Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 05 Jan 2023 07:35

Folks commenting on Russian army discipline etc based on a single report of cellphone usage might be reading too much of western propaganda. These guys are the first in history to kill a high-value target(Dzhokar Dudayev) using sat-phone emission triangulation. One of the core actions of an ELINT unit is to look for ALL emissions including own side’s. Across world, if own side has suspect signals due to lack of discipline, severe action happens against officers during wartime. As per reports/studies posted above Russians seem to have ramped up a vigorous EW campaign and blue side emissions would be a priority even for their civilian intel guys since their security apparatus are paranoid of moles since Napoleonic times .

So assuming their frontline troops don’t know signal discipline and posting about it here as a fact is dodgy, to put it politely

We really don’t have much insight into whether those targeted are border guard/ Donbass civilian militia/paramilitary or frontline troops etc. militias are notoriously less disciplined all over the world. We won’t know what is the scene over in that warfront seem to be the short answer.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 05 Jan 2023 08:21

NRao wrote:American soldiers use cells very often. So do Israeli soldiers.

Rao ji, do you mean American soldiers using cell phones during combat ops in Iraq, Afg or during overseas base deployments like in Japan, Korea, Germany? I was under the impression that there are no personal cell phones issues/permitted or even possible for US troops in Iraq, and Afghanistan.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 05 Jan 2023 09:02

NRao wrote:@Deans,

Any thoughts/opinions on Russian EW - very specifically?

Have they invested disproportionately (as compared to the West) in that area (perhaps along with "missiles")?

They are weak in EW compared to NATO. This is something both Putin and the defense minister acknowledged in the published accounts of their
addresses to the military. For e.g. they have only just got the equivalent of the JDAM kit, which converts dumb bombs to smart ones and which US has been using for 20 years now (and supplied to Ukraine). Similarly, it is only now that one of their AWACS has been modified to track land targets (the equivalent of US Joint STARS). The Russian leadership publicly acknowledged their pre war weakness in drones.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 05 Jan 2023 09:03

Hnair sir,

But its not just this one example is it amd not just from Western sources. My view of the Russian Armed Forces has also been formed from other credible sources and Deans has also corroborated the state of affairs.

So where there is smoke….. as the saying goes.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 05 Jan 2023 09:19

hnair wrote: So assuming their frontline troops don’t know signal discipline and posting about it here as a fact is dodgy, to put it politely

We really don’t have much insight into whether those targeted are border guard/ Donbass civilian militia/paramilitary or frontline troops etc. militias are notoriously less disciplined all over the world. We won’t know what is the scene over in that warfront seem to be the short answer.

I mentioned cellphone use in my earlier post. My point was not that someone used it (or not), but that there is a deeper malaise in the Russian army of covering up for top leadership incompetence. The Battalion commander of a newly mobilised unit, with no local knowledge of the area, was allotted a sleeping area for his men, which was against normal regulations (3-400 men under one roof) and next to ammo storage. He knows that if he ( an officer recalled on a temp basis) complains about the decision of his CO (a permanent officer), he will find he gets less artillery or air support - or hot meals, from his brigade/Div. Nevertheless, since half his men are dead, he decides to complain anyway and finds he faces disciplinary action because one of his men allegedly used a cellphone.

A point being made in Russian channels is that although the men would normally maintain `signals discipline' by not using a cellphone - on NY eve they may have called home to wish, as is the tradition in Russia. Its not a big deal to borrow a phone from a local civilian to make a NY call.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 05 Jan 2023 09:28

Jay wrote:
NRao wrote:American soldiers use cells very often. So do Israeli soldiers.

Rao ji, do you mean American soldiers using cell phones during combat ops in Iraq, Afg or during overseas base deployments like in Japan, Korea, Germany? I was under the impression that there are no personal cell phones issues/permitted or even possible for US troops in Iraq, and Afghanistan.

In Afghanistan, the enemy is not sophisticated enough to listen in, or trace the cell phone calls. My understanding is that calls are made from rear area bases - whose location is known and not from Forward operating bases (FOB).

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 05 Jan 2023 11:49

U.S. Edges Closer to sending armored weapons to Ukraine

Biden says Bradley Fighting Vehicles are on the table for Ukraine

The Army has thousands of Bradleys, which could give the Ukrainians more firepower on the battlefield. Biden's move, however, is short of sending Abrams tanks to Ukraine, which the Ukrainians have been requesting.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 05 Jan 2023 14:09

The Ukranian's are dealing with Insane diversity in the weapons being supplied to them, imagine the various types of spare parts, training manuals etc to be used.

It is said during operation Barborossa the Germans initially used 2000 different types of trucks for logistics, lots of captured French, Check, British equipment from the 1939 and 1940 campaigns, by the time they got to Moscow most of these were done as it was impossible to repair them in the feild.
After which horse drawn carts played a huge role in the German supply chains.

I foresee many of Ukranian equipment meeting the same fate, imagine having to move these from Poland to the Donbass and back to Poland for repairs and spare parts coming from the home countries.

And the only reasons these are required because the earlier Ukranian and Nato supplied Eastern block weapons have probably been lost- which the Ukranians had been well trained on. And with total silence of losses, based on past experiences, only sides loosing a lot keep total silence on casualties and losses

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 05 Jan 2023 15:46

What I find strange is that the Ukrainien forces did not use cell phones to wish their near and dear in the same period, or even if they did, the Russian forces did not prepare for such a scenario, detect the usage and fire at those positions as was done to them.

This is something Russians are definitely capable of doing and have done it in the past.

So while cell phone usage could have happened and positions were given away, the real mistake is the numbers concentrated next to an ammo depot. If this were not the case, the casualties could have been just a handful.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 05 Jan 2023 16:46

Ukraine Keeps Downing Russian Drones, but Price Tag Is High
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/03/worl ... %20Tuesday

The Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones that Moscow has increasingly been relying on since October are relatively uncomplicated devices and fairly cheap, while the array of weapons used to shoot them out of the sky can be much pricier, according to experts. The self-destructing drones can cost as little as $20,000 to produce, while the cost of firing a surface-to-air missile can range from $140,000 for a Soviet-era S-300 to $500,000 for a missile from an American NASAMS.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 05 Jan 2023 17:48

Cyrano wrote:What I find strange is that the Ukrainien forces did not use cell phones to wish their near and dear in the same period, or even if they did, the Russian forces did not prepare for such a scenario, detect the usage and fire at those positions as was done to them.

This is something Russians are definitely capable of doing and have done it in the past.

So while cell phone usage could have happened and positions were given away, the real mistake is the numbers concentrated next to an ammo depot. If this were not the case, the casualties could have been just a handful.

There was a Russian missile strike on a ice hockey arena, where a lot of Ukrainians were sleeping (with MLRS artillery being unloaded nearby). The Russians may have found the location the same way as Ukrainians.
The most likely way in my view is that a civilian sees soldiers getting into their base (unavoidable in an urban area) and makes a call. One can't figure out if a civilian is pro Russia or Ukraine.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 05 Jan 2023 19:33

I guess the concern is that cell phones or wearable watches provide a continuous update of where you are. It is like you are providing your enemy free ISR information. Technology has marched ahead that it is now possible to know where you are (with phones and watches) precisely and you can be killed with a precise shot. Both Russia and Ukraine (west) have this capability and it has been demonstrated in the field (it is not theoretical anymore). Why do you think the chinese have a huge three cell phone towers at their end on the banks of Pangong lake? For us, the task is very cut out -
1. Acquire similar capability asap
2. Come with some kind of phones/watches for forces where they do not provide continuous updates (we have made some progress, there is army specific messaging service, not WhatsApp or telegram).
3. Strict training on these aspects

Just saying all is well and we are super duper is IMHO not right.

This war has shown few thing, we can learn from it, someone have spilled enormous blood for these lessons -
1) you need huge, quickly scalable production capacity for your ammunition
2) Drones of many types, mostly cheap (not fancy MQ-9s, $100 million each) have a very disproportionate effect on the battlefield. also demonstrated in Armenia's war.
3) Joint operations are the way to go (at least between armor and infantry)
4) Anti-tank weapons, and suicide drones are very effective against tanks, artillery, radars, and concealed position, plus many more scenerios.... Air superiority or lack of it has zero effect on it (IAF has consistently argued against acquiring drones saying they are vulnerable, true only for large drones, not for cheap ones and the cheap ones have a huge role to play, we should get on with the project in a large way (not token numbers)).
5) Of course everything will get weaponized, financial system, FX, trades etc etc.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 05 Jan 2023 20:12

Fanne sir,

You missed a few important ones.

1. Proper strategy
2. Never underestimating the enemy and planning for the worst case
3. Ensuring you have the capacity to prosecute your strategy
4. Well trained and motivated soldiers, NCOs and uunior officers
5. Sound intel

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 05 Jan 2023 22:19

Jay wrote:
NRao wrote:American soldiers use cells very often. So do Israeli soldiers.

Rao ji, do you mean American soldiers using cell phones during combat ops in Iraq, Afg or during overseas base deployments like in Japan, Korea, Germany? I was under the impression that there are no personal cell phones issues/permitted or even possible for US troops in Iraq, and Afghanistan.

One cell phone per GF!!!!

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 05 Jan 2023 22:20

Deans wrote:
Cyrano wrote:What I find strange is that the Ukrainien forces did not use cell phones to wish their near and dear in the same period, or even if they did, the Russian forces did not prepare for such a scenario, detect the usage and fire at those positions as was done to them.

This is something Russians are definitely capable of doing and have done it in the past.

So while cell phone usage could have happened and positions were given away, the real mistake is the numbers concentrated next to an ammo depot. If this were not the case, the casualties could have been just a handful.
There was a Russian missile strike on a ice hockey arena, where a lot of Ukrainians were sleeping (with MLRS artillery being unloaded nearby). The Russians may have found the location the same way as Ukrainians.
The most likely way in my view is that a civilian sees soldiers getting into their base (unavoidable in an urban area) and makes a call. One can't figure out if a civilian is pro Russia or Ukraine.

Heard it was a warehouse next to the rink. The warehouse had HIMARS stored. And, so, by extension, they are expecting some American nationals (contractors) to have been KIA.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 05 Jan 2023 22:59

jay wrote: Rao ji, do you mean American soldiers using cell phones during combat ops in Iraq, Afg or during overseas base deployments like in Japan, Korea, Germany? I was under the impression that there are no personal cell phones issues/permitted or even possible for US troops in Iraq, and Afghanistan.

On a serious note, I do not think this is the first incidence of Russians getting knocked because of cell usage. I **think** that was the reason why at least two Russian Generals were killed - early in the war.

Israelis also faced the same fate in the Lebanese war.

And, sachin says that there is a similar, but peaceful, existence along the Indo-Pak-Sino border.

Deans wrote:My understanding is that calls are made from rear area bases - whose location is known and not from Forward operating bases (FOB).

While that is generally true, one needs to understand a couple of things:

1) Cell phones need towers, the two need to be able to talk with other, and the enemy needs huge capabilities to soak up all kinds of energy (EW) and then even larger capability to sort through what was collected and extract what they need. Else nothing happens.

2) US vs. the rest:

The rest operate very close to their borders. So, the chances of a cell phone finding a tower are rather good. And, if the enemy has good capabilities to detect, then .......

In the case of the US:

USAF, they are either hitched to a base or in the air, so no threat of use of a cell

USN, is pretty much the same, on a ship, air, etc.

Marines, are restricted to a base or get in and out of situations. So, here cell are of not much use

Special Ops. Not happening. They will skin you alive if they find you breaking any rule

That leaves the US Army. These guys are on base. Or occupying huge chunks of land. And, therefore the cell-tower probability increase. IF these guys do not maintain discipline they will face similar issues that the Russians faced.

However, as stated, their opponents are not technically sophisticated and therefore these kids could get away - possible. I doubt Americans are using cells in Ukraine - Russia is more than capable. Russia has a great EW capability - highly respected by the US DoD.

For the footprint the US armed forces have, some 400 bases world wide, their culture, etc, the risk of carrying a cell phone is relatively very low. It does exist, however.

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 05 Jan 2023 23:24

Polite question, in the case of Balakot, how did Indian Intelligence work out how many phone were active in the said building? Anybody know?

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 05 Jan 2023 23:27

Deans ji,
Yes, saw the news of Russian strike after my post. It seems Blinken reached out to Lavrov.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 05 Jan 2023 23:37

One may need not intercept actual conversations. Just detecting high density of cell phone activity in a short period where such activity did not happen before + human intel to corroborate is good enough to draw conclusions launch a strike. If it turns out to be just civilians having a gathering - well, Ukraine is way past caring for such niceties since years now, and its a hot war zone anyway.

Lisa ji, anybody who knows won't be telling

I believe such capabilities need special surveillance satellites and/or silent trojans placed into the enemy network. Plus human intel to confirm. WRT India, Pakis may not have the first two, but Chinese and others may have all three.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 06 Jan 2023 00:21

Cyrano wrote:One may need not intercept actual conversations. Just detecting high density of cell phone activity in a short period where such activity did not happen before + human intel to corroborate is good enough to draw conclusions launch a strike. If it turns out to be just civilians having a gathering - well, Ukraine is way past caring for such niceties since years now, and its a hot war zone anyway.

Lisa ji, anybody who knows won't be telling I believe such capabilities need special surveillance satellites and/or silent trojans placed into the enemy network. Plus human intel to confirm. WRT India, Pakis may not have the first two, but Chinese and others may have all three.

pretty sure india has all 3..

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 06 Jan 2023 03:32

All of you can now understand how much damage Huawei Cell phone infrastructure can cause.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 06 Jan 2023 04:15

Cyrano wrote:One may need not intercept actual conversations. ...........

Par for the course. Which is why "someone" leaked the message Liz Truss sent to Blinken. And, why the UK's DefMin flew to DC - he could not trust his own line.

Furthermore, when companies like Tata buy up Land Rover, there are covert dynamic systems in place to ensure that the buyers do not walk away with IP they promised will not be taken out of the country. Happens all the time in sensitive areas like O&G and Def (BAE does not share between her British and US companies).

Finally, to soak up all the energy within Ukraine NATO and various individual nations are flying all sorts of EW aircraft 24x7. They have the capacity and have been at it for decades. Also, killing a Russian General and troops has a lot more psy damage.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 06 Jan 2023 07:32

Aditya_V wrote:The Ukranian's are dealing with Insane diversity in the weapons being supplied to them, imagine the various types of spare parts, training manuals etc to be used.

If you noted, future promised weapons are always delayed by months, even years. Not only because of few stocks but because of very long training and proficiency timelines needed which Ukr cannot meet. May not exist by then.

So with each new system promised to Ukr, the Pentagon goes on a hunt to attract retired US/NATO personnel by offering them exorbitant amounts to come and operate them in Ukraine's battlefields now as "consultans". Training may happen in parallel, no one cares anymore because the supplied systems may not survive by the time training completes in some NATO backyard.

That's the situation the west is in right now. But there are only so many ex soldier experts to be had per system, US or other, in the wild. That's one more reason for the plethora of systems being supplied to Ukraine now. It's a function of stocks + avlty of experts to operate on suicidal contracts.

Russia deserves some staggering respect for what it has taken on and continues to fight. It's not Ukraine.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 07 Jan 2023 17:38

On French supplied AMX- tanks which are more like ICVs with a gun. They were being phased out, now being sent to Ukr. IMO it's a sign of Macron folding quickly to US pressure. In case Scholz caves in and provides Leopards, he'll be expected to match with Leclercs. Better give some obsolete stuff now, say I've done my job and get woke points...

Please use your browser translate:

https://www.ladepeche.fr/2023/01/06/gue ... 905876.php

shaun · Post by **shaun** » 07 Jan 2023 18:05

Some noises in SM about a new decree by Ukr govt on conscription, that even ukr students studying abroad were being instructed to report their embassies. How true ?

mody · Post by **mody** » 07 Jan 2023 18:12

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/50 ... d01eb7118f

The Germans are providing 40 Marder armoured vehicles, the French are giving AMX-10RC wheeled light tanks and the Americans are offering Bradley's, with about 500 TOW missiles, besides 100 M113 and 55 MRAP armored vehicles, 18 155mm self-propelled howitzers, as well as artillery ammunition, mortar rounds, air defense missiles, and various small arms. The addition of SPH and the armoured personnel carriers will offer Ukraine additional capability to launch attacks. This is a calibrated expansion of assistance by the west.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 07 Jan 2023 19:02

Implies that the west still thinks they can win this war of attrition. Russia needs to decide if they want to continue to play in this model or change the game.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 07 Jan 2023 20:54

Russia preparing to mobilise extra 500,000 conscripts, claims Ukraine
Kyiv’s deputy military intelligence chief says force will form part of new offensives over spring and summer

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... ms-ukraine

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 07 Jan 2023 23:00

Sea Sparrow RIM-7 Surface-To-Air Missiles Are Headed To Ukraine

Ukraine is to receive an undisclosed number of radar-guided RIM-7 Sea Sparrow surface-to-air missiles, or SAMs, which will be integrated onto the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ existing Soviet-era Buk air defense systems. The missiles are included as part of the latest U.S. aid package for Kyiv officially announced today, which significantly also includes M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.

................

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 07 Jan 2023 23:18

shaun wrote:Some noises in SM about a new decree by Ukr govt on conscription, that even ukr students studying abroad were being instructed to report their embassies. How true ?

I won't be surprised if UKR does this. UKR is throwing everything to oppose Russia and they are anticipating a new assault in Summer and want to be prepared. Wish RU does the same instead of pretending this is a special operation if it wants to win this conflict.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 08 Jan 2023 00:12

SM post that Ukrainian underage teens are being given gun and sent to frontline, civilised world is OK with this! https://twitter.com/UniqueMongolia/stat ... I7-YjX4OXg

Aldonkar · Post by **Aldonkar** » 08 Jan 2023 02:18

IndraD wrote:SM post that Ukrainian underage teens are being given gun and sent to frontline, civilised world is OK with this! https://twitter.com/UniqueMongolia/stat ... I7-YjX4OXg

I was reading a BBC obituary of Pope Benedict ii , where they mentioned that he was conscripted into the German Army at 16 as they were scraping the bottom of the barrel for troops. Looks like Ukraine has got to the same point. Fortunately, Benedict never had to fire a shot as the war ended soon after.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 08 Jan 2023 02:38

IndraD wrote:SM post that Ukrainian underage teens are being given gun and sent to frontline, civilised world is OK with this! https://twitter.com/UniqueMongolia/stat ... I7-YjX4OXg

I ran the text in the "SM" from google translate that says the following.

(surname, first name, patronymic, address
who also lived in Ternopil str. Maketsa Epidonica 3
(address of place of registration or physical place of residence (residence
NOTICE
According to the tenth part of Article 1 of the Law of Ukraine "On Military Duty and Soldiers
service and the first part of Article 22 of the Law of
Ukraine "On Mobilization Training and Mobilization" in
accordance with the Decree of the President of Ukraine No.
65/2022, dated February 24,
2022. (city) territorial center of procurement and
social support
We suggest that you
arrive at Kai Stod at the address: city of
Ternopil, str. Troleybusna, 5, Ternopil United City Territorial Center of Staffing
and Social Support
(address of the district (city) territorial center of staffing and social
Carry a passport, a military ID (temporary ID) or proof of enrollment
at the conscription station (for conscripts), a service record card
and a mobilization order (if available).
THEY
CHIEF OF THE T

The date on the text says Feb 24 2022, which is the day of Russian invasion. This is in accordance with the Ukrainian mobilization decree 24.02.2022 № 64/2022 calling up conscripts and reservists; all male Ukrainian citizens aged 18 to 60 were prohibited from travelling abroad, unless they could provide documents that they fulfilled specified conditions for exemption.

I am not surprised that a 16 year old is in the war, but looking at the decree which specifically says 18-60 years as the age make me think this is not a common occurrence. On the other hand, there are plenty of non SM reports where 16 year olds are used on non combat roles.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 08 Jan 2023 02:40

Aldonkar wrote:
IndraD wrote:SM post that Ukrainian underage teens are being given gun and sent to frontline, civilised world is OK with this! https://twitter.com/UniqueMongolia/stat ... I7-YjX4OXg
I was reading a BBC obituary of Pope Bernard ii , where they mentioned that he was conscripted into the German Army at 16 as they were scraping the bottom of the barrel for troops. Looks like Ukraine has got to the same point. Fortunately, Bernard never had to fire a shot as the war ended soon after.

This post is from Feb 22, about an year ago and the video also shows everything is green which puts it no latter than Aug-22. Seems UKR has been in this "losing" position for about 5-6 months at least.

Guddu · Post by **Guddu** » 08 Jan 2023 06:53

Great discussion by GD Bakshi on his book on Ukr: lessons learned
https://youtu.be/AXvDeV4xTTg

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 08 Jan 2023 19:38

Very interesting and educative discussion please do listen

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 08 Jan 2023 20:52

Russians are claiming 600 Ukrainian soldiers dead in Kramtorsk, Ukraine and the West deny.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 08 Jan 2023 21:20

I listed to general bakhshi talk twice. I would highly recommend it, instead of wasting hours on western/Russian propaganda, this will give better insight. I guess the book will be quite useful.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 08 Jan 2023 23:25

^^^^^

Andrei Martyanov? If we were to stick with Russia, AM has been saying the same thing, with more details, for months - actually years (if one were to take his books into account).

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 09 Jan 2023 00:37

it is 1 hour 30 min long, any chance of any gaaru posting the gist please?