Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 27 Feb 2023 10:21

I distinctly remember, during the floods last year. PM Modi offered condolences to Pakistan for the enormous losses taken by Pakistan.

That message was turned arround and Pakistanis started saying that they should reject Indian aid to Pakistan.

This was when no Indian aid was offered to Pakistan.

Modi government knows how to keep it's council.

People should trust the government.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 27 Feb 2023 12:21

Friendly nations will not provide assistance without signing a deal with IMF. Now IMF says it will not release funds without third parties guaranteeing continued assistance to TSP. This is going around in circles.
Why IMF lending still stalled?

ISLAMABAD: Reticence amongst some of the friendly countries in disbursing already pledged support, roll overs, as well as additional lending is a major reason for the stalled ninth review of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

This was revealed to Business Recorder by well-informed sources while citing the criticality of disbursement of pledged external assistance for revitalizing the Fund programme.

The staff level agreement on the three-year Extended Fund Facility programme dated 12 May 2019 stipulated that “financing support from Pakistan’s international partners will be critical to support the authorities’ adjustment efforts and ensure that the medium-term program objectives can be achieved.”

And thenceforth each mandatory quarterly review international partners had assured the Fund that pledged assistance would continue till programme end (extended till end June 2023).

Roll overs of around 5 billion dollars have been announced by friendly countries; however the additional lending of another 4.5 billion dollars was reportedly conditional on the success of the ninth review but informed sources now tell BR that there is some additional reticence in this support from some of Pakistan’s additional partners. {Who is this partner showing reluctance to support? Is it tarrell than mountain fliend?}

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 28 Feb 2023 09:04

^^^^^

Exactly. Imagine a tattered beggar standing in front of a few donors with each donor pointing finger to the other and saying "if he donates, I will too".
NOw Pakis will need to step in front of each and ask for mercy. And goes to the next donor . In circles. The beggar is too thick to realize that donors are doing this deliberately to wiggle out of an uncomfortable situation.
The plight of the mighty martial race I tell you.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 28 Feb 2023 10:12

Neela wrote:^^^^^

Exactly. Imagine a tattered beggar standing in front of a few donors with each donor pointing finger to the other and saying "if he donates, I will too".
NOw Pakis will need to step in front of each and ask for mercy. And goes to the next donor . In circles. The beggar is too thick to realize that donors are doing this deliberately to wiggle out of an uncomfortable situation.
The plight of the mighty martial race I tell you.

Neela ji,

All these decades of dedicated institutional snake oil salesmanship was planned to milk potential supporters, subdue enemies, keep friends and foes in a state of uncertainty and imbalance and that institutional framework actively planned and manufactured per requirement, the design of the narrative and also pushed these specific narratives of convenience and expediency often wrapped in a thin cover of the show cased atmi takat, imagined and designated umah wide grandiose leadership entitlements etc which the pakis used to their self appropriated advantage, to skate on the thin ice that formed the very foundations of their mercenary state, the oft repeated and pre-emptive declarations of global primacy that was not only so subtly tolerated by the whites, but also encouraged by them because they saw a temporary and often transient value in these paki propositions, as indeed, did the gelf states, turkey and even eyeraaq. These tactics and strategy worked for the pakis but only until the whites and the eyraabs were sure that they could control this rogue state and the vermin that infested it worked to their advantage.

The pakis are the only state that has managed to seriously damage the cheeni OBOR/CPEC network by using terrorists to make their point. The cheeni have yet to devise a counter to this but the killings will continue until either the cheeni are out of the CPEC project or make adjustments to accommodate all the requirements of the paki deep state.

The paki treachery in afghanistan has opened many eyes in the white led anglosphere and that deliberate humiliation reeked of long supressed contempt and abrahamic malice that is inherent in the malsi mental makeup. No one has forgotten those ancient crusades, even after all these centuries of "civilizational bhaichara" Supporting erdogan against the saudis was another major self goal, and one that also decisively broke the bank.

erdogan took the paki side because he needed to possess malsi atmi takat to legitimize his claims as the natural successor to the uthman caliphate and also the rightful claimant to the caliphs throne.

This alone brings erdogan into direct confrontation with the many paki brown pant jernails who already think that the caliphate already belongs to them by the virtue of the "atmi takat" right, and also the saudis who are no slackers in the race for the caliphate department.

The BIF had established a treacherous, anti India cabal that was running India per their requirements since 1947, ABA's govt also did not change many of these established and entrenched parameters but the matters took a drastic turn when Modi barged onto the center stage and capitalized on India's natural instincts of civilizational ethos that showcased entrepreneurship, trade and self reliance and he also attempted to rectified the few major deficiencies that troubled us these centuries long, among other things, this included a sense of unity and a strong defence capability that was not only a deterrence but also a proven instrument to enforce India's state power beyond her borders when the need was felt to demonstrate such a determinant.

All aid is seriously transactional, and different aid givers have very different expectations and these expectations are always exigency based and vary accordingly. There is always a bill to be paid and this is a universal truth. The pakis, as a matter of state policy, have never acknowledged this.

The mercenary paki puncherwalla ummah know the price of everything but seriously screw up every time because they simply do not understand the value of anything. They have no concept of the tangible and the intangible because for them, the sword was and continues to be the way of all discussions, settlements, arbitration and adjustments, final or otherwise.

the blustering cheeni have only just realized this and all their paki based "projects" are at very serious risk unless these abrahamics entitlements are reconciled within this framework, as contrasted directly, for example, with the greedy leadership ecosystem and the tame and civilized populace that the cheeni are used to working with in SL and riding roughshod over.

That is why I am still wondering as to what exactly were the cheeni objectives and their plans for India when they tried so very hard to enmesh us in the CPEC.

What ever the cheeni wanted out of the CPEC was very specifically India based and not paki based.

In case the regime changes, India may still be dragged, willy nilly, into the CPEC octopus like embrace of the waiting cheenis.

But in the meantime, for both the cheeni and the pakis, Karma always catches up

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 28 Feb 2023 17:26

PAKISTAN-IMF STAFF-LEVEL AGREEMENT ‘DELAYED’

ISLAMABAD: Staff-level agreement between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Pakistan faces delay and is likely to be finalized in March, ARY News reported, quoting sources.

A staff-level agreement with Pakistan on the ninth review for a $6 billion loan facility that paves the way for the release of the much-awaited $1.17bn is facing delay despite Islamabad accepting the majority of IMF’s conditions.

Sources privy to the development said the staff-level agreement with the IMF is now likely to be signed in the month of March.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 28 Feb 2023 18:58

^ the IMF is getting the Pakis to implement each of their conditions before they even consider the meeting

No dua, no dawa, no daru - only more & more dard

Yawn - Govt to recover up to Rs14.23 per unit in fuel cost from consumers

Energy Minister Khurram Dastgir Khan on Monday told the parliament that the government would recover Rs 9.90 to Rs 14.24 per unit outstanding fuel costs from consumers of less than 300 units in an 8-month staggered schedule.

Mr Dastgir said an additional surcharge of Rs 3.82 per unit would also be imposed on those using above 300 units to fund power sector loans under the insistence of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Testifying before the National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Power, Mr Dastgir said the government had to satisfy the IMF on each and everything of the power sector after discussing all the facts and figures as the fund wanted an immediate increase in electricity rates to reach an agreement for an economic bailout.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 28 Feb 2023 20:09

Moody's downgrades Pakistan as default risks deepen

SINGAPORE: Moody's Investors Service Tuesday slashed Pakistan's sovereign credit rating to 'Caa3' amid critical loan talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), arguing that the worsening liquidity situation was "significantly raising default risks."

The cash-strapped nation has been in talks with the IMF to secure a $1 billion loan, which has been pending since late last year over policy issues. It is part of a stalled $6.5 billion bailout package, originally approved in 2019.

Moody's has also reduced the rating for the senior unsecured MTN programme to (P)Caa3 from (P)Caa1. Concurrently, it has also changed the outlook to stable from negative.

“In particular, the country’s foreign exchange reserves have fallen to extremely low levels, far lower than necessary to cover its import needs and external debt obligations over the immediate and medium term,” said Moody’s in a statement.

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 28 Feb 2023 20:37

https://www.dawn.com/news/1739521/dhl-s ... m-march-15

DHL suspends ‘Import Express Product’ in Pakistan from March 15

DHL, a global logistics company, announced on Monday to suspend some of its operations partially in Pakistan due to restrictions on outbound remittances by the government.

The government is not allowing dollar outflow while foreign shipping lines have also warned of suspending their operations in Pakistan as banks had stopped remitting freight charges to them due to the unavailability of dollars.

Trikaal · Post by **Trikaal** » 28 Feb 2023 21:30

Frankly, all of IMF's suggestions are very good and if Pakis implement them, they might actually turn things around with some luck. I hope whoever wins the next elections there decides to unilaterally withdraw all reforms and give relief to poor abduls. The situation needs to worsen some more before it enters irreparable zone, which the current govt is trying hard to prevent.

partha · Post by **partha** » 28 Feb 2023 21:34

Dilbu wrote:PAKISTAN-IMF STAFF-LEVEL AGREEMENT ‘DELAYED’

facing delay despite Islamabad accepting the majority of IMF’s conditions.

Look at the entitlement here. Pakis expect IMF to give them money without meeting all conditions.

I am reminded of a story from Mahabharata. After Krishna ended his avatar, Arjuna couldn't save women and children of Dwarka from a bunch of highway dacoits. Arjuna then realized it was actually Krishna who was the real power behind all his battle wins. With krishna gone, so was his power. Similarly, Pakis are now realizing all the previous "successful negotiations" with IMF to get funds without meeting all conditions was not due to their brilliance but just US pulling the strings in their favor to prevent any disruption to war on terror. With US gone from Afghanistan (as per the wishes of Pakis) Pakis are finding out what it means to actually negotiate an IMF program.

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 28 Feb 2023 22:25

Worse than that, Pakistan is caught in the Massa-Cheen feud.

"The west" doesn't want Pakistan to borrow money from IMF and return loans to china without a haircut. Cheen wants all its money back and will not take a haircut.

I think IMF conditions are strict because they want their money back and don't want to take a haircut if cheen is not taking one. Remember that most of Pakistan bilateral loans is with china.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 01 Mar 2023 06:03

Trikaal wrote:Frankly, all of IMF's suggestions are very good and if Pakis implement them, they might actually turn things around with some luck. I hope whoever wins the next elections there decides to unilaterally withdraw all reforms and give relief to poor abduls. The situation needs to worsen some more before it enters irreparable zone, which the current govt is trying hard to prevent.

This elections business does not suite Tafta Pakistan, the Munir chap needs to do a coup and save Pakistan

I can already picture the speech as ‘ Mere Azziz cuti yon..’

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 01 Mar 2023 07:07

I pray to the most gracious and merciful one to bring kaptaan back to power in Pakistan

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 01 Mar 2023 07:52

Basically Pakistan is going through a constitutional crisis. I do not know how many of you are following it.

Kaptaan had asked everyone to resign from KP and Pakjab assembly and all Youthias did it. Now the assemblies are dissolved. According to Pakistan's constitution, elections are to be held within 90 days.

Badmash-Chota Badmash-10% coalition does not want elections because they know they will get wiped out. (a) They are not popular (b) Following IMF conditions means that Abdul, his begum and 12 children do not have atta, electricity or petrol.

So chota badmash made a call to the big danda Munir, told him that he wont sign off on IMF conditions (this is speculated, because the staff level agreement, according to chota badmash will take a week or two) unless Big danda postpones all elections to later this year or next year.

So Army said it is unable to provide security for elections. Judiciary said it is unable to provide returning officers. Taliban said they cannot spare yahoos for bombing. Mafia said they cannot spare their Goondas for booth capturing. ISI said their afsaraan are too busy for rigging. So election commission of Pakistan said it is unable to conduct elections.

The president who is a Kaptaan appointee, unilaterally declared a date for assembly elections, because he is the constipational head, and the constipation requires passing motions within 90 days.

Now they want to debate if it is constipational according to Pakistan's constipation.

So they formed a supreme court bench. The registrar of Supreme court made an arbitrary bench and gave the case to the bench. Some supreme court justices want to know how the registrar gets to pick which cases to argue and who gets to pass judgements. Some of the Milords objected to other Milords on the bench. Some of the lawyers complained some Milords they wanted were not on the bench.

Long story short, I stand behind Kaptaan!!

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2403693/cr ... of-benches

Crisis deepens in SC as two judges question shuffling of benches

The crisis in the Supreme Court (SC) deepened on Tuesday as Justice Qazi Faez Isa and Justice Yahya Afridi refused to hear cases on account of the sudden change in the composition of their benches.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2403225/ru ... onstituted

Three ruling political parties on Saturday asked the Supreme Court to form a bench comprising all SC judges, except Justice Ijazul Ahsan and Justice Sayyed Mazahar Ali Akbar Naqvi, to hear the suo motu case about the delay in the announcement of dates for the Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa assemblies’ elections.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1739563/fresh-questions

Moreover, one of the justices on the reconstituted bench had raised questions about a brother judge’s presence on the earlier bench, terming it “inappropriate”.

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 01 Mar 2023 08:13

Anujan wrote:Basically Pakistan is going through a constitutional crisis. I do not know how many of you are following it.

Very well explained

thanks I didn't pay much attention to the various motus featured on Dawn.

Pakistan goes through constitutions the way Kaptaan goes through wives. Pak is in its 4th constitution and Kaptaan with his 4th wife, with both Pak and Kaptaan being disloyal in equal measure to the constitution and wife.

neeraj · Post by **neeraj** » 01 Mar 2023 08:55

Anujan Saar - what a lucid explanation.

ThAt is why BRf is so addictive

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 01 Mar 2023 09:13

On Pak's forex situation:
The crisis started last year when imports (in 2022) increased from $ 58 bln to $80 Bln.
Exports increased more modestly from $ 25 to 31 bln
That $ 48 bln trade deficit had to be made up by remittances.
Remittances in 2022 were around $ 29 billion, leaving a gap of $ 19 billion, which contributed to depletion of forex reserves.

Remittances have been falling since last Nov (for 4 consecutive months now) since more people are converting through the Hawala route
where the exchange rate has touched 300 in the Kabul black market.
Forex reserves have stabilised because imports have stopped. However, exports and remittances have also slowed, so there is a very slow increase
in forex reserves, which is coming at the cost of crippling their exports.

Between Apr and June, Pak has to pay between $ 10 - 12 Billion in debt repayment. If they pay that, their forex reserves go to 0. If they don't, they officially default. This will happen even if $4-5 billion repayment is deferred by agreement with the lender. The $ 1 bln from IMF does not make much difference in the overall scheme of things.

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 01 Mar 2023 10:56

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2403833/is ... -goalposts

Islamabad baffled by IMF moving goalposts

It is “rare” that despite implementing tough decisions with high political cost, the coalition government has to deal with a situation where the global lender keeps changing the goalposts constantly...

The government has faced this unusual situation for the first time in the past 25 years where during almost every interaction, the IMF had come up with a different demand, they added....

Regional countries, with the exception of China, too, are largely siding with the IMF, further complicating the situation.

The best way forward is to somehow get Massa to invade Iran and then Pakistan can offer logistics

Pakistan has lost $50B due to US not invading Iran

The sources said that the IMF has projected the external financing gap at $7 billion compared to $5 billion being worked out by the Ministry of Finance. In order to end the difference, the Pakistani authorities have requested the IMF to lower the deficit projection by $1 billion.

“Another $1 billion can be lowered by reducing the foreign exchange reserves building requirements,” the sources said.

Outraged that IMF does not have madrassa math experts

Pakistan is still hoped that it will be able to get $2 billion from Saudi Arabia and $1 billion from the United Arab Emirates in additional loans to bridge the gap. Also, it is eying $2 billion from the sale of assets to these nations, although the Gulf countries have not been fully cooperating.

IMF was still expressing apprehensions that the government was manipulating the price. “The IMF sees the exchange rate close to the grey market rate,” the sources said and added “This is not true.”

“We have explained our position but the IMF somehow does not understand it,” said the sources.

I think "sources" here is the RAA agent code name Mohammed Ishaq Dar real name Michael Isaac Darmendra

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 01 Mar 2023 11:02

Anujan wrote:ht

The best way forward is to somehow get Massa to invade Iran and then Pakistan can offer logistics

Pakistan has lost $50B due to US not invading Iran

Why Not get Pakis to Invade Iran and funded by Massa, Pakistan- Taliban Alliance can afford to loose a 100 million, and 100 million wannabes can volunteer from the other areas of the Subcontinent and travel there.

partha · Post by **partha** » 01 Mar 2023 11:02

Thanks for the summary Anujanji. Dentist unilaterally announcing election date was the funniest part of the clown show.

Meanwhile Pak Govt is publicly airing their "unhappiness" about IMF's strict conditions and IMF not falling for Paki .

https://www.dawn.com/news/1739675/govt- ... -goalposts

• Authorities say lender ‘changed its mind’ on at least four prior actions
• Officials hint at ‘1998-like situation’, say foreign capitals working for Pakistan’s ‘meltdown’
• Despite its pro-poor mantra, sources claim Fund pushing measures that may hit low-income groups

I have a feeling that current PMLN Govt thinks Imran Khan or someone else will be brought back either through election or selection hence they are dragging the IMF negotiations. Later PMLN and allies will claim that they never "sold out" to IMF and will announce dharnas against the next Govt which will be forced to accept IMF's conditions to get money. That's how PMLN and allies will recover lost political ground.

Pakistan army can't even conduct a coup now since that will mean they will own the economic sh*t show.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 01 Mar 2023 11:07

Pakistan has lost $50B due to US not invading Iran

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 01 Mar 2023 11:14

Pakistan central bank may hike rates another 200 bps to unlock IMF funds

KARACHI, PAKISTAN, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Pakistan’s central bank is widely expected to raise its key policy rate by 200 basis points in an off-cycle meeting on Thursday as it struggles to unlock critical funding from the IMF, a Reuters poll showed.

Investors had anticipated an emergency meeting, which is not uncommon in Pakistan. The next meeting of the central bank's monetary policy committee was originally scheduled for March 16.

All sixteen economists and market watchers surveyed said there would be a hike -- 14 of them predicted 200 basis points (bps), while two expected 250 bps.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 01 Mar 2023 11:16

Anujan wrote:https://tribune.com.pk/story/2403833/is ... -goalposts

Islamabad baffled by IMF moving goalposts

It is “rare” that despite implementing tough decisions with high political cost, the coalition government has to deal with a situation where the global lender keeps changing the goalposts constantly...

The government has faced this unusual situation for the first time in the past 25 years where during almost every interaction, the IMF had come up with a different demand, they added....

Regional countries, with the exception of China, too, are largely siding with the IMF, further complicating the situation.
The best way forward is to somehow get Massa to invade Iran and then Pakistan can offer logistics

Pakistan has lost $50B due to US not invading Iran

It's payback time for afghanistan.

This is the second superdooper power that the pakis have wilfully humiliated, absurdly celebrated their "victory", and injudiciously lionized themselves.

The cheeni are well on their way to achieving a similar status with the jehadi killings that the pakis are orchestrating over their CPEC disappointments and the anticipated pay outs not materializing to benefit the puncherwalla awam and the pakis have yet to learn much about playing in the big boys' league, especially when well over half their greedy and perfidious elites are holding dual citizenship status.

The IMF conditions are specifically meant to pauperize the pakis and show them their aukat and this is a well coordinated white and eyeraab enterprise.

The expected result is low growth prospects, lower GDP, and a very restive awam that makes every paki politico and brownpant walk the tightrope and their jobs that much more difficult.

It's a bit of bad news for India because the eye ess eye reached self sustainability some years ago because they control the entire drug trade emanating out of the opium factories in afghanistan.

and almost the entire process of the refining of opium into heroin is done in and around jalalabad with the afghans completely cut out

CalvinH · Post by **CalvinH** » 01 Mar 2023 11:50

Basically COVID was lucky for Kaptaan else Pakis would be looking at this state in 2021 itself. So Chinese are telling pakis that they have already supported Pakistan. Dont ask for me more!

But its amazing to learn here that it may not be the IMF that is delaying the package. Its the government that is putting the fake show and waiting for Khakhis to delay the election firmly before government fulfills the conditions.

All eyes are on the Paki SC today. Will establishment be able to manipulate the milords the way they used to do before? A watershed moment in Paki history...

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 01 Mar 2023 12:47

Anujan wrote:Basically Pakistan is going through a constitutional crisis. I do not know how many of you are following it.

.....

Long story short, I stand behind Kaptaan!!

....

A masterpiece of a post!

Sir, any chance we can get a compilation of your calculus equations of the type:- 'Pakistan has lost $'N'B due to 'A' ____ 'B'

some recent examples:-
'Pakistan has lost $50B due to US not invading Iran'
'Pakistan has lost $70B due to West causing climate change'

Someone can send them to the paki FMs and help them build a case to beg more forcefully

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 01 Mar 2023 13:07

Deans wrote:..The $ 1 bln from IMF does not make much difference in the overall scheme of things.

Right sir. The Pakis are well aware that it is not going to do much for their situation in the coming months hence they were quite vocal about wanting another IMF program immediately after the release of this tranche.

They think that continued aid/loan packages from the IMF (the west) are the easiest way to get their gulf sponsors to give them more aid/loan to pay off Tallel fliend & do ghazwa-e-hind.

They are calculating that the US desperation to cut down china is sufficient enough for them to stave off any pressure to reform their feudal, jihadis-for-hire societal structure.

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 01 Mar 2023 13:16

Milords have spoken

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2403848/sc ... in-90-days

The Supreme Court ordered on Wednesday that elections in Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) should be held in the next 90 days with the chief justice saying that 'democracy cannot exist without assemblies'.

The verdict was split 3-2 with Justice Mansoor Ali Shah and Justice Jamal Khan Mandokhail dissenting with the majority. Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Umar Ata Bandial, Justice Munib Akhtar and Justice Muhammad Ali Mazhar supported the ruling.

Best option for Chota Badmash is to resign, appoint a caretaker government of technocrats, which either defaults or accepts IMF conditions.

I hope RAA agent codename Mohammed Ishaq Dar (YYY Officer Michael Ishwara Dershowitz) continues to be finance minister

mody · Post by **mody** » 01 Mar 2023 13:24

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/pa ... 4135&ei=10

Pakistani Officials Accuse the IMF of mis-treatment. How dare they treat an Aatmi Takaat in this calous manner. Lahore Via Kuwait!!

" Pakistani authorities claimed that the global lender changed its mind at least four prior actions ahead of the staff-level agreement. They claim that even though the IMF publicly says it wants to help Pakistan’s low-income groups, the demand put forward by them would not lead to that outcome.

A senior official said the country was being mistreated by the global lender.

The authorities, however, conceded that there were gaps in Islamabad’s diplomatic efforts and Pakistan’s credibility gaps coupled with trust deficit were key reasons why “some capitals were working for Pakistan’s meltdown”.

Pakistan projected a $5billion financing gap for the current fiscal year but the IMF estimated that the all-inclusive financing gap will be $7billion. Authorities are also hopeful that State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves would cross to $10bn by June-end, rising by $7bn from the current $3.1 billion.

Pakistan has secured $1.3bn inflows in three tranches from Chinese banks, the Dawn reported. Pakistan has already received $700 million from China and it will receive $500m and then $300m in a few days time. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have also agreed to send a total of $3 billion.

The IMF and Pakistan are locked in a debate regarding four items on the unfinished IMF loan programme agenda – one, the IMF wants an early hike in the central bank’s interest rate to represent general inflation; two, exchange rate movement to cater for outflow to sanction-hit Afghanistan; three, written assurance from friendly nations for external financing gap and four, the continuation of Rs3.39 per unit financing cost surcharge on electricity consumers for coming years through the finance bill, instead of the four months proposed by the government. The Pakistan government and the IMF are not able to reach an agreement because of the fourth item.

Tax Refund Delay Worries Investors
Pakistan owes PKR 93 billion to multinational companies operating in the country in the form of tax refunds. The foreign investors’ representative body demanded answers from Pakistan’s revenue collection authority on this issue.

According to the news outlet Dawn, companies like Procter and Gamble Pakistan, K-Electric and several others will receive billions of Pakistani rupees in tax refunds from the government. Hub Power Company Ltd sales tax refund is the highest, with the company set to receive PKR 9 billion. K-Electric will receive PKR 8.6 billion and Procter and Gamble Pakistan Ltd will receive PKR 2.4 billion. There are other companies also on the list to whom Pakistan owes over PKR 3 billion each."

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 01 Mar 2023 15:33

There is an old joke that used to do the rounds over here. There are these 2 pakistani beggars, one making a killing and the second one struggling. The one struggling turns to the affluent one and says, Abdul we are both begging and you do so well and I am struggling. Your kids attend private schools, you have more than one house etc, please help me! Abdul gives it some thought and agrees to help.

Abdul says show me your sign, and it reads “Wife and six children to feed, please help” and immediately says no, no, no this will not do. Look at mine and it reads “Short of £50 for a ticket back to Pakistan”. QED.

I am certain there is a moral here!

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 01 Mar 2023 15:40

Paki rupiah hits another 4 thanks to the new ball taken by the IMF

Yawn - PKR plunges by Rs 4.5 in interbank market

The Pakistani rupee’s value declined sharply in the interbank market on Wednesday, with the local currency trading at Rs265 per dollar around 1pm, according to data shared by the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (Ecap).

This equates to a depreciation of 1.72 per cent from yesterday’s close of Rs 261.5 a dollar.

Ecap Secretary General Zafar Paracha attributed the rupee’s depreciation to the delay in the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for an economic bailout.

“The rupee and the economy are both under pressure again and the main reason is the delay and new conditions by the IMF

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 01 Mar 2023 16:24

Power sector: IMF has concerns about next year’s circular debt: Dastgir

ISLAMABAD: Minister for Power, Khurram Dastgir Khan said on Tuesday that International Monetary Fund (IMF) has concerns on government’s proposed mode to deal with power sector circular debt in the next fiscal year.

Responding to questions during a press conference, the minister, who also faced IMF team during its recent visit, said that issues related to circular debt flow in current fiscal year have already been sorted out but the Fund is concerned over next year’s plan.

The Minister categorically stated that there would no increase in basic tariff of electricity consumers.

Secretary Power, Rashid Mehmood Langrial informed National Assembly Standing Committee on Power that current stock of circular debt is Rs 2.6 trillion. The government has already submitted its requests to Nepra for imposition of additional surcharge on consumers across the country.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 01 Mar 2023 19:23

mody wrote: Pakistan projected a $5billion financing gap for the current fiscal year but the IMF estimated that the all-inclusive financing gap will be $7billion. Authorities are also hopeful that State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves would cross to $10bn by June-end, rising by $7bn from the current $3.1 billion.

As per my calculation (back of envelope, but more accurate than Madrasa math) IMF has actually taken an optimistic view of Pakistan's finances.
I do not for e.g. see forex reserves of 8 Billion by end June as the IMF suggests (let alone $10 bln in Pak's estimate).

partha · Post by **partha** » 01 Mar 2023 21:41

Anujan wrote: Best option for Chota Badmash is to resign, appoint a caretaker government of technocrats, which either defaults or accepts IMF conditions.

Chota Badmash doesn't seem like the intelligent type else he would not have agreed to become the PM and own this mess in the first place

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 01 Mar 2023 22:23

IMF is being very sneaky here. Despite what we think of US interests and their influence with the IMF, it is the IMF which is forcing Pak government hand to cut the establishment. This is how it is being achieved - IMF asks for a budget, Pak produces one without touching the boyz pocket money. IMF hems and haws, inflation kicks in and PKR value drops. They ask for another budget, with more spending on welfare. Pak produces one, but this time it can't increase boyz pocket money although inflation has kicked in. IMF dilly dallies again, then says not enough revenue, redo it. Pak puts more taxes and drafts another budget. This has been going on for several months now, inflation is like 40% and PKR has been holding its low value, hasn't crashed yet because of the ill-advised and counterproductive restrictions on legitimate users of Forex (like DHL and airlines).

When IMF is all done, we can expect to see boyz money reduce in real terms by 30% although in PKR it would be holding steady. IMF can claim that they understand Pak security concerns and did nothing to hurt it. Civvie badmashs can claim that they were following IMF orders and bravely preserved establishment budget. Boyz can lick their wounds.

This is sure to hurt the establishment because corner plots, golf courses and fine scotch will continue to flow, meaning that foot soldiers will suffer and so will armaments. Boyz may look for other ways to make money, e.g. supplying arms to Ukr, sending mercenaries and providing PSL security (protection money really).

sudhan · Post by **sudhan** » 01 Mar 2023 22:59

partha wrote:
Anujan wrote: Best option for Chota Badmash is to resign, appoint a caretaker government of technocrats, which either defaults or accepts IMF conditions.
Chota Badmash doesn't seem like the intelligent type else he would not have agreed to become the PM and own this mess in the first place

Why would anyone smarter than a cantoloupe accept this? But this is lalaland..

As long as the elites have safe havens in UK, ME and elsewhere, the post provides plentiful bounties (if the IMF bailout comes), juicy enough to ignore temporary takleefs..

It would be interesting to see who fights for this wretched seat as soon as IMF starts looking seriously into the kickbacks and under the table dealings that benefit the ruling elites..

Unscrupulous nations who Condomize the napakis go through the Brown pants anyway, cutting out the politicians..

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 02 Mar 2023 00:07

partha wrote: Chota Badmash doesn't seem like the intelligent type else he would not have agreed to become the PM and own this mess in the first place

Chota Badmash takes his orders from bada Badmash. Both were stupid enough to believe that Ishaq Dar is a an economic genius and master negotiator who knows how to handle the IMF and will take the exchange rate back to 180. This despite this same gentleman presiding over two prior similar crises. That should tell you everything you need to know about their intellect.

Despite the usual paki lamentations of IMF being part of a saazish to weaken the great atami taakat their "conditions" are only the bare minimum needed to make sure the paki govt. policy actually reflects the reality of their economic situation.

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 02 Mar 2023 00:10

yensoy wrote:IMF is being very sneaky here. Despite what we think of US interests and their influence with the IMF, it is the IMF which is forcing Pak government hand to cut the establishment.

Whatever is happening is not even that complicated. Pakistan has had 23 IMF bailouts. IMF's own economists have written a research paper "why is Pakistan coming back again and again to IMF" and concluded that despite not meeting obligations Pakistan continues to get bailouts due to geopolitics.

In the current negotiation for example, IMF wants a permanent increase in electricity charges to cover generation and distribution costs so that circular debt does not go up to unsustainable levels.

For which Pakistan has responded*

PERMANENT?! HOW CAN IMF DEMAND PERMANENT WHEN THEIR PROGRAM ENDS IN JUNE?! JEEEEEEHHHHAAAAARRRRDDDD!!!
WHERE IS MY SOOSAI VEST?! BRING ME AYESHA AND KUSHPOO I WILL SAY GOODBYE TO THEM!!
AK PHYRRR!!!! RPG PHYRRR!!!!**

If Pakistan is selling electricity below generation and distribution costs and is running up deficits and therefore going back to IMF it is reasonable to demand permanent reforms, rather than a commitment to reform till the program ends, wait for 1 year and go back to IMF.

*
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2403833/is ... osts?amp=1

The sources said that the IMF’s demand to “permanently” impose debt servicing during the next fiscal year surcharge could not be justified.

The IMF programme is going to end in June and it is not understandable why the IMF was pushing Pakistan to take steps for a period when it will not be under the fund programme, said the sources

https://www.dawn.com/news/1739675

The coercive situation is no different than in 1998 when the West wanted “Pakistan’s denuclearisation” and moved behind the scenes to punish the nation for nuclear tests, an official said, adding that this time some powers had Pakistan’s missile programme in mind.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 02 Mar 2023 07:27

Anujan wrote:...
Whatever is happening is not even that complicated. Pakistan has had 23 IMF bailouts. IMF's own economists have written a research paper "why is Pakistan coming back again and again to IMF" and concluded that despite not meeting obligations Pakistan continues to get bailouts due to geopolitics.
....

And will continue to do so.... till India is brought down completely under the influence of the west.

Super powers become so because they think not in terms of decades but in terms of centuries..

The Pakis have known this need of the erstwhile empire, and its current successor, ever since they were birthed. Suits them perfectly to let all the bania SDRE Hindoos do all the hard work while they can get paid just to sit outside the doors and be a nuisance.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 02 Mar 2023 09:59

Why can’t pakis just print fake notes
They seem to be an expert in this area

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 02 Mar 2023 09:59

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2404008/ip ... n-pakistan

IP gas pipeline delay may lead to $18b fine on Pakistan

Pakistan risks a fine of $18 billion for not completing the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline project in the timeframe stipulated in the agreement, the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) was informed on Wednesday.

Pakistan has lost $18 billion due to gas pipeline delay.