Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[Parasu]

Russian telegram says that Russian forces have finally cut off the last remaining road to Bakhmut.

[NRao]

Russian telegram says that Russian forces have finally cut off the last remaining road to Bakhmut.

Trapping between 5,000 to 10,000 UKR troops

[vimal]

Are they Ukranians or "mercenaries" that seem to abound in those parts.

[Cyrano]

I suspect they will be mostly recent conscripts. Right wing militias have already moved back from frontlines few weeks ago, experienced AFU units would have evacuated next in all available vehicles leaving these hapless people with hardly any rations or ammo but crucially no vehicles so that they can't leave the front lines, to die.

I hope these people surrender quickly to Russian forces and save their lives.

[Cyrano]

https://t.me/loordofwar/81221

Can't be dated for sure but you get the idea...

[mody]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 808726.cms

As per article in today's economic times, Pakistan is supplying rockets for multi barrel rocket launchers for Ukraine. About 10,000 rockets have been sent to German ports for onward supply to Ukraine.

Which rockets are they supplying? 122mm rockets for Grad MBLR? Do the pakis have Grad MBRLs in their inventory?

[Aditya_V]

Most probably Grad roxkets supplied to them by China. In a 2way they are emptying their stockpile. Did Pro quo, US is supplying USD 450 million worth of F16 spare parts for free, Pakis are giving 122mm, shells 122 mm rockets, 155mm shells US residue Vehicles, small arms in Afganistan for Ukraine. The Russians have never punished them for their role in Afghanistan .

[NRao]

Interesting data/analysis:

[IndraD]

The War’s Violent Next Stage https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... -maps.html

both sides preparing to attack each other, Russia wants to take away Donbass fully then call for peace, Ukraine wants to capture Melitopol cut off Crimea

https://archive.ph/4GlSk

[IndraD]

Ukraine ‘prepared to use UK long-range missiles to strike Crimea
https://metro.co.uk/2023/02/10/ukraine- ... -18259874/

[Cyrano]

Dream on !!

[IndraD]

these are news to keep gora audience and ukrops happy ^

[chetak]

Most probably Grad roxkets supplied to them by China. In a 2way they are emptying their stockpile. Did Pro quo, US is supplying USD 450 million worth of F16 spare parts for free, Pakis are giving 122mm, shells 122 mm rockets, 155mm shells US residue Vehicles, small arms in Afganistan for Ukraine. The Russians have never punished them for their role in Afghanistan .

or, could they be shipping ameriki stockpiles that the ameriki forces have strategically positioned in some "friendly" territories for quick access and resupply in case the yellow stuff unexpectedly hits the rotating parts

there are such stockpiles in many parts of the world

[MeshaVishwas]

Rabid anti India news channel DW also confirming that the Uniformed Terrorists are arming the Russophobes.

First mention at 3:35.

[IndraD]

retreating Ukrainians blow up bridge in Bakhmut amid reports Russia closing in
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... closing-in

Social media posts indicate Ukraine has suffered thousands of casualties in and around the city, in particular since Russia mobilised thousands of men in October. Drone footage published by Ukraine’s military as well as graveyards in southern Russia show Russian losses have been enormous.

The blown-up bridge is reportedly located between Bakhmut and Kostyantynivka the next major city under Ukrainian control, according to Eastern Edition, a local news Telegram channel, which posted videos from the area.


Aside from the blown-up bridge, the Donetsk regional administration announced new measures restricting journalists’ access to Bakhmut on Monday, citing the danger of Russian reconnaissance groups attempting to penetrate the town. Also on Monday, Russia’s ministry of defence claimed victory over Krasna Hora, a settlement north of Bakhmut

[k prasad]

I saw only three bridges on the road between Bakhmut & Kostyantynivka: two small ones (60-70 m span) over a canal and a small river that can be easily bridged, and a longer one near Kostyantynivka over the rail yard, which shouldn't be an issue to cross, since it is not a water obstacle. Plus, If the Russian forces are at the rail yard, then Ukr has bigger problems than the loss of Kostyantynivka. It'll be pretty important for them to hold the Russians before they can capture the city, especially since it lies along the road to Donetsk.

[YashG]

Rabid anti India news channel DW also confirming that the Uniformed Terrorists are arming the Russophobes.

First mention at 3:35.

I will not take this at facevalue. there is some fine print + something thats not being said.

fine print is that european govt. are pledging money but not signing up orders.
Whats not being said is that Ukraine will not run out of ammunition (US will ensure), this is just some misinformation with ulterior motive of goading some european governments into NATO style action. Basically NATO like support for a non nato country.

[MeshaVishwas]

My point was just regarding Terroristan supplying big numbers of Chinese illegal copies of Soviet ammunition through NATO to the Ukrainians.
What is China's play here?
What exactly (other than some chump change in $) are the terrorists getting in return?
I see the Quid, don't really see the pro Quo.

[Y. Kanan]

Hearing Indian ex military and other commentators, Russia has been given a bum rap for their incompetence. Yet, in the end Russia will win. As they say, the US will fight but only to the last Ukrainian. Here's an article which talks about what may be happening...or is it hopium ?
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/war-update-03f

I don't think the Russians were ever "incompetent" in this war. An incompetent army cannot attack a technologically superior foe, while outnumbered, and achieve any kind of success. And before all you Russo-philes take issue with my assertion that Ukrainian military enjoys technological superiority, I'm talking about the aspects that actually matter on the battlefield, like secure comms, night vision down to the individual infantryman, man-portable anti-tank and anti-air weapons in abundance, GPS\GLONASS for all, that sort of thing, the boring stuff that actually determines success on the battlefield. Ukraine has enjoyed technological superiority in all the important aspects of this conflict from the start, thanks to the US & pals.

Considering all of Ukraine's advantages, it's actually surprising they've been on the ropes for this whole conflict.

Can you imagine what ISIS could have achieved with all that high-tech gear that was given to the Ukrainians? The Ukrainians are so timid by comparison. Despite the hype I'm not really impressed with Ukrainian "fighting spirit". They've under-performed pretty badly considering all the advantages they have.

[Cyrano]

High-funda equipment doesnt compensate for training, tactics, combined arms experience and leadership in this kind of conventional high intensity war. NATO/US tactics expect some degree of air superiority and CAS. In Ukr they have none.

What use are all the gizmos you listed when the enemy uses attack drones to pin point your location and they shell you day and night from beyond the range of your own arty or rockets? As soon as you fire your arty, Russian battlefield radars get your location and do area saturation arty or rocket firing in response. If you dont shoot and scoot immediately, you're dead. Many Ukr-returned mercenaries and Ukr soldiers have lamented about fighting a Russian army they mostly never see or confront man to man. Most of their fellow soldiers died of shrapnel and blast concussion. Not enemy bullets. Soldier to soldier confrontation happens only when Russian forces have shelled the shit out of a zone and Wagner/Spl forces units move in for mop up or take surrendered as PoWs. This has been the dominant type of battle for the past few months and the casualties on each side bear this out.

The training and outfitting of Ukr units was done based on NATO's experience in the past 2/3 decades - low intensity conflict against poorly trained and equipped militias.

ISIS fighters or any such small unit ie militia type fighting forces, if they go against Russian forces in this war wouldn't have done any better. Russian _army_ despite all its alleged and actual incompetencies is a wholly different beast.

So I actually think Ukr forces have been quite brave in this lopsided situation. Is is because of their zeal to defend their land or the fear of a rightwing militia man's bullet in the back... we dont know for sure. For the moment, out of respect every solder deserves, I'll assume its Ukr solders' bravery.

[Cyrano]

BTW, this often repeated description in western media that RuA is badly equipped is only partially true, and less and less so over the past year.

They have very effective anti drone jammers that made byrakhtars etc ineffective. Their anti-missile systems have been s/w upgraded to counter himars quite well, though not 100%. They have used up a lot of mothballed old arty, tanks etc in the past year, we are seeing more and more T90s and Terminators now as we enter decisive phases of the conflict. Their scooter engine attack drones have no response from NATO yet. Nlaws and javelins - we dont hear about them scoring kills anymore. Comms seem to have been upgraded. DPR/DNR militias, Chechen, Wagner units, Spl forces, armoured units, regular infantry all seem to be very well coordinated now with superior C&C which is only possible if there is excellent realtime battlefield awareness. Logistics have been ironed out.

The hold, hold, hold and suddenly collapse is more likely to happen on the Ukrainian side than on the Russian side. Because all that Ukr forces seem to muster is barely hold on - actually they are retreating steadily and RuA is advancing bit by bit while minimising own casualties. Which is the right tactic in the current situation. There is still a possibility that NATO forces may get involved directly so RuA needs every soldier it has alive.

[IndraD]

Wagner chief says Russia's 'monstrous bureacracy' impeding Ukraine fight
Yevgeny Prigozhin says “Bakhmut would have been taken before New Year, if not for our monstrous military bureaucracy ... and the spokes that are put in the wheels daily” https://www.thehindu.com/news/internati ... 517338.ece

[IndraD]

[IndraD]

https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/statu ... 65571?s=20 young women being sent as cannon fodder in Ukraine?

[NRao]

49 seconds long

[Tanaji]

https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war ... war-levels

Apparently 97% of Russian army is in Ukraine. No idea how that number was derived from.

[Aditya_V]

The same sources for many years used to say 750K troops, i.e 75% of the Indian Army was in the Kashmir Valley for COIN operations.

When the war news is not pretty, more is the propaganda uped. Last year it was all Bayraktar was the mythical beast and every Russian tank lost capture din multiple videos, now no talk of Javellin, Nlaw and Bayraktar.

[Arima]

https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war ... war-levels

Apparently 97% of Russian army is in Ukraine. No idea how that number was derived from.

if 97% is in Ukraine then Murmansk to Siberia is manned by frozen mammoth from permafrost on border

[Avid]

https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war ... war-levels

Apparently 97% of Russian army is in Ukraine. No idea how that number was derived from.

If you read the American newspapers you would realize there is a constant angst about math to the extent that it is now a medical thing -- Arithmophobia!
https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/d ... of-numbers

Now you know how to contextualize the 97% and then not worry about the source or validity.

[Cyrano]

MUST READ
All Seeing Eye: Can Russia Break Through The West's ISR Overmatch?
We explore how Russia can deal with NATO/Five Eyes' vast space-recon capabilitiess during the coming offensives.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/all ... ak-through

[VKumar]

IMVHO Russia can bring in a lot more force but is restraining itself to prevent a WW3 situation. Application of more force would provide USA+UK+POLAND the excuse to openly enter the Russo-Ukranian war and convert it to WW3 with severe consequences to Russia and Ukraine.

[IndraD]

Zelensky changes stance on key battle in Donbass
Kiev's forces will only fight for Artyomovsk/Bakhmut while it remains reasonable, the Ukrainian leader says https://www.rt.com/russia/571759-zelens ... t-ukraine/

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has acknowledged that while the key Donbass town of Artyomovsk, which Ukraine calls Bakhmut, is important to Kiev, it is not worth defending at all costs.

Earlier this month, Zelensky insisted that “nobody is going to surrender Bakhmut. We’ll fight as long as we can.”

However, he gave a different account when asked whether it was worth losing men to maintain control of the strategic settlement during an interview with Italy’s Corriere della Sera newspaper on Sunday.

“For us it’s important to defend it, but not at any price and not until everybody dies. We’ll fight while it remains reasonable,” the Ukrainian leader replied.

Trying to hold on to Artyomovsk is crucial because “the Russians want to continue towards [the bigger cities of] Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, to the borders of Donbass and to Dnepr,” he explained.


Artyomovsk is a major Ukrainian stronghold and logistics hub in the People’s Republic of Donetsk (DPR). The key town is now on the brink of being encircled by Russian forces after a battle that lasted for months and had been described by Zelensky himself as “hell” for Kiev’s troops.

According to Western media reports, the US government, which promised to support Ukraine for “as long as it takes,” has been urging Kiev to withdraw from Artyomovsk since late January and instead prepare for future counteroffensives in other areas. However, Zelensky has been reluctant to comply with the American requests. Senior Biden administration officials told the Washington Post last week that the Ukrainian leader “attaches symbolic importance” to the town and fears a setback to morale if it’s surrendered.

[NRao]

^^^^^

Elensky was waiting for Biden the German meet was over. Would expect him to withdraw within a week.

[YashG]

A lot of narratives are same rn as they were when ukraine lost severodonetsk
- media reports of ukraine running out of artillery
- fancy visits by elensky and world leaders streaming into ukraine
- Ukraine about to loose a city and trying to hold on. Loss of H&D
- Fresh commitments of new weapons & escalation of weapons type provided

........

- All in all, reports of ukraine running out of weapons will disappear when the commitments US wants to knit together are reached.
- For sure Pentagon has a plan here - they are wargaming and have in mind certain resources and timeline required to make next offensive move aka kherson offensive. Its knitting together that package right now within their timeline
- Once that goal is reached, news of Ukraine running out of weapons will be replaced by news of how ukreen will evict russia
- Biden visit was like a campaign visit, fundraiser
- There is some commitment that US wants from EU that is not coming forth. Now that US has raised the stakes so much, this will not be over soon - this is like iraq or afghanistan or vietnam. US will not give up till they cant

[NRao]

IMHO, the key metric: Joe brought a whopping US $500 million for Ukraine!!!!!!

A year ago it was US $60 billion.

What a difference one alphabet can make and yet be missed.

[Avid]

MUST READ
All Seeing Eye: Can Russia Break Through The West's ISR Overmatch?
We explore how Russia can deal with NATO/Five Eyes' vast space-recon capabilitiess during the coming offensives.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/all ... ak-through

Great find Cyrano-ji!

I would highly recommend all 3 parts of this.
-------
Part 1. Addresses the number of Russian forces debate methodically and in great detail.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/the ... nsive-2023
-----
Part 2. Possible strategies in upcoming offensive (or already started offensive)
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/the ... nsive-part
----
Cyrano-ji shared this:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/all ... ak-through

[Avid]

Interestingly -- this from 2016 talks of CIA's role in Nazification of Ukraine. (one of the links from Part 2 above)
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2016 ... ince-1953/

[JE Menon]

Interestingly -- this from 2016 talks of CIA's role in Nazification of Ukraine. (one of the links from Part 2 above)
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2016 ... ince-1953/

Exactly, the budgeting from those days are now public documents. I have screenshots somewhere of this. In fact, I think I did a thread about it on Twitter sometime. Basically what happened can be summarised as follows:

The head of the Military Intelligence Armies East in Galicia (western Ukraine) was one Wehrmacht Major General Reinhard Gehlen, quite a successful officer in running Nazi networks within Ukraine. When the war ended, guess what, he was considered an asset because, you guessed it, Ukraine would be an espionage frontline for undermining the Soviet Union. Lots of Gehlen's Ukrainian collaborators were recruited and used in that role, while Gehlen himself went on to become the head of West German external intelligence agency (the Bundesnachrichtendienst - BND). Yes, that's right. He served many years.

Now the organization and groups that Gehlen ran in Ukraine had developed strong ties to the CIA, naturally, as they were the ones paying for them. Many of them and families moved to North America, including Canada - so when you hear that Deputy PM of Canada Chrystia Freeland is the grand daughter of a Nazi don't wonder why.

Now these guys were used all through the cold war until 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed and the Cold War ended. But the networks were only put into a chiller, not a freezer. They were revived again in the late 1990s, with another aim, to use them as a front edge of the battering ram against Russia as Brzezinski put in his Grand Chessboard. The model of course is the same one that Brzezinski created in his other attempt to defeat the Russians in Afghanistan, i.e. use a bunch of extreme radicals to defeat Russia. There it was the mujahedin who went on to become the Taliban, which then proceeded to humiliate the US in the worst manner possible: a bunch of rag-tag semi-literates with small arms and basic infantry held off a super power for 20 years and forced it to negotiate and return the country to them.

Be sure that in the current instance, i.e. in Ukraine, something similar is likely to play out. When this is done, the Ukrainians will regard the US as the one who put them in the mess they are in and cost them a country that went from being a place with potential to a place without a future.

Basically, what has happened in the US is a system hijack, where a lot of East European emigres and their supporters within the security ecosystem have launched a war which now challenges the overarching interests of the deep state, which composes a different set of Anglosphere elements who initially supported all this because they mistakenly assumed a cakewalk against Russia via sanctions and other techniques. Now that this has come to nought, they will find the most readily available scapegoats - guess who? Yes, the same cabal who were screaming for war in Ukraine, i.e. the East European emigre bunch and their supporters like Sullivan & Blinken.

I am expecting that the Anglosphere deep state will, sooner or later, rip apart this cabal (whom they used initially). But now it is time to cut losses. We can see the Seymour Hersh story as the first shot across the bows.

One particular community will face the brunt of all this, through no real fault of their own. Those poor guys have in fact been trying their best to end this whole mess, to no avail. Whether they like it or not, this Ukraine story will be one huge red check mark on their balance sheet - especially in Europe. In fact, they were just used by the Anglosphere.

[Avid]

Interestingly -- this from 2016 talks of CIA's role in Nazification of Ukraine. (one of the links from Part 2 above)
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2016 ... ince-1953/

Exactly, the budgeting from those days are now public documents. I have screenshots somewhere of this. In fact, I think I did a thread about it on Twitter sometime. Basically what happened can be summarised as follows:
....

Thank you! very informative and a bunch of rabbit holes for me to follow

[JE Menon]

My pleasure...the CIA reading room is a good place to start :

https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/ST ... S_0015.pdf