Exactly! Support to LPR, DPR is part of the reason for SMO continuing but there are other reasons as well. This Kherson offensive is to stall the referendum in Kherson region which is now postponed. Kiev can't explain why Kherson voted overwhelmingly for Russia if the referendum happens. And if ever Kherson stays with Ukraine in the future they will be branded as traitors and néo-nazis will let loose on them, so they have no choice but to stay with Russia.
Zaphoriziye is the land bridge and I'm not sure how pro Russian they are but seeing how easily they fell to Russia their sentiments and fate can't be all that different. Plus there is ZNPP which Russia won't let go of for a bunch of reasons.
Kiev regime is fighting to stay in place, to keep funds flowing in, and knows it can't win over the Russian forces or the people in the occupied territories. They sold out to extra-national interests and their fate is not in their hands.
Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
Like I said before(possibly in the other thread), the referendum is important for Russia. Once the taking of Kherson is legitimized by the referendum Russia can freely recruit more conscripts and free up additional regular forces for frontline duties which will tilt the war in their favour. Ukraine cannot afford it, so this counter-offensive is really the last resort to stall it.Cyrano wrote:Exactly! Support to LPR, DPR is part of the reason for SMO continuing but there are other reasons as well. This Kherson offensive is to stall the referendum in Kherson region which is now postponed. Kiev can't explain why Kherson voted overwhelmingly for Russia if the referendum happens. And if ever Kherson stays with Ukraine in the future they will be branded as traitors and néo-nazis will let loose on them, so they have no choice but to stay with Russia.
Zaphoriziye is the land bridge and I'm not sure how pro Russian they are but seeing how easily they fell to Russia their sentiments and fate can't be all that different. Plus there is ZNPP which Russia won't let go of for a bunch of reasons.
Kiev regime is fighting to stay in place, to keep funds flowing in, and knows it can't win over the Russian forces or the people in the occupied territories. They sold out to extra-national interests and their fate is not in their hands.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
https://twitter.com/rajan_menon_/status ... 0149197827
Gen Valery Zaluzhnyi, C-in-C of Ukraine’s armed forces, revered within his country, has warned of the risk of nuclear escalation in Ukraine. But do you really want to communicate to your most important supporter, the US, that that’s the risk it runs if it continues to arm you?
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
Pretty intense combat footage of some US mercs. One dead and another dies while recording. Interesting that his gun sounds like a little pop corn machine while you can hear other guns that sound like real ones in the background. Is that typical of gopro style cameras?
NSFW : Cussing and end of life
https://t.me/intelslava/36617
NSFW : Cussing and end of life
https://t.me/intelslava/36617
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/ru ... 3a58723dda
Ukraine has re-captured Balakliya near Kharkiv. Confirmed by official Russian sources. Russia sending reinforcements to the region. Ukraine claims they have penetrated 50 Kms from the maximum extent of Russian advance in the region.
Ukraine offensive going on near Kherson in the south and Kharkiv in the north.
Any significant breakthrough by Ukraine, would probably force Russia to mobilise larger forces.
Ukraine has re-captured Balakliya near Kharkiv. Confirmed by official Russian sources. Russia sending reinforcements to the region. Ukraine claims they have penetrated 50 Kms from the maximum extent of Russian advance in the region.
Ukraine offensive going on near Kherson in the south and Kharkiv in the north.
Any significant breakthrough by Ukraine, would probably force Russia to mobilise larger forces.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
Yes, finally Ukra-een has something to show. But these are point incursions by some 9000 troops - division size on a narrow front line. Like walking into jaws, with significant casualties. Russians have mostly evacuated the DPL, LPR troops manning this area with some para and special forces support, suffering few losses.
Let's see how they respond in the coming days...
Let's see how they respond in the coming days...
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
Russian troops withdraw from several settlements in Ukraine – media https://www.rt.com/russia/562551-ukrain ... -kupyansk/
Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigations (SBI) announced on Friday that it had begun conducting a “filtration” of civilians in Balakleya, the town in Kharkov Region reportedly taken by forces of the Kiev government. SBI agents will be checking for those who “may pose a threat to national security,” the agency said.
“The purpose of the measures is to prevent the subversive activities of the Russians and their allies,” the SBI said on social media, adding it would “carefully process information about persons who cooperated with aggressors” and hold “collaborators and traitors strictly accountable.”
“The time of reckoning has come,” the SBI concluded.
Ukraine had charged the town’s mayor with treason in April, accusing him of collaborating with Russian troops and helping them distribute humanitarian aid.
Balakleya is about 90 kilometers (55 miles) southeast of Kharkov, in the Izyum district. The town had around 25,000 residents before the conflict in Ukraine escalated in February. Russian troops took control of it at the end of March, but Kiev claims to have retaken it this week. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky shared a video of a Ukrainian flag flying over the town’s administration on Thursday evening.
Ukrainian counter-offensive had ‘some success’ – Pentagon
Read more Ukrainian counter-offensive had ‘some success’ – Pentagon
Kiev’s announcement of “filtration” comes just days after the US and its allies condemned Russia over its own alleged use of the practice. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians were “forcibly transferred” to Russia through a “vast and punitive” network of detention camps, the US State Department claimed on Wednesday. These claims were then echoed at the UN Security Council by US and Albanian diplomats.
Russia was not conducting “filtration,” Moscow’s envoy to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, replied, but documenting and registering the displaced persons from the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, as well as Ukrainians seeking refuge in territories under Russian control.
“As far as we can tell, Poland and other EU countries are applying the same procedures to Ukrainian refugees, but I’ll let them explain themselves,” he told the Security Council, accusing the Western countries of projection. Nebenzia also pointed out the long stream of Ukrainians voluntarily crossing into Russian-held territory at a checkpoint in Zaporozhye.
Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigations (SBI) announced on Friday that it had begun conducting a “filtration” of civilians in Balakleya, the town in Kharkov Region reportedly taken by forces of the Kiev government. SBI agents will be checking for those who “may pose a threat to national security,” the agency said.
“The purpose of the measures is to prevent the subversive activities of the Russians and their allies,” the SBI said on social media, adding it would “carefully process information about persons who cooperated with aggressors” and hold “collaborators and traitors strictly accountable.”
“The time of reckoning has come,” the SBI concluded.
Ukraine had charged the town’s mayor with treason in April, accusing him of collaborating with Russian troops and helping them distribute humanitarian aid.
Balakleya is about 90 kilometers (55 miles) southeast of Kharkov, in the Izyum district. The town had around 25,000 residents before the conflict in Ukraine escalated in February. Russian troops took control of it at the end of March, but Kiev claims to have retaken it this week. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky shared a video of a Ukrainian flag flying over the town’s administration on Thursday evening.
Ukrainian counter-offensive had ‘some success’ – Pentagon
Read more Ukrainian counter-offensive had ‘some success’ – Pentagon
Kiev’s announcement of “filtration” comes just days after the US and its allies condemned Russia over its own alleged use of the practice. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians were “forcibly transferred” to Russia through a “vast and punitive” network of detention camps, the US State Department claimed on Wednesday. These claims were then echoed at the UN Security Council by US and Albanian diplomats.
Russia was not conducting “filtration,” Moscow’s envoy to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, replied, but documenting and registering the displaced persons from the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, as well as Ukrainians seeking refuge in territories under Russian control.
“As far as we can tell, Poland and other EU countries are applying the same procedures to Ukrainian refugees, but I’ll let them explain themselves,” he told the Security Council, accusing the Western countries of projection. Nebenzia also pointed out the long stream of Ukrainians voluntarily crossing into Russian-held territory at a checkpoint in Zaporozhye.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
Ukr army kms away from Moscow, breakfast in Kremlin Lunch in Petersburg types being tossed all around by west media
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
They have been so starved of any success, they won't pause to consider if this incursion could be an entrapment. If it turns out to be so and they suffer heavy losses they will blame Russians for cunning and deceit.
Coming to Ukrainian filtration - it's more than that. Once they brand someone as a traitor - they will do whatever with them like they have been doing in Donbass for the past 8 years. This is the real price of any Russian withdrawal that no soldiers but local civilans will pay.
And that's why Russian forces must not retreat from any populated areas, cities and towns they capture hereafter. Only one way - Forward until they reach Dneipre river at least.
Coming to Ukrainian filtration - it's more than that. Once they brand someone as a traitor - they will do whatever with them like they have been doing in Donbass for the past 8 years. This is the real price of any Russian withdrawal that no soldiers but local civilans will pay.
And that's why Russian forces must not retreat from any populated areas, cities and towns they capture hereafter. Only one way - Forward until they reach Dneipre river at least.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
The incursions in the Kharkiv Izyum sector have helped brush the severe losses from the Kherson counter offensive under the carpet. The Queen helped as well!
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
https://twitter.com/rajan_menon_/status ... 7862605831
Unconfirmed reports of UKR troops having entered Donetsk airport. Even if so, as UKR dep def min cautioned this morning about reportage re Kharkiv front, that is not equivalent to secure control. But if accurate, still very significant.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
As this war has progressed, the pro-Russia cheerleading squad (which includes myself, honestly) has certainly had its faith put to the test.Cyrano wrote:The incursions in the Kharkiv Izyum sector have helped brush the severe losses from the Kherson counter offensive under the carpet. The Queen helped as well!
I don’t think you’re making up any claims, but your posts over time have begun to exhibit a “Baghdad Bob” quality about them.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
I had to look up that one.
If you mean like ..."Baghdad Bob," now denotes someone who confidently declares what everyone else can see is false -- someone so wrong, it's funny."
Dunno how the coverage is in USA - I rarely read American news anymore, but near me in Europe, thats how the press coverage has been. Initial euphoria when Kherson started, then coverage dropped as Kiev put an info ban and the only give away was the huge traffic of ambulances, even as far as Odessa. Then the WaPo wrote about it. Before any discussion could happen in MSM on Kherson debacle, Kharkiv was started and with these successful incursions EU media is gaga with, Kherson has dropped off the radar. Even Kharkiv/Inzyum coverage, on TV especially is competing with QE2's demise coverage.
So whats Baghdad Bob-ish in that ? Please enlighten us saar...
"...faith put to the test." - only for those who have blind faith that Russia is infallible and the adversary will make zero counter punches or successes. And one such incident is enough to drive then up the trees and have their faith shaken.
If you mean like ..."Baghdad Bob," now denotes someone who confidently declares what everyone else can see is false -- someone so wrong, it's funny."
Dunno how the coverage is in USA - I rarely read American news anymore, but near me in Europe, thats how the press coverage has been. Initial euphoria when Kherson started, then coverage dropped as Kiev put an info ban and the only give away was the huge traffic of ambulances, even as far as Odessa. Then the WaPo wrote about it. Before any discussion could happen in MSM on Kherson debacle, Kharkiv was started and with these successful incursions EU media is gaga with, Kherson has dropped off the radar. Even Kharkiv/Inzyum coverage, on TV especially is competing with QE2's demise coverage.
So whats Baghdad Bob-ish in that ? Please enlighten us saar...
"...faith put to the test." - only for those who have blind faith that Russia is infallible and the adversary will make zero counter punches or successes. And one such incident is enough to drive then up the trees and have their faith shaken.
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manoj_niketa
- BRFite -Trainee
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
[url][/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4l]Listen to Mearsheimer's YouTube lecture "Why is Ukraine the West's Fault?" in 2015, in which he, like Cohen, warned of a war in Ukraine as a result of NATO's attempt to encircle Russia.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
I have got no insight into this war , all from media of different varities but have the feeling if Ruskies AF live upto their past fame , than these are tactical retreat and UAF is taking lots of casualties for these offensive manoeuvrs . There will be counter offensive and may be with the entry of large scale bombardment , eerily missing in these whole conflict . The argument that Ruskies saving their large strategic aerial bombing assets for eventual direct conflict with Nato or US doesn't stand because they are using their precious manpower .Y. Kanan wrote:As this war has progressed, the pro-Russia cheerleading squad (which includes myself, honestly) has certainly had its faith put to the test.Cyrano wrote:The incursions in the Kharkiv Izyum sector have helped brush the severe losses from the Kherson counter offensive under the carpet. The Queen helped as well!
I don’t think you’re making up any claims, but your posts over time have begun to exhibit a “Baghdad Bob” quality about them.
One thing that's in Ukranines favor is the motivation to defend their motherland, which is not in case of expeditionary force like RuAF or say any other force . Same applicable for US too , but they minimize that employing Technological superiority .
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
The overwhelming view of Russian chat sites & bloggers is that yesterday's events were a significant defeat. Probably the biggest Russian defeat since the war began.
Even the most pro- Russia posters say they have been misled by the Kremlin leadership and are shocked by the extent of Ukrainian advances.
The majority view is that if Russia has to win this, they have to drop the fiction of special military operation and fight a total war, as Ukraine is doing.
Even if Russia were to regain the lost territory, this is a big boost to Ukrainian morale and will ensure more supplies from NATO just when NATO looked like having 2nd thoughts. Russia knew that Ukraine would have to launch an offensive by 8th Sept (before the NATO meet), saw the big troop build up east of Kharkiv 2 weeks earlier, which even amateur analysts were talking about, but did nothing.
There is also a failure to use Russia's allies well. DPR/LPR infantry have been left alone, when a lot of Russian forces withdrew after the fall of Lisichansk. Russian forces inside towns, fled leaving intact ammo supplies. Those in the local population that supported Russia and were promised protection have been let down (as it happened outside Kiev in March).
P.S - None of the amateur armchair experts, myself included, saw this coming.
Even the most pro- Russia posters say they have been misled by the Kremlin leadership and are shocked by the extent of Ukrainian advances.
The majority view is that if Russia has to win this, they have to drop the fiction of special military operation and fight a total war, as Ukraine is doing.
Even if Russia were to regain the lost territory, this is a big boost to Ukrainian morale and will ensure more supplies from NATO just when NATO looked like having 2nd thoughts. Russia knew that Ukraine would have to launch an offensive by 8th Sept (before the NATO meet), saw the big troop build up east of Kharkiv 2 weeks earlier, which even amateur analysts were talking about, but did nothing.
There is also a failure to use Russia's allies well. DPR/LPR infantry have been left alone, when a lot of Russian forces withdrew after the fall of Lisichansk. Russian forces inside towns, fled leaving intact ammo supplies. Those in the local population that supported Russia and were promised protection have been let down (as it happened outside Kiev in March).
P.S - None of the amateur armchair experts, myself included, saw this coming.
Last edited by Deans on 11 Sep 2022 11:00, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
Really Deans dont sell yourself short…
Leadership, motivation, and well trained infantry in qty always matter.
A lot of what you have posted lead me to believe something like this was entirely possible. As much as I want Russia to win militarily the RU army has been found wanting. I started this thread to understand combat tactics and strategy of both the opposing sides and juxtaposing this againt accepted wisdom from my readings and learnings from veterans and so this is not a surprise.P.S - None of the amateur armchair experts, myself included, saw this coming.
Leadership, motivation, and well trained infantry in qty always matter.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
Russian forces have moved out of Izyum. White flags were raised at some locations in Izyum and then all the Russian forces withdrew from the city, rather than resort to street to street fighting. Russian spokesman painting it as a tactical retreat and given the circumstances the right thing to do.
Ukraine claims to have recovered upto 2,500 sq kms of territory.
Certainly a big defeat for Russia on the Kharkiv front. Will be interesting to see how the things pan out further in the days to come. If Russian forces retreat further or crumple in face of the offensive, things will get difficult for the Russians.
Ukraine claims to have recovered upto 2,500 sq kms of territory.
Certainly a big defeat for Russia on the Kharkiv front. Will be interesting to see how the things pan out further in the days to come. If Russian forces retreat further or crumple in face of the offensive, things will get difficult for the Russians.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
ks_sachin wrote:Really Deans dont sell yourself short…
A lot of what you have posted lead me to believe something like this was entirely possible. As much as I want Russia to win militarily the RU army has been found wanting. I started this thread to understand combat tactics and strategy of both the opposing sides and juxtaposing this againt accepted wisdom from my readings and learnings from veterans and so this is not a surprise.P.S - None of the amateur armchair experts, myself included, saw this coming.
Leadership, motivation, and well trained infantry in qty always matter.
We can only presume that the whole of the Russian army is professional and well trained., it could be that some or a lot of it is not what we expected them to be ., but again assumptions. War is fluid., gains got can be pyrrhic. Uke has the whole of NATO backing them with real time information and minutely managed despite pictures of baniansky sitting around somewhere with the uniforms.
Roos does need to get its act together and bring in some offensive power hard and fast., if they cant then resort to tactical nukes, which will bring down the roof for Europe.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
There were 3 kinds of Russian units involved in the fighting.kit wrote:
We can only presume that the whole of the Russian army is professional and well trained.,
- Luhansk people's militia. These were older semi trained conscripts (not veterans of the 2014-15 fighting). They were there as a screen for
a quiet sector of the front but took the full force of the Ukrainian attack (2 battalions of militia vs. 3 Ukrainian brigades).
- Russian national guard (equivalent of our BSF/CRPF). They did put up a good fight in urban combat in Baklevya and were successfully evacuated
by a airborne infantry unit which broke into their encirclement.
- Regular Russian army. They failed to even slow down the advance (with ATGM's or mines as Ukraine as done) or launch what analysts thought would be a counter attack against an extended Ukrainian force out of range of its artillery. There was supposed to be a Guards Tank division in the area. There's no clarity on its location and what it did. Airborne forces landed by helicopter, to plug the most dangerous gaps in the front.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
very wierd action by RU army. There was ample notice on SM about an impending attack. It is quite shocking that they let go of so many hard fought territory. I am in the wait and watch mode now , but i really feel concerned about the civs.
Still do not understand Russia's disinterest in hitting Ukr supply lines come in from europe. take out bridges / tunnels should be a priority and quite frustrating to see them fight with one hand and two legs tied up.
but foe me, it is wait n watch.
Still do not understand Russia's disinterest in hitting Ukr supply lines come in from europe. take out bridges / tunnels should be a priority and quite frustrating to see them fight with one hand and two legs tied up.
but foe me, it is wait n watch.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
Russians (D&LPR militias, NG, regular forces) were until now in offensive formations, razing everything ahead with long range artillery and then the troops moving in to clear and secure. In so doing, they destroyed the defensive structures and trenches the Ukrainians built over many years to a large extent.
In the face of a counter offensive by Ukr, they have to reorganise as a defensive force now with a different troop mix, equipment and tactics, without the familiar defensive structures the Ukrainians had.
Why Russia chose to do precious little when this offensive was widely talked about for over 2 weeks now is strange. Could be disbelief, goof up, officer incompetence, Moscow distracted or a combination of these.
But what they have done since is minimise losses and evacuate, preferring saving troops over terrain occupation. Which I think is the right response given the situation they were in. The troops they had facing the Ukr attack were incapable of defending and pushing back the attackers.
Russia has slowed down the pace of the operation since a month now, for non military reasons. This has given NATO/UKR time to plan and launch counters. Kherson counter was superbly defeated by the Russians, because they prepared for it. In the Kherson/Izyum region we are seeing the results of the opposite.
For AFU, the question now is what next? Their incursions are over 60 kms long now, and they need to be supported logistically and with fire power. What can they do here that they could not do at Kherson??
In the face of a counter offensive by Ukr, they have to reorganise as a defensive force now with a different troop mix, equipment and tactics, without the familiar defensive structures the Ukrainians had.
Why Russia chose to do precious little when this offensive was widely talked about for over 2 weeks now is strange. Could be disbelief, goof up, officer incompetence, Moscow distracted or a combination of these.
But what they have done since is minimise losses and evacuate, preferring saving troops over terrain occupation. Which I think is the right response given the situation they were in. The troops they had facing the Ukr attack were incapable of defending and pushing back the attackers.
Russia has slowed down the pace of the operation since a month now, for non military reasons. This has given NATO/UKR time to plan and launch counters. Kherson counter was superbly defeated by the Russians, because they prepared for it. In the Kherson/Izyum region we are seeing the results of the opposite.
For AFU, the question now is what next? Their incursions are over 60 kms long now, and they need to be supported logistically and with fire power. What can they do here that they could not do at Kherson??
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
Kit,kit wrote:ks_sachin wrote:Really Deans dont sell yourself short…
A lot of what you have posted lead me to believe something like this was entirely possible. As much as I want Russia to win militarily the RU army has been found wanting. I started this thread to understand combat tactics and strategy of both the opposing sides and juxtaposing this againt accepted wisdom from my readings and learnings from veterans and so this is not a surprise.
Leadership, motivation, and well trained infantry in qty always matter.
We can only presume that the whole of the Russian army is professional and well trained., it could be that some or a lot of it is not what we expected them to be ., but again assumptions. War is fluid., gains got can be pyrrhic. Uke has the whole of NATO backing them with real time information and minutely managed despite pictures of baniansky sitting around somewhere with the uniforms.
Roos does need to get its act together and bring in some offensive power hard and fast., if they cant then resort to tactical nukes, which will bring down the roof for Europe.
The problem is that it is not. The pool of professional soldiers is small. Take away the nuke equation and the Russian army ceases to be a huge threat and in my eyes ceased to be a threat after the collapse of the USSR.
There is high proportion of conscripts.
Leadership is structures are not the greatest. Soldiering is not a popular profession.
See Deans posts on manpower issues. The structure of BTGs makes them sturucturally unsound for the kind of warfare we are seeing.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
How many armies in the world today have reserves/conscripts who have been in 6 months of intense mostly offensive battles with combined corps ? If these soldiers have survived the reality of battle, even if they were mediocre to start with, they will be pretty seasoned now, isn't it ?
However I agree, if Russia wants to go further they need more and experienced troops. Because Ukr has lost a lot of conscripts and militias but their main army is very much there, and they have also gained experience against the Russians.
There seems to be some strategy vaccum right now on the Russian side - allowing AFU the time to reequip and reinforce. Which will need an even bigger and better Russian force to defeat.
However I agree, if Russia wants to go further they need more and experienced troops. Because Ukr has lost a lot of conscripts and militias but their main army is very much there, and they have also gained experience against the Russians.
There seems to be some strategy vaccum right now on the Russian side - allowing AFU the time to reequip and reinforce. Which will need an even bigger and better Russian force to defeat.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
can't Russia use a tactical nuke to shock opponents? Their strategy was to buy time and hold the gains till winter arrives but they have lost the plot. what next? Is Putin even in knowhow?
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
Using nuclear weapons, tactical or not, will make the entire world more dangerous and unstable. It will have repurcussions that we can't fully predict. I hope that the Russians have more sense than going down that road.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
The big problem will be the LPR/DPR militia and the local population. If regular Russian forces start crumbling, the militias and the local population will get anxious.
The Russians can retreat further, but if they start loosing hard fought territory in the Donbas, then the locals and the militias will have to face the brunt of the reprisals.
Then self preservation might become upper most in their minds, rather than counter offensive in the face of a determined and well supplied force.
The Russians can retreat further, but if they start loosing hard fought territory in the Donbas, then the locals and the militias will have to face the brunt of the reprisals.
Then self preservation might become upper most in their minds, rather than counter offensive in the face of a determined and well supplied force.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
The big problem will be the LPR/DPR militia and the local population. If regular Russian forces start crumbling, the militias and the local population will get anxious.
The Russians can retreat further, but if they start loosing hard fought territory in the Donbas, then the locals and the militias will have to face the brunt of the reprisals.
Then self preservation might become upper most in their minds, rather than counter offensive in the face of a determined and well supplied enemy force.
The Russians can retreat further, but if they start loosing hard fought territory in the Donbas, then the locals and the militias will have to face the brunt of the reprisals.
Then self preservation might become upper most in their minds, rather than counter offensive in the face of a determined and well supplied enemy force.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
Ruskies have manpower issue . That's a fact . Mass aerial bombardment is missing . Artillery have their own limitations if infantry ( again manpower ) can't give enough buffer from enemy . Maybe start of gravity bombs .
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
Rumours a official declaration of war in matter of 30 days, this means partial or general mobilization and quicker completion of the Russian objectives: demilitarization and denazification inside all the territory of the former #Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/Russ_Warrior/status ... vRao8W0DGA
This might be inevitable as Russia is far superior to Kiev in all fields, setbacks like Kharkov region are only caused by lack of infantry, but to increase the number of troops deployed you need conscripts, special forces and volunteers are not enough to complete the job.
https://twitter.com/Russ_Warrior/status ... vRao8W0DGA
https://twitter.com/Russ_Warrior/status ... vRao8W0DGA
This might be inevitable as Russia is far superior to Kiev in all fields, setbacks like Kharkov region are only caused by lack of infantry, but to increase the number of troops deployed you need conscripts, special forces and volunteers are not enough to complete the job.
https://twitter.com/Russ_Warrior/status ... vRao8W0DGA
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
This is starting to look more and more like the Russian invasion of Finland in 1940, except that the Ukrainians are not outnumbered 3-1 as the Finns were (rather, it's the opposite with the Ukies enjoying 3-1 manpower superiority as well as enjoying a vast technological edge which the Finns did not possess in 1939-1940).
But the pattern of the war is eerily similar: you have the Russians launching an invasion and running into massive problems, taking unexpected losses, and failing to meet their initial objectives. Then you have the Ukrainians counterattacking as the Finns did, with the Russians ultimately regrouping, martialing their manpower and resources, and finally overwhelming their opponent with numbers and firepower.
This worked for Stalin in 1940, but the Russians simply don't have the manpower or combat power to pull this off today. Nor do they have the necessary industrial capacity to rapidly build up an overwhelming military force, even if they go to a "war economy".
Russia cannot win without resorting to the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Ukraine could be smart and simply agree to give up Donbas in exchange for Russia withdrawing from all the other territory they've taken elsewhere. IOW return to pre-war boundaries except Russia keeps ALL of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Russia would likely agree to this, as they don't necessarily have to maintain a land link to Crimea. After all, they've still got that nice new Kerch Bridge they built back in 2016. As for the water supply issue, they could always go for desalinization. Sure it's expensive but not as expensive as launching a massive war that destroys your military and your economy.
But the pattern of the war is eerily similar: you have the Russians launching an invasion and running into massive problems, taking unexpected losses, and failing to meet their initial objectives. Then you have the Ukrainians counterattacking as the Finns did, with the Russians ultimately regrouping, martialing their manpower and resources, and finally overwhelming their opponent with numbers and firepower.
This worked for Stalin in 1940, but the Russians simply don't have the manpower or combat power to pull this off today. Nor do they have the necessary industrial capacity to rapidly build up an overwhelming military force, even if they go to a "war economy".
Russia cannot win without resorting to the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Ukraine could be smart and simply agree to give up Donbas in exchange for Russia withdrawing from all the other territory they've taken elsewhere. IOW return to pre-war boundaries except Russia keeps ALL of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Russia would likely agree to this, as they don't necessarily have to maintain a land link to Crimea. After all, they've still got that nice new Kerch Bridge they built back in 2016. As for the water supply issue, they could always go for desalinization. Sure it's expensive but not as expensive as launching a massive war that destroys your military and your economy.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
The bigger problem is that, given finite manpower resources, when you try to plug one hole then you leave other holes vulnerable to exploitation. That is why once you have captured territory then prudence dictates that you ensure that you don't regress from that position unless absolutely essential. In this case the absolute essential retreat seems to have happened due to a high level of ham-handidness.mody wrote:The big problem will be the LPR/DPR militia and the local population. If regular Russian forces start crumbling, the militias and the local population will get anxious.
The Russians can retreat further, but if they start loosing hard fought territory in the Donbas, then the locals and the militias will have to face the brunt of the reprisals.
Then self preservation might become upper most in their minds, rather than counter offensive in the face of a determined and well supplied enemy force.
Unless the Russians use nukes or somesuch seems like Afgnahistan redux - broadly speaking.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
https://twitter.com/rajan_menon_/status ... 7551568896
Russian response to recent rout seems to be attacks on UKR electricity gird, power plants, waterworks, and other essential services.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
A decisive factor in wars like this is the will to fight.
Russia assumed what US assumed about Iraq - that the population will welcome them as liberators. That did not happen (except in Donbass).
Ukrainian units, even those newly mobilized, are not breaking, even under sustained artillery fire. Russia is making things more difficult by believing their own claims of Ukrainian casualties. There are units which Russia claims have suffered casualties of 200% of their strength, but are still not giving up any ground in sectors they are defending. For the past month Russia has claimed it has `almost liberated' Peski, which is little more than a village and where the defending unit has supposedly been wiped out twice.
Russia has also not prepared its population for this war. It is only now - after setbacks in Kharkov, constant shelling of Belgorod district, sabotage in Crimea and assassinations in Donbass and Russia, that Russians are realising that they are fighting an existentialist war against NATO. Unlike Stalin in 1941, Putin is more concerned about maintaining the standard of living of his people (after the Oligarchs and he have siphoned off billions), rather than demand that they make the sacrifices necessary to win this war (he needs to start by calling it a war). I think NATO may have made his job easier by now suggesting that this conflict will end will the unconditional surrender of Russia.
Russia assumed what US assumed about Iraq - that the population will welcome them as liberators. That did not happen (except in Donbass).
Ukrainian units, even those newly mobilized, are not breaking, even under sustained artillery fire. Russia is making things more difficult by believing their own claims of Ukrainian casualties. There are units which Russia claims have suffered casualties of 200% of their strength, but are still not giving up any ground in sectors they are defending. For the past month Russia has claimed it has `almost liberated' Peski, which is little more than a village and where the defending unit has supposedly been wiped out twice.
Russia has also not prepared its population for this war. It is only now - after setbacks in Kharkov, constant shelling of Belgorod district, sabotage in Crimea and assassinations in Donbass and Russia, that Russians are realising that they are fighting an existentialist war against NATO. Unlike Stalin in 1941, Putin is more concerned about maintaining the standard of living of his people (after the Oligarchs and he have siphoned off billions), rather than demand that they make the sacrifices necessary to win this war (he needs to start by calling it a war). I think NATO may have made his job easier by now suggesting that this conflict will end will the unconditional surrender of Russia.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
Russian forces withdraw from a few villages and small towns of occupied territory - not their own land - and Ukr & NATO are already calling for unconditional surrender of "Russia"?!! I mean chumma kuch bhi C grade bolly-tollywood movie dialog style eh?
Russia might be deluding itself by its own estimates of Ukr casualties, but by and large their statements were close to reality. Otoh, we have seen how much Ukr side has lied, fabricated sometimes with blatant stupidity.
Ultimately the side that refuses most to see reality for what it is will pay the most price. Right now Ukr is far ahead on this scale.
Russia might be deluding itself by its own estimates of Ukr casualties, but by and large their statements were close to reality. Otoh, we have seen how much Ukr side has lied, fabricated sometimes with blatant stupidity.
Ultimately the side that refuses most to see reality for what it is will pay the most price. Right now Ukr is far ahead on this scale.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
The big problem for Russia is the lack of man power and the kind of man power that has employed for the war.
There are too many disparate forces.
1). Regular Russian troops.
2). Poorly trained conscripts
3). Russian special forces
4). Wagner group mercenaries
5). Chechen mercenaries
6). LPR/DPR militia.
I don't know about the cohesiveness of the command structure of all the above. How can any commander coordinate the efforts of all of these different groups, with different levels of training and even more importantly different levels of motivation and the will to fight.
Compare this to other large professionally trained armed forces like Indias or the US and the picture will be different.
If there are major setbacks, then I am sure the motivation and the will to fight of all the different man power groups that Russia is employing, will certainly not be on the same page. Same as how a lot of the foreign mercenaries are leaving the fight on the Ukraine side.
Compare this to the Indian military, where the will to fight for the flag and defend the motherland will be very high amongst all the rank and file. All the commanders would be sure of the kind of training and skills that the men under their command possess and the kind of tasks that they can carry out.
There are too many disparate forces.
1). Regular Russian troops.
2). Poorly trained conscripts
3). Russian special forces
4). Wagner group mercenaries
5). Chechen mercenaries
6). LPR/DPR militia.
I don't know about the cohesiveness of the command structure of all the above. How can any commander coordinate the efforts of all of these different groups, with different levels of training and even more importantly different levels of motivation and the will to fight.
Compare this to other large professionally trained armed forces like Indias or the US and the picture will be different.
If there are major setbacks, then I am sure the motivation and the will to fight of all the different man power groups that Russia is employing, will certainly not be on the same page. Same as how a lot of the foreign mercenaries are leaving the fight on the Ukraine side.
Compare this to the Indian military, where the will to fight for the flag and defend the motherland will be very high amongst all the rank and file. All the commanders would be sure of the kind of training and skills that the men under their command possess and the kind of tasks that they can carry out.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
Like I’ve been saying for months (and dismissed each time), I don’t see how Russia can achieve victory without resorting to the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
I believe if Russia had concentrated its full might on just the liberation of Donbas and securing the Crimea land bridge/water supply, it could have succeeded but at great cost. But we all know that didn’t happen. They squandered their combat power on foolish and ill-conceived goals, and now there’s no way to win without nukes.
Basically we’re going to see Russia eventually just accepting defeat in this thing, withdrawing to prewar borders or perhaps even losing Donbas, too, or we’re going to see them using tactical nukes.
I don’t see any other realistic scenario at this point. Even if the entire country rallies in a patriotic fervor, it would take far too long to show results on the front. How do they not go nuclear?
I believe if Russia had concentrated its full might on just the liberation of Donbas and securing the Crimea land bridge/water supply, it could have succeeded but at great cost. But we all know that didn’t happen. They squandered their combat power on foolish and ill-conceived goals, and now there’s no way to win without nukes.
Basically we’re going to see Russia eventually just accepting defeat in this thing, withdrawing to prewar borders or perhaps even losing Donbas, too, or we’re going to see them using tactical nukes.
I don’t see any other realistic scenario at this point. Even if the entire country rallies in a patriotic fervor, it would take far too long to show results on the front. How do they not go nuclear?
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
Russia must not play these cat and mouse games or commit avoidable tactical errors like the recent ones resulting in ceding back occupied territory. Because those who will bear the brunt of it are the Russophone people whose protection was no-contact the reason for invasion in the first place:
Ukro nazies are going berserk on them out of hatred. A mini genocide is going to happen, and this time Russia will also be responsible for letting it happen.
Russia should stop fcuking around and apply required force on Kiev to get this SMO to conclusion.
Ukro nazies are going berserk on them out of hatred. A mini genocide is going to happen, and this time Russia will also be responsible for letting it happen.
Ukr militias are posting hate videos already in Izyum etc they will soon be posting hate crime videos made on Donbass victims.
The horror began
https://t.me/ramzayiegokomanda/764
"I communicated with a woman from Izyum. Her sister remained in the city under the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Husband paralyzed. Shivers from the story! After the entry of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, complete chaos began. Total searches, terrible looting, murders. The "Westerners" (Western Ukrainian Banderites - ZradaXXII) arrived. They openly say that you are all Muscovites and scum for us here. There will be no mercy for you. For three months you lived soul to soul with the Russians, which means that everyone is a connoisseur and now you are nobody! They take everything they like - TVs, smartphones, household appliances, food. A bunch of people were arrested and taken away. Several people were simply shot on the spot, those who tried to interfere with looting. They say that everyone who tries to pay in rubles in stores will immediately be put up against the wall and shot dead. We asked where to get the hryvnia - the answer is: "Suck! Now this is your main work!" "Vigilantes" came out - those who were sitting waiting for their arrival. Now they frankly settle scores with those with whom they quarreled. They simply accuse them of collaborating with the Russians and people are taken away. Most likely to be shot. The city is simply paralyzed with horror. Now we are nothing at all! She cries all the time."
Russia should stop fcuking around and apply required force on Kiev to get this SMO to conclusion.
Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy
Maybe Russia did not prepare its population against the war because it's not likely to find favor with its population. They want to be able to access the capital, markets and the luxuries of the west. Without western markets and capital, the Russian economy is going to look substantially worse. The sanctions will eventually bite, especially ones on technology that Russia needs to build modern weaponry. Russian weapons will be way costlier and cruder without industrial inputs from the west.Deans wrote:Russia has also not prepared its population for this war. It is only now - after setbacks in Kharkov, constant shelling of Belgorod district, sabotage in Crimea and assassinations in Donbass and Russia, that Russians are realising that they are fighting an existentialist war against NATO. Unlike Stalin in 1941, Putin is more concerned about maintaining the standard of living of his people (after the Oligarchs and he have siphoned off billions), rather than demand that they make the sacrifices necessary to win this war (he needs to start by calling it a war). I think NATO may have made his job easier by now suggesting that this conflict will end will the unconditional surrender of Russia.
There's no existentialist war with NATO. I doubt even Russians believe that as much as people here seem to. At the beginning of the war a German General (or was it the defence minister) went public claiming how his armory was bare. Why would countries seeking an existentialist conflict with the big bad russian bear not arm themselves when then have the financial and technical wherewithal to do so? Or get so reliant on russian energy? I'm sure you're capabale of comparing military spending in western europe during the cold war to 1990-2020.
This is a case of Russian elites behaving like the Pakis - delusions of influence which they see as their right that is far in excess of their economic or military capacity. The Soviet Union lost WHEN IT HAD WAY MORE RESOURCES AND CAPACITY and had completely isolated itself from the west. How is Russia going to win any _existentialist_war_ against the west now ?
The thing Russia also miscalculated badly was how much pain EU was willing to put up with to back Ukraine. Something a lot on this forum gleefully believed as well. Besides predictions of the collapse of the western economies that I've been reading for a couple of decades now.