Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 16 Dec 2022 13:55

Not flying the hooked cross yet are they... still worried that it is closely associated with evil old Adolf & ze germans or they don't wan't people to think that Modi & india are finally supporting the Ukraine so let's ease up on the pressure. Maybe both.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 16 Dec 2022 14:14

Not just flags, special children camps (esp in summer) along the lines of our NCC have been conducted in many cities since many years, where nazi supremacist indoctrination is done on hundreds of children. They are taught hate-russian songs, hitler salutes, fed a false history and victim mentality is anchored. Plenty of their own boastful videos on the internet. Essentially these are Madarssas in a different flavour brainwashing the new generations.

Lviv is the epicentre of this Bandera worshiping ideology. But many other cities have significant extremist groups activity. Nazi flags and hakenkreuz etc are symbols of hatred of the other, right now directed at anything Russian but is generally xheophobia. Could be repurposed at anything the puppeteers want. Europe has decided to dance with this devil and turn a bling eye, especially since Feb22. Like Hillary said, snakes in the backyard...

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 16 Dec 2022 14:34

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-launc ... 20Telegram.
Fresh barrage of missile attack on power infra around Kiev, over 60 missiles spotted heading to Kiev & around

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 16 Dec 2022 14:50

Deadly attack leaves retaken Kherson with no power
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63983730

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Dec 2022 05:51

Scott Ritter and the UKR leader's interview in the Economist (a top-notch Neocon paper)

https://youtu.be/LuDFbS6mD6U?start=415&end=450

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Dec 2022 06:01

Royal Marines deployed in ‘high-risk’ missions in Ukraine, says British general

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Dec 2022 22:32

Folks we had this thread for quite some time but I see no insight or takeaways that India can learn. We are just posting snippets from the media from both sides.
In the big picture, Ukraine is fighting with the US Army doctrine of RMA i.e combining precision attacks using communications. Russia is fighting the old way of mass with lessons learned from Grozny etc by using long-range shelling an missile attacks. So we are seeing two different strategies being tested.

I refer you to an old article that I had quoted in the Operational Art thread by a French critic.

Desportes disapproves for a number of reasons, among them his distaste for the American way of war and American strategic culture, which, he argues, fetishizes technology and prevents strategists from grasping the fundamentally political nature of most conflicts. Americans, he says, confuse war with a technological duel. They build weapons for weapons’ sake. A case in point he offers is the so-called “transformation” or the “revolution in military affairs,” the American idea that digital networking technology matched with precision munitions was revolutionizing warfare and offered the United States a major advantage over its opponents. He cites the U.S. military publication Joint Vision 2010, which is shot through with enthusiasm for high technology, as a prime example of the U.S. military’s religious “credo.”

Desportes regards the American way of war as intrinsically flawed and, in any case, too expensive for France to follow. It necessitates equipment so costly that those without America’s deep pockets are forced to slash their forces to pay for new, up-to-date items, creating something of a death spiral for militaries that already are cutting their size because of budget cuts. French and other allied forces are becoming exquisite — meaning, in this case, highly capable and very expensive — but rare. This is a problem because, Desportes insists, numbers matter and most conflicts require controlling space rather than simply locating and attacking the enemy. Controlling space requires “volume.” The result is a French military that can prevail in a battle but cannot win a war.

Cutting budgets to finance “American-style” fighting is also problematic because it results in gaps in French capabilities, which oblige France to rely even more on American help. Indeed, France’s reliance on the United States to conduct its military operations (the United States routinely provides aerial refueling, heavy airlift, and intelligence) gives Washington a de facto veto power over many French military activities. There is plenty of precedent: The United States used its ability to throttle back support to the French military to limit French action in Indochina, Sinai, and Algeria as well as on a number of occasions in Africa. Diminished capabilities also translate into diminished resiliency and overall operational coherence. Desportes compares “transformation” with the Maginot Line, the cost of which, he says, forced France to cut back on a number of capabilities that reduced the force’s “operational coherence” and gravely weakened the whole. For Desportes it is clear that the American way of war does not work for Americans, either: They lose their wars.

This was written in 2015.
LINK: https://warontherocks.com/2018/01/meet- ... losophers/

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Dec 2022 22:41

I had posted this in Strat Forum

https://www.csis.org/features/competing-gray-zone

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 18 Dec 2022 01:24

Ramana garu,
American and non Americans mean and understand very different things when they say "war". Action faraway for US vs Conflict closer to or at home for the rest. And for Russia now, it IS at home. Everything - posture, politics, tech, R&D, volumes, doctrine, tactics follow from that. European leaders are elitist snobs or ideologue idiots and cant see this fundamental difference. Creating the EU may have avoided intra-continental wars, but has blurred the lines of sovereignty and collective policy. Along with NATO, it has only served the leaders to shirk national responsibility and since muddled group think never achieves anything, simply hitch themselves to American policy hoping it works, and counting on the US to save them if it doesn't, and foot most of the bills. Ukraine conflict is the perfect demonstration of this.

Some more relevant quotes from the article you posted:

Desportes’ argument for hard power and his dismissal of multilateralism — essentially, nice but dangerous if relied upon...

The American way, he (Goya) writes, is safer, but except for those rare conflicts in which destroying enemy combatants is in fact the key to victory, it doesn’t usually contribute to winning wars.

Nothing has really changed in France since those articles were written some 5+ years ago. Macron is a M&A banker and is even less of a politician than his predecessors, much less a statesman.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 18 Dec 2022 19:23

Good analysis of Bakhmut fighting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fqHERDXVpk

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Dec 2022 01:11

Cyrano its not about France but US and Russia.
The RMA can do only so much.

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 21 Dec 2022 02:43

Going by Desportes rule India going for Rafale is suicide - go for Tejas instead at 1:3 ratio

I guess if India can afford both - then its fine...

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 21 Dec 2022 07:29

Deans wrote:Good analysis of Bakhmut fighting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fqHERDXVpk

Good analysis but Western bias is making miss the main point, he keeps claiming only the Russians are having huge casualties, while admitting Russia is using a lot more artillery. I suspect the truth is the Russians are using probing infantry attacks with a lot of artillery, it is bleeding Ukrainian infantry in defensive positions and a lot of artillery busy along with Ukrainian

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 22 Dec 2022 08:14

Aditya_V wrote:
Deans wrote:Good analysis of Bakhmut fighting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fqHERDXVpk
Good analysis but Western bias is making miss the main point, he keeps claiming only the Russians are having huge casualties, while admitting Russia is using a lot more artillery. I suspect the truth is the Russians are using probing infantry attacks with a lot of artillery, it is bleeding Ukrainian infantry in defensive positions and a lot of artillery busy along with Ukrainian

Hi mate.

I think you should see this video along with the video on Russian tactics. Just because he is saying that Russia's lost infantry does not mean that he is implying that the Ukr are not. The fact of the matter is that Russian tactics and strategy have not made much headway, have they? After all the heavy-duty arty we would have seen a lot more gains no?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 22 Dec 2022 08:44

The problem with Perun has always been that he very eloquently makes the conflict into a Ukraine-Russia conflict. If it were that simple there would be no conflict as we type.

That video also proves that he needs so many fillers that he has to visit Roman history!!! There is just simply not enough material in Ukraine to fill a 5-minute video.

MacGregor and the likes have far better sources and therefore reliable numbers. MacGregor and the likes are from the USMC/Army and do not need to rely on a USMC Staff Sargent to fill in the blanks to make videos.

If it were about trench warfare this extremely nicely packaged PR video would get the only prize there is. Unfortunately, it is way beyond trenches. "Tactics" include withholding oil and gas - which obviously is out-of-bounds for military tactics. Until Perun and others figure out how to include how many are freezing in the West (including London) and such into "tactics" such videos will remain academic.

Russia has made great progress. The economic sanctions, as one example, failed. Miserably. But, you see that is not a military tactic. Only trench warfare is. In Dec 2022, we cherry-pick what is "tactics". We fail ourselves. Those trenches are directly linked to all sorts of other "stuff". But, Perun says they are not. And, he is an honorable man.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 22 Dec 2022 08:59

This video has a reasonably good estimate of Russian losses and some data on Ukraine, which is all over the place.
I have posted similar numbers on Russia earlier. Similar numbers quoted in non govt Russian social media channels.
The video series is from an amateur who wants to monetize. However, this one cites fairly reliable sources.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bfj2c5racUY

Re: The previous video I posted. I agree with N Rao that Col Douglas McGregor (and Scott Ritter) have better sources and a better understanding
of war, at the operational and strategic level. I think Perun is Australian Military (not sure about rank) so less pro NATO bias and he makes some
points not covered in other analysis I've seen.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 22 Dec 2022 09:05

What are the reasonably good estimates of "Ukrainian" losses?

Please give me a ratio.

Russian::"Ukraine"

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 22 Dec 2022 09:18

I tried to find out who this "Perun" is:

Perun was a totally unknown Australian video game vlogger before the Russian-Ukrainian war. Today, he is a highly respected and widely followed armchair military analyst with a head for strategy and logistics. He makes these videos in his spare time.

Just BTW, I am opposed to The New Atlas guy: Brian Berletic. An ex-USMC guy who is a very sweet talker - like Perun - and has taken over YT.

There are others: Alexander Mercurious is another. Great on UK (perhaps because I know nothing), but terrible on India/China

And, no, I have no nerves to "touch a nerve"

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 22 Dec 2022 16:10

Jacques Baud is excellent on this topic. His videos are mostly in French but he speaks excellent English and there are a few interviews of Baud in English toi.

His credentials are very very credible. Search on yt and listen to him if interested.

SandeepA · Post by **SandeepA** » 22 Dec 2022 20:51

Hi Guys, what is the latest on the conflict in terms of territorial gains/losses? I keep hearing a lot around the war but nothing on the territory gain/loss which the proof of the pudding really. Has the onset of winter made any difference on the ground as we were told to believe?

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 22 Dec 2022 22:20

SandeepA wrote:Hi Guys, what is the latest on the conflict in terms of territorial gains/losses? I keep hearing a lot around the war but nothing on the territory gain/loss which the proof of the pudding really. Has the onset of winter made any difference on the ground as we were told to believe?

https://liveuamap.com/

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 22 Dec 2022 23:02

Cyrano wrote:Jacques Baud is excellent on this topic. His videos are mostly in French but he speaks excellent English and there are a few interviews of Baud in English toi.

His credentials are very very credible. Search on yt and listen to him if interested.

Indeed. In fact, I consider this man a combination of Ritter and MacGregor. A ret Col from the Swiss army he has the extremely rare **experience** of both inspecting (Ritter) and advising (Macgregor) in that region.

As an example, and a counter to the arm chairists like Perun:

Our latest interview with Jacques Baud

Sept, 2022

TP: It is commonly said in the West that this war has “proven” that the Russian army is feeble and that its equipment is useless. Are these assertions true?

JB: No. After more than six months of war, it can be said that the Russian army is effective and efficient, and that the quality of its command & control far exceeds what we see in the West. But our perception is influenced by a reporting that is focused on the Ukrainian side, and by distortions of reality.

The main lesson of this war at this stage confirms what we know since the Second World War: the Russians master the operational art.

That pretty much sums up what every expert in the West (those who have had first-hand experience with the Soviets/Russia and have tracked Ukraine for a long time) has said.

For serious people only. A long interview. And, there are others.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 23 Dec 2022 01:40

Baud's French interviews are simply masterful !
European mainstream media ignores him and tries to bully/cancel/discredit him, even using partisan "fact checkers" funded by UK intelligence. At its own peril.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 23 Dec 2022 12:33

As per Twitter Videos , Zaluzhny now wants tougher laws to prevent Desertion , especially due to High Casualties in retaking defended positions

https://twitter.com/i/status/1605139055230046208

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 23 Dec 2022 21:01

And important aspect of Ukraine war, which will predict its future course, is the current strength, mobilisation and casualties suffered by both sides. The figures for Ukraine are better understood. But Russia continues to be a black box. For instance, what are the casualties suffered by Russia? The numbers are anything from 50,000 to 2,00,00. Off course casualties will include killed and wounded. If we consider only the number of soldiers killed in action then Ukraine number is believed to be one lakh while Russian numbers are unknown. In my guess it should be at least 25,000 to 50,000

Similarly how many soldiers has Russia mobilised? The partial mobilisation was for three lakh soldiers, apart from this, they’re were volunteers, mobilisation from Ukraine area occupied by Russia that is LPR, DPR, Crimea et cetera.Apart from Wagners

Assumimg Russia will lose two lakh soldiers killed or wounded in one year. It would mean that Russia needs at least six lakh soldiers to be mobilised, in order to increase its strength on the border. If only three lakh soldiers are mobilised then It will slowly continue to get pushed back by large number of Ukrainian soldiers which are slowly increasing up to 1 million
Assuming mobilisation of three lakh soldiers plus Wagner 25,000 and mobilisation from occupied area of 75,000. We get around four lakh soldiers , Russia may need another mobilisation in February such that it can have adequate strength by May 2023.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 23 Dec 2022 22:54

You need to read the official reports published by Russian MoD

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 24 Dec 2022 00:16

When has the number of humans killed in ANY war ever mattered (while the wars are in progress)?

Two "world wars", some 60 million dead (who knows how many were injured). 20 million in the first. That was not enough, some 30+ million in the 2nd. All that mattered was funds. Check out how much money was printed.

Even here in the Ukraine war, the ONLY reason the US is mentioned is not because of some high-tech arms, it is the unlimited funds that the US can generate.

That is exactly what Senator Graham said: (As long as no American soldier is involved) we will supply Ukraine with every assistance she needs. We fund, you die. We will not count the dollars, you don't count the dead bodies.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 24 Dec 2022 08:47

NRao wrote:What are the reasonably good estimates of "Ukrainian" losses?

Please give me a ratio.

Russian::"Ukraine"

His estimate was 17000 KIA for Russian armed forces + DPR/LPR & Wagner, which I agree with and consistent with other estimates.
Ukrainian estimates vary widely (from 10 to 135,000 KIA). The Ukrainian govt's own estimates, which were 9000 dead some months ago and
losing around 100-200 KIA a day (for 300 days now) which exclude foreign fighters are probably close to actual, as would the Russian MOD estimate of 65000 Ukrainian KIA. (they have given a higher KIA figure but a low WIA and no details of MIA).

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 24 Dec 2022 09:04

NRao wrote: Just BTW, I am opposed to The New Atlas guy: Brian Berletic. An ex-USMC guy who is a very sweet talker - like Perun - and has taken over YT.

There are others: Alexander Mercurious is another. Great on UK (perhaps because I know nothing), but terrible on India/China

I think Brian is only good when discussing US military equipment and soldier training, since he has direct experience of both. He is poor on Geopolitics and since he's based in Thailand, his knowledge & interest is for East Asia rather than Europe.
Alex Mercurious is better at Geopolitics (more UK centric as you suggest), but has no military experience.

The `Military Summary', in my opinion, has is the best English youtube channel on the actual ground situation (mostly Russian sources), but fails at analysis. It is run by a guy from Belarus, who seems to have only a basic understanding of military stuff (as a conscript or junior officer would). There's a similar channel `Defense politics Asia', but it is run by an amateur out of Singapore. The Belarus guy, Dima has the advantage of accessing documents in Russian and pronouncing names correctly.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 24 Dec 2022 11:23

One listens to all of them.

The truth is somewhere in between.

We are looking for the holy grail of objective and accurate battle information. That is an oxymoron if there was one.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 24 Dec 2022 15:56

At this stage we do not know

1) How many Russians are KIAand WIA
2) How many Ukrainians are KIA and WIA
3) 2hat resources are available to Russia or NATO.

Both sides are determined, unless one side losses enough men and resources this will go on, months, years who knows

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 24 Dec 2022 16:17

Some points from addresses made by Shoigu and Putin to the Russian armed forces a couple of days ago.
- The Russian armed forces will be expended to 1.5 million men (from 1 million). Approx. half will be contract soldiers.
- Min age for conscription will be 21 (not 18). This is most likely designed to include college graduates. Hitherto, boys who have secured University
admission were exempt from conscription. The result has been poor technical knowledge among conscripts in operating increasingly sophisticated
weapons. Max age increased to 30.
- Most of the additional manpower in the army will go to the infantry. (5 new airborne/marine divisions, which are basically light infantry).
- The BTG concept is dead. It's back to Divisions and Brigades with more infantry than they currently have.

- Russia is looking to fight a long war. No indication that there is going to be a winter offensive that will quickly end the war.
- Candid admission that Russia lagged behind in drone development and in other tech areas.
- Admission that mistakes were made in mobilization when starting the war and then with the call up of 300,000 men.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 24 Dec 2022 17:48

This war will go on for at least a few years.

If Putin is voted out in the next elections. The next government will have to decide what is the position the Russian state has to accept in the future. That will decide when the war will end.

But keeping in view the position of Russians pre- Putin. The west cannot be assured that Russians will give up on Ukraine.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 24 Dec 2022 20:46

If at all Putin loses the next elections (unlikely IMO) there is a possibility Medvedev becomes the next President. Now that would be fun!

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 25 Dec 2022 09:56

Medvedev and Putin are from the same party.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 25 Dec 2022 10:08

Mr. Medvedev will only stand as instructed by Mr. Putin. If Mr. Putin was interested in a genuine democratic election (and prepared to lose based on the vote), he would permit Alexei Navalny to stand. It’s obvious that nothing of the sort will happen.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 25 Dec 2022 11:44

Pratyush wrote:Medvedev and Putin are from the same party.

Medvedev or Lukhashenko (if he heads a merged Russia-Belarus republic) may be more hardline than Putin.
The security council may also include Chechen leader Kadirov, who is a hardliner.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 25 Dec 2022 12:00

Pratyush wrote:This war will go on for at least a few years.

Depends.

The next US Congress, coming Jan 3, 2023, could reduce funding and thus slowly bring it to a grinding halt too.

If Putin is voted out in the next elections. The next government will have to decide what is the position the Russian state has to accept in the future. That will decide when the war will end.

As we type, I think, Russians see this war as existential. I think they are gearing up for such an eventuality. Which, imo, includes making China as an industrial base for war materials. I feel Medvedev's visit was to nail down details.

Point being who is at the Russian helm does not matter. I do not think Russia will go back to the Jan 2022 days: SWIFT, oil and gas supplies, buying products from the EU, etc. That is all over.

I think there is a permanent crack between Russia and the West.

But keeping in view the position of Russians pre- Putin. The west cannot be assured that Russians will give up on Ukraine.

Pre-Putin was that drunk Yeltsin who was taken for a ride by the West. That is what the "West" wants. Unfinished business.

Ukraine is just an excuse. Who among the "West" cares for Ukraine? No one.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 25 Dec 2022 12:05

BTW, late last night Garland Nixon mentioned that India has no choice but to join Russia and China. And, that Russia was trying to broker between waring India and China.

India cannot straddle this divide.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 25 Dec 2022 12:48

In my view. We have to keep on US side of divide or even take a hard turn towards US. We need to live with, benefit from and also insulate ourselves from US like China. We should not be anti-Russia but we have to be pro-US