Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

[Cyrano]

Incumbent loss needs more analysis and introspection than that. Particularly disappointing to see saffron lose its only foothold in the south to a left for dead party. Take nothing for granted in 2024

[Zynda]

It is good that BJP will lose...weak CM, increased corruption...new BJP folks need to work from ground up to prove their mettle for 2028...with INC in power in Karnataka, expect new infra to take a major hit...any projects which is being driven from centre will see obstacles...I don't see corruption coming down as KAR will be a huge source of income for INC...at least with Centre & State parties in sync, centre could put pressure on State to deliver on infra front. Oh well...let the fun begin. Anyways, I don't expect things to improve in BLR anyways regardless of which party is in power...

[Hriday]

JDS is flaming out and so will CONgoons. They are being reduced to local satrapies.

disha ji, can you explain your above statement. It is difficult for a common man outside Karnataka to understand this.

[arshyam]

Anyways, I don't expect things to improve in BLR anyways regardless of which party is in power...

This. BJP's administration hasn't exactly impressed when it comes to Karnataka'a showcase city. Forget impressed, it was no different than the previous one. Only good thing I'd say is the decent Covid handling and no nonsense over Kaveri. But lacklustre otherwise, no strong positive buzz over why one should vote BJP. If the rest of the state also feels that way, then the writing is on the wall.

But OTOH, we've also seen the highest turnout this election. Usually that works in the BJP's favour, because the higher turnout would be due to the middle class having stepped out to vote. So let's see.

[Zynda]

I recently heard on an interview about the turn around in Lucknow...at least a half Yogi ability person in Kar is the expectation...while we certainly appreciate the many positive developments & changes in the national front by BJP, many of us live & interact within our cities most of the time...expectations grow...like mentioned earlier, there are no visible or underlying changes about BLR (& BBMP functioning)...

[Aditya_V]

Looking at the Vote share, INC 43 %, BJP 36% and JDS 13%.

[chetak]

Anyways, I don't expect things to improve in BLR anyways regardless of which party is in power...

This. BJP's administration hasn't exactly impressed when it comes to Karnataka'a showcase city. Forget impressed, it was no different than the previous one. Only good thing I'd say is the decent Covid handling and no nonsense over Kaveri. But lacklustre otherwise, no strong positive buzz over why one should vote BJP. If the rest of the state also feels that way, then the writing is on the wall.

But OTOH, we've also seen the highest turnout this election. Usually that works in the BJP's favour, because the higher turnout would be due to the middle class having stepped out to vote. So let's see.

An unexpectedly high turnout in any election is usually a sigh of disapproval and it is because the voters are seeking a change

the guys in the slums who have been benefitted by the huge money that has reached them, and the free gas cylinders, rice, and what not, have carried the day

the stoopide middle classes will, as usual, end up paying for their own destruction and demise, because the money for the revdi will be extracted from them by the venal congis

[williams]

Looking at the Vote share, INC 43 %, BJP 36%, and JDS 13%.

Ok, that is a relief vote share has not changed the last election is also 36% Looks like votes moved from JDS to INC. Good jolt before 2024. BJP needs to fight it out now and not sit on old laurels.

[SRajesh]

^^ Also if you look at the number of seats no major swings
Party’s pretty much held on to their seats barrring single digit loss for both BJP and JDS

[Pratyush]

I am happy that JDS is a distant 3rd. The grand son of the humble farmer was saying that his father should be the CM. Happy that the state has a clear mandate.

INC has earned this mandate. I am interested to see if they can keep it.

[SRajesh]

Interesting thing would be if Congress final tally comes down to just about 100
Will BJP mount operation Kamala 2/3

[Zynda]

the guys in the slums who have been benefitted by the huge money that has reached them, and the free gas cylinders, rice, and what not, have carried the day

What is the source of these funds saar? Surely it can't all be from Soros kitty? I know INC will extract every rupee of what they have spent and things like Infra will take a hit. Karnataka on certain aspects of infra is lagging behind compared to other Southern states. Anyways, a huge thumping win for INC...kudos to Soros gang for pulling this off...personally I felt this time BJP did a lot more campaigning compared to INC...seems like BJP lost this election rather than INC winning.

[la.khan]

Interesting thing would be if Congress final tally comes down to just about 100
Will BJP mount operation Kamala 2/3

There is always room for this. I know I am a nobody but allow me to say this.

INC will form the government & will be riven with factionalism from day 1. Same old Siddu vs. Shivakumar. After a few months (may be 6/9/12/18/24/whatever months), dissident section of INC will break way, join BJP and form a BJP government. Haven't we seen this before? Did I miss anything?

[chetak]

the guys in the slums who have been benefitted by the huge money that has reached them, and the free gas cylinders, rice, and what not, have carried the day

What is the source of these funds saar? Surely it can't all be from Soros kitty? I know INC will extract every rupee of what they have spent and things like Infra will take a hit. Karnataka on certain aspects of infra is lagging behind compared to other Southern states. Anyways, a huge thumping win for INC...kudos to Soros gang for pulling this off...personally I felt this time BJP did a lot more campaigning compared to INC...seems like BJP lost this election rather than INC winning.

congi ruled states and moneybags in KAR.

Two of these moneybags have stood for these elections because of benevolent blessings from 10jp mafia

our maid says she and her family collected over 15K

[Cyrano]

INC coffers would be pretty much empty by now having spent what they did for these elections. Next 2 or 3 years will be free for all coffer filling. Not sure breakaways will happen so soon. Let's see..

[Manish_P]

On the plus side - RaGa will be pitched by CON as the PM face for 2024

[ritesh]

At least Dakshin Kannada dist is going saffron way. Some solace.

[SRajesh]

And I am sticking my neck out here
This is the Godhra moment for BJP
THE HESITANCY in taking steps towards CAA NRC UCC and waiting for judiciary approval or gora approval is going to cost 2024
Otherwise a rejuvenated opposition with BIF/Soros/Jihadi/Deep State combination will be too much

[Zynda]

Anyways, cringe comments like these will start flooding MSM & SM in the next few days/weeks...

"The message from Karnataka is that the 'end' of BJP's negative, communal, corrupt, rich-oriented, anti-women-youth, social-divisive, false propaganda, individualistic politics has begun," tweeted Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav.

"This is a strict mandate of new positive India against inflation, unemployment, corruption and animosity," he added.

[Cyrano]

Better grow a thick skin and keep your fight back rhetoric ready if you are in politics.

Saving grace - no one can malign ECI or EVMs now

[Cyrano]

After defeats in Uttarakhand and KA now, will BJP look to replace JP Nadda? I dont know much about him, have no opinion.

[chetak]

On the plus side - RaGa will be pitched by CON as the PM face for 2024

saar,

he will get no support from the others

[Manish_P]

On the plus side - RaGa will be pitched by CON as the PM face for 2024

saar,

he will get no support from the others

That's what I was hinting at, Chetak Ji.

[greatde]

Impeding genocide, and the now impeding doom, that's always been the opposition propaganda, so let's not fell into that trap and over-react. The issues isn't BJP core voters or core agenda (UCC, CAA), but the ability to attract the weakest part of societies. The uneducated, poor people.

This is tough battle, and I am honestly worried that 12000 basic income of Rahul Gandhi 2019, can actually resonate well with them in 2024.

[RajaRudra]

After defeats in Uttarakhand and KA now, will BJP look to replace JP Nadda? I dont know much about him, have no opinion.

JP Nadda (any leader ) - Replacing is not going to solve any issue. Its like applying wrong medicine to wrong problem.

State Government - Very poor performance.
Performing State Government with strong arm to twist the law breaking peacefulls is the solution.

PM campaigning could be a +3 % vote share.

[chetak]

Incumbent loss needs more analysis and introspection than that. Particularly disappointing to see saffron lose its only foothold in the south to a left for dead party. Take nothing for granted in 2024

this will also adversely affect their chances in TN

Annamalai has an uphill task on his hands

[ricky_v]

After defeats in Uttarakhand and KA now, will BJP look to replace JP Nadda? I dont know much about him, have no opinion.

couple of points:

1) bjp won uttarakhand in 2022



2) bjp lost in himachal pradesh (home state of jp nadda)



look at the difference in votes ~37k, so it was a close election

3) nadda was due to be replaced last year as per bjp's policy of a 3-year term for a working president, his term was extended till the end of the 24 elections (as many elections were looming, he will definitely step down after 24)

4) as the party has a collective leadership, the fall does not lie squarely on only 1 person, the decision to introduce 103 new candidates was pushed by bl santosh, the rss contact, the others, the parliamentary body comprising of modi, bsy, fadnavis etc. approved this proposal after due deliberation

5) the vote share of the bjp is intact, it is the implosion of the jds and the vote transfer to the inc as a result, the masterstroke was the bajrang dal issue, inc galvanised ml votes towards it and effectively cut out the jds

[ricky_v]

And I am sticking my neck out here
This is the Godhra moment for BJP
THE HESITANCY in taking steps towards CAA NRC UCC and waiting for judiciary approval or gora approval is going to cost 2024
Otherwise a rejuvenated opposition with BIF/Soros/Jihadi/Deep State combination will be too much

as far as i understand, the bjp is trying to implement all these acts on a state-by-state basis, it takes the heat away from the unending protests at the jantar mantar and empowers the states to form laws in accordance with local conditions but bound by the overarching philosophy of the union bills; assam, gj, uk are going for the ucc, assam for the nrc as well, we must look at more data before arriving at any further conclusions on these topics at least; ka bjp had also promised nrc and ucc implementation in their manifesto

[RajaRudra]

And I am sticking my neck out here
This is the Godhra moment for BJP
THE HESITANCY in taking steps towards CAA NRC UCC and waiting for judiciary approval or gora approval is going to cost 2024
Otherwise a rejuvenated opposition with BIF/Soros/Jihadi/Deep State combination will be too much

as far as i understand, the bjp is trying to implement all these acts on a state-by-state basis, it takes the heat away from the unending protests at the jantar mantar and empowers the states to form laws in accordance with local conditions but bound by the overarching philosophy of the union bills; assam, gj, uk are going for the ucc, assam for the nrc as well, we must look at more data before arriving at any further conclusions on these topics at least; ka bjp had also promised nrc and ucc implementation in their manifesto

Could be, But in politics perception matters. Even, if all the bad management by state government, if they managed good roads and leaders are reachable. The margin of lose would have been different.

[Sachin]

Only saving grace is that Jagadish Shettar who jumped ship from BJP to Congress has been trounced. He would now be like a curry leaf in Congress i.e use & throw.
Karnataka election results: Jagadish Shettar, who quit BJP to join Congress, trailing by over 35,000 votes

[chetak]

as far as i understand, the bjp is trying to implement all these acts on a state-by-state basis, it takes the heat away from the unending protests at the jantar mantar and empowers the states to form laws in accordance with local conditions but bound by the overarching philosophy of the union bills; assam, gj, uk are going for the ucc, assam for the nrc as well, we must look at more data before arriving at any further conclusions on these topics at least; ka bjp had also promised nrc and ucc implementation in their manifesto

Could be, But in politics perception matters. Even, if all the bad management by state government, if they managed good roads and leaders are reachable. The margin of lose would have been different.

If you are serious about fighting fire with fire then do not use a matchstick to counter the opposition who have come equipped with flame throwers

everyone knew that this was a very crucial election with repercussions extending well beyond 2024.

experimenting with the org structure at this late stage, and just before such a vital election, and that too in a critical state like KAR, was not only unwarranted but all together unwise.

strategy is always tailor made to suit the objective. You never change horses (or leaders) midstream

so what if some guy had crossed 100 or 200 years of age. Is winning the election vital or sticking to archaic principles more important...so what if his son was to be given a ticket..

Now you have not just the BIF opposing you, but also the people on the ground have turned against you

one leader had already shown that he could deliver and he did deliver. When he had left the party earlier, the party sank into oblivion, and he came back and revived it again. Why fiddle with such a leader, especially when you have no one of equal ability or caliber to replace him.

why not do all the stoopide changes after the election was already in the bag. A few raids against the party's own revdi pasand leaders would have worked wonders for the center's reputation and also made examples of the revdi wallas...

now there is a titanic sized hole ripped in the state party structure because of what the center did and many may leave in disgust, taking their votes with them.

There has been BIF money spent very lavishly during these elections, depending on the area and the need, and ground reports are that one party has spent between 2K+ to 4K+ per voter

[ricky_v]

If you are serious about fighting fire with fire then do not use a matchstick to counter the opposition who have come equipped with flame throwers

everyone knew that this was a very crucial election with repercussions extending well beyond 2024.

experimenting with the org structure at this late stage, and just before such a vital election, and that too in a critical state like KAR, was not only unwarranted but all together unwise.

chetak sir, the nature of the ka state elections is that it will always trigger exactly 1 year before the ge, so while a case could be made of delaying state org till an opportune time, the fact remains that the definition of such an opportune time is difficult to arrive at, if you tinker within the 5 year frame, you will have sulking mlas banding together cherishing the hospitality of one resort or another; the factuality of the mercenary nature of the existing legislators always needs to be considered while arriving at such decisions.

strategy is always tailor made to suit the objective. You never change horses (or leaders) midstream

so what if some guy had crossed 100 or 200 years of age. Is winning the election vital or sticking to archaic principles more important...so what if his son was to be given a ticket..

Now you have not just the BIF opposing you, but also the people on the ground have turned against you

what is the basic difference between the bjp and other parties? why do we (generic we) continue supporting them even there are indications that they can possibly eat dust in any given election?
it is this outlook of the party: one family, one ticket, in certain areas across the country, politicking is now approaching a professional overview, no dynasts, no modern day maharajas, only professional workers.

now, the bjp leaders in ka (majority), and i mean no disrespect to anybody, have been of a mercenary bent, their philosophical bearing simply a vehicle towards attaining power, not an individualistic overview, the bjp by introducing new candidates is pivoting towards a sangh influenced legislators, one who remain committed to the sangh cause even to the detriment of the personal gains; look at shettar, a third gen rss memeber, ex-cm, bjp mla numerous times, accommodated at the higher decision making bodies of the party, and he joined inc in the blink of an eye when denied a ticket, in other areas of the country, you can count on sabotaging the election, floating a new party, whatever, petulant joining of the sworn enemy is simply symbolic of the mercenary outlook which the sangh is straining to filter through.

one leader had already shown that he could deliver and he did deliver. When he had left the party earlier, the party sank into oblivion, and he came back and revived it again. Why fiddle with such a leader, especially when you have no one of equal ability or caliber to replace him.

why not do all the stoopide changes after the election was already in the bag. A few raids against the party's own revdi pasand leaders would have worked wonders for the center's reputation and also made examples of the revdi wallas...

now there is a titanic sized hole ripped in the state party structure because of what the center did and many may leave in disgust, taking their votes with them.

bsy threw open the doors in ka for the bjp, now it is upon the party to work on it in the manner that it has operated throughout other states, focus on building and maintaining the machinery, and not on individuals and their clout, for eg, even ya with all his clout in up is dependent on the party machinery to deliver results on a statewide basis, his "own" traditional base, the hindu yuva vahinin, is limited to eastern up

[V_Raman]

What this shows is that INC is a formidable force and likely will win many more elections in a 2-way contest.

Second, there is no option to good governance- NaMo can get only so many votes. people are clearly differentiating between state vs central elections.

[A_Gupta]

Compare the achievements of UP state govt and just-voted-out-of-power Karnataka state govt. I think the lesson is - don't perform, don't win, even PM Modi cannot save you.

[IndraD]

following takes
1. JDS crahsed its vote share into congress> result Delhi model repeated
2. Muslims voted for congress en block (98%)
3. there is nothing like Pasamda reach
4. Hindus are divided on caste lines (massively)
5. local caste leaders matter this is the sad reality of Indian politics
6. People had their basic needs sorted in first 10 yrs of BJP rule so they want revdi of freebies
7. when ever there are corrupt leaders on both sides (con vs BJP) people will drift to cong it is the default virus where as
BJP has to throw everything in every election
8. mudi sire popularity is there in road shows but doesn't translate into votes it is important he is not over exposed in next 1 yr
9. elephant in the house: demographics , what is actual % of KA muslims? looks like WB story is getting repeated
10. the money spent on lavish road shows should be used to buy votes, what about role of J P Nadda?

[Rony]

As soon as KA results started coming and Congress winning, TDP and TRS supporters in Telugu lands are celebrating.

[vimal]

One day spent in Bengaluru’s chaos and mismanagement will force me to vote out any incumbent.

[putnanja]

Since 1985, it has been difficult for incumbent govt to win reelection in KA. Also to be noted is that for the longest time, the central govt and state govt used to be different parties, and only last election it was the same.

Problem in KA is that there is no one person who can attract the masses. And the last few years of state BJP rule hasn't been stellar either. It was a given that BJP would face tough fight and that came true. Parliamentary elections is another matter. Modi has mass appeal and I don't think BJP will win less than 18 seats in parliamentary elections. The new govt also would be facing some incumbency at that time which will contribute to it.

[Sachin]

One day spent in Bengaluru’s chaos and mismanagement will force me to vote out any incumbent.

Then most likely you would have to vote out Congress in the next elections after five years . Because I am watching Bangalore right from the days when S.M Krishna - then with Congress - declared that he would make Bangalore a Singapore. And then he got a massive hanging bridge built over the railway tracks at KJM station, with no tangible benefits for any one.

Second, there is no option to good governance- NaMo can get only so many votes

Exactly. I also feel that the focus on maily Hindu issues - like Bajrang Dal ban etc also has limitations. Polarising the society may bring in some benefits, but that can never be the only tactic to be used. So looks like even with NaMo, the state BJP could not give him any other positive developments which he as a master orator can use. Bommai and Co just thought that NaMo and A.Shah would do all the heavy work and then just hand over the state to continue ruling.

[suryag]

It is quite clear the Demo will bring Congis to power sooner or later and the ruling BJP needs to understand they have to work extra hard on all aspects of governance(L&O, Corruption cases against the previous Govt, basic amenities, necessities etc) and of course strategic initiatives like soft Hindutva all across the year + managing the narrative. Give Modiji something to talk about, in this case there was nothing.

Looking ahead you need an Annamalai to put the Govt on the mat every week and force their hand who is that ? Pratap Simha ? Tejaswi ?CT Ravi? BSY sons ? You need to drag JDS heavyweights into the Bhajpa fold, good part is you kept your vote base intact now attract new sections from JDS and make use of the RSS org.

Now what will Congis try - they will go all out to consolidate M vote(tippu jayanthi, dappu jayanthi, reservations etc will be in full flow, more RSS workers will be killed), the freebies will come only in the last year, meanwhile corruption will be at peaks and this will be like a full toss for the opposition