Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[eklavya]

^^^
NATO matters more than ever, after President Putin’s clear demonstration that he is prepared to attack a non-NATO country like Ukraine, but can do nothing against even very small NATO countries like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. NATO is the foundation of Europe’s defence against President Putin and his expansionist vision for Russia.

[IndraD]

apple vs orange or should i say kaddu? Estonia is not committing genocide in East Ukraine of Russians nor are they erasing orthodox christians

[gakakkad]

nothing against even very small NATO countries like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania

Pretty much an untested assumption. The article 5 has never been invoked against a legit adversary . Also expansionism lies in the eyes of the beholder .

Also Ukraine has different meaning for Russia than the other Baltic states (Latvia etc) . Eastern Ukraine including Odessa was always a part of historic Russia . Catherine the great was from Odessa . The population does not mind being in Russia . Putin knows very well that the Baltic states would rather not be governed by Russia . And he has no reason to invade them . That is more protective to them than NATO.

I've not seen unreasonableness from Russia . Early in the war Russian tanks even obeyed traffic laws .

We are making some very big assumptions about American military capability. One must remember that nothing is as advertised .

Let me pose an epicurean paradox .
Let's say Russia is as irrational as they say it is. It invades Latvia and article 5 is invoked A hypothetical but realistic scenario for instance is a bunch of kinzhals wiping out 4-5 us navy carriers. Even the POTUS admitted kinzhals are unstoppable.what non nuclear option does US have thereafter ? An attempted decapitation strike on Kremlin would invoke nuclear response. would US want to take such risks ? If US is not willing to take such risks what's the point of NATO ? And if US is willing to risk nuclear annihilation for Latvia than it is at least as irrational has the hypothetical Russia in the above scenario.

If Russia is not as irrational as they say it is than there is no point of NATO .

[ramana]

https://www.orfonline.org/research/lear ... ed-forces/

[Cyrano]

NATO is an arrangement for the US to keep its military bases and missiles in Europe in the name of security umbrella. EU countries have no credible military capability, no MIC capacity nor the stomach to fight a conventional war with Russia on land, air and sea. Their economic outlook was weak even before this war, and now with high oil prices, they are crippled for the foreseeable future.

Putin's objection to NATO expansion was to deny US unfettered access right up to his doorstep. With Finland joining NATO, the west may paint it like a big victory but besides increasing risks of getting drawn into a conflict on its soil for Finland what does it really achieve?

[Yagnasri]

Catherine the great was from Odessa .

IIRC She was a German lady.

[gakakkad]

^ sorry. I meant to say "Catherine the great founded Odessa "

[Cyrano]

https://www.orfonline.org/research/lear ... ed-forces/

Wow one of the authors has the same family name as my mother but I have never heard of him !

[eklavya]

… but besides increasing risks of getting drawn into a conflict on its soil for Finland what does it really achieve?

It achieves the opposite of what you have said.

Joining NATO significantly reduces the risk of Finland being subject to an attack by Russia. Which is why Finland, the FSU Baltic states, and all of the ex Warsaw Pact E European countries, have joined NATO. As a security guarantee against Russian aggression.

In Finland, the Parliamentary vote was 188-8 in favour to join NATO. I suspect the 188 MPs who voted in favour know what they are doing and are doing what is right for their country.

President Putin is well aware that his armed forces cannot match NATO, which is why he is against Ukraine joining NATO.

[gakakkad]

odessa port bombed

word of the street is that a counteroffensive is planned by UKr. on Zaphorizhia with end goal being Melitopol using 50 new IFV , 30 odd tanks and 50k+ men including mercs..honestly this is madness . personally the fastest way this ends is a coup in Kiev. the only other alternative is continuing the meat grinder till there is non left to grind...

[bala]

epicurean paradox.
Let's say Russia is as irrational as they say it is. It invades Latvia..
If Russia is not as irrational as they say it is then there is no point of NATO.

Beautifully said. The capture of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will be 1/2 days worth of effort and throw in Finland for 1 day. What will Nato do? Kinzhal & Tsirkon strike would wipe them out. Tis Russia's neighborhood and they have all the resources. The NeoCons/Libs are truly moronic in their thinking and they have the Eurotards thinking with them.

[hgupta]

Eklavya, you really need to take a geography lesson.

There can be no practical land invasion coming through Finland or Norway to attack Russia. Logistics would simply not permit it. Russia has ample defenses around St. Petersburg that it can beat back any NATO invasion with east. The main weakness is Russia's underbelly and that is Ukraine.

All invasions of Russia has occurred through Ukraine and Belarus. Putin has managed to keep Belarus within Russia's orbit. Putin failed to win the covert war back in 2014 and lost his ally in a violent coup de etat in 2014. Putin had to act fast. He first moved in Crimea which ensured that NATO would not get easy naval access to Ukraine. And of course there is the pro Russian element in eastern Ukraine. To protect Russia's underbelly, it is crucial that territory extending all the way to the banks of Dnieper River is under Russian control. Ideally Odessa should be included as to avoid any naval reinforcement at sea. Nonetheless, having Crimea and the Donbass region under control, he has at the very least ensured that Russia's underbelly is somewhat protected. He still has to go to the banks of Dnieper River to achieve a stable secured protected area to guard against its underbelly. Once he achieves that, Russia can ride out any NATO expansion or such. NATO would not survive for another 20 years. Russia has the resources to wait NATO out.

[Parasu]

… but besides increasing risks of getting drawn into a conflict on its soil for Finland what does it really achieve?

President Putin is well aware that his armed forces cannot match NATO, which is why he is against Ukraine joining NATO.

Amreeka is against Cuba joining Russia-China because Amreeka is well aware that its armed forces cannot match Roos-Cheen.
Seriously?!

[eklavya]

New Weapons Aren’t Enough: The Challenges of Ukraine’s Coming Assault

New Weapons Aren’t Enough: The Challenges of Ukraine’s Coming Assault
With powerful Western weapons, newly formed assault units and even a reconstituted Azov battalion, Ukraine is poised for a critical spring counteroffensive. But overcoming casualties and keeping war-weary troops motivated will be stern tests.

Published April 3, 2023 Updated April 4, 2023

By Andrew E. Kramer

Andrew E. Kramer and Mauricio Lima reported from Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine.

In vicious but mostly static fighting in snowy, artillery-cratered fields and ruined cities, Ukraine rebuffed a Russian offensive over the winter. Now, it is Ukraine’s turn to go on the attack.

Signs are everywhere that it is coming in the next month or so.

New Western weapons that could prove critical in assaults, like German Leopard 2 tanks and American mine-clearing vehicles, are arriving in Ukraine. Thousands of recruits are training in newly constituted units tailored for offensives. And the military command is holding back elite soldiers from the worst of the fighting in the east, in and around the city of Bakhmut, to throw them instead into the coming campaign.

After more than a year of war, Ukraine is battle hardened. “We are covered in three centimeters of stone,” one fighter, Lt. Ilya Samoilenko, said in a recent interview.

But that toughness has come at a steep cost. Ukraine has lost thousands of its most experienced fighters. Now Lieutenant Samoilenko, a veteran commander and survivor of the siege of the city of Mariupol, is using his experience to train new recruits.

The new Ukrainian campaign, when it comes, will be a test of its army’s ability to re-arm and reconstitute battalions while maintaining the motivation and maneuvering skills that gave it an edge in three previous counteroffensives.

The timing is critical. Success for Ukraine in the battles on the southeastern plains would drive home to the world the declining military might of Russia, ease concerns that the war has settled into a quagmire and most likely encourage Ukraine’s allies to further arm and finance Kyiv in the war.

Western support has been solid so far but is not guaranteed. The U.S. budget for military assistance, for example, is now expected to run out by around September, and a senior American defense official recently described the latest tranche of artillery rounds and rockets sent to Ukraine as a “last-ditch effort.”

“The key point in the eyes of Washington elites — and Washington elites are the judge and jury on this — is that Ukraine has to be seen as having gained significant land in the coming offensive,” Cliff Kupchan, chairman of the Eurasia Group, a political risk assessment firm in Washington, said in an interview.

The challenges are daunting.

Ukrainian officers will have to choreograph artillery, infantry and armored vehicle assaults that crash through Russian trenches, tank traps and minefields. In the south, Russian units have been building defensive positions since they were pushed out of the Kherson region in November. Sophisticated Western tanks, with better survivability and firepower, will be critical in uprooting those positions.

Ukraine had a standing army of about 260,000 soldiers before Russia invaded last year, and it quickly swelled to about a million people bearing arms in various branches of the security services and military. Over the past year, about 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or wounded, according to Western estimates. Ukraine has not revealed how large a force it will commit to the counteroffensive.

Ukraine is seen as planning to drive a wedge through Russian occupied territory along the southern coasts of the Black and Azov Seas, near Crimea, or to seek a humiliating turnabout in the fighting in the eastern Donbas region — or both.

If weapons and trained troops fall into place in time, Ukraine is capable of inflicting losses on the Russian Army that could have far-reaching geopolitical consequences, Evelyn Farkas, the director of the McCain Institute, said in a telephone interview.

She posited a once-unthinkable outcome: that Ukraine could render Russia a weakened military power in Eastern Europe with little leverage in negotiations to end the war.

“People lack imagination,’’ Ms. Farkas said. “They only envision what they see now.”

But much could change, she said, with the influx to the front lines of the new Western weaponry and the tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers who have been training for the operation at home and in Europe.

Still, success is hardly assured. Allies have dragged their feet in sending weaponry, and soldiers have had to make do with crash courses in assault tactics.

“It’s a lot to learn in a short time,” said Rob Lee, a military analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. And, he noted, “they will have to go before they get all the equipment.”

The weaponry and equipment for breaching trench lines and crossing minefields is falling into place, though it remains unclear if in sufficient quantity.

The Ukrainian military has posted photographs on Twitter of Stryker and Cougar armored personnel carriers from the United States, Marder armored vehicles from Germany and Challenger tanks from Britain. Last week, Ukrainian crews for Patriot air defense missiles wrapped up training in the United States, the Pentagon said.

The counteroffensive, at least in its opening stages, could well hinge on crossing sprawling minefields, military analysts say. To do so, Ukraine will be relying on the unglamorous but crucial mine-clearing machines it has in its Soviet-era arsenal. It has captured some from retreating Russians and is now also receiving mine-clearing devices from the West.

The Russian military has a vast arsenal of anti-tank and anti-personnel mines, with colorful nicknames like the Black Widow and the Leaf, some specifically designed to complicate demining with booby traps.

The demining can be done manually, with specially trained soldiers probing the soil and keeping a close eye for trip wires as they walk in front of assault units, or with specialized mine-clearing machinery. These vehicles fire a rocket that tows a long line of explosives. Draping the line over a minefield, then detonating it, clears a path for soldiers or armored vehicles.

If the engineers do not say “it’s done, the route is clear,” the infantry will not attack, said Markian, a lieutenant who commands a Ukrainian mine-clearing unit. He asked to be identified only by his first name and rank.

Preparing for the counteroffensive has come at a cost.

Russia has used convicts and mercenaries to wear down the enemy in the monthslong fight at Bakhmut, stretching Ukraine’s exhausted, battered soldiers to the limit. Ukraine has tried to avoid taking the bait, deploying volunteer Territorial Defense units and delaying rotations.

The village of Oleksandro-Shultyne, on one of the flanks in the battle for Bakhmut, for example, is defended now by the Ukrainian Volunteer Army, a unit that blends civilian volunteers with enlisted soldiers.

Lt. Ilya Samoilenko, a veteran commander and survivor of the siege of the city of Mariupol, is using his experience to train new recruits.
The village is a tableau of ruins, mud and snow. For months, seemingly endless waves of Russian soldiers waged assaults and the local commander, who goes by the nickname Sokil, or Falcon, conceded that his soldiers had been killed and forced to give ground in the months while Ukraine was fighting defensively.

But he hardly seemed disheartened.

“They concentrated their forces here,” he said of the Russian Army. “What does that mean? That we will attack somewhere else. And we have every possibility to do that now.”

In the counteroffensive, Ukraine is likely to launch intensive artillery bombardments along a narrow stretch of frontline, military analysts say, followed by demining teams and tank assaults.

Ukraine is widely expected to strike in the south, where the terrain ranges from wide-open farm fields, with only sparse tree lines for cover, to towns and villages. A thrust of about 50 miles over the steppe from the current front lines to the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol would split Russian-held territory into two zones, sever supply lines and put Ukrainian artillery within range of Russian bases on the Crimean Peninsula.

Preparing new recruits to replace dead, wounded and exhausted soldiers has been taking place for months. Tens of thousands of new recruits have undergone training in Europe and inside Ukraine, including in newly formed Offensive Guard units. About 35,000 Ukrainians have signed up for the assault units.

But morale, an area in which Ukrainian fighters held an edge for much of the war, is becoming more of a challenge. In a dozen or so recent interviews, soldiers at positions near Bakhmut or emerging from the crucible of street fighting for short breaks expressed dismay at the scale of violence and death.

“It’s never a calm sea,” Masik, a sergeant who was manning a position south of Bakhmut, said of his state of mind. “It goes up and down. I want to see my family, my kids.”

In one of the most striking examples of military rebuilding, the Interior Ministry is reconstituting the decimated Azov unit, all of whose active-duty soldiers were killed, wounded or captured in the siege of Mariupol and the holdout at the Azovstal steel works last spring. Others died in an explosion at a Russian prisoner of war barracks in Olenivka.

One recent day, at a base in a pine forest, new Azov recruits marched, stood at attention and dropped for push-ups. They were learning basic soldiering skills in five weeks.

“We will train new people, to raise them up to our level,” said Lieutenant Samoilenko, who was freed from Russian captivity in a prisoner exchange.

To ensure that only the most motivated soldiers wind up in its assault unit, recruits are given a choice. At the end of the training course, they can choose to remain at the base, rather than deploy to combat. To do so, they ring a bell indicating they prefer to stay.

“We know how Russia fights, and we know how to counter it,” Lieutenant Samoilenko said. “Resilience is the ability to find new people, to move forward.”

[Yagnasri]

UKNs have one million men under arms? Really. They are all trained also. Really?

Let us see how and when this magic happens.

[Cyrano]

It won't be magic but tragic for the Ukrainians

Russia hasn't been sitting idle. They have built successive lines of defence with tank traps, trenches and pill boxes all along the Donbass. On the zhapo melitopol axis there are three such defense lines one after the other to protect Crimea which they know is highly coveted by NATO which will give them dominance over black sea. Russia will never let that happen.

What will a couple of brigades of older gen western tanks with hastily trained troops achieve except getting them killed in a couple of weeks?

NATO might be hoping to really threaten capture of Crimea and force Russia to use tactical nooks and use it as an excuse to escalate. Which is the most foolish thing to do.

[Pratyush]

UKNs have one million men under arms? Really. They are all trained also. Really?

Let us see how and when this magic happens.

It has been reported that the Ukrainians are taking people off the streets and drafting them into the army. So it's quite possible that the Ukrainians can have several hundred thousand men in uniform.

How many have the training to be useful in combat. How many of them can be used in cohesive formations is a question that cannot be answered in the fog of disinformation.

[Cyrano]

Not just reported, there are hundreds of videos of men getting rounded up on the streets since months. The obvious contradiction between admitted training of tens of thousands of new conscripts many are young boys or older men 50+ to replace their dead and wounded, endless spread of graves adorned with blue and yellow flags, and the Kiev rhetoric that we are killing Russian orcs by the thousands every day with 1:10 kill ratio etc propaganda doesn't seem to bother these 2 bit experts from dubious sink tanks.

Poor Ukranians! Though they have much to blame I've started feeling even they don't deserve to be sacrificed like this for NATO's mindless obsession to take down Russia.

[YashG]

More seriously, any updates on the Frontlines,

1) Status of battles in Kupyansk, Bakhmut , Lyman etc
2) When is predicted date for Ukrainian offensive towards Crimea
3) Will Ukraine try an Amphibious assault on Crimea or across the Dnieper

There is no element of surprise here on the ukrainian offensive - so surprise will be mostly tactical and Im assuming that ukraine is massing forces and new weapons in the rear. Question is Russia prepared for this ? How are they planning to foil this whole counter offensive and the narrative with it.

[Cyrano]

Why the doubt? Russia is well prepared, there is photographic evidence for the defenses I mentioned above. The mechanised forces Ukraine will put together will allow one or two probing attack columns seperated by 30-50 kms at most, headed towards melitopol. I'd expect Russians to gradually withdraw South instead of confronting them at the current battle lines, to give them a false hope of breakthrough and draw them in deeper before encircling them. Then rain missiles and air attacks on the rear to prevent any further push.

I only hope Ukr troops will quickly surrender instead of dying by the thousands. Hope that will satisfy Zelinsky's khujli and they will come to negotiations.

[ParGha]

https://www.orfonline.org/research/lear ... ed-forces/

First off, Ukraine is not a nuclear weapons state and Russia is a NWS; Pakistan, India and China are all NWS's. This fundamental difference changes the lessons completely; it has the following implications:

1. In the unlikely scenario of a direct conflict, the stronger power (India wrt Pakistan, and China wrt India) will be racing against time to take out the enemy's First Strike capabilities to reduce the impact of a nuclear escalation. Deep-strike and ASAT are Day-0 missions. And China has the additional burden of locating and destroying India's Second Strike capabilities. Russo-Ukrainian conflict textbook has nothing to say about these these issues, and they are a BIG chunk of the total defense spending (a single SSBN costs as much as three Armored Divisions).

2. In the much more likely scenario of an indirect conflict, the Russo-Ukrainian conflict provides updates to the Indian text-book; however, there are no new chapters.

• Hybrid warfare with "deniable" forces? Within two months of Independence in 1947, Pakistani tribal kabilies (raiders) and army officers launched a hybrid and "officially disowned" attack; repeat in 1965 and 1999; PLA recce troops also scouted NEFA defenses disguised as muleteers from Burma in 1962.
• Information warfare through new media? A Sialkot based Punjabi radio-station started sowing fear-uncertainty-and-doubt between Hindus and Sikhs in 1955.
• Proxy wars? Manipur insurgency (Pak and China supported), Bangla insurgency and secession (India supported), Afghan insurgency (Pak and Chinese supported), Khalistan insurgency (Pak supported), Sind and Baloch separatism (India supported), Kashmir insurgency (Pak owned).
• Salami-slicing? Chinese occupation of Aksai Chin in 1958; Pakistani attempt at occupation of Siachen (1984) and Kargil (1999).

This is NOT to say, "we know everything, and we have nothing to learn". It just means, Indians need to view the Russo-Ukrainian data from an Indian lens:

1. At a tactical level, proxy wars will become more tactically violent. Just as the proliferation of AK-47s and IEDs suddenly increased the violence-levels in 1980s India, the small improvised drones will again increase the violence-levels. Painful, but manageable.
2. At an operational level, salami-slicing will become more common. Early detection is the best way to prevent salami slicing. More investment in ISRT, especially persistent ground coverage in harsh climatic conditions; convert some armored regiments to 30+ Recce & Surveillance squadrons.
3. At a strategic level, India can learn more from what is NOT happening between Russia and US (rather than what is happening between Russia and Ukraine). I am happy to see a few flag-ranked Indian officers recognize it obliquely in interviews and podcasts.
4. At an institutional level, the government has taken some baby-steps to defend India from information warfare over new media and technologies. But often those steps are rather hamhanded (Internet blackouts), clumsy (no consistency in messaging), and politically compromised (distinction between genuine democratic dissent and sedition are blurred). A more surgical, consistent and politically-united approach is needed.
5. At a cultural level, the Indian people need to quickly come to a consensus on the rules of behavior to live in a diverse, democratic and open society. And stick to the rules, and enforce those rules consistently. Without this, all institutions will crumble, all strategies will fail, and all operational and tactical doctrines will only make the end even bloodier.

[Anoop]

1. In the unlikely scenario of a direct conflict, the stronger power (India wrt Pakistan, and China wrt India) will be racing against time to take out the enemy's First Strike capabilities to reduce the impact of a nuclear escalation. Deep-strike and ASAT are Day-0 missions. And China has the additional burden of locating and destroying India's Second Strike capabilities. Russo-Ukrainian conflict textbook has nothing to say about these these issues, and they are a BIG chunk of the total defense spending (a single SSBN costs as much as three Armored Divisions).

Very interesting post, Sir. I am however intrigued by the claim that the first day salvo will be to take out first strike nuclear capability. We didn't see it in Kargil, where both countries kept it local and below threshold and we didn't see it in the buildup to Op Parakram, which should have seen the IAF activated before waiting for IA's Strike Corps to reach their war time positions.

I suspect that the ramp up to that level of escalation will happen gradually, with both parties allowing each other plenty if off-ramps. Your post suggests otherwise. If nuclear strike decapitation is Day 1, what would Day 0 look like? If it is like the Russian build-up before Feb 24, India did something similar in Op Parakram and so did the PLA in 2020, albeit on a smaller scale. So those parallels don't hold. Waiting to hear your thoughts.

Thank you.

[Pratyush]

Kargil was a case of a state pretending to be a non state actor.

Where the state had by necessity chosen to keep a low threshold. India returned the favour.

Same cannot be assumed to be a case between PRC and India.

No one in his right mind is going to pretend to be a non state actor between India and PRC. Therefore the assumption of limited conflict doesn't arise.

It will be a full scale conflict.

The going after nuclear assets or not is function of the war aims. i.e, can the PRC be confident that they can take Arunachal. While defeating the in theatre Indian forces.

Can they be confident that in the unlikely event of a defeat of Indian forces. India will sit on it's behind and not use nuclear payloads.

Also note that any one coming after Indian nuclear capacity creates a use it or lose it dilemma for India. Guaranteeing an Indian nuclear use.

[Tanaji]

An attack on nuclear assets significantly increases the chances of a nuclear response as it then means that deterrence has broken down and the attacked party is faced with use it or lose it type of scenario. I doubt US will not respond with nuclear weapons if someone took out their missile bases in Montana or specifically targetted their boomers.

[Cyrano]

For me the most important lesson is that Wolfowitz is wrong or at best grossly misunderstood.

War is bad diplomacy by whatever means.

Wars can sometimes be won, but the antagonism will remain for long after, and will come back to claim it's due at some point, in some costly ways. Especially with neighbours.

[Avid]

For me the most important lesson is that Wolfowitz is wrong or at best grossly misunderstood.

War is bad diplomacy by whatever means.

Wars can sometimes be won, but the antagonism will remain for long after, and will come back to claim it's due at some point, in some costly ways. Especially with neighbours.

And in that you have hit the main point of any hot conflict between India and China. The conflict's goal would not be to end the problem through military means, but to initiate a negotiated end to the border disputes. That said, I recognize it sounds far simpler than it is -- and any initiation of hot conflict will have to be deemed absolutely critical and clear-headed.

If we take a very long time horizon -- dispute and conflict between India and China is not in the interest of either and will have to be resolved (and likely will be resolved). So, a resolution is a must. When? that's the big question! That said, an acceptable long-term resolution is not possible between unequal parties. We are seeing the fallout of a supposed resolution between unequal parties in Ukraine (that West says is binding and Russians believe was imposed). IMHO, it will happen when India has near parity with PRC (as was the case between Russia and PRC resolving their borders) or PRC shows grace and approaches the resolution with such eventual parity in mind. PRC could do that, but CCP cannot. It is trapped in the makings of its own propaganda; and the accumulated trust deficit over the decades. So, I believe that the most likely outcome is ... we wait patiently to gain that necessary parity and manage the conflict diplomatically and militarily till that point.

[ParGha]

I suspect that the ramp up to that level of escalation will happen gradually, with both parties allowing each other plenty if off-ramps. Your post suggests otherwise.

Will future conflicts always be a neat two-party conflict where escalations can be carefully calibrated? If the locally superior power (India wrt Pak, or China wrt India) feels trapped in a two-front confrontation (India between China and Pak, or China between India and US+Japan), the decision-making change dramatically. As I qualified, this is an unlikely scenario, but it is the standard of crisis to which a NWS like India or China must plan, arm and train. Otherwise, why are they both spending billions of dollars on LO F/Bs, PGMs, CMs/IRBMs, ASAT missiles, etc.? And billions more on fighters, ABM defenses and Second Strike capabilities like SSBNs.

[dnivas]

It seems you are at least misinformed or more likely unable to cope with the reality that it's time to recognise what type of actors US and it's allies really are. They coordinatedly parroted ad nauseum "Russia's unprovoked and illegal invasion" and like many people around you seem to have fallen for it. Re-reading this thread from the beginning may help.

Even Russian children know the truth about this war; the one unable to cope is the President of Russia.

Russia is persecuting dissenters by taking away their children

Russia is persecuting dissenters by taking away their children
..............
According to ovd-Info, a human-rights watchdog, over 500 minors have been arrested and seven criminally prosecuted since the start of the war. With the authorities encouraging loyalists to snitch on their anti-war neighbours, the practice of hitting dissenters where it hurts—their families—is set to continue. “They will go after others, imprison more people, and take more children away from their parents,” says Mr Biliyenko. “Children of enemies of the state. That’s the example they are creating for anyone who might think about opening their mouth.” ■

lol what. You are quoting the economist. The enonomist has also said that Russia has missiles for three weeks. Putin has cancer. You are a gone case my friend.

[Cyrano]

If we take a very long time horizon -- dispute and conflict between India and China is not in the interest of either and will have to be resolved (and likely will be resolved). So, a resolution is a must. When? that's the big question! That said, an acceptable long-term resolution is not possible between unequal parties. We are seeing the fallout of a supposed resolution between unequal parties in Ukraine (that West says is binding and Russians believe was imposed). IMHO, it will happen when India has near parity with PRC (as was the case between Russia and PRC resolving their borders) or PRC shows grace and approaches the resolution with such eventual parity in mind. PRC could do that, but CCP cannot. It is trapped in the makings of its own propaganda; and the accumulated trust deficit over the decades. So, I believe that the most likely outcome is ... we wait patiently to gain that necessary parity and manage the conflict diplomatically and militarily till that point.

Absolutely Avid.

I believe CCP is realising how its display of close ties to Russia has led to a sudden exponential increase in its clout on the global stage. They will see it as "with Russia aligning behind us, we have so much more leverage, imagine if somehow we get India to align behind us, we will be unbeatable".

They have been calling for normalised ties for a while now, India through Dr SJ has been rebuffing saying "we cant have normalcy in relations with an abnormal situation on the border" thus offering no easy way out of its mistake. CCP being what it is, needs to spin some victory claim before backing off. India knows China cant do much more militarily and we are OK to wait it out until China comes up with an acceptable proposal. China might be finding deployments in the Himalayas to be like swallowing a golf ball thats stuck in your throat. Cant really swallow, but cant spit out and look like a fool. Perceptions created are an important part of CCPs self conscious calculus.

The bolded part might also apply to the US in Ukraine as well. The common thing in both situations is that China and the US didn't or couldn't stop to think "what if it doesn't work out?".

[IndraD]

[Anoop]

Will future conflicts always be a neat two-party conflict where escalations can be carefully calibrated? If the locally superior power (India wrt Pak, or China wrt India) feels trapped in a two-front confrontation (India between China and Pak, or China between India and US+Japan), the decision-making change dramatically. As I qualified, this is an unlikely scenario, but it is the standard of crisis to which a NWS like India or China must plan, arm and train. Otherwise, why are they both spending billions of dollars on LO F/Bs, PGMs, CMs/IRBMs, ASAT missiles, etc.? And billions more on fighters, ABM defenses and Second Strike capabilities like SSBNs.

Thank you for your response. But I don't see how these conclusions follow from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. For example, the Russians are fighting not just Ukraine, but their Western proxies which includes 3 nuclear powers, but they haven't reached for their own nuclear weapons yet. Similarly, do you think India can realistically pull off a successful nuclear first strike against Pak, let alone Pak plus China? Or that China can do so against India and the US? And what are the consequences of failing in that attempt?

As for why is anyone building up second strike capability, I would argue that it is precisely to dissuade any enemy from attempting a futile first strike. Same for ABM. As for cyber and ASAT capability, they can also act as deterrents or deniable warnings e.g. Chinese hacking of the Mumbai power grid during the border crisis or a warning to rhe US not to intervene in Taiwan.

It's also worth asking what other capabilities the US and China would spend on, if not LO jets, SSBN and carriers, ASAT and directed weapons. There's an inevitability to an arms race between peer powers that drives decisions much as occupying the next mountain peak for fear of ceding an advantage. Surely a rising China that seeks to dethrone the US is not going to spend the bulk of it's defense budget on rifles and tanks.

[IndraD]

Secret US Documents On Ukraine War Plan Spill Onto Internet: Report https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/secret- ... rt-3927982

Washington, United States: Secret documents that provide details of US and NATO plans to help prepare Ukraine for a spring offensive against Russia have spilled onto social media platforms, the New York Times reported on Thursday.
The Pentagon said it is assessing the reported security breach.

"We are aware of the reports of social media posts, and the Department is reviewing the matter," Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said.

The documents were spread on Twitter and Telegram, and reportedly contain charts and details about weapons deliveries, battalion strengths and other sensitive information, the Times said.

Information in the documents is at least five weeks old, with the most recent dated March 1, the report said.

One of the documents summarized the training schedules of 12 Ukraine combat brigades, and said nine of them were being trained by US and NATO forces, and needed 250 tanks and more than 350 mechanized vehicles, the newspaper said.

The documents -- at least one of which carried a "top secret" label -- were circulated on pro-Russian government channels, it said.

Information in the documents also details expenditure rates for munitions under Ukraine military control, including for the HIMARS rocket systems, the US-made artillery rocket systems that have proven highly effective against Russian forces, it added.

[Cyrano]

Summary analysis of the documents would be great.

[Avid]

Summary analysis of the documents would be great.

Edited. Removed links.

Instead suggest you read here more

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/maj ... paign=post

[Cyrano]

Thank you Avid

[Avid]

Thank you Avid

You are welcome.

According to NYT

Military analysts said the documents appear to have been modified in certain parts from their original format, overstating American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understating estimates of Russian troops killed.

The modifications could point to an effort of disinformation by Moscow, the analysts said. But the disclosures in the original documents, which appear as photographs of charts of anticipated weapons deliveries, troop and battalion strengths, and other plans, represent a significant breach of American intelligence in the effort to aid Ukraine.

They don't indicate what the real numbers are; or what evidence there is to indicate that originals have been modified.
As with many things the claim on "Russian disinformation" IMHO is insufficient to disregard this; but caution necessary in consuming the information leaked as well.

[Cyrano]

https://dcweekly.org/2023/03/29/us-dept ... ner-group/

US Dept of Defense Officials say they are “Worried about Russia’s PMC Wagner Group”
DOD Analysis of Russia's "Wagner Group" is an eye-opening lesson in efficiency and effectiveness and "we have a lot to learn from them."
- Peter Carroll

Insiders at the United States Department of Defense have told DCW staff they are worried about Russian Paramilitary Contractor (PMC) “Wagner.” An unnamed official says Wagner is the most Highly Organized and combat-ready private military company in the world, surpassing even that of American PMC Blackwater (also known as Academi), the British PMC Aegis Defense Service, the French PMC Salamandre.

According to the source, there is good reason for such worry; Various independent international institutions and analytical groups have recognized that the PMC Wagner as being the most effective Russian military unit, with the Military Company simultaneously performing combat missions on three continents – in Africa, Asia and Europe. This is absolutely unprecedented both in terms of geographical coverage and quality as well as quantity of missions assigned to the PMCs. One of the factors behind the success of the PMC Wagner is their ability to quickly mobilize and deploy forces anywhere in the world, responding to the changing situation on the spot. In addition, the soldiers of the armed forces are highly skilled and specialized. This allows Wagner to effectively carry out various types of tasks.

Compared with the aforementioned private military companies, (Blackwater, Aegis Defense Service and Salamandre), the operations and functions of the PMC Wagner are much more extensive and complex. Russian private fighters are not only helping leaders and governments of foreign countries in need of security. The highest level of training and equipment allows Wagner to provide security services at a level previously unattainable for private military units.

As the Russian war in Ukraine has shown, PMC Wagner is able to act in the interests of their country and maintain a high level of combat effectiveness despite obvious difficulties. Well-coordinated cooperative work of the headquarters allows their soldiers to perform the tasks set by Russia without the help or support of other units. One DOD official who acts as a liaison for American PMCs to whom we spoke, involved in these types of operations in Afghanistan said, “It’s absolutely mind boggling at their effectiveness. If we had employed similar strategies in Afghanistan, we wouldn’t have created the mess we left behind in the middle east.”

Asked why he thought they were so effective, he stated, “Well-coordinated work of all parts of the Wagner organization proves their effectiveness time after time. This factor makes it possible for Wagner soldiers to storm fortified objects without civilian casualties. In combat zones, PMC members carry out security and personnel protection tasks, as well as supporting a wide range of humanitarian operations, escorting convoys and guarding military objects.”

Obviously, with the significant volume of military missions and their geographic dispersion, a high level of organization of logistics chains and military-tactical communications are required. This is necessary to ensure the efficiency and safety of operations and includes all processes and operations related to the transportation and delivery of military vehicles, equipment, personnel, as well as various resources necessary for the successful achievement of the assigned goals. Logistics also takes into account all the conditions and specifics of a particular mission, such as the geographic, climatic and cultural aspects of the deployment location. Even the military units of the best world armies do not always manage to build a system of communications in such a way as to perform a range of combat tasks. Given the complexity and ramification of the goals of the PMC Wagner, its management is perfectly performing the assigned tasks.

According to many expert estimates, the fighters of the Wagner perform a number of tasks of increased complexity and risk. It’s not only a traditional for all PMCs missions such as protecting diplomatic missions, corteges, industrial and technological facilities such as factories, deposits of natural resources and laboratories. It is mainly the most difficult by its implementation combat operations: ground attacks, control of artillery, air weapons and air defense systems usage. Fighters of the PMC Wagner perform the tasks of intelligence, information gathering and data analysis, which later used to make strategic decisions during the missions.

The Private Military Company Wagner is one of the most discussed organizations in today’s world politics. Their effectiveness is widely recognized and beyond any doubt. The organization’s contribution to ensuring national security and protection of national interests has been the object of scrutiny of dozens of military experts around the world. War analysts are already trying to figure out the causes and factors of success of the Wagner PMCs for a long time. It should be clear that neither in today’s world nor ever before there was a structure similar to Wagner. The unique experience of Wagner will be studied by military analysts and international institutions in the field of security for years to come

[IndraD]

thanking you Avid!

[Avid]

thanking you Avid!

Very welcome! I am glad I stumbled upon it.

[Avid]

https://dcweekly.org/2023/03/29/us-dept ... ner-group/

US Dept of Defense Officials say they are “Worried about Russia’s PMC Wagner Group”
DOD Analysis of Russia's "Wagner Group" is an eye-opening lesson in efficiency and effectiveness and "we have a lot to learn from them."
- Peter Carroll
....

(The link is dead... so cannot read at source or know what the validity of the source is)

The first few paragraphs was sort of interesting, and then the language deteriorates and it almost reads like a puff piece or propaganda that might have been written by PMC Wagner PR

I live in the area and have never heard of DC Weekly

Added later: Peter Caroll is the head coach of Seattle Seahawks NFL Team. I cannot find any journalist by that name.