Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 13 Feb 2023 02:23

surprising that Russia has allowed BBC to operate from Moscow when RT was cancelled point blank one fine morning an yr ago!

The BBC’s Steve Rosenberg: ‘The increasing aggression in Russia worries me – it could get bumpy’ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... eurovision

Have the sanctions had any tangible effect on day-to-day life?
If you go to a supermarket in Moscow, the shelves are pretty full. The selection perhaps isn’t as large as it was a year ago, and a lot of western products that used to be there have disappeared, like Coca-Cola, replaced by new local brands. Imported goods are becoming much more expensive. But for the majority of Russians across the country, they don’t see a huge effect from sanctions. Now that may change this year. I think the economy is going to come under increasing pressure.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 13 Feb 2023 02:59

Olympics head rejects Zelenskiy call to ban Russian athletes from Paris Games, to which Z has asked for national game of Ukr of tying Romans to pole be included as game in Olympics

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 13 Feb 2023 19:40

Interview of Seymour Hersh (audio file by a local radio station). His first interview after the article! The guy is something else! Truly one of the real ones. The real interview starts just after minute 7.

http://exiledonline.com/wnradio/rwn_epi ... 123_v3.mp3

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 13 Feb 2023 20:25

Europe's spend on energy crisis nears 800 billion euros
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 023-02-13/

European countries' bill to shield households and companies from soaring energy costs has climbed to nearly 800 billion euros, researchers said on Monday, urging countries to be more targeted in their spending to tackle the energy crisis.

European Union countries have now earmarked or allocated 681 billion euros in energy crisis speding, while Britain allocated 103 billion euros and Norway 8.1 billon euros since September 2021, according to the analysis by think-tank Bruegel.

Amazing what colonies the euros have become. Next time if they ever ever ask India to cut down on subsidies, they should be asked to F.Off

Avid · Post by **Avid** » 13 Feb 2023 21:10

Cyrano wrote:Retired French historienne Annie Lacroix-Riz specialising in contemporary history corroborates everything we say here about Ukraine war. Offers insights on US-DE perfidy wrt Russia and their manipulation of Ukraine from WW1 era to present day, and why Russia will never let go of it.

https://youtu.be/slfmANDzWO4

All in French. But it's good to know that there are other seasoned experts who share the same views as most of us here and we are not in some echo chamber of our own making.

Surprising that Youtube is not offering close captions in English. They do that for all kinds of random videos, but not this one.
(TBH, getting to become more conspiracy theory minded as I see google not showing results for certain searches; and now this....)

Avid · Post by **Avid** » 13 Feb 2023 21:47

dnivas wrote:Europe's spend on energy crisis nears 800 billion euros
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 023-02-13/

European countries' bill to shield households and companies from soaring energy costs has climbed to nearly 800 billion euros, researchers said on Monday, urging countries to be more targeted in their spending to tackle the energy crisis.

European Union countries have now earmarked or allocated 681 billion euros in energy crisis speding, while Britain allocated 103 billion euros and Norway 8.1 billon euros since September 2021, according to the analysis by think-tank Bruegel.
Amazing what colonies the euros have become. Next time if they ever ever ask India to cut down on subsidies, they should be asked to F.Off

What really provides a better understanding of the complete impact --
1) 800B Euros is only the govt portion and to calculate total impact -- need to account for the amount the govt passed on to the consumers. That would still only be the direct impact; and not account for indirect impact in terms of increased prices of other goods/services.

2) To make it more meaningful -- reference point of spend as a % of GDP. There's a nice chart here:
https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/nationa ... rgy-prices

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 14 Feb 2023 00:54

Cyrano wrote:The way forward can only be complete destruction of Ukraine's military, total control of Ukranian territory and put Russian forces on the Polish border. I think that's what Russia will do.

No argument with any of your other points, but at this point how can you seriously believe this is even possible?

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 14 Feb 2023 01:11

drnayar wrote:
Cyrano wrote: a democratic China could very well be more nationalistic and prone to adventures than a communist hobbled one. Careful what we wish for.

Also worth pointing out that Taiwan supports all Chinese imperial claims on India and the Pacific region. A “democratic”, reunified China would be a far greater threat than this incompetent CPP-run entity we face today.

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 14 Feb 2023 01:16

JE Menon wrote:Interview of Seymour Hersh (audio file by a local radio station). His first interview after the article! The guy is something else! Truly one of the real ones. The real interview starts just after minute 7.

http://exiledonline.com/wnradio/rwn_epi ... 123_v3.mp3

indeed he is the original investigative reporter when news was news !!.. we now live in a world of narratives and counter narratives

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 14 Feb 2023 16:00

Y. Kanan wrote:
Cyrano wrote:The way forward can only be complete destruction of Ukraine's military, total control of Ukranian territory and put Russian forces on the Polish border. I think that's what Russia will do.
No argument with any of your other points, but at this point how can you seriously believe this is even possible?

Why is this not possible? What is your assessment behind "at this point"?

Avid · Post by **Avid** » 14 Feb 2023 20:16

Cyrano wrote:
Y. Kanan wrote:
No argument with any of your other points, but at this point how can you seriously believe this is even possible?
Why is this not possible? What is your assessment behind "at this point"?

IMHO -- the most logical outcome is that the Russians will go up to the east bank of Dnieper wherever possible, stop and hold a defensible position.

Why? This war will end eventually at the negotiating table. Outcome of negotiations that Russia will want Crimea plus at the minimum are two of the Oblasts -- Luhansk, Donetsk. Ideally, it will also want two more Oblasts -- Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

To get either of that Russia needs to be holding more territory than it wants; and will want to hold that in a defensible position to avoid the grinding high casualty war exemplified during Korean War while negotiations were ongoing.

Why?
In return for giving up the excess territory beyond the Oblasts, it can demand the concessions on other fronts -- neutrality, demilitarization, etc.

Why not go further than Dnieper?
1) Not as defensible
2) Russia needs the silent diplomatic support of the Global South (but economically more than sufficient).

Running over Ukraine will lose that support, and allow creation of a narrative that enables escalation that is a no-win.

FYI here is the reference map:

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 14 Feb 2023 21:56

It is also possible that either russian offence or ukrainian defence will some day will fold up suddenly.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 15 Feb 2023 08:47

Hope you're placing your bets wisely Yash

When Ukrainien forces crumble why would the Russians stop at Dneipr?

Why would the Russians negotiate with untrustworthy EU after what happened to Minsk accords ? Or with US after its terrorist attack on NS and fellow NATO country?

Why do you think Russia will not take control of the rest of Ukraine? They care more about Ukraine than conniving Poland or sneaky Romania who only want to nibble territory.

What's the noblesse in leaving a rump state Ukraine that's only going to prostitute itself one more time for a snort of NATO or EU membership and try and kick Russia once again in the nuts?

Think about it...

Arima · Post by **Arima** » 15 Feb 2023 09:57

the day Russia parliament passed resolution to annex oblast into Russian fold, negotiation of these land is not on table anymore. now fight is more to destroy will of any ukraine to raise against Russ politically and Militarily and ensure no militancy/insurgency can be started to keep another Chechnya from happening.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 15 Feb 2023 18:51

Cyrano wrote:Hope you're placing your bets wisely Yash

When Ukrainien forces crumble why would the Russians stop at Dneipr?

Why would the Russians negotiate with untrustworthy EU after what happened to Minsk accords ? Or with US after its terrorist attack on NS and fellow NATO country?

Why do you think Russia will not take control of the rest of Ukraine? They care more about Ukraine than conniving Poland or sneaky Romania who only want to nibble territory.

What's the noblesse in leaving a rump state Ukraine that's only going to prostitute itself one more time for a snort of NATO or EU membership and try and kick Russia once again in the nuts?

Think about it...

There is often a gradual decline and then sudden fall. So pakistan is in gradual decline but one day it could fall apart all of a sudden. In that sense in this war there will be a gradual decline of one side and then one day a sudden stop.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 15 Feb 2023 19:34

^^^
Following up on the above. I was curious about this news and I found some smoke.

In a recent nato meeting this was discussed.

NATO defense ministers were also debating how to adapt the 2% spending target, and whether it was sufficient given the war raging in Ukraine.

Heads of government were expected to make that decision at a NATO summit in Lithuania in July.

Germany's Boris Pistorius earlier said NATO countries should consider going above the defense spending threshold of 2% of gross domestic product (GDP).

https://www.dw.com/en/nato-plans-to-inc ... a-64704156

Now I dont think US wants EU countries to spend 2%+ GDP on defence because it serves some grave purpose but if EU does so then a good part of that will go into american MIC. EU's spending is direct US's trade gain!

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 15 Feb 2023 23:17

Right! The only EU country that has some good miltech covering Air, Sea, Land and Space is France. Others like UK then Germany have bits and pieces, and the rest have mostly crumbs. Besides tech they lack production capacity which catered for few exports now and then on the sidelines of American mic.
NATO interoperability mantra ensured near wipeout of caprcacity and long term skill development for R&D and mfg. France somehow survived thanks to Gen de Gaulle's fierce anti us independent policies.

EU nations are fundamentally set up for being warring tribes since ever, secular Westphalian treaties aren't enough because every denomination stakes claim of absolute truth. So given their history, "mutually assured incapacity for destruction " of which EU is a manifestation has worked quite well after WW2 until the US revived NATO and took over EU in the last few years. You can see the natural belligerence and itch to fight resurface quite eagerly in the statements of EU leaders statements since the Ukraine war started.

This reveals not just EU's inability to remember history but a longing for domination and influence it lost to the US in the post colonial era, which the rampant elitism of the ruling class won't acknowledge but pursues nevertheless. And it needs military power projection.

If EU countries re-arm themselves, they will go at each other's throats within a decade.

So damned if you do and damned if you don't!

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 16 Feb 2023 01:19

ISIS patch on Ukrop fighters

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 16 Feb 2023 09:26

https://bharatabharati.in/2023/02/12/em ... g-altwegg/
lot of great analysis

French historian Emmanuel Todd predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union. Today he sees the United States in decline. France is laughed at and the British act headlessly. Worst of all are the Germans, who have become targets for the Americans. Russia, on the other hand, is doing better than many Western observers would like to think. – Jürg Altwegg

Weltwoche: Thank you, cher Emmanuel, for agreeing to this interview. You haven’t spoken out in public lately.

Emmanuel Todd: I was in Japan where a book of mine was published. It is a bestseller that does not have an original French edition. Its subject is the war in Ukraine. In France, I didn’t get involved in the debates. I’m giving you the first interview because you write in German. This war is about Germany.

Weltwoche: Before we talk about the Ukraine war, I am interested in your assessment of a piece of news that was recently circulating: The world population has passed the eight billion mark. What does the demographer say about this number?

Todd: It doesn’t scare me. What is worrying is that birth rates are declining in all developed countries. In Germany and Japan they have long been below average: 1.4 and 1.5 children per woman. This is not enough for the renewal of the population. Now the other countries have also fallen back to this level. In the US, a woman had two children, now there are 1.6; in China 1.3.

Weltwoche: At the same time, the world population is growing.

Todd: We have a difficult time with maybe ten billion people ahead of us. But it won’t last long. The demographic depression is really serious. Taiwan and Korea produce most of the semiconductors in the world. In South Korea, women give birth to 0.8 children. In the most productive industrialized countries, working people are collapsing. In China, the factory of the world, the workforce will decline by 35 percent over the next twenty years. This is one of the reasons for inflation.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Feb 2023 03:42

Sudan military finishes review of Russian Red Sea base deal

Older than the UKR war. However, this has become very relevant for the time.

CAIRO (AP) — Sudan’s ruling military concluded a review of an agreement with Russia to build a navy base on the Red Sea in the African country, two Sudanese officials said Saturday.

They said the deal was awaiting the formation of a civilian government and a legislative body to be ratified before it takes effect. The officials said Moscow met Sudan’s most recent demands, including providing more weapons and equipment.

.............

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Feb 2023 13:11

South Africa ‘plays China and Russia’ card against US with joint naval exercise

* The exercises have been condemned by Washington, but are seen as giving a PR boost to Moscow amid its ongoing war against Ukraine
* Some defence analysts believe the drills in a strategically important sea route off the Cape may become a regular event

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 17 Feb 2023 14:24

Unkil's decades old grip on ME is loosening. Recent developments:
- Saudi and OPEC+ refusing US dictats
- Egypt President Sisi builds closer ties with India
- Adani given opening to invest in Egypt port business
- Adani gets contract for Haifa port from Israel
- France-UAE-India trilateral
- Sudan to build a base with Russia on the Red Sea
And South Africa doing Naval exercises with Russia and China - Cape of Good Hope the only other eastward access to Indian Ocean can't be taken for granted.
Interesting times...

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 17 Feb 2023 15:47

vijayk wrote:https://bharatabharati.in/2023/02/12/em ... g-altwegg/
lot of great analysis
.

[/quote]

thanks for posting this !

some other relevant reflections in that article :

Germany’s tragedy is that it still believed it was protected by the United States.

The expansion of NATO in Eastern Europe was not primarily directed against Russia, but against Germany.

To maintain its prosperity, the United States depends on the tribute of other countries. { interesting , given the AI deal

}

The Germans know only too well that Nord Stream was destroyed by the Americans. Through a joint military action by the Americans, British and Poles. Against Germany. But they can’t tell. In fact, the Germans were attacked by the Americans.

If Russia survives, keeps the Donbass and Crimea, if its economy continues to function and it can rebuild its trade relations with China and India, then America has lost the war. And as a result, it will lose its allies. That is why America and NATO will continue. And that is why this is a world war that will continue. Its main cause is the crisis of the West.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 17 Feb 2023 23:40

VIDEO: https://twitter.com/thatdayin1992/statu ... 73504?s=20 -->

You're moving closer to Russia, yet you're blaming the Russians for being close to NATO."

AP's Matt Lee confronts John Kirby on NATO's expansion toward Russia.

Roop · Post by **Roop** » 18 Feb 2023 11:01

vijayk wrote:https://bharatabharati.in/2023/02/12/em ... g-altwegg/

lot of great analysis

You are right, lots of great analysis. Well worth everyone's time to read. Thank you for posting it.

The biggest eye-opener to me was what he said about Germany -- that the US-UK-Poland-Ukraine Axis of Crazy (my words) is, in effect, actually waging war on Germany/France/the rest of Europe.

Really something to think about.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 18 Feb 2023 23:57

India's Russian oil imports surge to a record in January

https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes ... redirect=1

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 19 Feb 2023 03:43

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 19 Feb 2023 03:57

Is there any end in sight for this war? Or is this another Afpak in the making?

VKumar · Post by **VKumar** » 19 Feb 2023 05:54

USA will fight Russia till the last Ukranian

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 19 Feb 2023 08:47

WH called it nonsense but Hersh may in the end prove to be right!

https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how ... ord-stream
How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline
The New York Times called it a “mystery,” but the United States executed a covert sea operation that was kept secret—until now

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 19 Feb 2023 09:12

VKumar wrote:USA will fight Russia till the last Ukranian

Whatever runs out first, ammunition or the Ukrainians. Will end the war.

Roop · Post by **Roop** » 19 Feb 2023 09:43

vijayk wrote:... but Hersh may in the end prove to be right!

To me, there is no "may be" about it. Hersh is absolutely right here.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 19 Feb 2023 09:47

What Seymour Hersh wrote is connecting the dots, many of them were visible, and while what actually happened to NS was glaringly obvious to any non casual observer, Hersh has spoken to people in the know to reveal how it happened. He doesn't really go into the why, that's not a journalist job.

On the what and the how, the fact that the involved Govt and media have adopted an omerta approach only indicates how bloody right and accurate Hersh has been.

I think we will keep discovering an endless number of sins, commissions and omissions around the Ukraine saga for years to come.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 19 Feb 2023 14:13

The gravest sin around Ukraine is the overthrow of a democratic government 6 months before the elections in 2014.

If you know that your cause is just and has support from the plurality of the population. Then let the market place of ideas decide.

But the Ukrainian Nazis being supported by the US, made the electoral process meaningless.

They impeached Donald Trump over Ukraine. Because someone thought he said something. When he had infact not said so. Both Ukrainian and US presidents said that it was not said. Yet Trump got impeached over it.

There is not going to be reckoning in US unless it suffered a clear and undeniable defeat in Ukraine.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 19 Feb 2023 22:53

Following conversation is with Deputy Chairman of Russian Assembly Piotr Olegovich Tolstoy (may be related to Leo Tolstoy). It is in French, but with English subtitles. Pretty long video, and in terms of new information, nothing new..

The only thing I gathered was that this conflict is nowhere near any end. It either extends into Europe or it becomes Syria, where uncle and russ appears to have split the country.

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 20 Feb 2023 00:31

Unfortunate are the regular aam admi of europe who are under heavy doses of narratives day in and out with inept leaders who can hardly admit they have been in complicit with destruction and deindustrialisation of their economies. Europe is fu@ked either way., look at the body language of Scholtz in China

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 20 Feb 2023 00:34

Pratyush wrote:
VKumar wrote:USA will fight Russia till the last Ukranian
Whatever runs out first, ammunition or the Ukrainians. Will end the war.

the dying throes of an empire in decline

Haresh · Post by **Haresh** » 20 Feb 2023 00:37

chanakyaa wrote:Following conversation is with Deputy Chairman of Russian Assembly Piotr Olegovich Tolstoy (may be related to Leo Tolstoy).

He is a great-great-grandson

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyotr_Olegovich_Tolstoy

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 20 Feb 2023 02:57

Q&A:

Medvedev:

https://twitter.com/Trollstoy88/status/ ... 1164158977

"It's hilarious that Europe is run by such ignorant people," Medvedev commented on the German FM, who earlier said the world would be happy with Moscow's "360-degree turn"

"There is no doubt, connoisseur of geometry, that it will be so. We are holding our ground," Medvedev said.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 20 Feb 2023 05:36

Saw Tolstoy's interview few days ago, he gave them a gang spank all by himself;)