Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Dilbu
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Don’t blame the Chinese
AN exam question for CSS aspirants: what’s higher than the Himalayas, deeper than the seas, stronger than steel, and sweeter than honey? Well, dear candidate, any hesitation suggests your patriotism level needs checking in Rawalpindi or Aabpara.

Every flag-waving Pakistani knows Pak-China friendship is the only answer. Next, what makes CPEC a game changer? Obvious! New industries will sprout, existing ones will hum away, exports will shoot through the roof, Gwadar will become the next Dubai, all debts will be paid off, jobs will be galore, and the sun shall shine forever.

These dreams lie punctured as Pakistan gallops towards debt default. CPEC started in 2013, with $62 billion spent to date. But now debt-ridden Pakistan is casting around for loans to pay older loans. Whoever will give — and on whichever terms — is to be heartily embraced. The ‘unbreakable bonds’ of Pak-China friendship are under stress.
According to IMF data, China holds roughly $30bn of Pakistan’s $126bn total external foreign debt. This is thrice its IMF debt ($7.8bn) and exceeds its borrowings from the World Bank and Asian Development Bank combined. So why is mighty China awaiting the green signal from American-led IMF before releasing some relief? Shouldn’t it at least reschedule Pakistan’s debt? Or, better, wipe it off?
Let’s face it: these are naïve hopes. Chinese capitalism — like any other capitalism — is about profit, not philanthropy. In Marketing-101, a budding businessman learns how to sell water to a drowning man. Banking-101 tells you how to identify desperate debtors. Law-101 is about dealing with defaulters.

Chinese companies, state or private, are like other companies. Being under their government’s instructions to view Pakistan as a strategic ally, they understand Gwadar gives entry to the warm waters of the Persian Gulf — those which allegedly attracted USSR into invading Afghanistan. But they tread cautiously; Pakistan is not the world’s best place to park your capital.
Bombs were hi-tech until the 1960s, but not thereafter. Reactors, however, are complicated beasts. The two Hualong HPR-1000 plants ($7bn apiece) known as Kanupp-2 and Kanupp-3 have all their core components designed and manufactured in China. Even the fuel comes from China. PAEC’s role is merely supportive. Under Chinese supervision, it undertook the civil works, installation and operation of the plants.

Compare with Chinese involvement in Singapore which, like Pakistan, is a former British colony. This island is 42 times smaller population-wise and 1,093 times smaller area-wise. But last year, FDI in Singapore was $92bn compared to $2bn for Pakistan. Its economy attracts American and Chinese giant companies for semiconductor design and manufacture, communications, robotics, financial technologies, business and professional services, etc.

These staggeringly large differences cry out for an explanation.
CPEC was built around a fatally flawed premise. It presumed that infrastructure — roads, bridges and electricity — alone will create growth and jobs. This is like assuming abundant water, soil, and fertiliser will yield a rich harvest. But the crucial input is seed — human capital. And here’s where things went awry.

Pakistan certainly has people as bright and talented as anywhere. But because of an education system gone berserk, it offers only low-grade human capital to industry. Because indoctrination was promoted over knowledge and skills, we are stuck with an ocean of unemployable youth.

Sending 30,000 Pakistani students to China for higher studies has failed to generate human capital. From former students who have returned with a degree in hand, I hear shocking stories. Most Pakistani students in China opt to game the system and cut corners, not learn or achieve.

In engineering and hard sciences, few are properly equipped for any but the shoddiest of Chinese universities. Of course, there are always honourable exceptions.

As talk turns towards debt traps and comparisons with Sri Lanka, anxiety and anger is growing. But calmness is needed lest an earlier folly be repeated. Delusions that Pakistan’s staunchest friend was America — and the supplier of its every need — ultimately shattered the relationship with its “most allied ally” of yesteryear. That need not — should not — have happened.

China is probably guilty of short-selling us — most IPP deals are considered a scam. So are tax exemptions to Chinese companies. Duty-free imports from China have driven many local manufacturers to bankruptcy. But it was our trumpet blowers who sold to us the nonsense of CPEC as a Marshall Plan for Pakistan. Europe was ruined by war, but Pakistan fell on its knees because of its own doing.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by vimal »

I order 100 lashes to the author.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by ritesh »

OlaUber!! Ghass khane ke din aagaye hai!!! Lawhore via quwait... Kuch atisbazzji toh hone hi chahiye...

Any learned gurus could, has the porki army put in their collective towels yet?? When was the last time they tested their cheeni maal doing equal equal with evil hindoos?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by drnayar »

ritesh wrote:OlaUber!! Ghass khane ke din aagaye hai!!! Lawhore via quwait... Kuch atisbazzji toh hone hi chahiye...

Any learned gurus could, has the porki army put in their collective towels yet?? When was the last time they tested their cheeni maal doing equal equal with evil hindoos?
not sure how much is left , they are outdoing the Russians after the fall of Soviet Union in selling stuff on the black arms market, everything goes ,



also just in case someone is wondering.,

https://eurasiantimes.com/us-punctures- ... its-nukes/
hnair
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by hnair »

A-o-A! Looks like Paxtan Defense Minister* Khawaja Aziz has declared the innings. Take that IMF, you pushed them too hard and now that they declared default themselves, what will you do? Give credit at higher rates which they will not be pay back?

Innings defeat looming ahead for IMF

___________
* a post which can be replaced with a rubber stamping kiosk
Deans
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Deans »

chetak wrote:WA
Air India’s plane deals - $150 billion.

Pakistan’s GDP - $346.28 billion.

Is there anything more to add, to make these grass eaters understand the reality of their plight a little better
Something more to add: Air India + Indigo's order = Pakistan GDP.
Maharashtra's GDP is greater than Pak.
Last edited by Deans on 19 Feb 2023 08:28, edited 1 time in total.
Deans
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Deans »

vimal wrote:I order 100 lashes to the author.
China has not given author his monthly envelope.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Pakistan has 'already defaulted': Asif
ISLAMABAD: As fears that Pakistan faced imminent default prompts policymakers to stave off the dreaded scenario, Defence Minister Khawaja Asif on Saturday claimed that the country has all but defaulted, saying everyone -- including the establishment, bureaucracy, and politicians -- was responsible for it.

The remarks come as the country faces a crippling economic crisis, with decades-high inflation and critically low foreign exchange reserves depleted by continued debt repayment obligations.
"You must have heard that Pakistan is going bankrupt or that a default or meltdown is taking place. It (default) has already taken place. We are living in a bankrupt country," he said while addressing a ceremony in Sialkot.

The defence minister said that standing on one's own feet was crucial for Pakistan to stabilise itself. "The solution to our problems lies within the country. The IMF does not have the solution to Pakistan's problems."

He said that everyone—including the establishment, bureaucracy and politicians— was to blame for the current economic mess as the law and constitution are not followed in Pakistan.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Pakistan’s rice exports shrink 16pc to $1.08bn
ISLAMABAD: Amid a global economic slowdown, Pakistan’s exports of rice posted a negative growth of 15.82 per cent in the first seven months of the current fiscal year mainly due to the flood devastation of paddy fields in Sindh.

In value, the total rice exports dipped to $1.08 billion in July-January this year from $1.28bn in the corresponding months of last year. The stagnation in export proceeds, especially of basmati rice, is mainly because of several reasons particularly the under-invoicing of rice to Afghanistan and Iran under the barter trade system.

Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (Reap) Chairman Chela Ram Kewlani told Dawn that the data compiled by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) did not show the basmati rice exports to Iran and Afghanistan. However, he said the crop of long-grain white rice (non-basmati rice) has witnessed a 40pc reduction in Sindh.
There are eight districts in the world whose basmati rice is famous out of which six districts are in Pakistan and two in India. However, there are issues now cropping up, especially with rice seeds in the country.

The unabated housing schemes on GT Road in Punjab province are eating up this rare earth in six districts that are suitable for the cultivation of the world’s best basmati rice. However, the government did not take any action in this regard.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Neela »

@TrueIndology
https://twitter.com/TrueIndology/status ... 2477848576
Karachi was the richest city of undivided India.

As it was then a Hindu majority city inhabited by industrious Sindhis & Khatris who created market & jobs throughout province.

In 1947, they kiIIed & kicked out these job creating Hindus. Today, Pakistan has gone bankrupt.
Karma

The fact that we could not help the millions affected at the time of their need really really hurts . I can only imagine armed barbaric islamic animals descending upon houses, looting and doing unspeakable crimes on hapless folk including kids.

I hope the day is not far off where they go after each other. Let them slaughter, loot and kill themselves. Let there be a replay of the events past ditto except that it is kin on kin . And All for a morsel of food.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

If we partition sub stories it is more from rural Pakjab, not much from urban Hindu Lahoris and people from Karachi, many of them become successful quickly in Mumbai, Chennai, Delhi and other Indian cities. I wonder if the INC Bif ecosystem gave them sort of leg up in businesses in India in order to buy thier silence. Few of my Sindhi friends mentioned thier Grandparents were grateful to Muslim neighbors to move thier families and movable wealth to India without harm. This looks like many were given Government jobs, land and compensation to keep quiet. If they didn't keep quiet the educated Hindu middle class would have been able to wake up much earlier. So.e sort of carrot and stick,shut up and you lead a life in India.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by NRao »

Businesses that were mobile (sell assets at the speed of partition) moved - they could because they could take their wealth with them.

Wealthy families with fixed assets: factories, converted to Islam. The choice was between retain wealth and convert or retain religion and loss of wealth. So, the very rich Hindus converted.

Percent of Hindus in Pakistan in 1947-48: 24%
Percent of Hindus in Pakistan in 2020ish: 2%

Conversion for you.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vayutuvan »

Dilbu wrote:
He said that everyone—including the establishment, bureaucracy and politicians— was to blame for the current economic mess as the law and constitution are not followed in Pakistan.
This fellow blamed everybody but the RAPE army. :rotfl:
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Deans »

https://restofworld.org/2022/inside-sto ... ift-crash/

Pakistan (almost) had a startup that became a Unicorn. Actually 27.5% of a Unicorn, before it crashed.
Anujan
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Anujan »

https://www.brecorder.com/news/40227287
There is no pause in food inflation – which stood at 45 percent in rural and 39 percent in urban areas during January 2023. The 12-month moving average of national food inflation is at 27 percent last month, up from 12 percent just eight months ago. The quantum jump in food prices is dangerous, and happening at a time when unemployment is also growing.

According to this writer’s sources, the payroll number of a major bank – which handles one-third of the country’s formal sector payrolls - salary disbursement has declined by 140,000 employees from a total of around 3 million employees for which the bank used to handle salary disbursement back in 2022. This indicates 4.7 percent of formal sector personnel have possibly lost employment over the last year. Extrapolating the numbers, around 500,000 people have lost their job in 2022 in the formal sector.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Vayutuvan wrote:
Dilbu wrote:
This fellow blamed everybody but the RAPE army. :rotfl:
Isn't 'establishment' an euphemism for the army? The current vernacular is 'neutrals'
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

Dismal future for the auto sector
After facing a 40 per cent drop in sales of cars, SUVs, pickups and jeeps in 7MFY23 to 94,296 units, auto sector stakeholders believe that the next five to six months appear more challenging than the previous seven months.

The industry continues to face parts shortages due to the State Bank’s (SBP) restrictions on opening new letters of credit (LCs), resulting in plant closures and long delivery times for vehicles. However, industry players maintained their past practice of jacking up prices amid plant shutdowns, uncertain economic conditions and shrinking sales. Some assemblers even gave multiple price shocks in less than a month to offset overhead expenditures.
The eroding rupee value against the dollar has made parts import costlier, whose impact is being passed on to the consumers, but no one cares about giving any price relief to the buyers in view of the rupee’s recovery against the dollar. One dollar was equal to Rs 264.38 on February 16 as compared to Rs 276.58 on February 3 in the interbank market.

However, plants shut down by auto assemblers had resulted in the loss of 250,000-300,000 direct and indirect jobs in the auto vending industry at a time of soaring food inflation and utility bills. Pak Suzuki kept its plant closed for 40 days in the last six to seven months.
Chairman Association of Pakistan Motorcycle Assemblers (APMA), Mohammad Sabir Sheikh, said people earning Rs25,000-35,000 were the main buyers of Chinese bikes on a monthly instalment basis. After the meteoric price hike of bikes as well as food items, they do not have surplus money to pay heavy instalments.

Bike sales fell by 17pc to 724,909 units from 874,161 in 7MFY22.

Mr Sheikh said costly Honda bike sales could be considered robust given its 12-month instalment plan, while Suzuki is also going well. Yamaha sales are going flat.

Mr Sheikh said people, who own cars, prefer three to four years old heavy bikes instead of new bikes as they think that it is better to move in a two-wheeler rather than on cars to save petrol and time. However, even people using bikes have restricted their movement as per their needs due to high petrol rates, which is evident from declining petrol sales, he said. “I think Chinese assembled bike sales may remain in trouble as the prices have gone beyond the limits for many low and middle-class consumers,” Mr Sheikh said, adding that time is not far when purchasing used bikes will also become a daunting task as its price would further soar due to rising new bike prices.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

A great social and political upheaval is coming?
There is no pause in food inflation – which stood at 45 percent in rural and 39 percent in urban areas during January 2023. The 12-month moving average of national food inflation is at 27 percent last month, up from 12 percent just eight months ago. The quantum jump in food prices is dangerous, and happening at a time when unemployment is also growing.

According to this writer’s sources, the payroll number of a major bank – which handles one-third of the country’s formal sector payrolls - salary disbursement has declined by 140,000 employees from a total of around 3 million employees for which the bank used to handle salary disbursement back in 2022. This indicates 4.7 percent of formal sector personnel have possibly lost employment over the last year. Extrapolating the numbers, around 500,000 people have lost their job in 2022 in the formal sector.

This does not include those who lost employment in the informal sector or were contractual employees of formal businesses. Usually, the first axe falls on contractual employees. It’s easier to get rid of them as these do not have direct obligations to the employer.
Within the textile sector, as per a major value-added exporter, only one-third of workers are directly employed by any textile firm while two-thirds are employed through third-party contractors. They estimate that the job losses in Karachi textile industry alone could stand at 70,000-100,000 which is 20-25 percent of total work force, including both direct and contractual employees.

The number in Punjab is much bigger – both in terms of market size and those who are unemployed. The number of estimated job loss in Punjab’s textile is around 300,000-400,000 and overall textile sector unemployment is approaching a staggering 500,000 number.

And APTMA (mainly concentrated in low value-added textile) expects another half a million job losses in the coming months due to upward revision in the energy tariffs for the exporting industries in Punjab.

The situation in other sectors is not encouraging either. As per the calculations of auto parts manufacturer association, around 50,000 direct job losses are estimated by the SMEs operating in the segment. There are around 350 automobile parts manufacturers and on average 150 employees lost jobs in each company.
Time is not far when these industries start laying off employees in large numbers. And many SME importers and traders would be out of the business, going forward. This is a scary trend.

That is the stock of the situation in the job market. And there is a significant dent in consumption due to job losses and overall falling real incomes. Petroleum sales are down substantially in this fiscal year so far– 15 percent down in petrol and 23 percent dip in diesel. Moreover, power generation is down by 8 percent. Domestic cement sales are down by 17 percent, as well. Numbers are even worse in the automobile and engineering sector.
Whatever the reasons are, the fact of the matter is that the food inflation trend in the current year is exceptional, at a time of substantial rise in unemployment.

The trend is likely to get worse with a possible increase in interest rates and continued import restrictions. There is nothing more urgent and pressing in this country than to address the growing stagflation trends. However, it seems that the priorities of authorities are focused on stifling the popularity of political opponents. The elephant in the room is not the opposition, but stagflation. Get the priorities straight.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

I agree with TTP's narrative that it is western style democracy that has failed TSP. They need a new Islamic revolution that should begin with the destruction of govt's writ across the country. Apart from NWFP which should be rid of govt forces and established as the head of the khalifate, Karachi and Rawalpindi should also feel the heat in a slow boiling civil war. Finally when TSPA has lost control of more than half of the country, TTP should start culling the RAPEs on the streets. Rakkit mards should have open field days for weeks on end. TTP should then declare a loosely held Islamic emirate ,governed according to Sharia, which will now spread across erstwhile TSP broken into 4 pieces. That should solve the problem for pakis.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Neela »

At the sidelines of the Munich Security conference, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva told Pakis to "take steps to function as a country" :rotfl:
Whither Paki H&D huh? A woman being so abrasive huh? Does Allah permit this.
Wait wait , next time she travels to slamabad, she is getting a burqa over her.
vimal
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by vimal »

Jinnah was so far ahead of his time. Total population transfer is the only answer.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by williams »

Dilbu wrote:I agree with TTP's narrative that it is western style democracy that has failed TSP. They need a new Islamic revolution that should begin with the destruction of govt's writ across the country. Apart from NWFP which should be rid of govt forces and established as the head of the khalifate, Karachi and Rawalpindi should also feel the heat in a slow boiling civil war. Finally when TSPA has lost control of more than half of the country, TTP should start culling the RAPEs on the streets. Rakkit mards should have open field days for weeks on end. TTP should then declare a loosely held Islamic emirate ,governed according to Sharia, which will now spread across erstwhile TSP broken into 4 pieces. That should solve the problem for pakis.
One peculiar change with the Uncle and Aunties of Pakis this time. No one is saying Paki nukes are in danger to fall into the wrong hands and hence need to keep the Pakis stable. This could only mean they have that under control and no one cares if the country rots financially to a point of no return.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

^ they used to say that to scare India into not taking action against Paki terror attacks.

Modi called their bluff in Bagalkote.

Remember his 'Humare kya diwali ke liye rakhe hain' :D
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

This is the article I was waiting for. It took a while to come out this time. It is all west's fault folks.
Economic crisis in Pakistan and the role of West
ISLAMABAD: One thing is common among international financial institutions (IFIs), which is they trap and exploit countries, and blame others for their exploitation.

It is an unwritten rule of business and they are applying it with dedication. It is a known fact that many countries crumbled during the reform period under an IMF programme.

Latin American economies are the most cited example, but we can find new ones like that of Hungary and Greece. The two European countries are the most recent examples of the IMF-led disastrous reform recipes.
Pakistan is one of the victims like many other developing countries. It has been entangled in a debt trap. It has started to pay the price in the form of high inflation, free fall of the rupee, shrinking production and elimination of social welfare spending under the dictation of IFIs.

Instead of accepting their mistakes, the IFIs are trying to shift blame on to China. They want to make China a scapegoat for their mistakes. :mrgreen:
It is an open secret that the US has been pushing Pakistan for a long time to quit CPEC and the BRI. It is part of the US policy to contain China and check its peaceful rise. To achieve the objective, the US is pressurising Pakistan one way or the other. :D

First, Pakistan was put in the grey list of FATF with the objective of squeezing its economic space. Second, the IFIs are playing their role to pile on pressure. Third, the US has allocated hundreds of millions of dollars to run a campaign against China and CPEC.
The war on terror has undermined Pakistan’s standing in the global arena and its security situation. Although Pakistan did not want to become part of the war, the US and the West forced it to become a frontline ally.

Owing to the war, the country suffered huge losses on all fronts such as the economy, security situation, social sector and human life. It had to bear an economic loss of $150 billion {Actually it is $150,000,000 billion} which is beyond the country’s capacity. It is higher than the current external debt of $130 billion.

On the other hand, Pakistan lost 70,000 precious lives. Hundreds of thousands are still suffering from the psychological effects and many people have become handicapped.
IFIs, the US and the West may not change their mindset and practices and they believe they have the right to say whatever they want. So, Pakistan and China should establish mechanisms to counter such campaigns and allegations.

To achieve the objective, the two friendly neighbours must adopt a proactive policy, rather than a reactive policy, which will not help. {Perhaps the author should ask why tarrell than mountain China is not providing relief to TSP on the repayment on chinese loans before blaming the West}
Ah now it makes sense.
The writer is a political economist and a visiting research fellow at Hebei University, China
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by RajaRudra »

Should we do some help now. how about keeping the border a little hot without limelight (media involvement). That will force the pukis to move their movement here and there, some time have to scramble the fighters here and there, which is going to eat into their fuel and maintenance cost and degrade the machinery.

Hot border - across all border (not just LOC) may be forced on us to prevent zombie like border breaking by a big population.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by vera_k »

williams wrote:No one is saying Paki nukes are in danger to fall into the wrong hands and hence need to keep the Pakis stable. This could only mean they have that under control and no one cares if the country rots financially to a point of no return.
Was mulling over why President Xi hasn't woken up with a Pak nuke under his bum given Chinese recalcitrance over waiving off debt. Lends credence to the rumor that Pak nukes are leased from China when needed.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by neeraj »

https://twitter.com/officialammad/statu ... 73089?s=20

Notice the AK toting dude. Only in pakistan :lol:
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Prem »

Paki manufacturing going the Afghan way
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1FQZEpW4B0
Deans
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Deans »

RajaRudra wrote:Should we do some help now. how about keeping the border a little hot without limelight (media involvement). That will force the pukis to move their movement here and there, some time have to scramble the fighters here and there, which is going to eat into their fuel and maintenance cost and degrade the machinery.

Hot border - across all border (not just LOC) may be forced on us to prevent zombie like border breaking by a big population.
Definitely something we should do. Ceasefire violation (there will always be some) should be replied to all across the LOC incl with artillery.
Narrative should be that despite all the economic problems in Pak, their army is still persisting in pushing in terrorists and defying the ceasefire agreement of their govt.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Deans »

A word on Pak unemployment statistics.
Officially 6.5 million unemployed, out of a workforce of 72 million which does not look like a lot.

However, approx. 6 million of these unemployed are in the manufacturing sector where 18 million work. Hence, official unemployment is 33%
Service sector does not show unemployment, only lower income. e.g. a shopkeeper will continue to sit in his shop, but earn less.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by vimal »

^^ Shopkeepers won’t earn anything if customers cannot pay. Even the customer will expect a credit line with no hope of ever repaying it back. Eventually, everything will just crash and burn. Inshaalla boyz played well
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Mollick.R »

Yepiiii, SDREs it has started floating........the rights, the entitlements, the bigheartedness, the big brother's responsibility/love syndrome, the claims of differentiation between aam abduls & elites (khakis) yada yada........ :rotfl: :rotfl:

Why Pakistanis Need India's Help to Survive Economic Collapse
By Hasan Suroor, TIMES OF INDIA.COM
Feb 20, 2023, 13:37 IST

India has every reason to be miffed with Pakistan for repeated betrayals by successive governments. However, New Delhi should also remember that its quarrel is with the ruling elite, not the suffering masses


Much of the Indian reaction to Pakistan's deepening economic crisis — both at the official and civil society level — has been largely marked by indifference, even barely concealed glee, with commentators lining up to declare Islamabad as the architect of its own misfortunes and lecturing it to set its house in order.

Any suggestion that India might offer a helping hand has been greeted with ridicule. So, it was rather brave of AS Dulat, one of India's best-known former spymasters, to stick his neck out while speaking at the Times Lit Festival last week. (Daulat & his types are last hope of porkies to a window of hope of discussions with current govt. of India)


In response to a question on the issue during a discussion on his new book, A Life in the Shadows , he noted that Pakistan was "in an awful mess in every way" — and then went on to suggest that "Modiji might bail out Pakistan. Maybe there will be talks with Pakistan before the year is up?" This left many wondering if he was joking or did he really know something we don't. Was there something going on behind the scenes to save Pakistan from total collapse?


To many, however, the very idea of India bailing out Pakistan which it regards as an 'epicentre of terrorism' and with whom it has doggedly ruled out any talks unless it renounces terror sounds like a bad joke. If anything, India's Pakistan policy has only hardened of late. Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's rather desperate call for talks recently was met with disdain in New Delhi.


And Islamabad was told to first create "a conducive atmosphere which does not have terror, hostility or violence", as ministry of external affairs (MEA) spokesperson Arindam Bagchi put it. Following which Pakistan too toughened its position saying that talks “can only take place after India had reversed its illegal action of August 5, 2019”, — a reference to the scrapping of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status.


In such a climate, Dulat's loud-thinking has little chance of flying. But that doesn't take away from the principled merit of offering help to a neighbour in extreme distress prioritising compassion over political differences. Indeed, it can prove to be the Modi government's most enduring legacy — likely to be long remembered by millions of ordinary Pakistanis reeling from the consequences of their rulers' criminal neglect of the country's national interest, and their consitutional duty of care towards the people who voted them to power.
India needs to show a big heart


It will also put in sharper focus India's much-acclaimed soft power and its long tradition of running humanitarian missions across the world, the earthquake-hit Turkiye being the latest case in point. Last week, a senior Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader wrote a long op-ed on how "India’s soft power is blooming under Modi" with the Prime Minister showing "a willingness to see beyond conflicts and do the right thing in the larger interest".


"This was visible during Covid-19, the Lankan economic crisis and now again in earthquake-hit Turkiye. This month saw déjà vu of that magnanimous, yet strategic mindset when India was among the first nations to respond with aid to Turkiye after a devastating earthquake. (terrorist, beggars are noticing it all) It is no secret that relations between the two countries had been strained, with acerbic exchanges and sparring at global forums over Jammu and Kashmir and cross-border terrorism. Such willingness to put aside slights and personal affronts, see beyond conflicts, and do the right thing in the larger national and global interest is rare, and easier said than done," wrote Baijayant 'Jay' Panda, national vice-president of the BJP.


He went on to say how it takes "a big heart, steely determination and a deeply held belief in a higher principle, in this case, Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam, Indic philosophy’s old vision of the world as one family.". Border Movie scene, begging by injured porki TFTA soillder , who was raised with mindwash that 1 TFTA mard e momin soilder == 10 SDRE baniya soilder, tumko tumhare rab ka wasta, mujhey mat marnaa....


Clearly, Pakistan doesn't qualify to be a member of this Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam presumably as a punishment for what Panda calls its "hostility" to India. Yet, in a preceding paragraph, he tells us that humanitarian spirit is all about "a willingness to see beyond conflicts and do the right thing in the larger interest". It would seem that in the BJP and the Modi government's view helping Pakistan serves no "larger interest".


True, India has every reason to be miffed with Pakistan for the repeated betrayal of trust by successive ruling establishments in Islamabad — from the Bhuttos to the Sharifs, and Pervez Musharraf. But here's the thing that is often overlooked: our quarrel is with Pakistan's political and military rulers — not with its people who who are the real victims of the existential crisis caused by their corrupt and cynically self-serving ruling elite. It's they who need our help :rotfl: :rotfl: — not the Sharifs, the Khans, the Bhuttos and their army mates.


Moreover, as a bigger and richer neighbour with a booming economy India can afford to be magnanimous towards its down-and-out neighbour. I dare say, it has a moral obligation to help the vulnerable people of Pakistan, notwithstanding its difficult relationship with Pakistan's bankrupt leadership. And, mind you, the people of Pakistan are not just any old neighbours. We were family once and are still bound by lingering ties of kinship and old friendships.

Moreover, for much of the past seven decades or so, it's the people-to-people contacts that have essentially sustained India-Pakistan relations whether through cricket, travel or exchange of writers and artistes; though lately they have all been dispensed with one by one. This is a great opportunity to go back to the people: the people of India reaching out to friends across the border in a time of crisis.


But the biggest argument in favour of averting Pakistan's economic collapse is that if it goes bust it could have serious strategic and security implications for the entire region, India not excluded.
As Farzana Shaikh, associate fellow of Asia-Pacific Programme at Chatham House, London and a strong critic of Pakistan's ruling elite warned: "Pakistan is not a small country — it is 220mn people, it's nuclear armed and if this economic crisis fuels instability, the spillover and effect on neighbouring countries could be quite serious. There is really no underestimating that.". A view echoed by many Indian analysts.


"If the Pakistani economy tanks completely, there is a possibility that India will have to face a refugee influx. And if Pakistan turns into a failed state, there is a possibility that terror networks will increase their influence within Pakistan, and that has the potential to directly harm India's interests," Sourish Ghosh, an independent researcher, told Moneycontrol .com.
There's an Urdu saying, "Hum to doobenge sanam, tum ko bhi le jayenge" (When we sink, my dear, we will drag you down with us too).



Let the message go out to Islamabad, that Delhi remains a city of dilwalon ki whose heart is still in the right place, irrespective of what they plot in Islamabad. :rotfl: :rotfl:

The writer is an independent commentator.


https://archive.ph/jlHaq#selection-1769.0-1801.40
Deans
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Deans »

vimal wrote:^^ Shopkeepers won’t earn anything if customers cannot pay. Even the customer will expect a credit line with no hope of ever repaying it back. Eventually, everything will just crash and burn. Inshaalla boyz played well
Yes, but they aren't officially unemployed. Pak is being disinginuous when it says unemployment is about 9% ( 6.5 out of 72 million).
In reality it is 33%
srin
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by srin »

There is pretty low likelihood of refugee influx if Bakistan goes down. In this, we have the indoctrination of aam Baki janta to thank. Why would they go to an enemy country full of kafir hindus ?

It is just a blackmail mechanism
Aditya_V
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

2 things, we can always as back up as BSF to fire on them, no one will mistake us. and indoctrination of theirs will help us. Most likely this is going to bring a wave refugees into Europe through Turkey, the fun will start there.
Bart S
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Bart S »

This whole BS about instability in Pakistan being bad for India is just amplification of Paki RAPE blackmail. Sure, there will be some fallout on India, but it is really going to be worse than a strong Pakistan flush with western money and influence that we had to deal with all these years?
Baikul
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Baikul »

This talk of debt and repayment is a vast misunderstanding. The region presently known as ‘Pakistan’ is where the Indus Valley Civilisation was located. This is known.

The IVC, as all know, is the progenitor of India. This too is common knowledge.

Thus in actual fact the name ‘India’, belongs to the area that a few unknown and misguided individuals only temporarily may have called ‘Pakistan’.

There being no ‘Pakistan’, the question of a loan outstanding or indebtedness becomes moot.

In fact it is incumbent on China and the lending agencies to review their internal procedures and fire a few staff if necessary - who the hell did they loan the money to?
Dilbu
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Dilbu »

NA passes IMF-dictated finance supplementary bill
ISLAMABAD: Despite clearly lacking quorum, the National Assembly after a lackluster debate on Monday passed the IMF-dictated Finance (Supplementary) Bill 2023, seeking to impose additional Rs170 billion taxes with minor amendments as Finance Minister Ishaq Dar held the mismanagement in the power sector and poor economic policies of the previous PTI regime mainly responsible for this economic burden on the masses.

In his winding up speech on the finance (supplementary) bill, generally known as the mini-budget, the minister informed the house that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) initially wanted the government to raise more than Rs800bn from tax and non-tax measures and that it took him and his team 10 days to convince the Fund to bring it down to the minimum level of R170bn.
Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

srin wrote:There is pretty low likelihood of refugee influx if Bakistan goes down. In this, we have the indoctrination of aam Baki janta to thank. Why would they go to an enemy country full of kafir hindus ?

It is just a blackmail mechanism
Why do Bangladeshis come to India. Why do Rohingyas come to India.

Why did the ghazis of yore come to India
Manish_P
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Manish_P »

Aditya_V wrote:2 things, we can always as back up as BSF to fire on them, no one will mistake us. and indoctrination of theirs will help us. Most likely this is going to bring a wave refugees into Europe through Turkey, the fun will start there.
Indian armed forces are a moral & righteous force. They will not massacre civilians/commit genocide. Containment camps yes, firing no.

How will they reach turkey? Air or sea is unlikely with the fuel crisis, lack of airplanes, ships etc

They have to do it via land - through Iran or/and Afghanistan.

The Iranians armed forces will stop the sunnis... The Afghans will do the same for non pashtuns.

No... it will be India.
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