Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[vinod]

- If they do not win by 2023, NATO production will ramp up and outproduce Russia, which will fight a battle of attrition it cannot win.

There is the nuclear option. Basically attack Poland and kick off nuclear war.

[Jay]

There is the nuclear option. Basically attack Poland and kick off nuclear war.

Is this the same Russia that refuses to declare this war as a total war but instead pretend this is a "special operation" for domestic consumption?

[NRao]

My view based on this:
- Russia can only carry out a limited expansion of its army, as they do not have the corresponding numbers of artillery, ammo & air support.
- If they do not win by 2023, NATO production will ramp up and outproduce Russia, which will fight a battle of attrition it cannot win.

* China has a lot to lose if US wins this war. I know, whether China will help is not a cold headed maths calculation like you did for ammo, do you think it can supply Russia ?

I do not think India can afford to be on the sideline either. Actually, none of the nations in the Global South can.

Why would any nation in Europe look for Russia's defeat? The leadership of the European Union, yes, they are after all Neocons and are participating in the destruction of European nations (they get a huge cut)

As an example: Dec 29, 2022 :: Italy’s Meloni Urges EU to Work on Way to Counter US Aid Package

There are other European leaders demanding such action - the news outlets have suppressed their voices.

* Secondly, I have said this many times, this is a multispectral war. If Russia cannot meet her war demands, which I do not think will happen, then there are other means, like economics, to prevent NATO from ramping up production - in every Western nation there are politicians and industrialists that are with Russia. An example: Greek shipping magnets - they have opposed the G-7 setting oil caps.

* In the past few days there have been a few unverifiable reports that Russia will settle oil payments in either gold or yuan. In addition, Russia is planning on reducing oil output.

A LOT of moving parts that will affect the direction this war will move in. I just do not think it is right to consider just one element in isolation and arrive at conclusions

[NRao]

There is the nuclear option. Basically attack Poland and kick off nuclear war.

Is this the same Russia that refuses to declare this war as a total war but instead pretend this is a "special operation" for domestic consumption?

Every nation has a set of laws that kick in when that nation declares war. And, therefore there are costs. When the time comes Russia will declare war - follow Lavrov or even Putin's speeches.

[ks_sachin]

Deans /NRao,

What additional resources are availablr if Putin delares it a war as against the current SMO?

Will it change anything on the battlefield?

[Deans]

A LOT of work @Deans. Thanks!!

Any such analysis on "missile"?

Its easier to hide missile production, as facilities are smaller. Any data is a guess. All western guesses so far were wrong, as far as missiles go.
For artillery and tank production there is data on value of sales from the factory & orders placed (past production). Satellites can track for e.g.
the number of workers entering a plant, or the number of tanks being loaded on trains at a factory.

Some figures from Ukrainian data, on Russian missile stocks before the war, which seem credible.
Iskander SSM - 900
S-300 (SAM but now used as SSM) - 8000
S-400 (SAM not used so far)
Kalibr (Sea launched) - 500
Onyx (Sea launched) - 470
KH-555/101 (Air launched) - 444
KH-22 & 25 (Air launched) - 870

Russia's production in 10 months of 2022, was estimated by Ukraine to be 48 Iskandar, 120 Kalibr & 120 KH series missiles.

Ukrainian calculations are that Russia (end Nov) had half its pre war stock, after considering production during 2022. For the Iskandar, its
estimated that 90% of stocks have been used. The RA is believed to have sent older Tochka-U missiles to one of its rocket brigades, which had
earlier been equipped with the Iskandar.

[NRao]

Thanks Deans. That picture is rather bleak.

[NRao]

On declaration of war in Russia, I do not know. One thing I have heard in "mobilisation".

What I would expect is Russia closes her borders and pretty much suspends all trade - the nation becomes a bubble, until further notice. Laws are suspended (Marshall law). Military Mobilisation (control over people). Finance (the authority to print money will go from Reserve Bank of Russia to gov)(Marshall law already in place). Military typically takes over all modes of transportation (including personal cars, airlines (happened when the US left Afghanistan, yes), ships, trains,etc). And, finally industry - they will be repurposed for war supplies (one reason i am not that concerned about current Russian capacities).

Essentially, military control over everything.

BTW, Medvedev has been made the head of a newly constituted group/committee that is responsible for war supplies. He has something going - I do not follow that aspect very closely - too much translation to get one data point.

I have mentioned "model" a few times in another thread. While casually researching a US-China "war", I found that Chinese manufacturing facilities along the South China Sea coast have been designed to switch to making war supplies at the drop of a hat!!!! Clusters of facilities can function independently - they have their own power, water, etc, supplies!! Very Impressive. China, imo, is very well prepared for a sizzling war on her coast.

[YashG]

One enemy less today is better than two weak tomorrow

minus russia today > russia + china weak tomorrow

West today prefers this even at the expense of likelihood of russia becoming subservient to China. Because before Russia goes kaput - it will simply allow Xi a deal he can not refuse. Since west is not facing direct wrath from China they are focusing more on Russia just like they didnt focus on terrorism till it didnt come to their home. India faces china today.

[ks_sachin]

Thanks NRao.

The picture is bleak.

Lets see who has the greater resolve.

[Cyrano]

Russia is not becoming subservient to China. Please check Putin's new year speech. He hammers about true strategic independence. Rapprochement is != subservient. Russia knows where China's weaknesses are, idem for China. Its a marriage of convenience, not true convergence and even less congruence. After the experience with the western system, why would Russia blindly tie itself into a Chinese "system" which doesnt even exist?

Russia's relations with China and India are based on different parameters. With China it is utility, with India it is trust.

Putin has asked India's help rather publicly in sourcing various industrial components, auto parts etc. Indian govt has no such production facilities under its direct control, cant bend private industry to its will like China, and Indian companies dont want to make the effort to go do business with Russia and deal with the complexity, hardships and possible western sanctions when there is easy money to be made elsewhere. So India is a good trusted friend but not very useful in critical situations. OTOH we have resisted US pressure and have continued to place orders for S400s and other stuff we need. We have also increased oil purchases and have stepped up barter deals. Russia knows what India can and cant do, but most importantly we are predictable and reliable in what we do. And they value that.

[Pratyush]

If the Russian state was going to fold. Then they would not have gone on the offensive in Feb of 2022.

Regardless of what anyone is saying about what's happening in Ukraine. The Russians are going to see this through.

The only question is the elections due in 2024 and who will win it.

But given the fact that even the Yeltsin government was contesting NATO expansion. I will not be too optimistic about the future Russian government agreeing to a Ukrainian NATO membership.

[nandakumar]

Russia is not becoming subservient to China. Please check Putin's new year speech. He hammers about true strategic independence. Rapprochement is != subservient. Russia knows where China's weaknesses are, idem for China. Its a marriage of convenience, not true convergence and even less congruence. After the experience with the western system, why would Russia blindly tie itself into a Chinese "system" which doesnt even exist?

Russia's relations with China and India are based on different parameters. With China it is utility, with India it is trust.

Putin has asked India's help rather publicly in sourcing various industrial components, auto parts etc. Indian govt has no such production facilities under its direct control, cant bend private industry to its will like China, and Indian companies dont want to make the effort to go do business with Russia and deal with the complexity, hardships and possible western sanctions when there is easy money to be made elsewhere. So India is a good trusted friend but not very useful in critical situations. OTOH we have resisted US pressure and have continued to place orders for S400s and other stuff we need. We have also increased oil purchases and have stepped up barter deals. Russia knows what India can and cant do, but most importantly we are predictable and reliable in what we do. And they value that.

Cyrano
I feel, if Russia is really keen, it can do Government to Government deals where India can source items that Russia wants through PSU entities such as STC and MMTC and they in turn can source goods from domestic enterprises and thereby insulate domestic private enterprise from Western sanctions. STC and MMTC had a crucial role when the country had stringent import and foreign exchange controls. But today private enterprises have near total freedom to source goods and capital and hence MMTC and STC roles have become marginalized. They are therefore not so constrained by the threat of Western sanctions. They can also route transactions through PSU banks that do not have a footprint in the West. Recall that at the height of Iran sanctions UCO Bank made a neat little profit in Indo Iranian trade. So precedent exists.

[IndraD]

Z sounds alert after Putin vows to avenge Makeevka

[Deans]

Z sounds alert after Putin vows to avenge Makeevka

A similar Russian attack a few hours ago. Targets hit were a ice hockey arena housing Ukrainian troops and a railway yard unloading artillery including HIMARS and their missiles. Ukraine channels have shown the damage to the arena. Russian channels showed the huge blaze at the railway yard.

[IndraD]

Russia claims to have struck Himars base in Ukraine, several ukrops eliminated

[IndraD]

https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1 ... U7Iz1ksPyw Missile strike in Druzhkovka (south of Kramatorsk) caught live on French TV.

[chaitanya]

Hi Deans,

Thanks for the detailed analysis! Any idea why the RuAF has been missing in action (or so it seems)? Seeing videos of trench warfare using drones dropping little grenades makes me wonder why a 500kg bomb isn't being used instead. Is Russia worried about the SAM/MANPAD threat or do they think the accuracy of their munitions are poor? If RuAF was active, maybe it would give the artillery a break...

[ks_sachin]

The RuAF or even the erstwhile Soviet AF never had a properly defined role in support of grounf forces. The Soviet AF was a very command guided AF with little scope for pilot initiative.

[chaitanya]

Interesting, so did Syria represent a deviation from their typical doctrine? It seemed like there RuAF was bombing many ground targets in support… what’s the thinking behind this? What is the AF supposed to be used for?

[Deans]

Interesting, so did Syria represent a deviation from their typical doctrine? It seemed like there RuAF was bombing many ground targets in support… what’s the thinking behind this? What is the AF supposed to be used for?

There's a US report analyzing Russian air power in Syria. Free download:
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_repo ... 170-1.html

They had one squadron of each aircraft type deployed in Syria (SU-30, 34 & 35), and rotated, to give combat experience to its air force.
Russia claimed an availability of 90% of its aircraft in Syria, which seems remarkably high in combat, in a base thousands of miles from home.
That may have led to the belief that this was true of the entire Russian air force - which in reality may not be more than 50%.

Even with these sophisticated aircraft, over 90% of bombs dropped were unguided. There were few PGMs used. Unguided bombs could be used
because there was no significant threat of SAMs and no concern for civilian casualties. Even without a SAM threat, they lost 6 aircraft and 8
helicopters. The Syrian air force, which flew more sorties than the Russians, had higher losses, but all old aircraft (Mig 21 & 23 and SU-24).

RAND report highlights that in Syria, there was poor base security, poor target identification & recon, lack of inter theatre cooperation and suggested this may be a liability in future (which it has been in Ukraine).

[Cain Marko]

The RuAF or even the erstwhile Soviet AF never had a properly defined role in support of grounf forces. The Soviet AF was a very command guided AF with little scope for pilot initiative.

How is pilot initiative related to ground support role?

[Deans]

The RuAF or even the erstwhile Soviet AF never had a properly defined role in support of grounf forces. The Soviet AF was a very command guided AF with little scope for pilot initiative.

How is pilot initiative related to ground support role?

Soviet doctrine was for the pilot to be told what to do, not take initiative himself. In an air to air role, interceptions were directed by ground control or an AWAC, not the pilot's radar. In ground attack, the target was identified before take off and coordinates fed in. No other target could be engaged. At best the flight leader could suggest an alternate target.

Interestingly for the first manned space flight, The USSR chose 25 y.o Yuri Gagarin, (Valentina Tereshkova was a 26 y.o mill worker ), whereas US astronauts were 40+ y.o experienced pilots, because US astronauts were expected to think for themselves in Space.

In the Ukraine context, there is a big time lag between a target being identified and either artillery or aircraft engaging it. I'm not sure if pilots are allowed to remain in the area and ask the local friendly unit for an alternate target, or use their initiative to locate one. More likely, if they are asked to attack a tank unit and a flight of aircraft does not find tanks, they will drop their bombs anyway and claim a couple of tanks destroyed. This has led to ludicrous claims by Russian MOD of Russia destroying more tanks/APCs and artillery than the entire qty of usable Soviet built inventory NATO has. e.g. 957 MLRS systems and 3750 artillery guns.

Similarly, the battalion commander of the unit that was attacked with HIMARS when they slept, would know better than to question orders that
assigned 2 of his companies to sleep in 1 building, next to ammo storage. He would instead be punished for poor Op-sec by his men - one of them used a cellphone that gave their position away.

[IndraD]

US is hitting Russia using a proxy with state of art weapons yet Russia is not hitting back at US bases, any method in madness, or pure limitation or it would mean MAD? whatever it shows Russia as a weak state unable to take fight to where it matters, also there has been no response to Nord2 blown

[chaitanya]

Thanks for the info Deans and ks_sachin. Things make more sense now… the lack of ‘pilot initiative’ makes it sound like RuAF treats its fighters almost like intelligent missiles

[ks_sachin]

As much as I want Ru to win indraD what do you think after reading Deans posts on the state of the Ru army?

Was Russia - not the Soviet State - Russia ever in a position to compete against the Americans in a conventional manner?

[Deans]

US is hitting Russia using a proxy with state of art weapons yet Russia is not hitting back at US bases, any method in madness, or pure limitation or it would mean MAD? whatever it shows Russia as a weak state unable to take fight to where it matters, also there has been no response to Nord2 blown

There is no proven US involvement in attacks on Russia (i.e. US has done it, Russia can't prove it), if there is, it would be a drastic escalation by
NATO. If Russia has to retaliate, either they have to use proxies (ISIS armed with captured stinger Manpads ?) or leave no evidence (e.g. blowing up a undersea gas pipeline, like Nord stream).

[Deans]

The temperature across Ukraine drops to -20 and below from Fri. The ground will be frozen solid. If there is no Russian offensive then, it isn't going to happen. There do not seem to be any more Russian trains with armored vehicles moving to the front, or newly mobilized troops still undergoing training.

[IndraD]

Mobile phone usage by Russian soldiers gave away their position

[NRao]

@Deans,

Any thoughts/opinions on Russian EW - very specifically?

Have they invested disproportionately (as compared to the West) in that area (perhaps along with "missiles")?

[IndraD]

Apparently US is sending BMP Bradley armored vehicle to ukraine (250) https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/bi ... 023-01-04/

Norway has transferred to Ukraine 10 thousand artillery shells of 155-mm caliber from the arsenals of its own army.

(If Russia can't acknowledge this as declaration of war on Russia by West, nothing will)

[IndraD]

Russia sent a frigate armed with the country's latest Zircon hypersonic missile on a trans-ocean cruise in a show of force as tensions with the West escalate over the war in Ukraine. https://apnews.com/article/putin-techno ... ce=Twitter

[Jay]

Mobile phone usage by Russian soldiers gave away their position

Same mistakes from Day 1 and at this point it might be apt to say that Russian soldiers/generals/formations are incapable of learning any lessons. Even during Balakot strike, India pinpointed cell phone co-ordinates of paki vermin and using these in conjunction with other intel, eliminated them.

From Week1 of this conflict, we have been hearing how NATO is able to track Russian soldiers using their usage of cell phones and pass these coordinates to UKR, still after 1 year into this combat there seems to be no combat discipline amongst Russian troops. It's not even UKR bravado, but Russian stupidity that's leading to these kinds of losses.

[V_Raman]

I dont undertand why soldiers should take mobile phones in wartime - seriously !!

[fanne]

a Lesson here, do our soldiers in JK, or on LAC take cell phones? Even if they don't use it (but keep it on), chinese/TSP towers can triangulate and know where they have been, where their bunkers are, what is the routine, where is officer mess vs jawan etc etc.. If they have US like capability, they can spoof our towers and know that.

[ks_sachin]

I dont undertand why soldiers should take mobile phones in wartime - seriously !!

Because the Russian army is not a very professional one! I said this from day one.

[NRao]

American soldiers use cells very often. So do Israeli soldiers.

But, those that opposed those Americans that broke rules (no use of cells in certain areas) never had the sophisticated techs that those opposing the Russians today do.

In every situation, there are rules to be followed. And, if those rules are not followed then this is what can happen.

[ks_sachin]

Our troops also have access to cell phones. The Chinese and Pakistanis know where our pickets are as we know where theirs are.

[ks_sachin]

a Lesson here, do our soldiers in JK, or on LAC take cell phones? Even if they don't use it (but keep it on), chinese/TSP towers can triangulate and know where they have been, where their bunkers are, what is the routine, where is officer mess vs jawan etc etc.. If they have US like capability, they can spoof our towers and know that.

Fanne when they are deployed in fwd positions there is no offrs mess per se. All the Companies are in their AoR so no question of all offrs getting together at meal time.

Food is cooked in the bunker or delivered but this depends I think.

[morem]

Our troops also have access to cell phones. The Chinese and Pakistanis know where our pickets are as we know where theirs are.

In 'India's most fearless' they mention soldiers in CI ops in Kashmir carrying cellphones on long range patrols.