Road to the 2024 Elections in India-1

[Manish_P]

...
rumor has it that in a few months time, onion merchant will also merge his rump of the party with the BJP and seek cabinet berths for daughter and tobacco merchant

hope that better sense prevails in the BJP

Chetak ji, doubt he will merge his NCP with the BJP.

Like Nitish in bihar he has managed to remain inside the fort in Maharashtra despite not being in power. For now he has got his key men inside the opponent camp. In future elections if the UBT+Cong come in power somehow (freebies/reservations/....) he will have himself/daughter as the king makers and will get the nephew to jump ship again.

Survival of himself, daughter, nephew and the wealth is all that matters. As long his party manages to get enough votes to in a position to bargain he will keep making such moves. The BJPs rise has managed to reduce him to just that - for now.

[A Deshmukh]

with NCP 50 MLAs in BJP camp, there will 50 seats less for BJP to stand in the next MLA elections.
Affects the post elections dynamics.

[Pratyush]

The questions to ask?

1) If people on an internet forum can see all that. Then why are seasoned political operators not able to see that?

2) let's assume, Ajit was pushed to the BJP-SS, by senior Pawar, to improve post election position of the NCP.

But the current dispensation does to Ajit Pawar, what Ajit Pawar was doing to SS before the rebellion from current CM.

Will that not result in destruction of Ajit, as a political operator. By extension it will also damage NCP due to the political infighting as a bonus.

Why is Senior Pawar taking such a risk?

[chetak]

...
rumor has it that in a few months time, onion merchant will also merge his rump of the party with the BJP and seek cabinet berths for daughter and tobacco merchant

hope that better sense prevails in the BJP

Chetak ji, doubt he will merge his NCP with the BJP.

Like Nitish in bihar he has managed to remain inside the fort in Maharashtra despite not being in power. For now he has got his key men inside the opponent camp. In future elections if the UBT+Cong come in power somehow (freebies/reservations/....) he will have himself/daughter as the king makers and will get the nephew to jump ship again.

Survival of himself, daughter, nephew and the wealth is all that matters. As long his party manages to get enough votes to in a position to bargain he will keep making such moves. The BJPs rise has managed to reduce him to just that - for now.

Manish ji,

what is troubling is tobacco, he is the money bags and the repository of all secrets.

There is no way that he would have jumped ship without the express approval of the onion merchant and without a game plan in operation.

this bunch of goondas have been cornered and castled for the moment, and so, they are trying to sacrifice some pawns to safeguard their queen

they need to isolate, bypass, contain and marginalize this character.

there is some deeper game afoot.

[chetak]

with NCP 50 MLAs in BJP camp, there will 50 seats less for BJP to stand in the next MLA elections.
Affects the post elections dynamics.

The BJP will not concede so many seats to these gaddars and rank opportunists


They will not make the KAR mistake all over again because it will also end the same way, with corruption, squabbling, and backstabbing orchestrated by the gaddars

merger is one possible way to insure against betrayal or contest all seats separately with an agreement of post poll alliance.

Don't get trapped into supporting a lose-lose seat sharing situation where they will grab all your best seats leaving you with the no political ROI. If someone does not agree, then simply prop up a "rebel" candidate for the same seat and claim "helplessness" like they all do

But very interestingly, here is the immediate fallout of the MAH upheavals:

The proposed second meeting of opposition parties, excluding the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has been postponed as NCP faces a split. The meeting was initially scheduled to take place in Bengaluru on 13-14 July, but K C Tyagi, the spokesperson for the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)], confirmed the postponement.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... s?from=mdr

The big daddy fox is already inside the chicken coop...... but all opposition parties are strongly suspecting that the eternally self seeking and narcissistic onion merchant has bowled another one of his self confessed "googlies" to manage his preferred line of female familial succession

wonder how many corrupt regional dynasts/satraps are now crapping bricks...

[vish_mulay]

The very fact both p Patel and d walse-patil are revolting suggest old fox is the main sutradhar of this game. These 2 do not even breathe without explicit permission from fox. Something big is happening behind curtains. I just hope BJP is playing it with all eyes ears open.

[Manish_P]

...

what is troubling is tobacco, he is the money bags and the repository of all secrets.

There is no way that he would have jumped ship without the express approval of the onion merchant and without a game plan in operation.

this bunch of goondas have been cornered and castled for the moment, and so, they are trying to sacrifice some pawns to safeguard their queen

they need to isolate, bypass, contain and marginalize this character.

The old guard like Rajmata, onion merchant, secular messiah, socialist samrat ityaadi all are in the last moments in this physical realm. Their worry is their privileged progeny having no real mass connect .. while the actual vote puller ranks are being poached by the big bad sanghis. They are desperately trying to buy time for their progeny by having at least some of the family in the ruling dispensation (via deals) to keep the wealth safe - till the time they think (and hope) that the BIF will again succeed, at least post Modi, in wresting back control - through some descendant of the first family (preferably)- and things can go back to being the way they were

..
there is some deeper game afoot.

That's it Chetak ji, except that the game has been afoot since 2014 (actually even before that)... it is a long boring test match, not a T-20 and we might be just near the end of the second days play now...

The old front-line knights of the BIF being long-in-the-tooth oldies like Sore-eyes made the mistake of thinking that the India (and indians) of today are the same as those of the past century. They feared their monopoly over the control of the India story slipping away and in their desperation made mistakes and got exposed. The current/next gen of BIF, who remain in the shadows, adapted some time back itself, to adopt different & more covert, subtle approaches. One such being social re-engineering using social media to influence the more assertive/aspirational indian youth of today... (like the youth of yore was influenced by the MSM of that time)

[ramana]

I think the NCP formula will be repeated in TN. PTR will be the DMK's Ajit Pawar.
New govt could be DMK(PTR)+ADMK+BJP

[KL Dubey]

Devendra Farnavis is the man of the moment. His carefully plotted revenge complete, he opens up with all details in this excellent interview. Hear it all from the horse's mouth. No need for any more random speculations.

https://youtu.be/3EafjhHK2WY

Farnavis is an excellent politician and administrator, and has been spotted very early by the national leadership.

His unquestioning acceptance of the Dy CM post "demotion", his public statement last week that "a year later I strongly the feel the leadership decided the right thing for me and for MH", and the breakneck speed of goremint work as soon as the NDA came back into power - will have further raised his stock within the BJP and the MH public to very high levels.

Some posters on BRF keep complaining that BJP is not raising enough young leaders. At the same time when people like Farnavis emerge the same posters called him as "David Fernandes" or some other disparaging name because of some stupid/irrelevant issue involving his wife.

[KL Dubey]

The BJP will not concede so many seats to these gaddars and rank opportunists

Yes, the BJP leadership is not a bunch of greenhorns. BJP holds almost all the cards in MH now. It helps to analyze things with facts in hand, instead of converting BRF into a gossip/one-liner message board.

As far as VS is concerned, MH has a huge number of seats: 288. SS led by Shinde is now very pliant, and NCP will also be pliant with a number of ED/CBI cases etc hanging in the background.

At the maximum SS+NCP+other small parties like RPI etc will be given 100 seats that they have a very good chance of winning against INC and UBT, with a large BJP voter support.

BJP will then have 188 seats to contest - which is more than they have ever contested as part of any BJP-SS pre-poll alliance. Already in the last VS election the BJP had an excellent 65% win rate in the 164 seats they contested with some SS voter support. Next time they would have support from SS and NCP voter base, so it's quite possible BJP can get to the halfway mark on its own, just like at the national level.

As far as the upcoming LS, it is difficult to see the INC+UBT+any Charade Pawar rump NCP faction being able to win more than 3-4 seats, and not even 1 seat with ease. Shinde said the same thing yesterday to the media. So it is clear what the LS strategy is for the NDA in MH.

In other words, BJP led by Shah, Adityanath, and Farnavis has consolidated itself in the two most electorally important states of Bharat. If all goes as planned, it will be raining 110-120 LS seats just from UP+MH.

[KL Dubey]

I think the NCP formula will be repeated in TN. PTR will be the DMK's Ajit Pawar.
New govt could be DMK(PTR)+ADMK+BJP

Interesting.

Let's start with LS 2024 election and look at this another way.

The usual pattern for TN in LS elections is a huge one-sided sweep for either DMK+INC (2004, 2009, 2019) or AIADMK (2014).

According to Annamalai, there is now a huge wave of support for Modi and an anti-incumbency wave against DMK. Is this enough to push TN to yet another one-sided sweep, this time towards AIADMK with sizable number of seats for BJP as well?

PTR is highly educated (PhD + MBA), has strong electoral performance, and seems to be doing a good job as a legislator. I'm guessing he is with the DMK crowd because of his family legacy.

And, since "caste" does matter in TN, he is a Mudaliar. I think that community tilts more towards AIADMK and is not a large electoral vote bank - correct me if I am wrong.

The questions are:

- What is the support base of PTR amongst the DMK legislators and the public ? Where is he in the DMK hierarchy ? Can he break away enough of the 133 DMK legislators to avoid disqualification rules ?

- If he really can break away 70-80 DMK legislators, then does he see himself as a highly popular alternative to Stalin - in which case he would form a new party or a DMK faction and fight elections on his own instead of aligning with AIADMK and BJP.

- Or, does he see himself as a more of a technocratic poltoo with good (but not huge) mass following, in which case he and some supporters might go to AIADMK/NDA and bolster its vote share further in the LS 2024. As for BJP, Annamalai seems to be playing games with PTR - on one hand he released the PTR tapes and on the other he attacked Stalin demanding explanation of why such a high performing minister was sacked.

Finally, as I mentioned earlier, it's worth noting that Modi had given PTR a hearty pat on the back right in front of Stalin....just a few days after the PTR tapes were released.

[suryag]

PTR is a technocratic poltoo not much mass support(my armchair knowledge), but one thing that is important is that he comes from a family(his grandfather i believe was one of the founding members of the original justice party. Quite arrogant but could be because he is one of the andhon mein kaana raja types(remember in Thimka you hardly have any graduates leave alone engg graduates and MBAs). Married to a white lady, cannot speak Tamil, can serve well as a national minister(getting things done)

[ramana]

KLD, You are seeing things linearly.
PTR was the only one to highlight the MuKa family corruption.
Senthil Balaji is in trouble only for this.
he can rally those who want a future that is being eroded.
Anyway, this came to my mind.

[chetak]

KLD, You are seeing things linearly.
PTR was the only one to highlight the MuKa family corruption.
Senthil Balaji is in trouble only for this.
he can rally those who want a future that is being eroded.
Anyway, this came to my mind.

PTR was recorded secretly by a female journo. He had no idea. The name of the journo is not out in the public domain because, one suspects that the recording may have been made in compromising circumstances, which again begs the question as to where is the video.

There must be other more damaging revelations that may also be on the same time line as the session(s) and that has forced him to keep quiet

what PTR said was no real secret as it was common knowledge in TN political and also in some media circles. There was also resentment from those who were not allowed to clamber on to the gravy train.

But it was the first time that a recording was made and that too, of an insider, with such a distinctive voice and unique diction. So the recording became viral because it was able to clearly put a face to the voice, and also credibly tie it to the content and contextualize it

VSB (V Senthil Balaji) is in trouble because the SC gave the go head to pursue the case. The case was, may be, over 5 years old, and VSB's lawyers were dilly dallying, using every trick in the book to delay the proceedings, until the SC stepped in

some other guys in VSB's position, in some cases like this, have already been taken out terminally by the dravidians, so this guy is literally in fear of his life.

Sadiq Batcha ( c. 1972 – 16 March 2011) was an Indian entrepreneur and the managing director of real estate company Green House Promoters Private Limited. Sadiq allegedly committed suicide under suspicious circumstances related to the 2G spectrum case in India.

The safest place for VSB's brother is possibly some investigating agency's safe house under govt's protection because it is rumored that he has many incriminating documents hidden away to ensure the his and the VSB familys' safety.

It should not end up like the case of the man (or men) who knew too much....

[chetak]

PTR is a technocratic poltoo not much mass support(my armchair knowledge), but one thing that is important is that he comes from a family(his grandfather i believe was one of the founding members of the original justice party. Quite arrogant but could be because he is one of the andhon mein kaana raja types(remember in Thimka you hardly have any graduates leave alone engg graduates and MBAs). Married to a white lady, cannot speak Tamil, can serve well as a national minister(getting things done)

the guy is a less than mediocre gas bag and certainly not the public service minded, inspired, and innovative govt minister type that is needed at the center

he is certainly not in the same league as Jaishankar, Goyal, or Nirmala Sitharaman, to name a few outsiders and first time ministers who neatly fitted in, and adapted to the BJP and also the nationalist eco system

[chetak]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7qDl6wIkRg


EAM S Jaishankar attends Shyama Prasad Lecture ‘New India and the World’




watch from 2:20 onwards.

Shocking revelations about hostile actions in bad faith by @UN
and western powers, incl #UK, #Belgium, #Canada etc in @DrSJaishankar
full speech.


one of the comments from the youtube link

The drops or glitches in the video recording is intentionally done .. this is West Bengal where even the illegal Muslim migrant gets aadhar and voter ID ...

If this shameless communist government can do such a thing, meddling in the video recording is not a surprise....bloody @holes ... Some islamo-communist guy is there behind this poor video recording...

This is an era of technology, this type of mistakes are at best considered as intentional mistake

[Yagnasri]

Regarding the opinion poll cited above, I was in AP for three days. There is no way YSRCP, i.e. Jagan, can sweep the state as it was projected. Almost everyone I spoke to, including Jagan party workers, said he would lose this time.

It looks like the pollsters here also did a very conservative estimate of BJP seats. At least in Bihar, BJP may do well this time.

[chetak]

Regarding the opinion poll cited above, I was in AP for three days. There is no way YSRCP, i.e. Jagan, can sweep the state as it was projected. Almost everyone I spoke to, including Jagan party workers, said he would lose this time.

It looks like the pollsters here also did a very conservative estimate of BJP seats. At least in Bihar, BJP may do well this time.

So, that's why naidu is excitedly jumping up and down, desperately hoping to cement an alliance with the BJP, and jagan is equally determined to prevent it, perhaps by reminding the BJP of the many past favors done to help them out in the voting in the RS

[vijayk]

This is concerning ...


https://twitter.com/sreemoytalukdar/sta ... 3017709568

Sreemoy Talukdar @sreemoytalukdar

Here's a 2003-grade problem for BJP in 2024. India Shining redux.

Latha Venkatesh @latha_venkatesh

Cars, bikes, homes - all show one common trend : Premium products doing fine; lower segments (like affordable homes, compact cars) slowing sharply!! twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/s…

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status ... 1444812800

Home sales in India have been at the highest since 2013, but have stagnated from yr ago levels & actually fallen for the affordable segment as per @KnightFrank_IN report. @Gulamzia of Knight Frank & Mohit Makhija of CRISIL discuss real estate trends & outlook with
@latha_venkatesh

[A Deshmukh]

the biggest concern/factor for 2024 would be monsoon rains.
going by past trends, whenever rains are bad in an election year, govt has lost.
how the govt handles a bad monsoon will determine the outcome.
with all the insurance schemes and proactive & pro-farmer govt., I would assume they will have contingency plans.

[isubodh]

the biggest concern/factor for 2024 would be monsoon rains.
going by past trends, whenever rains are bad in an election year, govt has lost.
how the govt handles a bad monsoon will determine the outcome.
with all the insurance schemes and proactive & pro-farmer govt., I would assume they will have contingency plans.

Elections will be due in MAY'24 that is not time for monsoon. Even in south monsoon starts by end May starting of June.
Now for 2023 the monsoon so far seems normal and we have July and August still to go.

[VKumar]

Monsoon is about 35% below normal countrywide.
There is also the Rabi crop to come. But groundwater will generally be lower if monsoon isn't normal. Let's pray that rainfall improves to give a normal monsoon.

[hanumadu]

This is concerning ...


https://twitter.com/sreemoytalukdar/sta ... 3017709568

Sreemoy Talukdar @sreemoytalukdar

Here's a 2003-grade problem for BJP in 2024. India Shining redux.

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status ... 1444812800

Home sales in India have been at the highest since 2013, but have stagnated from yr ago levels & actually fallen for the affordable segment as per @KnightFrank_IN report. @Gulamzia of Knight Frank & Mohit Makhija of CRISIL discuss real estate trends & outlook with
@latha_venkatesh

After the boom of the pandemic years where hiring was high and salaries were on a rampage in IT, this year there have been little to no increments according to a cousin and much less hiring. Normal to expect belt tightening. And if US and the world goes into a recession, expect even less spending. Hopefully, Namo has built up a war chest (from fuel taxes mostly) to spend in an election year.

[hanumadu]

Monsoon is about 35% below normal countrywide.
There is also the Rabi crop to come. But groundwater will generally be lower if monsoon isn't normal. Let's pray that rainfall improves to give a normal monsoon.

The prediction is 95% monsoon this year. Hope it will materialize

[ramana]

Properties of terrorists in J&K are being seized

About time.

[chetak]

the writing on the wall has, at last, become clear to him (PS it was always crystal clear to everyone else in the country)

burning bridges: presidential, as well as, prime ministerial.

@EconomicTimes·15h

NCP chief #SharadPawar on Wednesday drew a distinction between #ShivSena's and BJP's Hindutva agenda by stating that Sena's #Hindutva was all encompassing but BJP's was "communal" and "poisonous".

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 524713.cms

[Pratyush]

RaGa appeal rejected by the High Court.

[chetak]

WA

Declassified docs from World Bank in 2010 show:

1. Cong bad policies in 1980s caused 1991 crisis

2. 1991 reforms were the conditions set by World Bank/IMF for letting us beg for the money.

We had no choice. How many people are aware of this?

People foolishly think that MMS brought in the 1991 reforms

In 1980s, Dr. Manmohan Singh was RBI governor and later Deputy Chair of Planning Commission.

So he was responsible for many of the bad policies in the 1980s

Don't credit him for reforms forced by World Bank

He should take blame for the crisis

and once the shackles were broken: the result is there for all to see

[vijayk]

Monsoon is about 35% below normal countrywide.
There is also the Rabi crop to come. But groundwater will generally be lower if monsoon isn't normal. Let's pray that rainfall improves to give a normal monsoon.

The prediction is 95% monsoon this year. Hope it will materialize

[Deans]

Monsoon is about 35% below normal countrywide.
There is also the Rabi crop to come. But groundwater will generally be lower if monsoon isn't normal. Let's pray that rainfall improves to give a normal monsoon.

The prediction is 95% monsoon this year. Hope it will materialize

Our economy is fairly insulated from the monsoon, as there are enough food stocks to prevent high inflation and disaster relief works well.
We will also be the best performing economy in G20 (amidst a global slowdown), but voters need to look at relative performance and not
absolute.

[Atmavik]

^^ thats why Coupta and co are making videos of comparing Indian economy to chinas. this is also widely argued by AAP supporters who conveniently skip the violent protests they engineer in India which is unheard of in china

[Yagnasri]

While I agree that our economy is fairly insulated from monsoons, it will affect voting choices. A hardship must be blamed on someone; normally, the ruling party gets the blame, particularly if it does not care for rural poor and marginal farmers.

[chetak]

Send back my wife, kids: Pak woman Seema Haider’s husband appeals to Modi government

Gulam Haider, the husband of a Pakistani woman Seema Haider who illegally entered India through Nepal to be with a man she met on gaming app PUBG Mobile, made a heartfelt appeal to the Indian government to send his wife and children back to Pakistan

[A Deshmukh]

Our economy is fairly insulated from the monsoon, as there are enough food stocks to prevent high inflation..

Overall economy can absorb shocks, but bad monsoon in 2023 will affect sowing and crop yield, leading to bad rural economy, and negative sentiment in the rural/agri sector affecting votes in 2024

[VKumar]

Bad monsoon will impact Rabi crop due to lower ground water. Government should expedite the construction of more reservoirs and canals.

[vijayk]

There will be no freeze on Centre's Ordinance controlling bureaucrats posted in Delhi, the SC has said today in response to petition by Delhi's AAPi Govt challenging Constitutional VALIDITY of Ordinance. SC has asked Centre to file reply.

[vijayk]

Bad monsoon will impact Rabi crop due to lower ground water. Government should expedite the construction of more reservoirs and canals.

Monsoon rains swing from 10 per cent deficit to surplus in eight days

[krithivas]

The Hindu newspaper complains about the HC verdict on Mr. Rahul Gandhi -
https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editor ... 9NDOze9ITY

[madhu]

News18 Mega Poll: Marriage, Divorce to Inheritance, Muslim Women Support Tenets of UCC

Here are the key findings:

67.2% of all Muslim women surveyed agreed that there should be a common law for all Indians for personal matters such as marriage, divorce, adoption and inheritance. The responses were slightly higher at 68.4% for graduate+ respondents.

76.5% of all Muslim women (graduate+ at 78.6%) disagree with polygamy and say that Muslim men should not have the right to marry four women.

The highest support from women is on the question of equal rights of succession and inheritance of property irrespective of gender — 82.3% overall; 85.7% graduate+.

73.7% of all respondents agree that divorced couples should be allowed to remarry without any restriction.

Although there was agreement on the question of adoption, the percentage of Muslim women agreeing that adoption should be allowed regardless of religion was much lower than the other questions asked in the survey (overall: 64.9%; graduate+: 69.5%).

69.3% of all respondents (73.1% graduate+) agree that all Indians who have attained the age of majority should be free to will away their property as they please.

There is very high support for raising the minimum age for marriage for both men and women to 21. 78.7% of all Muslim women supported increasing the minimum age and 82.4% of graduate+ women agreed.

I am confused with the highlighted point. does that mean 36% of women agree with Mutta and nikka halala? mutta is not followed by Sunni and majority in India are Sunni but what about Halala. are they so blind that they are ok with it just coz it comes in Quran 2.230.

[SRajesh]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/i ... 35906.html
Looks like SC trying to please both the parties??
Though extension termed illegal but CVC act amendment upheld
Probably more brickbats flying around about the 'Caged Bird' type
Doornob will be fun with all the screaming!!