Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 24 Jun 2023 19:33

What I've heard so far (am following Russian news and from a friend in Moscow).

Putin has said that what has happened is the worst possible crime in Russia - treason against the motherland (which every Russian is taught from childhood). Either Prigozhin seizes power in the next 24 hours, or he's dead.

The Wagner rebels are divided in 2 lots. 1 group is in Rostov, they have seized the HQ of the Southern Military district (all its formations are at
the front), but life is going on as usual in Rostov and regular military operations directed from Rostov are also continuing.
There aren't that many Wagner fighters in Rostov and Chechen fighters from the Akhmat group are heading to Rostov to surround them.

The 2nd lot is heading for Moscow in a 170 vehicle convoy. They shot down a MI-8 helicopter that fired on them. Tried to shoot down a KA-52 but the missile was deflected and hit an oil tank instead. Unclear if a transport aircraft was also destroyed at an airport. Russian jets are buzzing the convoy but haven't fired at them yet. By tonight, they will meet Russian army units guarding the approaches to Moscow.

No change in the fighting. All Russian army units are in place at the front. No idea what the rest of Wagner is doing, those involved seem to be a small part of Wagner. Wagner fighters were told they would be incorporated into the regular Russian army and had to sign contracts and many seem to have done so - that also seems to be a cause for Prigozhin to rebel.

The attack on the Wagner base, which Prigozhin claimed was done by the Russian army and he claimed was the immediate cause of the rebellion, was most probably false flag.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 24 Jun 2023 19:39

IndraD wrote:NATO bots celebrating Pirozin on social media like role model, Bakhmut was nothing burger & Wagner deserves EU citizenship!

Yes, until yesterday, they were a terrorist organzation committing genocide against innocent Ukrainians. Now they are freedom fighters.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 24 Jun 2023 19:50

CIA probably cooked this up behind the scenes. Its their working. They knew the cracks exist. They must have put some planted elements expand them.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 24 Jun 2023 19:55

IndraD wrote:good take by kim.dotcom
My view on the actions by Prigozhin and the Wagner Group in Russia:

This started as a power struggle between Prigozhin and Shoigu. In the beginning of the Special military operation Shoigu and his team made mistakes and Prigozhin became of strong critic of Shoigu.

Prigozhin then had success in Bakhmut with Wagner Group presenting himself as a better military leader than Shoigu. In my view Shoigu then provoked Prigozhin by limiting ammunition supplies to Bakhmut resulting in Wagner Group losses and a strong reaction from Prigozhin. Many of you have seen the video of Prigozhin attacking Shoigu and the Russian military leadership.

Ammunition deliveries were restored and victory in Bakhmut was achieved but the video outburst by Prigozhin was likely counterproductive for him because the Kremlin and senior political leaders in Moscow saw him as a loose cannon who can’t be trusted.

Prigozhin doubled down predicting a massive loss for the Russian military claiming that it was not ready for the Ukrainian counter-offensive. He claimed that the Russian troops are badly equipped and poorly managed by Shoigu. With the Russian military successfully repelling the Ukrainian counter-offensive Prigozhin had played himself into a corner and his time was running out because Shoigu and his Generals delivered a major victory for the Kremlin.

In my view the actions by Prigozhin are an act of desperation because he has lost the power struggle against Shoigu and is likely facing serious retaliation.

Western media claims this is an attempted coup against Putin. That’s nonsense. The popularity of Putin within Russia and in the non-western world has never been higher. However this war between Prigozhin and Shoigu is an unwelcome distraction for the Kremlin and the most likely outcome will be the arrest or termination of Prigozhin. https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/16 ... 21856?s=20

I think its a good summary. Couple of points:

Prigozhin is a businessman, not a soldier. During the battle of Bakhmut, he cultivated the image of a man constantly at the front, facing the same dangers as his men, (while he claimed Russian army generals were back in HQ). This is not entirely true. The Russian army doctrine requires battalion commanders to be right at the front and brigade commanders to expose themselves to more risk than NATO officers (which is why many are dead). Shoigu may be corrupt and a political animal, but he is from Tuva which is known for its martial spirit and tough soldiers.

After the Bakhmut victory, Prigozhin positioned himself as a new Manstein/ Napolean, while claiming the Russian generals were jokers, which was
also not true. They have displayed a very high level of competence in for e.g. defending against the current Ukrainian offensive.

The ammo shortage for Wagner was no different than what it was for other Russian units. Russia was producing for e.g. 4000 *152mm shells a day, while consuming 20,000. If they did not start cutting down consumption from March 23, they would exhaust all their old stocks by Sept. They also
had to hoard ammo to stop the current Ukrainian counter offensive. Russian army units have learnt from long experience not to complain about
shortages, because it can get you shot (Wagner has that luxury).

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 24 Jun 2023 20:10

YashG wrote:CIA probably cooked this up behind the scenes. Its their working. They knew the cracks exist. They must have put some planted elements expand them.

Most likely explanation. CIA through Russian oligarchs. A lot of cash and evidence of transfers was found today in a raid on Wagner HQ in St Pts.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 24 Jun 2023 20:55

Tanaji wrote:
eklavya wrote:^^^
Why should an organisation like this even exist. The only armed forces in a country need to be under direct control of the government. President Putin is reaping what he sowed. This guy may cut a deal with the CIA. Anything’s possible.
Should Blackwater exist?

Blackwater never revolted against US govt -- I don't think Eric Prinze has ever inserted himself into US politics.

Prighozin has really gone over the line. His personality is the problem.

Too Many Macho Cooks Spoil the Soup.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 24 Jun 2023 20:55

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 24 Jun 2023 20:58

Is this situation going to turn into some kind of civil war?

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 24 Jun 2023 21:04

Some speculation on Twitter that the recent coup could be behind the from the $6B accounting error...a comfortable life in West with lots of moolah would be on the table for many high ranking officials in Wagner group...many lefties in West are rejoicing and hoping Ukraine/NATO will use the turmoil as an opportunity to further weaken Russian forces.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 24 Jun 2023 21:31

Zynda wrote:Some speculation on Twitter that the recent coup could be behind the from the $6B accounting error...a comfortable life in West with lots of moolah would be on the table for many high ranking officials in Wagner group...many lefties in West are rejoicing and hoping Ukraine/NATO will use the turmoil as an opportunity to further weaken Russian forces.

So you're saying that because Prighozin started mouthing off against Moscow, investigations into his finances were stepped up, and this has now triggered his revolt against the Putin govt?
If so, it shows that this guy was never the right pick from the start, and was always doomed to be unreliable.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 24 Jun 2023 22:22

Interesting comments from our own General Bakshi:

So Wagner troops were asked to sign new contract agreements with Russian Defense Ministry. That's what set off Prighozin and tipped him over the edge.

Has Prighozin now defected to the CIA?

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 24 Jun 2023 22:31

Wagner rebel forces are currently bunched up together in Rostov and en route to Moscow, to show strength and look threatening, but it also makes them an easier target. Most were serving jailbirds, so SBU would know most of them, so melting away is also a very short term option. I hope they realise the folly of going against their own army in a dead end fight and calm down to negotiate what ever it is that they want.

The worst would be a Wagner vs Chechen fight, both very good at urban warfare.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 24 Jun 2023 22:40

Also, how is China reacting to these unfolding events in Russia?
If I were Xi Jinping, I would be alarmed by this -- because it looks like CIA may be succeeding in taking out Putin.

Wagner forces are moving towards Moscow, and there doesn't seem to be anything stopping them.
It looks almost like CIA has gotten together with some of the Oligarchs and convinced them to help Wagner make this move against Putin.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 24 Jun 2023 22:47

Looks like Arnab has set the trend for irrespectful hosts who are aggressive with their innvited panelists. Only these two are a lot more stupid

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 24 Jun 2023 22:59

Reports are coming in of successful negotiations with Wagner, faciliated by Belorussian President Lukashenko. https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1 ... 38433?s=20

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 24 Jun 2023 23:01

Cyrano wrote:Looks like Arnab has set the trend for irrespectful hosts who are aggressive with their innvited panelists. Only these two are a lot more stupid

every stupid person & clown comments on every thing under the sun this trend was started by no less than Shekhar Gupta himself!
Abhijit Iyyer types get invited (parents IAS) on panel, there is cotire of elite connected predators in NCR who get invited to channels and throw verbal diarrhoea around.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 24 Jun 2023 23:14

multiple Ru handles reporting of peaceful resolution.

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 24 Jun 2023 23:34

sanman wrote:Also, how is China reacting to these unfolding events in Russia?
If I were Xi Jinping, I would be alarmed by this -- because it looks like CIA may be succeeding in taking out Putin.

Wagner forces are moving towards Moscow, and there doesn't seem to be anything stopping them.
It looks almost like CIA has gotten together with some of the Oligarchs and convinced them to help Wagner make this move against Putin.

right ..

sorry but i think its always useful to listen to both sides if you want to make a good assessment

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 24 Jun 2023 23:52

It seems Prigorjin lost his head when new contracts were proposed by Russian MoD, because constitutionally Russia can't have multiple military forces on its own soil. (If Putin was the evil dictator hanging on to power like the west always makes him out to be, he'd have jumped at the idea of having a private force armed to the teeth with tanks and planes & loyal to him personally) Reports emerging that Belarus president Lukashenko, after speaking with Putin earlier in the day, reached Prigorjin and managed to knock some sense into his head. The idiot has agreed to make a u turn and get his Wagner troops back to their bases. Popular opinion wasnt with Wagner, they put mines on the roads in Rostov which people quite calmly and maturely explained to them that there are better ways to negotiate for what they want, but this kind of stuff is just not done in one's own country. They went from heros of bakhmut to traitors to idiots all in a day !!
Assuming this is the end of this storm in a teacup, Putin has reacted to the situation very smartly, addressed the nation immediately with clarity and resolve. But sent a very credible and trusted third party to mediate and diffuse the situation. Prigorjin will be made to feel sheepish and go on double offensive to make amends and in the process expend himself and more of his troops in service of the motherland to clean their names and get respectable cenotaphs.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 24 Jun 2023 23:57

ANALYSIS INSURRECTION AGREEMENT EVENING JUNE 24

It's very unclear what the motivation for the insurrection was or what both sides agreed about. Until we get more information everything is just speculation. But let us do a short speculation. It's unlikely that Prigozhin can keep Wagner as his private army in Ukraine after what happened. And It's also unlikely that he just folded and didn't achieve anything.

The most obvious gain Prigozhin might have achieved is the resignation of Shoigu. Putin might do a reshuffling of ministers in the government and put Shoigu on another post. The sacking of Gerasimov is more unsure. If Shoigu, and even Gerasimow, are dismissed it will be very interesting to see who replaces him. If there are persons associated with Prigozhin that are brought to higher positions - like Turchak, Kovalchuk, Likhachev or Kiriyen. That will mean a partial win for the clan behind Prigozhin and Wagner.

MoD wanted full control over all military units in Ukraine. They will probably get that and PMC Wagner might be divided. One part stays in Ukraine and is integrated into RuAF. Another part might stay under control of Prigozhin but operates only abroad, as before the war. But if one of Prigozhin's allies get control of MoD you can say that Wagner/Ukraine partly stays in the Prigozhin family.

All participants in the uprising are pardoned, but Prigozhin is probably finished as a main Russian power player, for now, even though his clan isn't finished or even might go strengthened out of today's chaos. https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/sta ... 55779?s=20

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 25 Jun 2023 00:06

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1 ... 14112?s=20

Agreement by Lukashenko:
According to unconfirmed reports, the main agreement to resolve the conflict was the resignation of the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense. In return, Yevgeny Prigozhin reduces his activities in our country and focuses on his projects in Africa.

-> Actually a fairly Happy End … if confirmed. Means Surovikin is the boss?

Roop · Post by **Roop** » 25 Jun 2023 07:59

Cyrano wrote:It seems Prigorjin lost his head ...

And now he should literally lose his head. I'm talking summary court martial (or whatever the Russian equivalent is) followed by execution by firing squad / gallows / guillotine or other suitable method. And the execution needs to be recorded on film/video and the footage should mysteriously make its way to social media for all the world to see. Retribution needs to occur, and needs to be seen to occur, to the point where no one has any doubt about how further incidents of this kind of thing will be handled.

Putin has reacted to the situation very smartly ...

That's debatable, but okay, he has done the absolute bare minimum required of him under the circumstances. He should have nipped this thing in the bud at least a month ago.

Prigorjin will be made to feel sheepish...

"Made to feel sheepish"??!! Are you serious? What is he, a pre-teen child caught shoplifting? Prygozhin has been spouting off like a raving lunatic for at least a month, humiliating his commanders, his country and others on the international stage in the middle of a shooting war. It's hard to imagine a better textbook example of the definition of mutiny (at minimum) and even probably high treason.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 25 Jun 2023 08:21

The most amusing aspect of the whole western reaction to Wagner "Rebellion".

Wagner if it won. Would have unleashed the full might of the Russian state and army to put down Ukraine.

Unlike the cautious approach taken by Putin.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 25 Jun 2023 08:42

Admin note: KrishnaK off for a fortnight to a Belarus honeymoon, for trolling around.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 25 Jun 2023 10:14

The actions taken by Prigozhin are too extreme for an internal dispute that could be resolved by mediation. He crossed almost all the red lines before deciding to negotiate. How can things go back to normal after this? As they say things are done differently in mother Russia indeed.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 25 Jun 2023 10:31

Progozhin's rantings for the past 3 months would be gross insubordination in any army and unthinkable in Russia. With the benefit of hindsight
and not being Russian, my view was that he should have been dealt with much earlier and dealt with more harshly now.

Looking at it from Putin's point of view, my sense is he wanted the battle of Bakhmut to be over and then rein in Prigozhin and also incorporate Wagner in the Russian army, rather than create friction during the battle. After Bakhmut, when Prigozhin started making outrageous statements about the Russian army and also resisted MODs attempts to get his men to sign contracts with the Russian army, he was finished. Only question was weather he would retire quietly, or, with his delusions of grandeur and under NATO influence, try to seize power.

Many in Russia who knew about the structural problems in the Russian army felt Progozhin had a point and the generals should go. After this, even the strong Prigozhin fans in Russia feel his statements were wrong and he should be shot from treason. Putin critics now feel he is being too soft on the rebels, because he's a statesman and father figure who is willing to forgive and not let more Russians die. Yesterday, in a short interview after his address, Putin said he can forgive most things, but not treason. I think even skeptical Russians now believe NATO is trying to destroy them and were behind this. The more hardline Russians talk of how in Stalin's time all members of Wagner would have been shot and their families deported to the gulag and say Putin should now take a much harder line with the collective West.

Prigozhin will probably fall out of a window in Minsk after some time.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 25 Jun 2023 14:04

https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/sta ... 84225?s=20 reports of many air force equipments of Russia lost in the hands of Wagner is not matched by video evidence.

3 x Mi-8mtpr
1 x Mi-8
1 x Ka-52
1 x Mi-35
1 x IL-18(22) VZPU
A total of 13 pilots were killed per day.
Crew colleagues suggested that there were 8 people in the IL-18.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 25 Jun 2023 14:05

NEWS UPDATE RUSSIAN REINFORCEMENTS EARLY MORNING JUNE 25

A news getting lost in the wake of the Wagner excursion to Rostov and towards Moscow yesterday was Russian news of new reserve units/armies. Since February more than 150 000 new professional soldiers has joined the ranks of RuAF according to official Russian sources. Presently about 1300 new professional soldiers sign on each day. Some of these are former soldiers rejoining and some are new ones.

Most of these new soldiers has not been sent to the front but are used to form a new army and a new army corps. The new army consists of 2 or 3 army corps so all in all there will be 3 or 4 new army corps with up to 150 000 men and at least 500 tanks. Earlier I've heard reports of RuAF organising 2 new attack army corps. I don't know if those are the same as the new ones.

But this means that RuAF are organising an attack force of at least 3-4 army corps intended for counterattacking Ukrainian breakthroughs or making their own offensives into Ukrainian territory.

The high numbers of new Russian professional soldiers (30-40 000/month) compensates easily for losses on the battlefield. It also makes another round of mobilisation unnecessary. If recruitment continues at present speed, around 400 000 new soldiers will join RuAF in 2023. https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/sta ... 74052?s=20

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 25 Jun 2023 14:31

Prigozhin will go into exile in Belarus as per the deal.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 25 Jun 2023 15:34

IndraD wrote:NEWS UPDATE RUSSIAN REINFORCEMENTS EARLY MORNING JUNE 25

The high numbers of new Russian professional soldiers (30-40 000/month) compensates easily for losses on the battlefield. It also makes another round of mobilisation unnecessary. If recruitment continues at present speed, around 400 000 new soldiers will join RuAF in 2023. https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/sta ... 74052?s=20

Russia losing 30/40K troops/month in Ukraine ?!? Cant be meaning this.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 25 Jun 2023 15:35

no, that number is replacement + new battalion formation.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 25 Jun 2023 16:45

Britain fears Wagner can now attack Kiev from Belarus https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russ ... s-12541713

Wagner could lead attack on Kyiv from Belarus, British general warns
Ukraine's leaders must guard against a possible attack led by Yevgeny Prigozhin launched at Kyiv from Belarus, General Lord Richard Dannatt tells Trevor Phillips on Sky News.

"The fact that he's gone to Belarus is a matter of some concern," said the former British Army chief of general staff.

If he has "kept an effective fighting force around him then he presents a threat again to the Ukrainian flank closest to Kyiv", where the war began, he said.

Lord Dannatt said it "is quite possible" that Russia may use the Wagner Group to try and take Kyiv again.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 25 Jun 2023 16:57

YashG wrote:
IndraD wrote:NEWS UPDATE RUSSIAN REINFORCEMENTS EARLY MORNING JUNE 25

The high numbers of new Russian professional soldiers (30-40 000/month) compensates easily for losses on the battlefield. It also makes another round of mobilisation unnecessary. If recruitment continues at present speed, around 400 000 new soldiers will join RuAF in 2023. https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/sta ... 74052?s=20
Russia losing 30/40K troops/month in Ukraine ?!? Cant be meaning this.

Russia has recruited the following since last Sept:
- 300,000 reservists called up (this was the mobilization last Sept). They will stay for the duration of the war.
- Volunteers. Around 10,000 per month joined between Sept & Dec. It rose to 20,000 month from Jan to May and supposedly 40,000 in June
when German tanks appeared on the front.

So there are 480,000 new soldiers. Assuming 10% are medically unfit, we have 430,000.
Probably a min 200,000 of these will be in support functions, leaving 230,000 in combat roles.

This year, there are probably 8000 casualties a month (incl badly wounded), so 48,000 replacements - almost all in combat roles.
This leaves around 180,000 available in combat formations, of which as MoD says, 150,000 are in their units.
The distribution of these men will probably be
- 6 new divisions (3 corps) for which hardware is available.
- 6 divisions will have 1 more brigade each - either infantry, of which there is a shortage, or replacement for a brigade that gets pulled out of
the line to rest and refit. 3 of these divisions (with an additional brigade each) may be in the 1st Guards Tank army, which is well placed to
be the `fist' for any Russian offensive.

There is no point recruiting more as there is not enough hardware to equip more motorized rifle battalions. The shortages are in artillery ammunition and barrels, air defense, electronic warfare, drones etc.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 25 Jun 2023 17:26

Plus Russia needs manpower in its defense Industry to manufacture the items it needs.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 25 Jun 2023 17:39

The West is furiously trying to peddle how Putins position is vulnerable now and he will be toppled as he is not all powerful.

This is like all the diseases in the world that Putin was suffering from

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 25 Jun 2023 18:37

Deans wrote: …
So there are 480,000 new soldiers. Assuming 10% are medically unfit, we have 430,000.
Probably a min 200,000 of these will be in support functions, leaving 230,000 in combat roles.

This year, there are probably 8000 casualties a month (incl badly wounded), so 48,000 replacements - almost all in combat roles. …

How do you view the subordination fiasco impacting the command and structure of SMO going forward? Or, was the PMC’s role was very tactical (e.g. Bakhmut)? I’m assuming the level of suspicion of PMC among the top mil brass would be elevated, regardless whether it is justified or not. And, on the casualties, the run rate can’t be sustainable for another six months, but I could have said the same thing 6 months ago and proven wrong. With respect to Russ, the discussions (outside of conflict situation) often revolve around military hardware/prowess, comparing and contrasting with western hardware, but in real conflict, especially a preemptive one, ability to take the that level of casualties and continue is something else…

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 25 Jun 2023 19:58

IndraD wrote:Britain fears Wagner can now attack Kiev from Belarus https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russ ... s-12541713

Wagner could lead attack on Kyiv from Belarus, British general warns

Lord Dannatt said it "is quite possible" that Russia may use the Wagner Group to try and take Kyiv again.

[/quote a

All that smoke an drama might very well be exactly that., opening another flank where ukies are most vulnerable and near their main supply lines via poland..would also mean goal posts have moved forward to Kiev !!

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 25 Jun 2023 20:04

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1 ... 79936?s=20 Face of war: English speaking soldiers in Ukraine drive over a mine.
-> Devastating explosion

https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1 ... 04352?s=20 Ukr ammo depo struck with massive shock wave

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 25 Jun 2023 20:16

chanakyaa wrote:
Deans wrote: …
So there are 480,000 new soldiers. Assuming 10% are medically unfit, we have 430,000.
Probably a min 200,000 of these will be in support functions, leaving 230,000 in combat roles.

This year, there are probably 8000 casualties a month (incl badly wounded), so 48,000 replacements - almost all in combat roles. …
How do you view the subordination fiasco impacting the command and structure of SMO going forward? Or, was the PMC’s role was very tactical (e.g. Bakhmut)? I’m assuming the level of suspicion of PMC among the top mil brass would be elevated, regardless whether it is justified or not. And, on the casualties, the run rate can’t be sustainable for another six months, but I could have said the same thing 6 months ago and proven wrong. With respect to Russ, the discussions (outside of conflict situation) often revolve around military hardware/prowess, comparing and contrasting with western hardware, but in real conflict, especially a preemptive one, ability to take the that level of casualties and continue is something else…

The Wagner fiasco will probably impact Russian foreign policy more than the Ukraine war, Wagner provides security for 2 African countries and the Syrian govt, so it has to continue in some form there (probably with HQ in Belarus). if not, it will affect Russia's credibility abroad.

As per Russia's constitution, you can't have any army operating on Russian territory, which is not subordinate to the Russian state (no PMC on Russian soil). The Russians did not have enough infantry with the skills required to fight in Bakhmut (or willingness to take risks), so they had to rely on Wagner at the time. At some point, Wagner units in Russian would have to be subordinate to the MoD. Prigozhin knew this and it's being done now.
It helps that the convict part of Wagner was largely killed in Bakhmut, or will be released, so those that remain - all ex Russian army, will go back to their former units. The PMC officers whose loyalty is suspect will probably not remain.

After Bakhmut, Russia (as per MOD figures) no longer needs to conscript, because it is getting enough volunteers. Ukraine on the other hand has
just announced total mobilization in many districts. It means every man 18-59 (without exception) has to report to the army and can be immediately sent to a combat unit. This is in contrast to the early part of the war, when Ukraine was flooded with volunteers while Russia was not even able to get the budgeted manpower for its units inside Ukraine.
Also, the Russian volunteers are all ex army and have 6 months retraining on equipment they are familiar with. A large proportion of Ukrainian
conscripts have not had previous military experience and receive much shorter training, in languages they don't fully understand, on an assortment of complex Western weapons.

I think the run rate problem for Russia is not manpower, but hardware. For e.g in 2022, it produced an average of 4000 155mm shells a day but
was consuming close to 20,000. By Sept, it will exhaust its old stocks and even if it doubles production (which is difficult when there is a shortage
of labor in armaments factories, low capacity in machine tools and low capacity for refurbishing gun barrels) it will be able to use 8000 shells/day
with a larger no of units than those that fought in 2022. NATO on the other hand will ramp up production above this figure.
Its the same problem with Aircraft, helicopters and missiles. Losses are more than production.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 25 Jun 2023 20:24

Deans wrote:There is no point recruiting more as there is not enough hardware to equip more motorized rifle battalions. The shortages are in artillery ammunition and barrels, air defense, electronic warfare, drones etc.

in which case NATO will out supply Ru sooner or later?