Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

[RaviB]

I therefore take a different view. There are other domestic issues that would be potentially more inflammable than a war with India and more certain of achieving the aims of deposing XJP. Besides, the domestic situation will only get worse as XJP steadily loses control. It can also happen that a totalitarian like XJP may decide to go to war with India in desperation to save himself thinking that it would be a low-hanging fruit that would bolster his chances. The echo-chamber of the PSC & CMC might lead him down the garden path. But, that's an entirely different matter.

Either way, war is on the horizon.

I would question these points. Xi is more in control right now than ever before. He is like Mao at his strongest. Mao even had put Deng under house arrest and had his wife and favourites designated to take over. The "gang of four" died in a plane crash and then Deng moved in.

The control of Xi on the party is stronger than ever because he managed to get rid of all possible opponents. The party has gotten a lot more unpopular since Zero Covid, cutting of pensions, mass unemployment, drop in housing prices (and family wealth) etc. However, they don't have to be popular, just powerful. They still have full control of the Peoples Armed Police and PLA, so the public is not a serious threat to the party.

Even a broad skirmish along the India-Tibet border like 1962 would not really gain much popularity for the party. It will at best be a lollypop for public consumption, if they win. The majority of the population doesn't even know that PLA is not in full control of the territories shown on their maps. Taiwan is the real big fancy dream the public has been offered for decades. If it is really a make or break situation for the party, then Taiwan it will be.

Since he has surrounded himself with yes men, I agree that the echo chamber might lead to a major miscalculation. But based on the pattern, Xi is not a politician trying to get popularity in a pragmatic way. He is a delusional great leader who wants to do great things and rejuvenate the Chinese people, so will probably go for reuniting the motherland in a grand way. Hong Kong was the first step, Taiwan is next, there is a pattern emerging

[bala]

Xi is more in control right now than ever before.

This is an illusion. The rocket force of the PLA, the most potent arm was headed by someone who leaked stuff (his kid is in the US). Xi is now paranoid, he is looking for traitors all over the place. In fact he has an ongoing appeal to his army to watch for traitors and turn them in. The more you think you have control, the more the cracks appear larger and larger. He is under tremendous pressure to show something positive for his nation which is reeling under worldwide distrust after covid/kungflu and of course the retraction of chinese economy/global trade. When a leader is cornered then irrational behavior takes over and he may resort to crazy adventures including attacking India. Taiwan attack is becoming next to impossible, his top staff have advised him against such a debacle.

[SSridhar]

I would question these points. Xi is more in control right now than ever before. He is like Mao at his strongest. Mao even had put Deng under house arrest and had his wife and favourites designated to take over. The "gang of four" died in a plane crash and then Deng moved in. . . the public is not a serious threat to the party.

Mao, like any dictator, had his many moments of anxiety when even close and powerful colleagues criticized him badly. Peng Dehuai, Liu Shaoqi, Lin Biao et al fall in that category. Deng was junior compared to them (he is considered Second Generation, coming from anti-Japanese War, not Long March like the first generation). This happened because of Mao's disastrous 'Great Leap Forward' which led to a famine and death of several millions. Many of Mao's speeches were not even published immediately by the Propaganda Deptt. which indicated displeasure within CPC. Under CPC's scheme of converting the country to Marxist-Leninist ideology, the intellectuals were the last 'class' to be 'rectified' in the latter half of 1950. While in early 1957, Mao famously said 'Let a Hundred Flowers Bloom and a Hundred Schools of Thought Contend', which was disliked within the CPC, he was forced to retract it in late 1957 and repression was unleashed. It is history that Mao was severely criticized within CPC for the 'Hundred Flowers' campaign. He ultimately had to give up decision making executive powers for some time. In the 8th CPC Congress it was Liu Shaoqi, the heir apparent, who presented the work report. There was even a suggestion to make Mao the Honarary Chairman and retire him. Indeed, in c. 1959, Liu Shaoqi became the Chairman of the Republic. That was the reason Mao launched the Cultural Revolution to attack his own party and weed out his enemies. Of course, he later eliminated Lin Biao & Liu Shaoqi, incarcerated XJP's father, the Red Guards made XJP's step-sister commit suicide, banished Deng to 'rectification' (he came back into reckoning much later at the recommendation of Zhou en-Lai), Zhou en-Lai's daughter was killed and all that happened. The protests against Mao did not come from the masses. They accepted meekly their fate. The opposition came from close friends who had taken part in the Long March. Lin Biao was perhaps a more charismatic military leader than Mao claimed himself to be.

In the present case too, I am not saying that the masses would revolt and dislodge XJP from power. There can be a clique, disgruntled elements withing PSC or the Central Committee that cannot take it anymore as they see China being undermined on all sides by XJP's policies. The Heavens may suddenly decide that XJP has lost their mandate. But, certainly, mass protests against Zero-Covid, especially across Universities, led to its revocation. University protests painfully remind Chinese leaders of 1989.

The control of Xi on the party is stronger than ever because he managed to get rid of all possible opponents.

That is what countless dictators and totalitarians, before XJP, thought too until the dreaded D-Day dawned on them without much notice.

Even a broad skirmish along the India-Tibet border like 1962 would not really gain much popularity for the party. It will at best be a lollypop for public consumption, if they win. The majority of the population doesn't even know that PLA is not in full control of the territories shown on their maps. Taiwan is the real big fancy dream the public has been offered for decades. If it is really a make or break situation for the party, then Taiwan it will be.

Of course, how many within India would have known about Galwan or Depsang or Pangong Tso before May 2020 is very moot. But once the conflagration flared, the nationalistic fervour took centre stage. Mind you, this is in a country where the State is not actively encouraging such things as it happens in China. Taiwan is the big cake no doubt, but XJP knows his limitations at present, even without this irreversible economic slowdown, West's sanctions etc.

[SSridhar]

Xi is more in control right now than ever before.

This is an illusion. <snip> When a leader is cornered then irrational behavior takes over and he may resort to crazy adventures including attacking India. Taiwan attack is becoming next to impossible, his top staff have advised him against such a debacle.

I agree

[Larry Walker]

Problem with attacking Taiwan is that once it is started, it can only stop at re-unification. Anything short of it will spell doom for CCP and Xi. On the other hand, a border war with India is much more preferable. Away from main populace and at anytime ceasefire can be sought while painting it to the local Hans as a lesson taught to India.

[krithivas]

Rumors are true when denied (specifically PRC).

'All Hands Lost’: China ‘Might’ Have Lost A Stealth Nuclear Attack Submarine With?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/al ... f48c&ei=36

[NRao]

[bala]

A peek into China: Rural and urban divide is huge (hukou rules). Disposable income is way down, so is consumption. Trade is dropping sharply, global supply chain is slowing down due to inflation in EU and US. Most companies in US are wanting to reduce China exposure. So do the EU companies. China factory activity fell back to contraction according to reports. GuangDong and Henan the main manufacturing hubs output are down.

Chinese govt is urging people to spend, but people don't have the money to spend. 65% of chinese households are in debt due to mortgage, consumer, credit card loans. Many rich Chinese are going outside of China to invest in real estate, stocks/bonds, in other words the Chinese people are downgraded China. Foreign investors in China are pulling out in haste. Even a stimulus by Chinese Govt is not going to work. The nation of China is highly polluted. There is increasing desertification.

[ramana]

This is an illusion. <snip> When a leader is cornered then irrational behavior takes over and he may resort to crazy adventures including attacking India. Taiwan attack is becoming next to impossible, his top staff have advised him against such a debacle.

I agree

Hence one of Sun Tzu dictum is not to corner an opponent on dangerous ground.

[SSridhar]

Yes ramana, as Chairman Mao also used to say, 'Give him an escape path'.

Unfortunately for XJP and his PLA, Ladakh has turned out to be a very dangerous ground too. India is not willing to take the escape path and the present Chairman is perplexed what to do wth the failure of following his hero's dictum !

One of the many reasons for the new cartographic aggression is this frustration.

[bala]

I would caution against using Sun Tzu for Ladakh. This area and others around India are part of the nibbling strategy of China, not exactly cornering them. They want to give headache to all their neighbors, including India and Russia (lately by their maps). China is really cornered in terms of their economic muscle, the rapid degradation happens when small changes are introduced. The US (and EU) withdrawing from China is a body blow that destablizes china enormously. They have to act in measured terms on that front, otherwise the impending internal strife could become a nightmare.

[ramana]

Twenty years ago I wrote in BRM, that China is an Economic threat. And it's proving right that put barriers on the economic front it will get contained and deflate.
The US has been propping up Shanghai Stats to scare India into signing four-letter treaties.

[SSridhar]

ramana, two things.

Firstly, the collapse of China is not yet a done deal. It is a WiP, has just visibly started, and everyone must contribute towards that as Gen. Schwarzkopf said on another occasion regarding the dispatch of the Iraqi troops to their Maker. In early 2000s, I remember reading Gordon G Chang's 'The Coming Collapse of China'. I am re-reading it now. He was not off the mark, but it has taken two more decades for the process to set in and it won't be complete for quite a while provided all the stars align, the Heaven agrees, and we barbarians are relentless in our objective vis-a-vis China. So, India has to be cautious. A dying star can indeed be very violent.

Secondly, smaller states (and we are indeed one militarily, economically & diplomatically when compared to China up until now; this will change shortly but not yet) do seek alliances, partnerships and whatever else we call them in order to protect themselves. There is nothing wrong or shameful with that approach. Japan did that during the Meiji period, China did that during the Mao/Deng period and when the dividends from the relationship started diminishing, they parted ways and even attack(ed) the benefactor(s). These Indo-US alphabet-soups have not run out of steam and seem to be helping India at the moment.

[ramana]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/ ... -of-nation

Zeng Qinghong, a former vice president who played an important role in Xi Jinping's rise to power, is now at the forefront of a group of party elders checking Xi. (Nikkei montage/Source photos by Yusuke Hinata, Ken Kobayashi and Kyodo)
China up close
Analysis: Xi reprimanded by elders at Beidaihe over direction of nation

G20 absence hints at turmoil in Chinese domestic politics
KATSUJI NAKAZAWA, Nikkei senior staff writerSeptember 5, 2023 20:42 JST

Katsuji Nakazawa is a Tokyo-based senior staff and editorial writer at Nikkei. He spent seven years in China as a correspondent and later as China bureau chief. He was the 2014 recipient of the Vaughn-Ueda International Journalist prize.

There are signs of turmoil in Chinese domestic politics.

On Monday, it was announced that President Xi Jinping will not attend an upcoming summit of the Group of 20 major economies in India. Premier Li Qiang will take his place.

This will be the first time that Xi has skipped a G20 summit, to which he has consistently attached importance as China's top leader.

A precursor seems to have been this summer's Beidaihe meeting, the annual get-together of incumbent and retired leaders of the Chinese Communist Party at the seaside resort of Beidaihe, Hebei Province.

The informal discussions are never officially disclosed, but details of this year's closed-door talks have begun to emerge. In short, the conclave had a significantly different feel from the previous 10 Beidaihe meetings that have taken place since Xi became general secretary of the party in 2012.

Sources said that at this year's gathering, a group of retired party elders reprimanded the top leader in ways they had not until now. Xi later expressed his frustration to his closest aides, according to the information gathered.
Xi Jinping appears to be avoiding international conferences where China's slowing economy might be brought up for discussion. © Reuters

This Beidaihe meeting was held without the presence of the most prominent of party elders. Former President Jiang Zemin died at the age of 96 last November, and Xi's immediate predecessor, Hu Jintao, now 80, has seldom been seen since being unceremoniously escorted out of the Great Hall of the People at the party's national congress last October.

These absences might have helped create a desirable situation for Xi. But the matter was not that simple.

China today is not in the best shape. Its economy is receding in ways unseen since "reform and opening-up" began in the late 1970s. The real estate sector is in shambles, symbolized by the struggles of major developer Evergrande Group. The youth unemployment rate deteriorated to such an extent that Chinese authorities this summer stopped releasing figures.

The military is mired in commotion in the wake of two top Rocket Force generals being purged, the firings coming to light in July.

Foreign Minister Qin Gang has been removed from that post for unknown reasons, with suspicions continuing to ripple through the ministry.

The turmoil has worried many of the elders who ran the party during China's economic ascent.

Sources said that ahead of Beidaihe, party elders convened their own meeting to summarize their opinions before conveying them to the current leaders. The meeting was likely held in the suburbs of Beijing.

Afterward, only several of these elders traveled to Beidaihe to convey their consensus to the current leaders. The face-to-face meeting with the current leaders, including Xi, took place on a single day, the sources said.

The gist of the message was that if the political, economic and social turmoil continues without any effective countermeasures being taken, the party could lose public support, posing a threat to its rule.

We cannot have more turmoil, the elders pointed out.

The central figure of the elders was Zeng Qinghong, a former vice president and one of the closest aides to the late former President Jiang.
Then-President Jiang Zemin, left, is greeted by his right-hand man Zeng Qinghong during a send-off ceremony in Beijing on October 22, 2002. © Reuters

Zeng played the most important role in paving the way for Xi, once a little-known figure, to quickly take the helm of the party.

Now 84, Zeng remains influential within the party and enjoys a wide network of personal connections. Some say that in the wake of Jiang's death, Zeng has a bigger role to play.

Thus Xi's rough summer began. After receiving the unexpectedly harsh criticism from the elders, Xi huddled with close aides he has promoted to key posts. According to information that has begun to trickle out, Xi vented his frustration, pointing fingers at his three predecessors -- Deng Xiaoping, Jiang and Hu.

"All the issues that were left by the previous three leaders are on my shoulders" he is believed to have said. "I've spent the last decade tackling them but they remain unresolved. Am I to blame?"

He also is believed to have told his aides that it was now their job to resolve these leftover issues.

The venting left his aides shaken, especially Premier Li, No. 2 in the party hierarchy.
Premier Li Qiang will stand in for President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in New Delhi on September 9-10.

Li is in charge of an economy that is facing significant headwinds.

One of those headwinds is the country's deteriorating relations with much of the outside world. Trade is sluggish, and foreign investment in the country is declining sharply.

Xi's decision to forgo the upcoming G20 summit in India is likely an attempt to avoid losing face.

There is a possibility that China's economy, and how it weighs on the global economy, might be discussed. Premier Li, who is in charge of China's economy, should travel to India to address these concerns, the inner circle has likely concluded.

But the skipping of the G20 follows another no-show. In late August, shortly after the Beidaihe meeting ended, Xi failed to appear at a business forum held on the sidelines of the BRICS summit involving Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, held in South Africa. His speech was read out by Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao.

One take is that Xi did not attend the forum because there were concerns that he might be asked direct questions about the poor performance of the Chinese economy.
The lack of desire on both sides to make major compromises is making it difficult for President Xi Jinping to visit U.S. counterpart Joe Biden in San Francisco in November. © Reuters

Another major factor behind Xi's G20 absence is that no breakthrough in stalled relations with the U.S. appears on the horizon. While there is hope in Washington that the visit to China by U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo late last month served as one step toward a more stable relationship, this is not how the Chinese side sees it.

From Beijing's standpoint, Raimondo came bearing no gifts.

With neither the U.S. nor China able to make major concessions on important economic issues, it is difficult for Xi to justify a friendly meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden. Under the current circumstances, it is unclear whether Xi will be able to travel to the U.S. in November for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in San Francisco. His absence from that gathering would raise even more red flags.

The butterfly effect of Chinese politics never ceases to amaze. On Thursday, days after the Beidaihe meeting is thought to have closed, former Premier Li Keqiang made his first public appearance since being forced to retire in March.

The former No. 2 was smiling broadly when he appeared at the World Heritage Mogao Caves, also known as the Caves of the Thousand Buddhas, along the ancient Silk Road in Gansu province.

Then-Premier Li Keqiang lays a wreath at a statue of Deng Xiaoping in Shenzhen, China, in August 2022. (Screenshot from CCTV)

He was greeted by fans who chanted "Ni hao [hello], premier! Ni hao!"

Li Qiang has since taken over as premier and will be heading to the G20 summit in India in Xi's stead. But for the people at the caves, Li Keqiang was still very much their premier.

The video of Li Keqiang's appearance was widely dispersed on Chinese social media before being deleted by authorities.

It was a symbolic event. Li Keqiang is still a popular politician, and the cheers for him at the World Heritage site were not fake.

Now retired, Li Keqiang certainly was at the gathering of elders before the Beidaihe meeting.

Xi, the man who pushed Li into retirement, was absent from public view for many days this summer, busy having to address the harsh reprimand from the elders.

[vimal]

^^ What's with the sudden flood of bad news from China everywhere? Is the West using it's combined might to take down the dragon a notch below. They cannot replace the dragon instantly but will be able to create a competitor to contain it.

[ramana]

Troubles within, troubles without.
Popular Chinese saying

[ramana]

Also no clear report.on the recent heavy floods situation in China.

[bala]

Here is YT on the floods in China. Looks worse than any 3rd world nation.



BTW, in Heibei district a unit of the PLA got wiped out, several dead. Some official opened flood gates to prevent collapse, but forgot to notify the PLA unit.

[Cyrano]

Xi is the new Imran! Long live Xi !!

China will soon be the new Pakistan.

[bala]

XI's follies and the way ahead. XI has ruined his own chinese military.

[ramana]

After Qin Gang was removed as Foreign Minister, now X said Gen Li Shangfu , the Defence Minister had disappeared

https://twitter.com/jenniferzeng97/stat ... 99754?s=20

[RaviB]

The Chinese view of India-China rivalry by Lan Jianxue

Today’s post is a summary of a recent piece by Lan Jianxue (蓝建学), the director of the department for Asia-Pacific Studies at the Beijing-based China Institute of International Studies (CIIS) – one of China’s top think tanks.

Source: https://www.sinification.com/p/growing- ... -as-viewed

Summary of the article

1. Modi’s government has abandoned India’s cautious approach to foreign policy and has turned towards Realpolitik and an increasingly anti-China stance.

2. The Sino-Indian border clash of 2020, which plunged relations to their lowest point in over thirty years, was the “inevitable consequence” of this shift.

3. Since then, New Delhi has launched a “government-wide”, “comprehensive” and “vengeful” strategy against Beijing that pursues “de-sinicisation” and decoupling from China in the political, economic, military and societal spheres.

4. The negative impact that India is now having on some of China’s core interests (e.g. Taiwan, Tibet, the South China Sea) and on the Indo-Pacific region as a whole is becoming increasingly obvious.

5. India currently has four key international objectives: 1. assuming the role of a global power; 2. becoming the leader of the Global South; 3. acting as the bridge between West and South; 4. asserting its hegemonic influence over the Indian subcontinent and its surrounding seas.

6. India is also trying to thwart China’s rising influence within multilateral platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), BRICS or the G20, and is increasingly aligning itself with positions held by the West.

7. With US-China rivalry rising, New Delhi is keen to exploit these divisions for its own economic and geopolitical benefit. It has therefore become a willing participant in Washington’s containment strategy towards China.

8. As a result, part of India’s policymaking elite now see maintaining a certain amount of tension with Beijing as a way of deepening their ties with Washington and, more generally, the West.

9. Tensions between Beijing and New Delhi are set to grow and the “emotional volatility” of both Indian and Chinese public opinion will remain “one of the major challenges facing India-China relations” for years to come.

10. Nevertheless, both countries still have an interest in stabilising relations with one another so as not to jeopardise their own development goals. To do so, Lan recommends “expanding the space for strategic ambiguity” that can be found between “hostile confrontation” and the dwindling areas of Sino-Indian “friendly cooperation”.

The conclusions of Lan are interesting

There is a [also] growing mismatch between India's strategic interests and those of its business community, and a clear lack of consensus within the Indian government on how to deal with the Sino-Indian border issue. Unlike India's Ministry of Defence or Ministry of External Affairs, its Ministries of Commerce, Railways and Science and Technology are reluctant to undermine relations with China due to economic interests.”

This is interesting. If the Chinese see a lack of consensus, they will try to exploit it. Their hopes are pinned on the incompetence and stupidity of Rahul to reverse the foreign policy changes in their favour. They want and hope to get another Nehru.

“In future, China will go through a process of ‘rediscovering India’. It must abandon its stereotypical impression of, and set ways of thinking about, India and make appropriate adjustments to its long-standing strategic thinking and policies towards it.”

This is interesting because it suggests there is a rethink going on in China's foreign policy community and they might want to adjust relations with India, if Xi allows it.

“China and India need to explore new modes of interaction in this new era. Against the backdrop of [their] escalating rivalry, China and India [need to] preserve or tap into common or shared interests and expand the space for strategic ambiguity [战略模糊空间] between friendly cooperation and hostile confrontation.”

This basically suggests that the relations can only be adjusted to a small extent but in the long term, the rivalry is deep and structurally inevitable.

[Cyrano]

Thanks RaviB ji.
The article is a candid admission that CCP is rattled by the unexpected response of Bharat to Glawan arm twisting. Its compounded by Bharat's rapid strides on the world stage and any further moves or escalation will put China back totally into the "unreliable communist dictatorship" bucket that it has fought so hard for decades to coverup with market economics and B&RI makeover. That would not only justify US & the West's antagonistic stand, but also pull the global south countries further away from it, thus hurting its economy further.

There is a [also] growing mismatch between India's strategic interests and those of its business community, and a clear lack of consensus within the Indian government on how to deal with the Sino-Indian border issue. Unlike India's Ministry of Defence or Ministry of External Affairs, its Ministries of Commerce, Railways and Science and Technology are reluctant to undermine relations with China due to economic interests.”

This is to be expected in any open democratic govt where information flows into public domain and policy rationale can be analysed and questioned. Decoupling in a ham-fisted manner if pushed for by one ministry will get a tempering counter push by other ministries who will raise caution flags since there are supply chain linkages that have to be reoriented first. Pharma APIs are a good example. This is not a weakness but a strength, which makes for better decision making overall. Something China & CCP themselves might be very unfamiliar with as a way of functioning.

Will CCP learn any lessons and change their attitude and actions wrt to India? I'm not so hopeful because it means backing down and loss of face on almost every contentious issue, be it the border disputes, military demobilisation, support at UNSC, UN voting against wanted terrorists or Pak policy or trade agreements. The longer they take the more Bharat will decouple and there will be lesser incentive for us to make concessions.

[ramana]

The author sets it up as a zero-sum game between India and China when India does not play that game.
Further, it is amply clear that primarily internal problems in Beijing that kept XJP from attending G-20.
And to be frank, XJP could not come until the border incursions are resolved.
Despite all the Sun Tzu and Zhuge Lang, XJP has not learned the basic strategy of ensuring peace at the borders with neighbors while he forays internationally.
As an example till Britain and France resolved their issues by signing the Entente Cordiale, they were unable to broaden their footprint.
Until the US resolved its issues with Canada in the 1920s it could not venture into Europe und so weiter.

[ramana]

Amidst the recent purge in China of Qin Gang, Li Shangfu, and Wang Yi wonder about Wang Huning.
What's the news about him?

[isubodh]

The author sets it up as a zero-sum game between India and China when India does not play that game.
Further, it is amply clear that primarily internal problems in Beijing that kept XJP from attending G-20.
And to be frank, XJP could not come until the border incursions are resolved.
Despite all the Sun Tzu and Zhuge Lang, XJP has not learned the basic strategy of ensuring peace at the borders with neighbors while he forays internationally.
As an example till Britain and France resolved their issues by signing the Entente Cordiale, they were unable to broaden their footprint.
Until the US resolved its issues with Canada in the 1920s it could not venture into Europe und so weiter.

And that would equally apply to Bharat too, isn't it.

[SSridhar]

Amidst the recent purge in China of Qin Gang, Li Shangfu, and Wang Yi wonder about Wang Huning.
What's the news about him?

He is continuing, AFAIK. XJP might need his services more now, perhaps.

[Anujan]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/15/worl ... angfu.html

China Is Investigating Its Defense Minister, U.S. Officials Say

China’s defense minister, Gen. Li Shangfu, has been placed under investigation, according to two U.S. officials, fueling speculation about further upheaval in the military after the abrupt removal of two top commanders in charge of the country’s nuclear force.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/sp ... r-AA1gLkXK

Speculation grows over whereabouts of China’s Defense Minister Li Shangfu

Asked about Li’s situation at a regular news briefing Friday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said “I’m not aware of the situation.”

Questions over Li’s whereabouts follow the unexplained disappearance of Qin Gang, who was dramatically ousted as China’s foreign minister in late July after vanishing from public view for a month.

[ramana]

The author sets it up as a zero-sum game between India and China when India does not play that game.
Further, it is amply clear that primarily internal problems in Beijing that kept XJP from attending G-20.
And to be frank, XJP could not come until the border incursions are resolved.
Despite all the Sun Tzu and Zhuge Lang, XJP has not learned the basic strategy of ensuring peace at the borders with neighbors while he forays internationally.
As an example till Britain and France resolved their issues by signing the Entente Cordiale, they were unable to broaden their footprint.
Until the US resolved its issues with Canada in the 1920s it could not venture into Europe und so weiter.

And that would equally apply to Bharat too, isn't it.

What do you mean? We can't extract what you want to say if you don't say.

[Pratyush]

He is saying that just as PRC cannot become a global power, unless it settles it's disputes with the neighbouring countries.

We also needs to settle disputes with our neighbours before we become a global power.

But that equivalence ignores a very basic point about the difference between Indian disputes and PRC disputes.

1) Only the PRC has the ability to seriously damage India.

2) India and PRC are anyways going to compete on the global stage.

3) Nither, Japanese or the Americans are not against India right now, nor are they likely to be against India over the next 30 years.

4) the Indian subcontinent wasn't always having this political map. It's not necessary that this map will continue to exist 50 years from now.

[SSridhar]

Besides, there is a fundamental difference in border disputes between India and China with their neighbours.

India's border disputes are foisted upon it while China's border disputes are its own making coming as they do from its greed, fabrication of history, vague memories and imperial hubris such as 'Whatever the Emperor Sees are His'. Simply the difference between a Status-quoist & a Revisionist state

[SSridhar]

IMO, if there was a power struggle or factional feud, that should have happened during the meeting at Beidaihe several weeks before the 20th Congress when the new positions and inductees would have been discussed among the very top. <snip>

Therefore, it has got to be a really solid reason for his removal. It is either some moral turpitude which has caused serious problems or poor performance or insubordination or even treachery. Coincidentally, the disappearance happened within a week of Blinken's visit to China.

'China ousted its foreign minister Qin Gang over affair in US' - Bloomberg/ToI

China removed former Foreign Minister Qin Gang from the post after an investigation concluded he’d conducted an affair and fathered a child while serving as US ambassador, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Top officials were told in August that a Communist Party inquiry into Qin uncovered “lifestyle issues,” the newspaper reported Tuesday, citing people familiar with the situation that it didn’t describe. That phrase usually means sexual misbehavior of some type in the parlance of Chinese officialdom.

Two of the people said the affair led to the birth of a child in the US. The probe, with Qin’s assistance, is now focusing on whether or not the affair compromised national security.

[ramana]

These types of stories are nandi droppings.
Unless there is a National security angle action won't be taken.
In the past six months, China has been racked by stories of sackings of military personnel.
Qin Gang ouster could also be related to that.

[ramana]

There is a fundamental flaw in mainland China's politics.
Throughout history, Chinese state stability was only under firm autocrats.
A cursory or superficial reading will call the First Emperor Qin Huang Di or Qin Shi Huang, an autocrat and cruel ruler. Same with Mao Zedong.
However, due to the structure of the Confucious society with the Emperor at the top, he has to be firm to stop the million mutinies.
Then you have SunTzu's art of war which is basically constant backstabbing under the guise of strategy.
So rulership in mainland China veers to wards autocracy or results in chaos.
Western ideas of democracy etc. are nice but they don't apply there.
Stability for about four generations was achieved only after the cruel despot had destroyed all opposition!
Then the dynasty cycle starts again under the benevolent ruler.

The Mandate of Heaven concept is essentially people's acceptance of the ruler.
The typical description of the Mandate of Heaven states that under a just ruler:

The first person to declare the concept of the Mandate of Heaven was the Duke of Zhou, who used the concept to justify the overthrow of the Shang Dynasty and the establishment of the Zhou Dynasty under his brother, Zhou Wu. His ''Zhao Announcement'' was recorded in the Book of Documents, one of the key philosophical texts of Confucianism. The Duke of Zhao stated that the successful revolt of the people under the Zhou was a direct result of moral inadequacy under the Shang rule. "For want of the virtue of reverence," the Duke said, ''the mandate in [favor of the Shang] fell prematurely to the ground.'' In his declaration, he also admonished his brother Wu to cultivate reverence, look after the affairs of the people, and regulate his managers to ensure that they were acting according to the proper social order.

Keeping aside the admonition to cultivate reverence, the MOH is to look after the affairs of the people and regulate the managers to ensure they act according to proper social order.

Deng Xiaoping unleashed the four modernizations and along with it many lacunae: the admonition to "regulate managers according to proper social order" was put on the back burner. This led to vast growth in corruption.
The successive rulers: Jiang Zemin, and Hu Jintao kicked the can downstream, and now it's in Xi Jinping's lap. He tackled it head on and anti-corruption was a major crusade.
An autocratic ruler faces continuous under tow to replace him. We should see the many purges of different military leaders in that light.

From various estimates, China spends a lot on internal security for after all the Chinese adage goes" Troubles within, troubles without!"
Add to this is the confrontational approach XJP has chosen with his neighbors and major powers.
If it comes to a shooting war it is the military that suffers the casualties and with Deng's One Child Policy in effect since 1979 it spells societal disaster.

If MOH is lost what are the signs we see? Difficulties are a sign of Heaven's displeasure and the loss of MOH.
A spate of natural disasters: epidemics (Covid), floods (Beijing), fires, earthquakes, and so on.
All these lead to rebellious people.
In addition, XJP also has triggered a trade war with the US and the West.
He faces issues with India after Galwan.
These cause economic stagnation.

Seeing all these XJP will face a choice: 1) Become an autocratic leader like Qin Huang Di, Mao Zedong or 2) step down.
There is no middle ground.

And going by the past history XJP will choose 1).

[Pratyush]

I am curious, how much of what Xi is doing a function of his current position within a communist system and how much is a function of his traumatic experiences during the cultural revolution.

Looking from the outside, there doesn't seem to any difference between an authoritarian Communist leader and a man acting as a result of the cultural revolution and the red guard purges.

[SSridhar]

Qin Gang ouster could also be related to that.

I can only say the usual terse reply of Kamaraj, 'Paarkkalaam'.

[Vayutuvan]

Moved to
viewtopic.php?p=2602029#p2602029

[SSridhar]

Amidst the recent purge in China of Qin Gang, Li Shangfu, and Wang Yi wonder about Wang Huning.
What's the news about him?

He is continuing, AFAIK. XJP might need his services more now, perhaps.

Todays SCMP has this: China’s top political adviser Wang Huning urges support for Xinjiang in education, culture and industry

China’s top political adviser called for more support for the western region of Xinjiang in education, cultural exchanges and cooperation between local cadres and officials from other parts of the country, state media reported on Friday.

Wang Huning, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, the Communist Party’s top decision-making body, and chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, the country’s top advisory body, made the remarks at a biennial work conference on Wednesday, according to official news agency Xinhua.

[ramana]

These types of stories are nandi droppings.
Unless there is a National security angle action won't be taken.
In the past six months, China has been racked by stories of sackings of military personnel.
Qin Gang ouster could also be related to that.

A series of tweets in a military journal

https://twitter.com/wentisung/status/17 ... Dbn6Q&s=19

PLA Daily published a commentary on page 2 (on Sept 22), calling on cadets to purify their social circles.

It added that "hanging out with the wrong friends" (交友不慎) is an important reason why "some leaders" got removed. Speculations soon began to run amok.

[ramana]

SSridhar thanks. Wang is busy.
Another article says he is in charge of Taiwan unification too.
Looks like Master of Renegade Provinces Reunification