Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[YashG]

Russian commander resigns

Commander of 58th Combined Arms Army of Southern Military District, Major General Ivan Popov (Spartak), wrote down an appeal where he announced his resignation from his post and the reasons for it.

Popov reports that he raised questions about lack of counter-battery combat, artillery reconnaissance stations and supplys, as result, death of Russian soldiers in connection with this.

According to major general, issues raised by him at the highest level led to his lightning resignation in one day.

"Our enemy could not be broken through front of Armed Forces of Russia, we were hit from rear by senior commanders (Alluding to Gerasimov and Shoigu)https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/167 ... 71872?s=20
Treacherously and vilely decapitating army at most difficult and tense moment," Popov summed up.

The 58th CAA is the equivalent of a large corps. It would be commanded by a Lt. Gen. He might be the Chief of staff.
Whatever be the problems he's facing, in the Russian army one is not expected to whine about them, that too in the middle of a war.
He was probably told he can resign if he's not happy.
More worryingly, the Chief of Staff of the Southern front (the 58th army's parent formation) who was a Lt Gen, was killed in a missile strike on
his HQ.

I'd also be inclined to believe these are psyops by CIA. Poking holes in russian military morale is one way they can help. I'd also guess that they are using some of their planted assets in Russia to cook up such incidents. Normally they wouldnt leverage their assets for these things but given US is desperate (resorting to supply clustr bombs) - they are currently ready to go to lengths to engineer some psyops.

[ramana]

https://thestrategybridge.org/the-bridg ... ssumptions

Assessment one year later

[Cyrano]

In an interview with Turkish media, Azov commander reveals that the surrender of the Azov Regiment at Azovstal last year was arranged between the US and Russia in exchange for the withdrawal of several "high-ranking US officers" from the facility.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/91687

Hope Brar_w is reading this. He vehemently denied any such US officers involvement and quit BRF in a huff when we questioned him.

[Jay]

In an interview with Turkish media, Azov commander reveals that the surrender of the Azov Regiment at Azovstal last year was arranged between the US and Russia in exchange for the withdrawal of several "high-ranking US officers" from the facility.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/91687

Hope Brar_w is reading this. He vehemently denied any such US officers involvement and quit BRF in a huff when we questioned him.

Why isn't Russia officially coming and saying this? Everybody knows that US is providing UKR with a lot of expertise in this war, but it's a little questionable on why US would send its forces right into the frontlines of what is a last man standing kind of engagement during the initial months of the war.

[drnayar]

In an interview with Turkish media, Azov commander reveals that the surrender of the Azov Regiment at Azovstal last year was arranged between the US and Russia in exchange for the withdrawal of several "high-ranking US officers" from the facility.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/91687

Hope Brar_w is reading this. He vehemently denied any such US officers involvement and quit BRF in a huff when we questioned him.

He also said US weapons supplies to the Uk ies would be under "safeguards" when i mentioned [under different username] that all those would spill over to continental Europe, middle east and Africa. But his knowledge on american weapons systems is encyclopedic !., second to none. He is missed here anyway., hope he comes back.

[IndraD]

The West needs to prepare for ‘ugly’ Russian victory in Ukraine, which will reward China, leading US political scientist warns
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... -political

[YashG]

The West needs to prepare for ‘ugly’ Russian victory in Ukraine, which will reward China, leading US political scientist warns
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... -political

its ccp controlled media.

[Cyrano]

Agree drnayar, even the much loved urkranians put up more of a fight

[IndraD]

To defeat Russia, Ukraine’s top commander pushes to fight on his terms
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ny-russia/

https://archive.ph/LUV0y
i will fight Ru alone, I don't need Nato , mai aa raha hoon .....
UA top commander in meltdown after Z was chatisised at Nato summit for ingratitude

[Deans]

Russian commander resigns

Commander of 58th Combined Arms Army of Southern Military District, Major General Ivan Popov (Spartak), wrote down an appeal where he announced his resignation from his post and the reasons for it.

Popov reports that he raised questions about lack of counter-battery combat, artillery reconnaissance stations and supplys, as result, death of Russian soldiers in connection with this.

According to major general, issues raised by him at the highest level led to his lightning resignation in one day.

"Our enemy could not be broken through front of Armed Forces of Russia, we were hit from rear by senior commanders (Alluding to Gerasimov and Shoigu)https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/167 ... 71872?s=20
Treacherously and vilely decapitating army at most difficult and tense moment," Popov summed up.

Some info from Russian media:
Gen Popov had actually sent a confidential mail to a Member of the Russian Parliament, who was also the former CO of the 58th Army - he didn't go public with criticism. This MP and former General is a hardliner on the Ukraine war and leaked it to the media.

Maj Gen Popov is fairly junior and recently moved to the 58th Army. More significantly, he was earlier commanding forces in Kharkov region
which conducted a messy withdrawal (after failing to notice a Ukrainian buildup) during last Sept's Ukrainian offensive. So there has been an
instance of panicking under pressure. He probably wanted to lobby with the MP/General for more resources for the 58th Army - which generals have done since the start of recorded military history. He also said he would talk to Putin directly - which in any army would be considered gross insubordination.

His only actual criticism of the army leadership was in lack of counter battery radars (where Russia is actually ahead of Ukraine and has destroyed a lot of US supplied Ukrainian radars) and lack of rotation for his troops (in both cases criticism without having access to the bigger picture).

What would be more concerning to Russians is the disappearance of the popular Gen Surovikin (not seen since 23rd June). The official reason `he is resting' is ridiculous. The Chief of Staff of the Southern front was killed in a missile strike and Gen Popov has now resigned. It is like having our Army Chief, Western Command Chief and CO of a Strike corps suddenly disappearing in the middle of a war with Pak.

[Guddu]

This pertains to the UKr war, but more on NATO.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... nking-nato

[IndraD]

According to the creator of the "Lancets" Alexander Zakharov, he needed a segway to go around all the production shops.
"Two hundred thousand are already ready, another million are on the way" (C).

Not only was the production of well-known kamikaze drones tripled, but the Lancet itself, as expected, "mutated" into its next stage of development - "Izdeliye-53".

According to Alexander Zakharov, a new launcher was made for the new drone, and the kamikaze UAV itself is planned to be used in the Swarm of Drones concept for strikes against group targets: one Lancet, having noticed armored vehicles or their accumulation, transmits information to the rest of the drones, after what they destroy targets.

crests have a new "butt pain"

"Z-Committee" https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/statu ... 37505?s=20

[IndraD]

After Suffering Heavy Losses, Ukrainians Paused to Rethink Strategy
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/15/us/p ... nsive.html

sudden surge of reports of lost equipments of Nato

[YashG]

According to the creator of the "Lancets" Alexander Zakharov, he needed a segway to go around all the production shops.
"Two hundred thousand are already ready, another million are on the way" (C).

....
"Z-Committee" https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/statu ... 37505?s=20

Whatever it may be ...200K is impossible. If they do 1/5th of this - ukraine will be done in 2 months. If 200K is true and it takes something like 1/2 months to get a lot of this in battlefield. Ukrainian defense will be deluged and broken apart

[Rakesh]

Must read Twitter thread of how the West and Ukraine were making claims (dubious) that Russia was running out of weapons.

https://twitter.com/OlgaBazova/status/1 ... 73890?s=20 ---> For over a year now we have been hearing that Russia is losing the war in Ukraine and running out of everything because it can't produce military equipment due to reasons varying from sanctions and isolation to lack of chips and ball bearings.

[ernest]

...
"Two hundred thousand are already ready, another million are on the way" (C).

Whatever it may be ...200K is impossible. If they do 1/5th of this - ukraine will be done in 2 months. If 200K is true and it takes something like 1/2 months to get a lot of this in battlefield. Ukrainian defense will be deluged and broken apart

I think that is the Star Wars reference, not the exact number for the prod line
https://knowyourmeme.com/photos/1725054-prequel-memes

[YashG]

Must read Twitter thread of how the West and Ukraine were making claims (dubious) that Russia was running out of weapons.

https://twitter.com/OlgaBazova/status/1 ... 73890?s=20 ---> For over a year now we have been hearing that Russia is losing the war in Ukraine and running out of everything because it can't produce military equipment due to reasons varying from sanctions and isolation to lack of chips and ball bearings.

While is russia is not running out of arms for sure. But Im very interested to know how true their recent claims of production are. While i have seen sporadic pics of older tanks being transported on trains. I havent seen any yet of a train full of T90s being transported (maybe thrs a good reason why i havent).

If they do get close to 1500 tanks they claim they will produce + anywhere close to drones claimed above = massive shifts in battlefield should start to appear in favor of russia, partly due to emptying of air defence shots by drone armies - leading to ore air superiority for russia - leading to total destruction of supply lines in rear . Recently I saw only one shift towards torske - in direction of lyman. If above is true we should start seeing that happening multiple directions more frequently - since it is true that ukros are by now running low.

[Aditya_V]

Advances are costly, Russia needs Ukraine to Exhaust Ukranian and western resources, much of Europe's cupboard is empty, Artillery, Scalp- Storm Shadow- this the best UK/France are giving up on these, Amraams fired from nasams, Patriot etc.

By having the battles in Eastern Ukraine, Russia is stretching the costs of logistics for the West. Much of the last few hundred Km is by Road, Radars etc using huge quantities of Diesel.

Bakhmut worked very for Russia, since lives of Russian convicts were traded for some of the best Ukranian soldiers. This is an attritional war, August- September are the best time for both sides to gain territory. Lets see what happens? Last year the Russians had gambled with a very small Army in trying to get Ukraine to Negotiate, the West was overconfident by Apr-22, Apr-22 to Dec-22 the West had written of Russia.

Aug-23 and Sep-23 will show who is winning, the final negotiations will happen a year or two after that.

[YashG]

moving against mined defences is very very tough. Russia found it first, then Ukraine. But gaining air superiority and being able to fly bomb trucks unloading iron bombs over logistics/infra hubs is very desirable.

[vijayk]

https://twitter.com/UshaNirmala/status/ ... 0285422593
Russians have been demonstrating exceptional abilities in FPV, space, ai, electronic warfare, SPA/SPAA etc beating the DIC + Big Tech of the west combined.

Eric schmidt interview on CNN

[Deans]

Must read Twitter thread of how the West and Ukraine were making claims (dubious) that Russia was running out of weapons.

https://twitter.com/OlgaBazova/status/1 ... 73890?s=20 ---> For over a year now we have been hearing that Russia is losing the war in Ukraine and running out of everything because it can't produce military equipment due to reasons varying from sanctions and isolation to lack of chips and ball bearings.

I have moved some of my writing on Ukraine and topics like Pak & China to a blog: rpdeans.blogspot.com
My most recent article deals with artillery ammo for Russia. I argue that Russia can sustain their current consumption rate, while Ukraine can't.
Please visit/follow and comment. The articles are intended as inputs for those who can influence policy, but it won't be credible unless there is some following.

[Deans]

Must read Twitter thread of how the West and Ukraine were making claims (dubious) that Russia was running out of weapons.

https://twitter.com/OlgaBazova/status/1 ... 73890?s=20 ---> For over a year now we have been hearing that Russia is losing the war in Ukraine and running out of everything because it can't produce military equipment due to reasons varying from sanctions and isolation to lack of chips and ball bearings.

While is russia is not running out of arms for sure. But Im very interested to know how true their recent claims of production are. While i have seen sporadic pics of older tanks being transported on trains. I havent seen any yet of a train full of T90s being transported (maybe thrs a good reason why i havent).

If they do get close to 1500 tanks they claim they will produce + anywhere close to drones claimed above = massive shifts in battlefield should start to appear in favor of russia, partly due to emptying of air defence shots by drone armies - leading to ore air superiority for russia - leading to total destruction of supply lines in rear . Recently I saw only one shift towards torske - in direction of lyman. If above is true we should start seeing that happening multiple directions more frequently - since it is true that ukros are by now running low.

Russia produced about 200 T-90s last year and has slightly upped production in 2023 (24 hour production instead of 16).
They are also refurbishing old T-72 tanks to be in line with the latest variant. (approx. 250 tanks refurbished in 2022).
There is an additional plant which is both producing and refurbishing T-80s. (probably a combined total of 30-40 tanks/ month).

There was at least 1 clip on Russian TV which showed Shoigu visiting a newly raised unit with a large number of new T-90s.

Older tanks are being used not because Russia is running out of tanks, but because Russia has large stocks of 115mm shells, that can be
used in the T-64 tank. These tanks are being used as artillery in a direct fire mode.

[Pratyush]

What Russians need to do is standardise production of new arms. Not continue to build a zoo of equipment.

Upgrades are fine.

Ie.

1) Focus entire energy on production of T 90.

2) BMP 3.

3) focus on object 305 ATGM.

4). Use the oldest equipment on the battlefield till it ca no longer be used. Then replace it with new kit. Especially artillery.

[Pratyush]

The problem is that the western nations can keep drip feeding ammunition to Ukraine for an indefinite period.

[Deans]

The problem is that the western nations can keep drip feeding ammunition to Ukraine for an indefinite period.

Yes. For Russia to win, Ukraine has to run out of willing soldiers, before Russia runs out of armaments. I see a brief window (Aug-Sept) when Ukraine's firepower per unit and manpower on the front line, relative to Russia are both at their lowest since the start of the war. Russia will need to make a limited offensive then, to take more territory, which is defensible and then fight a defensive war for longer than the West stays interested.

[Deans]

What Russians need to do is standardise production of new arms. Not continue to build a zoo of equipment.

Upgrades are fine.

Ie.

1) Focus entire energy on production of T 90.

2) BMP 3.

3) focus on object 305 ATGM.

4). Use the oldest equipment on the battlefield till it ca no longer be used. Then replace it with new kit. Especially artillery.

Pratyush ji, This is broadly what Russia is doing.

They are making and refurbishing T-80s in addition to T-90's because that plant is readily available and they have 3000 old T-80s in stock.
They probably do not have the tooling to convert it into a T-90 plant. It is also easier to recall retired workers to the plant who know the
tank, as well as veteran crews who are comfortable operating them.

All the new BMPs are 3s.

They have lost mostly older equipment (e.g. mostly old T-72s). Also, a lot of old towed 152mm artillery has served as `barrel donors' for the
new SP 152mm guns.

[Pratyush]

The defence secretary of UK has put in his papers.

[IndraD]

Ukraine and the West are facing a devastating defeat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/0 ... ng-defeat/
Imagine this uvaach from UK press where Boris is sub editor

[IndraD]

Swap Ukraine territory for Nato membership, says former presidential adviser of Ukraine https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... embership/

[IndraD]

Foreign mercenaries hit in Kharkiv. That explains the unusual airplane activity today.

Report:
“Last night in Kharkiv, two missiles hit the dormitory of the Law Academy of Yaroslav the Wise (Dinamovskaya St., 4).”

The facility was a temporary accommodation for foreign mercenaries. Immediately after the strikes, several ambulances arrived on the territory of the building.

It is claimed that up to 30 mercenaries were killed or wounded.”

— source Ukraine guide
https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1 ... 46977?s=20

[IndraD]

Kharkiv the prize catch?
Russia gathers 100,000 soldiers near Kupyansk, Kyiv reports https://tvpworld.com/71356123/russia-ga ... iv-reports

[YashG]

has this been posted here before?

I find this youtube channel quite useful : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nX33gP-h48k

There are multiple analysis on the channel. Part of my reading from this analysis has been that Ukraine is still hitting deep into russian lines & fortifications with artillery or drones. I'd like to believe that this should have no longer been the case since russia has EW-fried the ukrainian drones and have far larger number of artillery to expend - so ideally Russian should have been sanitising well some 15-20 kms away from their lines.

I'd inclined to believe that nato satellite intel is still helping Ukrainians to find deep targets of interest in russian areas and this ISR quality exceeds russian ISR. Probably Russian will have to up their game on this front via probably new lancet drones they are producing and more SEAD/DEAD missions.

[Deans]

has this been posted here before?

I find this youtube channel quite useful : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nX33gP-h48k

His channel is quite good and being a Russian speaker, he uses Russian sources.
However, his numbers (quoting the Russian MOD) are ridiculous. I have debunked them in my blog.
He's not served in the military. When he sticks to facts he's good, but not when he speculates on strategy.

The problem with ammo dumps (like the one hit in Crimea) is that you cannot keep them secret indefinitely. Any Ukraine supporter can
send the location (Ukraine has an app for that). Russia has been dispersing ammo dumps and keeping them out of HIMARS range (but not out of drone range). If you keep them further back, you need more trucks to transport them. Russia does not have the no of trucks required for a war on this
scale.

[IndraD]

what is you blog site Deans saar

[Anant]

what is you blog site Deans saar

From his earlier post:

rpdeans.blogspot.com

It has a certain slant to it but he's a good writer and I enjoyed reading some of it. Most here are very pro-Russian. I am not so I read it in small doses.

[IndraD]

Russia has announced naval blockade of Odessa port

Telegram channel "Resident": "Our source in the Office of the President said that the Office of the President, with the support of British intelligence, is developing a plan for the passage of dry cargo ships to the ports of the Odessa region. Now negotiations are underway with private companies to purchase several ships that should symbolically go to Odessa and provoke Russia to attack, if dry cargo ships pass quietly, then Ukraine will declare the safety of the grain corridor. At the same time, the option of attacking civilian ships will allow Ukraine to organize an international campaign against Russia." https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/16 ... 45154?s=20

[YashG]

His channel is quite good and being a Russian speaker, he uses Russian sources.
However, his numbers (quoting the Russian MOD) are ridiculous. I have debunked them in my blog.
He's not served in the military. When he sticks to facts he's good, but not when he speculates on strategy.

The problem with ammo dumps (like the one hit in Crimea) is that you cannot keep them secret indefinitely. Any Ukraine supporter can
send the location (Ukraine has an app for that). Russia has been dispersing ammo dumps and keeping them out of HIMARS range (but not out of drone range). If you keep them further back, you need more trucks to transport them. Russia does not have the no of trucks required for a war on this
scale.

Good to know, I found his tagging the locations with actual action videos coming out of theatre useful to understand whats happening on frontlines.

yes hitting & saving the ammo dumps is cat & mouse game. But overtime Russia would find ways to dilute or nullify nato ISR effects.

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/ ... 37345?s=20 ---> Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Ignat on why air defense was unable to destroy any of the 7 x P-800 Onyx (Oniks) Russian missiles that targeted Odesa today: "Ukraine do not yet have the ability to shoot them down, since the missile flies at a speed of more than 3,000 km/h."

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/ ... 37121?s=20 ---> Ignat: When approaching a target, Onyx can fly at a height of 10-15 m above the water.

[Jayram]

This is a great unbiased summary of the offensive operations from a western perspective. A grinding stalemate acting much against Ukraine objectives. Russians effectively countering everything Ukraine is throwing at them for now.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/sobering-an ... 2771.html

[Yagnasri]

Not unbiased. Does not mention the Russian Air Force, Drones, etc. Does not mention Russian advantage in armour. Before the war started, the ukn had the second-biggest army in Europe. The entire forces were destroyed now. The training was given from 2014 to these forces. What happened to all that? Can not do large-level combined arms manoeuvres? How many years of training will it take to do such things? Do ukn have such time? Writers toss up words like "Soviet" in the middle to create a feeling that this is a significant weakness of the Russians. Shows how the typical thinking has not changed. Ukns have excellent officers? Really? Most of their officers had died or seriously injured as of today. Undoubtedly, poorly trained and equipped ukn armed forces personnel are doing what they can. We shall all acknowledge that. But they are just being fed to the Russian forces senselessly.