Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 08 May 2023 03:47

KA
Completed our pre poll surveys formally today!
Sample size covered 68054,
This is our conclusive prediction:
BJP: 119 to 123
INC: 77 to 82
JDS: 20 to 24
Others 2 to 5
Waiting for May 13 now!
https://twitter.com/janakrishna001/stat ... 79745?s=20

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 08 May 2023 06:33

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 08 May 2023 07:00

IndraD wrote:KA
Completed our pre poll surveys formally today!
Sample size covered 68054,
This is our conclusive prediction:
BJP: 119 to 123
INC: 77 to 82
JDS: 20 to 24
Others 2 to 5
Waiting for May 13 now!
https://twitter.com/janakrishna001/stat ... 79745?s=20

One thinks that the BJP's induction of a largish number of new entrants and the dropping of non performers, iffy candidates, and also, the forced retirement of their "past sell by date" herd of old war horses may payoff politically.

The "same old, same old" ecosystem has outlived its usefulness.

The BJP workers are reportedly enthused with the new changes

If it works, then some other parties may also follow suit

It is only in India where a gora चमड़ी reigned undisputed as a political plenipotentiary over the land's largest political party, without following any democratic process, and by using BIF subterfuges like the unelected and unrepresentative NAC, to ride roughshod over the body politic

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 08 May 2023 10:42

Congress is betting on 3 things

1) Anti-incumbency
2) Hinduphobia to marshal the Muslims
3) Outright secession

Bar waitress yesterday sent out a statement that Congress will protect the sovereignty of Karnataka!

If Congress can't rule the country, they don't want the country to exist

The enemy has clarity. Hope Karnataka Hindus do too - they should overlook #1 and focus on the dangers of #2 & #3.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 08 May 2023 13:59

^^ Congress has always been a gang of anti-national Hindu mercenaries and opportunists since before Independence. They were the main group of Indians fighting against nationalists on behalf of colonials. They are in the game only for power and money -- they are like a boyfriend who would rather throw acid on a girl friend's face, than allow her to marry someone else.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 08 May 2023 14:24

sanjayc wrote:^^ Congress has always been a gang of anti-national Hindu mercenaries and opportunists since before Independence. They were the main group of Indians fighting against nationalists on behalf of colonials. They are in the game only for power and money -- they are like a boyfriend who would rather throw acid on a girl friend's face, than allow her to marry someone else.

mafia maami has given Modi more than enough potent ammo for use even beyond 2024

takes a very special spidey sense to combine a damaging mix sovereignty and Bajrang Bali

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 08 May 2023 14:32

I want to post a video forwaded to me.
Really hilarious about semi-scientific method of forecasting futures and election results

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 08 May 2023 15:21

Rsatchi wrote:I want to post a video forwaded to me.
Really hilarious about semi-scientific method of forecasting futures and election results

You can upload to twitter and provide the link

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 09 May 2023 01:24

ಅಂಕಿತ್ ಗೌಡ | Ankith Gowda
@Ankith_speaks

Sad to see, BJP strengthening in Mandya District. 2018 elections there were no one for BJP to sit in booths, but today they have at least 10-20 people in each Booth.

#KarnatakaAssemblyElection2023

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 09 May 2023 02:38

KL Dubey wrote: Thread seems to have got disrupted by BS one-liners.

Sire jee, are you this humorless, stuckup, and pedantic IRL too?! Somehow I don't think so given you coined "Pakraine" and your understanding of Poorva mimamsa.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 09 May 2023 06:11

Looks like JDS and INC put candidates strategically to defeat BJP candidates. Fir example, JDS puts up their caste candidate in place where they have no chance to peel.off votes

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 May 2023 07:01

Folks compare the 2018 to 2023 elections in Karnataka.

2018 elections were different circumstances.
Yeddyurappa had just come back into BJP after moving out to form KJP.
there was no certainty that Modi 2.0 will happen in 2019.
Modiji was still getting the feel for governance with so many snakes and ladders in the govt placed strategically by the C-System.
There was no price for JDS to defect to Congress and form the govt.

In 2023 there is no doubt that Modiji has a firm grip on the sinews of governance: IT, ED, NIA, etc.
No doubt that he is coming back to power in 2024.
IOW there is an incentive for Devagowda the shrewdest politician in India that JDS has to be on the good side of NaMo and possibly even partner with NDA in the 2024 elections.
Moreover, Congress has committed gaffe after gaffe and is in meltdown. Except in Bengaluru urban* which is a cesspit of self-interested folks rest of the regions are all solidly voting for BJP.
Three months ago survey after survey was saying Congress will get 140+
Now even the most pro-Congress survey is not putting them over 90.
I am not saying Karnataka elections are a breeze for BJP. It's still a tough fight and it all depends on the turnout and what the voter thinks in the booth.
BTW survey shows 26% of Karnataka voters make up their minds on election day. Another 20% about two days before the election day. In contrast UP voters make up their minds a week before.
They want to see till the last minute what else they can extract from parties.

The same folks are at the forefront of saying they don't like corruption!!!
* I call Bengaluru urban as a cesspit for it still is the old Congress systems and institutions in place with a few JDS changes. And this is a holdover from British times. For Karnataka to prosper Bengaluru has to get rival urban areas and reduce its importance. Twenty years ago I wrote about how Hyderabad impacts Naidunomics. Now Bengalurus is 10x Hyderabad in moving pieces.

Paarkalam or let us see.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 May 2023 07:04

Prem Kumar wrote:Congress is betting on 3 things

1) Anti-incumbency
2) Hinduphobia to marshal the Muslims
3) Outright secession

Bar waitress yesterday sent out a statement that Congress will protect the sovereignty of Karnataka!

If Congress can't rule the country, they don't want the country to exist

The enemy has clarity. Hope Karnataka Hindus do too - they should overlook #1 and focus on the dangers of #2 & #3.

1) BJP changed 111 candidates of them 71 are fresh faces to deal with the anti-incumbency.
2) Congress's self-goal of banning Bajrang Dal has blown up in their faces and even fence-sitters are mobilizing.
3) BJP leadership has approached EC about Soniaji's secession remarks and this will be taken up further.
Not going to let a barmaid undo Indian unity.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 09 May 2023 20:04

In opinion polls what is as important as the voting intention is how it has changed from the previous period. We do not have that info.
What we have are 2 conflicting bits of data that explain 2 different results thrown up by surveys.

1. In Assembly 2018, BJP got 36.3% vote share and Cong 38.1 %
BJP got more seats (with narrower margins). Even a 1% swing against it can reduce seats from 104 to 80.
This is conventional logic, which the earlier polls were showing.

2. In Lok Sabha 2019, BJP got 51.4% and Cong 31.9% It was a clean sweep by BJP.
This was a huge improvement over 2018, which is the point the Swarajya video makes.
In all assembly elections across India, BJP's vote share is 4-9% lower than LS (8-9% when it is the incumbent party).
There was an 8% drop in BJP's share in UP 2022, even when BJP did not seem to have anti incumbency.
With a 9% drop, BJP gets 42% which is what the Swarajya survey predicts.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 10 May 2023 00:35

Deans wrote:What we have are 2 conflicting bits of data that explain 2 different results thrown up by surveys.

Good post. We can go even further back. Adding to your data on BJP/NDA vote share:

2008 VS: 34.9%
2009 LS: 41.6%

2013 VS: 29.8% (I am counting both BJP and Yeddi's KJP vote shares together)
2014 LS: 34.7%

2018 VS: 36.4%
2019 LS: 51.4%

Basically, the back-to-back years VS and LS vote shares rise together or fall together.

Given there is huge Modi support for 2024 LS, some of that will inevitably rub off on the VS election. KA voters have shown that they are willing to vote out big shots including Devagowda in his own backyard in 2019. Since then BJP has been making steady inroads in south KA (mysore area). I would not be surprised by a 40% vote share this time.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 May 2023 01:26

Factors are Modiji rallies and the Bajrang Dal ban plan can see an increase in vote share.
In 2018 the turnout was ~72% so could expect a little more.
JDS and Congress are fighting with backs to the wall. Especially the former.
Pollsters have the micro level voting data which we don't have.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 10 May 2023 10:21

Dr Praveen Patil of 5forty3 fame (twitter), is talking of a swing towards BJP in the last few days.
He has been more accurate in the past, than any of the pollsters.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 10 May 2023 10:26

KL Dubey wrote:
Deans wrote:What we have are 2 conflicting bits of data that explain 2 different results thrown up by surveys.
Good post. We can go even further back. Adding to your data on BJP/NDA vote share:

2008 VS: 34.9%
2009 LS: 41.6%

2013 VS: 29.8% (I am counting both BJP and Yeddi's KJP vote shares together)
2014 LS: 34.7%

2018 VS: 36.4%
2019 LS: 51.4%

Basically, the back-to-back years VS and LS vote shares rise together or fall together.
I would not be surprised by a 40% vote share this time.

Dubey ji, BJP LS 2014 vote share in Karnataka was 43% not 34%.
So there is a steady improvement in both VS and LS vote share (2013 does not count as Yeddi was not in BJP).

A 9 % drop from LS 2019 seems highly likely. It was 8% in UP and 10% in Gujarat.

rajkumar · Post by **rajkumar** » 10 May 2023 12:03

Paging Dilbu...

BJP will loose only

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 10 May 2023 12:09

BJP will lose onlee.

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 10 May 2023 19:30

Exit polls are predicting a hung assembly in KAR (with BJP & INC being neck-neck)...moi did my part this morning. The voting experience was not pleasant if not horrible...in the prior Lok Sabha election, they had 3 EVMs in the same room and thus higher foot rates could be achieved...last time I was in & out within 15-20 minutes...but this time, they had only one EVM and I had to wait 1.5 hours for my turn in spite of being at vote booth at around 7:15 AM (prolly the wait times were longer for folks who were turning up late)...honestly, I was tempted a couple of times to turn around & go back...the process was quite slow (add indiscipline by many people)...the voter turn out in BLR was just a shade above 50%.

In our area of BLR, being mainly upper middle class...there was regular campaigning but no doles...but in other parts of BLR, all parties were offering cash for votes (heard INC was offering the highest amount)...some people have collected money from all parties (heard family of 4 making up to 10K) and ultimately will vote to the party of their choice...

Anyways, if its a hung verdict, expect a lot of cross-party personal purchase to happen to form the Government...I have not much faith in any party at State/City level...recently, due to upcoming elections, many roads were resurfaced...a week of rains and potholes are already showing up in many of the resurfaced roads...the quality of surfacing & pot holes problems has not changed in the past 20 years...

greatde · Post by **greatde** » 10 May 2023 19:37

Most are predicting Congress as either SLP, or simple majority. So that was the expected outcome for many months, a bit like Rajasthan 2018. Strong anti-incumbency, internal rebellion, weak CM, just that the Modi factor helped to reduce the gap, but not enough to overcome.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 May 2023 19:47

Let us see.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 10 May 2023 20:18

Zynda wrote:Exit polls are predicting a hung assembly in KAR (with BJP & INC being neck-neck)...moi did my part this morning. The voting experience was not pleasant if not horrible...in the prior Lok Sabha election, they had 3 EVMs in the same room and thus higher foot rates could be achieved...last time I was in & out within 15-20 minutes...but this time, they had only one EVM and I had to wait 1.5 hours for my turn in spite of being at vote booth at around 7:15 AM (prolly the wait times were longer for folks who were turning up late)

self and wife (different rooms, same location) were in and out in less than three minutes...

Purposely went just after lunch time, as we always do, and it works like a charm every time.

krithivas · Post by **krithivas** » 10 May 2023 20:21

^ It is how the results it will be spun into as a national referendum for 2024.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 10 May 2023 20:24

It took me 20 mins, at 8 am. Faster for my aged parents who were asked to go to the head of the line as senior citizens. Fairly well organized.
In Shivajinagar, no non Muslim has won in the last 20 years, but BJP has not helped the situation by nominating an outsider - 10th fail farmer,
with a criminal record, in a upper middle class area. The AAP guy has good credentials - IIT/IIM and good corporate jobs and had enthusiastic
volunteers but the best he might do is eat into the anti BJP votes.

rrao · Post by **rrao** » 10 May 2023 20:44

Despite Mr.modi's blitzkrieg tour. . of karrnataka, the infighting in karnataka BJP is going to prove to be a negative factor for BJP The body language of common voter in ktakaka is not in favour of BJP. congress may win this time .corruption and misgovernance are other keyfactors.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 10 May 2023 20:57

BJP can only go this far to convince Hindus who to vote for and who works in their favor. It can't do much if Hindus are blind and determined to shoot themselves in the foot, like they did by choosing Gandhi and rejecting Savarkar. (The more rabid Gandhi turned against Hindus, the more the Hindus groveled on his feet.)

If Hindus think Congress is best party to rule them, then God help them. BJP can do little if Hindus are idiots. If they had brains, they would be stampeding to vote for BJP, considering how vile and Muslim-loving Congress is.

This behavior of groveling before one's oppressors and abusers is a symptom of a race devoid of even an iota of self-respect.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 10 May 2023 21:00

Unless BJP gets strong and charismatic leaders at state level like Yogi or Hemanta, and a team that delivers under them, it will not be able to win comfortably. Easy to blame voters, hard to look into one own party.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 10 May 2023 21:01

^^ Muslims would rather vote for a pig than BJP. Why can't Hindus? They seem to have very high standards of charisma and honesty for Hindu leaders, but grovel before Hindu-hating corrupt thugs of Congress and DMK and TDS. There is definitely a personality disorder with Hindus

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 10 May 2023 21:05

sanjayc wrote:BJP can only go this far to convince Hindus who to vote for and who works in their favor. It can't do much if Hindus are blind and determined to shoot themselves in the foot, like they did by choosing Gandhi and rejecting Savarkar. If Hindus think Congress is best party to rule them, then God help them. BJP can do little if Hindus are idiots. If they had brains, they would be stampeding to vote for BJP, considering how vile and Muslim-loving Congress is.

they have seized 375 (cash, gold, drugs, and silver)crores of revdi meant for distribution

This is apart from approx 80 crores of worth of booze (22,000 lts worth, per reports) and another close to 80 crores of pressure cookers, refrigerators, and washing & sewing machines and other appliances

this is the kind of revdi that is being given to the voters by the parties because they know that it can be recovered.

the two parties need to come to power in KAR if they are to put up a good fight in 2024.

The BJP should have been far more careful in watching their own, a a lot of them are recent imports and have come from outside.

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 10 May 2023 21:07

^^^ I dont think its Hindus voting for BJP
Operation Kamala and 40% destroyed the image.
There are no second string strong leaders
Instead of Bommai they should have gone with Eswarappa after Yeddy
SM Krishna was wasted after joining the party- did not organise the Vokkaligas
Plus they have gone with new players and removed the old entrenched non-performers demanding their tickets because of long term association.
DKS Siddu fight will escalate as the Rajasthan episode
Even if Congi's form a gobermint will not last more than 2 yrs
The big if in all this are the Gowdas
God knows what NaMo has promised DeveG the supremo for 2024.
HDK has openly admitted lack of funds.
they need access to an ATM machine and congis wont let them have that access
Lets wait for the 13th and if its 90+ BJP and 20+ JDS expect the unexpected!!

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 10 May 2023 21:13

Rsatchi wrote:^^^ I dont think its Hindus voting for BJP
Operation Kamala and 40% destroyed the image.
There are no second string strong leaders
Instead of Bommai they should have gone with Eswarappa after Yeddy
SM Krishna was wasted after joining the party- did not organise the Vokkaligas
Plus they have gone with new players and removed the old entrenched non-performers demanding their tickets because of long term association.
DKS Siddu fight will escalate as the Rajasthan episode
Even if Congi's form a gobermint will not last more than 2 yrs
The big if in all this are the Gowdas
God knows what NaMo has promised DeveG the supremo for 2024.
HDK has openly admitted lack of funds.
they need access to an ATM machine and congis wont let them have that access
Lets wait for the 13th and if its 90+ BJP and 20+ JDS expect the unexpected!!

that leader only joined to pre-empt imminent IT/ED/PMLA type of action of people close to him and he was definitely wasted. senility had gradually set in, more than a decade ago

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 10 May 2023 21:18

Muslims have been brainwashed gen after gen since 1400 years to remain constantly in an expansionist weaponised mode. Their unity is the result of a different set of factors. Hindu mindset is different, formed by much older civilisational thought process that endures to this day. The reality is, from one loyalty can be expected, while from the other it needs to be generated again and again. It may change some day... if you are OK to wait until that happens. But elections dont wait, so this "I expect Hindus to vote for me simply because I'm BJP" is a recipe for disaster. If BJP doesnt realise this and focus it efforts accordingly, the only thing they will be left with is to blame the voter.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 10 May 2023 21:33

Cyrano wrote:Unless BJP gets strong and charismatic leaders at state level like Yogi or Hemanta, and a team that delivers under them, it will not be able to win comfortably. Easy to blame voters, hard to look into one own party.

+1

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 10 May 2023 21:39

1. If BJP gets a single seat above 70 then the credit goes to Modi and Modi alone. The septuagenarian crisscrossed the state nonstop for over a month, holding rallies even in taluk level places, brought in the entire national leadership to give the party some fighting chance.
2. If BJP loses, and most likely they will then the blame goes to Karnataka BJP and RSS.

Understand that the state of KAR always runs on 2 Cs - Caste and Cash, everyone expects their "strongman" MLA to have a minimum net worth of Rs 100 Cr, but people also don't want to see their MLA accumulate that networth in 2 yrs, that's exactly what BJP MLAs did in 2008-2012 and again between 2019-2022. They don't understand power is more important than money, the later follows the former. No one likes to see a 30 something yr old first term MLA indulge in blatant, in-your-face corruption and amass over Rs 300Cr+ in one term and flaunt it.

The four factions of the party is well known and i won't delve any deeper into it but this will be a constant albatross around the party's neck.

Lastly, the RSS/BL Santhosh factor. Despite RSS's poor political acumen in the past, the central leadership decided to go with whatever RSS and the national secretary BL Santhosh recommended. They read the ground so poorly that after the first two lists of candidates were released, many old time karyakartas were found asking "who is this person?" who was nominated as their party's assembly candidate. Ignored the caste calculation, ignored sellable candidates with solid PR, ignored good incumbents and went with absolute nobodies in many constituencies.

Of all the problems the party faces, none is more severe than its inability to find good leaders at state level. This is true everywhere from MP (where the party will most likely lose in the next elections), RJ (no replacement yet for the lethargic Vasundara), KAR, DL, CG ( predict a comfortable win for Bhupesh Baghel), HR among other states. In more and more states now BJP seems to rely on INC making mistakes than BJP winning on their own merit, and Modi can only take them so far.

Two trends that i noticed in Karnataka last month that reminded me of 2014, but this time in favor of INC - forget about the caste and cash voters, but your upper middle class are vocal about supporting Congress, the corruption charges against BJP in the state has really stuck. Two, and this is the one which makes me very pessimistic about the future, people are willing to ignore past and present sins of Congress, they are willing to ignore all the infrastructure, covid work, ease of business initiatives, and an almost unprecedented (by Indian standards) stabilization of food and energy prices in a period of global turbulence by the BJP government at the center. I have never come across so many small and big businessmen, doctors, IT workers etc speak openly about voting for Congress, it is anti-incumbency, corruption and messaging failures all at play here.And no, hindutva does not even show up in the top 5 issues for your average hindu, so don't expect any noises if Congress keeps its promise and bans Bajrang Dal, infact you have many deracinated urban hindus who would support such a harebrained move.

disha · Post by **disha** » 10 May 2023 22:12

Zynda wrote:...many roads were resurfaced...a week of rains and potholes are already showing up in many of the resurfaced roads...the quality of surfacing & pot holes problems has not changed in the past 20 years...

The above sounds like Aus/US & Canada. Also if ppl think their city is worse off (pot holes/road surfacing) we have the mayor of Flint, Michigan or even the transport Secretary from US (Pete B.) that we can send to B'gluru. After that, there will be less complains (and more taxes).

Bengaluru is a microcosm by itself and with significant immigrant population. Neither it got around to develop its own sub-culture like other cities (Mumbai or Chennai). In that, it is more like New Delhi. That is, significant immigrant population, sharp divides and with deep pockets of old communities with vested interest.

Just like cash freebies entice the poor and lower middle class, what will entice the wannabe upper middle class (and the aspirational middle class) in B'gluru will be free paid trips to Goa with an evening in a "high quality" beer bar.

Aspirational MLAs from B'gluru should take up my suggestion. That is, distribute e-coupon IOUs for 3-day stay in a resort in Goa for two and a complimentary drink, with air ticket (Rs. 25k worth) if I am voted into power. If I am not voted in power, all the IOUs will be cancelled. This will be self-motivating. Also the local spend during the stay by the couple will more than make up for the money spent behind the e-coupons.

----

The exit poll is aggregated and in some cases grouped by community. I find it suspicious. Karnataka is a huge state. Take it back: It is a huuuuuuuge state with a very high diversity (yes, there are dominant groups, but they are 'local' dominant). Hence unless the exit polls samples take into account this wide swathes, all is extrapolation. And must be taken with at least a quintal of salt.

Also several of the exit polls is rushed out to later claim "EVM manipulation". So one has to be careful over there. The antecedents of the media company matters.

greatde · Post by **greatde** » 10 May 2023 22:15

In 2018, many seats with <5000 margin was won by BJP, which made the difference. So 1% swing can matter in a close election. Then, BJP struggles in urban city of Bengaluru, that region has been managed badly, together with just 50% turnout there and it's this region that potentially hurt BJP?

Next, the exit polls does not show any core BJP voters lose, so it's not about any corruption or anti-incumbency much. It's the floating voters (eg. Dalits) and are they getting attracted by freebies, immediate benefits? That should raise alarm bells for BJP. The country, and the people are growing in love for freebies especially after COVID. Thus, the 12000 Rahul Gandhi scheme didn't work in 2019, will be repacked, remodeled and BJP ought to well-prepared. Just because it failed in 2019, things could be seen differently in 2024...

disha · Post by **disha** » 10 May 2023 22:17

Just to note: Whatever be the results of Karnataka, even with 3/4th majority for BJP, it will be spun by national media as a failure of Mudi. Shampoo boy will go to town stating that they were spectacularly successful for not allowing BJP and by extension Mudi to win 100% majority. Same with the JDUs and other assortments.

Either way, both JDU and CONgoons are on decline. One is steep and other is steeper.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 May 2023 22:57

Cyrano wrote:Unless BJP gets strong and charismatic leaders at state level like Yogi or Hemanta, and a team that delivers under them, it will not be able to win comfortably. Easy to blame voters, hard to look into one own party.

Everyone wants a Yogi but he became CM only after results were declared.

Asking for a Yogi clone is like asking for Gilpam as in Mayabazar.
Bommai did not have media support. He gave a surplus budget for Karnataka.
A Congress survey showed corruption is 22% or 1 in 5 yet all elite talk as if they all (100%) personally paid bribes.
If so isn't it their fault to try to get ahead of the queue?
The problem is Benaglaursu has too many old-time Congress system holdouts.