Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 27 Aug 2023 12:44

drnayar wrote: ↑27 Aug 2023 00:32
Cyrano wrote: ↑26 Aug 2023 02:54
Other than that are there any good reasons why Ukr is so anally focused on F16s only? Why not some other NATO fighter?
LM wants a few F16s shot down [preferably all ] so that all those countries flying F16can justify billions in moving to the F35s

This is definitely not True, the US system bent over backwards to hide Amraams missing SU30mki/ Mig 21 Bison and Mig 21 Bison shooting down a F16. F16's will fly only over Ukraine controlled territory, so F16's shotdown can be hidden.

Supply of F16 does a few things for the US.

1. Get rid surplus old F16s from the market. So only new F16's are sold to countries lower budget
2. Ukraine is running out of Soviet era fighters, and US is not able to supply any more, Azerbhaijan, Eastern Europe have given all thier former Soviet aircraft.Europe is emptying it's limited stock of Taurus, Storm Shadow, Scalp etc. So it mean that the Eurofighter fleet will become less important. So UK, Germany and Western Europe will start using F35s with high maintenance costs and munitions
3. Due to all.this apart from probably France. Western Europe MIC will wind down. Eurofighters will also retiring early. USA will have captive markets and lesser competition in the next 2 decades.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 29 Aug 2023 19:07

My analysis of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in my blog:
rpdeans.blogspot.com
(Google - DeansMusings)

I believe its a complete account of the counter offensive with data.
It was the result of almost 3 months of trawling through Russian and Western sites. Do follow and comment.

bala · Post by **bala** » 29 Aug 2023 22:40

Maj Gen G.D. Bakshi take on Russia-Ukraine war. He talked with the Brit armed forces for a proper assessment of the war. They believe that Ukraine is going to lose. He also talks about the Russia-Ukraine war heading towards its decisive phase. He talks about Russia having an upper hand in the war and the possibility of a ceasefire. He believes as the war heads towards its decisive phase, it may also be moving towards a final intensification.

VKumar · Post by **VKumar** » 29 Aug 2023 23:40

Zelensky is seekinh elections as a way to escape

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 30 Aug 2023 04:52

> Russian victory is impossible
> Russian victory is unlikely
> Russia cannot be allowed to win (you are here)
> Russia is winning but at what cost?
> Russian victory was inevitable
> Ukraine was a corrupt hellhole anyways

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 30 Aug 2023 09:10

It’s going the Chad way. Yes indeed Chad, the fictional sounding but very real sub Saharan nation that was a frontline state.

But was the point for Ukraine to win, ever?

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 30 Aug 2023 09:20

Good Question.

Ukraine has created a situation in which Russians will never ever support the west against the PRC. Unless PRC does something monumentally stupid.

Without Russia, PRC cannot be defeated by the west. Unless India decided to become a door mat for the western world. And hell will freeze over before that will happen.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 30 Aug 2023 10:04

vijayk wrote: ↑30 Aug 2023 04:52
> Russian victory is impossible
> Russian victory is unlikely
> Russia cannot be allowed to win (you are here)
> Russia is winning but at what cost?
> Russian victory was inevitable
> Ukraine was a corrupt hellhole anyways

The Telegraph has been as Anti Russia and Putin as the Ukrainian media.
This is big, coming from them.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 30 Aug 2023 10:07

Drone swarm attack at Russia's Pskov airbase 40km from the Estonia border.
4 * IL-76 aircraft destroyed or damaged (big fires seen).

No way the drones had the range to fly from Ukraine. If they came from Estonia it is a dangerous escalation by NATO.

VishnuS · Post by **VishnuS** » 30 Aug 2023 11:13

Deans wrote: ↑30 Aug 2023 10:07 Drone swarm attack at Russia's Pskov airbase 40km from the Estonia border.
4 * IL-76 aircraft destroyed or damaged (big fires seen).

No way the drones had the range to fly from Ukraine. If they came from Estonia it is a dangerous escalation by NATO.

Sir, But Russia is fully occupied with Ukraine and there is no way for Russia to respond!!

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 03 Sep 2023 12:09

YashG wrote: ↑04 Aug 2023 14:41
YashG wrote: ↑25 Jul 2023 09:38 ^^^
On twitterverse there was a video of lancet hitting troops. With someone implying that this is due to 10X reduction in cost + Increase in supplies.
https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1 ... 2725491716

As per the recorded data july saw 136 Lancet strikes vs 22 in beginning of year. Gong by that estimate alone i.e. 7X increase in lancet strikes. All things equal, RU's claim of 10X looks reasonable. There will not be 1:1 increase in strikes, since lancet has limitations of use. If range increases - more use cases will be found.

With increase range/ Swarming capability - lancet will take out the ukrainian assets even in stages but will come at greater cost - unless released by planes at high altitude.

Latest figures for august is 125 lancet strike against 136 in July.

The spike in lancet production is evident but it is not scaling further yet + 10X production may yet to be achieved but 7X ~ looks like it.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 04 Sep 2023 02:50

A lot of reports about Ukraine being able “to breach first line of Russian defences in the south” and the Brits parroting the line that Russia can only do static and passive defences…

If after 2 months of counter offensive this is what they have to show for it then I don’t think Russia is doing too badly at all.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 04 Sep 2023 08:44

Tanaji wrote: ↑04 Sep 2023 02:50 A lot of reports about Ukraine being able “to breach first line of Russian defences in the south” and the Brits parroting the line that Russia can only do static and passive defences…

If after 2 months of counter offensive this is what they have to show for it then I don’t think Russia is doing too badly at all.

There's a difference between reaching (the first line of defense) which Ukraine has done and `breaching' (which Ukraine has not done).
Reaching because a recon group reached the first line of Russian trenches / anti tank ditch, south of Rabotino.

Breaching implies that a permanent gap has been made in the Russian line, large enough for armored formations to go through and exploit and
the breach can be defended against counter attacks.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 04 Sep 2023 11:37

On the other hand Russia has not been able to gain much territory around Kupyansk or regain territory lost in the Counteroffensive. Things are very much on a knife's edge.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 04 Sep 2023 13:59

^^^
Lot of fog of war, according to some urban legends, russia has 100K + troops in north ready to go in. If that is true, russia is just wasting ukrainian armor right now in the zapo cauldron. Ukraine is commiting cz they have to show thr report card by mid - oct. Otherwise Ukraine wudnt be committing more into this cauldron.

OTOH, Advancing on Kupiansk against entrenched ukrainians will be wasting of men/material which might be required in emergency situation in south.

Mukesh.Kumar · Post by **Mukesh.Kumar** » 04 Sep 2023 14:30

As Yashji said "Fog Of War".

Meanwhile in BBC reports- Ukraine's defence minister Oleksii Reznikov dismissed

President Volodymyr Zelensky announced Mr Reznikov's dismissal on Sunday, saying it was time for "new approaches" in the defence ministry.

Rustem Umerov, who runs Ukraine's State Property Fund, has been nominated as Mr Reznikov's successor.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 04 Sep 2023 17:03

Does Renikov have to reimburse the reimburse the Ukrainian Government for USD 7 Million Mansion he bought in rural France for his daughter, or all that more is part of his severance package?

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 04 Sep 2023 23:03

@Deansji , Ukraine is claiming that they have breached, not just reached. Is another matter if they can be believed. Interestingly they have sacked their DM . If the counter offensive was going well he wouldn’t have been sacked.

Or they are cleaning house under American orders…

In other news for the day, the begging never ends: the Chief Bhikari is demanding Gripens from Sweden…

mody · Post by **mody** » 06 Sep 2023 15:25

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/opinion/ ... c081&ei=11

Why Ukraine's Counter Offensive Was Bound to Fail. A long article, but a good read.

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 06 Sep 2023 16:55

mody wrote: ↑06 Sep 2023 15:25 https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/opinion/ ... c081&ei=11

Why Ukraine's Counter Offensive Was Bound to Fail. A long article, but a good read.

Very good one. Thanks for posting.

" “They were just waiting for us…prepared positions everywhere. It was a wall of steel. It was horrendous.”".. this line sums up the ukies counter offensive effort.

The Russian military would likely emerge as one of the deadliest and nimble war fighting machines on the planet having faced down the technological might of the western militaries and having a vastly updated nuclear arsenal

Avid · Post by **Avid** » 06 Sep 2023 21:27

bala wrote: ↑29 Aug 2023 22:40 Maj Gen G.D. Bakshi take on Russia-Ukraine war. He talked with the Brit armed forces for a proper assessment of the war. They believe that Ukraine is going to lose. He also talks about the Russia-Ukraine war heading towards its decisive phase. He talks about Russia having an upper hand in the war and the possibility of a ceasefire. He believes as the war heads towards its decisive phase, it may also be moving towards a final intensification.
....

John Mearsheimer's analysis of the war and counteroffensive, with some of the actual tactical/operational details filled in by Maj Gen Bakshi, creates the most holistic picture of the happenings and what is to happen.
https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/bound-to-lose

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 06 Sep 2023 21:37

U.S. Air Force conducts test launch of unarmed Minuteman III ICBM from California
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-air-for ... alifornia/

bala · Post by **bala** » 07 Sep 2023 22:55

Ukraine is in shambles as Russia destroys offensive.

Ukraine's offensive has turned into CHAOS for the Collective West and the future does not look bright as Russia continues its march to victory. Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian armed forces have lost up to 800 military and several dozen combat systems, including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers and artillery. The Ukrainian army is experiencing a significant lack of manpower and equipment even in the main directions of the so-called counteroffensive.

bala · Post by **bala** » 08 Sep 2023 09:42

Major General G. D. Bakshi explains what happened in Ukraine's counter-offensive against Russia and why it failed. Tanks of Challengers and leopards were hammered by the Russians using Helo Ka-52. Ukraine used drones and a counter-offensive on the Russian artillery. This did not make any headway. Americans gave 2 million 155mm ammunition to Ukraine. Heavy Anti-aircraft has prevented any aerial bombardment. 44 F-16s might join Ukraine's fight next year, currently Ukrainians are being trained. The Sergey Surovikin line of defense is holding up well for the Russians. Manpower for Ukraine is waning and their reserves are being held back. Inflation is raging in Euro nations. Russian economy is holding up well and 1.8% growth is possible for this year. North Korea and China (receivers of Russian oil and gas) are conduits for unending supply of common goods and weapons for Russia.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 08 Sep 2023 15:49

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 08 Sep 2023 15:51

Why does the US Govt need starlink, they should have enough Assets?

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 08 Sep 2023 16:26

Starlink terminals are cheaper. Also they know Russia will try to hack and jam the network. Better let them try all that on starlink than regular US comms assets that are much more widely used all across the world.

Last year, Ukr and US DoD refused to pay some 7 M$ or so for Starlink services and that pissed off Musk and though he supported Ukr initially like many well meaning folks would do against any "unprovoked illegal invasion", and offered them starlink terminals to use. But this episode and the entitled BS of Ukr foreign ministry made him pause and take a good look at whats going on. He quickly saw thru the propaganda and realised whats going on, he is now against supporting this war.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 08 Sep 2023 17:11

Cyrano wrote: ↑08 Sep 2023 16:26 Starlink terminals are cheaper. Also they know Russia will try to hack and jam the network. Better let them try all that on starlink than regular US comms assets that are much more widely used all across the world.

Last year, Ukr and US DoD refused to pay some 7 M$ or so for Starlink services and that pissed off Musk and though he supported Ukr initially like many well meaning folks would do against any "unprovoked illegal invasion", and offered them starlink terminals to use. But this episode and the entitled BS of Ukr foreign ministry made him pause and take a good look at whats going on. He quickly saw thru the propaganda and realised whats going on, he is now against supporting this war.

Cyranoji, musk has opinions but in business he is guided by what makes him more money or aligns with his own corporate interests. His decision to support or oppose the war will be based on business interests. So whether he sees through the western agenda or not is a moot point. It doesnt matter.

Ordinary junta is to be fooled and musk does it too - he came on twitter and said twitter will pay for legal fee for anyone wronged by their own company while he wronged many in his own company. He even didnt even pay a dime for someone who owned @x handle on twitter - he just confiscated the handle without compensation.

Take musk seriously but dont expect him to look beyond his interest, or assign a morale to his actions. There is none, its just business - which is not bad btw.

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 08 Sep 2023 17:27

Cyrano wrote: ↑08 Sep 2023 16:26 . take a good look at whats going on. He quickly saw thru the propaganda and realised whats going on, he is now against supporting this war.

anyone taking a good look at the ukraine war , will come to the same conclusion !! .. Talk about hypocrisy of west European politicians .. they have been feeding on narratives of US state dept and have become delusional to the point they cant see what is right in front of their noses.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 13 Sep 2023 23:10

British cruise missiles were used in significant Ukrainian attack on Russian submarine
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-stri ... e-12960336

Avid · Post by **Avid** » 14 Sep 2023 20:37

Ukraine is claiming to have destroyed a S400 system in Crimea.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66805897

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 15 Sep 2023 09:59

The best blog on the Ukraine war I have read:

simplicius76.substack.com

He posts once a week on Ukraine and related geopolitics. I find it very detailed and fairly unbaised.
Some others:

https://mearsheimer.substack.com/ (Prof John Mearsheimer. A pro Russia tilt, but he has got Ukraine right since 2014)
https://bigserge.substack.com/ (the best blog by a Russian in English. Good analysis of battles).

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 15 Sep 2023 10:03

Avid wrote: ↑14 Sep 2023 20:37 Ukraine is claiming to have destroyed a S400 system in Crimea.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66805897

One launcher hit (of either a S-300 or 400). More specifically a TEL (transporter, erector, launcher).
A S-400 system comprises a command centre, radars, launchers and missiles for those launchers.

If you send enough drones and missiles (back up by NATOs electronic warfare) any anti aircraft system will be hit, which is what happened
(same with the hit on 2 ships in the dry dock).

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 15 Sep 2023 10:17

IndraD wrote: ↑13 Sep 2023 23:10 British cruise missiles were used in significant Ukrainian attack on Russian submarine
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-stri ... e-12960336

Some perhaps relevant information for us here. The Storm Shadow missiles used here are the same as the SCALP we got along with our Rafales. The Russians say 10 were fired out of which 7 got intercepted. So hypothetically (assuming they aren't lying) if we are dealing with a similar Chinese air-defence setup this is roughly the ratio we might see as well.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 15 Sep 2023 10:55

Deans wrote: ↑15 Sep 2023 10:03
Avid wrote: ↑14 Sep 2023 20:37 Ukraine is claiming to have destroyed a S400 system in Crimea.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66805897
One launcher hit (of either a S-300 or 400). More specifically a TEL (transporter, erector, launcher).
A S-400 system comprises a command centre, radars, launchers and missiles for those launchers.

If you send enough drones and missiles (back up by NATOs electronic warfare) any anti aircraft system will be hit, which is what happened
(same with the hit on 2 ships in the dry dock).

Just like Patriots, Nasams, Samp-T, IRIS-T systems launchers get taken out, the Israeli's will also take out some Russian Buk Launchers but will never disclose how many missiles they fired against it.

Funny how losses in Ukraine of Western equipment is completely being blacked out. Patriots/ SamP T, Scalp, Storm Shadow are all limited supplies- NATO has been going all in this war, while trying to minimize their H&D. Only thing left is Tomohawk cruise missiles, F-35's. I am sure the Chinese are also supplying the Russians with whatever they need , to keep in the fight.

USA is somehow I feel is putting the European defense industry under the bus while keeping their MIC intact.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 15 Sep 2023 12:48

Entry of NK's arsenal (is not as low consequence as I imagined) if it does might be able to shift the pitstops on ground.

Some of their +50/+100 Km artillery will be very useful - if comes in enough numbers and IS accurate ( I doubt this very very much). Lobbing anything at those ranges if not accurate is total waste.

So two variables that will start to play in November - NK's weapons + some reserves that are not yet committed ( my basis for uncomitted reserves is a DIA's assessment that majority of russian reserves are on line 2 & 3. I do not think Ukraine will be able to breach line 2 and 3.

+ some urban legends that 100K + men are in north doing some counter off preps in winters.

srai · Post by **srai** » 16 Sep 2023 04:16

Drones … and more drones. Cheap and effective. War has moved beyond the frontlines. Lasting psychological impact.

Enhancements with AI on its way. Poor old infantry and armored vehicles and military equipment (far beyond the frontlines).

Robots in warfare not too far

bala · Post by **bala** » 18 Sep 2023 10:31

Russia bombs Kharkiv's Armoured Vehicle Repair plant. Ka-52 were used.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 19 Sep 2023 13:35

My analysis of Russian casualties in my latest blog post.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2023/09/uk ... ights.html

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 19 Sep 2023 19:16

Well-researched article:

Hyping Ukraine Counteroffensive, US Press Chose Propaganda Over Journalism

https://fair.org/home/hyping-ukraine-co ... ournalism/