want. Fine. What I am saying is that if you aim to achieve political change, it's not enough to say what you don't want, you have to be able to clearly articulate what you DO want (in specifics) and how to get there. Then you have the option of either pressuring Modi sarkar to implement that, or forming another political party to achieve that, or whatever.

But without a clearly articulated organizing agenda, it's all just noise.

[KLNMurthy]

I have to agree nearly 100% with @Rudradev. That “nearly” is only because I don’t believe there is such a thing as agreeing 100%, because on close examination differences are bound to arise.

Modi sarkar is messing up royally in a great many important sectors. However, all the current rage against Modi, the threats, warnings of making him lose, etc., are ultimately tantrums—hollow & noisy proclamations of powerfulness by those Hindus who really have no power, or rather, if they had any power, that power is only to dig the hole deeper for Hindus.

Is it necessary for Hindus to articulate a vision? Yes. But it is not sufficient, at least the way the visions are articulated today. “Just bulldoze (so to speak) the BIF” is not a workable vision, if it means you just issue a fatwa to the government to make your dream come true, and then sink deeper into the pit of anger and frustration when that (of course) doesn’t happen.

At the very least, try to study the enemy and work out why and how they are having the amount of success they are. Yes there is Soros & his megabucks. But a pile of money by itself doesn’t get you anything, it takes building up a campaign by spending the money for specific purposes. It takes brains, the application of brains, taking measured risks and so on.

It is in the last department—brains etc.—where we are severely underperforming. Imagine: a faction of loudmouthed, semi-literate airheaded bimbos (of both genders) whose only possible strength is being Anglophone (they are not even that good with English) is beating the pants off us in the brains, scheming and execution department.

If we had unlimited funds today, would that change? Would our side start winning? Or at least stop the losses?

If the answer is yes, all it takes is funds from our own Soros, then there must a business plan with a clear roadmap to victory that is ready for funding. Is there such a plan? Something to discuss, rip apart in the “shark tank?” Please share it then, and if it’s a good plan, we can figure out how to get funding.

If the answer is no, there is no meaningful plan then why not? And also, what exactly is all the noise about then?

Do we not have the ability to generate a plan? Obviously we do, since so many of us run businesses, write research or business proposals & get them funded etc. Those skills are transferable to building “toolkits” for our side.

So it must mean then that what we don’t have is the will, the intent, that India’s enemies bring to their fight.

Without will & intent, I don’t see us, and India, staving off surrender to the BIF and surviving, let alone winning.

[disha]

But without a clearly articulated organizing agenda, it's all just noise.

It's not just noise. It's worse than noise. It comes out as whining!

The only explanation I can give is that all of us are romantic fools, some more romantic than others, and come to hope to write a script here that sets the destination of the nation. The set of storylines and narratives put forward to ensure that a script arrives at some vaguely dreamt pre-defined destiny and the directors at the helm need to put in their effort to ensure that the destiny is served to all aspirations of the scriptwriters here and any deviation of thought or action from the yet-to-be-defined script is a cause to fall in despair.

Something like a bad bollywood movie of the 80s where the wronged hero jumps seven floors, resolves all past issues, wins the girl, unites the family, beats up the villains all under 3 hours. In between the poor hero can afford to have designer gadgets like James bond to outfox all villains.

And since the movie is still going on for more than 3 hours, frustration has set in. Since the villain has not been beaten up yet?

Do not believe me? Here is an example:

International North-South Transport Corridor: Russia sends test consignment to India through Caspian Sea – Iran route avoiding Suez Canal

This is why India needs a corridor to Central Asia via POK and Afghanistan. I hope this will be action soon.

The script and the expected action sequence are already laid out above. Now if the director is not going to make it work, its the fault of the director!

Or maybe the current generation is more into T20 matches and hence a multi-nation test series, each series with at least 13 matches, of all 5 days with multiple nation, let's say 72 nations is incomprehensible to the T20 gen.

A bad over in the above marathon test series or a bad catch will be taken as a defining moment when the entire series and the championship itself lost and the nation will be at the bottom heap of the 72 nations. And this is in the 2nd match, 1st inning of the 13 matches with one of the 72 nations.

Of course, with such odds, any mis-field or lose bowl will result in extreme depression.

But wait, there's more! If the captain decides to change the field order, that itself will result in depression since the captain gave the entire championship away! In the 3rd over of the 1st inning of the 2nd match with the first nation.

Indeed we are great geo-strategic experts.

[disha]

...
If the answer is no, there is no meaningful plan then why not? And also, what exactly is all the noise about then?

Do we not have the ability to generate a plan? Obviously we do, since so many of us run businesses, write research or business proposals & get them funded etc. Those skills are transferable to building “toolkits” for our side.

So it must mean then that what we don’t have is the will, the intent, that India’s enemies bring to their fight.

Without will & intent, I don’t see us, and India, staving off surrender to the BIF and surviving, let alone winning.

KLNM'ji, excellent post. However, I am not as optimistic about the will or the intent part.

In fact, I would also argue that there needs to be patience, empathy, some gratitude, and more importantly humility. None of that exists.

Let me give an example:

1. US Headline news: Inflation Soars in May With Consumer Prices Up 8.6%
2. UK Headline news: UK Is Closing In on Inflation Rate With Double Digits: Eco Week
3. German inflation rate jumps to 7.9% in May
4. French Inflation Hits Another Record, ... Prices jumped 5.8% ... report shows economy shrank 0.2% in first quarter

Wait, India is neither US or UK. Or any of the developed countries in EU. Let's pick something near home:

1. Sri Lanka Inflation Hits a Record 39% as Shortages Persist
2. B'Desh: Inflation rockets to an eight-year high (7.42%)
3. Pakistan Inflation Hits 13.8% in May on Costlier Food, Fuel

Oh wait! Those are basket-case economies. Even though they are in the neighborhood, and two of the three were part of India in past, all three nations have fuel and food shortages. Cannot be compared with India. So, shall we bring in ASEAN countries? Aus? NZ?

India inflation rate: Retail inflation was at 7.04% in May as against 7.79% in April

And as for the greatest nation on earth as per some posters, which could do no wrong:

China: China’s Consumer Confidence Crisis Will Leave Permanent Scars. Lockdowns, unemployment, and a lack of government help have sent sentiment to a record low.

All nations coming out of pandemic are suffering. Added to that is the NATO-Russia war. And no-one here, particularly the whiners came and acknowledged:

The only nation in the world that is faring better coming out of the 2019-20 Wuhan Virus Pandemic and the NATO-Russia war is India

And of course: No thanks to Mr. Mudi.

[chetak]

[ramana]

Any ideas as who the Presidential candidate is from NDA side??

What is more comical is the hasty retreat of potential candidates from the secular, liberal & progressive cabal. Don't know what is making them to keep away from the race. There was also some xyz Gandhi, who I felt could have tried as he had nothing much to lose any ways.

Sachin These worthies think they still have a political future and running for President ends that.

With current alignment of votes it's surefire NDA candidate will win.

[ramana]

RD There are strategic/global factors and tactical/local factors.
NDA in 2004 did not get power due to collapse of TDP in AP and getting ten seats less than Congress.

All elections are tactical. No grand strategy.

[Tanaji]

AM Khan would be a very useful choice.

Looks like Draupadi Murmu will get the nod: tribal plus female plus former governor.

[Vips]

^^ Jaichand Thipsay had also tried to undermine Indian Government's case against Fugitive Scamster Nirav Modi by stating before the court that there is no case against him!!!

Abhay Thipsay, a retired judge who has served in the Bombay and Allahabad high courts, told a London court via video link from India on Wednesday that the charges levelled by the CBI against jeweller Nirav Modi — which include criminal conspiracy, cheating and dishonestly inducting delivery of property — would not stand up under Indian law. "Unless someone is deceived there can be no cheating under Indian law. Deception is an essential ingredient of an offence of cheating. If no one was deceived in issuing LoUs there is no question of a corporate body being deceived. The authority given to officials of the bank to issue LoUs cannot be said to be property and they cannot be said to be entrusted with property and therefore there cannot be a criminal breach of trust," said Thipsay.

Fittingly enough this psuedo a s s h o l e was put in his place by the Judge of the UK court.

UK judge Sam Goozée on Thursday slammed the "evidence" presented by retired judges Abhay Thipsay and Markandey Katju while arguing in favour of scam-accused diamantaire Nirav Modi. Thipsay had claimed that the evidence against Nirav would not meet the criteria of cheating and criminal breach of trust under Indian law.

[Shanmukh]

Not true. There are many books even, which envision a Hindu rashtra. Sure, they have different specific agendas. But, this is no different from the differences between the Communists.

Interesting, and inspires the question of why Hindutva in India utterly failed ~100 years ago, while all manner of Communist, Nationalist, Islamist, and other movements managed to achieve revolutionary change and install their governments of choice in many other countries around the world (including independent nations as well as those in the throes of anti-colonial struggles). For my money, it's because Hindutva at the time could not produce a unitary vision that enough people could be convinced to buy into and act upon. Blaming Gandhi/Nehru in retrospect is little different from kvetching about Modi today... nobody voluntarily relinquishes power unless they are compelled to, by constitutional means or otherwise.

The difference is that the Communists, Nationalists, and Islamists all came to power through *VIOLENT* means. They clearly specified that they didn't ever intend to ask the people the right to rule, once they got power. Did the Russian or Chinese communists, or the various Arab nationalists, or Iranian Islamists EVER ask anyone the right to rule, AFTER they got power? Hindutva never did that. Hindutva always intended to win through electoral arena. It was to be, so to speak, a peaceful transition. This is a vital difference. Assume for a moment that Vajpayee had not come to power through elections in 1998, but had come to power by a militant movement that didn't ever intend to give up power, or hold any elections again. Hindutva would have been far more transformative. Peaceful means can never be as quick or ever as transformative. If the Communists had held elections in 1922 in Russia or 1965 in China, they would have been wiped out.

Communism/Islamism/Nationalism - all these don't care about their own followers, other than to throw them a crumb now and then. They are essentially totalitarian movements that intend to grab power by brute force and keep it by brute force. They inflict massive misery on both their followers and their enemies, but are careful enough never to take that last step that will produce a massive violent uprising that makes their rule untenable.

Hindutva never wanted to do that. I have read multiple Hindutva theses and have never come across anyone advocating take over of the state by violent means. No one has ever denounced democracy itself as a farce, as the Communists and the Islamists do. Hindutva is concerned about the well-being of the Hindus. This makes things radically different.

The closest that Hindutva - of whatever sort - got to this was in 1947. Muslims were being driven out en masse through violence and even Nehru and Patel [which neither wished to do, BTW] were being forced to make concession after concession to Hindus. Then the death of Gandhi took the wind out of the movement. But that is a different point.

My question stands. You have stated (I assume) that you favour the type of Hindu Rashtra articulated by Abhas Chatterjee, fine. Now how many others on this forum know exactly what that is, can articulate it, and agree with you on the particulars? I myself have not read Chatterjee's book-- does he define an end goal as well as suggest a roadmap to get there?

I don't specifically prefer the Hindu rashtra of Abhas Chatterjee. His vision is what he calls `Hindu first', i.e., Hindus have the first right on the resources of this country. I merely mentioned him on the intellectual construction of a Hindu rashtra. He wanted such a one.

Golwalkar is of little more than academic interest at this point. A blueprint for Hindu Rashtra conceived in the 1930s, even a comprehensive one, would need an extensive overhaul to be applicable in the present day. Any takers?

I am not so sure. Marx wrote his theories in the 1850s-1880s, as I recall. His theories were implemented in China in the late 1940s. Golwalkar also wrote well into the 1960s, if I am not wrong. So, the vision can be implemented, with some change, I guess, just as Communism was implemented in China in the 1950s.

Vajpayee was wiped out, in large part, because a great mass of voters could be convinced that he had run a "suit-boot sarkar" that left them behind. It was a precarious time for many, with the aftershocks of liberalization still reverberating through the electorate, and the benefits of having unraveled the ancien mai-baap sarkar far from obvious to all.

The engineered food shortages of 2003-4, set against the visible signs of great prosperity for a privileged few and the perception of corrupt manipulation with the tacit blessings of the ruling class (Jain Hawala scam, etc.) -- all this created the impression of unbearable economic injustice that the opposition capitalized on. Remember that the 2004 LS was the high water mark for the Marxist Left in terms of electoral victories in independent India-- their participation was indispensable to the UPA I government.

Did the absconding of core Hindutvavadis also play a role in Vajpayee's 2004 loss? Sure. But even if Vajpayee sarkar had been a lot more 'kattar Hindutvavadi', would the enthusiastic support of the Hindutvavadi constituency have been enough to secure his re-election? I very much doubt it.

Let us unravel this a bit - I think this is too broad a point you are making. India is practically a continent, so what happens in one place does not always affect others. This is our great strength and our greatest weakness - to the point that the Congress could sacrifice Bengal, Punjab and Sindh in partitions and still win. Same for BJP in 2004. The main anger of the Hindutva voters was confined to UP in 2004.

NDA got 40.7% of the vote in 1999, and BJP itself got 23.8% of the vote. The turnout was 60%.
NDA got 36.5% of the vote in 2004, and BJP itself got 22.2% of the vote. The turnout was 58%.

The bulk of the losses suffered by the BJP was in a) Bihar b) Bengal c) Andhra Pradesh and d) UP - the first three were lost due to loss of support among the BJP allies, not the BJP itself. BJP barely even existed in Bengal or [united] Andhra. The latter was lost due to BJP's loss of Hindutva credentials.

Given that the vote difference between 1999 and 2004 for the BJP was a measly 2% [BJP contested more seats in 2004, compared to 1999, so the equalised difference is ~2%], and the turnout was 2% lower, so the BJP lost a rough vote of 3.5%. Most of this loss was in the above mentioned states. However, the devil is in the detail. The main fall for BJP was in UP - where the voter participation fell by a massive 5.2%. The bulk of this no-show vote was the Hindutva vote - where Vajpayee throwing the Kar Sevaks in prison was seen as a gross betrayal. If BJP had got the 5.2% additional vote in UP, they would have netted ~25-30 more seats. This would have meant BJP getting to ~165 seats, which is similar to the 182 seats which BJP got in 1999.

The UPA had 225 seats, and the NDA 189 in 2004. Now check up the NDA by 30 seats, and the UPA down by 10 seats. So, what this means is that - yes, it was the Hindutva vote that precluded a third term for Vajpayee [ignoring the 12 day sarkar he led in 1996].

Looking at the 2019 votes, [just] BJP won 40 seats by <5% votes. And BJP is going to take losses in Maharashtra, Punjab, and Bihar this time, given how the opponents are ganging up, or allies leaving, or both. Even a segment of the Hindutva vote going away would kill Modi. Essentially, we are looking at 60 seats less in 2024 for just the BJP, if just 5% of the vote [or roughly, 1 in 4 of the Hindutva voters] goes away.

Now, do I advocate Hindus leaving the BJP to die? Certainly not! But it is important to keep things in perspective and not ignore Hindutva. It is what sustains BJP.

[Shanmukh]

Is it necessary for Hindus to articulate a vision? Yes. But it is not sufficient, at least the way the visions are articulated today. “Just bulldoze (so to speak) the BIF” is not a workable vision, if it means you just issue a fatwa to the government to make your dream come true, and then sink deeper into the pit of anger and frustration when that (of course) doesn’t happen.

Before you start on this, consider what the vision of the Modi government itself is. Modi sarkar started the second term on a very strong Hindutva note. They did away with Art. 370, got Ayodhya, pushed CAA through, etc. After the beginning of 2020, when the pandemic struck, they have retreated, and from 2021 onwards, they have been in full retreat, making one concession after another. So, what changed between the end of 2019 and 2021? I can think of only one major change - the rise of the Biden sarkar. So, after the rise of Biden sarkar, Modi government has decided, for whatever reasons, that they should appease the enemies of Hindutva. Now, we don't know the exact reasons for this, and I suspect, we are not likely to find out either. My guess-they consider Hindutva to be done something as and when occasion offers. They are not going to bet the kingdom on this. They think they can keep the Hindutvavadis in their fold. How are they doing it? By giving the state governments clearance to go ahead with the Hindutvavadi schemes. So, in Assam, they allow Himanta to kick out the squatters on temple and sattra lands, in Bengal, they allow Suvendu to go ahead and lead protests against the Bangladeshis, including the Bangladeshi high commission in Calcutta, in TN, they allow Annamalai to take on Hindu temple issues, in Gujarat, they allow the government to try to start taking over the management of the minority institutions, in UP, they bring out bulldozers and level the homes of the Jihadis, and in Karnataka, they allow the government to ban hijabs and push through a very strong anti-conversion law. Now, what is the end result? BJP's state governments are going to be in favour of the Hindutvavadis. We see all this yelping against Modi from the Hindu side. How much anger are you seeing against Annamalai, or Himanta, or Suvendu, or Bommai, or Yogi? Very little right? So, Modi sarkar has decided that the risks should be taken by the state government, while the centre looks to be more `secular'. They believe - rightly or wrongly, I don't know - that Modi's image can take the battering and still not lose the Hindutva vote.

I will add a funny aside. Even Aurangzeb didn't bet his kingdom on the Islamist agenda. While he was demolishing temples in the north and converting huge numbers of Hindus, he was sucking up to southern rulers, sending them great gifts, even sending some temples lands and gifts. He was also an opportunistic Jihadi. He was not a Telebunny who would destroy the Bamiyan Buddhas amidst international opprobrium.

At the very least, try to study the enemy and work out why and how they are having the amount of success they are. Yes there is Soros & his megabucks. But a pile of money by itself doesn’t get you anything, it takes building up a campaign by spending the money for specific purposes. It takes brains, the application of brains, taking measured risks and so on.

It is in the last department—brains etc.—where we are severely underperforming. Imagine: a faction of loudmouthed, semi-literate airheaded bimbos (of both genders) whose only possible strength is being Anglophone (they are not even that good with English) is beating the pants off us in the brains, scheming and execution department.

I think you are mistaking the power of Soros. It is not money - or rather, not just money. It is the ecosystem he has built up IN THE US and UK. He can use this ecosystem to gain leverage in the Indian government. For instance, he is getting many governments in India to make concessions to the LGBTQ crowd. How much support exists on the ground for them? But the power of the US ecosystem speaks. For the Jihadis, it is the Gulf and Bangladesh governments - that is their basis of power. The power base of the anti-Hindus is not in India at all. If it is just the Jihadis or EJs in India, they can be levelled in no time. But their main power centres are beyond our reach. So, any war will be fought on our territory, and the destruction will be suffered in India. Now, the anti-Hindu forces have seen this, and they are determined to bring destruction to India, no matter what. They believe that, as long as their violence does not go too far, their west Asian, American and British backers will save them from utter ruin. Sure, the odd Jihadi may be jailed, the odd home demolished. But the government is not going full tilt after them - see how Modi sarkar is not banning even the PFI or FCRA, despite huge pressure from their Hindu base. Therefore, the assumption of the anti-Hindus seems to be justified, for now, and Modi sarkar needs to evaluate a strategy to deal with this.

If we had unlimited funds today, would that change? Would our side start winning? Or at least stop the losses?

If the answer is yes, all it takes is funds from our own Soros, then there must a business plan with a clear roadmap to victory that is ready for funding. Is there such a plan? Something to discuss, rip apart in the “shark tank?” Please share it then, and if it’s a good plan, we can figure out how to get funding.

If the answer is no, there is no meaningful plan then why not? And also, what exactly is all the noise about then?

Do we not have the ability to generate a plan? Obviously we do, since so many of us run businesses, write research or business proposals & get them funded etc. Those skills are transferable to building “toolkits” for our side.

So it must mean then that what we don’t have is the will, the intent, that India’s enemies bring to their fight.

Without will & intent, I don’t see us, and India, staving off surrender to the BIF and surviving, let alone winning.

One of the main misunderstandings made by the Hindu side is that all it takes are laws to control the anti-Hindu side. It is not. If it were, the EJs and Jihadis would never have grown this big. There are dozens of anti-conversion laws in India, even in NE, BTW. How many are effective? If bans are effective, why are there still Khalistani and Jihadi organisations? The obvious answer is - the bans, by themselves, are not effective. It is not so easy to `cancel' the anti-Hindu forces.

We need a street level infantry - and here I do blame Modi for destroying VHP and Bajrang Dal in his internal fight against his opponents in the Sangh parivar. This is needed to take on the Jihadis and EJs. There will be some amount of violence and we need to learn to tolerate this. But with state governments in our hands, and other street level infantry doing the dirty work, a good chunk of the EJ and Jihadi power can be dialled down. However, creation of this street level infantry needs to be done fast and it takes time.

This is one reason why I have been a proponent of getting power at the lower levels, especially in the states, and then using that power to help Hindus around. It is easier to do it at lower levels, where local issues can be solved. The centre will be a consequence of the state power. See how no one is able to challenge Yogi or Himanta in their states. I am hopeful that Bommai will win in 2023 - he has been a decent CM, pro-Hindu and most importantly, listens to people, unlike the RSS itself [they are very insular and filled with their own rectitude], The change has to be done, one by one, in the states. The EJs and Jihadis didn't get here in a day. We won't get to our goal in a day either.

[Shanmukh]

BTW, Murthy-garu and Rudradev-acharya,
If you both are interested, we can write up a few proposals I have in mind to different state governments. Do let me know if you are - we can take this elsewhere and discuss.

[ShauryaT]

RD: A few pointers from my perspective. The definite set of guidelines, codes, laws, conventions, evolutions for the "definitions" of Hindu Rashtra are well codified for 1000's of years. These ideas are at the end of the day codified as laws and these exist in spades in our dharma smritis and dharma shastras. These shastras have evolved through the ages and a compilation of the 26 most widely used/available has been done by PV Kane from BORI Pune. This is a translation not an interpreted take. Furthermore, our puraans and itihaasas document what is called as the "soft" constitution. IOW: These codified laws set in action.

It is not that the ideas need to be invented, understood or propagated. They are there. What is needed is a "current" evolution of these extremely well documented ideas WITHOUT being deracinated or being reactionary to western ideas. This is where I think the failures are. Golwalkar and certainly Savarkar were largely in reactionary modes. I have read some claiming that the document written by (credited) to Ambedkar, the constitution should be treated as a Smriti, but that is a cop out as it does not keep the core principles of Dharma as its guidance markers or pursue its objectives.

What is needed is someone (and I have not seen it yet) to rise up to the challenge of making the core principles embedded in the Vedas, smritis, puraans to work with the tools and structures of todays world. The first step in doing so, IMO, is to accept the challenge that our ideas, tools, methods and objectives are indeed different and in many cases in stark contrast to the evolutions of the west. Our elite have to learn these ideas as it is lost to them. Our elite (so called founding fathers) in the constituent assembly were filled with 70% of them trained in English law. The resulting document we received is more of the same. No surprise. What is needed IMO is a trained elite, immersed in the doctrines of Dharma. The RSS, and I have a lot of respect for them has chosen to focus on the "practical" aspects at the expense of the ideological. They are IMO, the best placed organizationally today to lead such an ideological transformation as they also have the masses and organization structure to put these ideas to action.

[Vayutuvan]

https://indianexpress.com/article/expre ... a-7979095/

Now is the time to sustain it before we can scale it and make bigger plans around it

Slashing is not good. I would say slash the praising part but increase the atrocities part or even just talk about their oppression only and talk about the valor of the Kshatriyas who stood against the invading hoards.