Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

[Anujan]

Now Bhutto junior (pervez from the front and Parveen from the back) is giving interviews in the western press about how the west abandoned Afghanistan and how Pakistan has been left to deal with the fallout.

The interviewer did not even challenge the premise and let him go on ranting about how the west should do more for Pakistan.

Someone should ask him about the Quetta shura.

The reason why massa is squeezing nuts is because they want to screw with CPEC. they don't want IMF money and Paris club money to pay off Chinese debts while IMF and Paris club takes a haircut. China does not want to take a haircut so they are doing what banks with property debt do. It's called "extend and pretend". They are rolling over their debts and pretending that Pakistan can pay.

Ummah birathers have woken up and are demanding "if you want to take our money and pay Chinese debts when will we get repaid". Pakistan cannot pay. The only option is for them to default on Chinese debts.

[Anujan]

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2422647/pm ... e-imf-deal

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday reached out to a nearly dozen influential global capitals to sensitise them about Pakistan’s efforts to revive the $6.5 billion bailout package amid wide gaps between Islamabad and the International Monetary Fund over budget figures.

IMF is creating a nuclear flashpoint between IMF and Pakistan by destabilizing the balance of power payments in the South Asia.

[Dilbu]

As expected.
Govt to hand over seaports to UAE

ISLAMABAD: On Monday, Pakistan constituted a negotiation committee to finalise a deal with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for handing over its Karachi port terminals. This move may mark the first intergovernmental transaction under a law enacted last year to raise emergency funds.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar chaired the meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Inter-Governmental Commercial Transactions. The cabinet committee decided to set up a committee to negotiate a commercial agreement between the Karachi Port Trust (KPT) and the UAE government, according to the decision.

The negotiation committee has also been permitted to finalise a draft operation, maintenance, investment, and development agreement under the government-to-government arrangements with a nominated agency of the UAE for handing over the Karachi port terminals, as shown in the decision.

Pakistan aims to reach a deal to hand over the terminals to Abu Dhabi Ports (ADP), a subsidiary of the Abu Dhabi Ports Group. The UAE government had shown interest in acquiring the Karachi port terminals that were under the administrative control of the Pakistan International Containers Terminals (PICT) last year.

The PICT is a subsidiary of ICTSI Mauritius Limited, with its ultimate parent company being International Container Terminal Services Incorporated, a company incorporated in the Philippines.

Abu Dhabi Ports, part of AD Ports Group, owns or operates 10 ports and terminals in the UAE.

The PICT operated the Karachi terminals from June 2002 for a period of 21 years, which ended last Saturday. However, under the Concession Agreement, the PICT has the first right of refusal subject to certain conditions.

Sources suggest that the PICT may pose legal challenges based on the concession agreement. The company’s CEO was not available for comment.

Last year, the coalition government enacted the Intergovernmental Commercial Transactions Act, aimed at selling state assets on a fast-track basis to raise funds. The country is in dire need of additional money after its deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lapsed.

Initially, the UAE had refused to provide loans to Pakistan and urged it to sell stakes. However, it later committed $1 billion, which is still undisbursed.

Although the new law provides a fast-track channel to sell the assets, the government may need to engage “transaction advisors or consultants” for price discovery under section 4 (e) of the Commercial Act.

Sources indicate that the government needs to be extra careful when finalising a deal with the UAE, as it will be the first transaction of its kind, and the outgoing operator is also posing some challenges.

[Dilbu]

Pak Suzuki shuts car, bike plants for want of parts

KARACHI: Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd has announced to keep its motorcycle and four-wheeler plants closed from June 22 to July 8.

In a stock filing on Monday, the company said it was suspending production due to a shortage of parts and accessories owing to a mechanism introduced in May 2022 by the State Bank of Pakistan for taking prior approval for the import of completely knocked-down kits, which had adversely affected the clearance of consignments, thus affecting inventory levels.

Pak Suzuki kept its four-wheeler plant shut for over 75 days from August 2022 till June 19.

The company sold 2,958 vehicles in May 2023 compared to 1,474 units in April 2023. However, sales recorded a steep fall of 54pc to 62,354 units in 11MFY23 from 134,270 units in the same period last fiscal year.

[Vips]

Now Bhutto junior (pervez from the front and Parveen from the back) is giving interviews in the western press about how the west abandoned Afghanistan and how Pakistan has been left to deal with the fallout.

The interviewer did not even challenge the premise and let him go on ranting about how the west should do more for Pakistan.

Someone should ask him about the Quetta shura.

The reason why massa is squeezing nuts is because they want to screw with CPEC. they don't want IMF money and Paris club money to pay off Chinese debts while IMF and Paris club takes a haircut. China does not want to take a haircut so they are doing what banks with property debt do. It's called "extend and pretend". They are rolling over their debts and pretending that Pakistan can pay.

Ummah birathers have woken up and are demanding "if you want to take our money and pay Chinese debts when will we get repaid". Pakistan cannot pay. The only option is for them to default on Chinese debts.

Porkistan will not default. It has Balochistan and Sind to lease and sale to the Chinese.

[Dilbu]

Dollar crunch to force import suspension of eatables, drinks in Pakistan

KARACHI: Owing to the non-availability of dollars, commercial importers have announced to stop the import of all eatables and drinks from June 25, The News reported Monday. According to a statement issued by Karachi Wholesale Grocers Association Secretary Farhat Siddique, all banks have refused to provide them with dollars. After a thorough discussion, the association decided that importers should inform their indenters that no shipment should be dispatched after June 25. The importers are only responsible for the clearance of goods that have reached the port or are on the way. No shipment would be cleared that was dispatched after June 25. The association lamented that due to lack of foreign currency, thousands of containers are stuck at the port and they are paying fines and other charges on them.

Left with barely enough foreign exchange reserves to cover one month's imports, the coalition government is desperately trying to manage a balance of payments crisis and bring inflation under control after it hit a record of nearly 38% last month.

The dollar crunch, restrictions on imports, and delay in opening letters of credit have severely affected several sectors of the country as none of them met the growth targets set for the fiscal year 2022-23.

[S_Madhukar]

As the Gulf countries buy chunks of Karachi and may be Paxtan as a whole does it affect our plans for the Bakis… I mean given half a chance we will want to submerge the Karachi port …or are we going to shy away from such plans… sure insurance will be available… but I hope this doesn’t deter us

[sumsumne]

One Of Pakistan's Richest Men Among 5 Missing On Submarine That Was Visiting Titanic Wreckage

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/on ... bb3d9&ei=8

[SBajwa]

Check out this story.
Pakis are now suing foreign countries for money where illegal pakis die as they try to enter.

https://greekcitytimes.com/2023/06/20/p ... -eu-pylos/

Pakistan is taking legal and political actions against Greece over Pylos shipwreck

The Pakistan government announced a commission of inquiry into the fatal shipwreck off Pylos today.

The committee has already been constituted by the decision of Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, and within a week, it will submit a finding on further action. From the state officials' statements, it appears that the Pakistani government will take legal action against Greece, possibly also against the EU.

Such a move certainly has not only legal but mainly political dimensions, SLPress reports.

Pakistan's Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah has assured that the government will take strict action on the fatal sinking of the fishing boat in Greek waters and the report of the Pakistani authorities will be submitted in a week, attributing responsibility to those involved in the accident intentionally or negligently.

"The commission of inquiry will present its report in a week and the federal government will take further action," he added.

The Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs, according to the official news agency of Pakistan APP, said that the committee will ascertain the events that led to the overturning and sinking of the vessel in Greece, in an area of ​​responsibility of the Greek authorities.

In addition to identifying gaps in the Greek and European mechanisms, "which exposed precious human lives to the peculiar situation of human trafficking in this particular case, similar incidents of the recent past will be investigated."

Pakistani game in and out

The committee will analyse relevant incidents and measures will be taken in accordance with the international legal framework. International coordination will also be sought for both the investigation and prevention, control and punishment of human trafficking in the future.

The Pakistani government also promises to review the laws and, where necessary, the anti-trafficking legislation will be strengthened. Pakistani authorities have arrested 14 people who are being questioned about their involvement in the ring that transported the Pakistani migrants to the fatal fishing boat.

It is estimated that more than 300 Pakistanis perished in last Wednesday's shipwreck off Pylos.

Yesterday was a day of national mourning in the country. Of course, the problem of illegal immigration of Pakistanis to the EU did not arise with the tragic shipwreck of Pylos, it is chronic and many times in the past it has concerned the EU as Pakistan refuses or hinders the return of irregular immigrants.

However, the fatal accident off Pylos and the questions raised about the handling of the Greek authorities, it seems now, opens a new political tug-of-war between the EU and Pakistan, which will most likely centre on Greece.

And Ankara against Greece

The representative of the ruling party of Turkey, Justice and Development Party (AKP), Omer Çelik, had also requested the "establishment of an international commission of inquiry into the tragedy off Pylos" in his statements yesterday.

He even blamed Greece for all the shipwrecks that have occurred in the Aegean and the Mediterranean, speaking of "crimes against humanity."

Turkish president Tayyip Erdoğan contacted the Prime Minister of Pakistan Shahbaz Sharif this morning and conveyed the condolences of the Turkish people, according to the announcement of the Turkish Presidency.

AKP's government partner, Devlet Bahçeli, also took a position on the matter.

The president of the nationalist party MHP stated that "in Greece. off the coast of Morea, on June 14, a boat sank with the result that 78 people died and another 500 were missing. For this drama and disaster the Greek is responsible government, which also lied and must be held accountable."

"The Aegean and the Mediterranean must cease to be the seas of death. Turkey needs our government which represents the victory in Karabakh, the wisdom in foreign policy, the will in Cyprus and the national attitude in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean," he added.

The nine suspects to the investigator

The nine Egyptians accused of being traffickers were brought before the Kalamata investigator today to plead guilty. The defendants have denied the charges (felony) and argue that they were among the passengers who wanted to immigrate to Italy.

Testimonies are expected to be marathons. The Coast Guard announced that the investigations in the area of ​​the wreck are continuing after the discovery of at least two piles in the evening.

[Anoop]

[g.sarkar]

https://en.dailypakistan.com.pk/20-Jun- ... -this-week
PM Shehbaz embarks on two-day visit to France this week
20 Jun, 2023
ISLAMABAD – Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will undertake an official visit to France to participate in the New Global Financing Pact Summit being held in Paris from 22-23 June 2023.
Foreign Office, in a statement, said the premier will be visiting the European country at the invitation of French President Emmanuel Macron.
It said the Summit affords an opportunity for the leaders to discuss the contours of a new global architecture capable of meeting the challenges of financing sustainable development, environment, energy transition and climate change agenda.
......
Gautam
Showbaaz and Pappu have this in common. Whenever it gets hot, they leave for Europe for R&R. Pappu sometimes goes to Thailand for R&R.

[Deans]

As the Gulf countries buy chunks of Karachi and may be Paxtan as a whole does it affect our plans for the Bakis… I mean given half a chance we will want to submerge the Karachi port …or are we going to shy away from such plans… sure insurance will be available… but I hope this doesn’t deter us

I doubt UAE is actually going to buy this port - or anything else in Pak for that matter. Sounds like typical Pak press speculation.

[Deans]

Check out this story.
Pakis are now suing foreign countries for money where illegal pakis die as they try to enter.

https://greekcitytimes.com/2023/06/20/p ... -eu-pylos/

Pakistan is taking legal and political actions against Greece over Pylos shipwreck

Its a variant of the time tested `give me money or I'll shoot myself' strategy.

[Aditya_V]

For the UAE there is no point "buying " a port in Pakistan with the Pakistan miltary and population who will control it, anything in Pakistan will be controlled by the Paki miltary- there is nothing called Rule of law. So it will be absolute waste of money.

[Mollick.R]

Pakistan likely to hand over Karachi port terminals to UAE to raise emergency funds: Report

Cash-strapped Pakistan has constituted a negotiation committee to finalise a deal with the UAE for handing over its Karachi port terminals as it seeks to raise an emergency fund amid uncertainty over the revival of a stalled loan from the IMF, according to a media report on Tuesday. Finance Minister Ishaq Dar on Monday chaired the meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Inter-Governmental Commercial Transactions.


https://www.cnbctv18.com/economy/pakist ... 980781.htm



Pak to hand over Karachi port terminals to UAE

https://infra.economictimes.indiatimes. ... /101148824

[Anujan]

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2422716/go ... cpec?amp=1

Army to oversee economic revival
Civil-military leadership unveils plan for $1tr GDP by 2035

The civil-military leadership on Tuesday presented an “Economic Revival Plan”, stated to be bigger than the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), to address the nation’s continued struggles with growth.

The government has established a ‘Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC)’, which will serve as a streamlined interface for investors and remove all the bottlenecks in investments with the help of the army.

Now, the source said, under the SIFC, direct jobs opportunities would be provided to 15 to 20 million people and indirect job opportunities to another 75 to 100 million people in the next four to five years.


Along with this, the SIFC project will generate exports of $70 billion and “import substitution” of equal amount in the next four to five years. “The [SIFC] plan will also increase Pakistan’s foreign direct investment by $100 billion.”

The minister said that under the project foreign exchange reserves will also be enhanced in the next four to five years, which will lead to a reduction in the economic difficulties currently facing the country.

Seems to be a big committee to sell off everything to GCC countries. The person leading it will be big Danda Munir. This might or might not work. If they are able to raise money to pay off their debt, this will be a plus. On the other hand not sure how many ummah birathers are in line to buy things.

[partha]

Only 3 "tires"? That's not enough tires. You know this is doomed to fail just looking at that long list.

Another report - https://www.nation.com.pk/21-Jun-2023/a ... ic-revival

PM also thanked Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal and Power Minister Khurram Dastgir who worked diligent­ly in this regard. Especially, he thanked the new military lead­ership for taking interest in this project. This is a beautiful com­bination that all political parties and military leadership are on one page,” he added.

[Manish_P]

Hain.. doesn't the YooEss ambassador know that 'B' simply stands for Begging ?

US ambassador asks for Pakistan’s plan ‘B’

The United States asked Pakistan on Wednesday about its fallback option in case the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme ends next week without disbursing the third-to-last loan tranche of $ 1.2 billion.

During a meeting with Finance Minister Ishaq Dar held in the Q Block, Donald Blome, the United States Ambassador, raised the question, according to finance ministry officials.

The “plan B,” as Pakistani authorities term it, is now the most sought-after blueprint that everyone is looking for, as the four-year IMF programme may meet the same fate as the 21 previous failed programmes.

or maybe it stands for 'Black' money laundering

Sources say that Dar did not share many details about the fallback option but mentioned that the country was surviving without the IMF.

People privy to Pakistan’s fallback plan stated that the authorities would try to advance some of the government-to-government transactions to raise funds, including handing over four port berths to the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The government is also relying on a $ 100,000 no-questions-asked foreign remittance amnesty proposed in the budget for the next fiscal year. However, if no breakthrough is achieved during the expected PM-MD meeting in Paris, the government can implement this new amnesty from June 25th. In that case, a person can whiten $ 200,000 within 370 days, first by availing this facility before June 30th and then again in July as part of the next fiscal year’s limit, according to the sources.

[partha]

Does Pakistan need IMF considering it will become $1 trillion economy by 2035?

[Dilbu]

Pakistan receives no bid for six LNG cargoes

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL) Tuesday received zero bids against its June 13 tender for the purchase of six spot cargoes to be delivered during the period between October and December this year. Talking to this reporter, the Petroleum Division spokesman confirmed the development saying the PLL had received no response from the LNG trading companies. However, he offered no comments when asked about the reasons behind the zero response.

Earlier on August 6, 2022, the PLL floated a two-part tender seeking bids for 72 cargoes under 6-year term agreements, but it did not receive any bid. At that particular time, no LNG was available, as most of spot LNG was committed to the European countries.

Top officials are of the view that there are two reasons for the lack of response from international suppliers. One reason, according to them, is that the international trading companies did not show any interest as they (LNG suppliers) knew that the bids had been invited by the PLL to ascertain the lowest bids for each cargo and not to purchase the product from them. The lowest prices would be used as price discovery to purchase LNG cargo from SOCAR, an Azerbaijan firm. The second reason is, the officials said, that the LNG suppliers are also well known to the bitter ground economic realities of the country, which has few dollars to purchase the spot LNG. They know that Pakistan is a high-risk country, as it is running short of US dollars and is unable to open and honor LCs. The official said in the last ECC meeting, the Petroleum Division was allowed to ink the LNG procurement agreement with SOCAR-UK amid strong opposition by ex-prime minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi.

[Dilbu]

Dairy farmers to hike milk price to Rs280 per liter

The dairy farms association is likely to hike the milk price up to Rs280 per litre, ARY News reported. As per details, the meeting between the administration and the dairy farm association to fix the milk price ended without any result. The dairy farm association told the administration that the production price of milk is Rs 242 per litre. The dairy farmer pleads to increase the milk price up to Rs 280 per litre as the production cost has increased.

On February 10, the milk was sold at Rs190 in the metropolitan while the official rate was fixed at Rs180. After the increase, the per litre price of milk soared to Rs210.

[Dilbu]

‘Plan ‘B’ must be actioned’

KARACHI: The business community has urged the government to develop a comprehensive economic plan as concerns grow over the potential stall of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program. With the IMF programme’s future hanging in the balance, experts fear potential setbacks that could negatively impact the country’s financial stability and growth prospects.

Pakistan Business Forum (PBF), Vice President, Ahmad Jawad expressed doubts about the completion of the IMF program, stating that Pakistan is not even on the agenda for the upcoming executive board meeting on June 29. Jawad attributed geopolitical factors to the programme’s delay and raised concerns that Pakistan may be unable to fulfil its obligations by the programme’s June 30 deadline.

Highlighting Pakistan’s advantageous geographical location with neighbouring countries such as China, Iran, and India, Jawad emphasised the untapped potential for the nation to become one of the world’s richest countries.

Union of Small and Medium Enterprises (UNISAME) President, Zulfikar Thaver urged the government to foster strong relationships with countries that could provide assistance. Citing Japan as an example, he said that at the cost of its own industry, Pakistan patronised the automobile industries of Japan and now when the country needs help, Japan is nowhere to be seen.

Thaver expanded on this view stating that IMF loans are relatively small compared to the significant inflow of home remittances. “The IMF loan is just $1 billion whereas the home remittances are $2.5 billion every month,” he said. He proposed a dollar voucher scheme to leverage remittances in the open market, reducing reliance on informal channels and ensuring beneficiaries benefit from the official exchange rate.

The PBF called on the government to open imports to support GDP growth, reinstate tax exemptions for five zero-rated sectors, and provide incentives for remittances from overseas Pakistanis. They also stressed the importance of a competitive energy tariff mechanism and targeted subsidies for export-oriented sectors.

[Tanaji]

Overseas Pakistanis send $2.5B a month to Pakistan?

[Manish_P]

Yes. And those are just the official ones. The unofficial ones are probably more given that the rate is better...

https://www.dawn.com/news/amp/1747026

[chetak]

Yes. And those are just the official ones. The unofficial ones are probably more given that the rate is better...

https://www.dawn.com/news/amp/1747026

this is probably what is keeping their economy lurching along, the hawala transfers from labourers in the gulf that sustain their families in pukestan, and somewhat cushion and mitigate the effect of high prices

[Trikaal]

Pukis are a remittance economy. Their annual remittances (~$30 billion) are higher than their annual exports (~$25 billion).

[jash_p]

Hain.. doesn't the YooEss ambassador know that 'B' simply stands for Begging ?

Plan B is BEIGING.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/2 ... bn-tranche
Pakistan PM Sharif requests IMF release $1.1bn tranche
Pakistan is facing a dire economic situation in an election year with multiple challenges mounting.
Syed Hussain, 22 Jun 2023
Islamabad, Pakistan – The government of Pakistan has made yet another appeal to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to release the $1.1bn tranche, pending since November last year, as the $6.5bn loan programme nears its scheduled expiry at the end of June.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met IMF’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva in Paris on Thursday and said the country has completed all the requirements asked for by the lender.
Sharif added that Pakistan was “fully committed” to fulfilling its obligations, according to a statement issued by the prime minister’s office.
Sharif, who is in France to attend the Summit for a New Global Financial Pact, expressed his hope that the funds would be released at the earliest and would “help strengthen Pakistan’s ongoing efforts towards economic stabilisation, and bring relief to its people”, the statement read.
Pakistan entered a $6bn IMF programme in 2019, which was later increased by another $500m last year. Pakistan received a $1.17bn tranche from the programme in August 2022, as part of it its seventh and eighth reviews.
IMF sent its delegation to Pakistan for a 10-day visit earlier this year to negotiate the conditions for the ninth review but the tranche remains undelivered with the programme’s expiry date set for June 30.
......
Gautam
1.1 billion is just peanuts, as the Jernail used to say.

[yensoy]

Is it fair to say that IMF is waterboarding Pakistan? They won't let Pakistan die but they will show what death feels like.

[Anujan]

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif decried on Thursday the response of international institutions to Pakistan’s appeals for funds following catastrophic floods in 2022, saying that it was offered loans whereas billions were being spent on the defence of “a country or countries”.


The premier made these remarks at the two-day New Global Financing Pact Summit in Paris where he stressed the need for a fair and equitable formula for the distribution of financial resources in the world.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1761120/globa ... ris-summit

Translation

[vimal]

What a country

[Dilbu]

Pakistan unveils increased defense budget, IMF decries spending plan

ISLAMABAD — The Pakistani government has requested a nearly 16% increase to its defense budget, despite a standoff with the International Monetary Fund over economic stagflation. The government unveiled its request for 1.804 trillion rupees (U.S. $6.267 billion) for fiscal 2023-2024 — a 15.7% increase over the revised total for fiscal 2022-2023 — on June 9.

Making cuts to defense spending could prove difficult in Pakistan, which is facing its nuclear-armed archrival India and is combatting the Pakistani Taliban, also known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP. A Feb. 13 report by the U.N. Security Council, cited members states as having found the Taliban’s 2021 takeover of neighboring Afghanistan has “emboldened TTP to escalate attacks against Pakistan.”

Asked by Defense News if Pakistan could defeat the TTP without the full cooperation of the Afghan Taliban, Safdar Hussain, a joint director and research analyst at the Pak Institute for Peace Studies think tank, said that “ ‘defeating’ or ‘full elimination’ may not be the right term in case of the TTP, as it is not a conventional army.” Rather, the TTP “can be weakened to a greater extent with or without the help of Afghan Taliban,” he explained.

Tuaha Adil, a research economist at the Policy Research Institute of Market Economy, said the amount Pakistan plans to spend is concerning. However, he told Defense News, at 12.4% of total expenditure and 1.7% of GDP, the FY23-24 figures show a decline compared to FY22-23 figures of 14.3% and 1.87% respectively.

Pointing to the TTP threat in particular, he said defense spending must rise, even at the expense of development.

[Dilbu]

Pakistan has to repay $10.35bn in debt servicing till Dec

ISLAMABAD: The risk of default on external debt repayments will emerge within the first six months (July-Dec), as Pakistan will have to repay $10.35 billion in foreign debt servicing till end of December 2023. In order to avert a balance of payment crisis, including repayment of external debt and obligations, Pakistan requires injections of $4 to $6 billion immediately in case there is no revival of the IMF programme by end of June 2023.

The details available with The News revealed the country would have to repay $3.79 billion as principal and interest repayments in the first quarter (July-September) of next fiscal year starting from July 1, 2023.

Islamabad’s external debt servicing obligations will rise to $6.568 billion in the second quarter (Oct-Dec) of fiscal year 2023-24.

Details of foreign loan repayments shows Pakistan would have to repay to China under guaranteed debt to the tune of $363 million, including principal loan amount of $280 million and interest payment of $83 million in the first quarter of the next financial year.

Pakistan owed to repay total bilateral debt to the tune of $1.05 billion in the first quarter (July-Sept) of next financial year out of which Islamabad would repay $15 million to France, $24.67 million to Japan, $0.6 million to Korea, $591 million to China, $6.5 million to Kuwait and $2.29 million to the UAE.

Pakistan will have to repay to Saudi Arabia to the tune of $398.08 million in shape of foreign loan repayment in the first quarter of next fiscal year starting from July 1, 2023.

Ironically, Pakistan will be bound to pay commitment charges as penalty to international creditors to the tune of $12 million.

On account of Eurobond, Pakistan will repay $72 million as interest payment in the first quarter of next fiscal year. There will be repayment of $84 million on account of commercial loan repayment in shape of interest payment in the first quarter of next fiscal year.

Within the first three months of next fiscal year, Pakistan will repay to China $1.096 billion in shape of SAFE deposit, including $1 billion as principal amount and $96 million as interest repayment. This $1 billion SAFE deposit will be due in July 2023 with expectations China would grant rollover on this SAFE deposit amount. On Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s deposit, Pakistan will have to repay $30 million as interest repayment in the first quarter of next fiscal year.

Pakistan will have to repay loan amount of $235 million to the IMF in the first quarter of next fiscal year, including $165.02 million as principal amount and $69.97 million as interest repayment. For Naya Pakistan Certificates, the government will repay principal and interest repayment of $93 million in the first three months of next fiscal year.

Pakistan will have to repay multilateral creditors to the tune of $660.58 million in the first quarter of next fiscal year, including $298 million to ADB, $9.23 million to AIIB, $9 million to unspent balance, $227.67 million WB’s IDA loan, $90.5 million from WB’s IBRD and $22.31 million from IDB.

For short-term IDB loan, Pakistan will repay $107.57 million in the first quarter of current fiscal year.

Total grand foreign loan repayments stood at $3.79 billion in the first quarter (July-Sept) of next fiscal year, including principal amount of $2.99 billion and interest payment of $801.6 million.

In the second quarter (Oct-Dec) period of fiscal year 2023-24, the official data shows Pakistan would have to repay Chinese commercial bank to the tune of $33.38 million during October to December period.

Total bilateral debt repayments will be standing at $1.009 billion to different friendly countries.

There will be commercial debt repayments of $33 million in the second quarter of next fiscal year. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) deposit repayment will become due to the tune of $3.03 billion, including $3 billion deposits as principal amount and $30 million as interest repayment. There are expectations KSA will grant rollover of $3 billion deposits.

There will be repayment of $228 million to IMF in the second quarter of next fiscal year. The Naya Pakistan Certificates repayment will be standing at $80 million.

Total foreign loan repayments to the multilateral creditors will be standing at $730.29 million in the second quarter of next fiscal year. The short-term loan of IDB repayment will stand at $64.2 million.

Total external debt repayments will be standing at $6.568 billion in the second quarter of next fiscal, posing serious risk to economy on external debt repayments, while foreign exchange reserves stand at around $4 billion at the moment.

[neeraj]

This is from the official handle of the Pakistani PMO

https://twitter.com/PakPMO/status/16717 ... 15776?s=20



Free Umbrella...
Hope umbrella gets deposited in Toshakhana

[yensoy]

Pakistan unveils increased defense budget, IMF decries spending plan

ISLAMABAD — The Pakistani government has requested a nearly 16% increase to its defense budget, despite a standoff with the International Monetary Fund over economic stagflation. The government unveiled its request for 1.804 trillion rupees (U.S. $6.267 billion) for fiscal 2023-2024 — a 15.7% increase over the revised total for fiscal 2022-2023 — on June 9.

This is terrible. 16% won't even cover the rupee depreciation. They should have asked for 50% or 100% increase in defence budget.

[Dilbu]

Shell is leaving TSP.
An uncomfortable reality check

The recent news of a leading oil marketing company’s decision to leave Pakistan has created a stir in the country. While some attribute this to the current economic environment, the underlying factors are far more intricate and pervasive than they appear on the surface. This issue permeates not just the petroleum sector, but the entirety of Pakistan’s industrial fabric. Now, more than ever, it is essential for policymakers to look beyond superficial observations and grapple with the layered realities shaping investors' decisions.

However, attributing Shell’s decision to leave merely to recent economic conditions oversimplifies the situation. A complex interplay of factors, such as the long-term strategy of its parent company, likely influenced its decision. However, regardless of the reasons, Shell’s exit underlines an alarming trend. Recall that Italian oil giant Eni, after two decades of operation, and Singapore-based Puma Energy both left Pakistan within recent years. Back in April, the Secretary of the Petroleum Division told a National Assembly Committee that only three foreign companies were left in the oil and gas sector.

The environment for all oil companies is challenging. Petroleum product prices are generally tightly regulated, credit lines have shrunk in the past few years while working capital requirements have gone up, and the omnipresent government dominates every aspect of the industry. State-owned petroleum companies monopolise the spaces that, in a free and fair market, should be held by the private sector, fostering inefficiency and complacency.

[Manish_P]

Monday up, fridin down.... baki stock(fixing) exchange

https://www.dawn.com/news/1761835/share ... mf-revival

The benchmark KSE-100 closed at 41,347 points, up 1,371 points or 3.42 per cent.

Intermarket Securities’ Head of Equity Raza Jafri said the pending ninth IMF review, which seemed to have been written off by markets, was now seeing “fresh hope” after the government made changes to the budget and removed import restrictions

[partha]

What are the chances of a staff level agreement going through? While Pakis quickly downhill skiied and passed amendments to budget to comply with IMF's demands, there are still the issues of currency manipulation, external financing gap, broadening the tax base to name a few. Pakis are acting like all concerns of IMF are taken care of with amendments which is not the case.

[Anujan]

Depends on where the IMF is ready to offer "concessions"

Pakis are already tactically brilliant. They have withdrawn the circular to restrict imports but are saying that it will take months to implement. Tax collection target is similar. You can set a goal for one jillion trillion billion dollars in tax, but who are they going to collect it from?

They did follow IMF conditions for BISP, getting rid of amnesty, increasing petroleum development levy etc.

Let's see if IMF thinks "this is all we'll ever get from pakis" and say yes.

Then there is the mechanics part of it. The current program ends in 5 days. Pakis have to sign a staff level agreement and IMF board should approve it before that time. Pakis have done what I used to do in college. Do last minute cramming a few hours before the exam and finish the diagrams in the chemistry record notebook 4 hours before submission.

Let's see if they pass. I passed.

[partha]

Yeah, it all depends on IMF's willingness to get scammed again by Pakis. IMF knows Pakis will walk back on some of the promises.