Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[Pratyush]

If Lancet is so effective, then why does Ukrainian still has so many NATO supplied howitzers on the battlefield.

The kill chain should have been simple.

Counter battery radar picks up the gun firing.

Russian army fires Lancet in general direction. With a specific location as target. Locate and kill the gun.

[Deans]

Not unbiased. Does not mention the Russian Air Force, Drones, etc. Does not mention Russian advantage in armour. Before the war started, the ukn had the second-biggest army in Europe. The entire forces were destroyed now. The training was given from 2014 to these forces. What happened to all that? Can not do large-level combined arms manoeuvres? How many years of training will it take to do such things? Do ukn have such time? Writers toss up words like "Soviet" in the middle to create a feeling that this is a significant weakness of the Russians. Shows how the typical thinking has not changed. Ukns have excellent officers? Really? Most of their officers had died or seriously injured as of today. Undoubtedly, poorly trained and equipped ukn armed forces personnel are doing what they can. We shall all acknowledge that. But they are just being fed to the Russian forces senselessly.

I think these reports are setting up the Ukrainians to take the blame for the failed counter offensive.
The US narrative will be - we gave you all the weapons you wanted. It's not our fault you cannot to combined arms warfare, despite our
training, because of your Soviet style habits.

[Cyrano]

Swap Ukraine territory for Nato membership, says former presidential adviser of Ukraine https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... embership/

Arestyovych doesn't know his ass from his mouth. Not that it matters when both deliver the same output. If the western MSM is quoting him, it means they are clueless, the NATO has no cards left to play and the Russians will dictate terms when they want to.

[Cyrano]

what is you blog site Deans saar

From his earlier post:

rpdeans.blogspot.com

It has a certain slant to it but he's a good writer and I enjoyed reading some of it. Most here are very pro-Russian. I am not so I read it in small doses.

Anand bhai,
We aren't necessarily pro-Russian, we are definitely pro-Indian.
Keep reading and hang on here, its never too late for a change of mind or should I say, slant

[Anant]

Cyrano sir,

It's Anant by the way but natural mistake. I am pro-Indian as well. All I will say to you is that I do not condone the killing of civilians and the associated barbarism that comes with it, whether it is done by Russia or the United States of America. I was equally vociferous condemning US action in numerous global hotspots and what Russia is doing is not justifiable either. Ultimately, the chickens come home to roost. Everything reaches equilibrium. It is just an issue of time and body count. If it is your hypothesis that Russia emerges from this conflict better off, I am sorry to say that we will never agree.

[YashG]

If Lancet is so effective, then why does Ukrainian still has so many NATO supplied howitzers on the battlefield.

The kill chain should have been simple.

Counter battery radar picks up the gun firing.

Russian army fires Lancet in general direction. With a specific location as target. Locate and kill the gun.

Lancets are probably effective but russia doesnt have enough of them yet. I think thats the case with a lot of other russia stuff. I have expressed my view before that if russia is producing thousands of Lancets then they will soon start to break ukrainian hardware apart and it will show up in battlefield results. Those successes will show up well.

[YashG]

there is a podcast Saigon, 1965 by Malcolm gladwell that talks about a RAND study that analysed vietcong prisoners to understand how far they will go in resisting US. The conclusion of this study was to help US take a measured approach in vietnam.

Guess what? The podcast analyses and concludes that 3 researchers involved took 2000+ interviews and came to different conclusions. What US defence policy wons took out from this study is that vietcong will be broken if enough force is applied. So they did. Years later, the real conclusion of this study was that US system had issues of echochambers in policy & defence circles, which prevented US from exiting Vietnam much earlier.


Sounds familiar isnt it ?

[Deans]

If Lancet is so effective, then why does Ukrainian still has so many NATO supplied howitzers on the battlefield.

The kill chain should have been simple.

Counter battery radar picks up the gun firing.

Russian army fires Lancet in general direction. With a specific location as target. Locate and kill the gun.

Lancets are probably effective but russia doesnt have enough of them yet. I think thats the case with a lot of other russia stuff. I have expressed my view before that if russia is producing thousands of Lancets then they will soon start to break ukrainian hardware apart and it will show up in battlefield results. Those successes will show up well.

RUSI has a good article on how Russian artillery has evolved during this conflict.
Earlier, drones were controlled by Brigade HQ. It took 2-3 hours between locating a target and giving an artillery battery instructions to hit it.
With more drones, control is now with the battery commander (Major) and the time is reduced to minutes.

Russia has started deploying gun locating radars based on sound (not radar which has the risk of anti radar missiles targeting it). This has made a real difference but there are still not enough of these.
Even last summer, it was estimated that 90% of Ukrainian drones were being shot down or jammed. The life of re-usable drone was 3 missions.
Things have only got worse for Ukraine since then. The figures are much better for the Russians, but it must still be assumed that half their drone will not survive a mission. Almost all artillery is self propelled, so even a few mins delay lets the gun get away to a new location - the drone usually gets shot down if it tracks the target for more than a few secs.

[RamSuresh]

If it is your hypothesis that Russia emerges from this conflict better off, I am sorry to say that we will never agree.

Russia did not have a choice of status quo. If they had sat quiet, they would have been worse off. So, yes, relatively, Russia will come better off than it would have been if it hadn't fought.

It is Ukraine which will come worse off than it would have been had it settled with Russia.

[Pratyush]

If it is your hypothesis that Russia emerges from this conflict better off, I am sorry to say that we will never agree.

It doesn't matter what you will agree with or won't.

What matters is the overall aim of the two sides.

If the Russians accomplish their war aims. They will be better off then they would have been, if they didn't go to war.

If the war ends with Russians losing. Then they will be exactly where they would have been, if they didn't go to war.

In order to understand the Russian war aims. Start with Putin's letter to Biden in December 2021 and read the verbatim translation of his opening speach of the war.

He had listed 4 distinct war aims. Find out what they were.

One more thing, the Russians didn't set any deadline for the achievement of their aims.

Second thing, find out why did Boris Johnson visit Kiev on 1st of April 22. That will tell you more about what this war is all about.

Third, the most ironic point of the war.

A Russian victory is in western interest. Because that will still leave a Russia capable of saying no to PRC.

A defeated Russia will not have that choice.

[Anant]

If it is your hypothesis that Russia emerges from this conflict better off, I am sorry to say that we will never agree.

It doesn't matter what you will agree with or won't.

What matters is the overall aim of the two sides.

If the Russians accomplish their war aims. They will be better off then they would have been, if they didn't go to war.

If the war ends with Russians losing. Then they will be exactly where they would have been, if they didn't go to war.

In order to understand the Russian war aims. Start with Putin's letter to Biden in December 2021 and read the verbatim translation of his opening speach of the war.

He had listed 4 distinct war aims. Find out what they were.

One more thing, the Russians didn't set any deadline for the achievement of their aims.

Second thing, find out why did Boris Johnson visit Kiev on 1st of April 22. That will tell you more about what this war is all about.

Third, the most ironic point of the war.

A Russian victory is in western interest. Because that will still leave a Russia capable of saying no to PRC.

A defeated Russia will not have that choice.

Two things.
1. The current conflict will not remain limited to Ukraine for much longer.
2. Russia is already a Chinese stooge and will discard India in short order.

[sanman]

Russia will start using its S-70 stealth UCAV

[RoyG]

Two things.
1. The current conflict will not remain limited to Ukraine for much longer.
2. Russia is already a Chinese stooge and will discard India in short order.

Anant,

This is not the case. The Russians are a junior partner to China but every partner hedges and works to contain the senior. The current conflict was not limited to Ukraine from the start.

[YashG]

This war will go on (unless russia wins) for another year or even more. John Mearsheimer says Ukraine will become a rump economy. In my geopolitics thread I wrote how reconstruction cost required for Ukraine to rebuild Ukraine for a positive growth trajectory will require war funds that West cannot commit.
So Ukraine is worse off even if it wins.

West is better off in short term but worse off in long term in the sense that this war has set into motion the demise of USD and taken off the veil off partisan western institutions that helped them dominate the world ( world bank, ICC, shipping councils, SWIFT etc.)

Russia will be worse off only if it loses.

China is better off (a) Because west has spent its political/economic/military capital on fighting Russia and it will take them a while to recuperate. (b) Russia is closer to china

India is better off (a) Destruction of western economies have shown has made India the only bright spot on globe (b) Primacy of infantry is established so well that looking at Ukraine war it looks like China will have hard time in achieving anything against India

[Arima]

Ukraine war ending and peace will not come until govt in at least 2 countries in France, Germany, UK and US change and take a stand 180 degree to what current govt is pursuing.

Ukraine and Poles will be urged via piece meal weapons, tonne of money to run the war at the expense of Ukrainian blood.

for Russia they are not showing any hurry to finish it 1 due to there internal army organizational, production and political compulsions and second avg 500+ Ukrainian is dying everyday with minimal loss on there side comparatively.

[IndraD]

At the moment, Ukrainian lines are broken to the southeast of Svatove and Russia is advancing quickly towards the Oskil line https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status ... 36512?s=20
Ru seems to have broken Ukr defence lines in one particular direction

[IndraD]

Ukraine’s counter-offensive is failing, with no easy fixes
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/0 ... asy-fixes/

https://archive.ph/wCWsp

[Lisa]

Has anyone any reliable experience with this twitter account,

https://twitter.com/pati_marins64/statu ... 2809604096

"For example, Kurganmashzavod had around 1,700 workers but hired another 1,000 last year and another 1,200 recently.

During the last few months, the Russian industry has delivered dozens of helicopters and jets to African countries like Mali, Uganda, Togo, and Zimbabwe. This suggests that any shortage of electronics is in the past.

Recently, Uralvagonzavod set 100% of its production exclusively for tanks,while Omsktransmash isn't producing tanks anymore and has instead shifted its focus to the Tos-1 and the modernization of T80s and T62Ms, as well as some artillery, including the D30, 2s4, and 2s5.

Kurganmashzavod is working intensely on IFVs like the BMP3M, and at least five repair armored plants are refurbishing other IFVs and APCs. Uraltransmash is producing Akatsiya, Malka, and Msta S artillery and has already delivered two batches of Msta S this year.

The number of missiles launched against Kiev is another example of the kick in production for the Russian aerospace industry.

All evidence suggests that the Russian military complex can produce/refurbish many hundreds of tanks and probably thousands of IFVs, APCs, and artilleries annually.We must consider 14 units producing (not including the units working in indirect production like the "techzavods")."

[IndraD]

About this in the West media, not a murmur. The entire Ukrainian armored division surrendered to the Russians without firing a shot. 28 Leopard 2A4 tanks; 21 PT-91 tanks, 8 Krab guns, and 30 T-72 tanks. Armored and mechanized units also use 1,098 BWP-1 infantry fighting vehicles. https://twitter.com/TomatkaP/status/168 ... 61440?s=20 video

[Jay]

About this in the West media, not a murmur. The entire Ukrainian armored division surrendered to the Russians without firing a shot. 28 Leopard 2A4 tanks; 21 PT-91 tanks, 8 Krab guns, and 30 T-72 tanks. Armored and mechanized units also use 1,098 BWP-1 infantry fighting vehicles. https://twitter.com/TomatkaP/status/168 ... 61440?s=20 video

Fake news...It's an old video. I saw this more than a few ago with the title "ukr/rus prisoner exchange"

Starts at 40 second mark...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nl2Dtu-lIUU

[YashG]

Has anyone any reliable experience with this twitter account,

https://twitter.com/pati_marins64/statu ... 2809604096

I tried searching for this person beyond twitter. Somebody who is making this kind of claims - should be someone with some level of expertise and a real profile beyond twitter. But I found none - So I'm inclined to think that this person doesnt exist beyong twitter. Therefore cant believe what this handle says.

[Deans]

Has anyone any reliable experience with this twitter account,

https://twitter.com/pati_marins64/statu ... 2809604096

"For example, Kurganmashzavod had around 1,700 workers but hired another 1,000 last year and another 1,200 recently.

During the last few months, the Russian industry has delivered dozens of helicopters and jets to African countries like Mali, Uganda, Togo, and Zimbabwe. This suggests that any shortage of electronics is in the past.

Recently, Uralvagonzavod set 100% of its production exclusively for tanks,while Omsktransmash isn't producing tanks anymore and has instead shifted its focus to the Tos-1 and the modernization of T80s and T62Ms, as well as some artillery, including the D30, 2s4, and 2s5.

Kurganmashzavod is working intensely on IFVs like the BMP3M, and at least five repair armored plants are refurbishing other IFVs and APCs. Uraltransmash is producing Akatsiya, Malka, and Msta S artillery and has already delivered two batches of Msta S this year.

The number of missiles launched against Kiev is another example of the kick in production for the Russian aerospace industry.

All evidence suggests that the Russian military complex can produce/refurbish many hundreds of tanks and probably thousands of IFVs, APCs, and artilleries annually.We must consider 14 units producing (not including the units working in indirect production like the "techzavods")."

Actual production figures are a state secret and anyone claiming to know them is talking rubbish. At best there are official figures (cross referenced) and estimates based on data that is verified.

Vagon = heavy vehicle. Zavod = factory. Uralvagonzavod is a tank factory in the Urals. Everyone in that town will be associated in one way or another with the armaments plant. They would be conditioned from childhood not to talk about production figures and not to talk to outsiders at all.

There is actual data on purchase orders given to these plants and the output in previous years. One can do a rough estimate of what these plants can produce if they run 24 hours. UVZ produced and refurbished more that half Russia's tanks and their output was 200 new T-90 tanks last year.
There was a manpower shortage across all Russian armaments plants even before the war. This is exacerbated because of mobilization. Its not easy to increase production unless they improve productivity (which has happened during national emergencies) or recall retired workers and switch
them from the civilian sector. The other possible constraint is western electronics.

There is a difference between giving Africa a bare bones Mi-8 helicopter and producing a KA-52 attack helicopter with Electronic counter measures.
There is a problem in producing the latter.

[Deans]

An interesting bit of data from Russian sources.

Until Sept 22, there were less than 10 strikes a day of Lancet drones. (drone hitting the target).
In June, there were 55 and so far in July, 89. A 10 fold increase from last year.

[YashG]

^^^
On twitterverse there was a video of lancet hitting troops. With someone implying that this is due to 10X reduction in cost + Increase in supplies.

Lancets + Russian EW will change this war a lot. Also lancets will mostly be able to procure all the electronics needed for production from china. While KA52s or T90 electronics may still need some niche electronics, lancets components can be mass imported from China (and that is probably happening).

Out commission-khor MoD babus, inept defence planners should know - chinese mass production of drones will take out our infantry advantage in a war with china.

[NRao]

[RoyG]

^^^
On twitterverse there was a video of lancet hitting troops. With someone implying that this is due to 10X reduction in cost + Increase in supplies.

Lancets + Russian EW will change this war a lot. Also lancets will mostly be able to procure all the electronics needed for production from china. While KA52s or T90 electronics may still need some niche electronics, lancets components can be mass imported from China (and that is probably happening).

Out commission-khor MoD babus, inept defence planners should know - chinese mass production of drones will take out our infantry advantage in a war with china.

While the general trend is the increase employment of unmanned systems like kamikaze drones, there are many factors which will determine their use in the Himalayan theatre. Terrain, altitude, troop deployment, countermeasures, tactics etc. will decide their effectiveness. So far, Indian security planners seem to have determined that stand off precision weapons will be far more effective in degrading Chinese logistics, bases and launching pads, communication nodes which will increase the pressure exponentially on the capability of their troops operating in forward areas to prosecute the war. Larger numbers of these troops can also be taken out with wider area effect weapons like guided shells and rockets. Our strategy is to end the war quick and not get bogged down to the point where we are nibbling land here and there. Different theatre, different tactics.

[Manish_P]

^ The same will apply to the chinese as well

The same was true for manned aircraft when the thinking was (is) that their aircraft can't take off with full loads from the high altitudes. The response has been them building longer runways, striving to make more capable engines, getting more tankers to act as air to air refuellers.

Similarly they will keep improving their drone capabilities, and tactics which might include launching them from motherships (manned or otherwise)

[RoyG]

^ The same will apply to the chinese as well

The same was true for manned aircraft when the thinking was (is) that their aircraft can't take off with full loads from the high altitudes. The response has been them building longer runways, striving to make more capable engines, getting more tankers to act as air to air refuellers.

Similarly they will keep improving their drone capabilities, and tactics which might include launching them from motherships (manned or otherwise)

Russian theatre is now largely static on flat terrain. Mobility will be very limited in the mountains and infrastructure will be more reinforced. Drones will be used but their scope and capability will be different in a mountain theatre. Almost everything is harder when you’re fighting at higher altitudes and uneven rocky terrain with very little cover from vegetation.

[YashG]

You can argue all variables will not be same but massive domestic drone production capacities are required. From chips, optics to final fabrication - all components need to be domestically produced and in massive amounts.

During war chips will not be supplied to India in numbers it will need. That kind of production capacity doesnt exist out of china/taiwan. IN Soko or Japan, a little.

Anyways these posts should be in india-china border thread.

[Manish_P]

..
Russian theatre is now largely static on flat terrain. Mobility will be very limited in the mountains and infrastructure will be more reinforced. Drones will be used but their scope and capability will be different in a mountain theatre. Almost everything is harder when you’re fighting at higher altitudes and uneven rocky terrain with very little cover from vegetation.

Agreed. Not debating your statement. What i mean is that the chinese will adapt their drone product range & tactics for high altitude warfare accordingly on the Himalayan front.

And their manufacturing capabilities of large scale will stand them in good stead.

[Pratyush]

The biggest lesson of the war is the absolute value of small and cheap commercial drones.

Such drones are the real game changers for both sides. The Ukrainians are said to be loosing about 10000 such drones each month.

Drones fitted with day and night sights coupled with lazer rangefinder/ designator integrated with arty. They are the reason why the going is slow.

[vijayk]

Met some people from Ireland. Many ukranians who went to Ireland report horrifying images of girls being kidnapped by Polish thugs in border areas for trafficking. Many people lost all their savings.

[RoyG]

You can argue all variables will not be same but massive domestic drone production capacities are required. From chips, optics to final fabrication - all components need to be domestically produced and in massive amounts.

During war chips will not be supplied to India in numbers it will need. That kind of production capacity doesnt exist out of china/taiwan. IN Soko or Japan, a little.

Anyways these posts should be in india-china border thread.

I was responding to your assertion about erosion of infantry advantage with respect to China. Design, production, and procurement are different issues.

[RoyG]

The biggest lesson of the war is the absolute value of small and cheap commercial drones.

Such drones are the real game changers for both sides. The Ukrainians are said to be loosing about 10000 such drones each month.

Drones fitted with day and night sights coupled with lazer rangefinder/ designator integrated with arty. They are the reason why the going is slow.

You bring up an important point regarding drone losses. We are working on jamming and other capabilities to take out drones. Can you post the source of your data point regarding the Ukrainian drone losses.

A lot of the losses based on watching battle footage seems to be coming from jerry rigged free fall munitions into dug outs and trenches

[YashG]

https://twitter.com/pati_marins64/statu ... 8311168003

he Russian Lancets are effective, but we're not seeing the whole picture.

The 40km range of the Lancets is suitable for the local communication network, and this is the exact problem. When the drone detects an enemy unit, it has to send the coordinates to the central command, where they assign the nearest drone battery.

At this phase, they are limited to working with units only a few kilometers away and under the Azart system.

Alternatively, they can use radios with a higher range and have the allies listening to their conversations. But the range of these are shorter than the Lancets, what keep the limitation.
This is how they pass coordinates to Russian artillery, what is a enormous vulnerability which the Russian army is working to improve

This situation limits the usage of the drones to a few areas of the frontlines.

And This is why Ukrainian artillery is working intensely across other areas of the battlefront without a efficient counter battery fire from Russian side.

Ukraine is also showing high efficiency with its counter battery fire, which I will write about in a few hours. Is coherent to say that if the Russians do not improve their communication fastly - what I don't believe -, the Ukrainian counter batteries can surely expand their coverage.

Not sure about the authenticity of this handle but this stuff does not sound amateurish. I have questioned it myself but to even fabricate something like this you have to be knowing something. It does give a possible reason on why lancet may not overnight change the battlefield even if Russia had them in thousands.

[Deans]

https://twitter.com/pati_marins64/statu ... 8311168003

he Russian Lancets are effective, but we're not seeing the whole picture.

Not sure about the authenticity of this handle but this stuff does not sound amateurish. I have questioned it myself but to even fabricate something like this you have to be knowing something. It does give a possible reason on why lancet may not overnight change the battlefield even if Russia had them in thousands.

The lancet is a suicide drone, not a observation platform for artillery.
There was a problem last year with the time it took for a target to be identified and Russian artillery to be tasked to hit it. This had nothing
to do with lancet drones.

Russian counter battery fire has improved due to 2 innovations:
1. Penicillin Acoustic thermal detection system (can't be detected on radar) &
2. An integrated fire control system that collates observation from drones, humans, aircraft etc and assigns missions to batteries.

Patricia is a techie, but with no military experience. The posts are technically informative, but may be missing the larger picture on the battlefield.

[Pratyush]

You bring up an important point regarding drone losses. We are working on jamming and other capabilities to take out drones. Can you post the source of your data point regarding the Ukrainian drone losses.

A lot of the losses based on watching battle footage seems to be coming from jerry rigged free fall munitions into dug outs and trenches

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... on-ukraine

19, May 2023

Russian tactics are changing as lessons are learned from military failures in the war in Ukraine.

Executive Summary
The scale of Russian losses in 2022, combined with the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation confronting NATO systems they had not previously contended with, has caused a significant deviation in Russian operations from the country’s doctrine. This report seeks to outline how Russian forces have adapted their tactics in the Ukrainian conflict and the challenges this has created for the Ukrainian military that must be overcome. The report examines Russian military adaptation by combat function.

Russian infantry tactics have shifted from trying to deploy uniform Battalion Tactical Groups as combined arms units of action to a stratified division by function into line, assault, specialised and disposable troops. These are formed into task-organised groupings. Line infantry are largely used for ground holding and defensive operations. Disposable infantry are used for continuous skirmishing to either identify Ukrainian firing positions, which are then targeted by specialised infantry, or to find weak points in Ukrainian defences to be prioritised for assault. Casualties are very unevenly distributed across these functions. The foremost weakness across Russian infantry units is low morale, which leads to poor unit cohesion and inter-unit cooperation.

Russian engineering has proven to be one of the stronger branches of the Russian military. Russian engineers have been constructing complex obstacles and field fortifications across the front. This includes concrete reinforced trenches and command bunkers, wire-entanglements, hedgehogs, anti-tank ditches, and complex minefields. Russian mine laying is extensive and mixes anti-tank and victim-initiated anti-personnel mines, the latter frequently being laid with multiple initiation mechanisms to complicate breaching. These defences pose a major tactical challenge to Ukrainian offensive operations.
. Ukrainian UAV losses remain at approximately 10,000 per month. [LRussian EW is also apparently achieving real time interception and decryption of Ukrainian Motorola 256-bit encrypted tactical communications systems, which are widely employed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/sp ... 20experts.

July 21, 2023

From the article

Ukraine is now losing about 10,000 drones a month, according to a May report on the conflict from the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based defense research body. One lesson for foreign militaries studying the conflict is that drones should be plentiful and cheap, according to military experts.

[Deans]

Part 3 of my Ukraine war blog is done. rpdeans.blogspot.com

[YashG]

^^^

[YashG]

Part 3 of my Ukraine war blog is done. rpdeans.blogspot.com

I read it ...a numbers based narrative is what is needed in the debate on this topic. I liked you article because it adds numbers to the narrative. Not even the best publishing houses are not using any numbers to base their narrative on.