Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[Karan M]

… without the ability to carpet bomb the shit out of your enemy and civilians our boys will not be respected.

Attacking civilians does not advance military goals. It is a sign of weakness. This is the tactic of terrorists, not professional armed forces.

True but multiple western armed forces have done this and justified it as collateral damage. A USAF pilot was mentioning how when they targeted Iraqi bridges, they blew up civilians crossing them. He (self) justified it as acceptable and "we had no way of informing them". The western way of war regards all dual-use facilities (power, rail, road) as acceptable targets. This led to huge casualty counts both during and after conflict.
https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/cos ... ians/iraqi

So, the Russian restraint vs overall Ukrainian civilian infrastructure (as versus the brutal back and forth in the countryside), despite the occasional miss or hit, has been remarkably different. A lot of questions have been asked as to why they allowed key Ukrainian bridges, power stations to function without being attacked. That might well change though now with a new commander in charge.

[Karan M]

I hope someone in IAF and IA are taking lessons in limited war and all that great theory we are hatching to have a fair and just war cold start etc. without the ability to carpet bomb the shit out of your enemy and civilians our boys will not be respected. At least carpet bomb infrastructure ports power stations and like because if you don’t they will and the west will egg on from the sidelines justifying David and condemning Goliath.

We need more precision guided munitions. The IAF, IA and IN have all calculated their stocking based on theories of short, sharp conflicts and as Ukraine-Russia shows, we are now, seven months in, into a conflict which shows no sign of stoppage. In fact, if anything, it is escalating. We need significantly more more stocks of precision and even dumb munitions and we need to have local production capacity to *surge both despite sanctions*.

As the Russians are discovering throttling supplies of things like microchips, commercial electronics modules, is a tactic the west has used to slow down their rate of replenishment if not stop it (very hard to sanction entirely). If we get sanctioned in a conflict for == reasons, "nuclear overhang" and what not, we will struggle too.

DRDO, BEL, BDL, HAL all need to sit and discuss this with their private partners.

[Cyrano]

Russia has so far resisted applying the Chechenya model on Ukraine due to some blood cousins considerations and hope that it's vast majority of Russian speaking population will appreciate this restraint.

But as we have seen repeatedly, Ukrainian behaviour towards all things and people Russian has crossed all limits and is increasingly turned into rabid hatred, deceit and beastialty. This war can no longer achieve its objectives while sparing Kiev and western Ukraine.

Russia may have given up such hopes and the gloves are coming off. They need to get Zelinsky on the run to regain initiative and control. Without this puppet, Washington's plans in Ukraine will become more complicated to execute atleast in the short term and Russia needs that.

[IndraD]

Russia has struck downtown Kiev with some reports that they hit Zelensky's office. He won't be there; retaliation over the Kerch bridge was expected. However the strikes show Russia can hit Ukraine where it hurts any time they want but have so far been restrained https://twitter.com/RealAlexRubi/status ... Rpo7UJlkgg

[Thakur_B]

I hope someone in IAF and IA are taking lessons in limited war and all that great theory we are hatching to have a fair and just war cold start etc. without the ability to carpet bomb the shit out of your enemy and civilians our boys will not be respected. At least carpet bomb infrastructure ports power stations and like because if you don’t they will and the west will egg on from the sidelines justifying David and condemning Goliath.

We need more precision guided munitions. The IAF, IA and IN have all calculated their stocking based on theories of short, sharp conflicts and as Ukraine-Russia shows, we are now, seven months in, into a conflict which shows no sign of stoppage. In fact, if anything, it is escalating. We need significantly more more stocks of precision and even dumb munitions and we need to have local production capacity to *surge both despite sanctions*.

Even if Nirbhay production is given go ahead today, we would be lucky to have 200 missiles available for usage anytime in this decade. Won't even cover the initial salvo required to hammer the enemy defences for Initial salvo forcing the usage of very costly Brahmos. Nirbhay is the bread to Brahmos butter.

Need a production run of at least 100-200 nirbhay per annum to have a reasonable stock for full scale war.

[Parasu]

Yes.
Because Ukraine is the largest European country and Russia has not managed air superiority over it.

a simple google search tells US is using sea route mostly and not using planes to offload lethal aid to Ukraine
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... pping-sea/

(US has delivered 1 million rounds of shells of Howitzer )

A simple google search also tells US is delivering weapons at the Polish border from where they are taken to Ukraine through the land route. Air control is needed to stop this.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/ ... ne-russia/

[ks_sachin]

Russia has so far resisted applying the Chechenya model on Ukraine due to some blood cousins considerations and hope that it's vast majority of Russian speaking population will appreciate this restraint.

But as we have seen repeatedly, Ukrainian behaviour towards all things and people Russian has crossed all limits and is increasingly turned into rabid hatred, deceit and beastialty. This war can no longer achieve its objectives while sparing Kiev and western Ukraine.

Russia may have given up such hopes and the gloves are coming off. They need to get Zelinsky on the run to regain initiative and control. Without this puppet, Washington's plans in Ukraine will become more complicated to execute atleast in the short term and Russia needs that.

Monsieur Cyrano they should have gone hard from day dot. All this nimby pamby considerations mean lives of own troops are needlessly lost.

This afflicts the Indian political class as well. We call it “proportionate response “.

[Deans]

a simple google search tells US is using sea route mostly and not using planes to offload lethal aid to Ukraine
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... pping-sea/

(US has delivered 1 million rounds of shells of Howitzer )

They have supplied about 800,000 shells of 155mm artillery. However, these can only be used with NATO supplied 155mm guns (like the M-777)
of which there were 126 supplied and about a third still functioning. Ukrainian artillery is 152mm.
Many of the supplied shells have been destroyed in storage.
Guns have to have barrels changed or reconditioned, after about 2000 rounds.

Russia fires at least 20,000 152mm rounds each day.
US monthly production of 155mm shells, is slightly higher than Russia's DAILY production capacity of 152mm shells.

Ukraine's is almost out of 152mm ammo and there is no alternate supplier.

[Deans]

Ukraine's spokesman today made a statement that the Russian AF has just 90 long range PGM's left. Russia then fired about 120.

[IndraD]

Ukraine's spokesman today made a statement that the Russian AF has just 90 long range PGM's left. Russia then fired about 120.

this is from March! https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-ru ... 022-03-25/ Russia running out of precision munitions in Ukraine war- Pentagon official

July
There’s A Good Reason Russia’s Artillery Is Running Out Of Ammo. Ukraine Keeps Blowing It Up. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... c86ce113d6

[Dilbu]

"Russia Launched 75 Missiles": Ukraine As Multiple Blasts Leave 5 Dead

Kyiv: Ukraine's presidency said on Monday there were strikes on "many" cities in Ukraine, a day after Moscow blamed Kyiv for an explosion on a bridge connecting Crimea to Russia. "Ukraine is under missile attack. There is information about strikes in many cities of our country," Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy head of the president's office, said on social media, calling on the population to "stay in shelters". Kyiv says Russia launched 75 missiles on Ukraine Monday morning.

The explosions hit Kyiv around 8:15 am local time (0515 GMT), and an AFP journalist in the city saw numerous ambulances appearing to head towards the scene of the blasts. Kyiv heard at least five blasts on Monday morning. "Several explosions in the Shevchenkivskyi district -- in the centre of the capital," Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko said on social media.

Russian strikes targeted Ukraine energy infrastructure: ZelenskyVideos posted on social media showed black smoke rising above several areas in the city.

[madhu]

The following cities were hit:
- Kyiv
- Dnepropetrovsk
- Kharkiv
- Zaporozhye
- Ternopil
- Odessa
- Krivoy Rog
- Lviv
- Zhytomyr
- Rivne
- Nikolaev
- Krapivnitsky
- Kremenchug
- Konotop

Attacks on critical infrastructure:
- Glavk SBU (Kyiv)
- CHPP-5 (Kyiv)
- CHPP-6 (Kyiv)
- Lvovskaya CHPP (Lviv)
- Burshtynska TPP (Ivano-Frankivsk region)
- EU Advisory Mission (Kyiv)
- Department of Law Enforcement Agencies (Kyiv) Kyiv and Kharkov

Total loss of power:

- Lviv
- Zhytomyr
- Sumy
- Kharkiv
- Khmelnitsky
- Poltava
- Ternopl
- Lutsk

Partial loss of power and full/partial loss of water supply: basically all over Ukraine

t.me/battleinsights

[Deans]

191 missiles (land, air and sea launched) aimed at 14 cities.
Air defenses were saturated and most missiles hit their targets. Ukraine will probably have to redeploy their SAM's from the front, to protecting their cities.

[Nihat]

Given the way Russia was losing ground in South and east regions, this kind of response was anticipated as a way for Russia to distract Ukraine and force them to redeploy precious resources.

If Ukraine continues to retake territory in annexed regions, then one would expect these attacks to further intensify and short of using nukes, seems like one of putin's best strategy to bring this war to an end

[vijayk]

191 missiles (land, air and sea launched) aimed at 14 cities.
Air defenses were saturated and most missiles hit their targets. Ukraine will probably have to redeploy their SAM's from the front, to protecting their cities.

Z's funders in DC don't care if Ukranians die. They want to inflict damage on Russia to continue their propaganda

[Neela]

Needs to be seen if US and NATO Allies will now transfer even more high end weapons to Ukraine.

[Tanaji]

It could be that was the endgame: escalations serious enough so that Russia is forced to respond by upping the ante. There was the earlier attack on a Russian air base as well.

I think this will pave the way to Nato providing longer range ATACM rockets and Leopord tanks. The latter won’t have much of an impact immediately as that’s another logistical chain along with the training but long term, it allows Ukraine to tap into bigger stores.

[IndraD]

there was power outage on Denmark island also due to sabotage to power lines under the sea, so hybrid war will cut both ways. More so on Europe

[YashG]

plenty of missile attacks have been done in past. It doesnt seem to help.

Perhaps wester ISR is making the difference. For sure, thr r plenty of western sources inside kremlin sharing info all the time. Changing the leadership is like re-arranging chairs on deck of titanic. Putin needs to come up with some new trick out of the hat - I cant think of anything yet.

[IndraD]

new wave of missile attacks reported on Kiev. target power plant in Kiev

[vijayk]

2016 - Laindsay Graham and McCain push for war in 2016 ... they promise the war ... they want to get Putin

[Cyrano]

Besides the 300,000 being mobilised, 70,000 Chechen fighters are ready and batches are being deployed on the front lines. Most should be joining the operations in the next one or two weeks.

[IndraD]

https://twitter.com/snekotron/status/15 ... bWj646g19Q Ukrainian sources reporting that NATO has warned them of at least 40 Russian strategic bombers in the air. More missiles likely inbound.

what could this be!

[Cyrano]

If the Russians keep this up for 3 days straight focusing on Kiev, Lviv, Kharhov, cross the northern border with Bylorussia and capture Bakhmut I think Zelinsky will be forced to talk of negotiations.

Then Russia should keep the pressure up, invade Kiev again should also send some greetings to Rzeszov and Zelinsky will talk of surrender. Use a mediator to keep his hopes up so that he does not flee.

Russia should capture Kiev and declare Zelinsky and his clique, SBU, right wing militias... as war criminals and send them to a gulag.

Poland has started begging US to put N weapons on its soil, so give a tasting session to Poland so that they can realise they will be the next Ukraine.

The EU countries have stirred themselves into such an antiRussian frenzy that they need birch slapping to snap out of it.

[Tanaji]

I don’t think Russia is in any position to capture more territory due to all the weaknesses mentioned. Even the stand off missiles fired would be at a premium; they would prefer not to use it but right now had no choice.

Given the distance to Kiev, it would have been cheaper to launch laser guided bombs but Russia does not have air superiority either. But a lesson had to be delivered and this was the only option I suspect. Still a brutal eye opener for Ukraine.

[IndraD]

Poland has reportedly begun taking an inventory of the country’s bomb shelters to ensure that they’re ready for public use in the event of an emergency. The initiative comes amid increased targeting of civilian infrastructure in the nearby Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The inspections of an estimated 62,000 “places of refuge” are being carried out by district fire departments, Polstat News reported on Monday, citing comments by Maciej Wasik, Poland’s deputy minister of interior and administration. The review will assess whether each shelter is properly equipped and fit for use. “If not, we will take steps to adapt them,” Wasik said.

Although the initiative comes at a time when the conflict in neighboring Ukraine is escalating, the public official stressed that Poles aren’t in danger. “We are in NATO, we are part of the European Union,” Wasik said. “We are not participants in this war, although we strongly support Ukraine, but Poland is a safe country.”

https://www.rt.com/news/564428-poland-a ... -shelters/

[gakakkad]

why hasn't Russia been able to establish air superiority? what implications does it have for India ?

[NRao]

Time for "West" to slide out.

In Kyiv, U.S. midterms, and need for aid, cast shadow on battlefield gains

[Rakesh]

why hasn't Russia been able to establish air superiority? what implications does it have for India ?

The western concept of war (i.e. establishing air superiority) is not the method that other countries adopt. In that vein, the value of life that Western nations adopt - during war - is not necessarily shared by other countries. So all the gleeful hysteria that we see in Western media - about Putin losing the conflict - does not even register to the stakeholders in Russia. Even on BRF, the pro American crowd was (and still are) happy at the losses of Russian men and material.

Stalin sent scores of Russian soldiers to their death against well armed German soldiers in World War II. Stalin only cared about Stalin. Personal prestige of authoritarian leaders takes precedence over everything else in Russia. Putin is no different. And despite the millions of Russians that died in World War II, which history book teaches that Russia lost that war? Show me one. It took four years (from 22 June 1941 to 07 May 1945) for the Eastern front to be obliterated and the Russians reaching the heart of Berlin. After 20 years in Afghanistan, what did America achieve? Is post-Saddam Iraq better off?

Do not make the mistake of what is being unveiled in this conflict - with Russian equipment - is going to be replicated in India in a similar manner. There are countless examples of India operating inferior Russian/Western equipment against superior American kit and still coming out on top. The most recent and good example of that is the Balakot conflict. What took decades for Lockheed Martin and Raytheon to build, the Pakistan Air Force ruined in a span of a few minutes. Pakistan Paindabad!!!

[ks_sachin]

why hasn't Russia been able to establish air superiority? what implications does it have for India ?

CAS is not necessarily a doctrine that the RUAF follows.

To add to what the Admiral has stated, in our system as well we have tended to throw men at the problem and this is evidenced by the lack of force multipliers at our disposal. Take for example the problem with China. We have our men doing patrols and these have limitations. Why did not Army in a foresighted manner invest in UAV etc for surveillance. Kargil was another one where our boys fought against the odds and in the initial days what did we do?

Some of the pickets we man are horrendous for the men - could we perhaps use better tech for monitoring these. The LoC from where there are numerous infiltration attempts are there other tech means to bolster the fence.

Could those 5 boys from the SF who lost their lives a couple of years ago when there were helidropped to tackle some infitrators have been alive today if we decided that a UAV with a couple of Air to Surface missiles would do the job - although a bit more expensive but at the cost of our boys not being put in harms way unnecessarily!

I don't know the answers but we have to put more of a premium on the lives of Indian soldiers.

[Karan M]

We need more precision guided munitions. The IAF, IA and IN have all calculated their stocking based on theories of short, sharp conflicts and as Ukraine-Russia shows, we are now, seven months in, into a conflict which shows no sign of stoppage. In fact, if anything, it is escalating. We need significantly more more stocks of precision and even dumb munitions and we need to have local production capacity to *surge both despite sanctions*.

Even if Nirbhay production is given go ahead today, we would be lucky to have 200 missiles available for usage anytime in this decade. Won't even cover the initial salvo required to hammer the enemy defences for Initial salvo forcing the usage of very costly Brahmos. Nirbhay is the bread to Brahmos butter.

Need a production run of at least 100-200 nirbhay per annum to have a reasonable stock for full scale war.

To be honest I have given up understanding why the strongest govt in many decades (electorally), which speaks so much on its muscular nationalism, is so parsimonious when it comes to defence R&D and even defence budgets.

[NRao]

why hasn't Russia been able to establish air superiority? what implications does it have for India ?

I think there are two broad reasons:

First, the stated and published goals of Russia, at the start, were: Capture Donbas, de-military-fy Ukraine, and de-nazify Ukraine. Have they achieved that? Or are they heading toward those goals?

Second, Russia has stated often that Russia is fighting the West and at times have mentioned the US. And, therefore Russia is using multiple means to tackle the problem. The main counter is economic: which nations have the sanctions on Russia hurt the most? Russia has stated that the rules for the current world order in unacceptable. Russia (perhaps along with China) is working on an alternative reserve currency to torpedo the USD.

So, I do not see their inability to control the skies over Ukraine - at this point in time - as being critical. Can Russia gain control of Ukrainian skies? I think they can. Just ask Elon Musk. Somebody has disabled his Starlink network in Ukraine. And, pretty much every CM sent by Russia today *seems* to have reached its target. If that is not "control" no idea what else is.

[D.Mahesh]

why hasn't Russia been able to establish air superiority?...

Wrong. RuAF enjoys air supremacy. There's no Uk ADef worth the name, than in the pages of Vogue.

[ks_sachin]

I think it would be useful for people to ready up on what air superiority means - IN DIFFERENT FACETS OF WARFARE!

[titash]

why hasn't Russia been able to establish air superiority? what implications does it have for India ?

They choose not to - that's why.

The Russians are holding back the bulk of their Tier-I equipment in reserve, and not showing their hand.

They are carefully husbanding their air force reserves for a conflict with NATO and/or China. A victory in Ukraine that causes 10-20% attrition in the RuAF will be pyrrhic. Also, it would expose their tactics and weaknesses around EW/BVR, just like Balakot day 2, for future exploitation by NATO and/or China

Also, they lack the boots on the ground to hang on to any captured territory west of the Dnieper. So what's the point?

Russian Objectives:
1. Push NATO westwards, or at least block NATO expansion eastwards...successfully accomplished; no NATO status for Ukraine
2. Incorporate Russian speaking territories and gain their manpower...successfully accomplished; legalized via referendum
3. Maintain military's cutting edge intact and don't reveal cards too early...successfully accomplished

[RoyG]

why hasn't Russia been able to establish air superiority? what implications does it have for India ?

They choose not to - that's why.

The Russians are holding back the bulk of their Tier-I equipment in reserve, and not showing their hand.

They are carefully husbanding their air force reserves for a conflict with NATO and/or China. A victory in Ukraine that causes 10-20% attrition in the RuAF will be pyrrhic. Also, it would expose their tactics and weaknesses around EW/BVR, just like Balakot day 2, for future exploitation by NATO and/or China

Also, they lack the boots on the ground to hang on to any captured territory west of the Dnieper. So what's the point?

Russian Objectives:
1. Push NATO westwards, or at least block NATO expansion eastwards...successfully accomplished; no NATO status for Ukraine
2. Incorporate Russian speaking territories and gain their manpower...successfully accomplished; legalized via referendum
3. Maintain military's cutting edge intact and don't reveal cards too early...successfully accomplished

The russian campaign was poorly planned and executed. However, all Russia needs to do is wait for winter and kill the Ukrainian power, water, and gas. They always counted on this from the beginning as a way to kill the conflict should the initial negotiations fail. These missile attacks are warning shots to bring them back to the negotiating table with a greater sense of urgency.

I am also curious as to how many Frontline troops including mercenaries, militia, etc were actually deployed. My guess is something like 80k. I honestly don't think the Russians lost much but I think they will need the next couple months to replenish their inventory so they won't be launching any new offensives till Dec-Jan.

[Pratyush]

why hasn't Russia been able to establish air superiority? what implications does it have for India ?

What is the meaning of air superiority?

If one airforce is doing what needs to be done and when it needs to be done. The why is air superiority deemed to be absent?

[ks_sachin]

The Russians are holding back the bulk of their Tier-I equipment in reserve, and not showing their hand.

What is this tier 1 equipment. they have used the full spectrum of their AF (fixed wing and rotary) so what are they holding back.

They are carefully husbanding their air force reserves for a conflict with NATO and/or China. A victory in Ukraine that causes 10-20% attrition in the RuAF will be pyrrhic. Also, it would expose their tactics and weaknesses around EW/BVR, just like Balakot day 2, for future exploitation by NATO and/or China

What reserves do they actually have and while they may have reserves of a/c what reserves of PGMs do they have and could the RuAF have been used more effectively.

Also, they lack the boots on the ground to hang on to any captured territory west of the Dnieper. So what's the point?

It’s only now that they have started to plug that gaping hole of manpower through he mobilisation. Despite all the wishful thinking of what they are capable of the reality of the RuAF was well documented and evidenced by the nature of the ops and the results. But perhaps utilisation of RuAF in a combat support role - something that is not doctrinally part of the RuArmed Forces - was something that has comeback to bite them.

Russian Objectives:
3. Maintain military's cutting edge intact and don't reveal cards too early...successfully accomplished

[/quote]

What is this cutting edge? What part of their bag of tricks is such a closely guarded that they would prefer to keep it under lock and key. They have let this drag on and if all was going according to plan then we would not have military campaign leaders replaced yes or does one routinely replace Army chiefs when everything is going as per plan?

[ks_sachin]

why hasn't Russia been able to establish air superiority? what implications does it have for India ?

What is the meaning of air superiority?

If one airforce is doing what needs to be done and when it needs to be done. The why is air superiority deemed to be absent?

Have they done what needs to be done?

Considering Deans is based close to the conflict zone I will trust him when he quotes RuAF pilots being hesitant in doing low level flying due to the threat of man pads. That means that the use RuAF in support of combat operations could be less than optimal.

[Deans]

Stalin sent scores of Russian soldiers to their death against well armed German soldiers in World War II. Stalin only cared about Stalin. Personal prestige of authoritarian leaders takes precedence over everything else in Russia. Putin is no different. And despite the millions of Russians that died in World War II, which history book teaches that Russia lost that war? Show me one. It took four years (from 22 June 1941 to 07 May 1945) for the Eastern front to be obliterated and the Russians reaching the heart of Berlin.

Rakesh ji, I would put this in a more nuanced way. Once Germany invaded the USSR, millions of Russians would have died anyway. The choice was either to die fighting, or die as a slave in a labor camp. Or, as it was said at the time `We had to choose between 2 dictators, we chose the one who spoke Russian'. This war's outcome will depend on to who is willing to sacrifice more - the Russian people, Europeans, or (as has now become a factor) the Ukrainian people. After the recent assassinations/ Crimea bridge attack etc, I will not bet on the Russian people folding first. I think the relevance of the 1941-5 timeline is that Russia, from the start prepared for a long war, Germany did not (as seems to be the case now - after Russia's plan A of a 2 week dash to Kiev failed).