Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 25 Dec 2022 14:19

NRao wrote:BTW, late last night Garland Nixon mentioned that India has no choice but to join Russia and China. And, that Russia was trying to broker between waring India and China.

India cannot straddle this divide.

NRao

Why do we not have a choice?

Is there something preventing us from joining the US camp?

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 25 Dec 2022 15:15

Some more combat footage. A huge strike on Bakhmut
https://www.bitchute.com/video/RRGLWGgehsFN/

This is a Ukr combat column absolutely wrecked by Arti strike. The last IFV is upside down. I cannot imagine what just happened there. Also note the Nazi symbols on every vehicle.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/JTh4VLEgOnt1/

This is about morale of Ukr troops on the front line. Also regarding how there are anti -retreat troops basically killing or imprisoning troops who retreat.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/ne2RXaYkuilp/

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 25 Dec 2022 19:56

I think India should continue to play the diplomatic tightrope it is playing w.r.t Russia and the west and involve itself as little as possible . With "not an era of war" statements for west consumption . And engaging with Russia to the extent of what is profitable . At the same time strengthen ourselves economically ,industrially , scientifically and of course militaristically . I have a feeling EU countries will more and more make loopholes to bypass there own sanctions .

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 25 Dec 2022 21:32

ks_sachin wrote:
NRao wrote:BTW, late last night Garland Nixon mentioned that India has no choice but to join Russia and China. And, that Russia was trying to broker between waring India and China.

India cannot straddle this divide.
NRao

Why do we not have a choice?

Is there something preventing us from joining the US camp?

Response here

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 25 Dec 2022 23:46

NRao wrote:When has the number of humans killed in ANY war ever mattered (while the wars are in progress)?

Two "world wars", some 60 million dead (who knows how many were injured). 20 million in the first. That was not enough, some 30+ million in the 2nd. All that mattered was funds. Check out how much money was printed.

Even here in the Ukraine war, the ONLY reason the US is mentioned is not because of some high-tech arms, it is the unlimited funds that the US can generate.

That is exactly what Senator Graham said: (As long as no American soldier is involved) we will supply Ukraine with every assistance she needs. We fund, you die. We will not count the dollars, you don't count the dead bodies.

The issue I was raising was about how many soldiers Russia has been able to mobilise less the casualties ie net increase

Anoop · Post by **Anoop** » 25 Dec 2022 23:50

https://youtu.be/94YdTI9lFsc

Interesting panel discussion.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 26 Dec 2022 11:07

Gyan wrote: The issue I was raising was about how many soldiers Russia has been able to mobilise less the casualties ie net increase

Russia has officially mobilized 300,000 men. I see no reason to disbelieve that, since there are breakups of regional totals etc and reasonable
evidence to suggest that almost no one has avoided a call-up.
Its possible the last 2 batches of conscripts have had their service terms extended by a year. There are approx 130,000 conscripts in each batch (twice a year). 90,000 of these will be army. So, potentially 180,000 more, less those who fled abroad, or already called up. Say 150,000 more.

In addition, 70-80,000 not called up have volunteered. It seems believable, as recruiting office across Russia are reported to have a lot of volunteers.
The above figures probably include Chechens, whom their leader Kadyrov said are being separately recruited.
It excludes the Wagner group, but their overall numbers are small. They are expected to have replaced their 500 odd casualties.

So there are potentially 300+150+70k new joinees = 520,000 men.

Russia has lost at least 60,000 men (KIA + WIA who cannot rejoin) as per my earlier post.
Another 60,000 will be contract soldiers, who have left after their terms expired.
About 10,000 of the DPR/LPR militia who have been fighting constantly and are too old, or unfit, will probably be sent home.
Russia probably has 200,000 inside Ukraine. Assume a third of them are being rotated, it means 65000 men not in combat. (Their weapons are also
undergoing repair and replenishment).

So a possible increase of 520,000 men and a reduction of 195,000.
Of the net addition of 325,000 men, it may be reasonable to assume a third are in support roles in Russia, or based in formations outside Ukraine (e.g. anti aircraft units & those inside Belarus).
So, 200,000 men in combat formations inside Ukraine, which is doubling the number originally there.

Obviously a lot of assumptions here. Whichever way one tweaks the numbers, I think Russia has enough men to avoid further loss of territory, but not enough for an outright win.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 26 Dec 2022 11:28

Some interesting info on Tank /IFV production.

Russia's main tank factory (the world's biggest since it started in WW2) has delivered 200 T-90's to the army since the war started.
It is currently producing 20 * T-90s a month and repairing & modernizing 20 * T-72s a month. They have just announced 24 hours * 7 days production, up from 16 hrs * 6 days.

The OMSK tank factory (started a new production line) repairs & refurbishes 20 (T-80 / T-64) tanks / month and has started production of
new tanks and BMPs
A 3rd factory (just restarted) produces 20 * BMP / month.

There are also Two large field repair facilities starting operations. There are for the repair of tanks & Armored vehicles damaged in battle, and are intended to take the load of armaments plants and perform quick repairs (but more complex repair than what is done at the brigade/division level).

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 26 Dec 2022 13:33

Dean’s estimate about net increase of 200,000 Russian soldiers is broadly in line with my estimate, though I have calculated the figures slightly differently. Be as it me, I don’t think, Russia can avoid a defeat with such numbers. In order to avoid defeat in Ukraine & protect its zone of influence in other nations, Russia needs net mobilisation of around 1 million soldiers. Therefore either Putin will have to call up additional mobilisation in Jan 23 or acept defeat in May 2023

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 26 Dec 2022 13:39

Russia needs more than Tanks, what is Russian production rate of :-

Aircraft
Bombers
Helos
SAMs
Even Recce Satellites
AWACS
ELINT aircraft
AAMs etc

More importantly :-

Lancet drone, Russia claimed it will increase production to 100 per day by end of Dec 22 but production seems to be 2 per day
What about Male or Hale UAVs?
Cruise missiles, caliber? My guess 3 to 4 per day
Tactical missiles, kh-38, 59 ? Again my guess 3-4 per day
ATGMs, Kornet, 305
Guided Smerch?
Kraspanol?
Orion & Orlan UAVs?

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 27 Dec 2022 08:34

So when does the long speculated winter zerg rush by Russia start? Are they waiting for hell to freeze over?

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 27 Dec 2022 08:40

Thakur_B wrote:So when does the long speculated winter zerg rush by Russia start? Are they waiting for hell to freeze over?

Not hell, but the ground, which has to freeze hard enough for tanks and vehicles to move cross country. That should have happened around now.
This is also the time when it is very difficult to stay in trenches. The bottom of it has freezing water and if clothes are wet, you can freeze to death when you sleep. The intensity of arty fire and drones make leaving the trench difficult. So if an offensive has to happen, it should start very soon.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 27 Dec 2022 10:01

^ any on ground updates from your sources ? What's the status in Bakhmut?

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 27 Dec 2022 10:47

So this is the country India depends on for war supplies.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 27 Dec 2022 11:00

Deans,

I have a feeling that there is not likely to be any large scale offensive. While there may be more troops I dont think the Russians are in a position to commit across a broad front.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 27 Dec 2022 15:06

Max freeze happens around 40 days from winter/snowfall. Roughly Second week of Jan 2023. But I don't think Russia will attack, there will be more withdrawals by Russia. Unless Russia is able to increase its suicide drone production & use, to more than 200 per day. The Russian propaganda leaks claimed that Russia will up its production of Lancet to 100 per day & Germanium (Shahed-136 clone) to 20 per day by Dec 2022. But there does not seem to be any major uptick since Sept 2022.

shaun · Post by **shaun** » 27 Dec 2022 16:59

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... 9fbf5e575c

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 28 Dec 2022 00:30

Someone in US Pentagon suggested decapitation strike on Kremlin in September, Lavrov has said 'US should think twice before contemplating ‘decapitation strike’ – Lavrov' https://www.rt.com/russia/568971-us-thr ... ssination/

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 28 Dec 2022 01:35

IndraD wrote:Someone in US Pentagon suggested decapitation strike on Kremlin in September, Lavrov has said 'US should think twice before contemplating ‘decapitation strike’ – Lavrov' https://www.rt.com/russia/568971-us-thr ... ssination/

I think it’s setting the scene for some proxy strike by Nato using Ukraine as the front. Recall the two strikes on Engels air base.. supposedly they were drone attacks, but which drone has that range? Its either Nato special forces in deep penetration raid into Russia or some long ranged drone…

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 28 Dec 2022 02:52

Thakur_B wrote:So when does the long speculated winter zerg rush by Russia start? Are they waiting for hell to freeze over?

checking local weather in E. Ukraine, there is only rain forecasted for the next 7 days. Also light snow. I still do not see the heavy snow followed by the freeze yet

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 28 Dec 2022 04:38

Bakhmut: Inside Ukraine's Bloodiest Fight

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 28 Dec 2022 05:38

vimal wrote:So this is the country India depends on for war supplies.

You cannot depend on any one for your war supplies! Better Russia than the west - they dont care who you fight with.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 28 Dec 2022 06:18

FYI: Per this report, Russia will act.

Russian foreign minister gives Ukraine ultimatum over 4 occupied regions

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Monday that Ukraine must fulfil Moscow's proposals regarding their "new territories" — or the Russian military would take action, according to Russian state news agency TASS.

"The enemy is well aware of our proposals for the demilitarization and denazification of the regime-controlled territories and the elimination of threats to Russian security from there, including our new territories (the DNR, LNR, and the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions)," Lavrov said, repeating false accusations of Nazism against Ukraine used by Moscow in an attempt to justify its invasion.

"There is just one thing left to do: to fulfill them before it's too late. Otherwise the Russian army will take matters into its own hands.
"With regard to the duration of the conflict, the ball is now in the court of Washington and its regime. They can stop this futile resistance at any moment."

The four occupied territories: Russia claimed control over the four regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson after sham referendums in September, widely slammed by Kyiv and Western governments as violating international law.

But Russia has struggled with setbacks in these areas from the start — Moscow's forces were not in full control of the territories when they were rubber-stamped as part of the Russian Federation.

Just weeks after illegally annexing Kherson, Ukraine reclaimed its regional capital with the same name, liberating about 10,000 square kilometers of land and moving its Western-supplied artillery within range of Crimea.

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that the situation in the four occupied territories was "extremely complicated," a rare window into the challenges that Moscow faces in areas it has attempted to illegally annex.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 28 Dec 2022 08:42

dnivas wrote:
Thakur_B wrote:So when does the long speculated winter zerg rush by Russia start? Are they waiting for hell to freeze over?
checking local weather in E. Ukraine, there is only rain forecasted for the next 7 days. Also light snow. I still do not see the heavy snow followed by the freeze yet

Northern Ukraine (Russia border) is colder than the Donbass /Kherson areas. The North should now be having only snow and no rain.
The Donbass is also less conducive to mechanized operations, since it is an almost continuously built up area, interspersed with coal pits.

The problem when moving cross country is the sub-soil, not so much what is on top. In the rains, the wet soil tends to suck in vehicles. In winter, the moisture under the soil freezes, making the ground hard enough to handle heavy vehicles. On the surface the problem is water that freezes at night, causing slippery ice, or the impression that the ground is hard and smooth, rather than a deep puddle, with a thin layer of snow on top.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 28 Dec 2022 09:52

Gyan wrote:Russia needs more than Tanks, what is Russian production rate of :-

Aircraft
Bombers
Helos
SAMs
Even Recce Satellites
AWACS
ELINT aircraft
AAMs etc

Production figures are a state secret. Russians have been conditioned for decades not to talk about them, so take any figures with a pinch of salt.
Some data that is in the public domain;

1. They launched 2 satellites in Aug. At least one is being used over Ukraine.
2. There are ongoing contracts to deliver 10 Mi-28 & 14 Ka-52 helicopters a year. I expect this production rate can be doubled.
3. No new programs for building AWAC & ELINT aircraft (which have very old airframes), so I expect existing aircraft will be modernised.
4. SAM's are not deemed important to Russia for this war. Russia has apparently decided not to deploy the S-400 as it would NATO intel about its
capabilities. The threat is mostly drones and HIMARS and these are being shot down by less expensive means.

The bottlenecks for being able to quickly equip new formations are things like:
- Capacity to refurbish/ replace the barrel of artillery guns.
- Truck capacity - Storage locations are being shifted further back, to protect them from drones & HIMARS.
- Sensors and sophisticated electronics for replacement / new production.

mody · Post by **mody** » 28 Dec 2022 15:08

I suspect that Russia will not launch any large scale offensive in this war. They will simply consolidate their positions and make some incremental gains in the Donbas region and Zaporizhia. In Kherson, they will simply remain on the east side of the river and consolidate their position.

Any small pockets that can consolidate their positions further, either help in the defense or help with the logistics, will be targeted.
Russia will continue targeting Ukrainian infrastructure and their military, will avoid launching large scale sweeping offensive.

In this strategy, the people in Ukraine will suffer, as the power, water and transport infrastructure crumbles and a further 3-4 months of the same will lead to people to start pleading for peace. Along with this, the continued loss of life of Ukrainian conscripts will continue.

Holding the stalemate will not be an option for UAF and they will have to try and will have to undertake some offensive action. This would lead to large scale loss of life, as Russia has already re-inforced their positions and also replenished the ammo and supplies. Any offensive action by UAF is almost doomed to fail.
Also, UAF is entirely bankrolled by the west. The euros have already reduced their supply of weapons and very soon may altogether stop the supply of weapons.
The US will also find it increasingly difficult to continue the supply of weapons and money.

Russia can simply consolidate its positions and hold the defensive line and wait for the west to tire in this fight. If the weapons and money start drying up, Ukraine will have to negotiate. It would have no other options. Russia can negotiate and agree to give up some of the parts that it has captured, while keeping most of Luhansk and Donetsk and Crimea. Also, it would get security guarantees of Ukraine never being able to join NATO and maybe also some limits on the size and composition of its military.

In the short term Russia would suffer economically, but it would have still gained two very productive regions of Ukraine and gained territory and population. Ukraine would be ruins, with no one really willing to pay for the rebuilding. In the medium term also, Russia's economy would most probably remain stagnant or on a low growth trajectory and its dependence on China would grow.
In the short and medium term, Ukraine would suffer more.
Europe would suffer in the short run, as the economy tanks, the divisions within the countries widen and energy security remains threatened. In the medium term, they would probably come back to Russia for the energy supplies in some form or the other.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 28 Dec 2022 17:43

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is viewed as a threat by the whole of Europe (with the possible exception of Hungary). Europe and the US will continue to support Ukraine financially and with military equipment. President Putin will find that he is in a significantly worse position geopolitically, militarily and economically because of his invasion of Ukraine. There will be no gains for Russia from this war. Positions against Russia are hardening further because of the attack on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 28 Dec 2022 21:27

^^ other way round, some time back read, in US people are caring less for Ukr war (defeat) than before https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2 ... -lessened/

similar articles keep appearing in Europe, fear is such that any channel of communication with Russia (like RT news) is blocked instantly , after Elon take over twitter has become saner place still Elon doesn't have courage to unblock Russian news on twitter

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 28 Dec 2022 22:02

^^^
US Congress approved a $45 billion aid package for Ukraine earlier this month. Huge bipartisan support.

The EU also just approved €18 billion for Ukraine (circumvented Hungary’s veto, and also blocked €22bn of funding for Hungary).

This will continue for as along as required.

These are highly affordable sums compared with the financial means of the US, EU, Japan, UK, Australia, etc. and the manifest threat posed by Russia to the security of Europe.

https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-coop ... h-ukraine/

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pressco ... 28.pdf.pdf

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 29 Dec 2022 03:27

I thought appetites were diminishing and power was running out and people were freezing.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 29 Dec 2022 03:34

All that money won't be given to Pakraine in one go. It would be disbursed in tranches. There might be a rethink early next year. But then GOP is as greedy as Dems to make money off of this war and any others that might come up in the next year.

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 29 Dec 2022 04:37

ks_sachin wrote:I thought appetites were diminishing and power was running out and people were freezing.

Bunch of new videos on twitter of Geran strikes tonight. All of the videos across Uks show dark with barely lit cities. I am talking abt major ones. Kharkov , Kriv etc.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 29 Dec 2022 05:34

Aid to Ukraine Explained in Six Charts
November 18, 2022

Any "military" monies are part of the lend/lease program. Ukraine is getting military items for which she has to pay back sometime in the future!!! The military assistance package helps US MIC and US politicians - UKR is getting old arms, stored somewhere for years. And, the nations that are giving will get brand new replacements.

Q2: What is the aid for?

A2: The aid covers dozens of individual items, but these can be grouped into four general categories:

* Military aid (discussed separately below);
* Humanitarian assistance (discussed separately below);
* Economic support to the Ukrainian government, which goes directly to the Ukrainian government to allow continuing operations since the war has disrupted its own mechanisms for raising revenue; and
* U.S. government operations and domestic costs related to Ukraine, which covers the increased expenses to government agencies for operations like moving embassy personnel and prosecuting war criminals. It also includes $2 billion for support to energy companies, particularly the nuclear industry, to offset higher supplier costs. Some observers might exclude the energy subsidy as only tangentially related to the war in Ukraine. This tabulation includes the item since the administration categorized it as Ukraine related.

Q3: What is in the military aid to Ukraine?

A3: Military aid in the three congressionally enacted packages consists of four elements.

* Short-Term Military Support ($17 billion): This includes the transfer of weapons, both U.S. weapons and those purchased from allies, training of Ukrainian military personnel, and intelligence sharing. Much of this funding flows through the Ukrainian Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which acts as a transfer account. Technically, the appropriations cover only the backfill equipment sent to Ukraine, not the equipment itself, but the two have been closely aligned.

* Long-Term Military Support ($10.4 billion): This consists of money that Ukraine can use to buy new weapons, mostly from the United States but also elsewhere. The problem is that these need to be manufactured, so there is a long delay. As a result, this likely funds postwar rebuilding the Ukrainian military, not current operations. (Because the USIA funds both long term and short-term support, the split is an estimate.) Confusion sometimes arises because DOD announcements state that United States has “committed” certain amounts of military equipment to Ukraine― for example, a recent fact sheet stated that “in total, the United States has committed more than $18.5 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden Administration.” This combines the short-term and long-term support.

* U.S. Military Operations ($9.6 billion): In the spring, the United States sent about 18,000 troops to Europe to strengthen defenses and deter Russia. These deployments cost money above what was planned in the DOD budget.

* DOD General Support ($1.2 billion): This covers a wide variety of activities, some only tangentially related to Ukraine, to prepare DOD for future conflicts.

Q4: How long will it take to spend the $68 billion that has been enacted?

A4: The short answer: a long time.

Congress appropriates money, called budget authority, and then the executive branch spends the money, called outlays. That can happen relatively quickly as in the case of funding for personnel where money goes into paychecks that get cashed most immediately. Money for operations also gets spent relatively quickly as the agency, whether DOD for military operations or U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) for humanitarian relief, buys supplies and transportation for immediate use.

However, procurement funds for equipment take many years to spend out because the government pays the supplier incrementally as work is done. For the kinds of equipment being procured to support Ukraine, it takes about a year to get onto contract, then two more years before the first item is delivered and another year or more for the remaining items to be delivered. That means that money Congress appropriates in year one does not get fully spent until year five.

Some items, for example incentives for mining of rare earths, may take even longer to spend out because the process of establishing a mine is so lengthy.

Congress requires the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to “score” every bill that Congress votes on. Scoring means calculating the budget effects, both budget authority and outlays. This chart combines the CBO outlay estimates for the March, May, and September packages. Note that about $10 billion of the $68 billion will not be spent until after FY 2026. (Estimates for the latest $37.7 billion package are not yet available.)

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 29 Dec 2022 11:01

^^^
The charts above exclude the impact of the $45bn package passed by the US Congress in December. The €18bn from the EU is for 2023.

As for Russia, the damage has started and will accumulate:

* Russia used to supply approximately 200 billion cubic metres (about 40% of demand) of natural gas to Europe annually. This has slowed down to a trickle. 2023 will show a full year’s impact

* Russia oil exports to Europe (previously its largest market) are also now banned. Sales to China and India are at a discount of about $25/barrel. Even if production and export volumes are maintained (unlikely), the revenue earned will be significantly lower.

* Huge number of educated young men have left the country to avoid being sent to the war front: this will damage productivity and demand (long term damage)

* Companies from G7, EU, and other countries (risk of secondary sanctions is very high) will stop investing / pull back from Russia. Loss of investment, employment, expertise, productivity. The long term damage will accumulate.

* Global natural resource and industrial supply chains will reconfigure to exclude Russia.

Russia’s economy is heading in the direction of N Korea and Iran. It’s dependence on China will increase.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 29 Dec 2022 13:10

ks_sachin wrote:
NRao wrote:BTW, late last night Garland Nixon mentioned that India has no choice but to join Russia and China. And, that Russia was trying to broker between waring India and China.

India cannot straddle this divide.
NRao

Why do we not have a choice?

Is there something preventing us from joining the US camp?

The world is indeed bifurcating. On one side you have China, N Korea, Pakistan, Iran and Russia. On the other side you have US, Canada, EU, UK, Israel, Japan, S Korea, Australia, etc. India does not want to join either side: we cherish our independence. Nevertheless, it’s clear that the US led side has greater potential for supporting India’s development and growth. China’s unrelenting hostility towards India is also “repelling” India towards the US led side. In the face of the overwhelming hostility shown by CPC/PLA (and their pet monsters in the ISI) towards India, it’s simply not credible to imagine that India would somehow end up on the China-led side. India is on India’s side and the US led side can help us face down the security challenges posed by China and Pakistan. Russia has shot itself in the foot … unfortunately!

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 29 Dec 2022 14:51

what to say when members are confusing Biden's $B donation to Ukraine with people'e opinion on Earth

more confusion being added with how west is a powerful pole ityadi ....not even mentioning who went to Saudi few days back crawling at feet of someone US was boasting to arrest.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 29 Dec 2022 16:47

Public opinion in the West is firmly on Ukraine’s side. Support and funding for Ukraine will continue. President Biden, to his credit, did what is in his country’s interests, even if it made his campaign statements sound a bit silly. He put his country’s interests above his ego; a good trait for a leader, I think.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 29 Dec 2022 21:09

eklavya wrote:^^^
The charts above exclude the impact of the $45bn package passed by the US Congress in December. The €18bn from the EU is for 2023.

The very first chart does - under proposed. (Recall that report was written in early November and the funds voted on in late December)

The other charts do not because the US Congress has voted to send $45 billion, but has not yet distributed the funds. However, fully expect the distribution to be over many years - as shown in the next chart.

As for Russia, the damage has started and will accumulate:

Possible. Probable?

While the statistics provided seem valid, there is nothing to indicate any decline at any time in the future. Short term:

Bank of Russia wrote: According to the Bank of Russia’s preliminary estimate, the current account surplus of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation in January—November 2022 continued to expand and amounted to $225.7 billion, having increased by more than 2 times compared to the corresponding period of 2021.

So, Russia has a trade surplus of some $110 billion in 11 months (yoy). More than the aid provided to Ukraine by many nations.

Long-term, TBD. However, with the hollowing out of the EU, anything could happen (in fact I have made the argument, elsewhere, that Indian exports to the EU would decline). Iran and Saudis have been talking for 2 whole years and I just do not see anyone taking that into consideration. The point being "long term" there has never been more uncertainty (more in the fallout thread) than we have today. There are just too many moving parts to make any judgment with certainty.

I just do not see anything hurting Russia. Russia is sitting on $72 trillion of natural resources (which is what the Neocons want and are waging this war in UKR) and next up is the US at $45 trillion. As long as Russia has a stable political system I do not see anything happening to them. They have a very robust MIC to add to their resources.

I do see things hurting China. But, more on that elsewhere.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 29 Dec 2022 21:52

Ukarine's govt needs 2-3 Bn USD / Month to run. This allocation will not line anyones pocket in Washington. So that part will hurt.
+
How US' support for Ukraine will shape in next years will actually depend upon China. What is that China does. If it plans to attack India bfr Taiwan then US can continue helping Ukraine cz if China attacks India it wont be in a shape to attack taiwan or anyone else. But if taiwan is on menu first, then expect US to focus there.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 29 Dec 2022 22:05

People should google Col Andrew Milburn. At the very least you will be kept entertained.