Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[gakakkad]

2 MSM papers praising russ Electronic warfare means that russkies are even better at it..i wonder of the scale of destruction of UKR armed forces will ever be in public domain...

[Rakesh]

2 MSM papers praising russ Electronic warfare means that russkies are even better at it..i wonder of the scale of destruction of UKR armed forces will ever be in public domain...

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7888&start=2960#p2586435

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7888&start=2960#p2586436

[IndraD]

Russia has dug 800 kms of strong defensive lines to hold off Ukraine's much hyped counter offensive (will start on 30 April as per Kiev Independent), details!

https://english.elpais.com/internationa ... nsive.html

[mody]

The one thing that is surprising is that why the Russian havn't been able to intercept the UAF supply lines effectively. All the western weapons to UAF are supplied through the land borders of Poland and Romania.
Large equipments like HIMARS, tanks, Bradleys etc need trucks and can easily be picked up by satellites. Also, the large number of arty shells. Upto now, NATO must have supplied close to a million arty shells to UAF. This would require large convoy of trucks to supply the ammunition to the front lines.
NATO has supplied enough air defense missiles, at least for western Ukraine to not allow Russian aircrafts to hot targets there.
The new reports received today states that Patriot batteries has also been supplied by Germany and US will follow suite with its own deliveries. Most likely these have been place from much earlier.

However, all of this equipment and ammunition, also has to be transported to the frontlines. not to mention the trucks required to transport tens of thousands of UAF troops to the front lines and also move them around. Russia has round the clock surveillance of the entire Ukrainian airspace and also would be watching all the roads and large scale vehicle movement.
However, there have not been too many reports of Russia being able to interdict the UAF supplies, much before they reach the front lines.
If a whole lot of the western equipment was being destroyed, before it made any impact on the battle field, then NATO would start having doubts about sending more arms into Ukraine.
The situation should be such that Russia should have been able to destroy the western weapons systems and supplies and disrupt the UAF supply lines, at a rate much faster then what NATO can supply or replenish. Not just NATO supplies, but even the rations and ammunition for the troops fighting at the front line. Assuming more than 1 Lakh UAF troops deployed across the entire front line, it would take a significant effort and vehicles to keep the entire force supplied and fighting fit.

Yet this seems to be missing.

[vimal]

Russia has dug 800 kms of strong defensive lines to hold off Ukraine's much hyped counter offensive (will start on 30 April as per Kiev Independent), details!

https://english.elpais.com/internationa ... nsive.html

Is this for real? They publish their war plans on the Internet before execution?

[Avid]

The one thing that is surprising is that why the Russian havn't been able to intercept the UAF supply lines effectively. All the western weapons to UAF are supplied through the land borders of Poland and Romania.
Large equipments like HIMARS, tanks, Bradleys etc need trucks and can easily be picked up by satellites. Also, the large number of arty shells. Upto now, NATO must have supplied close to a million arty shells to UAF. This would require large convoy of trucks to supply the ammunition to the front lines.
....

The distance to these border points from Russian air bases and from Sea... at the minimum 500 miles (800 km).

Russia is certainly monitoring by Satellites -- but how do you propose these be attacked?
1. Aircraft? Cruise missiles? -- time from detection to interdiction = 1 to 2 hours; crossing territory that is littered with air-defense systems; and the resulting cost of interdiction for 1 truck or few trucks far exceeds the materials being supplied. Plus bear in mind these are mobile targets.

2. Alternatively, wait for all these equipment to either come to field or go to an ordinance depot where it is closer to action and is not mobile. Let them collect and when there's sufficient ammo of value stored -- blow it up. That is what Russia is doing.

The only remaining option is launching attacks from Belarus -- but that will make Belarus a party to the conflict. Clearly, for multitude of reasons -- Russians see value in keeping Belarus out of the conflict and using it for ISR purposes.

What better workable solution would you propose? Work it out with the $$ and opportunity cost of expending assets -- would love to hear it.

[IndraD]

Ukraine will win by the end of the year and return Crimea,ex-commander of US troops in Europe Ben Hodges.
The counter-offensive will begin in a few weeks and will be aimed at isolating Crimea.The Armed Forces of Ukraine will strike at Sevastopol and other targets on the peninsula https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status ... 39363?s=20

[Avid]

Ukraine will win by the end of the year and return Crimea,ex-commander of US troops in Europe Ben Hodges.
The counter-offensive will begin in a few weeks and will be aimed at isolating Crimea.The Armed Forces of Ukraine will strike at Sevastopol and other targets on the peninsula https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status ... 39363?s=20

He said that on April 20 (4-20).
From both Indian and American interpretation of 4-20: this needs to be discounted heavily

[IndraD]

https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/stat ... 96768?s=20

a thread showing how ukrops are using trenches effectively in what is left of bakhmut , and heavy use of artillery by Ru

[ks_sachin]

https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/stat ... 96768?s=20

a thread showing how ukrops are using trenches effectively in what is left of bakhmut , and heavy use of artillery by Ru

You mean despite heavy usage of Arty by Russia?

[ks_sachin]

Hell I wish Akshay Kapoor sir was here. He may have been able to shed light on appropriate tactics here.

[IndraD]

as per this reportr Violent criminals who served with the notorious Russian militia in Ukraine are terrorising the communities they return to
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... home-towns

[YashG]

As per what I read in news reports - tanks delivered till now
Poland 10
Germany 18
UK 14

New - Spain 10 leopard

total new tanks: 52

[Pratyush]

as per this reportr Violent criminals who served with the notorious Russian militia in Ukraine are terrorising the communities they return to
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... home-towns

Oh yes, the conflict is not yet over. Ukraine's promised offensive can come at any time. But violent criminals have left the front after being pardoned and are terrorising home communities.

Are the Russians stupid that such people will be allowed to leave front?

[YashG]

It is likely that Ukraine has been supplied larger number of tanks sufficient for their offensive (sufficiency via wargaming). All the facade of supply shortages is perhaps being deliberately seeded in order to make russians believe that offensive is not coming immediately. Surprise is the only thing ukrainians have on their side.

Of what i assume, they want to sow panic and chaos in russian ranks and make swift ingress - that is the only way they achieve something in this offensive. If Russian line holds and holds well - nothing for them. So they will go to extraordinary lengths to achieve surprise.

[IndraD]

Emergency Alarms tested at 3.00 pm for possible nuclear conflict in UK
https://news.sky.com/story/emergency-al ... w-12862605

[ks_sachin]

It is likely that Ukraine has been supplied larger number of tanks sufficient for their offensive (sufficiency via wargaming). All the facade of supply shortages is perhaps being deliberately seeded in order to make russians believe that offensive is not coming immediately. Surprise is the only thing ukrainians have on their side.

Of what i assume, they want to sow panic and chaos in russian ranks and make swift ingress - that is the only way they achieve something in this offensive. If Russian line holds and holds well - nothing for them. So they will go to extraordinary lengths to achieve surprise.

Sir,

What is a large no of tanks?

Tanks in themselves are not the only thing required for offensive ops. They need to be supported by infantry to protect the flanks appropriately and to hold on to the logistics lines.

Does Ukr have this in numbers?

If the Russians are surprised at any UKR activity after this rather long buildup then perhaps they had no business being in UKR in the first place!!

[dnivas]

Wagner head proclaims no more taking Ukr prisoners in Bakhmut area after Ukr killed surrendered and wounded Wagner PMC soldier.
Law of 300's .
Like someone mentioned above, more glide bombs are coming into play. going to be hell for Ukr

[Tanaji]

What is more interesting is the logistical trail for this mish mash of tanks. It is not easy to create a support tail for a MBT let alone 3 separate ones. Especially for the Abrams that has a detuned jet engine for a power pack that guzzles fuel like Yeltsin on a weekend. To add to the challenges, none of the tanks being given are top of the line: they are all used and older versions. While parts are available, they are more prone to breakage especially in a theatre that guzzles up equipment.

[ks_sachin]

Tanaji,

If the West is arming the UKR forces, they would have thought this through to an extent, is it not?

[Pratyush]

The 120 mm guns use common ammunition. The GT of Abrams is multi fuel.

All tank have common machine gun that fire common 7.62 rounds. The 12.7 can be swapped out or added in the field as the case may be.

A tank serviced before getting in the field can be expected to last at minimum of 500 to 600 kms to possibly upto 1000 kms. Before suffering any breakdown.

So logistics is not really going to be that big of an issue.

What I am curious to know is, if they have been fitted with any APS.

Because, if they have not been fitted with APS. Then the Russian infantry Anti tank teams will make minced meat of these tanks. When they reach the frontline.

[Aditya_V]

Any news about the Ukrainian Bridgehead across the Dnieper, has it been successful?

[YashG]

It is likely that Ukraine has been supplied larger number of tanks sufficient for their offensive (sufficiency via wargaming). All the facade of supply shortages is perhaps being deliberately seeded in order to make russians believe that offensive is not coming immediately. Surprise is the only thing ukrainians have on their side.

Of what i assume, they want to sow panic and chaos in russian ranks and make swift ingress - that is the only way they achieve something in this offensive. If Russian line holds and holds well - nothing for them. So they will go to extraordinary lengths to achieve surprise.

Sir,

What is a large no of tanks?

Tanks in themselves are not the only thing required for offensive ops. They need to be supported by infantry to protect the flanks appropriately and to hold on to the logistics lines.

Does Ukr have this in numbers?

If the Russians are surprised at any UKR activity after this rather long buildup then perhaps they had no business being in UKR in the first place!!

I said "larger". As I have been keeping a count of reported tank supplies - which was 52 at last count- I meant "larger" than reported numbers here.

[Tanaji]

Tanaji,

If the West is arming the UKR forces, they would have thought this through to an extent, is it not?

Obviously… but that does not make it easier does it? They still have to cater for 3x the chain than a single tank. Add to that:
Ukranian crews - fight and maintenance ones will have less than ideal amount of training
The tanks are used and of an older tranche

We already know from the artillery usage that both sides expend huge amounts of ammo - probably the same for tanks but not to that extent. With less amount of tanks, existing tanks will be used up more so more usage of items such as lubricants, oil, gaskets…

[Pratyush]

Why is it expected that western tanks logistics requirements is going to be high.

It's not like the track will break every 10 kms.

Or the Air and Oil filters have to be replaced every 100 kms.

Or that the engine fan belts have to be swapped out every 250 kms.

WRT fuel requirements, the Ukrainians have, over the last one year purchased every single fuel tanker they could lay their hands on. So much so, that the Europeans were facing a shortage of fuel tankers.

So the ability to move fuel to the front line is also not good to an issue. At least no more than moving fuel for the USSR origin tanks.

All in all if the Ukrainian army get's it's act together. Then they can use these tanks quite effectively.

I am more concerned about the APS availability for the western tanks.

If they don't have that equipment. Then the Russian infantry will extract a frightening toll on the western armour.

The RPG 26, 27, 28, 29 are formidable weapons. Then can penetrate any western tanks from the sides. And leopard A4 from the front.

Kornet and Konkurs can penetrate any western tank from the front. Leave aside the Vikhir and Ataka. Launched both from tracked tank destroyer and the rotory winged platforms.

I am not even thinking about Russian armour being deployed to counter the western armour.

[bala]

3rd Ukr army with limited experience in warfare.. Poland trying to jump in.. Retired Nato people, Retired Divers to blow up the gas pipeline.. And more from Gonzalo Lira.

[ks_sachin]

Tanaji,

If the West is arming the UKR forces, they would have thought this through to an extent, is it not?

Obviously… but that does not make it easier does it? They still have to cater for 3x the chain than a single tank. Add to that:
Ukranian crews - fight and maintenance ones will have less than ideal amount of training
The tanks are used and of an older tranche

We already know from the artillery usage that both sides expend huge amounts of ammo - probably the same for tanks but not to that extent. With less amount of tanks, existing tanks will be used up more so more usage of items such as lubricants, oil, gaskets…

Tanaji what I am saying is that they would be prepared to some extent for this.
Lets face it the Ukranians have not come across as completely inept - plus NATO and the US is helping them.

If the tanks would cause such an issue then I am not sure these would be supplied so readily considering the optics of stranded/blown up Western tanks strewn across the battlefield will be a force multiplier for Russia.

[YashG]

NATO has done enough wargaming and statistical analysis to know what force levels might achieve what with some degree of likelihood. Which means West & Ukraine are not heading into this blind. Russia can only throw away this estimation by jacking up its own force levels beyond what west has wargamed.

[ramana]

Australia cancels self propelled artillery systems in favor of HIMARS due to lack of range and lethality.

https://www.army-technology.com/news/au ... uy-himars/

[Pratyush]

Based on what I am hearing from the dissenting voices in the western indipendent media space.

I am beginning to think that the publicized news of shortages of 155 mm and other equipment in NATO. Along with the consequent inability to supply Ukraine is an elaborate information operation to lull the Russians into a false sense of confidence.

Because, if the news was correct. Then the leadership of western states would have been scrambling to get a peace agreement with the Russians.

Terms obtained today would be better than terms obtained after a total Ukrainian collapse.

But we are still hearing about Ukrainian spring offensive. Along with the inability of Ukraine to carry out that offensive due to a lack of supplies from the west.

But we are not seeing any desire to seek peace in Ukraine.

[ramana]

Please read Russian view about Bakhumat

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... LLPCA&s=19

[ks_sachin]

Is Bakhmut going to be Russia’s Stalingrad?

[ks_sachin]

Australia cancels self propelled artillery systems in favor of HIMARS due to lack of range and lethality.

https://www.army-technology.com/news/au ... uy-himars/

Nothing to do with conflict.

AU has done a defence review and reasoned no need plus they need to pay for subs

[Pratyush]

Please read Russian view about Bakhumat

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... LLPCA&s=19

This is the Ukrainian view. The Russian view is not really that well known. Unless the objective is to destroy best Ukrainian units in the field.

[Pratyush]

Is Bakhmut going to be Russia’s Stalingrad?

Only if, the Russians loose an entire force to the Ukrainians.

[Aditya_V]

If you look at the German Soviet Conflict 1941-44, or even 1940 German operation, the weather is conducive to warfare mainly from 10 May- 30 Sep, it rains the least with very little cloudy days.

The Russians had a big disadvantage as they expected the Ukrainians to negotiate after showing they were serious. I suspect one way or the other both sides will have a go by the end of September we will which side is winning the war.

Both sides will try and hide their losses and weaknesses. Trying to negotiate is an invitation to attack, no side will try and negotiate unless things are totally lost on the battlefield and it is evident to the General public at large.

[IndraD]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/us/p ... nsive.html
Ukraine’s Spring Offensive Comes With Immense Stakes for Future of the War

WASHINGTON — Ukraine is preparing to launch a counteroffensive against Russian forces as early as next month, American officials say, in the face of immense risks: Without a decisive victory, Western support for Ukraine could weaken, and Kyiv could come under increasing pressure to enter serious negotiations to end or freeze the conflict.

American and NATO allies have supplied Ukraine with extensive artillery and ammunition for the upcoming battle, and officials now say they are hopeful the supplies will last — a change from two months ago when weapons were only trickling in and U.S. officials were worried that the supplies might run out.

At the same time, 12 Ukrainian combat brigades of about 4,000 soldiers each are expected to be ready at the end of April, according to leaked Pentagon documents that offer a hint of Kyiv’s timetable. The United States and NATO allies are training and supplying nine of those brigades, the documents said.

Although Ukraine shares few details of its operational plan with American officials, the operation is likely to unfold in the country’s south, including along Ukraine’s coastline on the Sea of Azov, near the Russian-annexed Crimea.


“Everything hinges on this counteroffensive,” said Alexander Vershbow, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia and senior NATO official. “Everybody’s hopeful, maybe over-optimistic. But it will determine whether there is going to be a decent outcome for the Ukrainians, in terms of recovering territory on the battlefield and creating much more significant leverage to get some kind of negotiated settlement.”

While Ukrainian officials have said their goal is to break through dug-in Russian defenses and create a widespread collapse in Russia’s army, American officials have assessed that it is unlikely the offensive will result in a dramatic shift in momentum in Ukraine’s favor.

Twelve Ukrainian combat brigades of about 4,000 soldiers each are expected to be ready at the end of April, according to leaked Pentagon documents.Credit...Mauricio Lima for The New York Times

Ukraine’s military faces many challenges — one reason that a stalemate remains the most likely outcome. Fighting in Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine this winter has drained ammunition reserves and led to heavy casualties in some experienced units.

And yet American military officials say it is possible that Ukraine’s army could once again surprise them. They are now armed with European tanks and American armored personnel carriers and have new units trained and equipped by Americans and NATO forces.

“I’m optimistic that between this year and next year, I think Ukraine will continue to have the momentum with it,” Britain’s defense secretary, Ben Wallace, told reporters during a visit to Washington last week. “I also think we should be realistic. There is not going to be a single magic-wand moment when Russia collapses.”

The State of the War
Spring Offensive: Ukraine is preparing to launch a counteroffensive against Russian forces in the face of immense risks: Without a decisive victory, Western support for Ukraine could weaken, and Kyiv could come under increasing pressure to enter serious peace talks to end or freeze the conflict.
In the South: Russian troops are forcibly relocating people from occupied areas near the city of Kherson as fighting there intensifies, Ukrainian officials said.
Although Ukraine has deviated from the usual secrecy surrounding military plans by talking openly about the coming battle — in part because Ukrainian leaders need to drum up morale and pressure the West for weapons — U.S. officials expect Ukraine’s army will use deception and feints to throw the Russians off balance.

Ukrainian officials have said privately that they hope a push will break through dug-in Russian defenses and trigger a widespread collapse in Russia’s army.Credit...Associated Press

Ukraine’s best chance of making a dramatic show in the counteroffensive will also depend on American, NATO and Ukrainian intelligence. If the United States and its allies can identify significant weaknesses in Russian defenses, Ukraine can exploit them with the speed and protection of tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles.

Still, big gains are not guaranteed, or even necessarily likely. The battlefield is heavily mined by the Russians, and the Ukrainian advance will depend on whether Kyiv’s forces can effectively deploy mine-clearing equipment, much of which the West has provided.

Ukraine built the new combat brigades by pairing raw recruits with a small core of experienced veteran soldiers. Beginning in January, the units went to American training grounds in Germany to learn how to use their new equipment and how to conduct what the American army calls combined arms maneuvers — using effective communication to coordinate advancing troops with supporting units such as tanks and artillery.

Training on those tactics has gone well, according to multiple U.S. officials, and a motivated Ukrainian force has shown itself to be a quick study. But employing new tactics is often easier in training exercises than it is on the battlefield, especially with the Russians so dug in.

Soldiers fighting in Ukraine have said that, so far, sophisticated maneuver warfare has been all but impossible to execute. They have struggled to coordinate their operations because they require strong communications, which is difficult because radio equipment differs unit to unit and is susceptible to Russian jamming. One soldier in Ukraine who participated in a recent failed attack in southern Ukraine said that coordinating anything above the platoon level — a unit of about 30 soldiers — remains extremely difficult.

If the Ukrainians succeed in using these new tactics, even to a small degree, they may be able to overcome the numerically superior Russian forces.


“If they can break through, then I think they can change the dynamic on the battlefield,” Adm. Christopher W. Grady, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in a brief interview.

Major questions about Ukraine’s artillery and other ammunition supplies remain. Kyiv’s supplies of air defense missiles and artillery rounds, critical to sustaining any push and to defend against Russian air attacks, could run dangerously low if its forces continue to expend ammunition at their current pace. After the offensive is over, there is little chance that the West can recreate the buildup that it did for Ukraine’s coming assault for the foreseeable future, because Western allies do not have enough supplies in existing inventories to draw from and domestic production will not be able to fill the gap until next year, experts say.

The Ukrainian military has been firing thousands of artillery shells a day as it tries to hold Bakhmut, a pace that American and European officials say is unsustainable and could jeopardize the coming offensive. The bombardment has been so intense that the Pentagon has raised concerns with officials in Kyiv, warning them that Ukraine was wasting ammunition at a key time.

While Ukrainian forces can use drones to strike behind Russian front lines, they have not been given missiles with a long-enough range to hit Russia’s logistical hubs, a tactic that proved important in last summer’s offensives outside Kharkiv and Kherson.

The Russians have challenges of their own.

Since the beginning of the invasion, there have been major doubts about the basic competence of Russian commanders and their supply of well-trained soldiers, artillery shells and equipment. The Russians have expended many of their cruise missiles, lost thousands of people in Bakhmut alone and drained their stores of ammunition much faster than they can replace them with their domestic production.



But Russia is working to address those gaps. Russian troops have honed their ability to use drones and artillery to target Ukrainian forces more effectively. They have recently started using glide bombs — which use gravity and basic guidance devices to reach their targets without making any noise — to show they are still capable of deploying newer weapons on the battlefield. The efforts mean the window to make significant gains against Russia’s depleted forces may not remain open indefinitely.

In private meetings, Sergei K. Shoigu, the Russian defense minister, has told other officials that he believes Russia has the numerical advantage on the battlefield because it has more planes, tanks, artillery pieces and soldiers than the Ukrainians, according to a senior European official aware of the discussions. In these conversations, Mr. Shoigu came across as supremely confident that Russia will eventually prevail.


American intelligence officials have repeatedly warned that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia thinks that time is on his side. Given Russia’s bigger reserves of equipment and manpower, the officials say Mr. Putin believes he will ultimately emerge victorious as the West’s appetite to support Ukraine subsides.

U.S. and European officials say Russia is preparing new rounds of mobilizations to bolster the ranks of its military without creating the same exodus of young men from the country, which occurred last year when a partial mobilization was announced. Some of the leaked Pentagon documents also outline how Wagner, Russia’s biggest military contractor, had restarted recruiting troops from Russia’s prisons.

American officials say that Mr. Putin faces a political cost for any mobilization, and even if he is willing to bear those costs, it will take Russia time to conscript those forces, train them and send them to the fight. Forces that were rushed to the front, like Wagner’s prison recruits, quickly became cannon fodder.

Still, Russia’s capacity — and willingness — to absorb losses remains large, allowing it to mobilize more conscripts. But some analysts have raised doubts that Moscow has enough soldiers to fill the trenches they have built across their front lines.

A key focus of the United States and the West has been trying to stop Russia from finding new supplies of weaponry. U.S. and NATO officials have hindered Russia’s domestic manufacturing with sanctions and export controls, and put diplomatic pressure on countries to reject Russian requests for arms.

President Biden traveled to Kyiv and met with President Volodymyr Zelensky in February. American officials have been working to influence the flow of arms to both Ukraine and Russia.Credit...Daniel Berehulak/The New York Times

China appears to have been deterred, at least for the moment, from providing ammunition or other lethal aid to Russia. U.S. officials publicized intelligence about Beijing’s private discussions with Moscow, and they have not seen any evidence since that China is sending arms. Similarly, Russian efforts to acquire guided missiles from Iran have not borne fruit so far.


Another apparent success has been Egypt. While U.S. officials were quietly pressing Cairo to supply artillery shells to Ukraine, U.S. intelligence agencies gathered information, first reported by The Washington Post, that Egyptian officials might also supply weaponry to Russia.

After a diplomatic push by the United States and Britain, the Egyptians appeared to side with the Americans. According to a subsequent intelligence report, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt rejected the idea of Cairo supplying the Russian side.

U.S. officials said a production contract has been agreed with Egyptian state-owned arms makers to produce artillery shells for the United States and American contractors, who, in turn, will send them to Ukraine.

Some European countries, including France, are pushing for negotiations. For now, Mr. Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, are dug in, and peace talks appear to be nowhere in sight.

For the Ukrainians to force a real negotiation, they must make sure “Vladimir Putin’s hubris, his arrogance, is punctured,” William J. Burns, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, said at a speech at Rice University earlier this month.

The Ukrainians have said they would not agree to any peace talks until they push back the Russians and gain more territory.


A successful counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces could make it easier for the Biden administration to make the case for continued support.Credit...Daniel Berehulak/The New York Times

The chances that Mr. Putin will back down or cut his losses in response to a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive, the senior European official said, were “less than zero.” Instead, the official said, Mr. Putin will likely opt to call up more soldiers and send them in.

Celeste A. Wallander, the U.S. assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, said there is no sign that Mr. Putin is ready for a compromise. “There is very little evidence and little reason to believe that Putin will give up on his strategic goal of subjugating Ukraine politically, if not fully militarily,” she said in an interview. “It’s been his goal, not just for a year, but it’s been going on for nearly a decade. So there’s no sign he’s giving up on that.”

[IndraD]

have seen similar articles in politico wapo etc which means a lot is riding on so called ukr counter offensive

[YashG]

Based on what I am hearing from the dissenting voices in the western indipendent media space.

I am beginning to think that the publicized news of shortages of 155 mm and other equipment in NATO. Along with the consequent inability to supply Ukraine is an elaborate information operation to lull the Russians into a false sense of confidence.

I hv myself been wondering the same. But if this was so then we are assuming that russia is basing its own moves based on media news - which #1 sounds naive and is unlikely to change russian calculations but #2 if true then speaks very low of russian Intelligence & general acumen.

If #2 then Russia cant complain. They asked for it.

[YashG]

Is Bakhmut going to be Russia’s Stalingrad?

While I understand the temptation of a comparison but here is the counter-narrative.

When Hitler focused on Stalingrad, he pulled back his forces that were attacking two oil towns that were relatively under-defended and would have provided hitler the oil he needed. Hitler's forces were about to get those towns when he suddenly asked them to focus on Stalingrad. So stalingrad was an ego target (had stalin's name in it) while hitler had a more strategic target elsewhere that he was about to annex. He made a diversion from a strategic target towards an ego target.

While attacking Bakhmut, russia has no other more strategic target that they are sacrificing in order to attack Bakhmut. So there is no diversion based on ego and any opportunity cost lost.

And compared to Stalingrad, Bakhmut IS actually very useful !